WO2016045195A1 - Procédé d'estimation de flux de passagers pour réseau ferroviaire urbain - Google Patents

Procédé d'estimation de flux de passagers pour réseau ferroviaire urbain Download PDF

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WO2016045195A1
WO2016045195A1 PCT/CN2014/093084 CN2014093084W WO2016045195A1 WO 2016045195 A1 WO2016045195 A1 WO 2016045195A1 CN 2014093084 W CN2014093084 W CN 2014093084W WO 2016045195 A1 WO2016045195 A1 WO 2016045195A1
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path
time
station
passenger flow
transfer
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Chinese (zh)
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贾利民
秦勇
于鸿飞
王子洋
赵忠信
曾璐
杜渺
梁平
孙方
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北京交通大学
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16Z—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G16Z99/00—Subject matter not provided for in other main groups of this subclass

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  • the invention relates to a method for estimating passenger flow of a city rail network.
  • the invention realizes the derivation of the rail transit passenger flow for the whole road network.
  • the present invention specifically adopts the following technical solutions: the following steps are included:
  • Step 1 Obtain historical historical passenger flow OD data, and transfer and store the acquired data in a database
  • Step 2 Define the path impedance and the effective path in the road network in the path ratio allocation module, establish a path search algorithm to obtain an effective path between the ODs, and use the utility theory to calculate the multipath selection between the OD pairs by using the impedance theory.
  • the probability of inputting the historical synchronous passenger flow OD data obtained in step 1 to the path ratio distribution module loads the passenger flow in the daily situation and outputs the derivation result of the daily passenger flow.
  • the path impedance calculation method in the path ratio allocation module in step 2 is as follows:
  • running time refers to the time passengers spend on urban rail transit trains. It consists of two parts: interval running time and stop time:
  • T i,j is the running time of station i to station j on path k
  • T s is the stop time of the train passing through the intermediate station
  • the transfer time refers to the time spent by the passenger outside the train of the transfer station. It consists of two parts: transfer time and transfer time.
  • Car time
  • H n is the departure interval of the transfer line n
  • the entry and exit time is:
  • ⁇ is the train full load rate
  • P is the section passenger flow per unit time
  • D is the section transport capacity per unit time
  • n is the number of trains per unit time
  • Y is the vehicle capacity
  • B is the number of trains
  • Y *B is the entire train capacity
  • the congestion degree impedance is:
  • the congestion coefficient on a section of the rail transit network 0, A, B correspond to three levels of congestion coefficient, A is the extra time overhead coefficient in general congestion; B is overcrowded Extra time overhead factor; ⁇ 0 is the full load rate when the number of passengers in the car is equal to the number of seats; when the number of passengers in the car is equal to the capacity, the full load rate is 1;
  • the additional congestion factor is expressed in exponential form:
  • the time of the I station is:
  • T i ⁇ is the occupancy time of the i station
  • ⁇ i is the additional congestion factor of the i station
  • the total time of all stations is:
  • the passenger integrated impedance function is expressed as:
  • the effective path screening method in the path ratio allocation module in step 2 is as follows:
  • nj For all subsequent nodes in p starting from ni, it may be denoted as nj, and the following operations are performed: adding the extended node n'j of nj to the node set N; except for the previous node nj-1 of nj in the path p, Connect an arc from the nj precursor node to its extension node n'j, the weights on the arc remain unchanged, and add these arcs to the arc set A; in addition, if the previous node nj-1 of n in p With the extended node n'j-1, it is also necessary to connect an arc from n'j-1 to n'j, and the weights and arcs (nj-1, nj) have equal weights; the calculation starts from node s to n The shortest path of 'j; update the current shortest path tree, and find that the shortest path between the current extended node t(k)' from the starting node s to the ending node is the
  • the unreasonable path in the K-small path obtained by the path search algorithm does not participate in the distribution of the passenger flow, and generates an effective path set according to the limitation of the operation time of different rail transit lines;
  • the running time of the path is represented by the effective running time of the starting station of the path.
