JP5153805B2 - Water storage facility operation support system, operation support method and program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To support operation in a water storage facility such that a power selling amount or power generated by water-power generation can be increased. <P>SOLUTION: An operation water level planning part of an optimum storage water level calculation system changes a water storage amount of each unit period t, performs simulation, determines a combination between the water storage amounts wherein a total of generated power amounts or the power selling amount becomes maximum, and outputs it together with a calculated operation water level based on the determined water storage amounts. When a water intake amount Qt of each unit period t is less than an operation limit water intake amount Q0min about the determined combination between the water storage amounts, the operation water level planning part changes the water intake amount Qt into a minimum water intake amount Qmin. The operation water level planning part also changes the water intake amount Qt into the minimum water intake amount Qmin when the water intake amount Qt of each unit period t is less than a lower limit value, and changes the water intake amount Qt into a maximum water intake amount Qmax when the water intake amount Qt is not less than the lower limit value. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&amp;INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a system, method, and program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility.

  In order to efficiently perform hydropower generation, a computer-based operation support system is used. For example, in Patent Document 1, a generator operation plan and a water level plan that are automatically calculated based on the amount of discharged water per day, a past generator operation plan and actual data of the water level plan, etc. are displayed, and corrections are made as necessary. Accepting and preparing a power generation operation plan.

JP 2006-39838 A

  The higher the position of water, the greater the potential energy, the faster the flow rate, and the greater the amount of power generated in hydropower generation. However, in the apparatus described in Patent Document 1, although the water level is planned according to the amount of water discharged and the actual results, the water level is not increased due to the relationship between the water level plan and the generated power, and the generated power is increased. You can't plan.

  This invention is made | formed in view of such a background, and it aims at providing the system, method, and program which support operation | use of a water storage facility so that the electric power generated by hydroelectric power generation can be increased.

A main invention of the present invention for solving the above problems is a system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period is determined. Predicted inflow acquisition unit for acquiring a predicted value, and used for the hydroelectric power generation based on the stored water amount difference and the inflow amount that is the difference in the stored water amount in the water storage facility from the start time to the end time of the unit period Calculation model for calculating a water intake amount that is an amount of water to be generated, and a power amount calculation for calculating a power amount generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water storage amount and the water intake amount A model storage unit for storing a model, and for each unit period within the predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the unit Applying the predicted value of the inflow amount to the intake amount calculation model to calculate the intake amount, and applying the changed storage amount and the calculated intake amount to the electric energy calculation model An optimal storage amount determination unit that determines, as an optimal storage amount plan, a combination of the storage amounts that maximizes the evaluation value according to the amount of power, and is included in the unit storage period and the optimal storage amount plan the reservoir capacity, and the water storage planning storage unit that stores in association with the water intake for each of the unit periods in the water storage planning storage unit, when the intake amount is above a predetermined threshold value, the A reduction value of the stored water amount is calculated according to a predetermined maximum value that is a water intake amount that maximizes the power generation efficiency of hydroelectric power generation, and the water storage amount plan storage is performed so that the water intake amount becomes the maximum value for the unit period. Part New, and a water amount adjusting unit configured to update the reservoir capacity planning storage unit by subtracting the reduction value from the respective storage volume of the water storage planning storage unit corresponding to the unit period after the said unit period I will do it.

  According to the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, simulation can be performed by changing the amount of stored water, and an optimal water level can be presented according to the amount of power generated within a predetermined period. As a result, the operator of the water storage facility can manage the water level of the water storage facility according to the output from the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, and can manage the optimal water level. The water level that has been managed based on this can be used by inexperienced ones.

  In addition, it is known that the generator of hydroelectric power generation has the highest power generation efficiency when the maximum water intake amount is given. According to the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the water intake amount of each unit period is predetermined. If it is equal to or more than the threshold value, the water intake can be adjusted to the maximum water intake, so that the generator can be operated efficiently.

Further, in the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the water storage amount adjustment unit further includes a predetermined minimum if the water intake amount is less than the threshold for each of the unit periods in the water storage amount plan storage unit. wherein calculating the increment of the water amount corresponding to the value, and updates the reservoir capacity plan storage unit so that the water intake for the unit period is the minimum value, corresponding to the unit period after the unit period You may make it add the said increase value to each said water storage amount of the said water storage amount plan memory | storage part, and update the said water storage amount plan memory | storage part.
In this case, when the water intake optimized according to the evaluation value of the generated power is smaller than a predetermined threshold, the water intake is adjusted to be set to a predetermined minimum value (for example, “0”). be able to. Therefore, since it is possible to avoid operating the generator by supplying a halfway amount of water, the generator can be operated more efficiently.

In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimal water storage amount determination unit may determine the optimal water storage amount plan using the power amount as the evaluation value.
In this case, it is possible to present a water level that maximizes the amount of power generated within a predetermined period. Therefore, efficient hydroelectric power generation can be performed.

Further, the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention includes a power price acquisition unit that acquires a price per unit power in each unit period, and the optimum water storage amount determination unit determines the price corresponding to the unit period as the price. The evaluation value may be calculated by reading from the power price acquisition unit and multiplying the read power by the power amount.
In this case, since the operation water level can be determined so as to maximize the final sales price, the operation of the water storage facility can be supported so as to be more effective for the commercial enterprise. Further, for example, even when the power price fluctuates greatly, it is possible to determine an effective water level so that a large amount of power can be generated at a high price.

  The water storage facility operation support system of the present invention further includes a water storage amount setting value storage unit that stores an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the water storage amount, and the optimum water storage amount determination unit stores the water storage amount at the start time of the unit period. May be changed at predetermined steps from the lower limit value to the upper limit value to calculate the electric energy for each unit period.

In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimum water storage amount determination unit may determine the optimum water storage amount combination by dynamic programming.
In this case, by using the dynamic programming method, it is possible to more efficiently determine an enormous combination of water storage amounts.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein a computer calculates a predicted value of the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period. The amount of water intake that is the amount of water used for the hydroelectric power generation based on the difference in the amount of stored water that is the difference in the amount of stored water in the water storage facility from the start point to the end point of the unit period and the inflow amount A water intake amount calculation model for calculating the amount of electric power generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water storage amount and the water intake amount, and stored in a memory, For each unit period within a predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the predicted value of the inflow amount in the unit period are changed to the water intake amount. Apply the calculation model to calculate the amount of water intake, apply the changed amount of stored water and the calculated intake water amount to the power amount calculation model to calculate the amount of power, and according to the amount of power Determining a combination of the water storage amount that maximizes the evaluation value as an optimal water storage amount plan, and storing the unit period, the water storage amount included in the optimal water storage amount plan, and the water intake amount in association with each other; for each of the unit period, when the intake amount is above a predetermined threshold value, it calculates a reduction value of the water amount corresponding to the predetermined maximum value is a water intake to maximize the power generation efficiency of the hydroelectric and, updating the memorized water intake as the water intake for the unit period is the maximum value, the by subtracting the reduction value from the respective storage volume corresponding to the unit period after the said unit period Remembered water storage And to update the.

