WO2019186796A1 - 更新計画作成支援装置、更新計画作成支援システム及び更新計画作成支援方法 - Google Patents

更新計画作成支援装置、更新計画作成支援システム及び更新計画作成支援方法 Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2019186796A1
WO2019186796A1 PCT/JP2018/012871 JP2018012871W WO2019186796A1 WO 2019186796 A1 WO2019186796 A1 WO 2019186796A1 JP 2018012871 W JP2018012871 W JP 2018012871W WO 2019186796 A1 WO2019186796 A1 WO 2019186796A1
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Prior art keywords
update plan
failure
information
plan creation
update
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PCT/JP2018/012871
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English (en)
French (fr)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
敦子 青木
坂上　聡子
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三菱電機株式会社
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Application filed by 三菱電機株式会社 filed Critical 三菱電機株式会社
Priority to PCT/JP2018/012871 priority Critical patent/WO2019186796A1/ja
Priority to JP2018545240A priority patent/JP6532614B1/ja
Priority to TW107136526A priority patent/TWI752273B/zh
Publication of WO2019186796A1 publication Critical patent/WO2019186796A1/ja

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
    • G08B31/00—Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02M—APPARATUS FOR CONVERSION BETWEEN AC AND AC, BETWEEN AC AND DC, OR BETWEEN DC AND DC, AND FOR USE WITH MAINS OR SIMILAR POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS; CONVERSION OF DC OR AC INPUT POWER INTO SURGE OUTPUT POWER; CONTROL OR REGULATION THEREOF
    • H02M5/00—Conversion of ac power input into ac power output, e.g. for change of voltage, for change of frequency, for change of number of phases
    • H02M5/02—Conversion of ac power input into ac power output, e.g. for change of voltage, for change of frequency, for change of number of phases without intermediate conversion into dc
    • H02M5/04—Conversion of ac power input into ac power output, e.g. for change of voltage, for change of frequency, for change of number of phases without intermediate conversion into dc by static converters
    • H02M5/10—Conversion of ac power input into ac power output, e.g. for change of voltage, for change of frequency, for change of number of phases without intermediate conversion into dc by static converters using transformers
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E60/00—Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/16—Electric power substations
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to an update plan creation support apparatus, an update plan creation support system, and an update plan creation support method for equipment having a redundant configuration that constitutes a power system.
  • a plan in order to maintain and update equipment.
  • update plans there are those that periodically update equipment and those that update when it is judged necessary by monitoring the state of the equipment.
  • a method has been proposed in which the risk of equipment failure occurring is evaluated and an update plan is created according to the risk.
  • Patent Document 1 discloses a system that determines an update time based on a risk of power supply failure due to a failure of a power distribution facility and a maintenance cost of the power distribution facility. Further, Patent Document 2 discloses a system for creating a maintenance plan recommendation based on a failure stop probability of equipment, a life cycle cost, and the like.
  • the method of calculating the risk of individual failure of equipment does not take into account the redundant configuration of equipment, and the update plan should be created by appropriately evaluating the impact of equipment failure on the power system. There was a problem that it was not possible.
  • the present invention has been made in order to solve the above-described problems, and considers a redundant configuration of equipment, and an update plan creation support apparatus capable of appropriately evaluating the influence of equipment failure on the power system.
  • the purpose is to provide. It is another object of the present invention to provide an update plan creation support system. It is another object of the present invention to provide an update plan creation support method.
  • An update plan creation support apparatus acquires a failure information storage unit that stores information indicating the likelihood of failure of equipment having a redundant configuration that constitutes a power system, and information indicating the operating status of the equipment. Information indicating the failure occurrence probability and operation status by calculating the failure occurrence probability based on the operation information acquisition unit, the redundant information storage unit for storing information indicating the redundant configuration of the facility, and the information indicating the likelihood of failure And a failure risk calculation unit for calculating a failure risk indicating an influence degree of the failure of the facility on the power system based on the information indicating the redundant configuration, and an update plan creation unit for generating an update plan for the facility based on the failure risk. Prepare.
  • An update plan creation support system is connected to an update plan creation support device for creating an update plan for a facility having a redundant configuration that constitutes a power system, and the update plan creation support device so as to be able to operate. And a monitoring device that collects information indicating the situation.
  • the update plan creation support method acquires a failure information storage step for storing information indicating the likelihood of failure of a facility having a redundant configuration that constitutes the power system, and information indicating an operation status of the facility.
  • a failure risk calculating step for calculating a failure risk indicating an influence degree of the failure of the facility on the power system based on the information and the information indicating the redundant configuration; an update plan creating step for generating an update plan for the facility based on the failure risk; Is provided.
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on the information related to the redundant configuration of the equipment. It is possible to create an update plan that appropriately evaluates the impact.
