WO2015198453A1 - 昇降機の部品需要予測システム - Google Patents
昇降機の部品需要予測システム Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- WO2015198453A1 WO2015198453A1 PCT/JP2014/066999 JP2014066999W WO2015198453A1 WO 2015198453 A1 WO2015198453 A1 WO 2015198453A1 JP 2014066999 W JP2014066999 W JP 2014066999W WO 2015198453 A1 WO2015198453 A1 WO 2015198453A1
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- WO
- WIPO (PCT)
- Prior art keywords
- elevator
- demand
- parts
- replacement
- contract form
- Prior art date
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- 230000003028 elevating effect Effects 0.000 title abstract 7
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 10
- 230000003247 decreasing effect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
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Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/04—Manufacturing
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0637—Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0637—Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
- G06Q10/06375—Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/30—Computing systems specially adapted for manufacturing
Definitions
- This invention relates to an elevator parts demand forecasting system.
- Patent Document 1 describes a parts demand prediction system.
- the demand for each part is predicted based on the number of products held and the exchange rate for each elapsed time in the parts of the product.
- An object of the present invention is to provide an elevator parts demand forecasting system that can predict demand for elevator parts with higher accuracy.
- the elevator parts demand prediction system obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the parts to the actual replacement time for each elevator contract form in which the parts whose demands are to be predicted are used, and the elevator contract An exchange rate correction unit that corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the component for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each form.
- the replacement rate correction unit obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of parts to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator.
- the exchange rate correction unit corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the parts for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, the demand for parts of the elevator can be predicted with higher accuracy.
- FIG. FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an elevator to which the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention is applied.
- the first elevator 1 is an elevator.
- the management company concludes a management contract for the first elevator 1 with the customer who owns the first elevator 1.
- the second elevator 2 is composed of an elevator.
- the management company concludes a management contract for the second elevator 2 with the customer who owns the second elevator 2.
- the contract form of the first elevator 1 and the contract form of the second elevator 2 may be different.
- the contract form of the first elevator 1 is FM.
- the contract form FM is a contract form including parts replacement for function maintenance repair.
- the contract form of the second elevator 2 is POG.
- the contract form POG is a contract form that does not include parts replacement for function maintenance repair.
- the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is not constant.
- the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is set to be relatively short.
- the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time may be relatively long due to delay in ordering on the customer side.
- the first storage device 3 is provided in a management company.
- the first storage device 3 stores a customer information database.
- the customer information database includes information on the elevator contract form.
- the first storage device 3 stores information indicating that the contract form of the first elevator 1 is FM.
- the first storage device 3 stores information indicating that the contract form of the second elevator 2 is POG.
- the second storage device 4 is provided in the management company.
- the second storage device 4 stores an exchange history database.
- the replacement history database includes information on replacement history for each part of the elevator.
- the second storage device 4 stores information related to the replacement history of the part x.
- the parts demand forecasting system 5 is provided in the management company.
- the parts demand prediction system 5 passes the demand for each part used for the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2 based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3 and the replacement history database of the second storage device 4. Predict every hour. Based on the prediction, the manufacture of repair parts, inventory management for each part, and replacement for each part are accurately performed.
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a parts demand prediction system for an elevator according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- the parts demand prediction system 5 includes a replacement result storage unit 5a, a managed number totaling unit 5b, a replacement rate calculation unit 5c, a replacement rate correction unit 5d, and a demand prediction unit 5e.
- the exchange record storage unit 5a stores a contract-specific exchange record database.
- the contract-by-contract replacement result database includes information on replacement results for each part in each elevator contract. Information regarding the exchange results is obtained based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3 and the exchange history database of the second storage device 4.
- the managed number counting unit 5b counts the number of managed elevators for each elapsed time based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3. For example, the managed number counting unit 5b counts the number of managed elevators with elapsed years i as n (i).
