WO2017163351A1 - 混雑マネジメント装置、混雑マネジメントプログラム及び混雑マネジメント方法 - Google Patents
混雑マネジメント装置、混雑マネジメントプログラム及び混雑マネジメント方法 Download PDFInfo
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
- G06Q10/047—Optimisation of routes or paths, e.g. travelling salesman problem
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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Definitions
- the present invention relates to a congestion management device, a congestion management program, and a congestion management method.
- the disclosed technology aims to provide a congestion management device, a congestion management program, and a congestion management method capable of selecting an action that contributes to the elimination of congestion.
- an option generation unit that generates an action option for each user's time zone, and a selection probability that calculates a user's selection probability for the action option for each action option generated by the option generation unit
- a calculation unit a storage unit that holds an upper limit value of the number of people that can be guided to the behavior indicated by the behavior option for each behavior option, and a selection probability of a past user's behavior option for each behavior option
- An estimated number calculating unit that calculates an estimated number of persons estimated to have selected the action option, and the option generation unit is configured to use the user based on the upper limit value and the estimated number of persons for each action option. It is a congestion management device that extracts action options to be presented.
- the above units may be a computer readable storage medium storing a program or a method for causing a computer to execute each process for realizing the above units as a procedure.
- FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating presentation of action options.
- the congestion management device 200 when the congestion management device 200 receives a request to present an available travel option along with the departure point, destination, and departure time from the terminal device 300 of the user, To display the movement option candidates.
- the congestion management apparatus 200 first extracts the departure time and the movement options according to the departure place and the destination. Then, the congestion management device 200 determines, for each extracted movement option, the upper limit value of the number of people that can be guided to the movement option and the estimated number of users that would have been guided to the movement option so far. With reference to the associated information, a movement option whose estimated number of people has not reached the upper limit is extracted as a usable movement option. Then, the congestion management device 200 displays the extracted movement options on the terminal device 300 in descending order of the degree of contribution to the elimination of congestion and the probability of being selected by the user.
- the user can be allowed to select an action that contributes to the elimination of congestion.
- the movement option of this embodiment is for selecting the way of movement expressed by the transportation means, time, route, etc. from the departure place to the destination. Details of the upper limit of the number of people who can be guided to the moving option and the estimated number of users who will be guided to the moving option will be described later.
- the movement option is referred to as an action option.
- the action option of this embodiment shows the option of the action which a user can take, and a movement option is an example of the action which a user can take regarding a movement.
- the action options of the present embodiment include actions that the user can take, such as shopping and a restaurant drop-in, in addition to the movement options.
- the movement option presentation request transmitted from the terminal device 300 to the congestion management device 200 is an example of a behavior option presentation request. Therefore, in the following description, a request transmitted from the terminal device 300 to the congestion management device 200 is referred to as an action option presentation request.
- the presentation request of the present embodiment is a request for causing the congestion management apparatus 200 to output (suggest) a better action option that is easily accepted by the user and that matches the user's preference and the like.
- the movement options extracted according to the departure point, the destination, and the departure time are 17:00 to 17:14, 17:15 to 17:29. , 17:30 to 17:44, and 17:45 to 17:59.
- the congestion management device 200 includes a storage unit in which the upper limit value of the number of people who can be guided for each movement option and the estimated number of users who will be guided for each movement option are stored. Refer to and extract a movement option whose estimated number of people has not reached the upper limit.
- the movement option with the estimated number of people reaching the upper limit is the railway M, bus B, which operates in the time zone from 17:00 to 17:14, and operates in the time zone from 17:15 to 17:29. There are three buses B.
- the congestion management device 200 extracts the movement options excluding these three movement options as available movement options. Then, the congestion management device 200 displays these movement options on the terminal device 300 in descending order of the probability of being selected by the user of the terminal device 300 that has made a presentation request and has a high degree of contribution to the elimination of congestion.
- FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a system configuration of the congestion management system according to the first embodiment.
- the congestion management system 100 of the present embodiment includes a congestion management device 200 and a terminal device 300.
- the congestion management device 200 and the terminal device 300 are connected via a network.
- the congestion management device 200 of this embodiment includes a user database 210, a guidance upper limit value database 220, a congestion degree database 230, an estimated number of people database 240, a map database 250, and a traffic operation database.
- the congestion management device 200 of this embodiment includes a congestion management processing unit 270.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 receives a request for a movement option from the terminal device 300, refers to each database, contributes to alleviating congestion, and has a high probability of being selected by the user of the terminal device 300.
- the movement options extracted in order are displayed on the terminal device 300.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 receives an action option presentation request from the terminal device 300, refers to each database, contributes to alleviating congestion, and is selected in descending order of probability of being selected by the user of the terminal device 300.
- the extracted action options are displayed on the terminal device 300.
- the map database 250 and the traffic operation database 260 of the present embodiment are provided inside the congestion management device 200, but are not limited thereto.
- the map database 250 and the traffic operation database 260 may be held by an external device.
- other databases of the present embodiment may be provided in the external device.
- FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the congestion management device.
- the congestion management device 200 includes an input device 21, an output device 22, a drive device 23, an auxiliary storage device 24, a memory device 25, an arithmetic processing device 26, and an interface device 27 that are connected to each other via a bus B. Have.
- the input device 21 is a device used for inputting various signals and displaying various information, and is, for example, a mouse or a keyboard.
- the output device 22 is a device used for outputting various kinds of information, and is, for example, a display.
- the interface device 27 includes a modem, a LAN card, etc., and is used for connecting to a network.
- the congestion management program is at least a part of various programs that control the congestion management apparatus 200.
- the congestion management program is provided, for example, by distributing the recording medium 28 or downloading from the network.
- the recording medium 28 on which the congestion management program is recorded is information such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk, etc., a recording medium for recording information optically, electrically or magnetically, a ROM, a flash memory, etc.
- Various types of recording media such as a semiconductor memory that electrically records data, can be used.
- the congestion management program is installed from the recording medium 28 into the auxiliary storage device 24 via the drive device 23.
- the congestion management program downloaded from the network is installed in the auxiliary storage device 24 via the interface device 27.
- the auxiliary storage device 24 stores the installed congestion management program and also stores necessary files, data, and the like.
- the memory device 25 reads and stores the congestion management program from the auxiliary storage device 24 when the computer is activated.
- the arithmetic processing unit 26 implements various processes as described later according to the congestion management program stored in the memory device 25.
- the terminal device 300 is a general tablet computer, a smartphone, or the like, and the hardware configuration thereof is a congestion management device except that a display operation device is provided instead of the input device and the output device. Since it is the same as that of FIG. Note that the terminal device 300 may be a terminal device other than a tablet computer or a smartphone. Specifically, the terminal device 300 may be, for example, a notebook computer or a general desktop computer.
- FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a user database according to the first embodiment.
- the user database 210 of this embodiment stores parameters for each user that are used when calculating the utility for each action option by the user.