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 1 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 includes a failure information storage unit 101, a redundancy information storage unit 102, an operation information acquisition unit 103, a failure risk calculation unit 104, an update plan creation unit 105, an input unit 106, and an output unit 107.
  • the failure is not limited to a failure in which the facility stops its original function, but also a decrease in capability in which the facility continues to be lower than its original capability, or a partial failure of the facility. It includes malfunctions in which abnormalities are detected.
  • the term “renewal” includes maintenance and maintenance such as repair and inspection of equipment, in addition to narrowly renewal that replaces deteriorated equipment.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is intended for a power system having a redundant configuration that prevents a loss of function even when a failure occurs in some equipment.
  • a redundant configuration in which multiple facilities with the same or equivalent functions are operated in parallel to distribute the load in parallel is provided, and redundant facilities are prepared. Redundancy in which the operating facilities and standby facilities are switched when an equipment failure occurs
  • the configuration is called multiple redundancy.
  • Multi-redundancy includes, for example, a configuration that switches to a detour route when a failure occurs in some equipment in a power transmission system.
  • the failure information storage unit 101 stores, for example, information on equipment specifications as information indicating the likelihood of equipment failure.
  • Information on equipment specifications includes the number of years since the installation of equipment, model, maintenance history, and the like. Based on these pieces of information, the likelihood of failure is represented, for example, for each number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • the probability of failure may be expressed by a level value classified into a plurality of stages, an annual failure stop time, a remaining life year, and the like.
  • the redundancy information storage unit 102 stores, for example, facility connection relations and facility operation modes as information indicating the facility redundancy configuration.
  • connection relation of facilities is, for example, the connection relation of facilities operating in parallel in parallel redundancy. Further, in multiple redundancy, there are a connection relationship between the operation facility and the standby facility and a connection relationship of a detourable route.
  • the output contribution ratio of each facility with respect to the total output of facilities operating in parallel and the output obstruction rate at the time of failure of each facility with respect to the total output of facilities operating in parallel Information.
  • redundant redundancy it is information indicating whether the facility belongs to an operating facility or a standby facility.
  • the operation information acquisition unit 103 acquires information indicating the operation status of the equipment.
  • the information indicating the operation status of the facility is, for example, the load factor calculated as the output of the facility, the rated output, or the ratio between the average output of the facility and the rated output over a predetermined period.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates a failure occurrence probability based on information indicating the likelihood of failure of the facility stored in the failure information storage unit 101, and calculates the failure occurrence probability and the redundancy information storage unit 102. Based on the information indicating the redundant configuration of the equipment stored in the information and the information indicating the operation status of the equipment acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103, a failure risk indicating the degree of influence of the equipment failure on the power system is calculated. .
  • the failure risk is expressed, for example, as a function with respect to the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 determines an equipment update time based on the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and creates an update plan.
  • the update time of the equipment may be determined in accordance with the priority or constraint conditions considered by the user.
  • the user indicates the owner or manager of the equipment.
  • the input unit 106 receives input of information stored in the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 and information on priority or constraint conditions considered by the user when creating the update plan.
  • the output unit 107 outputs the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104, the update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105, and the like.
  • the input in the input unit 106 can be omitted when necessary information is stored in the update plan creation support apparatus 100 in advance.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is configured using, for example, a server or a PC (Personal Computer) including a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), and the like.
  • the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 are realized using, for example, a storage medium such as a ROM, and the functions of the operation information acquisition unit 103, failure risk calculation unit 104, and update plan creation unit 105 are, for example, This is realized by executing a program using a CPU and a RAM.
  • the input unit 106 and the output unit 107 are configured using, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a display device, or the like.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 may include a communication interface capable of communicating with a network, and may acquire information stored in each storage unit and a program for executing the function of each unit via the network.
  • FIG. 2 is an example of a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 1 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the installation which applies the update plan preparation assistance apparatus 100 is made into a transformer, and the electric power system comprised with a transformer is demonstrated as a substation.
  • FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a substation having a transformer. As shown in FIG. 3, the substation has transformers A1-A3, with transformer A1 and transformer A2 operating in parallel redundancy, and transformer A1 having transformer A3 as a standby facility that can be replaced. Redundancy is made.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates, for example, the failure occurrence probability with respect to the number of years that have elapsed since the creation of the update plan, based on information indicating the likelihood of failure relating to the transformer specifications stored in the failure information storage unit 101. (Step S101).
  • the failure occurrence probability F (t) with respect to the number of years since the update plan was created is obtained from, for example, the Weibull distribution shown in Equation (1).
  • ⁇ is the scale parameter
  • ⁇ is the location parameter
  • t is the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • the position parameter ⁇ is, for example, the number of years that have elapsed since the installation of the transformer when the update plan was created.
