WO2006095748A1 - 株式ポートフォリオ選択装置、株式ポートフォリオ選択方法及び株式ポートフォリオ選択プログラム - Google Patents
株式ポートフォリオ選択装置、株式ポートフォリオ選択方法及び株式ポートフォリオ選択プログラム Download PDFInfo
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Definitions
- Stock portfolio selection device stock portfolio selection method, and stock portfolio selection program
- the present invention relates to a stock portfolio selection device that selects a stock portfolio based on a company evaluation index. Furthermore, the present invention relates to a stock portfolio selection method and a stock portfolio selection program.
- Patent Document 1 US Patent No. 6175824 Disclosure of the invention
- the present invention uses an index obtained from a patent representing an off-balanced intangible asset, and also incorporates data obtained from information related to the management finance of a company. Then, comprehensively evaluate how each company strives to increase its corporate value by building and operating a management strategy based on the trinity of business strategy, R & D strategy, and intellectual property strategy. Furthermore, it will be used as a criterion for selecting stocks to be included in the stock portfolio. In addition, the optimal investment ratio will be determined and output based on the same criteria as when selecting stocks to be included in the stock portfolio. This provides a convenient stock portfolio selection device, stock portfolio selection method, and stock portfolio selection program. Means for solving the problem
- the present invention is an apparatus for selecting a stock portfolio based on a company evaluation index, and includes the following means.
- data acquisition means for acquiring company evaluation index-related data including intellectual asset-related indices, company ranking preparation means for performing company evaluation using the company evaluation index-related data, and creating company rankings;
- Stock portfolio selection stock selection means to select stocks to be included in stock portfolio by selecting a predetermined number of companies from the company ranking, and investment of funds to be invested in each company selected by stock stock placement stock selection means
- An investment ratio selection means for selecting a ratio, and a means for creating a stock portfolio corresponding to stocks included in the stock portfolio based on the investment ratio selected by the investment ratio selection means.
- instry is not limited to a generally used industry, but refers to an arbitrary group of companies.
- groups classified by type of technology, product, commodity, etc. or patent classifications International Patent Classification (IPC), FI, F-term, US Patent Classification (UP C), or US Standard Industry Classification (SIC) The group etc. classified by.
- Each stock portfolio selection device described above includes at least one intellectual asset related index from the company evaluation index related data acquired by the data acquisition means as the company ranking creation means.
- Index selection means to select a predetermined number of company evaluation indices
- principal component analysis means for performing principal component analysis using the company evaluation index selected by the index selection means and calculating a principal component score for each company.
- [0014] (4) Factors extracted by performing factor analysis using the company evaluation index-related data acquired by the data acquisition means as the company ranking creation means by each stock portfolio selection device described above.
- Multiple regression analysis using factor analysis means that aggregates company evaluation indices based on the above, factors extracted by the factor analysis means and profit-related indices that represent various revenues such as intellectual asset-related profits, etc.
- the principal component analysis is performed using the multiple regression analysis means that selects the company evaluation index of the factor showing statistical significance for the company and the company evaluation index selected by the multiple regression analysis means, and the principal component score for each company is calculated. And a principal component analysis means.
- the “financial / profitability” factor, the “patent strategy” factor, the “research and development input tendency” factor, and the “intellectual property strategy management” ”Factors as latent variables, and multiple corporate evaluation indicators including the intellectual asset related indicators as observation variables, respectively, the“ finance / profitability ”factor,“ patent strategy ”factor, and“ R & D input propensity ”factor
- the factors that define each of the observed variables that are not specified and the factors that define the “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor, the “Finance and Profitability” factor, the “Patent Strategy” factor, and the “R & D Input Tendency” factor
- Unspecified variable factors are assumed to be error variables, and each of the “finance / profitability” factor, “patent strategy” factor, and “R & D input propensity” factor becomes the “intellectual property strategy management” factor.
- Each of the numbers is a coefficient between latent variables, and each of the “financial / profitability” factor, “patent strategy” factor, “research and development input propensity factor” factor and “intellectual property strategy management” factor
- a causal model is expressed based on the causal model information input by the input means and the causal model information input by the input means, with each coefficient affecting one of the evaluation indices as a latent variable and a coefficient between observed variables.
- a causal model generating means for generating a matrix equation, and a covariance structure generating means for generating a covariance structure representing a variance covariance matrix of observation variables included in the matrix equation by a function of the coefficient assumed in the causal model information;
- the company evaluation index related decentralized covariance matrix calculation means for calculating the variance covariance matrix IJ based on the company evaluation index related data obtained by the data acquisition means, and the company evaluation of the covariance structure Valuation index related data
- Coefficient estimation value calculation means for calculating the estimated value of the coefficient by approximating the variance covariance matrix, and the estimated value of each coefficient calculated by the coefficient estimation value calculation means and the company evaluation index Based on the covariance matrix, the value of a predetermined fitness index is calculated, and the fitness test means for testing the fitness of the causal model based on the fitness index value.
- a causal model determination means for determining a matrix equation when it is determined that the difference between the model and the data related to the corporate evaluation index is within an allowable range; "Financial 'profitability” factor, "patent strategy” factor, “R & D input propensity” factor and the above “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor based on each coefficient included in the defined matrix equation and each observed variable And factor score calculating means for calculating the factor score.
- the “financial / profitability” factor, the “patent strategy” factor, the “R & D input propensity” factor, which are abstract elements, cannot be directly observed, And the above causal structure can be grasped and evaluated by constructing a hypothesis about the causal structure between each factor of “Intellectual Property Strategic Management” and conducting covariance structure analysis. After conducting verification of the above causal structure, the company is evaluated to push forward the strategic management of intellectual assets and more accurately evaluate the companies that are linked to improving the profitability of the company. It is s positive.
- the above-mentioned stock portfolio selection devices include a “financial / profitability” factor, a “patent strategy” factor, a “R & D input propensity” factor, and a “ The ⁇ Intellectual Property Strategy Management '' factor is a latent variable, and the multiple corporate evaluation indicators including the intellectual asset related indicators are observation variables.
- the variable factors that are not specified in the “input propensity” factor are error variables, and the “finance and profitability” factor, the “patent strategy” factor, and the “research and development input propensity factor” Shadow on "Strategic Management" Factor
- Each of the coefficients is a coefficient between latent variables, and each of the “finance / profitability” factor, the “patent strategy” factor, the “R & D input propensity” factor and the “intellectual property strategy management” factor
- a covariance structure analysis is performed based on causal model information in which the coefficient that affects one of the company evaluation
- the covariance structure analysis means The score difference between the “patent strategy” factor score and the “intellectual property strategy management” factor score of each company calculated by the above is calculated, and / or each company calculated by the covariance structure analysis means is calculated.
- the relationship between the sum of the “patent strategy” factor score and the “R & D input propensity” factor score relative to the average value of all companies, and the “intellectual property strategy management” factor score of each company to the average value of all companies The difference between the score difference and the Z or factor score all-mean average size relationship calculation means for calculating the magnitude relationship, and the score difference obtained by subtracting the “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score from the “Patent Strategy” factor score.
- the “financial / profitability” factor, the “patent strategy” factor, the “research and development input propensity” which are abstract elements that cannot be directly observed using covariance structure analysis.
- "Causes” and “Causal structure of" Intellectual Property Strategic Management can be grasped and evaluated.
- Each company's “patent strategy” factor score and “R & D input propensity” factor score, and “intellectual property strategy management” factor score, are evaluated in the company, so that It is possible to reflect potential competitiveness not shown in the evaluation in the corporate evaluation.
- the “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score is a ranking that considers not only intellectual property but also the financial strategy and market evaluation of each company.
- the “patent strategy” factor score is a ranking that accurately reflects a part of each company's intellectual property strategy.
- Each company's intellectual property activities are activities from a long-term perspective to improve corporate value in the future, and serve as the source of each company's future cash flow and corporate value. Therefore, by focusing on the difference in scores between the “patent strategy” factor score and the “Intellectual Property Strategic Management” factor score, the gap between the evaluation of each company's performance to date and the evaluation of its potential for future growth. Based on this, whether or not the current evaluation for each company is underestimated This makes it possible to make a judgment.
- the potential growth potential of each company can be evaluated by further taking into account R & D activities, which are input factors for generating patent's know-how of each company.
- R & D activities are input factors for generating patent's know-how of each company.
- the relative evaluation of each company's “patent strategy” factor score and “R & D input propensity factor” factor score relative to the “intellectual property strategy management” factor score is the exact opposite. The gap between the current evaluation of each company and the evaluation of future potential growth potential has been clarified by extracting the companies that have been Judgment is possible.
- the score difference obtained by subtracting the “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score from the “Patent Strategy” factor score And / or the sum of the “patent strategy” factor score and the “R & D propensity to buy” factor score is less than the average value for all companies, and the “intellectual property strategy”
- An overrated company extraction means is further provided for extracting companies with an “management” factor score that is larger than the average value of all companies as overvalued companies,
- the stock portfolio inclusion stock candidate determination means includes both the enterprise group extracted by the undervalued enterprise extraction means and the enterprise group extracted by the overvalued enterprise extraction means as the primary stock portfolio stock issue candidate. It is also good to do.
- the portfolio can be provided with a risk hedging function by selecting together with companies that are currently undervalued and so-called overvalued companies that show the opposite trend.
- An advantage patent ratio indicating a ratio of dominant patents occupied, and a company-specific technical evaluation value calculation means for calculating a company-specific technical evaluation value using all or at least one of them may be provided.
- the company-specific technical evaluation value calculating means for calculating the technical evaluation value for each company using all or at least one of the patent ratios and the above-mentioned candidate stocks included in the first stock portfolio.
- the stock portfolio candidate stock determination means is the primary stock portfolio.
- the remaining group of companies that are excluded from the exclusion by the candidate stock option cut-off means may be used as candidates for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio.
- the difference in the growth rate of the number of patent applications or the number of valid patents of the company relative to the overall growth rate of patent applications or effective patents The company-specific excess growth rate calculation means for calculating the excess growth rate, and the company-specific corrected relative number for calculating the company-specific relative number of cases by multiplying the average share number of all technical fields by the company-specific excess growth rate Square the share of the number of patent applications or the number of valid patents in a given technical field in the total number of patent applications or valid patents for a given period of the company, and use the squared share
- the company's position can be derived by comparing the patents owned by each company with the patents of other companies.
- the qualitative aspects of patents held by each company can be further improved. It becomes possible to evaluate from multiple aspects.
- the company's potential value is appropriately evaluated by including at least one intellectual asset related index from data related to the corporate evaluation index. Therefore, by distributing the invested funds evenly, in addition to the above effects, a simple and highly profitable stock portfolio can be created.
- a theoretical stock price calculation means for calculating the theoretical stock price for each company stock selected by the stock portfolio inclusion stock selection means, and a theoretical excess profit with respect to the market stock price for each company stock based on the theoretical stock price, the market stock price
- a first parameter calculating means for calculating a theoretical sensitivity for each stock of each company with respect to fluctuations of the company and a theoretical residual parameter indicating a unique price movement for each stock of the respective company;
- Expected return calculation means for calculating the expected return of stocks included in stock portfolio based on the parameter of 1
- risk calculation means for calculating risk of stocks included in stock portfolio based on the calculated first parameter, expectation The shareholding ratio of stock portfolio stocks that minimize the risk value while maintaining a constant return value
- Efficient frontier derivation means to derive the efficient frontier by calculating the return value, risk-free asset risk free rate data acquisition means to obtain risk-free rate data of risk-free assets, risk of risk-free assets
- Capital market line deriving means for deriving a capital market line in contact with the efficient frontier
- the expected return for each stock of each company included in the stock portfolio By calculating the risk, in addition to the above effects, the investment ratio can be selected at the point of contact between the capital market line and the efficient frontier. Furthermore, as a result of appropriately evaluating the potential competitiveness of a company based on theoretical stock prices, it can be expected that distortions in the actual stock price due to arbitrary trends such as market trends unrelated to the company's original asset value can be eliminated as much as possible. As a result, a stock portfolio based on theoretical stock prices can achieve a relative risk reduction and / or achieve a relatively high expected return compared to a stock portfolio based on real stock prices. That is, a more preferable investment ratio can be selected.
- a theoretical stock price calculating means for calculating a theoretical stock price for each stock of each company selected by the stock portfolio incorporation stock selecting means, a stock price index data acquiring means for acquiring price index price movement data, and each stock of each company.
