JP2009166918A - Earthquake damage forecasting device for elevator - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an earthquake damage forecasting device for an elevator capable of quickly arranging a retrieval system relative to the damage of the elevator by an earthquake by forecasting a damage ratio of the elevator at the occurrence of the earthquake at an early stage and shortening a time for retrieval. <P>SOLUTION: The earthquake damage forecasting device for the elevator is provided with: a memory 35 having an elevator earthquake damage database 351 obtained from information for specifying the elevator and a maintenance corresponding history in the past earthquake; a report passing status obtaining part 31 for obtaining the report passing status 311 regarding the respective elevators; and an earthquake damage forecasting part 32 for forecasting the earthquake damage based on the elevator earthquake damage database and the report passing status. In the earthquake damage forecasting part 32, forecasting operation is performed using the report passing status from automatic reporting device 12-1-12-n obtained by the report passing status obtaining part and the elevator earthquake damage database stored in the memory 35, a stopping ratio of the previously selected sample elevator is determined, and a damage ratio of the whole of an objection area to be forecasted and each optional system is forecasted. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus for predicting the operation status of an elevator operation control system during an earthquake from past knowledge and notification from an automatic notification apparatus.

  Generally, in an elevator device, an earthquake-controlled operation device is installed for the purpose of preventing passengers from being trapped in the elevator car interior due to an elevator failure at the time of an earthquake. The seismic control operation device includes a seismic detector for detecting an earthquake, and when the seismic sensor operates, the elevator enters the seismic control operation state and stops at the nearest floor.

  At this time, if the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred is below a certain value, the elevator will automatically restart, but if it exceeds the certain value, the elevator may be damaged, so maintenance workers The system cannot be restarted without waiting for inspection. Therefore, in an elevator maintenance company, it is necessary to quickly collect the operation status of seismic detectors installed in an elevator under its own management, and to send a maintenance worker to the elevator that is in the control operation state during an earthquake.

  Conventional elevator earthquake damage prediction equipment is installed in each region for the purpose of quickly identifying the elevators in the affected areas where maintenance workers must be dispatched and efficiently dispatching maintenance workers. Based on the values (earthquake intensity) of the seismometers, etc., the affected areas are classified into 3 categories, and it is difficult to determine whether the maintenance workers need to be dispatched. There has been proposed a method for obtaining an answer to an operation state from a monitoring center in preference to an elevator (see Patent Document 1, for example).

  Another purpose of the conventional device is to prevent the monitoring center's communication line from being occupied for a long time by a control operation report during an earthquake in the event of a major earthquake, and preventing the reception of emergency reports from outside the disaster area. As a part of the elevators in each area, high-gull reporting means and low-gull reporting means are installed, and only the elevators in the area that received only the notification from the low-gull reporting means are operated from the monitoring center. A method for obtaining an answer has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

JP 2006-315807 A JP 2006-315793 A

  In the case of the methods described in Patent Documents 1 and 2 described above, the conventional elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus, in the damaged area of the middle earthquake or the area that received only the low-gal report, sends all the elevators in the area from the monitoring center. For example, in an area where the stoppage rate of the elevator is 30%, an answer request is also made to the elevator during normal operation corresponding to the remaining 70%, and the total communication time is reduced. When considered, there was a problem that it was very wasteful.

  In addition, in any of the methods disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2, the operating state cannot be answered unless an answer is requested from the monitoring center side. If the low-gull is not detected in the elevator where the reporting means is installed, no response will be requested from the monitoring center forever, so there is no report from elevator users etc. for elevators that have entered the state of operation during earthquake control in the area concerned As long as maintenance workers are not dispatched, there is a problem that the elevator is left standing for a long time.

  An object of the present invention is to obtain an earthquake damage prediction apparatus for an elevator that can quickly establish a restoration system against an elevator damage caused by the earthquake and can shorten the time to restoration.

  The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to the present invention includes an elevator earthquake damage database obtained from information for identifying each elevator of a plurality of elevators and a maintenance response history in a past earthquake, and a notification process regarding the plurality of elevators. A report progress status acquisition unit that acquires the situation, and an earthquake damage prediction unit that predicts earthquake damage based on the elevator earthquake damage database and the report progress status.

  According to the present invention, regardless of the magnitude of an earthquake, it is possible to quickly establish a recovery system and shorten the time until recovery.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram schematically showing the entire earthquake damage prediction apparatus for an elevator according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
In FIG. 1, a plurality (n) of elevators 1-1 to 1-n (hereinafter collectively referred to as “elevator 1 (n)”) are installed in a predetermined area, and are managed by an elevator maintenance company. It shall be below.

  The elevator 1 (n) includes an earthquake detector 11-1 to 11-n (hereinafter collectively referred to as “earthquake detector 11 (n)”) for detecting earthquake motion, and an elevator 1 (n). Automatic notification devices 12-1 to 12-n (hereinafter collectively referred to as “automatic notification devices 12 (n)”) that automatically report abnormalities (such as transition to an earthquake-controlled operation state) Are installed separately.

The automatic notification device 12 (n) has a notification delay function, and starts to report that it has entered a controlled operation state during an earthquake after a preset notification delay time has elapsed.
The general public line 2 indicates all communication lines provided by a line provider, such as a fixed telephone line, a mobile phone line (including PHS), and an Internet communication line.