  • the effective operation time of the starting station is the intersection of the first and last shift time of the starting station and the first and last shift time of each transfer station in the path, and the starting time of the starting station is reversed;
  • the unreasonable path in the K-straighed path obtained by the path search algorithm does not participate in the distribution of the passenger flow; the validity test of the path is judged by the travel impedance threshold; assuming that the K-selectable progressive path sets between the two stations are The impedance value of the shortest path If the impedance value of the secondary short path or other shorter short path exceeds a certain range of the travel impedance value of the shortest path, the short path or the second short path is considered unreasonable; it can be reasonably assumed that when When it is small, versus In proportion to When it is large enough, the upper bound of the allowable area of the travel impedance value is fixed; it can be expressed as:
  • the multipath allocation method in the path ratio allocation module in step 2 is as follows:
  • T i f is very close to T 1 f (ie the shortest path impedance value) ), I should be very close to the P i T 1 f, when the impedance in the vicinity of T 1 f, the rate of decrease of the P i is small;
  • the normal distribution is used to describe the passenger's travel path selection behavior.
  • the formula of the normal distribution function is as follows:
  • ⁇ gives the x value of the maximum expected probability, here is 0; ⁇ is a constant whose value will determine the steepness of the normal curve;
  • the passenger flow distribution ratio of the path is calculated by the following formula:
  • the method for deriving the road network passenger flow in the path ratio allocation module in step 2 is as follows:
  • t i refers to the time point when the passenger departs from the O station to reach the i station
  • t O refers to the time when the passenger swipes the card from the O station
  • T ab is the running time of the train in the interval ab, and M is the interval set;
  • T s is the stop time of the train at station S, and N is the station set;
  • the present invention constructs a rapid quantitative estimation method for the number of stations and passengers in the entire network, and fills the gap in the industry.
  • Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method for estimating the passenger flow of the whole road network.
  • Figure 2 is a flow chart of the passenger flow impact analysis method based on the historical passenger flow law.
  • Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method for estimating the passenger flow of the whole road network.
  • Figure 2 is a flow chart of the passenger flow impact analysis method based on the historical passenger flow law. As shown in FIG. 2, the passenger flow state derived from FIG. 1 is combined with the information of the emergency event to filter out the affected passenger flow. After the affected passenger flow is processed according to the redistribution rule, the passenger flow index is counted to obtain the final calculation result.
  • the method includes the following steps:
  • Step 1 Obtain historical historical passenger flow OD data, and transfer and store the acquired data in a database.
  • Step 2 Define the path impedance and the effective path in the road network in the path ratio allocation module, establish a path search algorithm to obtain an effective path between the ODs, and use the utility theory to calculate the multipath selection between the OD pairs by using the impedance theory.
  • the probability of inputting the historical synchronous passenger flow OD data obtained in step 1 to the path ratio distribution module loads the passenger flow in the daily situation and outputs the derivation result of the daily passenger flow.
  • the path impedance calculation method of multi-factor influence in the path ratio allocation module is as follows:
  • the present invention Based on the existing passenger integrated travel impedance calculation method, combined with the psychological process and judgment basis of the actual passenger travel choice, the present invention innovatively conducts passenger classification discussion, and respectively gives the corresponding comprehensive travel impedance calculation method, the corresponding parameters. The acquisition was explained.
  • Running time refers to the time passengers spend on urban rail transit trains. It consists of two parts: interval running time and stop time.
  • T i,j is the running time of station i to station j on path k
  • T s is the stopping time of the train passing through the intermediate station.
  • the transfer time refers to the time spent by the passenger outside the transfer station train. It consists of two parts: transfer travel time and transfer waiting time.
  • T k tr is the total transfer time of the OD kth path from station a to b; The transfer time from the m line to the n line on the path k; The travel time for the transfer from the m line to the n line; The waiting time for the transfer from the m line to the n line; ⁇ 1 is the penalty factor of the transfer time.
  • H n is the departure interval of the transfer line n.
  • a large amount of statistical data shows that passengers arrive at a train interval independent of the train schedule, showing a random normal distribution. For the average waiting time of the overall passenger flow, the value will approach half of the driving interval. .