- the individual stock data acquisition means for acquiring the stock price fluctuation data, and the stock price index price movement and the stock price price movement of each company stock are compared and analyzed.
- a second parameter calculation means for calculating the parameter and a correction method for correcting the parameter based on the theoretical stock price.
- An expected return calculating means for calculating an expected return of stocks included in the stock portfolio based on the corrected parameters; a risk calculating means for calculating a risk of stocks included in the stock portfolio based on the corrected parameters; Efficient frontier derivation means for deriving an efficient frontier by calculating the shareholding ratio of stock portfolio stocks that minimizes the risk value while keeping the expected return value constant; Risk-free asset risk free rate data acquisition means for acquiring risk-free rate data for risk assets, and capital market line derivation for risk-free rates of risk-free assets and capital market lines that are in contact with efficient frontiers Stocks at the point of contact between the means and efficient frontiers and capital market lines And optimal held ratio calculating means for calculating a stake of over portfolio incorporated stocks, stock portfolios incorporated stocks based on the optimal stake This is a means for calculating a capital investment ratio for calculating a capital investment ratio for each company.
- Second parameter calculating means an expected return calculating means for calculating an expected return of stocks included in the stock portfolio based on the second parameter group, and a stock portfolio including based on the second parameter group Brand
- Efficient frontier derivation means for deriving efficient frontiers by calculating the ownership ratio of incorporated stocks for each expected return value, and risk-free asset risk-free rate data for obtaining risk-free rate data for risk-free assets
- An acquisition means a capital market line deriving means for deriving a capital market line in contact with the efficient frontier while taking a risk free rate
- the optimal holding ratio of stocks included in the stock portfolio after selecting the recommended companies that are highly evaluated for their potential growth potential and technical capabilities and incorporating a certain ratio.
- the stock portfolio that includes recommended companies for inclusion has a relative risk reduction compared to the stock portfolio that selects the investment ratio based on the efficient frontier for all stock portfolio stocks, and A relatively high expected return can be achieved. That is, a more preferable investment ratio can be selected.
- the theoretical stock price calculation means preferably includes the following means.
- the after-tax theoretical total business profit calculation means for calculating the theoretical total business profit after tax and the corporate evaluation index related data are used.
- a discount rate calculating means for calculating a discount rate for deriving the present value of the company using data related to the company evaluation index, and calculating the theoretical market added value by dividing the theoretical economic excess profit by the discount rate.
- the present invention provides a stock portfolio selection method having the same steps as the processes executed by each of the above apparatuses, and a stock portfolio selection program for causing a computer to realize the same functions as the functions of each of the above apparatuses.
- This also relates to a recording medium on which is recorded.
- FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a stock portfolio selection system using the stock portfolio selection device of the first exemplary embodiment.
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a stock portfolio selection device 30.
- FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of the stock portfolio selection device 30.
- FIG. 5 This is a chart illustrating business-related indicators (part 2).
- FIG. 7 A chart illustrating intellectual asset related indicators (part 1).
- FIG. 8 A chart illustrating intellectual asset related indicators (part 2).
- FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a screen for selecting a business type, a company, and an index.
- FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for performing principal component analysis.
- FIG. 12 is a chart showing eigenvectors of principal component analysis.
- FIG. 13 Centralized ranking corresponding to principal component 1.
- FIG. 15 is a flowchart of factor analysis processing.
- FIG. 16 is a chart showing factor loadings ⁇ eigenvalues' cumulative contribution rate.
- FIG. 17 is a chart showing a list of factors.
- FIG. 18 is a flowchart of multiple regression analysis processing.
- FIG. 19 is a chart showing a list of multiple regression analysis results.
- FIG. 20 is a diagram showing the relationship between indices and factors.
- FIG. 21 is a chart showing a list of principal component analysis results.
- FIG. 23 is a flowchart of covariance structure analysis processing.
- FIG. 24 is an example of a path diagram for explaining the outline of the concept of covariance structure analysis.
- FIG.25 An example of a path diagram showing the results of covariance structure analysis for the evaluation of intellectual property strategic management companies.
- FIG. 26 is a chart showing the weighting applied to each index in order to calculate an evaluation value.
- FIG. 27 is a chart showing the ranking of analysis results of the intellectual property strategic management model.
- FIG. 28 is a chart showing rankings of analysis results of the intellectual property strategy management mode.
- FIG. 29 is a chart showing the ranking of the analysis results of the intellectual property strategy management mode.
- FIG. 30 is a chart showing the ranking of the analysis results of the intellectual property strategy management mode.
- FIG. 31 is a chart showing the ranking of the analysis results of the intellectual property strategy management mode.
- FIG. 32A and FIG. 32B are scatter diagrams of the analysis results of the intellectual property strategic management model.
- FIG. 33 A] and [Fig. 33B] are scatter diagrams of the analysis results of the intellectual property strategic management model.
- FIG.34 Another example of a path diagram showing the results of covariance structure analysis for evaluation of intellectual property strategic management companies.
- FIG. 35 is a flowchart explaining the portfolio creation procedure based on the selection of over-Z undervalued companies.
- FIG. 40 is a flowchart showing an investment ratio selection operation.
- FIG. 41 shows index value movement data
- FIG. 42 is a diagram showing price movement data of individual issues.
- FIG. 43A and FIG. 43B are diagrams showing examples of calculated tt i , ⁇ ;
- FIG. 44 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for calculating a theoretical stock price.
- FIG. 45 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for calculating a theoretical value of gross business profit after tax.
- FIG. 46 is a diagram showing an example of the results of factor analysis and multiple regression analysis.
- FIG. 47 is a diagram showing an example of a result of multiple regression analysis.
- FIG. 48 is a diagram showing an example of a regression line result of ROA ⁇ with respect to a factor.
- FIG. 49 is a diagram showing an example of calculated theoretical stock price.
- FIG. 51 is a diagram showing examples of 0 ⁇ ,, and, ⁇ , ⁇ ;
- FIG. 52 is a diagram showing an example of an efficient frontier and a capital market line.
- FIG. 53 is a diagram showing an example of efficient frontiers and capital market lines.
- FIG. 54 is a diagram showing an example of a theoretical incorporation ratio of each stock in a stock portfolio at a contact point.
- FIG. 56 is a diagram showing an example of a stock portfolio corresponding to principal component 1.
- FIG. 57 is a diagram showing an example of a stock portfolio corresponding to principal component 2.
- FIG. 58 is a diagram showing a comparative example of the stock price rise / fall rate.
- FIG. 59 is a diagram showing an example of return.
- FIG. 60 is a flowchart showing an investment ratio selection operation in the second embodiment.
- FIG. 62 is a diagram showing an example of the theoretical incorporation ratio of each stock in the stock portfolio.
- FIG. 64 is a diagram showing an example of return. Explanation of symbols
- FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a stock portfolio selection system 100 including a stock portfolio selection device 30 as a first embodiment of the present invention.
- the stock portfolio selection system 100 also includes a stock portfolio selection device 30 and an external database server 20.
- the stock portfolio selection device 30 is connected to the external database server 20 via a communication network 10 such as the Internet, or takes external data from the external database server 20 through an appropriate recording medium offline. I can do it.
- the external database 20A includes, for example, an industry enterprise database that records company names for each industry and 50 sounds, business indicators such as business / management-related indicators, R & D-related indicators, intellectual asset-related indicators, The classification of indicators, various constants and thresholds, validity judgment results based on the thresholds, various information such as categories, and the stock prices of each company are recorded.
- business indicators such as business / management-related indicators, R & D-related indicators, intellectual asset-related indicators, The classification of indicators, various constants and thresholds, validity judgment results based on the thresholds, various information such as categories, and the stock prices of each company are recorded.
- the stock portfolio selection device 30 is a computer such as a personal computer or a workstation, and has an internal database 30A.
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of the stock portfolio selection device 30.
- the stock portfolio selection device 30 is composed of a CPU 301, ROM 302, RAM 303, a recording medium mounting unit 304, a recording medium 305, a recording medium interface 306, a calendar clock 307, a transmission / reception means 308, and a communication line 309. , Input means 310, input interface 311, display means 312, display interface 313, recording means interface 314, recording means 315 such as a hard disk (HDD), printer interface 316, and bus 317.
- HDD hard disk
- the CPU 301 controls the overall operation of the stock portfolio selection device 30 while using the RAM 303 as a work area in accordance with the stock portfolio selection device program information.
- all the processing may be executed by the CPU 301, or a plurality of dedicated processing devices may be provided so that the processing is shared among the processing devices.
- the recording medium 305 is detachably attached to the recording medium attachment unit 304.
- the recording medium mounting unit 304 records and reads various information on the recording medium 305. It is connected to the bus 317 via the recording medium interface 306.
- the recording medium 305 is a detachable recording medium such as a semiconductor such as a memory card, a magnetic recording type represented by an MO, a magnetic disk, or the like, or an optical recording type.
- the recording medium 305 can store the internal database 30A.
- the recording medium 305 can also take in external data from the external database server 20 offline.
- the calendar clock 307 is used as a time measuring means and is connected to the bus 317.
- the transmission / reception means 308 is connected to the external database server 20 via a communication line 309. Then, it communicates with the external database server 20 via the communication network 10, and acquires the corporate evaluation index, corporate stock price data, etc. from the external database 20A of the external database server 20.
- the acquired data is stored in the HDD 315 or the recording medium 305 as the internal database 30A.
- the stock portfolio selection device 30 can automatically or manually select index data when acquiring the external database 20A power company evaluation index, company stock price data, and the like.
- the input unit 310 includes a keyboard, mouse, tablet, touch panel, or the like, and is connected to the bus 317 via the input interface 311. This input means 310 is used to select whether or not to update data, to select a type of business, and to select an analysis method on various instruction selection screens (not shown) displayed on the display means 312.
- the display means 312 includes, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or the like, and is connected to the bus 317 via the display interface 313.
- the display unit 312 displays data input from the input unit 310, operation instruction options, and the like on the screen.
- the display means 312 displays the calculated theoretical stock price result on the screen.
- HDD (Hard Disk) 315 includes various constants related to the processing of stock portfolio selection device 30 and attribute information, URL (Uniform
- gateway information gateway information
- DNS Domain Name System
- management financial information related to corporate management technical literature related to patents, patent information, market value information, and thresholds for determining corporate value
- It is a recording means for recording various information such as the validity judgment result.
- Information recorded in the HDD 315 is sent via the recording means interface 314. It can be read and information can be written to HDD315.
- the HDD 315 stores an internal database 30A in which various data are recorded.
- the printer 31 is connected to the bus 317 via the printer interface 316.
- the printer 31 prints a chart and the like relating to the stock portfolio created by the stock portfolio selection device 30 on a medium such as paper as a printing means.
- the stock portfolio selection system in the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to perform a comprehensive evaluation of a company using a company evaluation index including an intellectual asset related index or the like. Then, companies that are candidates for inclusion in stock portfolios can be selected, and a stock portfolio that can output up to the optimal investment ratio can be created. In addition, it will be possible to easily and accurately obtain information on stock trading stocks and investment ratios.
- FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a stock portfolio selection processing procedure based on the stock portfolio selection system 100. This process is realized by the control of the CPU 301 based on information incorporated in the stock portfolio selection program.
- the stock portfolio selection system 100 first acquires necessary data from the internal database 3 OA in step S1.
- business evaluation indicators such as business management indicators, R & D indicators, and intellectual asset indicators, or data such as stock prices of each company.
- Figures 4 and 5 show a list of business' management-related indicators, for example, indicators such as capital investment and capital investment efficiency.
- Figure 6 shows a list of R & D-related indicators, for example, indicators such as R & D expenses and R & D cost ratios.
- FIG. 7 to FIG. 9 are lists of indexes related to intellectual assets, and include, for example, indexes such as the number of patent applications, the number of requests for examination, the total number of valid patents, and the number of claims for application.
- the internal database 30A stores raw data acquired from the external database 20A, standardized processing data, and the like.
- step S2 it is determined whether or not data update is necessary. For example, every day predetermined The time is set as the data update time, and the update process is performed at this time. Alternatively, the data may be updated every time new data is added to the external database 20A.
- step S4 the data obtained from the external database 20A is standardized according to the following equation 1.
- the reason for standardizing the data is mainly to remove the numerical gap that accompanies the difference in scale between industries and indicators.