- the utility of the action option for each user is calculated using the parameters stored in the user database 210 by the processing of the congestion management processing unit 270 described later.
- “Utility of action options” is a concept used in the field of microeconomics, and represents the level of satisfaction that a user can obtain by selecting an action option. Details of utility calculation will be described later.
- User database 210 of the present embodiment as an item of information, a user ID, ASC M, ASC B, ASC T, ⁇ fare, ⁇ TT, ⁇ DT, the beta CG.
- the item “user ID” is associated with the values of other items, and information including the item “user ID” and the values of other items is Called user information.
- the item “user ID” is associated with each parameter, but the present invention is not limited to this.
- the user's name, age, sex, and the like may be associated with the user ID.
- the value of the item “user ID” is identification information for identifying the user.
- the value of the item “user ID” in the present embodiment is the identification information for specifying the terminal device 300 as the user ID, for example, when the terminal device 300 is used only by a specific user. Also good.
- the value of the item “ASC M ” indicates the level of user satisfaction by selecting the railway M.
- the value of the item “ASC B ” indicates the level of user satisfaction by selecting the bus B.
- the value of the item “ASC T ” indicates the level of satisfaction of the user by selecting the taxi T.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ fair ” indicates a weight for a fee generated by selecting an action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ fair ” indicates the degree to which the fee contributes to the satisfaction when the user selects the action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ TT ” indicates a weight for the travel time.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ TT ” indicates the degree to which the travel time of the action contributes to the satisfaction when the user selects the action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ DT ” indicates a weight for the waiting time.
- the waiting time is the time from the current time to the time to start moving.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ DT ” indicates the degree to which the waiting time until the movement contributes to the satisfaction when the user selects the action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ CG ” indicates a weight for the degree of congestion with respect to the action corresponding to the selected action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ CG ” indicates the degree to which the degree of congestion contributes to the satisfaction when the user selects an action option.
- the degree of congestion indicates, for example, the degree of congestion of the movement option when the action corresponding to the selected action option is movement.
- the congestion degree indicates, for example, the congestion degree of a store that performs shopping when the action corresponding to the selected action option is shopping. That is, the degree of congestion in the present embodiment indicates the degree of congestion encountered when an action corresponding to the action option is performed.
- the user with the user ID “001” is “ ⁇ 2” having the smallest value of the item “ ⁇ CG ” among the items indicating the weight. From this, it can be seen that the user with the user ID “001” is a user who tends to dislike congestion.
- FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the guidance upper limit value database according to the first embodiment.
- the guidance upper limit value database 220 of this embodiment stores the upper limit value of the number of people that can be guided to each moving means by time zone.
- the upper limit value of the number of people that can be guided may be, for example, the number of people that becomes a threshold at which it is determined that when the number of people exceeds this number, the degree of congestion that many people feel is uncomfortable.
- the upper limit of the number of people that can be guided is called the guidance upper limit.
- time zones of 17:00 to 17:14, 17:15 to 17:29, 17:30 to 17:44, and 17:45 to 17:59 are shown as an example.
- the time zone is l
- the time zone 1 0 from 17:00 to 17:14
- the time zone l 1 from 17:15 to 17:29.
- the time zone is l
- 17:45 to 17:59 3.
- the guidance upper limit database 220 may store guidance upper limit values for an arbitrary number of moving means.
- the guidance upper limit value for the bus B is 300 people
- the guidance upper limit value for the taxi T is 100 people.
- the combination of the time zone and the moving means is one action option.
- the guidance upper limit value database 220 of this embodiment is stored in the congestion management device 200 in advance, and the guidance upper limit value is determined based on, for example, the operation frequency of the transportation means for each time zone, the boarding capacity for each vehicle, and the like. May be.
- the combination of time zone and moving means is shown as an action option, but the action option is not limited to this.
- the action option may be a combination of time zone and participation in an event, or a combination of time zone and movie appreciation.
- the maximum number of guidance is the number of people in the event venue, the number of seats in the movie theater, and the like.
- the time zone in the guidance upper limit value database 220 may be an arbitrary time zone.
- a guidance upper limit value may be set for each of an early morning time zone to a midnight time zone, and the length of the time zone is also an arbitrary length. good.
- FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a congestion degree database according to the first embodiment.
- each moving means and the congestion level are stored in association with each other according to time zones.
- the congestion degree database 230 stores a congestion degree level associated with each action option.
- the congestion degree database 230 is stored in the congestion management apparatus 200 in advance.
- the congestion level of this embodiment is defined for each moving means. Specifically, for example, the congestion degree of the moving means “railway M” is classified into levels 1 to 3.
- the congestion level 1 is a level at which the user can sit on the seat
- the congestion level 2 is a level at which the user cannot sit on the seat but is not uncomfortable
- the congestion level 3 is an uncomfortable level without sitting on the seat.
- the congestion level of the present embodiment may be obtained from statistics of the boarding rate of the railway M, for example.
- the congestion level may be classified into levels 1 to 3 according to the same definition as the railway. Further, it may be a combination of the congestion level in the vehicle and the congestion level on the road.
- the congestion level is classified into levels 1 to 3 based on the waiting time at the taxi stand.
- the waiting time at the landing may be level 1 if it is less than 5 minutes, level 2 if it is less than 15 minutes, and level 3 if it is 15 minutes or more.
- the action options associated with the congestion level include action options other than the action options shown in FIG.
- the time zone in the congestion degree database 230 may be any time zone as in FIG.
- FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the estimated number of people database according to the first embodiment.
- the estimated number of people database 240 of this embodiment is updated each time the congestion management device 200 receives a request for presentation of action options from the terminal device 300 and displays the action options on the terminal device 300.
- the estimated number database 240 of this embodiment stores the number of users who are considered to be guided to each means of transportation by time zone.
- the estimated number database 240 stores, for each action option indicated by the combination of the time zone and the moving means, the number of users who are considered to have performed the action indicated by the action option.
- the estimated number the number of users who seem to have been guided. That is, the estimated number of people can be said to be the number of users who are guided to the action option presented by the congestion management device 200 and who have selected this action option.
- the estimated number of people database 240 of this embodiment should just have the combination similar to the action choice shown by the guidance upper limit database 220. FIG.
- the guidance upper limit value corresponding to “event participation” is stored in the action option “time zone“ 18:00 to 20:00 ”in the guidance upper limit value database 220, the same applies to the estimated number of people database 240.
- the estimated number of people for the action options is stored.
- the map database 250 of this embodiment stores information about roads.
- Information on roads is, for example, information that expresses roads as a network consisting of nodes and links. Latitude and longitude of intersections and various POIs (Point (Of Interests), road lengths and widths, presence of signals, traffic regulation information, etc. including.
- the road information may include road traffic information acquired in real time by various sensors mounted on the vehicle or the like.
- the traffic information may include the time required for passing through each road.
- information related to operation for each means of transportation is stored.