  • the number of years that have elapsed since the installation of the transformer at the time of creating the update plan is, for example, 10 years for the transformers A1 and A2, and 30 years for the transformer A3.
  • FIG. 4 is a relationship diagram showing the result of determining the failure occurrence probability of the transformers A1-A3 from the equation (1). As shown in FIG. 4, when the failure occurrence probability is calculated based on the number of years elapsed since the installation at the time of the update plan creation, the failure occurrence probability of the transformer A3 having the longest elapsed time since the installation is calculated to be the largest in each fiscal year. Is done.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 performs transformation based on information indicating the operation status of the transformer acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 and information indicating the redundant configuration of the transformer stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102. A failure risk indicating the degree of influence of the failure of the device on the substation is calculated (step S102).
  • the operation information acquisition unit 103 acquires the load factor and the rated output as information indicating the operation status of the transformer.
  • FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information indicating the operation status acquired by the operation information acquisition unit of the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 1 for carrying out the present invention. As shown in FIG. 5, for example, it is assumed that the rated output of the transformers A1-A3 is 500 MW, the load factors of the transformers A1, A2 are 55%, and the load factor of the transformer A3 is 0%.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 uses the transformer load factor acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 and the information related to the connection relationship stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102 to determine the failure influence coefficient resulting from the connection relationship. Is calculated. At this time, the failure influence coefficient C1n is obtained from the equation (2), for example, for the transformer.
  • n is the transformer unit number
  • x is the load factor of the transformer
  • c, d, f, and g are coefficients.
  • Each coefficient of c, d, f, and g is acquired from the redundancy information storage unit 102 as information related to the connection relation of the transformer.
  • c is set so that the transformer A2 having no alternative equipment takes a larger value than the transformer A1 connected to the transformer A3 of the alternative equipment.
  • the failure influence degree coefficient evaluates the degree of influence that a transformer failure has on a substation based on information on the connection relation of the transformer.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 is a function resulting from the operation mode based on the rated output and load factor acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 and information on the operation mode of the transformer stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102. Calculate the hindrance risk factor.
  • the functional trouble risk coefficient C2n is obtained from, for example, Expression (3) and Expression (4).
  • n is the transformer number
  • r is the rated output of the transformer
  • x is the load factor of the transformer
  • h, j, and k are coefficients.
  • the coefficients h, j, and k are acquired from the redundancy information storage unit 102 as information related to the operation mode in the redundant configuration of the transformer.
  • H is, for example, a parameter that depends on the output contribution ratio of each transformer with respect to the total output of transformers operating in parallel.
  • j is a parameter that depends on the output obstruction amount rate at the time of failure of each transformer with respect to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel.
  • k is a parameter that depends on whether the transformer with multiple redundancy belongs to the active facility or the standby facility. For example, k is set so that the transformers A1 and A2 of the operating equipment take larger values than the transformer A3 of the standby equipment.
  • the functional failure risk coefficient evaluates the degree of influence of transformer failure on the substation based on information on the operation mode of the transformer.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 determines the failure of the transformer for the substation based on the failure occurrence probability with respect to the number of years since the update plan was created, the failure influence coefficient resulting from the connection relationship, and the functional trouble risk factor resulting from the operation mode.
  • the failure risk indicating the degree of impact is calculated.
  • the failure risk R (t) with respect to the number of years since the update plan was created is obtained from the equation (5) as a product of the failure occurrence probability F (t), the failure influence degree coefficient C1n, and the functional trouble risk coefficient C2n, for example.
  • n is the transformer unit number
  • t is the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • FIG. 6 is a relational diagram showing the result of calculating the failure risk with respect to the elapsed years of the transformers A1-A3 from the equation (5).
  • Rmax be the upper limit value of the failure risk determined to be updated.
  • the failure risk is calculated so that the transformer A2, which is an operating facility having no alternative facility, reaches the upper limit value Rmax earliest. Moreover, it is calculated so that the transformer A3 as the standby facility reaches the upper limit value Rmax the latest.
  • the failure risk is calculated so that the transformer A2 as the standby facility reaches the upper limit value Rmax the latest.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan that satisfies the priority or constraint conditions considered by the user based on the failure risk obtained by the failure risk calculation unit 104 (step S103).
  • the priority or constraint conditions considered by the user are received from the input unit 106.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 determines an initial solution for the update time.
  • the initial solution is, for example, an update time recommended by the transformer manufacturer.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure risk with respect to the elapsed years of the transformer when updated at the update time of the initial solution.
  • the initial solution of one of the transformers A1-A3 is shifted to around one year, and the failure risk with respect to the age of the transformer is calculated again.
  • the renewal time at which the maximum value of the failure risk with respect to the elapsed years is minimized is set as the next solution.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 can create a transformer update plan.