  • the entry and exit time is:
  • the degree of congestion is an important indicator of travel comfort, reflecting the sensitivity of passengers to congestion and the amplification of passengers' perception of travel time.
  • the congestion degree of the compartment is divided into three levels according to the full load rate.
  • Class 1 is the number of passengers in the train is less than the number of seats. There is no feeling of discomfort at this time; the second level is the number of people in the train between the number of seats and the passengers in the car. At this time, there will be a certain degree of congestion; the third level is the number of people in the train. More than the passenger compartment, the car is extremely crowded and the passengers feel very uncomfortable.
  • ⁇ is the train full load rate
  • P is the passenger flow, usually refers to the section passenger flow per unit time
  • D is the transport capacity, generally refers to the section transport capacity per unit time
  • n is the number of trains per unit time
  • Y is Vehicle capacity
  • B is the number of trains, Y*B is the entire train.
  • ⁇ the congestion coefficient on a section of the rail transit network
  • 0, A, B correspond to three levels of congestion coefficient
  • A is the extra time overhead coefficient in general congestion
  • B is overcrowded Additional time overhead factor.
  • ⁇ 0 is the full load rate when the number of passengers in the car is equal to the number of seats; when the number of passengers in the car is equal to the number of seats, the full load rate is 1.
  • the retention time is also related to the departure interval. It is a function of the additional congestion factor and the departure interval. The form is as follows:
  • the total time of all stations is:
  • the passenger integrated impedance function can be obtained, expressed as:
  • nh the first node in the current path p starting from the first node with an indegree greater than 1, denoted as nh. If the extended node n'h of nh is not in the node set N, then go to 4. Otherwise, find all the nodes behind nh in the path p, and the corresponding extended node is not the first node in N, denoted as ni, turn 5 .
  • nj For all subsequent nodes starting from ni in p, it may be denoted as nj, and the following operations are sequentially performed: adding the extended node n'j of nj to the node set N. Except for the previous node nj-1 of nj in path p, respectively, an arc from the nj precursor node to its extension node n'j is connected, the weights on the arc remain unchanged, and these arcs are added to arc set A. . In addition, if the previous node nj-1 of nj in p has an extended node n'j-1, it is also necessary to connect an arc from n'j-1 to n'j, the weight and the arc (nj-1, nj).
  • the weights are equal. Calculate the shortest path from the start node s to n'j.
  • the operation time of the route can be expressed by the effective operation time of the starting station of the route.
  • the effective operation time of the starting station is the first and last shift time of the starting station and the first and last shift times of the transfer stations in the path are reversed.
  • the impedance value of the shortest path If the impedance value of the secondary short path or other shorter short path exceeds the certain range of the shortest path, the value exceeds a certain range (ie, is greater than When it is considered that the short path or the second short path is unreasonable. Can reasonably assume that when When it is small, versus In proportion to When it is large enough, the upper boundary of the allowable area of the travel resistance value is fixed. It can be expressed as:
  • the multipath allocation method in the path ratio allocation module is as follows:
  • Multipath probability calculation is performed using a time impedance based multipath allocation method.
  • the passenger flow distribution ratio of the path is determined based on the deterministic impedance of each path, that is, the time impedance, according to a certain statistical law and probability distribution model.
  • the effective path assumes 100% of the passenger flow; when the elements of the effective path set are not unique, the problem of how the passenger flow is allocated in each path is generated.
  • T i f is very close to T 1 f (ie the shortest path impedance value) )
  • I should be very close to the P i T 1 f, when the impedance in the vicinity of T 1 f, the rate of decrease P i is small. In other words, passengers are less sensitive to changes in ride time around T 1 f .
  • the proportion of passenger flow assignments of each path can be determined by calculating a utility value (S) in which each path participates in passenger flow sharing.
  • S utility value
  • the path passenger flow allocation utility is related to the extent x of the integrated travel impedance that exceeds the shortest path integrated travel impedance. The integrated travel impedance of the path exceeds the shortest path. The more the integrated travel impedance, the smaller the utility value of the path passenger flow distribution, and the smaller the proportion of the shared OD passenger flow.
