JP2012106805A - System for estimating elevator out of service in earthquake - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system for highly accurately estimating elevators out of service at an earthquake which can estimate the number and distribution of elevators out of service regardless of an area where the earthquake occurs.SOLUTION: The system includes: an intensity distribution estimation means 2 that estimates the distribution of seismic intensity based on an epicenter and magnitude of the earthquake; a means 7 for estimating the elevators to be deactivated, the means for estimating the number of the elevators that are to be out of service based on the estimated intensity distribution; an seismometer 4 that is installed in an area 10 to be estimated and measures a wave form of seismic movement; a speed/acceleration ratio calculation means 5 that calculates a speed/acceleration ratio of the seismic movement based on the measured wave form of the seismic movement; and an intensity distribution correction means 6 that corrects the intensity distribution estimated by the intensity distribution estimation means 2 using the calculated speed/acceleration ratio. The means 7 for estimating the number of elevators to be out of service has a correction estimation means for estimating the number of elevators to be out of service using the corrected distribution by the intensity distribution correction means 6.

Description

  The present invention relates to a system for predicting the damage of an elevator during an earthquake, and more particularly to an elevator operation stoppage prediction system for an elevator that predicts the number and distribution of elevators that are in an operation stop state due to an earthquake.

  The elevator is equipped with a seismic detector, and when it detects a shake of a predetermined level or more, the operation is suspended, and it is restored after inspection by maintenance personnel. In order to quickly recover from a resting elevator, that is, a resting elevator, it is important to grasp the scale of the number of resting units and the area where the resting elevators are concentrated. By using these pieces of information, it is possible to immediately determine the necessity of calling for recovery personnel and requesting support, and it is possible to quickly establish a recovery system.

  As one of the conventional techniques for quickly grasping such an elevator that has become inactive, there is known an elevator remote monitoring system that predicts the number and distribution of outage elevators from information on the location of the epicenter and magnitude (for example, Patent Document 1). This remote monitoring system for elevators obtains the distribution of the magnitude of ground shaking such as seismic intensity and acceleration from information on the location and magnitude of earthquakes available at the initial stage of an earthquake, and based on this, the number of elevators that have stopped Predict distribution and total number.

  Further, as one of the conventional techniques for obtaining the seismic intensity distribution and the like from the epicenter position and the magnitude, an earthquake damage prediction system is known which is obtained by using a distance attenuation formula and the amplification degree of the ground with respect to the shaking (see, for example, Patent Document 2). . The above-mentioned distance attenuation formula is an empirical formula that determines how much the magnitude of the swing is attenuated according to the distance from the epicenter, and the amplification level of the above-mentioned ground is based on the characteristics of the surface ground of the ground. Accordingly, it indicates the degree to which the magnitude of shaking is amplified.

  Thus, the remote monitoring system of the prior art disclosed in Patent Document 1 and the earthquake damage prediction system of the prior art disclosed in Patent Document 2 are the elevators that are in a dormant state due to the occurrence of an earthquake. The distribution and the total number of the stopped units are predicted, but the distribution and the total number of the stopped units of these elevators need to be accurately predicted. Therefore, a conventional earthquake damage prediction system that predicts damage with high accuracy in consideration of differences in frequency components of earthquake shaking has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 3). This earthquake damage prediction system creates a database of earthquake-occurring areas and the frequency component of the seismic vibration that occurred in that area, and uses this to predict the damage in consideration of the frequency component of the tremor. To do.

JP 2008-201575 A Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2003-287574 Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2006-343578

  However, since the earthquake damage prediction system of the prior art disclosed in Patent Document 3 predicts the frequency component of the shaking using the database of the frequency component tendency of the shaking of the earthquake as described above, Requires a lot of seismic data. For this reason, it is difficult to construct a database for areas where there are few earthquakes. In addition, there is a concern that the accuracy of frequency component prediction is low in regions where the relationship between the earthquake-occurring region and the frequency component of shaking is low.