  • the update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105 is output to the user and other systems via the output unit 107 (step S104). And the process of the update plan creation assistance apparatus 100 is complete
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 includes the failure information storage unit 101 that stores information indicating the likelihood of equipment failure, and the operation information that acquires information indicating the operation status of the facility. Information indicating the failure occurrence probability and operation status by calculating the failure occurrence probability based on the acquisition unit 103, the redundant information storage unit 102 that stores information indicating the redundant configuration of the facility, and the information indicating the likelihood of failure And a failure risk calculation unit 104 that calculates a failure risk based on information indicating a redundant configuration, and an update plan creation unit 105 that creates an update plan for equipment based on the failure risk.
  • the update plan creation support method includes a failure information storage step for storing information indicating the likelihood of equipment failure, an operation information acquisition step for acquiring information indicating an operation status of the equipment, A redundant information storage step for storing information indicating the redundant configuration of the device, and calculating a failure occurrence probability based on the information indicating the likelihood of failure, and the failure occurrence probability, information indicating the operation status, and information indicating the redundant configuration A failure risk calculating step for calculating a failure risk, and an update plan creating step for creating an equipment update plan based on the failure risk.
  • the target equipment to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is applied is a transformer, and the power system including the equipment is a substation.
  • the target equipment to be applied is a transformer in a plurality of substations.
  • the power system may be a power transmission system formed by a plurality of substations.
  • FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a power transmission system including a plurality of substations.
  • the power transmission system shown in FIG. 7 is composed of six substations A to F, and power is transmitted from substation A to substation F.
  • Substation A is connected to substations B and C
  • substation B is connected to substations D and F
  • substation C is connected to substations D and E, respectively.
  • the substation D and the substation E are connected to the substation F.
  • Substation A is transformers A1, A2, A3,
  • Substation B is transformers B1, B2,
  • Substation C is transformers C1, C2
  • Substation D is transformers D1, D2, D3, and
  • Substation E is transformers E1, E2 and substation F have transformers F1, F2.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure risk based on the information regarding the connection relationship of the detour route of the substation stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102.
  • w is the number of bypass routes
  • n is the transformer unit number
  • x is the load factor of the transformer
  • c, d, f, and g are coefficients.
  • the failure risk is calculated based on information related to the connection relations of the substation, so that power is transmitted when the substation has lost its function. It is possible to appropriately evaluate the impact on the system.
  • FIG. FIG. 8 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 2 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment further includes a deterioration information acquisition unit 108 in the configuration of the first embodiment.
  • the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 acquires information indicating a deterioration state of the equipment from a sensor or the like installed in the equipment to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is applied.
  • the information indicating the deterioration state is, for example, the amount of gas dissolved in the insulating oil.
  • the operation time, the number of operations, temperature, pressure, partial discharge voltage, degree of damage, and the like may be used as the deterioration information.
  • the deterioration information is represented by a level value or the like classified into a predetermined stage from the measurement value measured by the sensor.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 corrects the failure occurrence probability based on the facility deterioration information acquired by the deterioration information acquisition unit 108.
  • a method for correcting the failure occurrence probability using the target equipment to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is applied as a transformer will be described.
  • FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the determination result of the deterioration information acquisition unit of the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 2 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 classifies, for example, the determination result into four stages of determination results of no abnormality, attention required 1, attention required 2, and abnormality based on the measurement result, and the coefficient corresponding to the determination result is obtained.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure occurrence probability F (t) shown in the equation (1) from the equation (7) based on the determination result in the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 from the equation (7). Can be corrected.
  • a is a coefficient depending on the parameter acquired as deterioration information
  • t is the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • ⁇ is the scale parameter
  • t is the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on the information on the redundant configuration, as in the first embodiment. Furthermore, in this embodiment, by providing the deterioration information acquisition unit 108, it is possible to calculate the likelihood of failure according to the degree of deterioration of the equipment, and to determine the update time of the equipment at a more appropriate time. Is possible.
  • FIG. FIG. 10 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 3 for carrying out the present invention.
  • an operation plan storage unit 109 is further provided in the configuration of the first embodiment, and an update plan is created in consideration of changes in the operation status of the equipment and the redundant configuration.
  • the operation plan storage unit 109 stores an operation plan of equipment to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is applied, and stores, for example, information related to an output plan and information related to a redundancy plan.
  • the information related to the output plan is, for example, a planned load factor indicating the load factor assumed during the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 for each year.
  • the information related to the redundancy plan indicates a plan for changing the redundant configuration of the equipment during the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100.
  • the planned output contribution ratio showing the output contribution ratio of each equipment to the total output of equipment operating in parallel every year, the output trouble at the time of failure of each equipment against the total output of equipment operating in parallel This is the planned output hindrance rate that shows the volume rate for each fiscal year.