  • the path passenger distribution utility value (S) distribution pattern is similar to the normal distribution pattern. Considering that the normal distribution can well meet the above five requirements, and has been widely used in the statistical study of group behavior characteristics, a normal distribution is used to describe the passenger's travel path selection behavior.
  • the formula of the normal distribution function is as follows:
  • ⁇ gives the x value of the maximum expected probability, here is 0; ⁇ is a constant whose value will determine the steepness of the normal curve. Since it is impossible, the weight value T i f is less than the minimum impedance value The path, therefore, only needs to take the positive half of the normal distribution curve x ⁇ ⁇ . It can be considered that the parameter ⁇ is a constant for all ODs. Its mathematical significance is very clear, and the fit can be analyzed by the results of the passenger travel survey. In general, the smaller the ⁇ , the stronger the sensitivity of the passenger to the impedance.
  • the passenger flow distribution ratio of the path is calculated by the following formula.
  • the road network passenger flow derivation method in the path ratio allocation module is as follows:
  • the travel process of passengers in the road network is a dynamic process that changes with time. It is only possible to completely grasp the full state of the passengers in the road network by relying on the static route selection method. Therefore, a road network passenger flow derivation model based on travel time is designed here.
  • the passenger's travel status in the road network includes the travel time from the gate to the platform, waiting time, multiplication Car travel time, transfer time, transfer time, transfer time, bus time and travel time from the station to the gate.
  • t i refers to the time point when the passenger departs from the O station to reach the i station
  • t O refers to the time when the passenger swipes the card from the O station
  • T ab is the running time of the train in the interval ab, and M is the interval set;
  • T s is the stop time of the train at station S, and N is the station set;
  • the passengers can be inferred in the road network.
  • Step 3 Input the deduction result of step 2 into the affected passenger flow screening and redistribution module, and introduce the path information in the road network in the case where the line section of the road network is interrupted, and perform screening and redistribution calculation on the affected passenger flow. .
  • the classification and screening method of the sudden passenger flow is:
  • the invention divides the passenger flow in the road network into an unreachable passenger flow when the emergency occurs, the passenger flow that needs to be bypassed, the passenger flow whose service level is reduced, and the passenger flow that is not affected by the interruption interval.
  • Interval interruption will make some passengers lose accessibility.
  • the passenger flow that cannot reach the destination only includes the passenger flow with the starting point or the defect inside the interruption interval; when the road network is interrupted into multiple sections
  • the passenger flow that cannot reach the destination includes the passenger flow of the different sub-networks in addition to the aforementioned passenger flow.
  • this part of the passenger flow can only choose the ground bus travel, so this part of the passenger flow belongs to the passenger flow with sudden loss of time and needs to be removed from the total passenger flow;
  • the trip is within the interruption interval, it needs to be discussed separately: if the accident is already on the initial path, the passengers will choose to continue to take the subway to the nearest station to the destination; if the accident occurs, the passenger will still If you have not set off, there are two options for this part of the passengers. One will directly abandon the rail transit mode, and the other will continue to take the subway to the nearest station to the destination. This situation should have been distributed in the stations within the interruption zone. Passengers at the station will choose to leave the station at the nearest station from the interruption zone, causing greater pressure on the station and requiring operational work.
  • the passenger flow that needs to be detoured it needs to be divided into the passenger flow that has not entered the road network at the time of the accident; the passenger flow has been located in the road network after the accident, but has not yet reached the passenger flow in the interruption zone; and has been located in the road network after the accident has passed The passenger flow in the interruption interval.
  • passengers will directly choose alternative routes to travel; in the second case, in the case of complex road networks, most passengers cannot remember the road network structure.
  • the passenger flow that needs to be interrupted by the path needs to find an alternative path to bypass and arrive.
  • the purpose of the station this will result in a substantial increase in the passenger flow of the alternative route, thus affecting the waiting time and ride comfort of passengers traveling normally.