- the information regarding the operation for each means of transportation includes, for example, the position of a boarding / exiting point such as a station or a bus stop, information about a route connecting the boarding / alighting point, and information about transfer between routes.
- information related to operation for each means of transportation includes information related to charges such as fares, timetable information indicating at which departure time each vehicle arrives and gets off, and the number of passengers on the vehicle.
- FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the function of each device included in the congestion management system of the first embodiment.
- the congestion management apparatus 200 includes a congestion management processing unit 270.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 of the present embodiment is realized by the arithmetic processing device 26 of the congestion management device 200 executing a congestion management program installed in the congestion management device 200.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 of the present embodiment includes a request reception unit 271, a response transmission unit 272, an option generation unit 273, a congestion mitigation contribution calculation unit 274, a congestion degree acquisition unit 275, a selection probability calculation unit 276, and an option determination unit 277. And an estimated number of persons calculation unit 278.
- the request receiving unit 271 receives a presentation request or the like transmitted from the terminal device 300.
- the presentation request includes designation of conditions such as user ID, action date, desired action start time or desired action end time, action start location, and the like.
- the presentation request includes the user ID, the date of use of the transportation facility, the desired departure time or the expected arrival time, the departure place, and the destination.
- the response transmission unit 272 transmits the action option determined by the option determination unit 277 to the terminal device 300.
- the option generation unit 273 generates a travel option from the departure point to the destination as an action option based on the presentation request with reference to timetables of various means of transportation stored in the traffic operation database 260.
- the congestion alleviation contribution calculation unit 274 calculates the guidance upper limit value database 220 and the estimated number of people database 240, and calculates the congestion alleviation contribution for each action option generated by the option generation unit 273. Details of the calculation of the congestion alleviation contribution will be described later.
- the congestion level acquisition unit 275 refers to the congestion level database 230 and acquires the congestion level for each action option generated by the option generation unit 273.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates a selection probability indicating a probability that the user selects an action option for each action option generated by the option generation unit 273. In other words, the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates the selection probability of each behavior option included in the subset for each subset of the behavior option group generated by the option generation unit 273. Details of calculation of the selection probability by the selection probability calculation unit 276 will be described later.
- the option determining unit 277 determines an action option to be output to the terminal device 300 based on the selection probability calculated by the selection probability calculating unit 276 and the congestion mitigation contribution calculated by the congestion mitigation contribution calculating unit 274. Specifically, the option determination unit 277 calculates an expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution degree from the action options generated by the option generation unit 273 using the congestion mitigation contribution degree and the selection probability. Then, the option determination unit 277 obtains a set of action options P having the largest expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution, and determines each action option included in this set as an action option to be output to the terminal device 300. .
- the estimated number calculation unit 278 calculates an estimated number of persons that are likely to have been derived for each action option. Update. Details of the calculation of the estimated number will be described later.
- the terminal apparatus 300 includes an input control unit 310, a request transmission unit 320, a response reception unit 330, an output control unit 340, and a GPS (Global Positioning System) unit 350. Each of these units is realized by a program installed in the terminal device 300 being executed by the arithmetic processing device of the terminal device 300.
- GPS Global Positioning System
- the input control unit 310 of this embodiment accepts input of various types of information.
- the request transmission unit 320 transmits a presentation request corresponding to the input to the congestion management device 200.
- the response reception unit 330 receives a response to the presentation request transmitted by the request transmission unit 320. Specifically, the response receiving unit 330 receives information indicating action options transmitted from the congestion management device 200.
- the output control unit 340 displays the information included in the response received by the response receiving unit 330 on the display operation device of the terminal device 300. Specifically, the output control unit 340 causes the display / operation device to display the action option received by the response reception unit 330.
- the GPS unit 350 acquires position information indicating the current position of the terminal device 300 based on the GPS signal received by the terminal device 300.
- the request transmission unit 320 may transmit the location information acquired by the GPS unit 350 to the congestion management device 200 together with the presentation request instead of the departure place.
- FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining action options according to the first embodiment.
- an action option that moves to the time zone l using the moving means n is represented as P n, l .
- pn, l indicates an individual action option
- P n, l indicates a set of action options.
- a set of moving means n is set as set N
- a set of time zone l is set as set L
- a set of action options for all combinations of moving means n and time zone l is set as set P.
- a set of action options that can be realized is a set F
- a set of action options to be output to the terminal device 300 is a set A
- the sets P, F, and A have a relationship represented by the following expression (1). .
- the set F of feasible action options is an action option for which a moving means is provided during that time period and the estimated number of persons does not reach the upper limit of guidance, and is a subset of the set P.
- the set A of action options output to the terminal device 300 is a subset of the set F.
- the action option set A output to the terminal device 300 is a set of action options presented to the user of the congestion management system 100.
- FIG. 10 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the terminal device of the first embodiment.
- the terminal device 300 When the input control unit 310 accepts a request for presentation of action options from the user (step S1001), the terminal device 300 according to the present embodiment transmits a presentation request to the congestion management device 200 by the request transmission unit 320 (step S1002). ). At this time, the terminal device 300 may transmit the departure point and destination and the desired departure time or the desired arrival time input together with the presentation request to the congestion management device 200. Further, the terminal device 300 transmits the user ID of the user of the terminal device 300 to the congestion management device 200 together with the presentation request.
- the terminal device 300 may transmit the position information of the terminal device 300 to the congestion management device 200 using the GPS unit 350 instead of the departure place. Further, when the departure time is not input, the terminal device 300 may acquire the current time from the clock function of the terminal device 300 and transmit it to the congestion management device 200 instead of the departure time.
- the terminal device 300 receives information indicating a combination of action options from the congestion management device 200 by the response receiving unit 330 (step S1003). Subsequently, the terminal device 300 causes the output control unit 340 to display the combination of action options indicated by the received information on the display / operation device (step S1004), and ends the process.
- FIG. 11 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the congestion management device 200 according to the first embodiment.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 and the request receiving unit 271 of the congestion management device 200 receive an action option presentation request from the terminal device 300 (step S1101). Specifically, the request reception unit 271 receives a desired departure time, a departure place, and a destination from the terminal device 300 together with a request for presentation of action options. The request receiving unit 271 may receive the current time as the desired departure time. Further, the request receiving unit 271 may receive the position information of the terminal device 300 instead of the departure place.
- the congestion management apparatus 200 of this embodiment shall acquire the user ID of the user of the terminal device 300 with a presentation request.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 uses the option generation unit 273 to generate a feasible action option (step S1102).
- the set F of feasible action options generated here is a subset of the action option set P including all combinations of the moving means n and the time zone l.
- the set F is a set of action options for which moving means are provided during the time period and the estimated number of persons has not reached the upper limit of guidance.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 uses the selection probability calculation unit 276 and the option determination unit 277 to determine a combination of action options based on the selection probability (step S1103). In other words, the congestion management processing unit 270 selects the action option set A * to be displayed on the terminal device 300 from the subset A of the action option set F. Details of the processing in step S1103 will be described later.