  • whether the facility is scheduled to operate as an operating facility or a standby facility is a time for changing from the operating facility to the standby facility or from the standby facility to the operating facility.
  • FIG. 11 is an example of a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 3 for carrying out the present invention.
  • transformer A1-A3 shown in FIG. 3 will be described as an example. It is defined that the transformers A1 and A2 are operating facilities, and the transformer A3 changes from a standby facility to an operating facility in the 39th year, for example, and is planned to be operated in parallel with the transformers A1 and A2.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure occurrence probability by using the information regarding the transformer specifications stored in the failure information storage unit 101 (step S111).
  • the detailed operation is the same as step S101 in the first embodiment.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates a failure risk using information on the output plan and the redundancy plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109 (step S112).
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 acquires a planned load factor as information related to the output plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109.
  • FIG. 12 is a relationship diagram showing the planned load factor with respect to the elapsed years of the transformers A1-A3.
  • the failure influence degree coefficient C′1n resulting from the connection relation of the transformer based on the planned load factor is obtained from, for example, Expression (9).
  • n is the transformer unit number
  • x ' is the planned load factor
  • c, d, f, and g are coefficients.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 acquires information on the redundancy plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109.
  • the functional trouble risk coefficient C′2n resulting from the operation mode based on the information related to the redundancy plan is obtained from the equations (10) and (11).
  • n is the transformer number and r is the rated output of the transformer.
  • x ' is a planned load factor of the transformer, and h', j ', and k' are coefficients.
  • h ′ is a parameter depending on the planned output contribution ratio of each transformer with respect to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel.
  • j ' is a parameter that depends on a planned output trouble amount rate at the time of occurrence of a failure of each transformer with respect to the total output of transformers operating in parallel.
  • k ' is a parameter that depends on whether the multi-redundant transformer belongs to the active facility or the standby facility.
  • the failure risk R ′ (t) with respect to the number of years elapsed since the update plan was created is the failure occurrence probability F (t), the failure influence coefficient C′1n, It is calculated from the equation (12) as the product of the function hindrance risk coefficient C′2n.
  • n is the transformer unit number and t is the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created.
  • FIG. 13 is a relational diagram showing the result of calculating the failure risk with respect to the elapsed years of the transformers A1-A3 from the equation (12). As shown in FIG. 13, the transformer A3 is calculated so that the failure risk increases after the 39th year when the standby facility is switched to the operating facility. As described above, by using the information related to the output plan and the redundancy plan, it is possible to evaluate the change in the operation status of the facility and the redundant configuration and calculate the failure risk.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan based on the failure risk obtained by the failure risk calculation unit 104 (step S113).
  • the update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105 is output to the user and other systems via the output unit 107 (step S114). And the process of the update plan creation assistance apparatus 100 is complete
  • the detailed operation is the same as steps S103 and S104 of the first embodiment.
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on the information on the redundant configuration, as in the first embodiment. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, by including the operation plan storage unit 109, it is possible to calculate the failure risk by evaluating that the operating status of the equipment and the redundant configuration are changed, and to update the equipment more appropriately. Can be determined.
  • FIG. FIG. 14 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 4 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment further includes an operation plan change proposal unit 110 in the configuration of the third embodiment.
  • the operation plan change proposing unit 110 creates an operation plan change plan when the update plan creation unit 105 cannot create an update plan that satisfies the priority or constraint conditions in the plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109. .
  • the update plan creation unit 105 does not calculate a solution that satisfies the constraint condition that the maximum value of the failure risk with respect to the number of years elapsed since the update plan creation is equal to or less than a predetermined upper limit value.
  • the operation plan change proposal unit 110 creates a change plan for the operation plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109.
  • the planned load factor of the transformer stored in the operation plan storage unit 109 is changed.
  • the planned load factor of the transformer is changed while changing the operation mode such as changing the standby facility to the active facility or changing the active facility to the standby facility.
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on the information on the redundant configuration, as in the first embodiment.
  • the operation plan storage unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110 are provided, so that the operation plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109 can be changed by the operation plan change proposal unit 110.
  • FIG. FIG. 15 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 5 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment further includes a cost information storage unit 111 in the configuration of the first embodiment.
  • the cost information storage unit 111 stores, for example, an update cost necessary for facility update as information related to the cost necessary for facility maintenance.
  • Information related to expenses required for maintenance of equipment is to compensate for equipment purchase costs, inspection costs, repair costs, operation costs, replacement costs, construction costs, compensation costs associated with functional degradation caused by malfunctions, or functional degradation. Additional costs, replacement rental costs, purchase costs for spare parts, contract costs for maintenance personnel waiting for failure, and the like.
  • the cost information storage unit 111 stores a cost necessary for maintaining the redundant configuration as information related to a cost necessary for maintenance of the facility.
