JP2005031821A - Hydroelectric power station operation plan preparing device, method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To prepare the operation plan of a hydroelectric power station with the predicted error of a dam inflow water volume taken into consideration. <P>SOLUTION: A predicted error S12 associated with an inflow water volume in the past predetermined period is calculated based on an inflow water volume measured value D2 and an inflow water volume predicted value D4. Then, the predicted inflow water volume pattern at the operation plan preparation target date of a dam is prepared based on the calculated predicted error, and displayed to an operation plan preparator. The operation plan preparator is able to prepare a realistic operation plan with the predicted error taken into consideration by referring to the predicted inflow water volume. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

【００３２】
処理ブロック２０４：流入量予測データと予測誤差データを利用した複数の流入量予測データの作成
流入量予測データと予測誤差データを利用して複数の流入量予測データを作成するために、制御装置２から流入量計算装置５へ制御信号Ｓ７を送信する。制御信号Ｓ７を受信した流入量計算装置５は、過去実績データベース９より「予測精度」、流入量予測データベース１１より「流入予測値」，「作成日」，初期条件格納データベース８より「流入量パターン数」のデータＤ７を受信する。
【００３３】
たとえば、処理ブロック２０１において、入力装置１で「作成日」を２００２年１２月３１日、「作成対象日」を２００３年１月１日、「対象とする至近日の期間」を３日間、「流入パターン数」３とした場合、過去実績データベース９より２００２年１２月２８日から２００２年１２月３０日の「予測精度」データ、流入量予測データベース１１より２００３年１月１日の「流入量予測値」データを受信する。
【００３４】
ここで、前記受信したデータを利用して、各時刻で複数の流入量予測データを作成する。複数の流入量予測データは、計画対象日の至近日の中で同一時刻の予測精度データの最小値と最大値の範囲内で、初期条件格納データベース８に格納されている「流入パターン数」の予測精度を作成し、作成した予測精度と流入量予測データベース１１から受信した「流入量予測値」を積算して求める。
【００３５】
たとえば、２００２年１２月２８日から２００２年１２月３０日の「予測精度」データの中で、１時の予測精度がそれぞれ、１０％，３０％，１５％、初期条件格納データベース８に格納されている「流入パターン数」を３とした場合、予測精度の最小値１０％と最大値３０％の範囲内で３つの予測精度を等間隔で作成する場合、予測精度は、１０％，２０％，３０％となる。
【００３６】
前記処理内容で流入量計算装置５で複数の流入量予測データを作成した後、流入量予測データベース１１に複数の流入量予測データＤ８を送信し、制御信号Ｓ８を制御装置２へ送信する。
【００３７】
制御装置２では、制御信号Ｓ８を受信後、次の処理ブロック２０５へ進む。
【００３８】
処理ブロック２０５：複数の流入量予測データの水力発電所運用計画の作成
制御装置２から制御信号Ｓ９を水力発電所運用計画作成装置６へ送信する。水力発電所運用計画作成装置６では、処理ブロック２０４で作成した複数の流入量予測データに対して水力発電所運用計画を作成する。具体的な運用計画の作成方法に関しては、例えば特許文献１又は特許文献２に記載の方法を用いる。
【００３９】
以上のようにして、計算機で水力発電所の運用計画を作成する装置において、計画対象日の至近日のダム流入量の予測誤差データを利用して、複数の流入量予測データを作成し、その流入量予測データに対して計画を作成することで、ダム流入量の予測誤差を考慮した現実的な計画を提供することができる。
【００４０】
本実施例では、１つのダムを対象とした水力発電所運用計画作成について説明したが、１つの河川に複数のダムが存在する連接水系の場合も同様に適用できる。
【００４１】
【発明の効果】
本発明によると、計画対象日の至近日の流入量予測誤差データを利用して、流入量予測データを作成し、そのデータに対する水力発電所運用計画を作成することで、実運用に適した計画を提供することができる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】水力発電所運用計画作成装置の構成。
【図２】作成日，初期条件格納するデータベースの構成図。
【図３】過去実績データベースの構成図。
【図４】ダム設備データベースの構成図。
【図５】流入量予測データベースの構成図。
【図６】運用計画データベースの構成図。
【図７】水力発電所運用計画の作成処理フロー図。
【符号の説明】