- the congestion management processing unit 270 calculates an estimated number of persons for each action option using the selection probability of each action option determined by the estimated number calculator 278 as the action option presented to the user.
- the number of people database 240 is updated (step S1104).
- the congestion management processing unit 270 causes the response transmission unit 272 to output the action option set A * determined by the option determination unit 277 to the terminal device 300 (step S1105), and ends the process.
- FIG. 12 is a flowchart for explaining processing of the option generation unit of the first embodiment.
- the option generation unit 273 of the present embodiment determines whether or not the processing after step S1202 has been executed for all action options pn, l (step S1201). In step S1201, when processing has been performed for all action options pn, l , the processing ends.
- the option generation unit 273 refers to the map database 250 and the traffic operation database 260 when all the action options pn, l are not processed, and the desired departure time and the transportation means n from the departure place to the destination. Is present in the time zone l (step S1202).
- the time zone l is a time zone that can be assumed from the departure time.
- step S1202 when there is no corresponding moving means n, the option generation unit 273 returns to step S1201.
- step S1202 if there is a corresponding moving means n, the option generation unit 273 refers to the guidance upper limit value database 220 and the estimated number of people database 240, and the estimated number of people C n, l is the guidance upper limit value C MAX n, It is determined whether it is less than 1 (step S1203).
- step S1203 if the estimated number of persons C n, l is not less than the induction upper limit value C MAX n, l , that is, if the estimated number of persons C n, l has reached the induction upper limit value C MAX n, l , the option generation unit 273 Returns to step S1201.
- step S1203 when the estimated number of persons C n, l is less than the guidance upper limit value C MAX n, l , the option generation unit 273 adds the action option pn, l to the action option set F that can be realized (step S1203). S1204), the process returns to step S1201.
- C n, l in the present embodiment can be expressed by the following formula (2).
- Equation (2) shows the estimated number of people C n, l when the current user is the nth user. A method for calculating the selection probability Prob n, l (X) in the equation (2) will be described later.
- the estimated number of persons C n, l in this embodiment is the number of users up to the n ⁇ 1th when the n th user makes a presentation request for the action options pn, l.
- This is a value obtained by accumulating the selection probabilities Prob n, l (X) of the action options pn, l for each.
- the option generation unit 273 of the present embodiment selects an action option whose estimated number of persons has not reached the upper limit of guidance among action options (movement options) searched based on the desired departure time, departure place, and destination. Extract only. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, for the action option whose estimated number of people has reached the upper limit of guidance, congestion is reduced by suppressing the inflow of users.
- a matrix X represented by the following formula (3) is a matrix indicating a candidate A having a set of action options P n, l presented to the user.
- the option determination unit 277 of the present embodiment sets the action option set A that presents the user with the action option set A that maximizes the congestion mitigation contribution degree calculated by the congestion mitigation contribution degree calculation unit 274. Select as *. This is formulated as an optimization problem such as the following equation (4).
- Prob n, l (X) is the selection probability of the action option pn, l in the set A of action options indicated by the matrix X. This selection probability is calculated by the selection probability calculation unit 276.
- R n, l is the congestion mitigation contribution obtained when the action option pn, l is selected in the action option set A indicated by the matrix X.
- the congestion alleviation contribution degree is calculated by, for example, the following expression (5) by the congestion alleviation contribution degree calculation unit 274.
- C n, l represents the estimated number database 240, action choices p n, the estimated number of people associated with l.
- C MAX n, l is the induction limit database 220, indicating the action alternatives p n, inductive limit associated with l.
- the congestion alleviation contribution degree R n, l of the present embodiment is reduced when an action option with a small ratio of the estimated number of persons to the upper limit of guidance of the action option pn, l is selected.
- the value of contribution R n, l increases.
- the congestion alleviation contribution R n, l may be calculated using a formula different from the above.
- the option determination unit 277 of the present embodiment includes a selection probability Prob n, l (X) and a congestion mitigation contribution R n, for each action option pn, l .
- a selection probability Prob n, l (X) and a congestion mitigation contribution R n for each action option pn, l .
- the product of the selection probability Prob n, l (X) and the congestion mitigation contribution R n, l is the expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution for the action option pn, l .
- the option determination unit 277 calculates an expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution degree for each action option pn, l included in the action option set A shown in the example X, and the sum is calculated as the congestion mitigation contribution degree of the set A. The expected value. Then, the option determining unit 277 determines the set A having the largest expected value of the contribution to congestion mitigation as the set A *. Therefore, each action option pn, l included in the set A * is an action option presented to the user.
- the user selects the action choices pn, l based on a multinomial logit model (MNL). Accordingly, when the set A represented by the matrix X is presented to the user, the probability (selection probability) Prob n, l (X) that the action option pn, l is selected is expressed by the following equation (6). Can be calculated.
- V n, l in Equation (6) indicates the utility of the action option pn, l .
- the utility V n, l can be calculated by the following equation (7), for example.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 refers to the user database 210, acquires user information corresponding to the user ID acquired from the terminal device 300, and sets the value of each item included in the user information. Substitute into equation (7).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 may obtain a value indicating a charge related to movement by the moving means with reference to the traffic operation database 260, for example, and substitute it into the equation (7).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 may refer to the congestion degree database 230 by the congestion degree acquisition unit 275, acquire the congestion level corresponding to the action option pn, l, and substitute it into Expression (7). . Further, the selection probability calculation unit 276 may obtain a waiting time from the desired departure time input in the terminal device 300 and the time zone in the action options pn, l , and may substitute it into the equation (7).
- FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating a procedure for determining a set of action options based on the selection probability according to the first embodiment.
- the procedure described in FIG. 13 shows the procedure of the calculation performed in step S1103 in FIG.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 refers to the user database 210 and acquires user information associated with the user ID. Also, the selection probability calculation unit 276 refers to the congestion degree database 230 and acquires the congestion level of the moving means n in the time zone l indicated by the action option pn, l . Then, the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates utility V n, l shown in Expression (7).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates a value indicating the level of user satisfaction with respect to the action options pn, l in the set A.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates a selection probability Prob n, l (X) represented by Expression (6).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 of the present embodiment obtains the selection probability of the action options P n, l from the value indicating the degree of satisfaction of each action option included in the set A.
- the action options P n, l with higher satisfaction obtained by the user indicate higher selection probabilities.
- the congestion alleviation contribution calculation unit 274 calculates the congestion alleviation contribution R n, l for each action option pn, l in the set A (step S1302).
- behavioral choice P n, for each l, behavioral choice P n, induction limit associated with l The value C MAX n, l and the estimated number of people C n, l are acquired. Then, the congestion mitigation contribution calculation unit 274 obtains the congestion mitigation contribution R n, l shown in Expression (5) for each action option pn, l .
- the option determination unit 277 expects the congestion mitigation contribution degree of the set A from the selection probability Prob n, l (X) for each action option P n, l and the congestion mitigation contribution degree R n, l. Is calculated (step S1303).