  • Costs required for maintaining the redundant configuration are, for example, standby equipment renewal costs, fixed assets of standby equipment, and increased costs when assuming that the equipment is operated only with operating equipment.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan that satisfies the user's priority or constraint condition based on the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and the cost information stored in the cost information storage unit 111. To do.
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on information on the redundant configuration as in the first embodiment. Furthermore, in this embodiment, by providing the cost information storage unit 111, it is possible to create an update plan that considers both the facility update cost and the failure risk.
  • FIG. FIG. 16 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 6 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment further includes a facility division information storage unit 112 in the configuration of the first embodiment.
  • the facility zoning information storage unit 112 stores information related to the facility zoning, and stores, for example, information related to expenses that can be reduced by updating a plurality of facilities constituting the power system at the same time. Information relating to expenses that can be reduced by updating a plurality of facilities at the same time may be expressed in combination with information specifying the facility such as a production number and a unique ID.
  • Information related to expenses that can be reduced by updating multiple facilities at the same time is, for example, reduction in transportation costs for equipment, reduction in labor costs for renewal, etc.
  • Other information includes compensation costs associated with functional degradation during equipment outages, additional cost reductions to compensate for functional degradation, and administrative procedure costs associated with planning, execution, reporting, and confirmation of equipment renewal work. It may be the amount, labor cost required for information disclosure related to facility renewal work, and reduction of office expenses.
  • FIG. 17 is an example of a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 6 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates a failure occurrence probability based on the information related to the facility specification stored in the failure information storage unit 101 (step S121).
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates a failure risk using information indicating the operation status of the facility stored in the operation information acquisition unit 103 and information indicating the redundant configuration of the facility stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102. (Step S122). Detailed operations are the same as steps S101 and S102 of the first embodiment.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 evaluates the failure risk obtained by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and the cost that can be reduced by updating a plurality of facilities stored in the facility division information storage unit 112 at the same time, An update plan that satisfies the priority or constraint that the user thinks is created (step S123).
  • the maximum value of failure risk calculated as a function of the number of years elapsed since the creation of the update plan is set to a predetermined upper limit value or less, and the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is A description will be given of an optimization method in the case where the restriction condition is to simultaneously satisfy two of minimizing the total amount of the renewal cost.
  • the initial solution is, for example, the renewal time recommended by the equipment manufacturer.
  • For the initial solution recalculate the failure risk and renewal cost of the equipment when the renewal time of one equipment out of the equipment whose renewal time is close to the renewal time of the other equipment.
  • the solution whose value does not exceed the upper limit and has the smallest total renewal cost is set as the next solution.
  • the update plan change proposal is output to the user and other systems via the output unit 107 (step S124). And the process of the update plan creation assistance apparatus 100 is complete
  • the failure risk can be calculated based on information on the redundant configuration as in the first embodiment. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, by providing the facility division information storage unit 112, it is possible to evaluate the cost that can be reduced by updating a plurality of facilities at the same time, and to appropriately determine the facility renewal time. It becomes.
  • the operation plan storage unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110 may be further provided.
  • the operation plan storage unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110 have the same configurations as those shown in the third and fourth embodiments.
  • the operation plan change proposing unit 110 proposes a change of the operation plan based on the information stored in the facility division information storage unit 112.
  • the target facility to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is applied is a substation in the power transmission system shown in FIG.
  • the substation D and the substation E are defined as being able to reduce the renewal cost if they are updated at the same time in the equipment division allocation information storage unit 112.
  • the operation plan change proposing unit 110 changes the operation plan so that the failure risk of the substation E also increases at the same time when the failure risk of the substation D increases.
  • substation B has no detour route for transmitting power to substation F, so that the risk of failure is calculated to be relatively large.
  • substation B reaches the renewal time before renewal time of substations D and E Change the operation plan.
  • the operation plan storage unit 109, the operation plan change proposal unit 110, and the facility zoning information storage unit 112 are provided so that the operation plan can be reduced in consideration of the cost that can be reduced by updating a plurality of facilities at the same time. Can be created. As a result, it is possible to reduce the update cost while keeping the failure risk below a predetermined upper limit value.
  • a plurality of priorities are set in advance in the update plan creation unit 105 without inputting the priority considered by the user.
  • a plurality of update plans corresponding to the priorities may be created.
  • the created update plan may be output in a form in which a plurality of update plans can be compared, and whether or not the user or another system accepts the output result may be input from the input unit 106.
  • an update plan suitable for the user can be selected from among the update plans based on a plurality of priorities preset in the update plan creation support apparatus 100. it can.
  • An update plan creation support system 1000 according to Embodiment 7 for carrying out the present invention will be described. In the following, description of points that are the same as in the first embodiment will be omitted, and different points will be mainly described.