The information center 100 is a facility in which an elevator maintenance company receives a report from an elevator under its own management, and sends a dispatch instruction to its service base or maintenance worker. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus 3 and a report receiving unit 30. Moreover, the earthquake damage prediction apparatus 3 of an elevator includes a report progress status acquisition unit 31, an earthquake damage prediction unit 32, an input unit 33 and an output unit 34 serving as a man-machine interface, and a storage unit 35 that stores various data. I have.
The report receiving unit 30 receives a report from the automatic notification device 12 (n) of each elevator 1 (n) and creates a report progress situation 311 in which the content of the report from the automatic notification device 12 (n) is recorded. . The report progress status acquisition unit 31 acquires the report progress status 311 created by the report receiving unit 30. When the report receiving unit 30 cannot be used, the report progress status 311 may be directly input to the report progress status acquisition unit 31 using the input unit 33 or the like.

The input unit 33 is configured by an entire interface (keyboard, microphone, etc.) for an operator of the information center 100 to input information.
The output unit 34 is configured by general interfaces (display, printer, etc.) for outputting various information, and outputs a total damage situation 341, a system-specific damage situation 342, and a stop prediction site list 343.

  Earthquake damage refers to the status of transition to the seismic control operation state associated with the operation of the seismic detector installed in the elevator. In order to perform the damage prediction calculation, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 calculates a total damage state calculation unit 321 that calculates the total damage state of the prediction target area immediately after the occurrence of the earthquake, a system-specific damage state calculation unit 322, and a stop prediction site. And a stop prediction site list update unit 323 that updates the list 343.

The damage status calculation unit 322 for each system calculates the damage status for each administrative unit (such as distinction or town name) or for any system (such as each management system) determined by the elevator maintenance company.
Details of each function included in the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 will be described later.

  The storage unit 35 stores an elevator earthquake damage database 351 that stores past earthquake maintenance support history and the like held by the elevator maintenance company, and a sample elevator list 352 that is used by the earthquake damage prediction unit 32.

  The elevator earthquake damage database 351 in the storage unit 35 collects information related to the presence / absence of operation of the earthquake detector from the maintenance response history at the time of the occurrence of an earthquake held by the elevator maintenance company, and is under the control of the elevator maintenance company. This is a summary of past damage occurrences for all elevators.

  For example, the elevator earthquake damage database 351 includes, as minimum requirements, information for identifying an elevator (elevator management number, elevator number, etc.) and information for identifying an earthquake (date and name of an earthquake that occurred in the past). In addition, information on the presence / absence of operation of the earthquake detector 11 (n) in an earthquake and the calculated value of the predicted stop probability when an earthquake occurs for each elevator, which is obtained from the number of stops in the past earthquake, etc. It may be.

The elevator earthquake damage database 351 may include parameters (capacity, load capacity, etc.) that have a small effect on earthquake damage, and damage caused by past earthquakes is detected by the earthquake detector 11 (n). Not only the presence / absence of operation but also the presence / absence of occurrence of property damage or confinement may be included.
In addition, the elevator earthquake damage database 351 may describe whether the elevator maintenance company has a high correlation with the outage probability obtained by analyzing the maintenance response history at the time of the occurrence of a past earthquake. desirable. Conditions that have a high correlation with the probability of stoppage are, for example, the highest number of floors, seismic standards, and the completion year of the building.

  On the other hand, the sample elevator list 352 in the storage unit 35 shows a list of sample elevators, and is used by the total damage status calculation unit 321 in the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 to calculate the total damage status.

  The sample elevators described in the sample elevator list 352 are randomly selected from the elevators under the control of the elevator maintenance company, or what percentage of the elevators are under the control of the elevator maintenance company for each administrative unit. It is selected so as to be equal to the administrative ratio for each administrative unit indicating whether it is in the management unit or the administrative ratio for each administrative system determined by the elevator maintenance company.

In addition, the sample elevator is selected so as to be equal to the proportion of elevators under maintenance management, or is selected so that the number of samples per unit area is equal.
In addition, the sample elevator has a high proportion of indicators that are highly correlated with the probability of stoppage (for example, building seismic standards, top floors, ground, etc.). And so on).

In the sample elevator, when the relationship between the stop rate in the area and the stop rate of the entire sample elevator is approximated in a linear format, the sum of squares of errors (residuals) between each data and the approximate expression is a predetermined value. It is selected so that it is within the range, or selected mainly on the site where the past stoppage rate is high.
Eventually, the sample elevator is selected to satisfy one or more of the above selection conditions.

Next, the operation of the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 related to the sample elevator list 352 in the information center 100 shown in FIG. 1 will be specifically described.
When the selection of the sample elevator is completed based on the above selection conditions, the predicted stoppage rate Py and the stoppage rate Ps of the sample elevator are expressed as shown in the following equation (1) for each earthquake that has occurred up to the time of selection of the sample elevator. Is obtained using the slope α and the intercept δ of the linear approximation formula.