- step S2 standardized data for each industry is stored in the internal database 30A. After standardizing the data, return to step S1 again to obtain the updated data. Next, if it is determined in step S2 that the data update is not necessary, the process proceeds to the business type “company selection” in step S5.
- step S5 it is determined whether or not an industry and / or company is selected.
- the desired type of industry or specific Accept company selection For example, as shown in Fig. 10, it is possible for the user to select the desired industry or specific company by entering the industry name or company name in the industry and company name input area displayed on the display screen. . Further, for example, the user can select a desired industry or a specific company by selecting an option of the industry name or company name displayed on the display screen. It is also possible to create a stock portfolio by designating a specific industry or company if you want a combination of one industry with another industry, or if you wish to incorporate a particular company. is there.
- step S7 it is determined whether or not an index is selected.
- the selection of the desired index is accepted in step S8.
- the indicators to be selected are, in principle, R & D related indicators and intellectual asset related indicators among the business management indicators, R & D related indicators, and intellectual asset related indicators shown in FIGS. It is desirable to include 1-3. By doing so, it will be possible to appropriately evaluate the intellectual assets accumulated through R & D activities and the potential competitiveness of organizations and human resources that generate intellectual assets. Furthermore, it is possible to appropriately select companies that are expected to improve their intellectual assets and potential competitiveness to profitability.
- principal component analysis is performed in step S12.
- FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for performing principal component analysis.
- principal component analysis is an analysis method that creates a composite variable by extracting components common to observed variables.
- the purpose of principal component analysis is to create one or two comprehensive indicators by integrating many existing indicators, and to evaluate companies that are candidates for inclusion in stock portfolios based on these comprehensive indicators.
- index data is fetched in step S121.
- the total asset R & D cost ratio, the total asset operating profit ratio, the number of objections to be challenged, the average number of years required for registration, and the patent diversification index are selected as evaluation indices designated by the user.
- the index to be selected is not limited to the above, and any index can be set according to the purpose and nature of the analysis.
- the ratio of R & D expenses to total assets is the ratio of the total amount of R & D expenses for each year of the company to the total assets.
- the total asset R & D cost ratio is a measure of the size of R & D expenditure as seen from the asset size (stock) of a company. By adding the ratio of total asset R & D expenses, it becomes possible to measure the contribution of not only intellectual assets but also comprehensive intangible assets that companies potentially hold.
- the total asset R & D cost ratio is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 2 below.
- the total asset operating profit ratio is the ratio of the operating profit for each fiscal year of the company, that is, the ratio of the accounting business revenue obtained from the manufacturing and sales activities of the company to the total assets. This is an indicator of how much total assets, including intellectual assets, contributed to earnings.
- Total assets The operating margin is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 3 below.
- the ratio of the number of objections to be objected is the ratio of the number of cases in which a petition for objection of patent or a request for trial for invalidation was filed per patent for each year of the company. This is an indicator of the quality of patents acquired by each company.
- the number of patents is used to eliminate the influence of the company scale.
- the ratio of the number of alleged objections is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 4 below.
- Ratio of objections filed Number of patents that the company received an objection or request for invalidation in each fiscal year / Number of patents registered in the same year ⁇ (Formula 4)
- the average number of years required for registration is an index that represents the average number of years required from application to registration for patents registered in each year of the company.
- companies can know the purpose of acquiring a patent and the nature of the acquired patent. For example, for strategic applications that should be granted patent rights at an early stage, requests for examination are often made in a relatively short period of time. Therefore, if the average number of years required from the filing of a patent to registration is short, it can be judged that the patent is effectively utilized and is likely to bear fruit.
- the average number of years required for registration is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 5 below.
- the patent diversification index is the ratio of the number of claims filed by international patent classification (IPC) subclass to the total number of claims filed in each year's patent application. That is.
- IPC international patent classification
- Patent diversification index 1 glance (Application claims by international patent classification subclass of the company concerned)
- step S122 a linear combination coefficient ⁇ for synthesizing the selected index Xi and a principal component ⁇ are calculated.
- the principal component ⁇ is the amount of information calculated based on the coefficient ⁇ calculated to maximize the variance.
- the coefficient of each index X is determined so that the variance of the linear combination ⁇ is maximized.
- the coefficient value is calculated so that the variance of ⁇ is maximized under the constraint that the square sum of the coefficient ⁇ is 1. Specifically, it is as shown in Equation 7 below.
- ⁇ ⁇ + hi X + hi X + hi X
- the eigenscale represents the coefficient
- the eigenvalue represents the amount of information contained in the main component.
- the main component to be adopted is selected.
- the main components are calculated by the number of variables.
- the principal component obtained by principal component analysis has a larger amount of information as its eigenvalue increases. Therefore, the principal component 1, the principal component 2, the principal component 3,...
- the threshold value is not limited to the above, and can be arbitrarily set according to the type and nature of the analysis.
- the eigenvalue of 1 or more means that the adopted principal component includes at least the same amount of information as the average of the information amount of the selected index.
- the contribution rate is the ratio that expresses how much each principal component can explain the overall index.
- the contribution rate is calculated by dividing the eigenvalues of each principal component by the sum of the eigenvalues of all principal components.
- the cumulative contribution ratio is the sum of the contribution ratios of each principal component. Cumulative contribution ratio is the ratio that expresses how much the entire main component that has adopted can explain the amount of information that the entire index has.
- the principal component having the largest eigenvalue value and the largest contribution rate is defined as the first principal component. Also, the eigenvalue exceeds 1 and the cumulative contribution rate is 50% Select up to the principal component that occupies the above and make this the second principal component.
- FIG. 12 shows a list representing eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the principal component analysis, and contribution rates and cumulative contribution rates.
- the first principal component 1 has a contribution ratio of 29% or more.
- a comprehensive index is determined.
- the numerical values (eigenvectors) calculated for each index in the list of Fig. 12 represent the coefficient values for each index.
- Principal Component 1 the “Ratio of Total Assets Research and Development Expenses”, “Rate of Return on Total Assets”, and “Rate of Appeals Ratio” are positive, while The coefficient of “average of chemical index” is negative. This result shows that even though the ratio of R & D expenses to total assets is average, technology and patents are concentrated, the number of years required for registration is short, and the return on assets is likely to be high. It is highly appreciated.
- Principal Component 1 represents the characteristics of companies that tend to concentrate intellectual assets, including patents, in a single field. Based on this result, Principal Component 1 is determined as a comprehensive index representing “intellectual asset concentration type”.
- step S124 an overall score for each company regarding principal component 1 and principal component 2 is calculated.
- the total score for each company is calculated based on the formulas shown in Equation 8 and Equation 9 below.
- Z in the formula is the principal component score of “intelligent asset concentration type” of principal component 1, and before each index
- the numerical value placed in is the coefficient value of each index in principal component 1 shown in FIG.
- Z in the formula is the principal component score of the “intelligent asset polygon” of principal component 2, and before each index
- the numerical value placed in is the coefficient value of each index in principal component 2 shown in FIG.
- Fig. 13 shows a ranking table of company evaluations corresponding to the "intelligent asset concentration type" of principal component 1
- Fig. 14 shows the "intellectual asset polygon type” of principal component 2. It is a ranking table of company evaluation corresponding to.
- step S7 it is determined in step S9 whether covariance structure analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression analysis are performed as analysis methods. If the user inputs an instruction to perform factor analysis and multiple regression analysis in step S9, the process proceeds to step S10, and factor analysis is performed.
- Factor analysis is a technique that lurks behind certain observation data and searches for common factors that define them.
- the purpose of factor analysis is to clarify the characteristics and structure of the indicators by clarifying the potential factors that define the indicators, and to aggregate the indicators into several specified factors. There is.
- step S100 factor analysis processing is started, and in step S101, data relating to the index is acquired from the internal database 30A.
- revenue-related indicators included in the business management indicators in Figures 4 and 5 are excluded. This is because these revenue-related indicators are used as objective variables in the multiple regression analysis described later.
- step S102 it is selected whether or not to narrow down the index.
- each finger is input.
- a correlation matrix is calculated for each target.
- step S104 indices having a weak relationship and no commonality are removed, and an index having a deep relationship and a large connection is extracted.
- step S105 the process proceeds to calculation of the factor load.
- the process proceeds directly to the calculation of the factor load in step S105.
- the factor loading is a value indicating the strength of the influence of the factor on the observed variable.
- the main factor method is the maximum likelihood method, the least square method, the generalized least square method, and the like.
- the principal factor method is used.
- the principal factor method is a method of calculating the factor loading in order from the first factor so that the factor contribution of each factor is maximized.
- the factor loading calculation method can be selected according to the purpose and nature of the observation.
- step S106 it is determined whether it is difficult to interpret the factor based on the calculated factor loading. If the user determines that it is difficult to interpret the factor and enters that fact, the factor axis is rotated in step S107 to find a solution that can best interpret the data.
- varimax rotation which is one of orthogonal rotations, is used.
- Varimax rotation is a rotation method in which the factor axis is rotated so that the factor loading for each factor is close to 0 and the absolute value is large, and the contribution of the factor is investigated.
- step S105 the process returns to step S105 to calculate the factor load after rotation. If it is determined in step S106 that it is not difficult to interpret the factor, the factor axis is not rotated and the calculated initial solution of the factor loading is used as it is.
- step S108 the eigenvalue, factor contribution, factor contribution rate, and cumulative contribution rate for each factor are calculated based on the calculated factor loading.
- the eigenvalue is a numerical value that appears when calculating the initial solution of the factor loading. Eigenvalues are calculated for each factor, assuming that there are as many factors as there are indicators. As a result, an arbitrary minimum eigenvalue is selected as a criterion for determining the number of factors to be adopted.
- Factor contribution is the amount that a factor can explain the data, and is determined by the sum of squares of the factor loadings of each index. Calculated for each child. At the time of calculating the initial factor loading, the eigenvalue and the factor contribution value are the same.
- the factor contribution rate is the rate at which a certain factor explains the entire data, and is calculated by dividing the factor contribution by the number of indicators.
- the cumulative contribution rate is a value that accumulates the factor contribution rate as the factor increases, and is an indicator that shows how much data can be explained by how many factors.
- step S109 the number of factors is determined based on the calculated eigenvalue, factor contribution rate, and cumulative contribution rate.
- the number of factors is the number of indicators. Therefore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the criterion for determining the number of factors is that the eigenvalue is 1 or more and the cumulative contribution ratio is 70% or more. As a result, five factors were selected in the embodiment of the present invention.
- FIG. 16 shows a list of factor loadings, eigenvalues, factor contribution rates, and cumulative contribution rates for the five factors selected in the embodiment of the present invention. Judgment criteria are not limited to the above, but can be set arbitrarily according to the purpose and nature of the observation.
- step S110 factor contents are determined. Specifically, the meaning of the five factors selected in step S519 is interpreted based on the factor load calculated for each index for factors 1 to 5. The explanation of the meaning and factor name of each factor from 1 to 5 is as shown in the list in Fig. 17.
- Factor 1 improves the cumulative examination request rate and the cumulative patent registration rate by shortening the number of years until the request for trial and the number of years until the patent registration. It can be said that it is a factor to lengthen. In other words, factor 1 can be interpreted as a factor for acquiring and maintaining patents at an early stage. Based on this interpretation, the factor name of factor 1 is named “patent time management”.
- factors 2 to 5 also have the meaning of each factor according to the above procedure.
- the taste and factor name are determined. The description is omitted to avoid duplication, but the details are as shown in the list of FIG.
- the definitions and calculation formulas for each indicator are as shown in the tables in Figs.
- step S10 multiple regression analysis processing is performed in step S11.
- the multiple regression analysis process will be described below.
- FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of multiple regression analysis.
- the multiple regression analysis is a technique for analyzing how much the value of this objective variable can be explained based on a prediction formula composed of a certain objective variable and a plurality of explanatory variables.
- objective variables and explanatory variables may be set as dependent variables and independent variables depending on the purpose of the analysis.
- the purpose of the multiple regression analysis is to verify whether the five factor forces revealed as a result of the above factor analysis actually contribute to the company's profit expansion. Furthermore, it is to identify the factors that have a high contribution rate to revenue and the indicators that make up those factors.
- step S111 multiple regression analysis processing is entered.