Another aspect of the present invention is a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein a predicted value of an inflow amount of water into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period is stored in a computer. The amount of water intake that is the amount of water used for the hydroelectric power generation based on the difference in the amount of stored water that is the difference in the amount of stored water in the water storage facility from the start point to the end point of the unit period and the inflow amount Storing in a memory a water intake amount calculation model for calculating a water intake amount calculation model for calculating a power amount generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water storage amount and the water intake amount For each unit period within the predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the inflow amount in the unit period are changed. Applying a predicted value to the water intake amount calculation model to calculate the water intake amount, applying the changed water storage amount and the calculated water intake amount to the power amount calculation model to calculate the power amount, Corresponding the step of determining the combination of the water storage amount that maximizes the evaluation value according to the amount of power as the optimum water storage amount plan, the unit period, the water storage amount included in the optimum water storage amount plan, and the water intake amount and storing in said memory, followed by, for each of the unit period, when the intake amount is above a predetermined threshold value, a predetermined maximum value which is water intake to maximize the power generation efficiency of the hydroelectric calculating a reduced value of corresponding said water storage, updating the memorized water intake as the water intake for the unit period is the maximum value, each reservoir corresponding to the unit period after the unit period And updating the water volume that the storage by subtracting the reduction value from, and thereby the execution.

  Other problems and solutions to be disclosed by the present application will be made clear by the embodiments of the invention and the drawings.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, operation | use of a water storage facility can be supported so that the electric power generated by hydroelectric power generation can be increased.

It is a figure showing the whole water level operation support system composition of this embodiment. It is a graph which shows the change of inflow. It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of the inflow amount prediction system 100 of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the software structure of the inflow amount prediction system 100 of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of weather inflow amount track record information. It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of the optimal water storage level calculation system. It is a figure which shows the software configuration of the optimal water storage level calculation system. It is a figure which shows the structural example of specification information. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the electric power price database 253. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the operational water level database. It is a figure which shows an example of the screen 60 used for the simulation of a working water level. It is a figure explaining the flow of processing which makes a generator highly efficient. It is a figure which shows an example of the screen 62 displayed after performing a highly efficient process.

  Hereinafter, a water level operation support system in a water storage facility according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The water level operation support system according to the present embodiment supports planning of the water level of a water storage facility such as a dam used for hydroelectric power generation. The water level operation support system of the present embodiment predicts the amount of water flowing into a water storage facility, and based on the predicted amount of inflow and weather information, the amount of power generated by the generator and its price (hereinafter referred to as power selling). The water level is calculated every predetermined unit period (6 hours in the present embodiment) so that the amount of power sold is maximized.

== System configuration ==
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a water level operation support system according to the present embodiment.
The water level operation support system of the present embodiment calculates an optimal water level in a water storage facility, and an inflow prediction system 100 that predicts the amount of water flowing into a water facility from a river (hereinafter referred to as inflow, referred to as R). The sub-system is configured to include two sub-systems with the optimum water level calculation system 200. Each of the inflow prediction system 100 and the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 is a computer such as a personal computer, a workstation, or a PDA (Personal Digital Assistance). The inflow amount prediction system 100 and the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 may be configured by a plurality of computers.

  The inflow amount prediction system 100 and the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 are connected to each other via a communication network 300 so as to communicate with each other. The communication network 300 is, for example, the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network). The communication network 300 is constructed by, for example, Ethernet (registered trademark), a public telephone line network, a wireless communication network, or the like.

== Inflow prediction system 100 ==
The inflow amount prediction system 100 improves the prediction accuracy by predicting the inflow amount in consideration of the snowmelt amount.

  FIG. 2 is a graph showing changes in the inflow amount. Even when there is no precipitation or snowmelt, there is a predetermined inflow due to, for example, oozing from a forest. Therefore, if there is no precipitation or snowmelt, the inflow will gradually decrease to a predetermined equilibrium value (hereinafter referred to as equilibrium inflow) (a). On the other hand, if there is precipitation, the amount of water flowing temporarily increases accordingly, but the precipitation stops and starts decreasing again toward the equilibrium inflow (b). On the other hand, when the temperature rises, snow melting occurs and the amount of running water increases accordingly, but the effect of snow melting on the inflow is more gradual than that of precipitation (c). This is a case where, for example, snow melting continuously occurs when the average temperature rises during the period from winter to spring.

  Therefore, in the inflow prediction system 100 of the present embodiment, paying attention to precipitation, snowmelt, and equilibrium inflow, parameters are set based on actual values of weather data such as past temperature and precipitation and a regression model described later. Estimated and estimated parameters, for example, predicted values of temperature (hereinafter referred to as predicted temperatures) obtained from, for example, weather forecasts, and predicted values of precipitation (hereinafter referred to as predicted rainfall) are applied to the regression model. Calculate the predicted value of the quantity.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the inflow prediction system 100 according to the present embodiment. The inflow amount prediction system 100 includes a CPU 101, a memory 102, a storage device 103, a communication interface 104, an input device 105, and an output device 106. The storage device 103 stores various programs and data, for example, a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a CD-ROM drive, or the like. The CPU 101 implements various functions by reading a program stored in the storage device 103 into the memory 102 and executing it. The communication interface 104 is an interface for connecting to the communication network 300. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, a communication device for performing wireless communication, etc. It is. The input device 105 is, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or a microphone that receives data input from a user. The output device 106 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the inflow prediction system 100 according to the present embodiment. The inflow prediction system 100 according to the present embodiment includes a snowfall temperature estimation unit 111, a snowmelt model estimation unit 112, an inflow model estimation unit 113, a predicted temperature acquisition unit 114, a predicted precipitation acquisition unit 115, and a predicted snowmelt acquisition unit 116. , An inflow amount prediction unit 117, a model storage unit 151, a parameter storage unit 152, and a meteorological and inflow amount result database 153. In addition, the snowfall temperature estimation unit 111, the snowmelt amount model estimation unit 112, the inflow amount model estimation unit 113, the predicted temperature acquisition unit 114, the predicted precipitation amount acquisition unit 115, the predicted snowmelt amount acquisition unit 116, and the inflow amount prediction unit 117 This is realized by the CPU 101 of the inflow amount prediction system 100 reading out the program stored in the storage device 103 to the memory 102 and executing it.