- the managed number totalization unit 5b calculates the number of each part for each elapsed time. For example, the managed number counting unit 5b calculates the number of each part for each elapsed year.
- the replacement rate calculation unit 5 c calculates the replacement rate for each component for each elapsed time based on the replacement history database of the second storage device 4. For example, the replacement rate calculation unit 5c calculates the replacement rate of the part x having the elapsed years i as c x (i).
- the exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the part to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator in which the part for which the demand is to be predicted is used. For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains the exchange execution rate when the contract form of the elevator is FM as p FM (t). For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains the exchange execution rate when the contract form of the elevator is POG as p POG (t).
- the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate c x (i) when the contract form of the elevator is FM based on the exchange execution rate p FM (t). For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate c x (i) when the contract form of the elevator is POG based on the exchange execution rate p POG (t).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the ratio of each elevator contract type for each elapsed time. For example, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the ratio of the elevator contract form FM in the elapsed years i as ⁇ (i). At this time, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the ratio of the elevator contract form POG in the elapsed years i as (1- ⁇ (i)).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each elevator contract type based on the replacement rate corrected by the replacement rate correction unit 5d.
- the demand prediction unit 5e predicts the overall demand for the part by adding the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator.
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number B FM (i) that is a reference for the component x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (1).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the number of replacements A FM (i) of parts x coming from another year with respect to the elapsed year i by the following equation (2).
- a FM (i) ⁇ j p FM (ij) ⁇ C x (j) ⁇ ⁇ (j) ⁇ n (j), J ⁇ i (2)
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number C FM (i) of the part x that turns to another year from the elapsed year i by the following equation (3).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand D FM (i) of the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (4).
- D FM (i) B FM (i) + A FM (i) ⁇ C FM (i) (4)
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number B POG (i) as a reference for the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (5).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number A POG (i) of parts x coming from another year with respect to the elapsed year i by the following equation (6).
- a POG (i) ⁇ j p POG (ij) ⁇ C x (j) ⁇ (1 ⁇ (j)) ⁇ n (j), J ⁇ i (6)
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number C POG (i) of the part x that turns to another year from the elapsed year i by the following equation (7).
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand D POG (i) of the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (8).
- D POG (i) B POG (i) + A POG (i) ⁇ C POG (i) (8)
- the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand Dx of the comprehensive part x by the following equation (9).
- FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the number of elevators managed by the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- the horizontal axis in FIG. The vertical axis in FIG. 3 is the number of elevators managed.
- the managed unit totaling unit 5 b totals the number of elevators managed for each elapsed year.
- the number of elevators managed gradually increases from the first year to the third year. From the third year to the sixth year, the number of elevators managed has gradually decreased.
- FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a part replacement rate calculated by the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- the horizontal axis of FIG. 4 is the elapsed years.
- the vertical axis in FIG. 4 is the part replacement rate.
- the replacement rate calculation unit 5 c calculates the replacement rate for each part for each elapsed year. In FIG. 4, as the number of elapsed years increases, the part replacement rate increases.
- FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the parts replacement rate corrected by the elevator parts demand forecasting system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- the horizontal axis in FIG. 5 represents the actual number of years that have elapsed since the scheduled replacement time of the parts.
- the vertical axis in FIG. 5 is the part replacement rate.
- the replacement rate correction unit 5d obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of parts to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator.
- the average value of the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is a relatively short period.
- the elevator parts of the contract form POG the average value of the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is a relatively long period.
- FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the demand for parts predicted by the elevator parts demand forecasting system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- the horizontal axis in FIG. 6 is the elapsed years.
- the vertical axis in FIG. 6 is the total demand for parts.
- the demand prediction unit 5e predicts the total demand for parts by adding the demands for each elapsed year of parts for each contract form of the elevator.
- the distribution of the total demand for parts reflects the probability distribution obtained by the replacement rate correction unit 5d.
- the replacement rate correction unit 5d obtains the probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of parts to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator.