１…入力装置、２…制御装置、３…データ読込装置、４…データ検索装置、５…流入量計算装置、６…水力発電所運用計画作成装置、７…予測精度計算装置、８…作成日，初期条件格納データベース、９…過去実績データベース、１０…ダム設備データベース、１１…流入量予測データベース、１２…運用計画データベース、Ｓ１…制御装置２から入力装置１を制御する信号、Ｓ２…入力装置１での処理終了状態を制御装置２へ通信する信号、Ｓ３…制御装置２からデータ読込装置３を制御する信号、Ｓ４…データ読込装置３の処理終了状態を制御装置２へ通信する信号、Ｓ５…制御装置２からデータ検索装置４を制御する信号、Ｓ６…データ検索装置４の処理終了状態を制御装置２へ通信する信号、Ｓ７…制御装置２から流入量計算装置５を制御する信号、Ｓ８…流入量計算装置５の処理終了状態を制御装置２へ通信する信号、Ｓ９…制御装置２から水力発電所運用計画作成装置６を制御する信号、Ｓ１０…水力発電所運用計画作成装置６の処理終了状態を制御装置２へ通信する信号、Ｄ１…入力装置１から作成日，初期条件格納データベース８へ送信する作成日，作成対象日データ、Ｄ２…過去実績データベース９からデータ読込装置３へ送信する過去の実績データのダム名称，放流量，流入量（実績）、Ｄ３…ダム設備データベース１０からデータ読込装置３へ送信するダム設備データ、Ｄ４…流入量予測データベース１１からデータ読込装置３へ送信する流入量予測データ、Ｄ５…作成日，初期条件格納データベース８からデータ読込装置３へ送信する作成日，作成対象日データ，初期条件データ、Ｄ６…データ読込装置３からデータ検索装置４へ送信する過去実績データ、Ｄ７…データ読込装置３から流入量計算装置５へ送信する流入量（実績）データ、Ｄ８…流入量計算装置５から流入量予測データベース１１へ送信する複数の流入量予測データ、Ｄ９…予測精度計算装置７から過去実績データベース９へ送信する予測精度データ、Ｄ１０…水力発電所運用計画作成装置６から運用計画データベース１２へ送信するデータ。[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a method for creating an operation plan for a hydroelectric power plant on a computer in a power supply command station, a dam management station, a hydroelectric power plant, or the like that operates and manages the dam.
[0002]
[Prior art]
As conventional techniques for the operation plan of a hydroelectric power plant, there are JP-A-5-91799 (hereinafter referred to as Patent Document 1) and JP-A-2002-278603 (hereinafter referred to as Patent Document 2). They describe how to create a high-quality operation plan in a practical processing time.
[0003]
[Patent Document 1]
JP-A-5-91799 [Patent Document 2]
Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2002-278603 [0004]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
It is difficult to create a plan that can be applied to actual operation because the prediction accuracy of the dam inflow, which is the input data for the operation plan of the hydropower plant, is not good.
[0005]
The present invention predicts the amount of water flowing into a dam that is input data of the hydropower plant operation plan using the prediction error of the amount of water flowing into the dam in the nearest day of the target date for planning the operation of the hydropower plant. It is to provide an apparatus that can create an operation plan of a hydroelectric power station suitable for actual operation by creating a plan that reflects a prediction error.
[0006]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
The present invention is a dam inflow water amount creation device that uses a prediction error obtained by a prediction accuracy calculation device that calculates the prediction accuracy of the amount of water flowing into a dam, and predicts a plurality of dam inflow amounts from the predicted amount of water flowing into the dam. A hydropower plant operation plan suitable for actual operation is provided by creating a pattern and creating an optimal hydropower plant operation plan with the optimum operation plan creation device for each pattern of water flow into the dam. .
[0007]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS.