  The present invention has been made based on such a state of the art, and the purpose of the present invention is to provide an elevator that can accurately predict the number and distribution of elevators that have become dormant regardless of the area where the earthquake occurred. The purpose is to provide an operation stoppage prediction system during an earthquake.

  In order to achieve the above object, an elevator operation stoppage prediction system for an earthquake according to the present invention includes an intensity distribution prediction means for predicting an earthquake shake intensity distribution based on an earthquake source position and magnitude, In the elevator operation stoppage prediction system during an earthquake, the elevator stoppage number prediction means for predicting the stoppage number of elevators that are in a stop state from the strength distribution predicted by the strength distribution prediction means, the elevator stoppage number prediction means Is installed in an area where the number of elevator suspensions is predicted, and the ratio of the speed and acceleration of the earthquake motion is calculated from the earthquake waveform measuring means for measuring the waveform of the earthquake motion, and the waveform of the earthquake motion measured by the earthquake waveform measuring means. The speed / acceleration ratio calculation means for calculating the speed / acceleration ratio shown and the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means Correction means for correcting the strength distribution predicted by the strength distribution prediction means using the calculated speed / acceleration ratio, and the elevator stoppage number prediction means is corrected by the correction means. It has the correction | amendment prediction means which estimates the stoppage number of the said elevator using intensity distribution, It is characterized by the above-mentioned.

  The present invention configured as described above calculates the ratio of the speed and acceleration of the earthquake motion from the earthquake waveform measured by the earthquake waveform measuring means installed in the area where the outage is predicted, by the speed / acceleration ratio calculating means, and uses this to correct it. By correcting the intensity distribution of the earthquake shake by means, it is possible to obtain a prediction result that takes into account the difference in the frequency component of the earthquake shake. As a result, the number and distribution of elevators in a dormant state can be predicted with high accuracy regardless of the area where the earthquake occurred.

  According to the present invention, there is provided a system for predicting an outage during an earthquake according to the present invention. The system according to the present invention further includes an earthquake detector that detects a shake of the elevator due to an earthquake, and the strength distribution predicting unit predicts a distribution of seismic intensity. The velocity / acceleration ratio calculating means relates to a measured seismic intensity obtained from the seismic waveform measured by the seismic waveform measuring means and a frequency component of an earthquake shake sensed by the seismic detector. It is characterized by calculating the ratio with the maximum acceleration response. This configuration corrects the seismic intensity distribution by correcting the seismic intensity distribution by the ratio of the measured seismic intensity and the maximum acceleration response related to the frequency component of the seismic sensor detected by the elevator seismic detector. A prediction result can be obtained in consideration of the difference in frequency components. As a result, it is possible to improve the number of suspended elevators and the accuracy of distribution in the suspended state.

  The elevator operation stoppage prediction system for an earthquake according to the present invention further comprises a stop probability storage means for storing a stop probability indicating the probability that the elevator is in a stop state according to the strength of the earthquake. The elevator stoppage number predicting means calculates the stoppage probability corresponding to the intensity of earthquake shaking in each region in the area where the number of stoppages of the elevator is predicted from the intensity distribution corrected by the correction means. It is characterized by using the elevator to predict the number of stoppages of the elevator. If comprised in this way, the stoppage number of the elevator which became the stop state of each area | region in the area | region which carries out a stop prediction can be estimated after considering the stop probability of the elevator according to the strength of the earthquake.

  Further, in the elevator operation stoppage prediction system according to the present invention, the elevator stoppage number predicting means predicts the number of elevator stoppages from the strength distribution corrected by the correction means. A distribution map of the elevators that are in a dormant state is displayed using the dormancy probability corresponding to the intensity of earthquake shaking in each region within the area. If comprised in this way, the distribution of the elevator which became the dormant state in the area | region which carries out an outage prediction can be displayed in consideration of the difference in the frequency component of an earthquake shake.