  Py = α × Ps + δ (1)

The number of sample elevators selected is set to the maximum number that all sample elevators can complete reporting within the time when they want to obtain the total damage status after the earthquake.
The sample elevator list 352 includes a sample elevator management number as a minimum. The notification delay time Ts of the automatic notification device installed in the sample elevator is set in advance to a small value (immediately after the earthquake detection or one minute after the earthquake detection).

The notification delay time T of the elevators other than the sample elevator is desirably a time for starting the notification after the time until the notification is completed when all the sample elevators notify the notification receiving unit 30.
Therefore, the notification delay time T of the elevators other than the sample elevator is calculated as the following formula (2) using the average communication time Ta [s], the number of sample elevators Ns, and the number of communication reception unit lines NL.

  T = (Ta × Ns) / NL + Ts (2)

  However, if there is a threshold that can determine the system without waiting for the completion of communication for all the sample elevators, for example, if there is a report from half of the sample elevators, all maintenance workers will be dispatched. The sample elevator number Ns may be replaced with “required sample elevator number”.

In addition, if the number of elevators managed by the maintenance company is significantly larger than the number of reception lines of the notification receiver 30, a delay may be further provided in the elevators other than the sample elevator.
Specifically, an elevator other than the sample elevator is divided into 10 equal parts, and a delay difference of 10 minutes is provided after the report delay time T has elapsed, or the number of communications that the report receiver 30 can receive per minute is set. In order not to exceed, it may be repeated that an elevator other than the sample elevator is extracted and added to the notification delay time T one minute at a time.
The notification delay times of all elevators calculated in this way may be stored in the storage unit 35 as a notification time delay list 353.

Hereinafter, the operation of each component and the flow of processing will be described along with the passage of time since the occurrence of the earthquake, assuming that an earthquake has occurred.
As a precondition, it is assumed that the elevator maintenance company selects k elevators 1-1 to 1-k (where k <n) as the sample elevator 1 (k). The report progress status 311 is created by the report receiving unit 30 and transmitted to the report progress status acquiring unit 31.

  Of the n seismic detectors 11 (n), t seismic detectors 11-1 to 11-t (where t <k) (hereinafter referred to as “earthquake sensor 11 (t)”) , (N−s + 1) earthquake detectors 11-s to 11-n (where s> k) (hereinafter referred to as “earthquake detector 11 (ns−s + 1)”), and t elevators 1-1 to 1-t (hereinafter referred to as “elevator 1 (t)”) and (n−s + 1) elevators 1-s to 1-n (hereinafter referred to as “elevator 1 (ns−s + 1)”). Is assumed to be in a controlled operation state during an earthquake.

  Also, the alert delay time of k automatic notification devices 12-1 to 12-k (hereinafter referred to as "automatic notification device 12 (k)") installed in the sample elevator 1 (k) is "1 minute". Automatic notification devices 12- (k + 1) to 12-n (hereinafter referred to as “automatic notification devices 12 (nk)”) that are set and installed in the other (nk) elevators 1 (nk). ) Is set to “10 minutes”.

  First, one minute after the occurrence of the earthquake, the automatic notification device 12 (t) installed in t elevators 1 (t) uses the general public line 2 to indicate that the earthquake detector 11 (t) has been operated. The information reception unit 30 in the information center 100 is notified. As a result, the notification receiving unit 30 adds the information on the elevator 1 (t) to the notification progress status 311 as soon as the notification from the t automatic notification devices 12 (t) is received.

Note that the report progress status 311 includes information such as the control number and report time of each elevator.
At this time, in the (kt) elevators 1- (t + 1) to 1-k (hereinafter referred to as “elevator 1 (kt)”), the earthquake detector 11 (kt) is not operating. Therefore, the report receiving unit 30 is not notified.

Here, the number of notifications received per unit time of the notification receiver 30 will be described with reference to the explanatory diagram of FIG.
Figures 2 (a) to 2 (c) show the number of reports received per unit time according to the magnitude of earthquake damage. The horizontal axis represents time, and the solid line represents reports from sample elevator 1 (k). The time characteristics of the number of receptions and the dotted line are the time characteristics of the number of notifications received from the elevator 1 (n−k) other than the sample elevator.

  Fig. 2 (a) shows a case where the earthquake damage in the prediction target area is small, Fig. 2 (b) shows a case where the earthquake damage in the prediction target area is large, and Fig. 2 (c) shows a case where the earthquake damage in the prediction target area is very large. is there.

  In FIG. 2, when (a) damage is small or (b) damage is large, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 confirms that the report from the sample elevator 1 (k) has been stopped for a certain period of time. Then, report progress status 311 is read from report receiving unit 30 to report progress status acquisition unit 31 and total damage status calculation unit 321 is called.

  Also, as shown in FIG. 2 (c), the damage is extraordinary, and the report from the elevator 1 (nk) other than the sample (see the dotted line) while receiving the report from the sample elevator 1 (k) (see the solid line) Is received, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 notifies the report progress status 311 from the report reception unit 30 to the report progress status acquisition unit 31 when the elapsed time from the occurrence of the earthquake reaches a predetermined time set in advance. Is read and the total damage status calculation unit 321 is called.