[0008]
FIG. 1 shows a hydropower plant operation plan creation device, which includes an input device for inputting an operation plan creation date, a control device 2 for performing overall control of the process, a creation date, an initial condition storage database 8, a past performance database 9, and a dam. A data reading device 3 for reading data stored in the facility database 10 and the inflow prediction database 11, and a search for data stored in the past performance database 9 and the inflow prediction database 11 under certain conditions. Data search device 4, prediction accuracy calculation device 7 for calculating the prediction accuracy of the inflow amount, inflow prediction accuracy as the calculation result of the prediction accuracy calculation device 7 and inflow prediction value as the input data of the hydropower plant operation plan An inflow calculation device that calculates the inflow considering the prediction accuracy by using the hydropower generator that creates the optimal hydropower plant operation plan from the given input data It indicates that constitutes a production plan database 12 for storing the hydroelectric power plant operation plan created planning device 6, in hydroelectric plants operation plan creation device 6 production place.
[0009]
The input device 1 informs the user of the input of the operation plan creation date and the hydropower plant operation plan creation target date by the control signal S1 from the control device 2. When the user inputs the operation plan creation date and the hydropower plant operation plan target date from the input device 1, the user transmits a control signal S 2 from the input device 1 to the control device 2. After receiving the control signal S <b> 2, the control device 2 stores D <b> 1, which is data on the operation plan creation date and the hydropower plant operation plan target date, in the creation date / initial condition storage database 8.
[0010]
The data reading device 3 that has received the control signal S3 from the control device 2 receives the operation plan creation date, the data D5 stored in the initial condition storage database 8, the data D2 stored in the past performance database 9, and the dam equipment database The data D3 stored in 10 and the data D4 stored in the inflow prediction database 11 are read. After the data reading is completed, the data reading device 3 transmits a control signal S4 to the control device 2.
[0011]
The data search device 4 that has received the control signal S5 transmitted from the control device 2 searches the data D6 of the data reading device 3 under a certain condition, and transmits the control signal S6 to the control device 2 after the search is completed.
[0012]
The prediction accuracy calculation device 7 that has received the control signal S11 transmitted from the control device 2 searches the data D11 of the data reading device 3 under a certain condition, and transmits the control signal S12 to the control device 2 after the search is completed.
[0013]
The inflow amount calculation device 5 that has received the control signal S7 transmitted from the control device 2 receives the data D7 from the data reading device 3, and transmits the processing result in the inflow amount calculation device 5 to the inflow amount prediction database 11. Thereafter, a control signal S8 is transmitted from the inflow amount calculation device 5 to the control device 2.
[0014]
The hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6 that has received the control signal S9 transmitted from the control device 2 receives the data D12 from the data reading device 3, creates an operation plan for the hydropower plant, and transmits it to the operation plan database 12. To do. Thereafter, a control signal S10 is transmitted from the hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6 to the control device 2.
[0015]
FIG. 2 shows the database configuration of the operation plan creation date / initial condition storage database 8 shown in FIG. The operation plan creation date data is composed of creation date and creation target date data. The initial condition storage database includes the input data of the processing of the inflow amount calculation device 5 "the period of the nearest target day", "number of inflow amount patterns", "whether the inflow amount pattern number is 1", "inflow amount" The prediction error value used when the number of patterns is 1 item.
[0016]
FIG. 3 shows the structure of the database of the performance database 9 shown in FIG. 1, and data items such as “data date / time”, “dam discharge”, “inflow”, “prediction accuracy”, etc. It is composed of When creating an operation plan for a plurality of dams, a performance database 9 exists for each dam.
[0017]
FIG. 4 shows the configuration of the dam facility database 10 shown in FIG. 1. The “dam name”, “number of generators”, “effective water depth”, “operating water level upper limit value”, “operating water level lower limit value” are shown. ”,“ Usage water amount upper limit value ”,“ Usage water amount lower limit value ”, and“ Electric water ratio ”data items.
[0018]
FIG. 5 shows the structure of the inflow amount prediction database 11 shown in FIG. 1, which is composed of “data date / time”, “inflow amount prediction value”, and “inflow amount correction calculation value”. ing.