  • An update plan creation support system 1000 according to the present embodiment includes the update plan creation support device 100 according to any one of Embodiments 1 to 6 that creates an update plan for a facility having a redundant configuration that constitutes a power system. And a monitoring device 200 that collects and monitors information indicating the operation status of the facility.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 and the monitoring apparatus 200 can communicate with each other via a wired or wireless network.
  • FIG. 18 is a schematic configuration diagram showing an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 for carrying out the present invention.
  • FIG. 18A is a schematic configuration diagram illustrating an example in which the monitoring device is installed in a power system such as a power plant or a substation.
  • FIG. 18B is a schematic configuration diagram illustrating an example in which the monitoring device is installed in a control command station that remotely controls the facilities of the power system.
  • the monitoring device 200 is provided in each of the power systems 10a such as a power plant and a substation, or power systems 10a and 10b (hereinafter collectively referred to as the power system 10). It is installed in a control command center 20 that remotely controls equipment.
  • the monitoring apparatus 200 can communicate with the power system 10 or each facility of the power system 10 by a wide area network (NW) or a local area network of a wireless line via a wired line or a narrowband wireless that breaks a communication cable or the like. It is connected.
  • NW wide area network
  • FIG. 18B shows an example in which two power systems 10a and 10b are connected, but a plurality of power systems may be connected.
  • FIG. 19 is a schematic configuration diagram showing an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the monitoring apparatus 200 includes an operation information collection unit 201 that collects information indicating the operation status of the facility, and transmits the collected information indicating the operation status to the update plan creation support apparatus 100.
  • the monitoring device 200 includes, for example, a server connected to a network including a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a PC (Personal Computer), and the like.
  • a CPU Central Processing Unit
  • RAM Random Access Memory
  • ROM Read Only Memory
  • PC Personal Computer
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 acquires information indicating the operation status of the equipment transmitted from the monitoring apparatus 200 by the operation information acquisition unit 103.
  • the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure occurrence probability based on the information indicating the likelihood of the failure of the facility stored in the failure information storage unit 101, and the calculated failure The failure risk is calculated based on the occurrence probability, the information indicating the redundant configuration of the facility stored in the redundancy information storage unit 102, and the information indicating the operation status of the facility acquired by the operation information acquiring unit 103.
  • the update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan for each facility based on the failure risk.
  • the update plan creation support system 1000 appropriately evaluates the influence of the equipment failure on the power system 10 by calculating the failure risk based on the information related to the redundant configuration, It is possible to determine the renewal time.
  • the monitoring device 200 provided in the power system 10 or in the control command center 20 that remotely controls each facility of the power system 10 collects information indicating the operation status of the facility and transmits it to the update plan creation support device 100. By adopting such a configuration, it is possible to create an update plan using information indicating the latest operation status of equipment, and it is possible to determine a more appropriate update time.
  • FIG. 20 is a schematic configuration diagram showing an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the deterioration information collection unit 202 of the monitoring apparatus 200 collects information indicating the deterioration state of the equipment from the sensors installed in each equipment to which the update plan creation support system 1000 is applied, and the deterioration information of the update plan creation support apparatus 100.
  • the data is transmitted to the acquisition unit 108.
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 calculates a failure risk based on the information indicating the deterioration status acquired by the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 and creates an update plan.
  • the monitoring device 200 collects facility deterioration information and transmits it to the update plan creation support device 100, so that an update plan can be created using information indicating the latest state of equipment degradation. It is possible to determine an appropriate renewal time.
  • the monitoring apparatus 200 further includes an update plan receiving unit 203 that receives an update plan created by the update plan creation support apparatus 100.
  • FIG. 21 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the monitoring device 200 includes a display unit and the like, displays the update plan received by the update plan receiving unit 203, and notifies the operator in the power system 10 or the administrator of the control command center 20.
  • the monitoring device 200 receives the update plan created by the update plan creation support device 100, the operator in the power system 10 provided with the monitoring device 200 or the control command center 20 that controls the power system 10. Since the administrator can quickly confirm the update plan, the facility update plan can be efficiently implemented.
  • FIG. FIG. 22 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 8 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the update plan creation support system 1000 according to the present embodiment further includes an abnormality detection unit 204 that detects an abnormality or a sign of abnormality that has occurred in the equipment configuring the power system, in the monitoring device 200 according to the seventh embodiment.
  • the update plan creation support system 1000 uses the abnormality detection information transmitted from the abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 to the update plan creation support device 100 according to any one of the first to seventh embodiments to determine whether the failure is likely to occur.
  • the abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 collects information that leads to an abnormality or an anomaly sign from the power system, and detects whether an anomaly or an anomaly sign has occurred in the equipment constituting the electric power system.
