EP2458178B1 - System zur Diagnose der Turbinenleistung und Verfahren - Google Patents

System zur Diagnose der Turbinenleistung und Verfahren Download PDF

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Publication number
EP2458178B1
EP2458178B1 EP11190153.4A EP11190153A EP2458178B1 EP 2458178 B1 EP2458178 B1 EP 2458178B1 EP 11190153 A EP11190153 A EP 11190153A EP 2458178 B1 EP2458178 B1 EP 2458178B1
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EP
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Prior art keywords
turbine
alarm
bbn
test
root cause
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English (en)
French (fr)
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EP2458178A2 (de
EP2458178A3 (de
EP2458178B2 (de
Inventor
Achalesh Kumar Panley
Subrat Nanda
Maria Cecilia Mazzaro
Atanu Talukdar
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General Electric Co
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General Electric Co
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    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F02—COMBUSTION ENGINES; HOT-GAS OR COMBUSTION-PRODUCT ENGINE PLANTS
    • F02C—GAS-TURBINE PLANTS; AIR INTAKES FOR JET-PROPULSION PLANTS; CONTROLLING FUEL SUPPLY IN AIR-BREATHING JET-PROPULSION PLANTS
    • F02C9/00—Controlling gas-turbine plants; Controlling fuel supply in air- breathing jet-propulsion plants
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N7/00—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models
    • G06N7/01—Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
    • F05D—INDEXING SCHEME FOR ASPECTS RELATING TO NON-POSITIVE-DISPLACEMENT MACHINES OR ENGINES, GAS-TURBINES OR JET-PROPULSION PLANTS
    • F05D2260/00—Function
    • F05D2260/80—Diagnostics
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
    • F05D—INDEXING SCHEME FOR ASPECTS RELATING TO NON-POSITIVE-DISPLACEMENT MACHINES OR ENGINES, GAS-TURBINES OR JET-PROPULSION PLANTS
    • F05D2270/00—Control
    • F05D2270/40—Type of control system
    • F05D2270/44—Type of control system active, predictive, or anticipative
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
    • F05D—INDEXING SCHEME FOR ASPECTS RELATING TO NON-POSITIVE-DISPLACEMENT MACHINES OR ENGINES, GAS-TURBINES OR JET-PROPULSION PLANTS
    • F05D2270/00—Control
    • F05D2270/70—Type of control algorithm
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
    • F05D—INDEXING SCHEME FOR ASPECTS RELATING TO NON-POSITIVE-DISPLACEMENT MACHINES OR ENGINES, GAS-TURBINES OR JET-PROPULSION PLANTS
    • F05D2270/00—Control
    • F05D2270/70—Type of control algorithm
    • F05D2270/71—Type of control algorithm synthesized, i.e. parameter computed by a mathematical model

Definitions

  • the subject matter disclosed herein relates to turbines and, in particular, to monitoring performance and predicting the root causes of changes in the operation of turbines.
  • Electrical power generation typically includes the utilization of one or more turbines. These turbines, like any other mechanical device, may need inspection from time to time to ensure proper operation.
  • One approach has been to have periodic inspections. In some cases, however, it may be determined that particular turbines (or portions thereof) may not need to be inspected as often as others even if they are of the same type. Thus, an inspection may not be necessary for one turbine while it may be for another.
  • DE 10 2008 022459 A1 discloses a method and a device for monitoring a gas turbine.
  • the device includes a receiver for receiving condition values of the gas turbine and an analytical device designed to determine condition information from the condition values of the gas turbine using Bayes' Prediction.
  • US 2008/312783 A1 discloses systems and methods for health monitoring of complex systems.
  • a typical inspection may require that a turbine be shut down during the inspection. In such a case, at least a portion of a power generation plant's production capability may be hampered. Reducing the ability to generate power may have real economic costs associated with it. In addition, the inspection itself costs money. For at least these two reasons, it may be beneficial to perform inspections or maintenance only when and where needed.
  • the invention resides in a turbine performance diagnostic system that creates a performance report for one or more turbines.
  • the system includes an assessment module that receives operating data from at least one turbine and produces a performance report from the operating data.
  • the assessment module of this aspect includes a change detection module configured to determine when at least one parameter has changed beyond an associated threshold and generate an alarm, and a root cause analyzer coupled to the change detection module that predicts a root cause of the alarm utilizing a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN).
  • BBN Bayesian Belief Network
  • the performance report includes an indication of the predicted root cause.
  • the invention resides in a method of determining a root cause of a turbine alarm for at least one turbine.
  • the method includes: determining at a computing device that the turbine alarm exists; determining at the computing device which, if any, other alarm conditions exist when the alarm conditions exist to create an event portion; and predicting the root cause of the event from the event portion by comparing the event portion to a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN).