  The meteorological and inflow history database 153 stores a history of information (hereinafter referred to as meteorological inflow history information) including various actual values of meteorology and actual values of inflow. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the weather inflow history information stored in the weather and inflow history database 153. As shown in the drawing, the meteorological inflow amount information includes temperature, precipitation, snowfall, snow cover, snowmelt, and inflow in association with the date. The temperature is the average daily temperature. Precipitation, snowfall and snowmelt are cumulative values of daily precipitation, snowfall and snowmelt. The snow cover is the snow cover observed on that day. The inflow is the cumulative amount of water that has flowed into a water storage facility such as a dam per day. The temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and snow cover are data provided by, for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private weather company. The inflow is a measured value measured at the water storage facility. The inflow amount may be, for example, a measurement value of a river flow rate provided by a local government that manages the river. The amount of snowmelt may be measured by the Japan Meteorological Agency, a private weather company, a surveying company, or the like, or a value calculated by a model described later may be recorded as an actual value.

The model storage unit 151 stores various statistical models based on the meteorological inflow history information. The parameter storage unit 152 stores parameters such as regression coefficients and constants applied to the models stored in the model storage unit 151. Is memorized. The model storage unit 151 includes a precipitation statistical model (hereinafter referred to as precipitation model 1), a snowfall statistical model (hereinafter referred to as snowfall model 2), and a snowfall statistical model (hereinafter referred to as snowfall model). 3), a statistical model of snowmelt (hereinafter referred to as snowmelt model 4), and a statistical model (hereinafter referred to as inflow model 5) relating to the increase in inflow from the previous day. In the parameter storage unit 152, the temperature at which the rain changes to snow (hereinafter referred to as snow temperature) δ, the equilibrium inflow amount μ ₁ , the temperature μ _{2 at which} snow melting begins, and the regression coefficients α _{1 to} α ₃ , β ₁ , β ₂ are stored. It is stored in the parameter storage unit 152. It is assumed that the equilibrium inflow amount μ ₁ and the temperature μ _{2 at} which snow melting starts are stored in the parameter storage unit 152 in advance as predetermined constants.

In the following description, the temperature at the date t, rainfall, snowfall, snowfall, snowmelt and inflow _{respectively,} and _{T t, P t, S t} , D t, M t , and _{F t.} Let ΔFt be the increase in the inflow from the previous day. The precipitation when the temperature Tt is higher than δ is P1 _t , and the precipitation when the temperature T _t is δ or less is P2 _t .

Precipitation Model 1, precipitation P _t is, the boundary of snow temperature [delta], is a model that indicates that the P1 _t or P2 _t, is expressed by the following equation.

The snowfall model 2 is a regression model in which the precipitation P2t when the temperature T _t is equal to or less than δ is an explanatory variable and the snowfall St is an objective variable, and is represented by the following equation.

Snowfall model 3, snow accumulation D _t is a model showing the relationship of addition of the day of snowfall S _t in snowfall D _t-1 of the previous day, matches therefrom minus snowmelt M _t Yes, it is expressed by the following formula.

融雪量モデル４において、気温Ｔ_ｔがμ_２よりも低ければ第１項は０になり、前日までの積雪量Ｄ_ｔ−１が０であれば融雪量Ｍ_ｔは０になる。 The snow melting amount model 4 is a regression model in which a value obtained by subtracting the temperature μ _{2 at} which the snow melting starts from the temperature T _t is multiplied by the snow accumulation amount D _t , P1 _t is an explanatory variable, and the snow melting amount M _t is an objective variable. And is represented by the following equation.

In the snowmelt amount model 4, the first term is 0 if the temperature T _t is lower than μ ₂ , and the snowmelt amount M _t is 0 if the snow accumulation amount D _t−1 up to the previous day is 0.

Inflow model 5, a value obtained by subtracting the inflow F _t-1 of the previous day from equilibrium inflow mu _1, and precipitation P1 _t where temperature T _t of the day is higher than [delta], and the day of snowmelt M _t Is an regression variable, and an inflow increase ΔF _t is a target variable, which is expressed by the following equation.

The snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 estimates the snowfall temperature δ based on the precipitation model 1 and the weather inflow result information, and registers the estimated snowfall temperature δ in the parameter storage unit 152. Specifically, the snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 acquires the weather inflow actual result information with a snowfall larger than 0 from the weather and inflow actual result database 153, and based on the acquired weather inflow actual result information, the model snowfall = a X Regression coefficients a and b are estimated by regression analysis of x temperature + b x precipitation. Next, the snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 “a × temperature of meteorological inflow result information + b × precipitation amount of meteorological inflow result information” when the temperature is δ or less, and “0” when the temperature is higher than δ. ”Is calculated as the estimated snowfall amount, and δ is calculated such that the value obtained by squaring the difference between the estimated snowfall amount and the snowfall amount of the meteorological inflow result information is squared. The snowfall temperature estimation unit 111, for example, for δ in which the temperature in a predetermined range is increased for each predetermined step, if each meteorological inflow result information is higher than δ, the value obtained by multiplying the temperature by the regression coefficient a and the regression The sum of the coefficient b multiplied by the precipitation amount is calculated as the estimated snowfall amount, and the value obtained by squaring the difference between the estimated snowfall amount and the snowfall amount of the actual inflow information is calculated as the square of the error. Then, the one with the smallest error square can be determined as δ. A general statistical method can be used for the process of determining δ so that the square of the error is minimized. The snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 registers δ determined as described above in the parameter storage unit 152. The snow melting temperature δ is determined as described above.

Moreover, the snowfall temperature estimation part 111 reads the meteorological inflow result information corresponding to the date t from the meteorological and inflow result database 153 for each date t, and the precipitation and temperature of the read weather inflow result information, P2 _t is calculated by applying the estimated snowfall temperature δ to the precipitation model 1. The snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 performs regression analysis based on the meteorological inflow information, P2 _t , and the snowfall model 2 to estimate the regression variable γ. The snowfall temperature estimation unit 111 registers the estimated regression variable γ in the parameter storage unit 152.

を回帰分析して、回帰係数α_２及びα_３を推計する。融雪量モデル推計部１１２は、推計した回帰係数α_２及びα_３をパラメタ記憶部１５２に登録する。 The snow melting amount model estimation unit 112 is an equation in which the snow accumulation amount model 3 is substituted for the snow melting amount model 4.

And regression coefficients α ₂ and α ₃ are estimated. The snowmelt amount model estimation unit 112 registers the estimated regression coefficients α ₂ and α ₃ in the parameter storage unit 152.