Next, the operation of the total damage situation calculation unit 321 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.
In FIG. 3, the total damage status calculation unit 321 first determines the number Nsp of samples elevator 1 (k) to be stopped from the report progress status 311 in the report progress status acquisition unit 31 and the sample elevator list 352 in the storage unit 35. Is obtained (step S1).

  Subsequently, the number Nsp of stopped sample elevators is compared with a preset predetermined value Nsr (for example, 0.5% of the total number Ns of sample elevators (“k” in the first embodiment)), and the sample elevators are compared. It is determined whether or not the number of stops Nsp is equal to or greater than a predetermined value Nsr (step S2).

  If it is determined in step S2 that Nsp <Nsr (that is, NO), the earthquake damage in the predicted target area is very slight and can be handled by a normal maintenance system. As damage status 341, it is output that Nsp <Nsr (for example, “the predicted number of damaged units is 0.5% or less of the total number of managed units”) (step S8), and the entire operation of the earthquake damage prediction apparatus is terminated (step S8). S9).

  On the other hand, if it is determined in step S2 that Nsp ≧ Nsr (that is, YES), the number of sample elevator stops Nsp is divided by the number of sample elevators Ns to stop the sample elevator as shown in the following equation (3). The rate Ps is obtained (step S3).

  Ps = Nsp / Ns × 100 [%] (3)

Subsequently, the stop rate Py of the entire prediction target area is calculated from the stop rate Ps of the sample elevator using the above-described equation (1) (step S4).
Furthermore, by multiplying the predicted stoppage rate Py of the entire prediction target area calculated from the stoppage rate Ps of the sample elevator by the total number of managed vehicles Nz in the prediction target area of the elevator maintenance company, as in the following formula (4), The predicted stop number Ny is calculated (step S5).

  Ny = Nz × Py [%] / 100 (4)

  Finally, the calculated predicted stop rate Py and predicted stop number Ny of the entire prediction target area are output as the total damage status 341 in the output unit 34 (step S6), and the processing of the total damage status calculation unit 321 is terminated. (Step S7).

  Hereinafter, 10 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake, the automatic alarm device 12 (ns + 1) installed in the (n−s + 1) elevators 1 (ns + 1) operates the earthquake detector 11 (ns−s + 1). This is notified to the notification receiving unit 30 in the information center 100 using the general public line 2. As a result, the notification receiving unit 30 adds the information on the elevator 1 (n−s + 1) to the notification progress situation 311 as soon as the notification from the automatic notification device 12 (ns−s + 1) is received.

  At this time, (s-1-k) elevators 1- (k + 1) to 1- (s-1) (hereinafter referred to as "elevator 1 (s-1-k)") are connected to the earthquake detector 11 (s Since -1-k) is not activated, the notification receiver 30 is not notified.

Subsequently, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 responds to the fact that the elapsed time from the start of notification reaches a predetermined value set in advance or in response to a user instruction from the input unit 33, the report reception unit 30. The latest report progress status 311 is read by the report progress status acquisition unit 31.
In addition, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 calculates damages by system specified by the user from the input unit 33 (by administrative unit such as distinction or town name, or by management system determined by an elevator maintenance company). Next, the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322 is called.

Next, the operation of the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.
In FIG. 4, the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322 first stores in the storage unit 35 which of the system categories designated by the user all elevators described in the report progress status 311 correspond to. Classification is performed using the elevator earthquake damage database 351 (step S11), and the number of stoppages Ni for each system is calculated from the calculation based on the classification (step S12).

  Subsequently, the occupancy rate of each administrative unit or each management system x with respect to the total number of elevators registered in the report progress status 311 is used as the reception ratio Px of each system, and the total number Nx of reports of the administrative unit or management system x and the i th Is calculated as in the following equation (5) using the total number of reports Ni of the administrative unit or the management system (step S13).

  Px = Nx / ΣNi × 100 [%] (5)

As is clear from the equation (5), the reception ratio Px is always 100% when the sum is taken for all administrative units or management systems x included in the prediction target district.
In addition, when the line carrier restricts outgoing / incoming calls, even if the outgoing / incoming call restriction timing differs for each line carrier, the restricted area generally extends to the entire affected area. For example, it is rare that only certain administrative units in the region are restricted.

  Therefore, the effect of outgoing / incoming call restrictions by the network operator appears only in the number of communication abnormalities and the total number of completed communications per unit time, and the impact on the reception ratio Px by administrative unit or management system is small. It is possible to infer the damage status of each administrative unit or each management system x from the progress status 311.

When the reception ratio Px is calculated for all the systems according to the above formula (5), the calculated reception ratio Px for each system is multiplied by the predicted stoppage number Ny calculated by the total damage status calculation unit 321. Thus, as shown in the following formula (6), the predicted stop number Nxy for each system is calculated (step S14).
Nxy = Ny × Px [%] / 100 [unit] (6)

  Finally, the reception ratio Px and the predicted stop number Nxy for each system calculated by the above formulas (5) and (6) are output as the system-specific damage status 342 in the output unit 34 (step S15). The process of the situation calculation part 322 is complete | finished (step S16).

In the above description, after the processing of the total damage situation calculation unit 321 is completed, the system-specific damage situation calculation unit 322 is called after a while. 322 may be called.
In addition, if the earthquake is large and the report receiving unit 30 continuously receives the report even after the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322 has finished processing, The situation calculation unit 322 may be called repeatedly, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the system-specific damage situation 342 in the output unit 34.