  • BBN Bayesian Belief Network
  • Embodiments disclosed herein are directed to systems and methods for monitoring turbine performance.
  • key performance parameters of the turbine are tracked and, from this tracking, changes in these parameters can be detected.
  • the changes result in the generation of an alarm or other advisory to a user/operator.
  • the state of some or all of the performance parameters is recorded. This recorded information can be combined across a fleet to generate a fleet level performance degradation tracking scorecard.
  • probabilistic root cause analysis can be performed. In one embodiment, the root cause analysis is based on results of a Bayesian Belief Network.
  • FIG. 1 shows a dataflow diagram of a system 50 according to one embodiment.
  • the system 50 may include one or more turbines 60.
  • the turbine 60 can be any type of type of turbine. Indeed, the turbine 60 could be a gas turbine, a steam turbine or other device that converts a fuel into electricity.
  • the turbine 60 may include a compressor 52 to draw in and compress air; a combustor 54 (or burner) to add fuel to heat the compressed air; and a turbine section 56 to extract power from the hot air flow.
  • the system 50 may also include a controller 62 coupled to the turbine 60.
  • the controller 62 receives information from the turbine 60 and, based on that information, may vary the operation of the turbine 60. Accordingly, the communication between the controller 62 and the turbine 60 may be bidirectional as indicated by communication pathway 63.
  • the controller 62 is coupled to an assessor 64.
  • the assessor 64 receives information from the controller 62 and optionally, additional information 66 from additional information sources (not shown) to produce one or more reports 70.
  • the additional information 66 may include, but is not limited to, on-site monitoring information.
  • the on-site monitoring information is related to the compressor 52.
  • This on-site monitoring information may include, but is not limited to, hours of operation, inlet conditioning, fogger information, part load operation, water wash information, inlet air quality and other sensor information.
  • other types of information could be included in the additional information 66.
  • the assessor 64 may be implemented in hardware, software, or some combination thereof (firmware).
  • the report 70 can include one or more different types of information.
  • the report 70 includes at least one of a fleet level performance scorecard, a unit level performance scorecard, and a root cause report.
  • the processing system 100 may include the assessor 64 ( Fig. 1 ).
  • the system 100 has one or more central processing units (processors) 101a, 101b, 101c, etc. (collectively or generically referred to as processor(s) 101).
  • processors 101 may include a reduced instruction set computer (RISC) microprocessor.
  • RISC reduced instruction set computer
  • processors 101 are coupled to system memory 114 and various other components via a system bus 113.
  • ROM Read only memory
  • BIOS basic input/output system
  • FIG. 2 further depicts an input/output (I/O) adapter 107 and a network adapter 106 coupled to the system bus 113.
  • I/O adapter 107 may be a small computer system interface (SCSI) adapter that communicates with a hard disk 103 and/or tape storage drive 105 or any other similar component.
  • I/O adapter 107, hard disk 103, and tape storage device 105 are collectively referred to herein as mass storage 104.
  • a network adapter 106 interconnects bus 113 with an outside network 116 enabling data processing system 100 to communicate with other such systems.
  • a screen (e.g., a display monitor) 115 can be connected to system bus 113 by display adaptor 112, which may include a graphics adapter to improve the performance of graphics intensive applications and a video controller.
  • adapters 107, 106, and 112 may be connected to one or more I/O busses that are connected to system bus 113 via an intermediate bus bridge (not shown).
  • Suitable I/O buses for connecting peripheral devices such as hard disk controllers, network adapters, and graphics adapters typically include common protocols, such as the Peripheral Components Interface (PCI).
  • PCI Peripheral Components Interface
  • Additional input/output devices are shown as connected to system bus 113 via user interface adapter 108 and display adapter 112.
  • a keyboard 109, mouse 110, and speaker 111 are all interconnected to bus 113 via user interface adapter 108, which may include, for example, an I/O chip integrating multiple device adapters into a single integrated circuit.
  • system 100 can be any suitable computer or computing platform, and may include a terminal, wireless device, information appliance, device, workstation, mini-computer, mainframe computer, personal digital assistant (PDA) or other computing device. It shall be understood that the system 100 may include multiple computing devices linked together by a communication network. For example, there may exist a client-server relationship between two systems and processing may be split between the two.
  • PDA personal digital assistant
  • the system 100 also includes a network interface 106 for communicating over a network 116.
  • the network 116 can be a local-area network (LAN), a metro-area network (MAN), or wide-area network (WAN), such as the Internet or World Wide Web.
  • LAN local-area network
  • MAN metro-area network
  • WAN wide-area network
  • Network 116 Users of the system 100 can connect to the network 116 through any suitable network interface, such as standard telephone lines, digital subscriber line, LAN or WAN links (e.g., T1, T3), broadband connections (Frame Relay, ATM), and wireless connections (e.g., 802.11(a), 802.11(b), 802.11(g)).