  An elevator operation stoppage prediction system for an earthquake according to the present invention includes an intensity distribution prediction means for predicting an earthquake shake intensity distribution based on an earthquake source position and magnitude, and an elevator that is in a dormant state based on the intensity distribution. Elevator stoppage number prediction means for predicting the number of stoppages. Further, the present invention is an earthquake waveform measuring means that is installed in an area where the number of elevator rests is predicted by the elevator resting number predicting means, and that measures the seismic motion waveform. And a speed / acceleration ratio calculating means for calculating a speed / acceleration ratio indicating the ratio of the above and a correcting means for correcting the intensity distribution using the calculated speed / acceleration ratio. The elevator stoppage number predicting means has correction prediction means for predicting the number of elevator stoppages using the intensity distribution corrected by the correction means. Therefore, it is possible to obtain a prediction result that takes into account the difference in the frequency component of the shaking of the earthquake, and it is possible to predict with high accuracy the number of suspended elevators and their distribution, regardless of the area where the earthquake occurred. As a result, more reliable data can be obtained with respect to the number and distribution of elevators that are in a stopped state.

It is a figure which shows the structure of one Embodiment of the operation stop prediction system at the time of the earthquake which concerns on this invention. It is a figure explaining the process in which an earthquake motion is transmitted from a hypocenter to the earthquake detector with which this embodiment is equipped. It is a figure explaining the content of the ground amplification data memorize | stored in the ground amplification data storage means with which this embodiment is equipped. It is a figure explaining the content of the data of the sensor operation rate curve memorize | stored in the sensor operation rate curve data storage means with which this embodiment is equipped. The ratio between the predicted value of the number of elevators that have stopped and the actual value of the number of elevators that have actually become inactive when each seismic intensity distribution is not corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means provided in this embodiment It is a figure which shows the relationship. It is a figure which shows the velocity response spectrum of the earthquake C and the earthquake D which are shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the acceleration response spectrum of the earthquake C and the earthquake D which are shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the seismic intensity acceleration ratio of the prediction object area shown in FIG. 1, and a seismic intensity correction coefficient. The figure which shows the relationship between the ratio of the predicted value of the elevator stoppage number estimated by the elevator stoppage number prediction means provided in this embodiment and the actually measured value of the elevator stoppage number actually in a stop state, and each earthquake It is. It is a flowchart explaining operation | movement of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a display of the distribution map of the elevator of a dormant state displayed by the display means with which this embodiment is equipped.

  EMBODIMENT OF THE INVENTION Hereinafter, the form for implementing the operation stop prediction system at the time of the earthquake which concerns on this invention is demonstrated based on figures.

  As shown in FIG. 1, an embodiment of an elevator operation stop prediction system for an earthquake according to the present invention includes an earthquake information input means 1 for inputting earthquake information including an earthquake source position (including depth) and magnitude, Based on the location and magnitude of the earthquake, the intensity distribution predicting means for predicting the earthquake intensity distribution, for example, the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2 for predicting the seismic intensity distribution, and the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2 for prediction. Elevator stoppage number predicting means 7 for predicting the number of stoppages of the elevators that are in a stopped state from the intensity distribution is provided.

  In the present embodiment, the number of elevator rests is predicted by the ground amplification degree data storage means 3 for storing the amplification degree of the surface ground used in the prediction of the seismic intensity distribution by the seismic intensity distribution prediction means 2 and the elevator resting number prediction means 7. Seismic waveform measuring means, for example, a seismometer 4, and a seismic motion waveform measured by the seismometer 4, and The speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 for calculating the speed / acceleration ratio indicating the ratio, and the seismic intensity of the earthquake predicted by the seismic intensity distribution prediction means 2 using the speed / acceleration ratio calculated by the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 Correction means for correcting the distribution, that is, seismic intensity distribution correction means 6 is provided.