- the revenue-related index data is taken from the list of revenue-related index data stored in the internal data base 30A, and the revenue-related index serving as the objective variable is determined.
- An example of the types and definitions of revenue-related indicator data is shown in the list of revenue-related indicators included in the business management indicators in Figs.
- the revenue-related indicators shown in Figures 4 and 5 are mainly related to the company's performance and results, but the revenue-related indicators are not limited to these. Any indicator can be set according to the purpose and nature of the analysis. can do.
- ROA is an abbreviation for Return On Asset and is also called return on assets.
- R0A is an index that measures how much profit has been gained from total assets by the ratio of net income divided by total assets.
- ROA represents an index that comprehensively evaluates the performance of a company.
- RO A is an appropriate performance index to represent the company's annual asset efficiency.
- Same kind of finger Power that also has ROE (Price Earnings Ratio) in the standard ROE was not adopted in the embodiment of the present invention. The reason for this is that ROE is a measure of profit per capital. In order for a company to actually make a profit, it uses not only its own capital but also other people's capital. The efficiency was judged to be difficult to measure with ROE.
- the total asset ratio (hereinafter referred to as "the royalty income such as patent fees”) is added to the "operating profit" in each fiscal year of each company that is not a normal ROA.
- R ⁇ A * ⁇ ”) is set as the objective variable.
- the formula for calculating ROA- ⁇ is as shown in Equation 10 below.
- ROA- ⁇ (operating income + royalty income such as patent fees) ⁇ Total assets ⁇ (Equation 10)
- R0A ' ⁇ is used as the objective variable. This is because it is a part of the assets held by, and is an appropriate indicator for measuring how much profit is generated by utilizing intellectual assets such as patents together with tangible assets.
- royalties such as patent fees are recorded as non-operating income for accounting purposes, but depending on the company, the account item may not exist in non-operating income. In that case, it is judged that either the power already included in the operating profit or the amount that does not have a significant impact on the financial statements is not shown, and it is added to the operating profit. Not.
- step S113 the five factors extracted as a result of the factor analysis performed in step S10 are read from the internal database 30mm.
- factor 1 pattern time management
- factor 2 productivity
- factor 3 pattern and technology share
- factor 4 search and development
- factor 5 Five factors (patent and technology concentration) are adopted.
- step S114 a multiple regression analysis is performed using the revenue-related index ROA ' ⁇ as an objective variable and the above factors 1 to 5 as explanatory variables, and the partial regression coefficient and standard deviation of each factor (explanatory variable). Calculate the regression coefficient and t value.
- a multiple regression equation represented by the following equation 11 is assumed.
- explanatory variable X it is desirable to use standardized data in order to conduct an appropriate analysis excluding the effect of disparity between indicators regarding the unit and scale of indicators.
- Equation 11 the value of the constant term partial partial regression coefficient ⁇ included in Equation 11 is calculated by an estimation method called a least square method.
- the least square method is a method that minimizes the sum of squares of the residual between the observed value and the theoretical value.
- Equation 11 first, given the value of the explanatory variable X, the theoretical value of the objective variable ⁇ is ⁇ + ⁇ 5 (i3 X). Is
- Equation 12 The residual ⁇ is calculated using Equation 12 below.
- Q in the equation is a value calculated as the sum of squared residuals. Since the least squares method minimizes the sum of squares of the residuals, it is necessary to minimize the Q value in Equation 13 above to calculate the constant term partial regression coefficient / 3.
- the value of the constant term partial partial regression coefficient j3 is obtained by partially differentiating the above equation 13 with ⁇ i and ⁇ i, respectively, and solving these simultaneous equations. Specifically, it is as shown in the following formula 14 and formula 15.
- the standard regression coefficient corresponding to the standardized explanatory variable (hereinafter referred to as “standard partial regression coefficient”) is separately calculated in accordance with the standardization of the index data used for the explanatory variable. There is a need to.
- step S115 After calculating partial regression coefficient (and standard partial regression coefficient) ⁇ , the significance of each factor used for explanatory variable X is tested in step S115. Specifically, first, the explanatory variable X
- null hypothesis Set a hypothesis that the variable Y will not be useful at all (hereinafter “null hypothesis”). This null hypothesis is shown by the partial regression coefficient (and standard partial regression coefficient) ⁇ force 3 ⁇ 4.
- the hypothesis used for the test is an alternative hypothesis in which the test is performed assuming that the explanatory variable is useful for predicting the objective variable. Any of these hypotheses may be used depending on the purpose and nature of the analysis. Also, it is possible to conduct a test based on both hypotheses and adopt one of the hypotheses.
- the t value is a numerical value indicating the statistical reliability of the calculated explanatory variable value.
- the t-distribution is a probability density variable that estimates the range of the average value of a certain finite number of sample data and its population.
- This boundary line is called a significance level.
- the significance level is expressed by the probability that the calculated t value can occur on the t distribution.
- the significance level is set to 5%. This indicates that the hypothesis is rejected when the probability of occurrence on the calculated t-value force ⁇ distribution is in the range of 5%. Based on this significance level, the area that accepts the hypothesis is the accepted area, and the area that rejects the hypothesis is the reject area.
- the partial regression coefficient / 3 related to the explanatory variable X is statistically significant, and it is determined that the factor used for the explanatory variable X contributes to the explanation of the objective variable ⁇ .
- the criterion for judging the significance of explanatory variables is not limited to t values only. The probability of exceeding can also be judged by the P value, which is expressed as an absolute value.
- step S116 the contribution ratio of each factor (explanatory variable) to the objective variable Y is calculated.
- the contribution rate is calculated by dividing the standard partial regression coefficient of each factor calculated in step S114 by the sum of the standard partial regression coefficients of all factors. After that, the calculated value is displayed as a percentage.
- step S117 the goodness of fit of the multiple regression equation used for the analysis of the embodiment of the present invention is tested.
- a coefficient of determination is used as a scale for testing the goodness of fit of multiple regression equations.
- the coefficient of determination is an index that expresses how much a given multiple regression equation can explain the fluctuation of the observed value of the objective variable.
- fluctuation is the variation from the average value of each point.
- the coefficient of determination is represented by R 2, the variation of the theoretical value of the objective variable Y derived by multiple regression equation is calculated by dividing the variation of the observed values of Y. Specifically, the following
- the value of the coefficient of determination R 2 representing the fit of the regression equation increases as the increase by increasing the explanatory variables. This does not mean that the apparent fit is getting better and that the explanatory power of the multiple regression equation is high. Therefore, in order to make up for the shortcomings of this coefficient of determination R 2 , the fitness of the multiple regression equation is tested using the coefficient of determination R 2 ′ with adjusted degrees of freedom.
- the coefficient of determination R 2 ′ with adjusted degrees of freedom is a value obtained by adjusting the coefficient of determination R 2 in consideration of not only the explanatory variables that determine the multiple regression equation but also the number of variables taken as samples. It is.
- the degree of freedom is a value obtained by subtracting the average value calculated for the sample force from the number of samples. For example, if there are N samples, if one average value is determined, the last one of N is automatically determined, and the value that can be freely selected from the extracted samples is N_ It will be one.
- FIG. 19 shows a list of multiple regression analysis results.
- the list consists of partial regression coefficients, standard partial regression coefficients, t values, and contribution ratio values calculated for each of the five extracted factors.
- step S118 based on the above analysis results, the relationship between the profit-related index ROA ' ⁇ and a factor showing statistical significance, and the relationship between the factor and the various indicators constituting the factor. Create a relationship diagram showing.
- the created relationship diagram is stored in an internal database of 30cm.
- FIG. 20 shows the created relationship diagram.
- ROA- ⁇ factors indicating statistical significance, and indices constituting each factor are described, and the contribution rate based on the standard partial regression coefficient and the factor loading are added on the arrows. ing.
- the contribution ratio of factors to R0A' ⁇ is overwhelmingly high, with factor 3 (productivity) at 74%.
- Factor 3 productivity
- the “labor share” works to lower productivity. Therefore, in order to improve productivity, it is necessary to moderate the “labor share”, promote technological innovations indicated in “total factor productivity”, and improve management efficiency.
- the contribution rate to ROA * 5 is 15%, the second highest factor after factor 3 (productivity), and factor 4 (concentration of patents).
- the factor load amount of the index related to “patent concentration” is large as an index that constitutes factor 4 (concentration of patent 'technology). This can be considered to indicate, for example, that the “degree of concentration of patent applications” reflects the progress in selection and concentration of technology development.
- the factor load of “patent concentration” is larger than factor 4 (concentration of patent and technology). Increasing “concentration of patent application” prevents imitation of other companies, and It can be seen that this will lead to an increase in asset value and contribute to the expansion of earnings.
- step S12 principal component analysis processing is performed in step S12.
- a comprehensive index is created using the index that constitutes a significant factor obtained as a result of the multiple regression analysis and ROA ' ⁇ set as the objective variable, and the company is evaluated.
- the principal component analysis processing method is as described above, and a description thereof will be omitted.
- FIG. 21 shows a list representing eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the principal component analysis, and contribution rates and cumulative contribution rates.
- the contribution ratio of the first principal component is 47.57%, which is consistent with the results of factor analysis and multiple regression analysis, which are sufficiently high.
- Figure 22 shows a ranking table of company evaluations corresponding to principal component 1.
- step S9 company evaluation is performed by performing covariance structure analysis processing in step S19. Create company rankings in S13.
- a hypothesis about a causal relationship between variables is made. For hypotheses, if the relationship between phenomena is well known, a hypothesis model is created directly. If the relationship between phenomena is not well known, a hypothesis model is created after extracting the factors by factor analysis.
- the parameter is estimated according to the path diagram.
- the parameter is a numerical value that represents the state of the population distribution, and is a parameter.
- the least square method or the maximum likelihood estimation method is used as the parameter estimation method.
- GFI Goodness of Fit Index
- AGFI Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index
- an intellectual property strategic management (trinity management) model is constructed as a hypothetical model.
- the intellectual property strategic management (trinity management) model refers to a company that links business strategy 'R & D strategy' and intellectual property strategy, thereby leading to improvement in total factor productivity and corporate value evaluation.
- a comprehensive and comprehensive evaluation model That is. When evaluating companies, analyzing productivity-related indicators such as labor productivity and profit-related indicators such as ROA and ROE are very important factors. Evaluating value can lead management to the wrong direction. This is because these indicators are merely a cross-section of current business performance.
- the factor can be extracted by factor analysis and a hypothetical model can be created.
- the number of factors is determined by factor analysis based on the cumulative contribution rate and eigenvalue set in advance. For example, factors are determined based on a cumulative contribution ratio of 70% or more and an eigenvalue of 1 or more. Judgment criteria are not limited to the above, and can be set arbitrarily according to the purpose and nature of the observation.
- latent variable a latent variable that describes each factor. In the embodiment of the present invention, the following is used as this latent variable.
- Various indicators can be used as observation variables, and one example is shown as 79 indicators in Figs. Which one to use is selected by the user by extracting multiple combinations of indicators, analyzing each combination, and selecting the one with the highest degree of fitness.
- a diagram showing a causal relationship between variables is called a “path diagram”.
- the path diagram in Fig. 24 assumes the causal relationship between variables as follows.
- a one-way arrow is also drawn in (Operating profit margin).
- the company's R & D strategy is based on observation variable V (R & D cost ratio) and observation variable V (invention
- the minutes are set as error variables e and e, respectively.
- the latent variables f to f are
- latent variable f (Intellectual Property Strategic Management) is only the cause of latent variables f to f.
- Affected latent variable Coefficient X Caused latent variable + Error variable
- Exogenous variables are those that do not become variables (objective variables) on the left side of model equations. This is an endogenous variable, and at least one of the model equations is the variable (objective variable) on the left side.
- Equation 17 The example shown in Fig. 24 can be expressed by simultaneous linear equations as shown in Equation 17 below.
- V ⁇ X f + e
- Vector elements are latent variables that describe individual factors.
- v Observation variable vector.
- d Error variable vector.
- the vector element is the error variable for the vector element of f, or f itself when the jth element of f is an exogenous variable.
- the vector element is the error variable for the vector element of V or the kth element of V when V is an exogenous variable, V itself.
- Coefficient parameter row ⁇ I Coefficient parameter matrix A is composed of coefficient matrix A, coefficient matrix A, coefficient matrix A, and coefficient matrix A. abed
- A Coefficient matrix in which the coefficients ⁇ and f that express the defining force from the latent variable f to the observed variable v are arranged in kj elements b j k k
- Equation 22 is equivalent to Equation 17.