- choice decision unit 277 as shown in equation (4), action option P n, for each l, the product of the selection probability Prob n, the congestion mitigation contribution l (X) R n, l The expected value of the contribution to reducing congestion is calculated. Then, the option determination unit 277 sets the sum of the expected values of the contribution to congestion mitigation for each action option P n, l as the expected value of the contribution to congestion mitigation of the set A.
- the option determining unit 277 determines whether or not the expected value of the set A has been calculated for all patterns obtained from the set F of feasible action options P n, l (step S1304). If the expected values have not been calculated for all sets A in step S1304, the option determination unit 277 returns to step S1301.
- step S1304 when the expected values are calculated for all the sets A, the option determining unit 277 presents the set A that provides the maximum expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution degree to the terminal device 300 for the action options P n, l Set A * (step S1305), and the process ends.
- FIG. 14 is a first diagram showing an example of a set of action options that can be realized.
- the action option set to “ ⁇ ” for the combination of the moving means n and the time zone l is feasible because the estimated number of persons C n, l is less than the upper guidance value C MAX n, l. It shows that it is action option pn, l . Further, in the example of FIG. 14, for the action option set to “x” for the combination of the moving means n and the time zone l, the estimated number of persons C n, l has reached the induction upper limit value C MAX n, l , It indicates that the action option pn, l is not feasible.
- Action options are generated.
- a feasible action alternatives p n, set A of l is behavioral choice p Meto, 1, p Meto, 2, p Meto, 3, p B, 1, p B, 3, p T, 0 , pT , 2 , and pT , 3 .
- FIG. 15 is a second diagram illustrating an example of a set of action options that can be realized.
- the set candidates of the action options pn, l presented to the user are shown as a matrix X having n rows and 1 columns.
- FIG. 15A shows a pattern in the case where all of the action options pn, l marked “ ⁇ ” in FIG. 14 are presented to the user.
- each behavior choice p n, and l each behavior choice p n, selection probability Prob n of l, and l (X), the information that associates a table Pr-1.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276 calculates the selection probability because the action option pn, l corresponding to the component having the value “0” in the matrix X is not presented to the user. Not.
- the option determination unit 277 of this embodiment calculates each selection probability Prob n, l (The expected value of the congestion alleviation contribution, which is the product of X) and the congestion mitigation contribution, is calculated. Then, the option determining unit 277 sets the sum of products as an expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution degree of the set F. This expected value is an expected value of the congestion alleviation contribution based on the selection probability shown in the table Pr-1 when each action option pn, l included in the set A indicated by the matrix X is presented to the user.
- FIG. 15B shows a pattern when the action option pT , 0 is excluded from the action options presented to the user among the action options pn, l indicated as “ ⁇ ” in FIG. Therefore, in the matrix X, the value of the corresponding element is “0”.
- information that associates the selection probabilities Prob n, l (X) of the action options pn, l with each other is the table Pr-2.
- the option determination unit 277 calculates the expected value of the congestion alleviation contribution based on the selection probability shown in the table Pr-2, as in FIG.
- FIG. 15C shows a pattern when the action option p M, 1 is excluded from the action options presented to the user among the action options pn, l indicated as “ ⁇ ” in FIG. Therefore, in the matrix X, the value of the corresponding element is “0”.
- information in which the selection probabilities Prob n, l (X) of the action options pn, l are associated with each other is the table Pr-3.
- the option determination unit 277 calculates the expected value of the congestion alleviation contribution based on the selection probability shown in the table Pr-3, as in FIG.
- the expected value of the congestion alleviation contribution is calculated for all possible patterns in the action options pn, l included in the set A.
- the option determination unit 277 calculates an expected value of the congestion mitigation contribution degree with respect to 2 7 patterns.
- the option determination unit 277 selects a set of action options to present to the user the set A of action options pn, l corresponding to the element having a value of “1” in the pattern with the largest expected value of contribution to congestion reduction. Let it be set A *.
- the option determination unit 277 causes the terminal device 300 to display the action options P n, l in a pattern with a large expected value in order from the action options p n, l with the largest selection probability Prob n, l (X). .
- the congestion management device 200 of this embodiment may transmit the congestion level corresponding to the action options pn, l to the terminal device 300.
- the terminal device 300 may display information indicating the congestion status according to the corresponding congestion level for each action option pn, l .
- FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of action options displayed on the terminal device in the first embodiment.
- FIG. 16 shows an example of the screen of the terminal apparatus 300 when the pattern shown in FIG. 15A has the largest expected value of contribution to congestion mitigation.
- the 16 has display fields 302 and 303 on the screen 301 in FIG.
- the display field 302 displays action options.
- the display field 303 displays information indicating the congestion status for each action option.
- “Move by taxi T from 17:30 to 17:44” which is the action option pn, l with the largest selection probability Prob n, l (X) in the table Pr-1, is displayed at the top.
- the In the display field 303 information indicating the congestion status corresponding to the congestion level “2” corresponding to the action option “17:30 to 17:44 moving by taxi T” is displayed.
- information indicating the congestion status corresponding to the congestion level “2” corresponding to the action option “Move by bus B from 17:15 to 17:29” is displayed.
- Information indicating the congestion information may be stored in the congestion degree database 230 in association with the congestion level of each moving unit, for example.
- the terminal device 300 may display the action options in descending order of the expected value of the contribution to reducing congestion.
- the action options to be displayed on the terminal device 300 of the user based on the selection probability for each action option based on the value indicating the level of satisfaction of the user and the degree of contribution to reducing congestion. To decide.
- the estimated number database 240 is updated each time a user of the terminal device 300 makes a request for presentation of action options. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to present an action option in accordance with the latest congestion situation to the user who has requested the action option to be presented. Further, according to the present embodiment, the update of the estimated number database 240 for each action option presentation request suppresses the same action option from being continuously presented, and as a result, it can contribute to alleviation of congestion.
- the second embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings.
- the second embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that an action option determined using the sales contribution degree is presented to the user instead of the congestion alleviation contribution degree.
- the same reference numerals as those used are assigned, and the description thereof is omitted.
- FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating the system configuration of the congestion management system according to the second embodiment.
- the congestion management system 100A of this embodiment includes a terminal device 300 and a congestion management device 200A.
- the congestion management device 200A of the present embodiment includes a user database 210A, a guidance upper limit database 220A, a congestion degree database 230A, and an estimated number database 240A.
- the congestion management device 200A of the present embodiment includes a map database 250, a traffic operation database 260, and a coupon information database 280.
- the congestion management device 200A according to the present embodiment includes a congestion management processing unit 270A.
- action options obtained by combining the movement action by the moving means and the purchase action by the store are output to the terminal device 300.
- action options that take into account the degree of contribution to sales by purchasing actions are output to the terminal device 300.
- Sales by purchase behavior are sales of stores and the like presented as stopovers in action options, for example.