  Further, the present embodiment is a resting probability storage means for storing a resting probability indicating the probability that the elevator is resting according to the strength of the earthquake, for example, the seismic intensity observed during the earthquake and the sensor operation. The sensor operation rate curve data storage means 8 for storing the sensor operation rate curve data calculated from the elevator ratio (stop rate) and the elevator stoppage number and distribution calculated by the elevator stoppage number prediction means 7 And display means 9 for displaying a figure. The elevator resting number predicting means 7 has a correction prediction means (not shown) for predicting the number of resting elevators using the seismic intensity distribution corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6.

  Specifically, the earthquake information input means 1, seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2, ground amplification degree data storage means 3, speed / acceleration ratio calculating means 5, seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6, elevator rest number predicting means shown in FIG. 7. The sensor operating rate curve data storage means 8 and the display means 9 are configured as hardware and software and data in a computer system, for example. Further, the area 10 where the elevators that are in a dormant state are predicted is an area such as the urban area of a major city in a prefecture where there are many elevators, and the seismometer 4 has at least one for each of these areas. Preferably, a plurality of units, for example, about three units are installed. Furthermore, as shown in FIG. 2, the present embodiment includes earthquake detectors 21 and 22 that are installed in a building 20 equipped with an elevator and sense the swing of the elevator due to an earthquake.

  Next, prediction of the number of elevator suspensions in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS.

  As shown in FIG. 2, in the ground that is the epicenter of the earthquake, there are strata in which seismic waves can be considered to be transmitted at a substantially uniform speed, and strata in which the transmission speed of seismic waves varies greatly depending on the properties of the sedimentary layer that constitutes the ground. In general, the former is called the earthquake base and the latter is called the surface ground. The transmission 26 of the ground motion from the epicenter 25 to the boundary surface 24 between the earthquake base and the surface ground can be obtained by using a known distance attenuation formula. This distance attenuation formula is an empirical formula showing the relationship between the distance from the epicenter 25, the magnitude, and the magnitude of the ground motion. In the seismic motion transmission 27 from the boundary surface 24 to the ground surface 23 between the earthquake base and the surface ground, the magnification at which the seismic wave is amplified differs depending on the properties of the surface ground. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 3, the strength of the ground motion on the ground surface 23 is obtained by multiplying the ground motion obtained for the boundary surface 24 by using the ground strength data stored in the ground amplification data storage means 3 and multiplying the ground motion by the amplification ( Find the seismic intensity. The ground amplification data shown in FIG. 3 is the ground amplification obtained by, for example, a borehole survey or an estimation from the topographic structure at points of latitude (X) and longitude (Y) at intervals of 500 m.

  Next, with regard to the transmission 28 of seismic motion from the seismic motion (seismic intensity) obtained for the ground surface 23 to the seismic detectors 21 and 22, and the operation of the seismic detectors 21 and 22, as shown in FIG. The sensor operating rate curve data stored in the storage means 8 is used. This sensor operating rate curve is calculated from the seismic intensity observed during the earthquake as described above and the proportion of elevators that have become inactive due to sensor operation (resting rate). Desired.

  In the elevator, the installation locations of the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 differ depending on the model. For example, when it is placed at the lowermost part (pit) of the elevator hoistway as in the seismic sensor 22 shown in FIG. 2 and when it is placed at the uppermost part (machine room, etc.) of the elevator hoistway as in the seismic sensor 21. There is. The sensor operating rate curve data stored in the sensor operating rate curve data storage means 8 is obtained for each of the seismic detectors 21 and 22 having different installation locations. Further, the seismic detector 21 placed at the uppermost part of a hoistway such as a machine room (not shown) is further obtained when the building 20 is a high-rise building or a middle-low-rise building. Thereby, the difference of the transmission characteristic of the earthquake motion from the ground surface by the installation location of the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 can be considered.