- FIG. 23 is a flowchart for explaining the processing operation in the company evaluation support apparatus. This process is executed by the CPU 301 of the company evaluation support apparatus 30 in FIG.
- step S191 it is determined that the causal model information assumed for the causal relationship is input from the input means 310.
- This causal model information is expressed by the simultaneous linear equations as described above based on a path diagram as shown in FIG. 24, for example.
- step S193 the parameter is estimated based on the generated latent variable vector f, exogenous variable vector d, exogenous variable vector e, coefficient parameter matrix A, and observed variable vector V.
- the parameter refers to each element of the exogenous variable vector d, exogenous variable vector e, and coefficient parameter matrix A.
- Equation 18 can be transformed as follows, where O is row 0 IJ and I is the identity matrix.
- This equation can be further transformed into the following equation 23 when I—A has a retrograde power.
- the variance covariance matrix ⁇ of V can be expressed by the following equation 25 using an expected value vector E [v] whose expected value is each element of the vector V .
- ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ [( ⁇ _ ⁇ [ ⁇ ]) ( ⁇ _ ⁇ [ ⁇ ]) ']
- Equation 26 E [w r ]... (Formula 25) [0155] Therefore, the variance-covariance matrix ⁇ v for the observed variable can be expressed as a parameter as in the following Equation 26 from Equation 25 and Equation 24.
- step S194 If ⁇ does not have the inverse matrix ⁇ , we cannot get the equation of Equation 23. In this case, it is determined in step S194 that the parameter cannot be estimated, and the process returns to step S191 to wait for new causal model information to be input.
- the parameter is estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method.
- ⁇ be a vector that has the coefficient parameter matrix ⁇ and E [uu '] in Eq. Since the variance-covariance matrix ⁇ of Equation 26 can be expressed by ⁇ , this is ⁇ ( ⁇ ).
- Fml which is arranged by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of Equation 27, and find ⁇ that maximizes Fml. This is because logarithmization can be handled as a monotonically increasing function and can be easily maximized.
- step S191 When finding ⁇ that maximizes the function Fml (or probability F (X
- causal model information based on the same path diagram which is imposed with a constraint condition for coefficient parameters, may be input, and the parameter may be estimated again.
- constraint conditions By imposing constraint conditions on coefficient parameters, the solution of simultaneous linear equations can be obtained uniquely.
- the parameter estimation method is not limited to the maximum likelihood estimation method.
- Other methods such as least squares, generalized least squares, elliptic least squares, elliptic generalized least squares, and ellipse reweighted least squares can be used.
- step S195 the goodness of fit and significance of the hypothesis model are tested.
- step S195 the fitness of the causal model is tested.
- GFI Goodness of Fit Index
- AGFI Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index
- GFI is an index that shows the power that the set causal model explains the data (observation variable, variance covariance matrix ⁇ v). The closer the GFI value is to 1, the better the model will be.
- AGFI lacks GFI (GFI improves despite the fact that the causal model is complicated and the stability of the parameter becomes worse) ) To compensate for the instability of the parameter from GFI. If GFI and / or AG FI are each greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold, it is determined that there is a goodness of fit.
- GFI or AGFI has already been obtained for another causal model, it may be determined that there is no goodness of fit if a result inferior to this is obtained.
- other indices may be used in combination for the fitness test.
- step S195 a significance test is performed for each parameter. Specifically, a linear equation corresponding to two variables connected by any one-way arrow in the path diagram is regarded as a regression equation, and the true coefficient matrix of the population is ⁇ ,
- step S191 If either the fitness or significance is not recognized, the process returns to step S191 and waits for new causal model information to be input. If the goodness of fit and significance are recognized, the process proceeds to the next step S196 to calculate an evaluation value. However, even when the goodness of fit and significance are recognized, it is possible to further verify the other causal models and select the one with the highest goodness of fit.
- the observed variable vector V force latent variable f for each company is calculated and used as the evaluation value.
- Figure 25 shows an example of a path diagram showing the results of covariance structure analysis for the evaluation of intellectual property strategic management companies.
- the path diagram shown in Fig. 25 shows the results after the hypothesis model is tested several times after the hypothesis is constructed.
- the intellectual property strategic management model has three factors: the “finance 'profitability” factor (management), the “patent strategy” factor (patent), and the “research and development input propensity” factor (R & D). It shows the structure with which the strategy is linked.
- the influence (contribution rate) of each factor to the “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Company” model (black) is “financial / profitability” factor is about 26%, the “R & D input propensity” factor (R & D) is about 17%, and the “patent strategy” factor (patent) power is S46%.
- the ratio between “financial 'profitability” and “patent strategy” is 0.17
- the ratio between “patent strategy” and “R & D input propensity” is 0.12
- the ratio between “R & D input ratio” and “financial-revenue power” is 0.34.
- indicators that externally evaluate “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Companies” are "MVA (Difference between Market Capitalization and Shareholders'Capital)","PBR (Price Net Assets Ratio)” (Market Evaluation Index), And ⁇ Overall The three are “productive productivity”.
- “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Company” exists between these three external indicators, “Financial & Profitability” factor, “R & D input propensity” factor, and “Patent application strategy” factor. It is set as a latent factor.
- the reason why the market valuation index is used as an external valuation index is that the market price that exceeds the book value corresponds to the evaluation of intangible assets that are off balance such as know-how of each company and intellectual property.
- the market price is less than the book value, the company assesses that the company has little or no ability to hold off-balanced intangible assets. You can think that you are.
- total factor productivity is used as an external index for evaluation of “strategic management of intellectual property”.
- total factor productivity is obtained by subtracting the increase / decrease rate of “equipment” and “labor force” from the increase / decrease rate of “added value” for each company. It is an index that measures "progress rate”.
- an “intellectual property strategic management company” is classified into three factors of business, research and development, and intellectual property, and an external evaluation index of MVA, PBR, and total factor productivity.
- MVA external evaluation index
- PBR total factor productivity
- the most suitable model fits as an indicator of the “financial 'profitability” factor are “capital investment efficiency”, “equity ratio”, “cost of sales ratio”, and “sales volume”
- other indicators that constitute the “patent strategy” factor include “willingness to acquire rights”, “force to check other companies”, and “Share of effective patents”.
- the definitions and calculation formulas for each indicator are as shown in the list of Figs.
- weighting (component of matrix Y) applied to each index to calculate each evaluation value in the evaluation value calculation step S196 is as shown in FIG. 26 in the example of FIG. Place of 10- 5 are rounded.
- Figures 27 to 31 show a list of company rankings that evaluated “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Companies” by the above covariance structure analysis.
- Figure 27 shows the overall evaluation ranking of “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Companies” and the respective company scores for the “Financial 'profitability” factor, the “R & D input propensity” factor, and the “patent strategy” factor. It is a list composed of The overall evaluation ranking of “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Companies” calculates the overall “total score” and standardizes each company with the highest score of 100 or 1000 points. Display “total score” in the order of high and low.
- FIG. 32B and FIG. The patents held by each group are evaluated based on multiple indicators that represent patent characteristics, and the results are displayed as company rankings.
- a company evaluation method it is possible to evaluate each company's potential value in more detail and more precisely.
- FIG. 32A and FIG. 33A are examples of scatter charts created for the company ranking power shown in FIG. 32B and FIG. 33B.
- Figure 32A shows that the patents held by any of the four major electronics companies in any IPC subgroup are classified into two indicators: the desire to acquire rights and the share of total effective patents. It is an example of a scatter diagram in which the results of evaluation based on the results are plotted as factor scores.
- Fig. 33A shows the two patents held by any of the four major electric industry companies in any IPC subgroup: the “checking power of other companies” and the “total number of effective patents”. It is an example of a scatter diagram in which the results evaluated based on the above are plotted as factor scores.
- FIG. 34 shows another example of a path diagram showing the results of covariance structure analysis for the evaluation of an intellectual property strategic management company.
- the intellectual property strategic management model includes the "financial 'profitability” factor (management), the "patent strategy” factor (patent), and the “research and development input propensity” factor ( It shows a structure in which three strategies of R & D are linked.
- the influence (contribution rate) of each factor on the “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Company” model black
- the “financial / profitability” factor is about 28%
- the “R & D propensity to buy” factor (R & D) is about 25%
- the “patent strategy” factor (patent) is 36%.
- the indicators that externally evaluate “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Companies” are "MVA (difference between market capitalization and shareholders'equity)” and “PBR (price net asset ratio). ) "(Market Evaluation Index) and “total factor productivity”.
- VVA difference between market capitalization and shareholders'equity
- PBR price net asset ratio
- Total factor productivity “(Market Evaluation Index) and “total factor productivity”.
- the “Intellectual Property Strategic Management Company” refers to the relationship between these three external indicators and the “Finance / Profitability” factor, the “R & D input propensity” factor, and the “Patent Application Strategy” factor. It is set as an existing latent factor.
- the principal component analysis is performed after the factor analysis and the multiple regression analysis are performed as the method for performing the corporate evaluation by selecting the index and performing the principal component analysis.
- the company evaluation method is not limited to the above method.
- the principal component analysis may be performed after performing multiple regression analysis without performing factor analysis and selecting an index having a high contribution rate to the objective variable.
- linear programming or nonlinear programming may be used as another company evaluation method. In this way, multiple types of company rankings can be created based on multiple company evaluation methods. Therefore, it is possible to create a group of companies that are candidates for inclusion in multiple stock portfolios from different perspectives.
- step S14 in order to select a stock portfolio company, one company (hereinafter abbreviated as “company”) is selected from the comprehensive ranking based on the company evaluation in step S13.
- the selection methods for a company are (1) simply selecting the top ranking company, (2) selecting a company with a standardization score of 1 or more in the principal component 1, and (3) the main component 1 and (4) The difference between the comprehensive ranking based on company evaluation and the ranking of other company evaluation factors falls within a predetermined range. There are methods such as selecting companies that exceed or are undervalued.
- step S301 a covariance structure analysis is performed, and in step S303, factor scores of the “patent strategy” factor, the “research and development input tendency” factor, and the “intellectual property strategic management company” factor are calculated. Then, in step S305, an over-Z underestimated company is calculated. Since steps S301 and S303 have already been described, a description thereof is omitted here. Therefore. First, the first over-Z underestimated company is explained.
- the top 20 companies in the descending order of the absolute value among the companies with positive factor score differences are the first undervalued companies.
- a company with a large positive factor score difference can be expected to be a highly competitive company compared to market evaluation.
- the companies with negative factor score differences for example, the companies with the lowest 20 companies in the descending order of absolute value are the first overvalued companies.
- a company with a large negative factor score difference can be assumed to be a company with low potential competitiveness compared to market evaluation.
- each company's “patent strategy” factor score, “R & D input tendency” factor score, and “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score We will standardize each of them, and select the companies with standardized “patent strategy” factors, standardized “property for R & D” factor, and standardized “intellectual property strategy management” factor scores.
- the average value becomes 0, so the magnitude relationship between the calculated value of the company to be measured and the average value can be expressed as a positive or negative relationship.
- the sum of the standardized “patent strategy” factor score of each company and the standardized “R & D input tendency” factor score is calculated, and the magnitude relationship with the average value of all companies is calculated.
- the factor scores are standardized, the average value is 0, and the sum of the factor scores is positive or negative.
- the standardized “Intellectual Property Strategic Management” factor score of each company is calculated, and the magnitude relationship with the average value of all companies is calculated. In this case as well, since the factor scores are standardized, the average value is 0, and the standardized “Intellectual Property Strategic Management” factor score of each company is positive or negative.
- the “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score is The company that exceeds the average value of the company is the second overvalued company.
- the sum of the standardized “patent strategy” factor score and the standardized “R & D propensity to buy” factor score is negative, and at the same time, the company with the standard ⁇ “Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score is positive. Become an overrated company. The above can be expressed by the following formula.
- step S307 selection of candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio is performed. Specifically, the first undervalued company, the second undervalued company, or a combination of the two companies are selected as candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio, and among these, 78 companies are included in the stock portfolio. Select a company. Alternatively, a group of companies selected as the first over- / under-valued company, a group of companies extracted as the second over- / under-valued company, or a combination of both companies can be selected as candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio. From these, companies with stock portfolios can be selected.