  • any suitable network interface such as standard telephone lines, digital subscriber line, LAN or WAN links (e.g., T1, T3), broadband connections (Frame Relay, ATM), and wireless connections (e.g., 802.11(a), 802.11(b), 802.11(g)).
  • the system 100 may include machine-readable instructions stored on machine-readable media (for example, the hard disk 104) to execute one or more methods disclosed herein.
  • the instructions may be referred to as "software" 120.
  • the software 120 may be produced using software development tools as are known in the art.
  • the software 120 may include various tools and features for providing user interaction capabilities as are known in the art.
  • FIG. 3 is a dataflow diagram of a system 300 according to one embodiment.
  • the turbine 60 produces turbine data 302.
  • the turbine data 302 could be compiled at a controller (not shown) or other computing device that receives information from a turbine or other machine. It shall be understood that while the description of FIG. 3 relates to a turbine, the system 300 could replace the turbine with any type of machine from which data may be collected.
  • the turbine data 302 can include one or more of: the heat rate (HR), the measured power output (DWATT), turbine speed (high pressure shaft) (TNH), gross corrected power, atmospheric pressure (AFPAP), measured turbine exhaust pressure loss (AFPEP), compressor efficiency and compressor flow rate.
  • the turbine data 302 can include times when, for example, a water wash was performed on the compressor.
  • the turbine data 302 is provided to an assessor 301.
  • the assessor 301 could be the same as or a portion of the assessor 64 shown in FIG. 1 .
  • the assessor 301 includes a signal-processing module 304.
  • the signal-processing module 304 filters and sorts the turbine data 302 in one embodiment.
  • the signal-processing module 304 could be omitted.
  • signal-processing module 304 In the event that that signal-processing module 304 is present, it can perform one or more of the following: operating mode filtering; signal smoothing (using either median or Savitzky-Golay (SG)) filtering; and data normalization. Of course, the signal-processing module 304 could perform other types of processing on the turbine data 302. Regardless of the type of filtering of processing, the signal-processing module 304 produces processed data 306.
  • the processed data 306 is provided to a change detection module 308 in one embodiment.
  • the signal-processing module 304 can be omitted.
  • the turbine data 302 can be provided directly to the change detection module 308.
  • the change detection module 308 is generally configured to test data over time and detect time-based variations in the turbine data 302. In particular, the change detection module 306 applies tests to the data and determines if any of the values or changes in the values exceeds an associated threshold.
  • tests There are several types of detection schemes (tests) that can be implemented by the change detection module 306. These schemes include, but are not limited to, a Hotelling T 2 transform test, a Likelihood Ratio test, a combination of the Hotelling T 2 transform test and the Likelihood Ratio test, a z score calculation, a two sample t test, an entropy base test, an offline water detection test, a mean or base value shift test and a high slope detection test. In one embodiment, one or more of these tests are performed on one or both of the HR and DWATT values received from the turbine 60. Of course, other types of tests could be performed and those listed can be implemented by one of skill in the art. In one embodiment, the detection of an undesirable change in any of the parameters in the turbine data 302 can result in the generation of an alarm.
  • the change detection module 308 produces detected changes data 310.
  • This detected changes data 310 represents the particular alarms (or lack thereof) generated based on the tests performed in the change detection module 308.
  • the detected changes data 310 can include a table of the states of all of the monitored turbine parameters as they existed when an alarm was generated.
  • the detected changes data 310 can be combined to form an evidence matrix in one embodiment as described below.
  • FIG. 4 shows an example portion 400 of an evidence matrix according to one embodiment.
  • the portion 400 illustrates an entry in an evidence matrix where both an HR alarm (column 402) and a DWATT alarm (column 404) were created for a particular unit (e.g., for a particular turbine). Of course, other types of alarms could be included in the portion 400.
  • the portion 400 also includes indications of the state of other additional parameters 406-420. The states of the additional parameters 406-420 indicate whether those parameters where within normal operating conditions or had been performed recently (in the case of, for example, water washes) when the HR or DWATT alarm was created.
  • the portions 400 can be created over time for an individual unit and across a fleet of units.
  • the portions 400 can all be combined to form an evidence matrix 500 as shown in FIG. 5 .
  • the evidence matrix 500 identifies the unit (column 502) and the time of the alarm (column 504) in one embodiment.
  • the portion 400 and the evidence matrix 500 can include only entries for when the turbine or a portion thereof (e.g., the compressor) failed in one embodiment.
  • the definition of failure is variable and depends on the context.
  • each entry in the evidence matrix 500 can also include an indication of the actual failure cause.
  • the evidence matrix 500 can be formed from individual portions 400 contained in the detected changes data 310 and stored in a database 314.