[0019]
FIG. 6 shows the database configuration of the operation plan database 12 shown in FIG. 1, and the data of “date and time of data”, “amount of water used”, “gate discharge”, and “power generation” of the dam. It consists of items.
[0020]
FIG. 7 shows a processing flow for creating a hydropower plant operation plan. Hereinafter, the process of creating the hydropower plant operation plan will be described according to the process flow of FIG.
[0021]
Processing block 201: Creation date and initial condition input The input device 1 prompts the user to input an operation plan creation date and initial conditions by a control signal S1 from the control device 2. When the user inputs the creation date of the hydropower plant operation plan and the input data of the inflow amount calculation device 5 from the input device 1, such as “period of the nearest target date”, the control is performed from the input device 1 to the control device 2. Signal S2 is transmitted. In the control device 2, after receiving the control signal S 2, the creation date of the hydropower plant operation plan, the data D 1 such as “the nearest period of interest” that is the input data of the inflow amount calculation device 5, the creation date, Store in the initial condition storage database 8, and proceed to processing block 202.
[0022]
Processing block 202: The control signal S3 is transmitted to the data reading device 3 from the reading control device 2 for the dam equipment data and the inflow prediction data for the operation plan target date. The data reading device 3 that has received the control signal S2 receives the data D3, D4, and D5 stored in the creation date, initial condition storage database 8, dam facility database 10, and inflow prediction database 11.
[0023]
Specifically, from the creation date / initial condition storage database 8, “operation plan creation date”, “creation target date”, “target near-term period”, and “number of inflow patterns” are received. At this time, if the content of the flow rate pattern number data is “1”, the data item “prediction error value used for the inflow amount value when the inflow pattern number = 1” is also received.
[0024]
From the dam facility database 10, “dam name”, “number of generators”, “effective water depth”, “operating water level upper limit value”, “operating water level lower limit value”, “operating water amount upper limit value”, “used water amount lower limit value” , Data D3 of “electric water ratio (output per unit amount of water)” is received.
[0025]
From the inflow amount prediction database 11, “inflow amount prediction value” data D 4 having the same date and time as the “date of creation” received from the initial condition storage database 8 is received. After the process is completed, a control signal S4 is transmitted to the control device 2.
[0026]
The control device 2 proceeds to the next processing block 203 after receiving the control signal S4.
[0027]
Processing block 203: The control signal S11 is transmitted to the prediction accuracy calculation device 7 from the prediction error data creation control device 2 from the operation plan creation date and the latest date data set in the initial conditions. The data reading device 3 that has received the control signal S11 reads from the past record database 9 and the inflow prediction database 11 the creation date input in the processing block 201, stored in the initial condition storage database 8, and Inflow data D2 and predicted inflow data D4 for the target period are received from the data item “period”.
[0028]
For example, in the processing block 201, the “creation date” is set to December 31, 2002, the “creation target date” is set to January 1, 2003, and the “target latest period” is set to three days in the input device 1. In this case, from the past performance database 9 to the “inflow (actual)” data from December 28, 2002 to December 30, 2002, from the inflow prediction database 11 from December 28, 2002 to December 30, 2002. Receives “inflow predicted value” data.
[0029]
From the received data “flow rate (actual)” data and “flow rate predicted value” data, prediction error data for each time of day is created using Equation 1 and transmitted to the past performance database 9. . After the process is completed, a control signal S12 is transmitted to the control device 2.
[0030]
The control device 2 proceeds to the next processing block 204 after receiving the control signal S12.
[0031]
[Expression 1]

[0032]
Processing block 204: Creation of a plurality of inflow prediction data using inflow prediction data and prediction error data In order to create a plurality of inflow prediction data using inflow prediction data and prediction error data, the control device 2 Transmits the control signal S7 to the inflow amount calculation device 5. The inflow amount calculation device 5 that has received the control signal S7 receives “prediction accuracy” from the past performance database 9, “inflow predicted value” from the inflow amount prediction database 11, “creation date”, and “inflow amount pattern from the initial condition storage database 8. Number "data D7 is received.