- the portfolio can have a risk hedging function.
- Figures 36 and 37 show a list of undervaluable companies and candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio of overvalued companies.
- “Under 1”, “Under 2”, “Under 12”, “Over 1”, “Over 2”, The notation “Excessive 12" is included.
- “Under 1” represents the company extracted as the first undervalued company
- “Under 2” represents the company extracted as the second undervalued company
- “Under 12” represents companies extracted by both the first undervalued company and the second undervalued company.
- “Over 1” represents the company extracted as the first overvalued company
- “Over 2” represents the company extracted as the second overvalued company
- “Over 12” represents companies extracted by both the first overvalued company and the second overvalued company.
- the list is listed in descending order from companies with the largest difference in the factor score of (“patent strategy” factor score) — (“Intellectual Property Strategy Management” factor score).
- Selection of stock portfolio companies may be performed based on the calculation result of each company's patent evaluation index for each company, as shown in step S309.
- a certain number of companies are excluded from candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio based on the calculation results of the above-mentioned company-specific patent evaluation indices. To do. As a result, the remaining group of companies that are not subject to exclusion will be preferentially included in the stock portfolio as companies recommended for inclusion. By doing so, companies with a high reputation based on the company-specific patent evaluation index can be preferentially included in the stock portfolio.
- the reason why the company-specific patent evaluation index is used is to derive the position of the company by comparing the patents owned by each company with the patents of other companies, and at the same time, consider the degree of concentration of technological development fields within the company. As a result, after adding patent information that could not be considered in the selection of stock candidates to be included in the primary stock portfolio, the potential growth potential of each company was evaluated, and further over / underestimated companies were identified. Because it becomes possible.
- patent application data of all companies is extracted from the obtained company evaluation index data such as intellectual asset related indices.
- the number of various patent applications is calculated from there.
- patent application data for the latest available year is extracted. Since the publication date of the patent publication is June 1 year from the patent filing date, the patent application data for the latest fiscal year will be available three years before the current date. Therefore, the year three years before the current year is the latest available year, and this latest year is defined as the current year.
- the excess growth rate represents the degree of excess of the growth rate of each company relative to the growth rate of all companies in each IPC subclass.
- IPC subclasses Number of patent applications by IPC subclass by current company / Number of all company patent applications by current IPC subclass
- the excess growth rate of each company is calculated for each of the top three IPC subclasses. Specifically, first, the growth rate of each company is calculated for each of the top three IPC subclasses. In calculating the growth rate of each company, first, the increase / decrease value of the number of patent applications in the two periods is calculated by subtracting the number of patent applications by IPC subclass by current company by the number of patent applications by IPC subclass by previous period company. Next, the growth rate of the number of patent applications in two periods is calculated by dividing the calculated increase or decrease in the number of patent applications in two periods by the number of patent applications by IPC subclass by company in the previous term. The IPC subtitles for the two periods calculated in this way The growth rate of each company's patent applications is the growth rate of each company.
- the increase / decrease value of the number of patent applications in the two periods is calculated by subtracting the total company patent applications by IPC subclass in the current period from the total company patent applications by IPC subclass in the previous period.
- calculate the growth rate of the number of patent applications in the two periods by dividing the calculated increase / decrease in the number of patent applications in the two periods by the number of all company patent applications by IPC subclass in the previous term.
- the growth rate of all company applications by IPC subclass for the two periods calculated in this way is used as the growth rate for all companies.
- the above can be expressed by the following formula.
- a positive value for this increment indicates that each company's growth rate in each IPC subclass is greater than the overall growth rate for that IPC subclass. Conversely, a negative increment indicates that the growth rate of each company in each IPC subclass is less than the overall growth rate of that IPC subclass.
- the relative share of each company's amended patent application is calculated by weighting the simple relative share by top 3 IPC subclass calculated in this way with the excess growth rate of each company. Specifically, it is calculated by multiplying the simple relative share by top 3 IPC subclass by the value of each company's excess growth rate plus one. Adding 1 to the excess growth rate of each company , Regardless of whether the excess growth rate of each company is positive or negative, adding 1 will prevent it from becoming negative, and weighting will change the value of simple relative share by top 3 IPC subclass from positive to negative This is because it can be avoided.
- the above can be expressed by the following formula.
- top 3IPC subclass simple relative share by top 3IPC subclass X (1 + excess growth rate)
- the relative share of the top 3 IPC subclass current period revised patent application is calculated. Specifically, the average value is calculated by dividing the value of the revised patent application relative share calculated by the top 3 IPC subclasses by 3, which is the number of IPC subclasses of the top 3 IPC subclasses. With the above procedure, the revised patent application relative share average value for the top 3 total IPC subclasses of each company was obtained.
- Patent concentration refers to the share of the number of patent applications for each IPC subclass in the total number of patent applications for a given period for each company, and is used to measure the concentration of the company's technology development field. It is an indicator to do.
- the patent evaluation index for each company is calculated by multiplying the average value of the relative share of corrected patent applications for the top three cumulative IPC subclasses of each company by the patent concentration degree.
- the degree of influence that the size of the company reflects directly in the size of the value is reduced by multiplying the average value of the relative share of the revised patent application by the degree of patent concentration.
- Patent evaluation index by company Top 3 patent applications by company IPC subclass modified patent application relative share average X patent concentration ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ (Formula 33)
- step S311 based on the company-specific patent evaluation index calculated as described above, a certain number of companies are excluded as the primary stock portfolio candidates.
- companies with a patent valuation index of 5 or less are excluded.
- companies with a patent valuation index of 5 or more are excluded.
- the remaining group of companies, excluding excluded companies that have been excluded from the primary stock portfolio candidates is set as the secondary stock portfolio candidate.
- Figures 38 and 39 are lists of candidates for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio of undervalued companies and overvalued companies.
- Column of “Underestimated company extraction criteria” and “Overestimated company extraction criteria” shown in the figure “Under 1”, “Under 2”, “Under 12”, “Over 1”, “Over 2”, The notation “Excessive 12" is included. The meaning of these notations is the same as described in the explanation of the list of stock selection candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio in Figs.
- Figures 38 and 39 show the values calculated for each company by the company-specific patent evaluation index. Of these, the underestimated companies in Figure 38 have a company-specific technical evaluation index value of 5 or more.
- the companies listed above are listed in the list of candidates for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio, and those whose company technical evaluation index is 5 or less are listed in the list of excluded companies.
- companies with a technology evaluation index of 5 or less are listed in the list of candidates for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio, and the value of the company technical evaluation index is 5. These companies are listed in the list of excluded companies.
- the average relative share of all IPC subclass modified patent applications of the company classifies the patent applications of the companies to be evaluated based on the IPC (international patent classification) subclass and application period, and the companies to be evaluated apply for patents in each period.
- IPC international patent classification
- the company-specific patent evaluation index may be an index that takes into account the "dominant patent ratio".
- This ⁇ priority patent ratio '' is based on the other company's restraining power and the degree of willingness to acquire rights for each individual patent calculated using historical information including the ratio of opposition, the ratio of citations of other companies, and the ratio of the number of appeals. This is the ratio of dominant patents to the total patents owned by each company.
- the “dominant patent ratio” the number of patent applications (N) in the IPC subclass of the company to be evaluated is set as the population (P).
- the ratio of dominant patents in the total number of patent applications (N) by IPC subclass by company is used as the population ratio.
- the proportion of dominant patents in the total number of patent applications by IPC subclass by company, measured by the ratio of oppositions, the number of times cited by other companies, and the ratio of appeals obtained from historical information is the sample ratio (p ). Since the proportion of true superior patents forming the population ratio (P) cannot be measured, the population ratio (P) is estimated from the sample ratio (p).
- interval estimation for the population ratio (P) is performed, and a confidence interval of 95% confidence is obtained.
- P population ratio
- N number of patent applications
- the number of patent applications (N) is defined as the“ minimum premium ”.
- the average value obtained by subtracting 0 from the minimum premium of each IP C subclass is defined as the “average minimum premium”. It is also acceptable to calculate the company-specific patent evaluation index in consideration of this “average minimum premium”.
- the company-specific patent evaluation index may be an index reflecting the “dominant patent ratio”.
- This “priority patent ratio” is based on the other company's check-in force and the degree of willingness to acquire rights for each individual patent calculated using historical information including the ratio of objections to be challenged, the ratio of the number of times cited by other companies and the ratio of the number of appeals This is the ratio of dominant patents to all patents owned by each company.
- the principal component analysis of the above-mentioned stock selection candidates for the primary stock portfolio is used.
- the recommended companies may be selected based on the principal component score of each company.
- factor analysis is performed using the index calculated using Equation 33 or 34 above and a predetermined number of indicators including other intellectual asset-related indicators for candidates for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio.
- the indicators are aggregated based on the selected factors, and multiple regression analysis is performed using the extracted factors and the revenue-related indicators. You can conduct component analysis and select companies recommended for inclusion based on the principal component scores for each company.
- a covariance structure is used by using the indicators calculated by Equation 33 or 34 above and a predetermined number of indicators including other intellectual asset related indicators as observation variables. Analysis may be performed to select companies that are recommended for inclusion.
- selection methods are pre-installed in the program and can be selected automatically or by the user. It is possible to execute by selection.
- the top 10 companies and 20 companies are selected from the rankings shown in FIGS.
- step S15 the stock investment ratio for the selected stock portfolio company is selected.
- Figure 4035 is a flowchart showing the investment ratio selection process.
- step s151 the stock portfolio company data is acquired from the internal database 30A.
- step S152 an index is selected, and publicly available index value movement data is acquired.
- the index is a stock index that indicates the overall market trend. Indexes include, for example, Nikkei Average, TOPIX, S & P500, etc.
- FIG. 41 shows a list representing a set ⁇ TD * ⁇ of price / motion data of the selected index *. In the embodiment of the present invention, price data for the past two years is acquired. However, the period for acquiring data is not limited to this, and an arbitrary period can be set.
- the expected return and risk of the index are calculated.
- the expected return is the rate of return expected to be obtained from the investment.
- the rate of return of asset X is Rx
- the expected return is expressed as E (Rx).
- the expected return can be calculated by a method that averages the rate of return determined from the price trend of the index over a certain period. Specific calculation methods include arithmetic average method based on probability density, weighted arithmetic average method weighted by recent years, geometric average method, moving average method, and so on. The method can be adopted. In the embodiment of the present invention, the weighted arithmetic average method weighted by the most recent year is selected.
- step SI 54 price fluctuation data is acquired for each stock of individual companies (hereinafter referred to as "individual stocks") that constitute stock stocks.
- step S155 for each individual issue, excess returns based on actual stock price movements
- the excess return (h) indicates how much the rate of return of individual stocks exceeds or falls below the rate of return of the index.
- Sensitivity (/ 3) is a coefficient indicating the relationship between the price movement of individual stocks and the price movement of the index.
- the residual ( ⁇ ) is a value generated based on factors unique to the company that is the subject of an individual issue.
- FIG. 43 is a chart showing the calculated values of ⁇ , ⁇ , and ⁇ .
- the chart in Figure 43 shows four types of tables: “Regression Statistics”, “ANOVA”, “Residual Output”, and “Probability”, and two graphs, “Observation Value Graph” and “Normal Probability Graph”. And are displayed.
- step S156 the theoretical stock price for each individual issue is calculated.
- the purpose of calculating the theoretical stock price here is to calculate the stock price that appropriately reflects the company's potential competitiveness using R & D cost related indicators and intellectual asset related indicators, and to correct the parameters for each individual stock. It is. This allows for a better estimate of expected return and risk.
- the theoretical stock price in the embodiment of the present invention is the amount obtained by adding the capital of the company to the sum of the present value of the remaining profits obtained by subtracting the return required by the fund provider from the profits obtained from the business activities. Is calculated by dividing the estimated market capitalization by the total number of issued shares.
- FIG. 44 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for calculating the theoretical stock price.
- step S 1561 evaluation index data, stock price data, etc. of the selected stock portfolio company are acquired from the internal database 30 ⁇ .
- step S1563 a theoretical value after tax is calculated using the acquired corporate evaluation index-related data.
- total business profit is the profit calculated by adding the cost-processed R & D expenses back to operating profit, plus patent royalties.
- the primary reason for using gross business profit rather than operating profit is to understand the profit that the company had secured before deducting R & D expenses.