- the map database 250, the traffic operation database 260, and the coupon information database 280 are provided in the congestion management device 200A.
- the map database 250, the traffic operation database 260, and the coupon information database 280 may be provided in devices other than the congestion management device 200A.
- the map database 250, the traffic operation database 260, and the coupon information database 280 may each be provided in a separate apparatus.
- FIG. 18 is a diagram illustrating an example of a user database according to the second embodiment.
- the user database 210A of the present embodiment includes an item “ ⁇ i ” in addition to the items included in the user database 210 of the first embodiment.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ i ” indicates the weight for the monetary value given to the action corresponding to the selected action option.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ i ” indicates the degree to which the monetary value given to the action option selected by the user contributes to the satisfaction when the action option is selected.
- the monetary value is, for example, a coupon.
- the value of the item “ ⁇ i ” indicates the extent to which a coupon having a monetary value contributes to satisfaction with the behavior when the user's behavior includes a drop-in to a store or the like. Show.
- FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating an example of a guidance upper limit value database according to the second embodiment.
- the guidance upper limit value is stored in association with each combination of the moving means n and the time zone l. Further, in the guidance upper limit value database 220A of the present embodiment, the guidance upper limit value is stored in association with each combination of the store and the time zone l.
- the store where the guide upper limit value is stored in the guide upper limit database 220A is one store in the example of FIG. 19, but the store is not limited to this. There may be an arbitrary number of stores in which the guidance upper limit value is stored. Similarly, the time zone l shown in FIG. 19 may include an arbitrary time zone.
- FIG. 20 is a diagram illustrating an example of a congestion degree database according to the second embodiment.
- zone l in FIG. 20 may include arbitrary time slots similarly to FIG. 19, and may include arbitrary actions.
- FIG. 21 is a diagram showing an example of the estimated number database of the second embodiment.
- time zone 1 and the moving means and stopovers in FIG. 21 may include arbitrary time zones as in FIG. 19, and may include arbitrary stores.
- FIG. 22 is a diagram illustrating an example of a coupon information database according to the second embodiment.
- the coupon information database 280 of this embodiment has a store name, coupon existence, and location as information items.
- the value of the item “store name” indicates the name of the store.
- the value of the item “coupon presence / absence” indicates the presence / absence of a coupon.
- the value of the item “location” indicates the location of the store.
- coupon information database 280 shown in FIG. 22, information indicating the presence / absence of a coupon for each store is stored.
- the present invention is not limited to this.
- a facility to which an incentive is given by selecting an action option, a moving unit, and the like, and the presence or absence of those incentives may be stored.
- the coupon information database 280 associates the moving means “taxi T” with the incentive “present” when a discount service is obtained.
- Stored information may be stored.
- FIG. 23 is a diagram for explaining the function of each device included in the congestion management system of the second embodiment.
- the congestion management processing unit 270A included in the congestion management device 200A of the present embodiment includes a request reception unit 271, a response transmission unit 272, an option generation unit 273A, and a sales contribution degree calculation unit 274A.
- the congestion management processing unit 270A of the present embodiment includes a congestion degree acquisition unit 275, a selection probability calculation unit 276A, an option determination unit 277A, an estimated number calculation unit 278, and an incentive provision unit 279.
- the option generation unit 273A of the present embodiment generates a feasible action option based on the desired departure time, the departure place, and the destination input in the terminal device 300.
- the option generation unit 273A of the present embodiment refers to the guidance upper limit value database 220A and the estimated number of people database 240A, and in the combination of the moving means n and the time zone l, the estimated number of people is less than the guidance upper limit value.
- the option generation unit 273A extracts stores whose estimated number of people is less than the guidance upper limit value from stores that can be combined with the moving means n in the time zone l, and combines them with the moving means n as action options.
- the option generation unit 273A uses a combination of the moving means n and the time zone l as an action option.
- the sales contribution degree calculation unit 274A of the present embodiment refers to the coupon information database 280 and calculates the sales contribution degree according to whether or not an incentive is given in the store.
- the sales contribution degree of this embodiment shows the degree which contributes to the sales of the commercial facility which exists in the area of the predetermined range centering on the terminal device 300 by selecting an action option.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A of the present embodiment calculates the selection probability for each action option from the utility for each action option based on the value of each item stored in the user database 210A.
- the option determining unit 277A determines an action option to be output to the terminal device 300 based on the selection probability calculated by the selection probability calculating unit 276A and the sales contribution calculated by the sales contribution calculating unit 274A. To do. Specifically, the option determination unit 277A calculates an expected value of sales contribution using the sales contribution and the selection probability from the action options generated by the option generation unit 273A. Then, the option determination unit 277A obtains a set of action options with the highest expected value of sales contribution, and determines each action option included in this set as an action option to be output to the terminal device 300.
- the value of the incentive i is set to “ Set to “1”.
- the incentive granting unit 279 refers to the coupon information database 280 when the action option includes a store, and sets the value of the incentive i to “1” when the presence / absence of the coupon corresponding to the store is “present”.
- the incentive provision unit 279 refers to the coupon information database 280 when a store is included in the action option, and sets the value of the incentive i to “0” when the presence / absence of a coupon corresponding to the store is “none”.
- FIG. 24 is a diagram for explaining action options according to the second embodiment.
- action options when an incentive is given and action options when an incentive is not given are included. Accordingly, the action options of the present embodiment are indicated as action options P n, l, i . i is a value indicating whether or not there is an incentive.
- the case where the incentive i is given is, for example, a case where there is a store combined with the transportation means n and the time zone l, and a coupon having a monetary value is issued at the store.
- an incentive i may be given even when there is no store combined with the transportation means n and the time zone l, if there is a discount ticket or the like of the fare of the transportation means n.
- the case where the incentive i is not given is, for example, the case where there is a store combined with the transportation means n and the time zone l and no coupon is issued at that store.
- the case where the incentive i is not given is, for example, the case where there is no store combined with the transportation means n and the time zone l.
- the overall operation of the congestion management processing unit 270A of this embodiment is the same as that in FIG.
- FIG. 25 is a flowchart for explaining processing of the option generation unit of the second embodiment.
- step S2501 to step S2504 in FIG. 25 is the same as the processing from step S1201 to step S1204 in FIG.
- step S2504 the option generation unit 273A determines whether or not there is a store that can drop in during the time period l (step S2505).
- the option generation unit 273A acquires the position information of the terminal device 300 from the terminal device 300 together with the action option presentation request, and stores stores within a predetermined range from the position indicated by the position information in the coupon information database 280. It is determined whether or not the information is stored. Then, the option generation unit 273A determines that there is a store that can be visited when the corresponding store exists in the coupon information database 280. The option generation unit 273A determines that there is no store that can be visited when there is no corresponding store in the coupon information database 280.
- step S2505 when there is no corresponding store, the option generation unit 273A returns to step S2501.