[0033]
For example, in the processing block 201, the “creation date” is set to December 31, 2002, the “creation target date” is set to January 1, 2003, and the “target immediate period” is set to “three days” When the number of inflow patterns is “3”, “prediction accuracy” data from December 28, 2002 to December 30, 2002 from the past performance database 9, and “inflow amount” from January 1, 2003 from the inflow prediction database 11. "Predicted value" data is received.
[0034]
Here, a plurality of inflow prediction data is created at each time using the received data. The plurality of inflow amount prediction data includes “the number of inflow patterns” stored in the initial condition storage database 8 within the range of the minimum value and the maximum value of the prediction accuracy data at the same time in the nearest day of the planning target date. A prediction accuracy is created, and the created prediction accuracy and the “inflow prediction value” received from the inflow prediction database 11 are integrated to obtain.
[0035]
For example, among the “prediction accuracy” data from December 28, 2002 to December 30, 2002, the prediction accuracy at 1 o'clock is stored in the initial condition storage database 8 respectively 10%, 30%, 15%. Assuming that the number of inflow patterns is 3, the prediction accuracy is 10% and 20% when three prediction accuracy are created at regular intervals within the range of the minimum value 10% and the maximum value 30%. , 30%.
[0036]
After the inflow amount calculation device 5 creates a plurality of inflow amount prediction data with the processing contents, a plurality of inflow amount prediction data D8 is transmitted to the inflow amount prediction database 11, and a control signal S8 is transmitted to the control device 2.
[0037]
The control device 2 proceeds to the next processing block 205 after receiving the control signal S8.
[0038]
Process block 205: A control signal S9 is transmitted from the hydropower plant operation plan creation control device 2 for a plurality of inflow prediction data to the hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6. The hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6 creates a hydropower plant operation plan for the plurality of inflow prediction data created in the processing block 204. For a specific operation plan creation method, for example, the method described in Patent Document 1 or Patent Document 2 is used.
[0039]
As described above, in a device that creates a hydropower plant operation plan with a computer, a plurality of inflow prediction data is created using the prediction error data of the dam inflow on the day of the planning date. By creating a plan for the inflow prediction data, it is possible to provide a realistic plan that takes into account the prediction error of the dam inflow.
[0040]
In the present embodiment, the hydropower plant operation plan creation for one dam has been described. However, the present invention can be similarly applied to a case of a connected water system in which a plurality of dams exist in one river.
[0041]
【The invention's effect】
According to the present invention, the inflow prediction data is created using the inflow prediction error data of the nearest day of the planning target date, and the hydropower plant operation plan for the data is created, so that the plan suitable for actual operation Can be provided.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 shows the configuration of a hydropower plant operation plan creation device.
FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of a database for storing creation dates and initial conditions.
FIG. 3 is a configuration diagram of a past performance database.
FIG. 4 is a configuration diagram of a dam facility database.
FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of an inflow prediction database.
FIG. 6 is a configuration diagram of an operation plan database.
FIG. 7 is a flowchart of a hydropower plant operation plan creation process.