  As described above, the seismic intensity at each point in the prediction target area 10 can be obtained by using the epicenter position, the magnitude, the distance attenuation formula, and the amplification degree of the surface ground. Thereby, the distribution of seismic intensity can be obtained. Further, the stoppage probability of the elevator at each point can be obtained using the seismic intensity and the sensor operating rate curve obtained above. Therefore, by multiplying this stop probability by the number or density of elevators at each point, the number of elevators at each point of suspension, that is, the distribution of elevators at rest, is obtained, and the suspension is calculated by summing these. The total number of elevators in the state can be obtained.

  Here, FIG. 5 shows a predicted value of the number of elevators that are not operating when the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 provided in the present embodiment does not correct the seismic intensity distribution, and an actual measurement of the number of elevators that are actually stopped. The ratio with the value is compared for various earthquakes A to G. In FIG. 5, the closer to the broken line ((predicted number / actually measured number) = 1), the closer the predicted value and the actually measured value match. As shown in FIG. 5, there are earthquakes whose predicted values and measured values almost coincide as in the graph of earthquake C, whereas predicted values and measured values are as in the graphs of earthquake D, earthquake E, and earthquake A. There is a very different earthquake. In particular, in the graphs of earthquake C and earthquake D, the degree of coincidence between the predicted value and the actually measured value is greatly different even though both are earthquakes of the same magnitude. This is due to the difference in the frequency component of the earthquake shake as described below.

  FIG. 6 is a velocity response spectrum of ground motion observed at the same point for earthquake C and earthquake D in FIG. At this point, the same seismic intensity is observed in the two earthquakes. The velocity response spectrum of earthquake C is indicated by a dotted line, and the velocity response spectrum of earthquake D is indicated by a solid line. The velocity response spectrum of earthquake C has a large component with a period of 0.4 seconds or less, whereas the velocity response spectrum of earthquake D has a component with a period of 0.4 seconds or more. Since the sensitivity characteristics of the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 including the response characteristics of the building 20 are not the same at all frequencies, the operation rates of the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 are different when the frequency components of the earthquake motion are different.

Therefore, the earthquake velocity waveform V (t) is expressed as the following number (1) using the period T ₀ and amplitude a _{0 of} the dominant frequency component and the non-dominant frequency component f (t). At this time, the acceleration waveform A (t) corresponding to the velocity waveform V (t) is as shown in the equation (2).

As a result, when the seismic waves have the same velocity amplitude, the acceleration amplitude is relatively smaller in the seismic wave having a longer period T ₀ of the dominant frequency component. Therefore, the difference in the frequency component of the seismic motion can be grasped by obtaining the ratio between the velocity amplitude and the acceleration amplitude of the seismic motion.

  FIG. 7 is an acceleration response spectrum at the observation point where the velocity response spectrum shown in FIG. 6 is obtained. The maximum value of the acceleration response spectrum of earthquake D is about 0.6 with respect to the maximum value of the acceleration response spectrum of earthquake C. As shown in FIG. 6, since the maximum value of the speed response spectrum is about the same, when the ratio of acceleration to speed (speed / acceleration) is obtained, earthquake D is smaller. Therefore, if the magnitude of the seismic intensity distribution calculated by the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2 is corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 in accordance with this speed / acceleration ratio, the seismic intensity of the earthquake D becomes relatively smaller, and the predicted elevator The number of pauses is also reduced. As a result, the graph of earthquake D shown in FIG. 5 is corrected downward, and the predicted value can be brought close to the actually measured value.

  Here, the difference in the frequency component of the earthquake is mainly due to the difference in the failure mechanism of the fault that is the epicenter, and is a phenomenon that occurs regardless of the transfer characteristics of the surface ground. Therefore, the speed / acceleration ratio described above may be obtained for one point in the prediction target area 10 in principle. However, in practice, it is preferable to use an average value of values obtained from several observation points in the prediction target area 10 depending on the degree of influence of the surface layer ground.