- the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the parts for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, the demand for parts of the elevator can be predicted with higher accuracy.
- the demand for each elapsed time of parts is calculated for each elevator contract type based on the corrected replacement rate.
- the total demand for parts is predicted by adding the demand for each elapsed time of parts for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, demand for parts can be predicted with higher accuracy in accordance with the contract form of the elevator.
- FIG. FIG. 7 is a configuration diagram of an elevator to which the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention is applied.
- symbol is attached
- the remote management device 6 is provided in a management company.
- the remote management device 6 grasps the state of the first elevator 1 and the state of the second elevator 2 almost in real time.
- the management company remotely manages the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2 based on the grasping state of the remote management device 6.
- the management company performs maintenance to eliminate the change. For example, the management company adjusts the attachment state of the components in the first elevator 1 or the second elevator. As a result, in the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2, wear of parts, breakage of parts, and the like are reduced.
- the unit may be any unit as long as it is time such as elapsed months or elapsed days.
- non-contracted may be a kind of contract form.
- the time when only the part arrangement is requested to the elevator that does not have a management contract may be set as the part replacement time in the elevator that is not contracted.
- the demand for elevator parts can be predicted with higher accuracy while taking into account the parts of the elevators that have not been contracted.
- first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2 may be passenger conveyors. In this case, demand for passenger conveyor parts can be predicted with higher accuracy.
- the parts demand prediction system for elevators can be used for elevators in which the period from when a part reaches the scheduled replacement time until the actual replacement is not constant.
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Abstract
Description
図1はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。
図2はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムのブロック図である。
図3はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより集計された昇降機の管理台数を示す図である。図3の横軸は経過年数である。図3の縦軸は昇降機の管理台数である。
図4はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより計算された部品の交換率を示す図である。図4の横軸は経過年数である。図4の縦軸は部品の交換率である。
図5はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより補正された部品の交換率を示す図である。図5の横軸は部品の交換予定時期からの実際の経過年数である。図5の縦軸は部品の交換率である。
図6はこの発明の実施の形態1における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより予測された部品の需要を示す図である。図6の横軸は経過年数である。図6の縦軸は部品の総合的な需要である。
図7はこの発明の実施の形態2における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。なお、実施の形態1と同一又は相当部分には同一符号を付して説明を省略する。
Claims (5)
- 需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求め、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する交換率補正部、
を備えた昇降機の部品需要予測システム。 - 前記交換率補正部により補正された交換率に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出し、昇降機の契約形態毎における当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を加算することにより当該部品の総合的な需要を予測する需要予測部、
を備えた請求項1に昇降機の部品需要予測システム。 - 前記需要予測部は、昇降機の契約形態毎の割合に応じて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出する請求項2に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。
- 前記需要予測部は、経過時間に応じて変化する昇降機の契約形態毎の割合に応じて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出する請求項3に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。
- 前記交換率補正部は、遠隔管理により当該部品の交換率が通常よりも下がっている昇降機に対して当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する請求項1から請求項4のいずれか一項に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。