- step S2505 when there is a corresponding store, the option generation unit 273A returns to step S2503.
- the option determining unit 277A of the present embodiment sets the action option set A that maximizes the sales contribution calculated by the sales contribution calculating unit 274A as the action option set A * to be presented to the user. select. This is formulated as an optimization problem such as the following equation (8).
- Prob n, l, i (X) is the selection probability of the action option pn, l, i in the action option set A indicated by the matrix X. This selection probability is calculated by the selection probability calculation unit 276A.
- R n, l, i is the sales contribution obtained when the action option pn, l, i is selected in the action option set A shown by the matrix X. is there.
- the sales contribution degree is calculated by the sales contribution degree calculation unit 274A, for example, by the following equation (9).
- ⁇ is a constant given in advance.
- the sales contribution Rn , l, i of the present embodiment becomes a larger value as the waiting time until the movement increases, and becomes a larger value when there is a coupon.
- the sales contribution R n, l, i may be calculated using a formula different from the above.
- the option determination unit 277A of the present embodiment includes a selection probability Prob n, l, i (X) and a sales contribution degree for each action option pn, l, i in the set A of action options indicated by the matrix X. Calculate the product of Rn , l, i .
- the product of the selection probability Prob n, l, i (X) and the sales contribution R n, l, i is the expected value of the sales contribution for the action option pn, l, i .
- the option determination unit 277A calculates the expected value of sales contribution for each action option pn, l, i included in the set A, and sets the sum as the expected value of sales contribution of the set A. Then, the option determination unit 277A determines the set A with the highest expected value of sales contribution as the set A *. Therefore, the action options pn, l, i included in the set A * are the action options presented to the user.
- the probability (selection probability) Prob n, l, i (X) that the action option pn, l, i is selected is selected.
- the utility V n, l in equation (6) can be obtained in the same manner as V n, l, i .
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A refers to the user database 210A, acquires user information corresponding to the user ID acquired from the terminal device 300, and sets the value of each item included in the user information. Substituting into equation (10).
- FIG. 26 is a diagram illustrating a procedure for determining a set of action options based on a selection probability in the second embodiment.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A When the choice generation unit 273A generates feasible action options P n, l, i, the selection probability calculation unit 276A generates each action option in the set A of action options p n, l, i indicated by the matrix X. The selection probability of P n, l, i is obtained (step S2601).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A refers to the user database 210A and acquires user information associated with the user ID.
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A refers to the congestion degree database 230A and acquires the congestion level of the moving means n in the time zone l indicated by the action options P n, l, i . Then, the selection probability calculating unit 276A calculates the utility V n, l, i shown by the equation (10).
- the selection probability calculation unit 276A calculates the selection probability Prob n, l, i (X).
- the sales contribution calculation unit 274A calculates the sales contribution R n, l, i for each action option pn, l, i of the set A (step S2602).
- the option determination unit 277A determines the sales contribution of the set A from the selection probabilities Prob n, l, i (X) for each action option P n, l, i and the sales contribution R n, l, i.
- the expected value of the degree is calculated (step S2603).
- the option determination unit 277A selects the selection probability Prob n, l, i (X) and the sales contribution R n, l for each action option pn, l, i. , I is obtained as an expected value of sales contribution. Then, the option determination unit 277A sets the sum of the expected value of the sales contribution for each of the action options pn, l, i as the expected value of the sales contribution of the set A.
- the option determination unit 277A determines whether or not the expected value of the set A has been calculated for all patterns obtained from the set F of feasible action options pn, l, i (step S2604). If the expected value has not been calculated for all sets A in step S2604, the option determination unit 277A returns to step S2601.
- step S2604 when the expected values are calculated for all the sets F, the option determining unit 277A displays the action options pn, l, and the like that present the set A with the maximum expected value of sales contribution to the terminal device 300 .
- the i set A * is determined (step S2605), and the process ends.
- FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating an example of action options displayed on the terminal device in the second embodiment.
- the screen 301A shown in FIG. 27 has a display field 304 and a display field 305, and a combination of a moving means and a store for each time zone is displayed as an action option.
- the display column 304 displays a combination of the moving means n and the time zone l.
- the display field 305 displays store information associated with the combination of the moving means n and the time zone l.
- the display column 304 shows a case where a combination of “moving from platform A to 17:30 to 17:44 by taxi T” is selected by the user.
- the store information 307 of the store associated with this combination is displayed in the display field 305.
- Store information 307 may include a URL (Uniform Resource Locator) of a screen on which a coupon is displayed, for example, in the coupon information database 280, when the presence / absence of a coupon at the corresponding store is “present”. Further, the store information 307 may display the URL of the homepage of the corresponding store.
- URL Uniform Resource Locator
- the coupon button 307a when the coupon button 307a is operated, the coupon may be displayed on the screen 301A.
- the detail button 307b when the detail button 307b is operated in the store information 307, the homepage of the store K may be displayed on the screen 301A.
- information indicating the congestion status of the moving means is displayed and information indicating the congestion status of the store is not displayed.
- the present invention is not limited to this.
- the stop is a facility such as a movie theater or a restaurant where the number of seats is limited
- information indicating the congestion status corresponding to the congestion level for each facility stored in the congestion database 230A is displayed. Also good.
- the expected value of the sales contribution is calculated based on the selection probability considering the incentive given by selecting the action option, and the action option corresponding to the expected value is calculated as the terminal device. 300 is displayed.
- the third embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings.
- the third embodiment is different from the first and second embodiments in that both the congestion alleviation contribution and the sales contribution are used.
- the same reference numerals as those used in the description of the second embodiment are assigned, and the description thereof is omitted.
- FIG. 28 is a diagram for explaining functions of the congestion management device included in the congestion management system according to the third embodiment.
- the congestion management system 100B of this embodiment includes a terminal device 300 and a congestion management device 200B.
- the congestion management device 200B of this embodiment includes each database included in the congestion management device 200A of the second embodiment and a congestion management processing unit 270B.
- the congestion management processing unit 270B of the present embodiment includes a request reception unit 271, a response transmission unit 272, an option generation unit 273A, a congestion alleviation contribution calculation unit 274, and a sales contribution calculation unit 274A.
- the congestion management processing unit 270B of the present embodiment includes a congestion degree acquisition unit 275, a selection probability calculation unit 276A, an option determination unit 277B, and an estimated number calculation unit 278.
- the option determination unit 277B of this embodiment calculates congestion mitigation and sales contribution when determining the set A * including action options to be output to the terminal device 300. Then, the option determination unit 277B calculates the sum of the product of the congestion mitigation and the sales contribution degree and the selection probability, the expected value of the congestion mitigation and the sales contribution degree of the set A, and sets the set A having the largest expected value as the set A. *
- Congestion alleviation and sales contribution degree of this embodiment using congestion relief contribution degree and sales contribution degree, It can be represented by the following formula (11).
- R cong n, l, i represents the congestion mitigation contribution
- R sale n, l, i represents the sales contribution.