[Explanation of symbols]
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Input device, 2 ... Control device, 3 ... Data reading device, 4 ... Data search device, 5 ... Inflow amount calculation device, 6 ... Hydroelectric power plant operation plan creation device, 7 ... Prediction accuracy calculation device, 8 ... Creation date , Initial condition storage database, 9 ... past performance database, 10 ... dam facility database, 11 ... inflow prediction database, 12 ... operation plan database, S1 ... signal for controlling input device 1 from control device 2, S2 ... input device 1 A signal for communicating the processing end state in step S3 to the control device 2, a signal for controlling the data reading device 3 from the control device 2, a signal for communicating the processing end state of the data reading device 3 to the control device 2, S5. A signal for controlling the data search device 4 from the control device 2, S6: a signal for communicating the processing end state of the data search device 4 to the control device 2, S7: an inflow amount calculation device 5 from the control device 2 Signal to control, S8 ... Signal for communicating processing end state of inflow amount calculation device 5 to control device 2, S9 ... Signal for controlling hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6 from control device 2, S10 ... Hydropower plant operation plan Signal for communicating the processing end state of the creation device 6 to the control device 2, D1: creation date from the input device 1, creation date to be sent to the initial condition storage database 8, creation target date data, D2 ... data read from the past result database 9 The past dam name, discharge flow rate, inflow amount (actual result) to be transmitted to the device 3, D3 ... dam facility data to be transmitted from the dam facility database 10 to the data reading device 3, D4 ... data read from the inflow amount prediction database 11 Inflow prediction data to be transmitted to the device 3, D5 ... creation date, creation date to be transmitted from the initial condition storage database 8 to the data reading device 3, and creation target date Data, initial condition data, D6... Past performance data transmitted from the data reading device 3 to the data retrieval device 4, D7... Inflow amount (actual) data transmitted from the data reading device 3 to the inflow amount calculating device 5, D8. A plurality of inflow prediction data to be transmitted from the amount calculation device 5 to the inflow amount prediction database 11, D9... Prediction accuracy data to be transmitted from the prediction accuracy calculation device 7 to the past performance database 9, D10... From the hydropower plant operation plan creation device 6. Data to be transmitted to the operation plan database 12.

Claims (5)

Inflow water amount prediction means for predicting the amount of water flowing into the dam,
Inflow water amount storage means for storing a measured value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam during a predetermined period in the past;
Inflow water amount predicted value storage means for storing a predicted value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam during a predetermined period in the past;
Prediction error calculation means for calculating a prediction error related to the inflow water amount in a predetermined past period based on the inflow water amount measurement value stored in the inflow water amount storage means and the inflow water amount prediction value stored in the inflow water amount prediction value storage means;
A predicted inflow water amount pattern creating means for creating a predicted inflow water amount pattern for a dam operation plan creation day based on the prediction error calculated by the prediction error calculating means;
A hydropower plant operation plan creation device comprising: display means for displaying the predicted inflow water quantity pattern created by the predicted inflow water quantity pattern creation means. 2. The hydropower plant operation plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the hydropower plant operation plan is created based on the inflow water amount pattern created by the predicted inflow water amount pattern creation means. In Claim 1, the inflow water amount pattern number receiving means for inputting the predicted inflow water amount pattern number;
The predicted inflow water amount pattern creating means has a predicted inflow water amount pattern of the number of patterns received by the inflow pattern number receiving means within the range of the maximum and minimum prediction errors of the past predetermined period calculated by the prediction error calculating means. Hydropower plant operation plan creation device characterized by creating Inflow water amount prediction means for predicting the amount of water flowing into the dam with a computer,
Inflow water amount storage means for storing a measured value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam during a predetermined period in the past,
Inflow water amount predicted value storage means for storing a predicted value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam during a past predetermined period,
A prediction error calculation means for calculating a prediction error related to the inflow water amount in the past predetermined period based on the inflow water amount measurement value stored in the inflow water amount storage means and the inflow water amount prediction value stored in the inflow water amount prediction value storage means;
Predicted influent water amount pattern creating means for creating a predicted influent water amount pattern on the dam operation plan creation date based on the prediction error calculated by the prediction error calculating means,
A hydropower plant operation plan creation program that functions as display means for displaying a predicted inflow water amount pattern created by the predicted inflow water amount pattern creation means. An inflow water amount prediction step for predicting the amount of water flowing into the dam;
An inflow water amount storing step for storing a measured value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam during a predetermined period in the past;
An inflow water amount predicted value storage step for storing a predicted value of the amount of water that has flowed into the dam in a past predetermined period;
A prediction error calculation step of calculating a prediction error related to the inflow water amount in a predetermined past period based on the inflow water amount measurement value stored in the inflow water amount storage unit and the inflow water amount prediction value stored in the inflow water amount prediction value storage unit;
A predicted inflow water amount pattern creating step for creating a predicted inflow water amount pattern of a dam operation plan creation date based on the prediction error calculated by the prediction error calculating means;
A hydropower plant operation plan creation method comprising: a display step for displaying the predicted inflow water amount pattern created by the predicted inflow water amount pattern creation means.

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