  • passengers can only know the passenger flow of the platform and the comfort of the ride after buying the ticket. Studies have shown that few passengers change their initial travel routes because of changes in congestion, and passengers will pay more time and physical cost when they change their travel routes. Therefore, the tendency of this part of the passenger flow in the path selection will not be affected.
  • the intensity and duration of an emergency determine the extent of the impact of the accident on the road network. After the accident, the scope of the impact is gradually decreasing over time. The passenger flow outside the initial impact range and the station is not affected by the emergency, and the passenger flow characteristics of this part of the passenger flow do not change compared with the daily situation.
  • the passenger flow redistribution calculation method in the case of the emergency event is:
  • the affected passenger flow can be divided into two categories: OD passenger flow that cannot reach the destination, and OD passenger flow whose travel path changes. They have different treatment methods. .
  • Point O is in the passenger flow within the interruption interval, directly deletes the relevant data from the table, does not participate in the passenger flow allocation; passengers who have not boarded the vehicle after the accident and passengers who have already been on the initially selected route at the time of the accident, according to the originally selected path Go to the last stop of the reach and change this station to D station for passenger flow distribution.
  • Passengers who have not yet boarded the vehicle after the accident are assigned according to the new route selection ratio; passengers who have already been on the originally selected route at the time of the accident: if the passenger is at the station, change the station to O, follow the new route The ratio is assigned; if the passenger is in the interval, the next transfer station is changed to O to match the flow according to the new route selection ratio.
  • the interruption interval is set to the unavailable state in the basic road network: all the paths passing through the interruption interval are deleted in the full OD passenger flow distribution path of the normal network, and the interval operation interruption is regenerated according to the above principle.
  • the steps are as follows:
  • Step 4 Calculate the impact range of the emergency event by using the accident information and the road network structure, input the updated path allocation ratio, reload the affected passenger flow, and finally calculate the relevant passenger flow index.
  • the output result is:
  • the calculation method of the network passenger flow index in the case of the emergency event is:
  • the index system of passenger flow in rail transit network is established according to different time periods:
  • Passenger flow at the station 5 minutes of passenger flow, outbound passenger flow, passenger flow (transfer station), and the number of stranded persons;
  • Section passenger flow 5 min section passenger flow.
  • the affected section Sec located outside the interruption interval can also be directly obtained from the OD distribution intermediate table, where a is the length of the statistical period.
  • Retention(t) i refers to the number of stations in station i during t-hours
  • Section(t) ij refers to the section passenger flow of the interval ij of the t period
  • In(t) i is the number of inbound stations at station i during t-hours
  • Out(t) i is the number of outbound stations i at t time
  • TranIn(t) i is the number of people who have entered the station i during the t period;
  • TranOut(t) i is the number of people who exchanged station i during t time.
  • the following is an example of the Beijing-Guangzhou railway network, and an example is given to further illustrate the analysis method of passenger flow impact under the interruption of part of the road network.
  • the OD distribution algorithm of the middle view is used to calculate the specific OD to verify the method.
  • the data and parameters used are divided into three categories.
  • Road network basic data including: station table, line table, interval table.
  • Road network passenger flow data Select the passenger flow data of the Beijing subway on July 22, 2013 as the research object, the required data includes: OD schedule, entry and exit passenger flow statistics table, transfer amount statistics table, train operation schedule, change Take the travel schedule and the cross-section passenger flow table.
  • Computational parameters draw on the parameters of the “Beijing Municipal Rail Transit Automatic Ticketing System Clearing Management Center (ACC) Clearing Method Research” and the document “Beijing Rail Transit Networked Traffic Organization Research Work Report”, where ⁇ is The value is 0.25, the value of U is 10, the value of ⁇ is 60%, and the values of ⁇ 1 and ⁇ 2 are both 1.5.
  • ACC Automatic Ticketing System Clearing Management Center
  • the model is modified based on time impedance to obtain the multipath assignment probability.
  • the network basic data involved including interval running time, stop time, line departure interval, transfer travel time, etc.) are taken from the actual operation of Beijing rail transit.