The inflow amount model estimation unit 113 estimates the regression coefficients α ₁ , β ₁ , and β ₂ based on the inflow amount model 5 and the weather inflow actual amount information. Specifically, for each date t, the inflow model estimation unit 113 calculates P1 _t based on the precipitation in the meteorological inflow performance information corresponding to the precipitation models 1 and δ and the date t, and each date t The inflow model 5 is subjected to regression analysis by using the actual inflow information of the weather and the corresponding P1 _t , and the regression coefficients α ₁ , β ₁ , and β ₂ are estimated. When there is no snowmelt amount in the actual inflow information, the inflow amount model is calculated using M _t calculated using the snowmelt model 4 using the snow cover amount on the date t-1 and other weather information on the date t. It is also possible to estimate regression coefficients α ₁ , β ₁ , and β ₂ by regression analysis of 5. The inflow model estimation unit 113 registers the estimated regression coefficients α ₁ , β ₁ , and β ₂ in the parameter storage unit 152.

  The predicted temperature acquisition unit 114 acquires a predicted temperature value (hereinafter referred to as a predicted temperature). For example, the predicted temperature acquisition unit 114 may receive an input of the predicted temperature from the user, or may access the computer of the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private weather company to acquire the predicted temperature. Moreover, you may make it the estimated temperature acquisition part 114 estimate temperature based on weather inflow amount performance information. In this case, for example, a statistical model used for general temperature prediction is stored in the model storage unit 151, and the predicted temperature acquisition unit 114 performs a regression analysis based on the statistical model and the weather inflow result information. The estimated temperature can be calculated by applying the estimated parameter and the meteorological inflow history information to the statistical model.

  The predicted precipitation acquisition unit 115 acquires a predicted value of precipitation (hereinafter referred to as predicted precipitation). For example, the predicted precipitation acquisition unit 115 may receive an input of predicted precipitation from a user, or may access a computer of the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private weather company to acquire the predicted precipitation. Further, the predicted precipitation amount acquiring unit 115 may predict the precipitation amount based on the weather inflow result information, similarly to the predicted temperature acquiring unit 114.

  The predicted snowmelt amount acquisition unit 116 acquires a predicted value of snowmelt amount (hereinafter referred to as a predicted snowmelt amount). In the present embodiment, as will be described later, the predicted snowmelt amount acquisition unit 116 calculates the snowmelt amount based on the snowmelt amount model 4. For example, the predicted snowmelt amount may be received from the user. The predicted snowmelt amount may be acquired by accessing a computer of the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private weather company. Further, the predicted snow melting amount acquisition unit 116 may store a history of actual values of snow melting amount and perform prediction based on the actual values.

  The inflow prediction unit 117 includes the predicted temperature acquired by the predicted temperature acquisition unit 114, the predicted precipitation acquired by the predicted precipitation acquisition unit 115, the parameters estimated by the snowfall temperature estimation unit 111, the weather inflow result information, and the inflow A predicted value of the inflow amount (hereinafter referred to as a predicted inflow amount) is calculated using the model 5.

The inflow prediction unit 117 reads δ from the parameter storage unit 152, δ in the precipitation model 1, the predicted temperature T _t acquired by the predicted temperature acquisition unit 114, and the predicted precipitation P acquired by the predicted precipitation acquisition unit 115. P1 _t is calculated by applying _t . That is, P1 _t = P _t if the predicted temperature T _t is greater than δ, and P1 _t = 0 if T _t is less than or equal to δ.
The inflow amount prediction unit 117 reads α _{1 to} α ₃ , β ₁ , β ₂ , μ ₁ , and μ ₂ from the parameter storage unit 152, and the weather corresponding to the previous day t−1 from the meteorological and inflow amount result database 153. Read inflow volume result information. The inflow amount predicting unit 117 sets the snow amount of the read weather inflow amount result information as D _t−1 and the read out amount of the weather inflow amount result information as F _t−1 .
The predicted snow melting amount acquisition unit 116 substitutes α ₂ , T _t , μ ₂ , D _t−1 , α ₃ , and P1 _t into the snow melting amount model 4 to calculate a predicted value M _t of the snow melting amount.
The inflow amount prediction unit 117 substitutes α ₁ , μ ₁ , F _t−1 , β ₁ , P1 _t , β ₂ , and M _t into the inflow amount model 5 to calculate a predicted value ΔF _t of the inflow increase amount. , F _t−1 is added with ΔF _t to calculate the predicted inflow amount F _t .

  As described above, according to the inflow amount prediction system 100 of the present embodiment, the inflow amount is predicted in consideration of the precipitation amount and the snowmelt amount based on the predicted temperature, the predicted precipitation amount, and the weather inflow actual result information. It can be carried out. Even when there is no precipitation, the amount of inflow increases due to melting of snow, so that the accuracy of prediction can be improved by predicting the amount of inflow taking into account the amount of snow melting.

  Moreover, according to the inflow amount prediction system 100 of the present embodiment, the snowmelt amount can be calculated from the precipitation amount and the temperature. Prediction of precipitation and temperature has various methods as weather forecasting methods and is easily available. Therefore, even if it is difficult to predict the amount of snowmelt, it is possible to easily predict the inflow amount in consideration of the amount of snowmelt by predicting the amount of snowmelt based on the easily obtained precipitation and temperature predicted values. can do.

  Also, in the inflow model 5 described above, the first term is the difference between the balanced inflow and the inflow, and the balanced inflow is taken into account. Compared to the case where the inflow is simply used as an explanatory variable, More accurate inflow prediction can be performed.

== Optimal reservoir level calculation system 200 ==
The optimum water storage level calculation system 200 is based on constraints such as the maximum / minimum value of the water level in the water storage facility and the maximum / minimum value of the amount of water used for hydroelectric power generation (hereinafter referred to as water intake, Q). The water level is simulated using the predicted value of the inflow amount predicted by the prediction system 100, and the plan for the water level that maximizes the amount of power sales is calculated.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the optimum water storage level calculation system 200. As shown in the figure, the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 includes a CPU 201, a memory 202, a storage device 203, a communication interface 204, an input device 205, and an output device 206. The storage device 203 stores various data and programs, for example, a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a CD-ROM drive, and the like. The CPU 201 implements various functions by reading a program stored in the storage device 203 into the memory 202 and executing it. The communication interface 204 is an interface for connecting to the communication network 300. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, and a communication for performing wireless communication Such as a vessel. The input device 205 is a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, microphone, or the like that accepts data input. The output device 206 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a software configuration of the optimum water storage level calculation system 200. As shown in the figure, the optimum water level calculation system 200 includes a specification input unit 211, a stored water amount set value input unit 212, a predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 213, an operational water level planning unit 214, a specification storage unit 251, and a model storage. A unit 252, a power price database 253, and an operational water level database 254. In addition, as for the specification input part 211, the stored water amount setting value input part 212, the predicted inflow amount acquisition part 213, and the operation water level plan part 214, CPU201 with which the optimal water level calculation system 200 is provided is memorize | stored in the memory | storage device 203. This is realized by reading the program into the memory 202 and executing it. The specification storage unit 251, the model storage unit 252, the power price database 253, and the operation water level database 254 are realized as storage areas provided by the memory 202 and the storage device 203 provided in the optimum water storage level calculation system 200. The specification storage unit 251, the model storage unit 252, the power price database 253, and the operation water level database 254 are managed by a database server different from the optimum water level calculation system 200, and the optimum water level calculation system 200 is the database server. You may make it access.