- ⁇ 1 and ⁇ 2 are predetermined constants.
- the constants ⁇ 1 and ⁇ 2 are weights given to the congestion relief contribution and the sales contribution, respectively. Therefore, by arbitrarily setting the constants ⁇ 1 and ⁇ 2 , it is possible to weight each of the congestion mitigation contribution and the sales contribution.
- the present embodiment it is possible to present to the user action options that have a high probability of being selected for the user and that consider the congestion mitigation contribution and the sales contribution. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to select an action that contributes to alleviating congestion.
- Formula (11) shall be used in 3rd embodiment, Formula (11) may be used in 1st embodiment and 2nd embodiment.
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Abstract
Description
以下に図面を参照して第一の実施形態について説明する。図1は、行動選択肢の提示について説明する図である。
以下に図面を参照して第二の実施形態について説明する。第二の実施形態では、混雑緩和貢献度の代わりに、売上貢献度を用いて決定された行動選択肢を利用者に提示する点が第一の実施形態と相違する。以下の第二の実施形態の説明では、第一の実施形態との相違点についてのみ説明し、第一の実施形態と同様の機能構成を有するものには、第一の実施形態の説明で用いた符号と同様の符号を付与し、その説明を省略する。
以下に図面を参照して第三の実施形態について説明する。第三の実施形態では、混雑緩和貢献度と売上貢献度の両方を用いる点が第一及び第二の実施形態と相違する。以下の第三の実施形態の説明では、第一及び第二の実施形態との相違点についてのみ説明し、第一及び第二の実施形態と同様の機能構成を有するものには、第一及び第二の実施形態の説明で用いた符号と同様の符号を付与し、その説明を省略する。
以下の式(11)で示すことができる。
本発明は、具体的に開示された実施形態に限定されるものではなく、特許請求の範囲から逸脱することなく、種々の変形や変更が可能である。
200、200A、200B 混雑マネジメント装置
210、210A 利用者データベース
220、220A 誘導上限値データベース
230、230A 混雑度データベース
240、240A 推定人数データベース
270、270A、270B 混雑マネジメント処理部
273、273A 選択肢生成部
274 混雑緩和貢献度算出部
274A 売上貢献度算出部
276、276A 選択確率算出部
277、277A、277B 選択肢決定部
278 推定人数算出部
279 インセンティブ付与部
300 端末装置
Claims (14)
- 利用者の時間帯別の行動選択肢を生成する選択肢生成部と、
前記選択肢生成部によって生成された行動選択肢毎に、前記行動選択肢に対する利用者の選択確率を算出する選択確率算出部と、
前記行動選択肢毎の、前記行動選択肢が示す行動へ誘導し得る人数の上限値を保持する記憶部と、
前記行動選択肢毎に、過去の利用者の行動選択肢の選択確率に基づき、該行動選択肢を選択したと推定される推定人数を算出する推定人数算出部と、を有し、
前記選択肢生成部は、
前記行動選択肢毎の前記上限値と前記推定人数とに基づき、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を抽出する、混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記選択肢生成部は、
前記推定人数が、前記上限値未満である行動選択肢を、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢として抽出する請求項1記載の混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記選択確率算出部は、
前記利用者が前記行動選択肢を選択することで得られる満足度の水準を表す値を用いて、前記行動選択肢の選択確率を算出する、請求項1又は2記載の混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記記憶部は、
利用者毎に、前記満足度の水準を示す値の算出に用いられる利用者情報を保持する請求項3記載の混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記選択肢生成部により抽出された行動選択肢から、前記行動選択肢を選択することによる混雑緩和貢献度に基づき、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を決定する選択肢決定部を有する請求項1乃至4の何れか一項に記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- 前記行動選択肢毎の前記上限値と前記推定人数とから、前記混雑緩和貢献度を算出する混雑緩和貢献度算出部を有する請求項5記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- 前記選択肢決定部は、
前記抽出された行動選択肢から、前記利用者へ提示し得る全ての行動選択肢のパターンを生成し、
前記全ての行動選択肢のパターン毎に、前記パターンに含まれる行動選択肢の前記選択確率と前記混雑緩和貢献度との積の和を算出し、
前記積の和が最も大きいパターンに含まれる行動選択肢を、前記利用者に提示する行動選択肢に決定する、請求項5又は6記載の混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記選択肢生成部により抽出された行動選択肢から、前記行動選択肢を選択することによる売上貢献度に基づき、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を決定する選択肢決定部を有する請求項1乃至4の何れか一項に記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- 前記時間帯と、前記行動選択肢を選択することにより貨幣価値の有無に応じて、前記売上貢献度を算出する請求項8記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- 前記選択肢決定部は、
前記抽出された行動選択肢から、前記利用者へ提示し得る全ての行動選択肢のパターンを生成し、
前記全ての行動選択肢のパターン毎に、前記パターンに含まれる行動選択肢の前記選択確率と前記売上貢献度との積の和を算出し、
前記積の和が最も大きいパターンに含まれる行動選択肢を、前記利用者に提示する行動選択肢に決定する、請求項8又は9記載の混雑マネジメント装置。 - 前記積の和が最も大きいパターンに含まれる行動選択肢を、前記行動選択肢の選択確率が高い順に前記利用者の端末装置に表示させる請求項7又は10記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- 前記選択肢生成部により抽出された行動選択肢から、前記行動選択肢を選択することによる混雑緩和貢献度及び売上貢献度に基づき、前利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を決定する選択肢決定部を有する請求項1乃至4の何れか一項に記載の混雑マネジメント装置。
- コンピュータに、
利用者の時間帯別の行動選択肢を生成する処理と、
生成された前記行動選択肢毎に、前記行動選択肢に対する利用者の選択確率を算出する処理と、
前記行動選択肢毎に、過去の利用者の行動選択肢の選択確率に基づき、該行動選択肢を選択したと推定される推定人数を算出する処理と、を実行させ、
前記生成する処理は、
前記行動選択肢毎の、前記行動選択肢が示す行動へ誘導し得る人数の上限値を保持する記憶部を参照し、前記行動選択肢毎の前記上限値と前記推定人数とに基づき、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を抽出する処理を実行させる、混雑マネジメントプログラム。 - コンピュータによる混雑マネジメント方法であって、該コンピュータが、
利用者の時間帯別の行動選択肢を生成する手順と、
生成された前記行動選択肢毎に、前記行動選択肢に対する利用者の選択確率を算出する手順と、
前記行動選択肢毎に、過去の利用者の行動選択肢の選択確率に基づき、該行動選択肢を選択したと推定される推定人数を算出する手順と、を実行し、
前記生成する手順は、
前記行動選択肢毎の、前記行動選択肢が示す行動へ誘導し得る人数の上限値を保持する記憶部を参照し、前記行動選択肢毎の前記上限値と前記推定人数とに基づき、前記利用者へ提示する行動選択肢を抽出する、混雑マネジメント方法。
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