Next, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 reads the report progress status 311 and the elevator earthquake damage database 351 and calls the stop prediction site list update unit 323.
At this time, it is desirable that the location of the earthquake, the depth of the epicenter, the magnitude, the seismic intensity at each location, etc. are obtained as the situation of the earthquake.

The operation of the stop prediction site list update unit 323 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.
In FIG. 5, the stop prediction site list update unit 323 first reads the status of the earthquake within the obtained range, such as the location of the epicenter, the depth of the epicenter, the magnitude, and the seismic intensity of each place (step S20).
If the earthquake situation is not digitized, the user may input the earthquake situation using the input unit 33.

  Subsequently, all the elevators under the control of the elevator maintenance company for each of the conditions described in the elevator earthquake damage database 351 that are highly correlated with the outage probability obtained by analyzing the maintenance response history at the time of the past earthquake occurrence. Of the number Nz, the number Ng of sites corresponding to the conditions, the number Nk described in the report progress status 311 and the number Nk described in the report progress status 311, the number of sites Na corresponding to the condition is obtained (step S21). ).

Next, the management site ratio Ng / Nz corresponding to the conditions under the control of the elevator maintenance company is compared with the damage site ratio Na / Nk corresponding to the conditions described in the report progress status 311 to determine the damage site ratio. It is determined whether Na / Nk is larger than the management site ratio Ng / Nz (step S22).
If it is determined in step S22 that Na / Nk ≦ Ng / Nz (that is, NO), it is subsequently determined whether or not Na / Nk = Ng / Nz (step S23).

  On the other hand, if it is determined in step S22 that Na / Nk> Ng / Nz (that is, YES), it is considered that the probability of stopping other elevators corresponding to the condition under analysis is higher than the average earthquake. Therefore, according to the ratio γ (= (Na / Nk) / (Ng / Nz)) of the damage site ratio Na / Nk of the condition to the management site ratio Ng / Nz of the condition, the management site corresponding to the condition is stopped. The probability P is increased and recalculated (step S24).

  Specifically, according to the comparison result between the on-site ratio ratio γ and the threshold value q, the stop probability Po before raising, the upper limit Pτu, the on-site ratio ratio γ and the threshold value q are used, and when γ <q As in the following equation (7), when γ ≧ q, the on-site stop probability P corresponding to the condition is raised as in the equation (7 ′).

P = Po + Pτu × γ / q (γ <q) (7)
P = Po + Pτu (γ ≧ q) (7 ′)

The calculation of the stop probability P according to the equations (7) and (7 ′) is performed for all the sites corresponding to the condition.
If it is determined in step S23 that Na / Nk <Ng / Nz (that is, NO), it is considered that the probability of stopping other elevators corresponding to the condition under analysis is lower than that of an average earthquake. Therefore, in accordance with the ratio ratio γ, the management site stop probability P corresponding to the condition is reduced and recalculated (step S25).

  Specifically, according to the comparison result between the on-site ratio ratio γ and the threshold value q, the stop probability Po before reduction, the lower limit Pτd, the on-site ratio ratio γ, and the threshold value q are used. As in the following equation (8), when γ ≦ q, the on-site stop probability P corresponding to the condition is lowered as in the following (8 ′).

P = Po−Pτd × (1-γ) / (1-q) (γ> q) (8)
P = Po−Pτd (γ ≦ q) (8 ′)

On the other hand, if it is determined in step S23 that Na / Nk = Ng / Nz (that is, YES), the recalculation process (steps S24 and S25) of the stop probability P is not executed.
Because, if the condition management site ratio Ng / Nz and the condition damage site ratio Na / Nk are equal, the probability of stopping other elevators corresponding to the condition under analysis is considered to be the same level as the average earthquake. This is because it is not necessary to recalculate the stop probability P.

  As described above, whether or not there is a condition highly correlated with other stop probabilities after executing the process of estimating the stop probability P in the earthquake (steps S21 to S25) for a condition highly correlated with a certain stop probability. (Step S26), and if it is determined that there are other conditions (ie, YES), the process returns to step S21, and the above processing (steps S21 to S25) is repeatedly executed for the other conditions.

  On the other hand, if it is determined in step S26 that there is no other condition (that is, NO), the process has been completed for all conditions that have a high correlation with the stop probability obtained in advance, so that it is described in the report progress situation 311. The probability of stopping at all sites is changed to 100% (step S27).

Finally, information related to an elevator (for example, an unrecovered elevator with a stop probability of 70% or more) specified by the user using the input unit 33 is output as a stop prediction site list 343 in the output unit 34 (step S28). ) The process of the stop prediction site list update unit 323 is terminated (step S29).
Note that the stop prediction site list 343 includes, as a minimum, an elevator management number, a car number, and a predicted stop probability. Moreover, information (such as a property location and an elevator model name) necessary for a work instruction to a maintenance worker may be included.

  In addition, if the earthquake is large and the notification receiving unit 30 continuously receives the notification even after the processing of the stop prediction site list update unit 323 is completed, the stop prediction site list is updated after a while. The unit 323 may be repeatedly called, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the stop probability of the stop prediction site list 343.