  The specification storage unit 251 stores information (hereinafter referred to as specification information) including setting values of various specifications such as a water storage facility, a river, and a power generation facility. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the specification information stored in the specification storage unit 251. As shown in the figure, the specification information includes a specification name, a unit, and a setting value.

  The specification input unit 211 receives input of specification information and registers the received specification information in the specification storage unit 251. The specification input unit 211 may receive input of each item of specification information from the input device 205 such as a keyboard and a mouse, for example, or access the specification information by accessing the host computer of the power company, for example. You may make it acquire.

In addition, the specification input unit 211 preliminarily includes the maximum value of the water level (maximum operating water level; hereinafter referred to as H _max . The unit is m) and the minimum value of the water level (minimum) Operational water level; hereinafter referred to as H _min . The unit is m.) The specification information including the highest operational water level received and the specification information including the lowest operational water level are created and specifications are created. Registered in the storage unit 251, accepts an input of a maintenance flow rate (hereinafter referred to as S0. The unit is m ³ / s) as specifications relating to the river, and creates specification information including the received maintenance flow rate Then, the maximum amount of water (maximum water intake; hereinafter referred to as Q _max .) Which is registered in the specification storage unit 251 and can be given to the generator as the specifications relating to the power generation equipment. The unit is m ³ / s. ), The amount of water that does not operate the generator (minimum water intake; below) , Referred to as _{Q min} unit is ^m 3 / s is generally _{Q min} is "0 (zero)"), the height to discharge water to generate electricity (water discharge position;... _Hereinafter referred to as _{H out} Unit is m.), Head loss (hereinafter referred to as H _los , unit is m), minimum water intake required for operating the generator (operating limit water intake; hereinafter, Q0) _The unit m ³ / s is expressed as _min .), the step of changing the amount of stored water in the calculation of the simulation described later (calculation step; the unit is m ³ / s · day), and the generator described later Accepting the input of the coefficient for the maximum water intake for calculating the threshold for efficiency improvement (efficiency operation lower limit coefficient; hereinafter referred to as “m”), specification information including the received maximum water intake, Specification information including minimum water intake, discharge level Specification information including a loss head, specification information including an operation limit water intake, specification information including a calculation step, specification information including an efficiency operation lower limit coefficient m, and a specification storage unit 251 Is registered. In the present embodiment, efficient operation lower limit coefficient m is, m × _{Q max} becomes _{Q0 min} or more, and, m × _{Q max} is assumed that the value that satisfies the constraint that the above _{Q min} is input. The specification input unit 211 may determine the efficiency operation lower limit coefficient m so as to satisfy this restriction, and register the specification information including the determined value in the specification storage unit 251.

  The power price database 253 stores the power price for each date. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power price database 253. As shown in the figure, the power price database 253 stores a power price (unit: yen / kWh) in association with the date. In this embodiment, it is assumed that the power price can be changed for each date, and the power price for each day is input in advance from the user and registered in the power price database 253.

  The water storage amount set value input unit 212 is a period that is a target of the operation plan (hereinafter referred to as an operation period. In this embodiment, the length of the operation period is 6 hours × 28 periods (7 days)) and operation. Estimated value of the amount of water stored at the beginning of the first unit period (0 o'clock) (hereinafter referred to as the initial amount of stored water) and the end of the last unit period (24 o'clock, that is, the start of the 29th period )) With the target value of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the final target water storage amount). In addition, the water storage amount setting value input unit 212 may acquire, for example, the current water storage amount of the water storage facility and set it as the initial water storage amount. In addition, the water storage amount setting value input unit 212 may predict either the initial water storage amount or the final target water storage amount from the past water level.

  The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 213 accesses the inflow amount prediction system 100 and acquires the predicted value of the inflow amount R for each day in the operation period predicted by the inflow amount prediction system 100. Note that the predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 213 may accept input of a predicted value of the inflow amount from the input device 205 such as a keyboard or a mouse.

The operational water level planning unit 214 (corresponding to the optimum water storage amount determining unit of the present invention) calculates the optimum water level (hereinafter referred to as the operational water level, referred to as H) in each unit period during the operation period by simulation. The calculated operation water level for each unit period is output to the output device and registered in the operation water level database 254. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the operational water level database 254. As shown in the figure, the operational water level database 254 stores the operational water level H _t , the water storage amount V _t , and the water intake amount Q _t in association with each unit period (time zone) t.

  The statistical model used by the operational water level planning unit 214 for the simulation is stored in the model storage unit 252. The model storage unit 252 stores the following models 1 to 11.

Model 1 is for calculating the operational water level H based on the water storage amount V (water level calculation model), and is represented by the following equation. Note that a is a constant specific to the water storage facility.

Model 2 is for calculating the upper limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the upper limit water storage amount and expressed as V _max ) based on the maximum operational water level H _max and is represented by the following equation.

The model 3 is for calculating the lower limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the lower limit water storage amount and expressed as V _min ) based on the minimum operating water level _Hmin , and is represented by the following equation.

Model 4 is based on the amount of stored water from 0:00 to 24:00 on the first day (that is, 0:00 on the next day). , And expressed as ΔV), and is expressed by the following equation, where V _t is the amount of water stored at the start of a certain unit period t.

The model 5 is for calculating a water amount (R0) obtained by subtracting the maintenance flow rate and the stored water amount difference from the inflow amount, and is represented by the following equation.

すなわち、Ｒ０が、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ以上であり、かつ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ以下である場合には、Ｒ０が取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合には最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎが取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最大取水量よりも大きい場合には最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘが取水量Ｑとなる。 The model 6 is for determining the water intake amount Q based on the minimum water intake amount Q _min , the maximum water intake amount Q _max , and R0 (water intake amount calculation model), and is expressed by the following equation.

That, R0 is, and the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} or more, and equal to or less than the maximum intake amount _{Q max} is, R0 is intake amount Q, and the minimum intake if R0 is smaller than the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} The amount Q _min becomes the water intake amount Q, and when R0 is larger than the maximum water intake amount, the maximum water intake amount Q _max becomes the water intake amount Q.