More specifically, the correction of the seismic intensity distribution by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 using the speed and acceleration ratio of the seismic motion is performed as follows. First, since seismic intensity is known to be highly correlated with the logarithm of velocity, the speed / acceleration ratio can also be obtained as the ratio of the logarithm of velocity and the logarithm of acceleration. The logarithm of velocity may be obtained as the logarithm of the maximum value of the velocity response spectrum (maximum velocity response) as described above, but in this embodiment, the measured seismic intensity obtained from the seismic waveform is used as the logarithm of velocity in order to improve the accuracy. Used as On the other hand, the logarithm of acceleration is obtained as the logarithm of the maximum value (maximum acceleration response) of the acceleration response spectrum. This maximum acceleration response is a maximum value in a band having a period of 0.1 seconds or more in which the sensitivity of the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 has sensitivity in the acceleration response spectrum. Thus, it is calculated by the number (3) a correction factor R _I to correct the seismic intensity.

Here, PAR is the maximum acceleration response obtained from the seismic waveform, I is the measured seismic intensity obtained from the seismic waveform, and k is a proportional coefficient obtained as follows. Intensity distribution correcting means 6, by the seismic intensity seismic intensity prediction means 2 is calculated by multiplying the correction factor R _I, to correct the seismic intensity distribution. The proportional coefficient k described above is calculated from the relationship among the number of elevators that have stopped in a past earthquake, the measured seismic intensity, and the maximum acceleration response.

  First, when the number of elevator stops is calculated by multiplying the seismic intensity distribution calculated by the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2, the magnification at which the number of stopped elevators is closest to the actual value is calculated as a seismic intensity correction coefficient for each earthquake. On the other hand, the seismic intensity acceleration ratio (the part excluding the proportional coefficient k in the number (3)) is calculated from the measured seismic intensity and the maximum acceleration response obtained for each earthquake. Then, as shown in FIG. 8, when the seismic intensity acceleration ratio is plotted on the horizontal axis and the seismic intensity correction coefficient is plotted on the vertical axis, a straight line almost passing through the origin is obtained. Thus, the proportional coefficient k is obtained as the slope of the straight line shown in FIG.

  In this way, the seismic intensity distribution correction means 6 corrects the seismic intensity distribution, and the correction prediction means of the elevator resting number predicting means 7 predicts the number of resting elevators in the resting state, as shown in FIG. As a whole, a graph of the predicted number / measured number in each earthquake with the predicted value and the measured value well matched is obtained. As shown in FIG. 9, when the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 shown in FIG. 5 does not correct the seismic intensity distribution, the predicted values of the earthquake D, the earthquake E, and the earthquake A that are greatly different from the actual measurement values are shown. Also, the predicted value and the measured value are in good agreement.

  Next, the operation of this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 10, when an earthquake first occurs, information on the location and magnitude of the earthquake is input from the earthquake information input means 1 using information such as preliminary information from the Japan Meteorological Agency or emergency earthquake preliminary information, for example ( S1). When the epicenter location and magnitude are input, the seismic intensity distribution prediction means 2 calculates the seismic intensity distribution in the prediction target area 10 from the input earthquake information and the ground amplification data stored in the earthquake amplification data storage means 3. Predict (S2).

  On the other hand, the seismometer 4 installed in the prediction target area 10 starts the transmission of the earthquake waveform triggered by the input of earthquake information or the detection of shaking by the seismometer 4 itself, and the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 transmits The received earthquake waveform data is received and obtained (S3). Then, the speed / acceleration ratio calculating means 5 calculates the measured seismic intensity and the maximum acceleration response from the seismic waveform data sent from the seismometer 4 (S4), and calculates the speed / acceleration ratio (S5).