  As described above, the elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention is the elevator earthquake damage database 351 obtained from the information for specifying each elevator of the plurality of elevators and the maintenance response history in the past earthquake. A storage unit 35, a report progress acquisition unit 31 that acquires report progress statuses regarding a plurality of elevators, an earthquake damage prediction unit 32 that predicts earthquake damage based on the elevator earthquake damage database 351 and the report progress status 311, A storage unit 35 and a report reception unit 30 connected to the report progress status acquisition unit 31 are provided.

  In the above configuration, when an earthquake occurs, the report receiving unit uses the total damage status calculation unit 321 in the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 after completing the report from the sample elevator and receiving a report from an elevator other than the sample elevator. The number of sample elevator stops Ns (t in the first embodiment) extracted from the report progress status 311 created in 30 and read by the report progress status acquisition unit 31, and formulas (3) and (4) The stop rate Py of the entire prediction target district and the number of stops Ny of the entire prediction target district are acquired.

At the same time, using the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322, obtain the report reception ratio Px for each category determined by the elevator maintenance company, multiply the report reception ratio Px by the number of stops Ny, and classify from equation (6) Predict at least one of another damage rate and the number of damage.
Thereby, the state where the notification from the automatic notification device is continuously transmitted to the notification receiving unit 30 regardless of the magnitude of the earthquake while suppressing the communication amount with the automatic notification device installed in the elevator to the minimum necessary. Even so, it is possible to predict the damage caused by the earthquake, and it is possible to quickly establish a recovery system according to the scale of the earthquake damage.

After that, in the state where the report from the elevator is continuously transmitted in the report receiving unit 30, the stop prediction site list update unit 323 in the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 is used to describe the elevator earthquake damage database 351. The elevator stop probability is corrected based on the analysis result of the report progress state 311 and the stop prediction site list 343 specialized for the earthquake is acquired.
This makes it possible to manage the recovery progress rate and create a patrol plan for maintenance workers at an early stage using the stop prediction site list 343, and further shorten the time from the occurrence of the earthquake to the completion of the recovery. .

  That is, in the method of Patent Document 1 described above, in the earthquake-stricken area, maintenance workers will not start unless collection of operating conditions is completed in the middle-earthquake-affected area, or there is no report from an elevator user or the like. Will not be dispatched, and the elevator will be left stationary for a long time, and the operation status of the seismic detector will be insufficiently collected for the elevator in the area where damage is small, resulting in the elevator Although it took a long time to recover, the recovery time can be shortened as described above.

  Moreover, in the method of the above-mentioned patent document 2, since the maintenance worker is dispatched with respect to all the elevators irrespective of the actual stop rate of the said area in the area where the high gal is detected, the elevator which has not stopped In addition, a maintenance worker has been dispatched, which has prolonged the recovery completion time, but the recovery time can be shortened as described above.

  Furthermore, in the above-mentioned Patent Document 1, when a large number of communication abnormalities occur as a measure when a line operator restricts outgoing / incoming calls for the purpose of avoiding congestion due to congestion of general public lines, We have also proposed a method of dispatching maintenance workers to all elevators in the area, but the occurrence rate of communication abnormalities and the damage situation due to earthquakes do not always match, and maintenance workers are also assigned to areas where damage is minimal. Since dispatching may be possible, the introduction of unnecessary human resources and a delay in completion of recovery have been invited, but the recovery time can be shortened as described above.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the first embodiment (FIG. 1), in the information center 100, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32 is provided with the stop prediction site list 323 and the output unit 34 is provided with the stop prediction site list 343. FIG. Similarly, the stop prediction site list 323 and the stop prediction site list 343 may be deleted.

FIG. 6 is a block configuration diagram showing an elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention. Components similar to those described above (see FIG. 1) are denoted by the same reference numerals as those described above, or Is followed by “A” and detailed description is omitted.
In FIG. 6, the earthquake damage prediction unit 32A and the output unit 34A in the information center 100A have the above-described stop prediction site list update unit 323 and stop prediction site list 343 deleted (FIG. 1).

  In this case, the total damage status calculation unit 321 and the system-specific damage status calculation unit 322 in the earthquake damage prediction unit 32A perform only the stop number prediction processing based on the report progress status 311 in the report progress status acquisition unit 31, and predictive stop The rate Py and the predicted stop number Ny (see FIG. 3), the system-specific reception ratio Px, and the system-specific predicted stop number Nxy (see FIG. 4) are calculated.

As shown in FIG. 6, even when using a normal information collecting means, it is possible to speed up the planning of the maintenance posture in an earthquake of a medium scale or smaller in which the damage status can be grasped.
In general, since the reception of reports is often completed before the recovery posture is prepared in an earthquake of a medium scale or smaller, by substituting the report progress status 311 in the report progress status acquisition unit 31 as a stop prediction site list 343 The effects equivalent to those of the first embodiment can be obtained.

Embodiment 3 FIG.
Although not particularly mentioned in the first and second embodiments (FIGS. 1 and 6), as shown in FIG. 7, a sample elevator list creating unit 36 is provided in the information center 100B and a storage unit 35B. The report delay time setting list 353 may be created in the inside.