Priority Applications (5)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
JP2016528944A JP6057025B2 (ja) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 昇降機の部品需要予測システム |
PCT/JP2014/066999 WO2015198453A1 (ja) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 昇降機の部品需要予測システム |
KR1020167018033A KR20160085373A (ko) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 승강기의 부품 수요 예측 시스템 |
CN201480071816.1A CN105874499B (zh) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 升降机的部件需求预测系统 |
TW104111740A TWI654571B (zh) | 2014-06-26 | 2015-04-13 | 昇降機之元件需求預測系統 |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
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PCT/JP2014/066999 WO2015198453A1 (ja) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 昇降機の部品需要予測システム |
Publications (1)
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WO2015198453A1 true WO2015198453A1 (ja) | 2015-12-30 |
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PCT/JP2014/066999 WO2015198453A1 (ja) | 2014-06-26 | 2014-06-26 | 昇降機の部品需要予測システム |
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JP (1) | JP6057025B2 (ja) |
KR (1) | KR20160085373A (ja) |
CN (1) | CN105874499B (ja) |
TW (1) | TWI654571B (ja) |
WO (1) | WO2015198453A1 (ja) |
Families Citing this family (3)
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JP6718415B2 (ja) * | 2017-06-26 | 2020-07-08 | 株式会社日立ビルシステム | 部品交換予測装置、部品交換予測システム、部品交換予測方法 |
CN108357997B (zh) * | 2018-01-04 | 2019-12-10 | 日立电梯(中国)有限公司 | 生命周期检测方法、装置、系统及电梯 |
KR102591580B1 (ko) | 2023-04-14 | 2023-10-19 | 진부현 | 공사 계획 정보 분석 기반 공사용 볼트의 수요 예측 및 재고 관리 방법, 장치 및 시스템 |
Citations (3)
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JP2003331087A (ja) * | 2002-05-13 | 2003-11-21 | Honda Motor Co Ltd | 補修部品の需要予測システム |
JP2005182558A (ja) * | 2003-12-22 | 2005-07-07 | Hitachi Ltd | コスト予測・評価方式 |
JP2007199844A (ja) * | 2006-01-24 | 2007-08-09 | Hitachi Ltd | 部品需要予測プログラム、部品需要予測方法、及びこの方法を実行するシステム |
Family Cites Families (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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KR100393083B1 (ko) * | 2003-04-11 | 2003-07-31 | 삼성전자주식회사 | 정지화를 기록 및/또는 재생하는 방법 |
JP2007206990A (ja) * | 2006-02-02 | 2007-08-16 | Hitachi Ltd | 需給契約価値算出システム |
TW200931216A (en) | 2007-10-12 | 2009-07-16 | Rexnord Marbett Srl | A system and a method for remotely monitoring the operational life of conveyors of articles |
JP4612699B2 (ja) | 2008-03-11 | 2011-01-12 | 株式会社東芝 | 監視診断装置及び遠隔監視診断システム |
US20120173299A1 (en) * | 2011-01-04 | 2012-07-05 | Mcmullin Dale Robert | Systems and methods for use in correcting a predicted failure in a production process |
JP5896668B2 (ja) * | 2011-09-26 | 2016-03-30 | 三菱重工業株式会社 | 需要予測装置、需要予測方法および需要予測プログラム |
-
2014
- 2014-06-26 KR KR1020167018033A patent/KR20160085373A/ko not_active Application Discontinuation
- 2014-06-26 WO PCT/JP2014/066999 patent/WO2015198453A1/ja active Application Filing
- 2014-06-26 CN CN201480071816.1A patent/CN105874499B/zh not_active Expired - Fee Related
- 2014-06-26 JP JP2016528944A patent/JP6057025B2/ja not_active Expired - Fee Related
-
2015
- 2015-04-13 TW TW104111740A patent/TWI654571B/zh not_active IP Right Cessation
Patent Citations (3)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2003331087A (ja) * | 2002-05-13 | 2003-11-21 | Honda Motor Co Ltd | 補修部品の需要予測システム |
JP2005182558A (ja) * | 2003-12-22 | 2005-07-07 | Hitachi Ltd | コスト予測・評価方式 |
JP2007199844A (ja) * | 2006-01-24 | 2007-08-09 | Hitachi Ltd | 部品需要予測プログラム、部品需要予測方法、及びこの方法を実行するシステム |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
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KR20160085373A (ko) | 2016-07-15 |
TWI654571B (zh) | 2019-03-21 |
JP6057025B2 (ja) | 2017-01-11 |
CN105874499A (zh) | 2016-08-17 |
JPWO2015198453A1 (ja) | 2017-04-20 |
CN105874499B (zh) | 2018-05-25 |
TW201602927A (zh) | 2016-01-16 |
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