- FIG. 45 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for calculating the theoretical value of gross business profit after tax.
- step S15631 corporate evaluation index-related data including intellectual asset-related indexes is acquired from the internal database 30A.
- step S15633 it is selected whether or not to perform factor analysis processing. If it is selected to perform factor analysis processing, in step S15635, factor analysis is performed on the obtained index data to extract main factors. Then, each index is aggregated for each extracted factor.
- the processing procedure for factor analysis is the same as the procedure performed in the process of evaluating companies that are candidates for inclusion in stock portfolios, so the explanation is omitted.
- Figure 46 shows a list of factor analysis results. As a result of factor analysis, three factors were extracted: factor 1 (intellectual asset stock), factor 2 (productivity), and factor 3 (concentration of patents and technology).
- step S15637 of Fig. 45 a multiple regression analysis is performed using the factors extracted by the factor analysis process as explanatory variables and R0A '/ 3 as the objective variable as a profit-related indicator.
- R ⁇ A' ⁇ is the ratio of the total business profit generated by each company in each fiscal year to the total assets.
- the formula for calculating ROA- ⁇ is as shown in Equation 35 below.
- ROA- ⁇ Total business profit ⁇ Total assets (Formula 35)
- Revenue-related indicators used for objective variables are not limited to ROA- ⁇ , and any income-related indicator can be used depending on the purpose and nature of the analysis.
- step S15639 in Fig. 45 the theoretical value of ROA- ⁇ is calculated.
- factor 1 integer asset stock
- factor 2 productivity
- ROA ' used as the objective variable was used as the dependent variable.
- Figure 48 shows a regression line graph showing the relationship between Factor 1 and Factor 2 and ROA' ⁇ . The theoretical value of ROA- ⁇ can be obtained from the points on this regression line.
- step S15637 If factor analysis is not performed in step S15633, multiple regression analysis is performed in step S15637 based on the index data acquired in step S15631. In this case, an index with a high contribution rate to the objective variable ROA ' ⁇ is selected, and the regression line is derived with the selected index as the independent variable and RO ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ as the dependent variable. Further, the method of calculating the ROA ′ ⁇ theoretical value in step S 15639 is not limited to factor analysis and multiple regression analysis alone. For example, it is possible to calculate the theoretical value of ROA ' ⁇ by using covariance structure analysis.
- step S15641 a theoretical value of total business profit is calculated.
- the theoretical value of total business profit is obtained by multiplying the theoretical value of ROA- ⁇ by the total assets of the company.
- step S15643 the value of R & D expenses to be deducted from the theoretical value of total business profit is calculated.
- R & D expenses are recorded as a lump sum for accounting purposes.
- R & D is conducted for the purpose of expanding profits through subsequent commercialization and commercialization. For this reason, it is appropriate to consider the portion of R & D expenses that contribute to corporate profits as assets rather than expenses. Therefore, investment in R & D is regarded as an investment rather than an expense, and the loss portion that does not function as an asset is calculated as an amortized expense for each year, just like other fixed assets. And by deducting the calculated amortization expense The remaining R & D expenses (R & D expenses after depreciation) are calculated as assets.
- this depreciation cost As a method of calculating this depreciation cost, first, it is measured what kind of intellectual assets are generated by R & D funds input as inputs and what kind of results the assets lead to. There is an approach based on macroscopic corporate evaluation. As a second calculation method, a detailed analysis of the number of applications and the contents of each application is conducted for each company, the competitiveness of the company in the patent and technology development competition market is indexed, and its technology development characteristics are estimated. There is an approach based on typical patent information analysis. In the embodiment of the present invention, it is assumed that there will be no loss associated with research and development, and depreciation expenses are not deducted.
- step S15645 a theoretical operating profit value is calculated.
- the theoretical value of operating profit here is the theoretical value including the royalty income such as patent fees.
- the theoretical operating profit is calculated by subtracting the research and development expenses calculated in step S15643 from the theoretical total profit. In the embodiment of the present invention, the entire cost of research and development is deducted from the theoretical value of total business profit.
- Figure 45 shows a list of actual and theoretical calculation results of operating profit including royalty income such as ROA- ⁇ , total business profit, and patent fees by year for specific companies.
- step S15647 a theoretical value after tax is calculated.
- the theoretical value of operating profit after tax is calculated by deducting corporate tax from the theoretical value of operating profit including royalty income such as patent fees. Specifically, it is as shown in Equation 36 below.
- Theoretical value of operating profit after tax Theoretical value of operating profit (including royalty income such as patent fees) X (l—corporate tax rate) ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ (Formula 36)
- step S15649 the theoretical value of total business profit after tax is calculated.
- the theoretical total profit after tax is calculated by adding the R & D expenses calculated in step S15643 to the theoretical profit after tax.
- the theoretical value of total business profit after tax in the embodiment of the present invention uses the theoretical value of operating profit after tax (including royalty income such as patent fees) and the average value for three periods of research and development expenses. .
- the length of the period to be adopted is not limited to this and can be set arbitrarily.
- WACC weighted capital cost
- WACC Weighted capital cost
- WACC is an abbreviation for Weighted Average Cost Of Capital. It represents the minimum amount of return required by the fund provider.
- the weighted average refers to averaging the costs incurred by the company's funding source, debt and shareholders' equity, with the amount raised.
- Equation 37 The formula for calculating WACC is as shown in Equation 37 below.
- Cost of invested capital market value of interest-bearing debt / market value of company X debt cost X (1—corporate tax rate) + market value of stock Z market value of company X cost of equity capital ⁇ ⁇ • (Formula 37)
- the method for calculating the cost of capital is not limited to Equation 37 above.
- step S1567 the theoretical economic excess profit is calculated by subtracting the invested capital cost calculated in step S1565 from the theoretical total profit after tax.
- the theoretical economic excess profit is the theoretical value of the residual profit after deducting the cost of invested capital from the theoretical value of total business profit after tax.
- Equation 38 The formula for calculating the theoretical economic excess profit is shown in Equation 38 below.
- Theoretical economic excess profit Theoretical value of total business profit after tax (3 period average) Invested capital cost ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ (Formula 38)
- a discount rate is a type of interest rate that is used to calculate a company's future profits back to their present value.
- the discount rate is calculated using the Capital Asset Valuation Model (CAPM).
- Capital Asset Valuation Model (CAPM) is Capital Asset
- step S1571 the theoretical market surplus value is calculated by dividing the theoretical economic excess profit by the discount rate.
- the theoretical market value added is equal to the sum of the discounted present value of theoretical economic excess profits in the future period.
- Theoretical market value added is a theoretical value for the value of a company's off-balance sheet assets in the market.
- theoretical market value added is the difference between a company's potential market value and its capital, and represents the value considered to have been created in excess of the capital invested in the company.
- the formula for calculating the theoretical market added value is as shown in Equation 40 below.
- Theoretical market value added Theoretical economic excess profit ⁇ Discount rate ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ (Equation 40)
- step S1573 the capital of the company is calculated.
- Shareholders' equity is the net assets of a company, that is, the net assets of a company.
- a three-year average value is used.
- step S1575 an estimated market capitalization is calculated.
- Estimated market capitalization is calculated by adding the three-year average of capital calculated in step S1573 to the theoretical market value added.
- the formula for calculating the estimated market capitalization is as shown in Equation 41 below.
- step S1577 a theoretical stock price is calculated.
- the theoretical stock price is calculated by dividing the calculated estimated market capitalization by the total number of issued shares.
- the formula for calculating the theoretical stock price is as shown in Equation 42 below.
- Theoretical stock price Estimated market capitalization / Total number of issued shares ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ (Formula 42)
- the calculation method of the theoretical stock price is not limited to the embodiment of the present invention.
- the theoretical stock price can be calculated based on the dividend of stock. These methods can be selected arbitrarily according to the purpose of calculating the theoretical stock price and the nature of the calculation target.
- the calculated theoretical stock price is stored in the internal database 30 km.
- step S1579 the calculation result of the theoretical stock price is displayed on the display screen together with the actual stock price.
- a list of theoretical stock price calculation results and actual stock price fluctuation data Output tables and graphs to printer 31.
- FIG. 50 shows a list of calculation results of theoretical stock prices.
- the list shows company name, year, actual stock price and theoretical stock price.
- the calculated theoretical stock prices are often higher than the actual stock prices. This is because not only management's financial-related indicators but also R & D cost-related indicators and intellectual asset-related indicators can be used to provide an overview of intellectual assets created by companies and the contribution of intellectual assets to corporate profits.
- R & D cost-related indicators and intellectual asset-related indicators can be used to provide an overview of intellectual assets created by companies and the contribution of intellectual assets to corporate profits.
- As a result of the evaluation it was based on having been able to calculate a stock price that appropriately reflected the potential competitiveness of the company. From this result, it can be judged that many of the current stock prices of a given company shown in FIG. 50 are cheaper than the potential corporate value of the company. In addition, if there is no problem in this part other than the business activities based on the main business of the company, it can be judged that there is a great expectation that the stock
- step S157 the parameters (ii, ⁇ , ⁇ ) for each individual stock calculated based on the actual stock price are corrected by the theoretical stock price.
- the method for correcting the parameters of the individual brands is not limited to the above.
- the theoretical excess profit (''), theoretical sensitivity (/ 3 '), and theoretical residual ( ⁇ ') by comparing directly with the index. .
- a wide range of analysis methods such as statistical analysis using nonlinear stock price input information and nonlinear analysis methods can be applied.
- step S158 the expected return and risk for each individual issue are calculated based on the calculated theoretical excess revenue '), theoretical sensitivity ('), and theoretical residual ( ⁇ ').
- the expected return variance ⁇ 2 is calculated. Specifically, it is as shown in Equation 44 below.
- Risk ⁇ is the positive square root of variance ⁇ 2 .
- step S159 the expected return and risk of the entire stock portfolio are calculated based on the expected return and risk calculated for each individual issue.
- the expected return for the entire equity portfolio is calculated.
- the expected return of the entire stock portfolio is expressed as E (Rp) and is calculated based on Equation 45 below.
- ⁇ ′ represents the theoretical excess profit ( ⁇ ′) of the entire stock portfolio.
- ⁇ ′ represents the theoretical sensitivity ( ⁇ ,) of the entire stock portfolio.
- E (R *) represents the expected return of index *.
- the theoretical excess earnings ( ⁇ ') of the entire stock portfolio is a weighted average of ⁇ ' of individual stocks by holding ratio.
- the theoretical sensitivity ( ⁇ ,) of the entire stock portfolio is also a weighted average of / 3 'of individual stocks by the holding ratio.
- the risk of the stock portfolio is calculated.
- the risk of the entire stock portfolio is expressed by ⁇ , and the variance ⁇ 2 of the entire stock portfolio is calculated. Specifically,
- ⁇ ′ 2 represents the variance of the theoretical sensitivity ( ⁇ ,) of the entire stock portfolio.
- ⁇ 2 is , Represents the variance of index *.
- the first term on the right-hand side is the product of the variance of the index * and the variance of ⁇ 'of the entire stock portfolio, so the value is affected by the price movement of the index.
- the second term is determined by the standard deviation ( ⁇ ) of the expected residual ( ⁇ ') of individual issues and the holding ratio (X) of individual issues, and is not related to the risk of index *.
- the first term on the right-hand side is called systematic 'risk (field risk) and the second term is called an systematic' risk (non-field risk).
- the risk of the entire stock portfolio consists of factors that are attributable to index * price movements and factors that are attributable to events unique to the stock portfolio.
- an efficient frontier is derived based on the calculated expected return and risk of the stock portfolio. Specifically, first, when the expected return of the stock portfolio is fixed, the holding ratio of the stock portfolio stock that minimizes the risk (hereinafter referred to as the “minimum risk holding ratio”) is calculated. Then, the minimum risk holding ratio corresponding to each expected return is calculated by changing the expected return of the stock portfolio to various values. The set of minimum risk holding ratios for each expected return obtained in this way is derived as an efficient frontier.
- “frontier” means the outer edge of the portfolio, and among all combinations and ratios of stocks, there are no combinations and ratios that are less risky with the same expected return.
- step S161 data on the risk free rate of the risk-free asset is acquired.
- risk-free assets are assets such as government bonds that guarantee a certain amount of income.
- the risk-free rate is the return of risk-free assets.