  When the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2 predicts the seismic intensity distribution in the prediction target area 10 in S2, and the speed / acceleration ratio calculating means 5 calculates the speed / acceleration ratio in S5, the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 Is multiplied by the seismic intensity distribution predicted by the seismic intensity distribution predicting means 2 to correct the seismic intensity distribution (S6). The correction prediction means of the elevator stoppage number prediction means 7 uses the seismic intensity distribution corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correction means 6 and the sensor operating rate curve data stored in the sensor operating rate curve data storage means 8 to Calculate the number of suspensions and distribution of Then, the elevator stoppage number prediction means 7 displays the elevator stoppage number and distribution chart on the display means 9 in the form as shown in FIG. 11, for example (S7).

  As shown in FIG. 11, in the distribution diagram displayed by the display means 9, black spots represent elevators that are in a resting state, and white spots represent elevators that are not in a resting state. This distribution map can be displayed as follows, for example.

  The elevator stoppage number prediction means 7 determines the elevator stoppage probability for each point in the prediction target area 10. A random number from 0 to 1 is generated for each elevator. When this random number is a value larger than the pause probability at the position where the elevator is installed, it is displayed as a white spot, and when this random number is smaller than the pause probability at the position where the elevator is installed, it is displayed as a black spot. . By displaying in this way, it is possible to display the distribution of elevators that have been in a stopped state in a form corresponding to the distribution of elevator stop probability.

  According to the present embodiment configured as described above, the speed / acceleration ratio of the earthquake motion is calculated by the speed / acceleration ratio calculating means 5 in S5 from the seismic waveform measured by the seismometer 4 installed in the prediction target area 10 in S2. By calculating and correcting the seismic intensity distribution of the earthquake by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 using the speed / acceleration ratio in S6, the corrected predicting means of the elevator stop number predicting means 7 is corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 in S7. Therefore, the number of elevators that are in a dormant state regardless of the area where the earthquake occurred can be obtained. And the distribution can be predicted with high accuracy. That is, it is possible to obtain a highly accurate prediction result in consideration of the difference in the frequency component of the earthquake shake even in an area where the occurrence of the earthquake is small, without using the database of the frequency component of the earthquake shake. Thereby, it is possible to obtain reliable data regarding the number and distribution of elevators that are in a dormant state.

  The present embodiment also includes seismic detectors 21 and 22 for detecting the elevator sway due to the earthquake, and the velocity / acceleration ratio calculating means 5 in S5 calculates the seismic intensity obtained from the seismic waveform measured by the seismometer 4. The ratio of the maximum acceleration response related to the frequency component of the earthquake shake detected by the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 is calculated, and the maximum acceleration related to the frequency component of the shake detected by the earthquake detectors 21 and 22 of the elevator is calculated in S6. When the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 corrects the seismic intensity distribution by the response ratio, it is possible to obtain a prediction result in consideration of the difference in the frequency component of the earthquake shake affecting the seismic detectors 21 and 22 of the elevator. As a result, it is possible to improve the number of suspended elevators and the accuracy of distribution in the suspended state.

  The present embodiment also includes a sensor operating rate curve data storage means 8 for storing sensor operating rate curve data calculated from the seismic intensity observed during an earthquake and the percentage of elevators that have become dormant due to sensor operation. The elevator stop number prediction means 7 in S7 corresponds to the seismic intensity of the earthquake in each region in the prediction target area 10 where the number of elevator stops is predicted from the seismic intensity distribution corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correction means 6. By predicting the number of elevator stops using the sensor operating rate curve data, it becomes the dormant state of each area in the prediction target area 10 in consideration of the elevator stop probability according to the seismic intensity of the earthquake. The number of elevator stops can be predicted.

  In the present embodiment, the elevator rest number predicting means 7 in S7 uses the seismic intensity distribution corrected by the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 to estimate the number of earthquakes in each region in the prediction target area 10 where the number of elevator rests is predicted. By displaying the distribution map of the elevators that have become dormant using the sensor operating rate curve data corresponding to the seismic intensity, the distribution of the elevators that have become dormant in each area within the prediction target area 10 can be shook. Can be displayed on the display means 9 in consideration of the difference in frequency components.

  Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various embodiments are possible within the scope of the technical idea of the present invention. In the present embodiment described above, the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 has been described for the case where the logarithm of the measured seismic intensity and the maximum acceleration response is described. However, the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 is not limited to this case. And the logarithm of the maximum acceleration response may be calculated and this ratio may be output as the speed / acceleration ratio.

  Furthermore, the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 5 uses the distance attenuation formula and the amplification of the surface ground for the installation location of the seismometer 4 from the epicenter position and magnitude instead of the measured seismic intensity calculated from the seismic waveform measured by the seismometer 4. The speed / acceleration ratio may be output by using the seismic intensity determined by the degree. When a plurality of seismometers 4 are installed in the prediction target area 10, the velocity / acceleration ratio is calculated for each seismometer 4, and the seismic intensity distribution correcting means 6 is calculated based on the average velocity / acceleration ratio. Corrects the seismic intensity distribution. Thereby, the influence of surface layer ground can be reduced and it can estimate with high precision.

1 Earthquake information input means 2 Seismic intensity distribution prediction means (strength distribution prediction means)
3 Ground amplification degree data storage means 4 Seismometer (earthquake waveform measurement means)
5 Speed / acceleration ratio calculation means 6 Seismic intensity distribution correction means (correction means)
7 Number of elevator stoppage prediction means 8 Sensor operating rate curve data storage means (stop probability storage means)
9 Display means 10 Predicted area 20 Building 21, 22 Seismic detector 23 Ground surface 24 Interface 25 Seismic source 26, 27, 28 Seismic wave

Claims (4)

Based on the location and magnitude of the earthquake, the strength distribution predicting means for predicting the intensity distribution of the earthquake shake, and the number of elevators that are in a rest state from the intensity distribution predicted by the strength distribution predicting means In the elevator operation stoppage prediction system equipped with an elevator stoppage number prediction means for predicting,
Installed in an area where the number of elevator suspensions is predicted by the elevator suspension number prediction means, and an earthquake waveform measurement means for measuring the waveform of earthquake motion;
A speed / acceleration ratio calculating means for calculating a speed / acceleration ratio indicating a ratio of the speed and acceleration of the ground motion from the waveform of the ground motion measured by the seismic waveform measuring means;
Correction means for correcting the strength distribution predicted by the strength distribution prediction means using the speed / acceleration ratio calculated by the speed / acceleration ratio calculation means;
The elevator stoppage number predicting means includes correction prediction means for predicting the number of stoppages of the elevator using the intensity distribution corrected by the correction means. In the elevator emergency stoppage prediction system according to claim 1,
Equipped with an earthquake detector to detect the shaking of the elevator due to an earthquake,
The intensity distribution predicting means includes seismic intensity distribution predicting means for predicting the seismic intensity distribution of the earthquake,
The speed / acceleration ratio calculating means calculates a ratio between a measured seismic intensity obtained from the seismic waveform measured by the seismic waveform measuring means and a maximum acceleration response related to a frequency component of an earthquake shake sensed by the seismic detector. An elevator stoppage prediction system for earthquakes. In the elevator emergency stoppage prediction system according to claim 1,
A pause probability storage means for storing a pause probability indicating a probability that the elevator is in a pause state according to the strength of an earthquake shake;
The elevator resting number predicting means uses the resting probability corresponding to the intensity of earthquake shaking in each region in the region where the number of resting elevators is predicted from the intensity distribution corrected by the correcting means. An elevator stoppage prediction system for earthquakes, which predicts the number of stoppages of the elevator. In the elevator emergency stoppage prediction system according to claim 3,
The elevator stoppage number predicting means calculates the stoppage probability corresponding to the intensity of earthquake shaking in each region in the area where the number of elevator stoppages is predicted from the intensity distribution corrected by the correction means. A system for predicting operation stoppage during an earthquake of an elevator, wherein a distribution map of the elevator that has been in a stop state is displayed.