  • a method for detecting an abnormality or a sign of an abnormality that has occurred in the equipment that constitutes the power system for example, an error code that indicates the type of failure that has occurred in the equipment that constitutes the power system is collected.
  • it is realizable with the method etc. which diagnose from the measured value of the electric power system which the operation information collection part 201 collected, the operation status of the equipment which comprises a power system, and the sensor etc. which were provided in the equipment.
  • the anomaly detection unit 204 creates anomaly detection information when detecting an anomaly or a sign of an anomaly.
  • the abnormality detection information is, for example, information on the date and time of abnormality detection, information on the equipment that detected the abnormality, and information indicating the abnormality detection content.
  • the information regarding the equipment that has detected the abnormality may be any information that can identify the equipment of the power system. For example, the ID information assigned to each equipment, the model number or manufacturing number of each equipment, and the ID information and the model or manufacturing number are combined. It is a thing.
  • the information indicating the abnormality detection content may be information that can specify the content of the abnormality of each facility, such as an error code, a status code indicating whether the facility is operating or waiting, and an abnormal event name.
  • the abnormality detection information includes other information such as the time of occurrence of abnormality in the equipment, the operating status of the power system and equipment, the measures taken by the equipment to resolve abnormalities such as restart and disconnection, and whether or not the redundant configuration has been changed. Information may be included.
  • the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 acquires the abnormality detection information transmitted from the monitoring apparatus 200 as at least one of information indicating the likelihood of equipment failure and information indicating the redundant configuration of the equipment. And stored in the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102, respectively.
  • the information indicating the likelihood of the failure that is acquired by the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 is, for example, information indicating abnormality detection date and time, information on the abnormality detection target equipment, and abnormality detection content.
  • Information indicating the redundant configuration of the equipment acquired by the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 is, for example, whether or not the redundant configuration has been changed.
  • the information indicating the redundant configuration may determine whether or not the redundant configuration has been changed by estimating the operation status of the facility from the information related to the facility in which the abnormality is detected and the information indicating the abnormality detection content. Further, it may be determined whether or not the redundant configuration has been changed based on the operation status of the power system and the equipment collected by the operation information collection unit 201 of the monitoring apparatus 200 and acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 of the update plan creation support apparatus 100. .
  • FIG. 23 is an example of a flowchart of the update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 8 for carrying out the present invention.
  • the abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 creates abnormality detection information when an abnormality or a sign of abnormality is detected in the equipment constituting the power system (step S201).
  • the monitoring device 200 transmits the abnormality detection information created by the abnormality detection unit 204 to the update plan creation support device 100 (step S202).
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 acquires the transmitted abnormality detection information by the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 (step S203).
  • the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 stores the abnormality detection information in the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 as information indicating the likelihood of failure and information indicating the redundant configuration, respectively (step S204).
  • the update plan creation support apparatus 100 calculates a failure occurrence probability using information indicating the likelihood of failure. Further, the failure risk is calculated using the calculated failure occurrence probability, information indicating the redundant configuration, and information indicating the operation status. An update plan is created based on the failure risk. The detailed operation is the same as that in steps S101 to S104 in the first embodiment.
  • the update plan creation support system 1000 calculates the failure risk based on the information related to the redundant configuration, thereby appropriately evaluating and updating the influence of the equipment failure on the power system. It becomes possible to determine the timing. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, the abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 detects abnormality or a sign of abnormality and creates abnormality detection information, and the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 of the update plan creation support device 100 generates abnormality detection information. It is acquired as at least one of information indicating the likelihood of failure and information indicating the operation status.
  • Embodiments 1 to 8 may be appropriately combined with a plurality of disclosed constituent elements without departing from the gist of the present invention.
  • the target facility to which the update plan creation support device 100 and the update plan creation support system 1000 are applied is a transformer or a substation, and a power system including the target facility is a substation or a power transmission system.
  • the target facility may be a facility constituting a power plant
  • the power system may be a power generation system.
  • the equipment constituting the power plant is, for example, a fuel tank, a boiler, a turbine, a generator, and a transformer. Even with such a configuration, it is possible to calculate the failure risk based on information on the redundant configuration of equipment in the power plant, and to create an update plan that appropriately evaluates the impact of equipment failure on the power generation system. Become.
  • 100 update plan creation support device 101 failure information storage unit, 102 redundancy information storage unit, 103 operation information acquisition unit, 104 failure risk calculation unit, 105 update plan creation unit, 106 input unit, 107 output unit, 108 deterioration information acquisition 109, Operation plan storage unit, 110 Operation plan change proposal unit, 111 Cost information storage unit, 112 Equipment section allocation information storage unit, 113 Abnormal information acquisition unit, 200 Monitoring device, 201 Operation information collection unit, 202 Degradation information collection unit, 203 Update plan receiving unit, 204 Abnormality detection unit, 1000 Update plan creation support system.

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