The model 7 is for calculating the amount of water discharged in the water storage facility within the unit period (hereinafter referred to as an invalid discharge amount, expressed as S) based on R0 and the water intake amount Q. It is represented by

Model 8, operating water level at the end of the unit period, based on the water discharge position H _out and losses drop H _los, is intended to calculate the effective head hn, the operational level at the beginning of the unit time period t H _t And a predetermined constant for converting the water level to the height above sea level is represented by the following equation.

The model 9 is for calculating the generated power Pn generated in one unit period based on the water intake amount Q and the effective head hn, and the coefficient for the conversion efficiency of power generation is c and the gravitational acceleration is g. It is expressed by the formula.

The model 10 is for calculating the generated power amount En generated in one unit period based on the generated power Pn (power amount calculation model), and is represented by the following equation.

The model 11 is for calculating the amount of power sold based on the amount of generated power En in a certain unit period and the power price corresponding to the date to which the unit period belongs, and is represented by the following equation.

The operational water level planning unit 214 sets the initial water storage amount received by the water storage amount setting value input unit 212 as the water storage amount V ₁ of the first unit period of the operation period, and sets the final target water storage amount received by the water storage amount setting value input unit 212. Step of calculating the storage amount V _t at the start of the unit period between V _min and V _max for each unit period t (t = 2 to 28) as the storage amount V ₂₉ of the last unit period (the 29th period) each varied to simulate, En determines the V _t to maximize. The operational water level planning unit 214 uses dynamic programming in this simulation. By using dynamic programming, it can be quickly calculated optimal combination of V _t.

== Screen example ==
FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a screen 60 used for the simulation of the operational water level.
The operational water level planning unit 214 reads each item information from the item storage unit 251. Further, the operational water level planning unit 214 displays the read maintenance flow rate (S0) in the display column 6007 and displays the read calculation step in the display column 6002. The operation water level planning unit 214 uses the above-described model 2 and model 3 to calculate the upper limit water storage amount V _max and the lower limit water storage amount V _min from the maximum operation water level (H _max ) and the minimum operation water level (H _min ) of the specification information. Is calculated.

  The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 213 accesses the inflow amount prediction system 100, acquires the predicted value of the inflow amount R for each day in the operation period predicted by the inflow amount prediction system 100, and displays the acquired R Displayed in a column 6006.

The screen 60 includes a date / time zone input field 6001, an initial water storage amount input field 6005, and a final target water storage amount input field 6014. When the operation period, the initial water storage amount and the final target water storage amount are input to the input fields 6001, 6005 and 6014 and the button 6013 is pressed, the water storage amount setting value input unit 212 is input to the input fields 6001, 6005 and 6014. The operation water level planning unit 214 receives the operation period, the initial water storage amount, and the final target water storage amount, and simulates the water storage amount V _t for each unit period t in the operation period. Operation level planning unit 214 performs a simulation of reservoir capacity V _t, for example, as follows. In the example of FIG. 11, it is assumed that the coefficient a = 30000 inherent to the water storage facility is a constant b = 500 for converting the water level to the height above sea level.

Operation level planning unit 214, the initial water amount inputted in the input field 6005 and water volume V ₁ of the first unit period, water volume V of the 29 unit period a final purpose water amount inputted in the input field 6014 ₂₉ The stored water amount V ₁ is set to the stored water amount V _t (t = 2 to 28) from the second unit period to the 28th unit period, and the stored water amount V _t is displayed in the display field 6004. Further, the operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the operational water level H _t by applying the stored water amount V _t for each unit period t to the model 1 and displays the calculated operational water level H _t in the display field 6003. The operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the water storage amount difference ΔV _t for each unit period t by applying V _t and V _{t + 1} to the model 4 for the _first to 28th unit periods t. Operation level planning unit 214, the predicted value R of the inflow applies maintain flow S0, and the water storage amount difference [Delta] V _t in the model 5 calculates R0, the water intake Q _t corresponding to R0 was determined by the model 6 , to display the determined amount of water intake _{Q t} to display column 6009. Operation level planning unit 214 applies the R0 and water intake _{Q t} in the model 7 calculates an invalid discharge amount _{S t,} and displays the calculated _{S t} to the display field 6008.

The operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the effective head hn for each of the first to 28th unit periods t by applying the calculated operating water level H _{t + 1} , the water discharge level H _out and the loss head H _los to the model 8. Operation level planning unit 214 applies water intake _{Q t,} the effective head hn model 9, and displays on the display section 6010 to calculate the generated power Pn _t, by applying the calculated Pn _t model 10 It calculates power generation amount En _t, and displays the calculated En _t to display column 6011.

Operation level planning unit 214 reads the electricity price corresponding to the date of each unit period _t belongs in operation period after electricity price database 253, conductive amount sold by applying the En _t and read power price model 11 And the calculated power sale amount is displayed in the display field 6012. The operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the total amount of power sales amount En _t (ΣEn _t ; hereinafter referred to as total power sales amount) and displays it in the display column 6019.

The operational water level planning unit 214 performs simulation by changing the water storage amount V _t (t = 2 to 28) from V _min to V _max by each calculation step and repeating the above processing, and the total power sales during the operation period. forehead determined as the optimum water planning a combination of water quantity V _t with the maximum. The operational water level planning unit 214 can determine the optimal water storage amount efficiently by determining the optimal water storage amount plan by the dynamic programming method. The operational water level planning unit 214 associates the determined intake water amount V _t with the corresponding intake water amount Q _t and registers it in the operational water level database 254, and displays the display fields 6003 to correspond to the determined optimal water storage amount plan. 6012 is displayed.

The operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the total amount of water intake Q _t (ΣQ _t ; hereinafter referred to as total water intake), and displays the calculated total water intake in the display column 6017. The operational water level planning unit 214 calculates the amount of electric power sold per unit water intake (hereinafter referred to as electric water ratio) by dividing the total water intake by the total amount of electric power sold, and displays the calculated electric water ratio in the display column 6016. indicate.

  As described above, according to the water level operation support system of the present embodiment, it is possible to present an operation water level that maximizes the amount of power sold according to the initial water storage amount and the final target water storage amount. Therefore, the operator of the water storage facility can perform hydropower generation more efficiently and effectively by operating the water level of the water storage facility with reference to the presentation from the water level operation support system.

== Efficient operation of generators ==
In the above simulation, since the stored water amount V is varied in a predetermined step, the stored water amount V becomes a discrete value, and the intake water amount Q determined by the model 4-6 also becomes a discrete value corresponding to the stored water amount step. Here, it is known that most of the generators used for hydroelectric power generation have the highest power generation efficiency when the maximum water intake amount _Qmax is given. The maximum water intake Q _max is not necessarily reached. Therefore, in the water level operation support system of the present embodiment, for the unit period t in which the water intake amount Q _t is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold, the water intake amount Q _t is set as the maximum water intake amount Q _max, and for the unit period t less than that, By setting the water intake amount _Qt to “0 (zero)”, the generator may be operated with high efficiency.

FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining the flow of processing for improving the efficiency of the generator.
The operational water level planning unit 214 receives the designation of the unit period t _{st that} is the start time of the error removal process and the unit period t _{end that} is the end time (S501). For example, the operational water level planning unit 214 may set the first value of the input field 6001 of the screen 60 to t _st and the last value to t _end . The operational water level planning unit 214 reads the efficiency operation lower limit coefficient m and the maximum water intake amount _Qmax from the specification storage unit 251 and multiplies them to calculate the lower limit value (S502). The operational water level planning unit 214 sets the start time t _st to t (S503). The operational water level planning unit 214 terminates the process when t exceeds the end point t _end (S504: YES), and if not (S504: NO), the water intake amount Q _t in the unit period _t is the above lower limit. It is determined whether or not the value is greater than or equal to the value (S505).

If water intake _{Q t} is less than the above lower limit (S505: YES), operation level planning unit 214, a difference between the water amount _{Q t} preparative maximum water intake _{Q max} and X (S506), the intake amount _{Q t} updating operational level database 254 to set the maximum water intake _{Q max} (S507).

If water withdrawal _{Q t} is less than the lower limit (S505: NO), if the operation limit water intake _{Q0 min} is the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} or more (S508: YES), operation level planning unit 214, water intake _{Q t} multiplied by minus 1 and X (S509), updates the operating water level database 254 to set the 0 (zero) in water intake _{Q t} to (S510). If the operating limit water intake Q0 _min is less than the minimum water intake Q _min (S508: NO), the operation water level planning unit 214 sets the difference between the minimum water intake Q _min and the water intake Q _t to X (S511), The operational water level database 254 is updated so as to set the minimum water intake amount Q _min to the amount Q _t (S512).

Next, the operational water level planning unit 214 sets t to t0 (S513), subtracts the value obtained by multiplying X by the coefficient k from the water storage amount V _{t + 1} in the next unit period t + 1, and subtracts the kX. _The water level H _t is calculated by applying _{t + 1} to the water level calculation model 1, and the operational water level database 254 is updated (S514). Operation level planning unit 214, while t is less than _{t end} (S515: NO), increments the t (S516), and repeats the processing in step S514. The coefficient k is a coefficient for converting the unit of water intake (m ³ / s) to the unit of water storage (m ³ ). When t exceeds t _end (S515: YES), the operational water level planning unit 214 adds 1 to t0 and sets it to t (S517), and repeats the processing from step S504.

As described above, for the unit period t in which the water intake amount Q _t is greater than or _equal to m × Q _max , the water intake amount Q _t is the maximum water intake amount Q _max and the unit time period in which the water intake amount Q _t is less than m × Q _max. for _{t, Q0 min} is equal to or greater than _{Q min} water intake _{Q t} to 0 (zero), it is possible to adjust the intake amount _{Q t} otherwise water intake _{Q t} a minimum intake quantity _{Q min.} Further, the water storage amount V _t for each unit period t is also adjusted in accordance with the adjustment of the water intake amount Q _t .

FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a screen 62 displayed after the efficiency improvement process of FIG. 12 is performed. In the screen 62, the water intake 6015 that was less than the operation limit water intake in FIG. 11 is set to “0”, which is the minimum water intake Q _min . is set to _{Q max × m = 9.6 × 0.6} = 5.76) less than a which was water intake 6212 is also the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} is 8 example. Furthermore, the maximum water intake Q _max (9.6 in the example of FIG. 8) is also set for the water intake 6211 that is equal to or greater than the lower limit.

In this way, the water intake Q _t, if the lower limit value (Q value multiplied by the efficient operation lower coefficient m to _max) or the maximum intake quantity Q _max, the minimum intake quantity Q _{min (e.g.} if less “0”). Accordingly, the water intake amount _Qt is set to either the maximum water intake amount _Qmax or the minimum water intake amount _Qmin . As mentioned above, generators are often designed to generate electricity most efficiently when given maximum water intake. Therefore, the efficiency of the generator can be improved by the above efficiency improvement process.

  In the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 of the present embodiment, the combination of the water storage amounts V is determined so that the amount of power sales is maximized. However, the combination that maximizes the amount of generated power En is determined. You may do it. In this case, more efficient power generation can be performed regardless of price fluctuations.

  Further, the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 may perform simulation by providing an upper limit of the invalid discharge flow rate S. In this case, the operational water level planning unit 214 receives the input of the upper limit value from the user, and determines the one with the largest amount of power sale out of the combinations of the water storage amounts V whose invalid discharge flow rate S does not exceed the upper limit value. To.

  Moreover, the optimal water storage level calculation system 200 may perform a simulation by providing a lower limit of the minimum operation output. In this case, the operational water level planning unit 214 receives the input of the lower limit value from the user, and determines the one with the largest amount of power sale out of the combinations of the stored water amounts V whose operation output does not fall below the lower limit value. . In actual power plant operation, power generation efficiency is often increased by not operating in an output region where efficiency is significantly reduced, and simulation that is more suitable for the actual situation is possible.

  Moreover, in the inflow amount prediction system 100 of the present embodiment, the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility such as a dam is predicted from the river. However, the inflow amount prediction system 100 can be easily applied to a system that predicts the amount of water flowing through the river. Can do. In this case, the forecast value and the actual value of the temperature and precipitation in the upstream area of the river shall be acquired and recorded.

Further, the inflow prediction system 100 of the present embodiment, the temperature mu ₂ to balance inflow mu ₁ and snow melting begins, was assumed to be stored in advance in the parameter storage unit 152 is not limited to this, in the past A good value may be estimated based on the weather inflow history information. In addition, for each regression model of the present embodiment, when there is a series correlation in the error term, the snow temperature estimation unit 111 may estimate the parameters by the Prais-Winstein transformation or the Cochrane ocut method. In this case, the inflow amount model 5 may use the inflow amount F _t−n before the predetermined period (n period) when the series correlation disappears instead of the inflow amount F _{t−1 of the} previous period as an explanatory variable. .

  In the optimum reservoir level calculation system 200 of the present embodiment, the inflow amount R is acquired from the inflow amount prediction system 100. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and for example, an input of the inflow amount R is received from the user. Also good. Alternatively, the past actual value of the inflow amount may be stored in a database, and the past actual value may be read as R and simulated.

  Further, in the optimum storage level calculation system 200 of the present embodiment, the power price is assumed to be stored in advance in the power price database 253. For example, the power price (JEPX price) at the Japan Wholesale Power Exchange is automatically set. You may make it acquire. In this case, the electric power price database 253 may be omitted, and the JEPX price may be acquired each time the operational water level planning unit 214 performs the simulation.