- the risk free rate of 10-year government bonds which is an indicator of long-term interest rates
- the risk free rate of 30-year bonds in the United States, are indicators of risk-free rates of risk-free assets.
- a capital market line is derived.
- the capital market line represents the relationship between the risk and return of a portfolio that incorporates risk assets such as stocks and risk-free assets It is a straight line.
- the capital market line is first derived by taking the risk-free rate of a risk-free asset as a fixed point and drawing a tangent line from there to the efficient frontier.
- step S163 the optimal holding ratio of stocks included in the stock portfolio is determined at the point of contact between the efficient frontier and the capital market line.
- Figure 52 is a graph showing an example where the efficient frontier and the capital market line achieve the optimal ownership ratio at the point of contact.
- the expected return E (R) value is likely to rise relatively. Or, at the same time, the value of the risk ⁇ of the theoretical stock price compared to the real stock price is likely to be reduced.
- step S164 the incorporation ratio for each individual issue in the stock portfolio is determined.
- the optimal ownership ratio is identified at the point of contact between the efficient frontier (2) and the capital market line (2) shown in Figure 53.
- Figure 54 shows an example of the theoretical incorporation ratio for each individual issue at the point of contact between the efficient frontier and the capital market line.
- Figure 55 shows an example of the actual incorporation ratio determined from the theoretical incorporation ratio. After determining the actual incorporation ratio, the investment ratio selection work is completed.
- the investment ratio selection method is not limited to the above.
- the investment ratio can be selected according to any predetermined criteria. For example, there are a method of simply allocating an equal number of shares to a stock portfolio company and a method of allocating an equal amount. Alternatively, there are a method of allocating proportionally to the company score, and a method of allocating to companies with a standardized value of 1 or 2 or more in the company ranking based on the principal component analysis. Or, there is a method of selecting the investment ratio using linear programming such as linear programming. The investment ratio can be selected for each company using either of these methods or by combining these methods.
- the investment ratio can be selected for all companies that do not select the stock portfolio companies to be selected in advance, or for the stock portfolio companies that include any group of companies. For example, calculate the investment ratio by calculating the risk and return for each target company and determining the optimal holding ratio at the point of contact between the efficient frontier and the capital market line derived as a result. It can also be selected.
- step S16 a stock portfolio is created and stored in the internal database 30A.
- step S 17 the price increase / decrease rate and return trend of the created stock portfolio are calculated, and if necessary, a list or graph that visually displays them is output. To finish.
- Fig. 56 is a list showing the stock price decline rate and the return trend of the stock portfolio of the top 10, 20 and 30 companies corresponding to Principal Component 1.
- Figure 57 shows a list of the stock price rises and returns for the top 10, 20 and 30 stock portfolios corresponding to Principal Component 2.
- FIG. 58 is a graph showing a comparative example of the rate of increase / decrease in stock prices.
- Figure 59 is a graph showing a comparative example of stock returns.
- the “intellectual asset concentration type” stock portfolio corresponding to principal component 1 is also the “intellectual asset polygon type” corresponding to principal component 2.
- the top 10 companies, 20 companies, and 30 companies all have a Nikkei average average, which is larger than TOPIX.
- step S313 the selection of the second investment ratio, which replaces the selection of the first investment ratio, will be described with reference to FIGS.
- the second investment ratio is selected using the same configuration as that shown in FIGS. 1 and 2 in the first embodiment, as shown in FIGS. Since the same processing as the processing of FIGS. 15, 18, and 23 is performed, illustration and detailed description of these common points are omitted.
- the investment ratio selection process shown in FIG. 60 is performed instead of the investment ratio selection process of FIG. 40 in the selection of the first investment ratio.
- the calculation of the theoretical stock price and the calculation of the theoretical profit after tax shown in Figures 44 and 45 in the selection of the first investment ratio need not be performed.
- Fig. 60 is a flowchart showing the investment ratio selection operation in the selection of the second investment ratio.
- the same steps as those in Fig. 40 in the selection of the first investment ratio are denoted by the same reference numerals. Detailed description is omitted.
- the same processing as in Figure 40 is performed up to step S155, but at the same time, the recommended company for inclusion is selected (step S257), and the minimum inclusion of recommended companies for inclusion is selected. It differs from the selection of the first investment ratio in that the ratio is set (step S259).
- step S251 data of a candidate company for inclusion in the primary stock portfolio is read.
- step S253 a fixed frame for incorporating the brands recommended for inclusion in the total investment funds is determined.
- 50% of the total invested funds is set as an inclusion frame for recommended inclusion issues.
- step S255 data of a candidate company for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio is read.
- step S257 a candidate company for inclusion is selected from the candidate companies for inclusion in the secondary stock portfolio.
- the “patent strategy” factor score which is the extraction criterion of the first over / under-rated company, and “ The top 10 companies with the largest score difference are selected from the underestimated companies whose factor score difference with the “strategic management” factor score is positive.
- the factor score average which is the extraction criterion for the second over / underestimated company
- the factor score difference which is the extraction criterion for the first oversized Z Differences
- the factor score difference is given priority over the factor score average difference because the latter is more direct in the gap between the evaluation of each company's results to date and the evaluation of future potential growth potential. This is because it is considered to be reflected in.
- selection of companies recommended for inclusion can be made not only from underestimated companies, but also from overestimated companies, or from both overrated and underrated companies. If you want to manage your stock portfolio for the purpose of short-term trading, you should include both over / undervalued companies. Alternatively, if the objective is long-term management of the stock portfolio, it is desirable to include only undervalued companies with high potential growth potential.
- Fig. 61 among the above-mentioned candidates for inclusion in the first stock portfolio, the undervalued companies are listed in descending order of the factor score difference between the "patent strategy" factor score and the "intellectual property strategy management" factor score. A partial list is shown. In addition, lines are drawn at the top 10 companies with a company-specific patent evaluation index value of 5 or more and a large factor score difference, indicating that these companies are recommended companies for inclusion. .
- the stock portfolio selection system 100 sets a minimum inclusion ratio for each share of the recommended company for inclusion.
- the methods for setting the minimum inclusion ratio are: (1) a method of evenly allocating the minimum inclusion ratio to each recommended company, (2) ranking of recommended companies and overall score obtained up to step S257 above. There is a method of allocating the ratio according to the situation.
- the total for all companies recommended for inclusion with the lowest inclusion ratio should be less than 100%.
- the inclusion frame for recommended inclusions is set to 50% in step S253, so the minimum incorporation ratio for each recommended company is 5% within this frame. And distribute this evenly.
- step S261 an expected return and a risk are calculated for each individual stock of undervalued companies (78 companies) among stock stock selection candidates for the first stock portfolio.
- the excess return based on the actual stock price that does not require calculation of theoretical excess return ( ⁇ '), theoretical sensitivity ( ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ and theoretical residual ( ⁇ ')) , Sensitivity (/ 3), and Residual ( ⁇ ) are used to calculate the expected return and risk.
- Risk ⁇ is the positive square root of variance ⁇ 2 .
- step S263 for the 10 recommended companies selected in step S257, the minimum inclusion ratio of 5% set in step S259 is incorporated prior to the selection of the investment ratio.
- Equation 49 Calculate the expected return and risk of the entire portfolio.
- E (Rp) the expected return of the entire stock portfolio.
- ⁇ excess earnings (() of the entire stock portfolio.
- ⁇ represents the sensitivity ( ⁇ ) of the entire stock portfolio.
- E (R *) represents the expected return of index *.
- ⁇ 2 represents the variance of sensitivity ( ⁇ ) of the entire stock portfolio. ⁇ 2 is
- the first term on the right-hand side is the product of the variance of the index * and the variance of ⁇ of the entire stock portfolio, so the value is affected by the price movement of the index.
- the second term is the standard deviation ( ⁇ ) of the residual ( ⁇ ) of individual issues and the individual issues. This is determined by the ownership ratio of (X) and is not related to the risk of the index *.
- the first term on the right-hand side is called systematic 'risk (market risk), and the second term is called unsystematic' risk (non-market risk).
- the risk of the entire stock portfolio consists of elements that are attributable to the price movement of the index * and elements that are attributable to events unique to the stock portfolio.
- an efficient frontier is derived based on the expected return and risk of the equity portfolio, taking into account the minimum inclusion ratio of recommended inclusion issues. Specifically, if the expected return of a stock portfolio consisting of candidates for inclusion in the first stock portfolio is made constant, the recommended inclusions above will not fall below the set minimum inclusion ratio. Also, the holding ratio (minimum risk holding ratio) of stocks with stock portfolio that minimizes risk is calculated. Next, the minimum risk holding ratio corresponding to each expected return is calculated by changing the expected return of the stock portfolio to various values. The set of minimum risk holding ratios by expected return obtained in this way is derived as an efficient frontier.
- the holding ratio that required the lowest risk among all combinations of holdings was sought.
- the holding ratio that gives the lowest risk is obtained under the constraint that “the holding ratio of recommended stocks does not fall below the minimum inclusion ratio”. Therefore, the minimum risk in selecting the second investment ratio may be greater than the minimum risk in selecting the first investment ratio.
- the selection of the second investment ratio minimizes risk by incorporating the recommended stocks with priority and combining them with other stocks.
- step S161 The processing subsequent to step S161 is the same as that of FIG. 40 for the first embodiment.
- Figure 62 shows the optimal holding ratio of stock portfolio stocks calculated at the point of contact between the efficient frontier and the capital market line (S161 to S163).
- these stocks show the variance ⁇ 2 and standard deviation ⁇ of the residual ⁇ , the expected return E (Rp) and variance ⁇ 2 of the entire portfolio, and the risk variance ⁇ .
- Figure 63 shows the actual incorporation ratios determined for each stock portfolio issue (S164). The above two companies whose optimal holding ratio is less than 0.5% are not able to actually be included in the portfolio. This completes the creation of the portfolio in step S315.
- the second investment ratio selection method is not limited to this.
- step S317 the transition of the portfolio is calculated and output as necessary.
- Figure 64 shows an example of the trend of the stock price decline and return of the stock portfolio.
- the ratio of the recommended companies to be included in the stock portfolio is 50% by the method of equally allocating the minimum ratio to the recommended companies. Shows the stock price trend with the value of 0%.
- This figure is a graph showing the comparison of the actual return of the stock portfolio for one year in 2004 and the TOPIX trend in the same period. Comparing the actual return, even if the incorporation ratio of the incorporation recommended companies as a whole is 50% by the method of evenly distributing the incorporation ratio to the inclusion recommended companies, the inclusion ratio of the recommended companies is 0%. All of these products are also able to get a larger return than TOPIX.
- the method of evenly allocating the incorporation ratio to the companies recommended for inclusion makes the incorporation ratio of the companies recommended for inclusion 50%. It can be seen that the increase in the actual return increases with time. This can be evaluated as having been able to enjoy the benefits of the upward revision of the stock price based on the growth potential of the company by including a certain percentage of the recommended companies that were specifically extracted by evaluating potential competitiveness in the stock portfolio.
- a new service system for constructing a stock portfolio with higher profitability than before can be provided to investors, etc. in conjunction with the index. It becomes possible.
- a new stock portfolio selection method can be provided as a service.
- each client can use this system individually to realize a highly profitable stock portfolio.
- the stock portfolio selection device, stock portfolio selection method and stock portfolio selection program according to the present invention are corporate evaluation indexes including R & D cost related indicators, management 'financial related indicators, and intellectual asset related indicators. It is applied to the purpose of providing a highly profitable stock portfolio based on a comprehensive evaluation of the company based on the evaluation results.
Abstract
Description
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US11/885,788 US20080249957A1 (en) | 2005-03-07 | 2006-03-07 | Stock Portfolio Selection Device, Stock Portfolio Selection Method and Medium Storing Stock Portfolio Selection Program |
EP06728731A EP1876506A1 (en) | 2005-03-07 | 2006-03-07 | Stock portfolio selecting device, stock portfolio selecting method, and stock portfolio selecting program |
JP2007507134A JPWO2006095748A1 (ja) | 2005-03-07 | 2006-03-07 | 株式ポートフォリオ選択装置、株式ポートフォリオ選択方法及び株式ポートフォリオ選択プログラム |
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US11/205,219 | 2005-08-17 | ||
US11/205,219 US20060200395A1 (en) | 2005-03-07 | 2005-08-17 | Stock portfolio selection device, stock portfolio selection method and medium storing stock portfolio selection program |
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