  FIG. 7 is a block diagram schematically showing the entire earthquake damage prediction apparatus for an elevator according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. Components similar to those described above (see FIG. 1) are denoted by the same reference numerals. In addition, “B” is added after the reference numeral, and the detailed description is omitted.

  In FIG. 7, the sample elevator list creation unit 36 in the information center 100B automatically creates the sample elevator list 352 in the storage unit 35B and reports all elevators 1 (n) including elevators other than the sample elevator. The delay time is calculated, and the report delay time list 353 is automatically created in the storage unit 35.

Next, the operation of the sample elevator list creation unit 36 according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention shown in FIG. 7 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.
In FIG. 8, the sample elevator list creation unit 36 first reads stored information from the elevator earthquake damage database 351 in the storage unit 35 </ b> B, and determines the upper limit number of sample elevators and the conditions to be satisfied from the selection conditions of the sample elevator list 352. At least one or more are designated (step S31).
At this time, when a plurality of selection conditions are designated, priority may be given further among the selection conditions.

  Subsequently, a site that satisfies the specified conditions is extracted within a range that does not exceed the upper limit number of sample elevators specified in step S31 (step S32), and prediction is made for each earthquake that has occurred up to the point of selection of the sample elevator. A correlation between the stop rate Py and the stop rate Ps of the sample elevator (see the above formula (1)) is obtained (step S33).

  Next, an error (residual) ΔPy between the predicted stoppage rate Py and the actual stoppage rate in a plurality of past earthquakes calculated using the correlation equation created in step S33 is evaluated (step S34), and the error ΔPy is calculated. It is determined whether (the sum of squares) is less than or equal to an allowable value (step S35).

If it is determined in step S35 that error> allowable value (that is, NO), the process returns to step S32 and the above process is repeatedly executed.
On the other hand, if it is determined that error ≦ allowable value (that is, YES), the extracted elevator information is output to the sample elevator list 352 (step S36).

When the sample elevator selection process is completed in this manner, the notification delay time T (see the above-described equation (2)) is calculated for all the elevators 1 (n) (step S37).
Finally, the management number, the unit number, and the report delay time are output to the report delay time list 353 for all elevators 1 (n) (step S38), and the processing of the sample elevator list creation unit 36 is terminated (step S39). .

  As described above, the elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention includes the sample elevator list creation unit 36 connected to the storage unit 35B, and the sample elevator list creation unit 36 is determined in advance. A sample elevator is selected based on the given conditions, and a sample elevator list 352 and a notification delay time setting list 353 storing the notification delay times T of the plurality of elevators are created.

This makes it possible to automate the selection of sample elevators and delay time settings, so that even if there are changes in the number of elevators managed by the maintenance company, the location of the building, the model configuration, etc. Notification delay time can be set.
Therefore, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the stop rate and the number of stops for the entire prediction target area using the sample elevator.

Embodiment 4 FIG.
Although not particularly mentioned in the third embodiment (FIG. 7), as shown in FIG. 9, a notification delay time setting transmission unit 37 is provided in the information center 100C, and each elevator 1C (n) May be provided with notification delay time setting reception units 13-1 to 13-n (hereinafter collectively referred to as “report delay time setting reception unit 13 (n)”).

FIG. 9 is a block diagram schematically showing an entire elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 4 of the present invention. Components similar to those described above (see FIG. 7) are denoted by the same reference numerals. In addition, “C” is added after the reference numeral, and the detailed description is omitted.
Indicates.

In FIG. 9, the information center 100C includes a report delay time setting transmission unit 37 connected to the storage unit 35B.
Each of the n elevators 1C (n) is provided with a notification delay time setting reception unit 13 (n), and the notification delay time setting reception unit 13 (n) is connected via the general public line 2. The transmission information from the notification delay time setting transmission unit 37 is received.

  Here, the notification delay time setting transmission unit 37 is shown as a connection line (see the broken line in FIG. 9) with each elevator 1C (n) by a line different from the notification reception unit 30. The general public line 2 similar to that of the unit 30 may be shared.

Next, the operation of the report delay time setting transmission unit 37 according to the fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described.
The report delay time setting transmission unit 37 starts transmission with the report delay time list 353 created in the storage unit 35B.
At this time, in the notification delay time list 353, for example, in a state where the notification delay time of the first elevator 1C-1 is described as “10 minutes”, the current notification delay time setting of the elevator 1C-1 is “ “1 minute”.

The report delay time setting transmission unit 37 communicates with the report delay time setting reception unit 13-1 installed in the elevator 1C-1 through the general public line 2 so as to change the report time setting to “10 minutes”. I do.
The notification delay time setting reception unit 13-1 changes the notification delay time setting of the elevator 1C-1 from “1 minute” to “10 minutes” upon reception of communication from the notification delay time setting transmission unit 37.

Hereinafter, the report delay time setting transmission unit 37 communicates with all elevators having the report delay time setting reception unit 13 (n) described in the report delay time list 353, and changes the report delay time setting.
Thereby, the setting of the report delay time can be automatically changed without dispatching a maintenance worker to the elevator installation site. The communication processing between the notification delay time setting transmission unit 37 and the notification delay time setting reception unit 13 (n) may be divided into nights of a plurality of days to distribute the communication load.