  Although the present embodiment has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

  For example, in the present embodiment, the inflow prediction system 100 and the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 are different computers, but may be realized by a single computer. In addition, at least one of the inflow amount prediction system 100 and the optimum water storage level calculation system 200 can be realized by a plurality of computers.

100 Inflow prediction system 101 CPU
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 102 Memory 103 Memory | storage device 104 Communication interface 105 Input device 106 Output device 111 Snowfall temperature estimation part 112 Snowmelt amount model estimation part 113 Inflow amount model estimation part 114 Predicted temperature acquisition part 115 Predicted precipitation amount acquisition part 116 Predicted snowmelt amount acquisition part 117 Inflow Amount prediction unit 151 Model storage unit 152 Parameter storage unit 153 Weather and inflow result database 200 Optimal reservoir level calculation system 201 CPU
202 Memory 203 Storage Device 204 Communication Interface 205 Input Device 206 Output Device 211 Specification Input Unit 212 Reservoir Amount Setting Value Input Unit 213 Predicted Inflow Acquisition Unit 214 Operation Water Level Planning Unit 251 Specification Storage Unit 252 Model Storage Unit 253 Power Price Database 254 Operational Water Level Database 300 Communication Network

Claims (8)

A system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation,
A predicted inflow amount obtaining unit for obtaining a predicted value of the inflow amount of water into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period;
In order to calculate a water intake amount that is an amount of water used for the hydroelectric power generation based on a water storage amount difference that is a difference in water storage amount in the water storage facility from a start time to an end time of the unit period and the inflow amount. A model storage unit for storing a water amount calculation model, and a power amount calculation model for calculating a power amount generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water storage amount and the water intake amount;
For each unit period within the predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the predicted value of the inflow amount in the unit period are applied to the water intake amount calculation model. The amount of water intake is calculated, the changed amount of stored water and the calculated amount of water intake are applied to the power amount calculation model to calculate the amount of power, and the evaluation value corresponding to the amount of power is maximized. An optimal water storage amount determination unit that determines a combination of the above water storage amounts as an optimal water storage amount plan,
A water storage plan storage unit that stores the unit period, the water storage amount included in the optimal water storage plan, and the water intake amount in association with each other;
For each of the unit periods in the water storage plan storage unit, when the intake amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold , the predetermined maximum value that is the intake amount that maximizes the power generation efficiency of the hydroelectric power generation is determined. calculating a reduced value of the water quantity, the water intake for the unit period to update the reservoir capacity plan storage unit so that the maximum value, the water planning storage corresponding to a unit period after the unit period A water storage amount adjustment unit that updates the water storage amount plan storage unit by subtracting the decrease value from each water storage amount of the unit;
A water storage facility operation support system characterized by comprising: The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
The water storage amount adjustment unit further calculates, for each of the unit periods in the water storage amount plan storage unit, an increase value of the water storage amount according to a predetermined minimum value when the water intake amount is less than the threshold value. and, wherein the water intake for the unit period to update the reservoir capacity plan storage unit so that the minimum value, the respective water volume of the reservoir capacity planning storage unit corresponding to the unit period after the unit period Updating the water storage plan storage unit by adding the increase value;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to any one of claims 1 and 2,
The optimum water storage amount determination unit determines the optimum water storage amount plan using the power amount as the evaluation value;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to any one of claims 1 and 2,
A power price acquisition unit that acquires a price per unit power in each unit period,
The optimum water storage amount determination unit reads the price corresponding to the unit period from the power price acquisition unit, and multiplies the read price by the power amount to calculate the evaluation value;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to any one of claims 1 and 2,
A water storage amount set value storage unit for storing an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the water storage amount;
The optimum water storage amount determination unit calculates the amount of power for each unit period by changing the water storage amount at the start of the unit period from the lower limit value to the upper limit value for each predetermined step;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 5,
The optimum water storage amount determination unit determines the optimum water storage amount combination by dynamic programming;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by A method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation,
Computer
Obtain a predicted value of the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period,
In order to calculate a water intake amount that is an amount of water used for the hydroelectric power generation based on a water storage amount difference that is a difference in water storage amount in the water storage facility from a start time to an end time of the unit period and the inflow amount. A water intake amount calculation model, and an electric energy calculation model for calculating the amount of electric power generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the stored water amount and the intake water amount in a memory,
For each unit period within the predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the predicted value of the inflow amount in the unit period are applied to the water intake amount calculation model. The amount of water intake is calculated, the changed amount of stored water and the calculated amount of water intake are applied to the power amount calculation model to calculate the amount of power, and the evaluation value corresponding to the amount of power is maximized. The above-mentioned combination of water storage amount is determined as an optimal water storage amount plan,
The unit period, the water storage amount included in the optimal water storage amount plan, and the water intake amount are associated with each other and stored in the memory,
For each of the unit period, when the intake amount is above a predetermined threshold value, it calculates a reduction value of the water amount corresponding to the predetermined maximum value is a water intake to maximize the power generation efficiency of the hydroelectric and, updating the memorized water intake as the water intake for the unit period is the maximum value, the by subtracting the reduction value from the respective storage volume corresponding to the unit period after the said unit period Updating stored water volume ,
Water storage facility operation support method characterized by A program that supports the operation of water storage facilities for hydropower generation,
On the computer,
Obtain a predicted value of the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility in each unit period within a predetermined period,
In order to calculate a water intake amount that is an amount of water used for the hydroelectric power generation based on a water storage amount difference that is a difference in water storage amount in the water storage facility from a start time to an end time of the unit period and the inflow amount. Storing in a memory a water intake amount calculation model, and a power amount calculation model for calculating the amount of power generated by the hydropower generation in the unit period based on the water storage amount and the water intake amount;
For each unit period within the predetermined period, the water storage amount at the start of the unit period is changed, and the changed water storage amount and the predicted value of the inflow amount in the unit period are applied to the water intake amount calculation model. The amount of water intake is calculated, the changed amount of stored water and the calculated amount of water intake are applied to the power amount calculation model to calculate the amount of power, and the evaluation value corresponding to the amount of power is maximized. Determining a combination of the water storage amounts as an optimal water storage plan;
Storing in the memory the unit period, the water storage amount included in the optimum water storage amount plan, and the water intake amount in association with each other;
For each of the unit period, when the intake amount is above a predetermined threshold value, it calculates a reduction value of the water amount corresponding to the predetermined maximum value is a water intake to maximize the power generation efficiency of the hydroelectric and, updating the memorized water intake as the water intake for the unit period is the maximum value, the by subtracting the reduction value from the respective storage volume corresponding to the unit period after the unit period Updating the stored water volume ;
A program for running

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