  • the data and other related parameters are set and analyzed by passenger flow survey.
  • the road network transfer coefficient is the ratio of the transfer volume of the entire road network to the passenger traffic volume of the line. It is calculated that the transfer amount in the entire road network accounts for 45% of the total passenger traffic.
  • the historical OD data is distributed under the normal operating road network.
  • the maximum cross-section passenger flow of each line is calculated every 5 minutes, and the corresponding interval and time period are obtained. It can be seen that the maximum cross-section passenger flow of most lines appears during the morning peak period.
  • Impact analysis in the event of an interruption impact range calculation.
  • the interruption duration is 15 minutes and 30 minutes, and the affected station range pairs are shown in Table 3.
  • the interruption time of the interrupt interval is increased at any time, and the influence range of the emergency event is increased.
  • the affected lines include Line 1, Line 2, Line 4, Line 9 and Line 10.
  • the duration reaches 30 minutes, the line 6 is connected to the rest of the line.
  • the station was also affected. At this time, the corresponding affected stations should be prepared to cope with the large passenger flow in time, and timely release PIS information to passengers to effectively guide the passenger flow.
  • the interruption interval is the No. 1 line Gongzhufen-Xidan two-way interruption, the corresponding Apple Orchard-Princess Tomb, Xidan-Sihuidong is operated by small traffic.
  • Table 49 Statistics of affected stations and their inbound and outbound stations at 05-9:30
  • Detention in the interruption interval The number of stranded persons here is the worst estimate. It is based on the actual number of stranded persons in the station plus the demand for inbound passengers in each period. A maximum estimate of the demand for passenger flow that needs to be diverted by other vehicles during the time period. It can be seen from the above statistical results that the propagation of the affected stations in the road network is gradually spread around the interruption interval. The interval farther from the interruption interval is less affected than the relatively close interval, and the time of influence is delayed.
  • the interruption interval is located in Gongzhufen-Xidan on Line 1, so the passenger flow on Line 1 is the most affected; the station within the interruption interval, where the Military Museum is the transfer station of Line 1 and Line 9, rejuvenation
  • the gate is the transfer station of Line 1 and Line 2
  • the Xidan is the transfer station of Line 1 and Line 4, so the stations near the station in the interruption zone of Lines 2, 4 and 9 are also affected, and Gradually extend to the line; the remaining line sections are less affected.
  • the operation management department needs to timely determine the new traffic scheduling plan, as well as the guidance and current limiting measures according to the interruption interval, the interruption time, and the affected range.
  • the above interrupt time lasts for 15 minutes. It is also possible to change the interrupt start time, interrupt duration, interrupt interval, etc. in the system. If the interrupt start time is 11:35 and the interrupt time lasts for 40 minutes, it can be seen that the interrupt duration is longer. Long, the scope of influence is greater.
  • the analysis results of passenger flow impact under the partial interruption of the road network can reveal the capacity bottleneck of the road network under the condition of interruption, and provide the decision-making basis for the operational management department to adopt targeted driving organization and passenger transportation organization.

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Abstract

La présente invention concerne un procédé d'estimation de flux de passagers pour réseau ferroviaire urbain. Le procédé comprend les étapes consistant à : configurer un procédé de calcul d'une résistance influencée par de multiples facteurs et un procédé de calcul d'un trajet efficace de façon à obtenir un rapport de distribution de multiples trajets parmi des OD de réseau ferroviaire et charger un flux de passagers en fonction du rapport ; obtenir un état général d'un flux de passagers en estimant un flux de passagers dans le réseau ferroviaire en combinaison avec une régularité de la distribution de flux de passagers d'une période correspondante dans le passé. La présente invention assure la sécurité du transit ferroviaire urbain par l'intermédiaire de l'estimation précise du flux de passagers du réseau ferroviaire, ce qui améliore sensiblement le niveau de service et la qualité du transport public urbain dans tout le pays.
PCT/CN2014/093084 2014-09-22 2014-12-05 Procédé d'estimation de flux de passagers pour réseau ferroviaire urbain WO2016045195A1 (fr)

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