As described above, the elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 4 of the present invention includes the report delay time setting transmission unit 37 connected to the storage unit 35B, and the report delay time setting transmission unit 37 includes: Based on the report delay time setting list 353 stored in the storage unit 35B, the report delay time setting is transmitted to the report delay time setting receiving unit 13 (n) installed in each of the plurality of elevators 1C (n). Therefore, the delay time setting can be automatically transmitted to each elevator 1C (n).
Moreover, the notification delay time can be easily set by setting the notification delay time of each elevator 1C (n) on the information center 100C side (remote).

In addition, the plurality of elevators 1C (n) are each provided with an earthquake detector 11 (n) and an automatic notification device 12 (n) as described above, and the automatic notification device 12 (n) includes the earthquake detector 11 It has a notification delay function in response to (n).
Further, the notification delay time setting receiving unit 13 (n) receives the notification delay time setting from the notification delay time setting transmission unit 37 and changes the notification delay time setting of the automatic notification device 12 (n). The delay time setting can be automatically transmitted to 1C (n).

1 is a block configuration diagram schematically showing an entire elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention; FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the characteristic waveform of the number of report reception in the report receiving part in FIG. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the total damage condition calculation part which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the operation | movement of the damage condition calculation part classified by structure which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the stop prediction site list update part which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a block block diagram which shows roughly the whole earthquake damage prediction apparatus of the elevator which concerns on Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is a block block diagram which shows schematically the whole earthquake damage prediction apparatus of the elevator which concerns on Embodiment 3 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the sample elevator list preparation part which concerns on Embodiment 3 of this invention. It is a block block diagram which shows schematically the whole earthquake damage prediction apparatus of the elevator which concerns on Embodiment 4 of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

  1-1 to 1-n, 1C-1 to 1C-n elevator, 2 public lines, 3, 3A, 3B, 3C earthquake damage prediction device, 11-1 to 11-n earthquake detector, 12-1 to 12 -N automatic report device, 13-1 to 13-n report delay time setting reception unit, 30 report reception unit, 31 report progress status acquisition unit, 32, 32A earthquake damage prediction unit, 33 input unit, 34 output unit, 35, 35B storage unit, 36 sample elevator list creation unit, 37 report delay time setting transmission unit, 100, 100A, 100B, 100C information center, 311 report progress status, 321 total damage status calculation unit, 322 system-specific damage calculation unit, 323 stop Prediction site list update unit, 341 Total damage status, 342 Damage status by system, 343 Stop prediction site list, 351 Elevator earthquake damage database, 35 2 Sample elevator list, 353 report delay time list.

Claims (10)

A storage unit having an elevator earthquake damage database obtained from information for identifying each elevator of a plurality of elevators and a maintenance response history in a past earthquake;
A report progress status acquisition unit for acquiring a report progress status regarding the plurality of elevators;
An elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus comprising: the elevator earthquake damage database; and an earthquake damage prediction unit that predicts earthquake damage based on the report progress status. A report receiving unit connected to the storage unit, the earthquake damage prediction unit and the report progress acquisition unit;
2. The elevator according to claim 1, wherein the notification receiving unit receives a notification from an automatic notification device installed in each of the plurality of elevators, and creates a notification progress status of the plurality of elevators. Earthquake damage prediction device. The storage unit has a sample elevator list describing a sample elevator among the plurality of elevators,
The earthquake damage prediction unit has a total damage status calculation unit,
The total damage status calculation unit calculates a stop rate of the sample elevator from the notification progress status, and predicts a total stop rate or a total number of stops in a prediction target area from the stop rate of the sample elevator. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1 or 2. A sample elevator list creating unit connected to the storage unit;
4. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the sample elevator list creation unit selects the sample elevator based on a predetermined condition and creates the sample elevator list. 5. A report delay time setting transmission unit connected to the storage unit;
The notification delay time setting transmission unit transmits a notification delay time setting to a notification delay time setting reception unit installed in each of the plurality of elevators based on a notification delay time setting list stored in the storage unit. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 4. A sample elevator list creating unit connected to the storage unit;
The elevator of claim 5, wherein the sample elevator list creating unit creates a report delay time setting list storing each report delay time of the plurality of elevators based on a predetermined condition. Earthquake damage prediction device.   The said report delay time setting receiving part receives the said report delay time setting, and changes the report delay time setting of the automatic notification apparatus respectively installed in these elevators. Earthquake damage prediction device for elevators. The earthquake damage prediction unit has a damage status calculation unit by system,
The system-specific damage status calculation unit obtains a report reception ratio by category determined by an elevator maintenance company from the report progress status, and predicts the damage rate or number of units by category. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 7. The earthquake damage prediction unit has a stop prediction site list update unit,
The said stop prediction site list update part correct | amends the prediction stop probability of an elevator using the said report progress status and the said elevator earthquake damage database, and produces the stop prediction site list in the said earthquake. The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 8.   An input unit and an output unit connected to at least one of the storage unit, the earthquake damage prediction unit, and the report progress status acquisition unit and having a man-machine interface function for inputting and outputting various types of information The elevator earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein:

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