  • the evidence matrix 500 can be utilized as part of a root cause analysis (RCA) according to one embodiment of the present invention.
  • the RCA includes utilizing a BBN model. Indeed, it shall be understood that the BBN model could be created from the evidence matrix in one embodiment.
  • the detected changes data 310 is provided to a root cause analyzer 312.
  • the root cause analyzer 312 analyzes the detected changes 310 for a current alarm condition and creates a prediction of the root cause of the alarm. For example, assume that an HR alarm was encountered at the same time that the compressor was receiving a water wash. In such a case, the HR alarm could be predicted to be causes by the fact that the water wash was occurring. It shall be understood that the above example is simplistic and is presented by way of example, not as a limitation.
  • FIG. 6 illustrates a construct 600 utilized in the root cause analyzer 314 in one embodiment.
  • the construct can be formed based on, for example, examination of an evidence matrix 500 ( FIG. 5 ).
  • a more complete construct that provides a probabilistic framework for all possible measured values can be created from system knowledge and the evidence matrix and then trimmed to remove non-contributing or non-detectable information according to known principles.
  • the construct 600 illustrated in FIG. 6 is such a trimmed version.
  • each entry in the evidence matrix can include an indication of the actual cause of the alarm state.
  • Such actual causes are also referred to herein as "root causes” and are shown in FIG. 6 as by root cause bubble 602. It shall be understood that the causes can be selected from, in one embodiment, compressor issues, turbine malfunction, inlet condition changes, firing temperature changes, water wash, sensor calibration issues, bleed valve open and filter change outs to name but a few.
  • a separate construct 600 can be developed for each root cause.
  • the construct 600 can include other, different parameters 604-620. The particular arrangement and connections between the parameters is based on the actual observed data in one embodiment.
  • the construct 600 forms the basis for a BBN and is based on the belief of a human expert.
  • a BBN is graphical representation of the variable of a domain of interest and represents the relationships among variable in a construct 600 as illustrated in FIG. 6 .
  • the construct 600 is a direct acyclic graph (DAG).
  • the variables (604-620) have a finite set of states and are connected by edges (e.g., edges 622) to form a DAG.
  • Each variable A has parents, B 1 ..., B n .
  • bubbles 614, 618 and 620 are parents of bubble 616.
  • the probability that B happened given that A happened is defined by Baye's Rule which is illustrated in Eg. 1.
  • a P a
  • b i P b i P a kP a
  • the root cause analyzer 312 can compare current detected changes data 310 to the BBN shown in FIG. 6 for one or more of the root causes. Such a comparison will yield a prediction of the root cause based on the state (alarm or not) of all of the measurable parameters.
  • the report 70 includes an indication of the root cause that most closely matches the current conditions.
  • the report 70 could include a listing of all of the root causes defined in the system and the probability that each of them is the root cause of the current alarms.
  • the system illustrated in FIG. 3 includes a learning tool 316 that causes one or more of the BBN's to be changed based on this new information.
  • the BBN's can be updated over time as more data is collected.
  • the systems and methods disclosed herein can be utilized to provide maintenance recommendations.
  • the system can also include maintenance analyzer 318.
  • the maintenance analyzer 318 is configured to analyze the report 70 and produce a maintenance recommendation 320.
  • the report 70 indicates that a particular turbine has an 80% chance of low compressor efficiency (i.e. that there is 80% chance that the compressor is the cause of the current alarm).
  • the maintenance analyzer 318 may create a maintenance recommendation 320 stating that the compressor related components are to be checked during the next maintenance interval.
  • the particular rules utilized by the maintenance analyzer 318 can be determined and varied based on the context.
  • FIG. 7 is a dataflow diagram illustrating a system 700 according to another embodiment of the present invention. It shall be understood that the system 700 illustrated in FIG. 7 could be integrated into the system 300 shown in FIG. 3 .
  • the turbine 60 produces turbine data 702.
  • the turbine data 702 could be compiled at a controller (not shown) or other computing device that receives information from a turbine or other machine.
  • the system 700 could replace the turbine with any type of machine from which data may be collected.
  • the system 700 can include multiple turbines 60 that form a fleet.
  • the system 700 produces a scorecard.
  • the scorecard can be either a fleet wide scorecard 704 or a unit scorecard 706 for a particular unit.
  • the fleet wide scorecard 704 includes several unit scorecards 706 combined together.
  • the turbine data 702 is provided to an assessor 701 that creates one or both of the scorecards 704, 706 there from.
  • the turbine data 702 can include one or more of: the heat rate (HR), the measured power output (DWATT), turbine speed (high pressure shaft) (TNH), gross corrected power, atmospheric pressure (AFPAP), measured turbine exhaust pressure loss (AFPEP), compressor efficiency (COMP_EFF) and compressor flow rate (COMP_FLOW).
  • the turbine data 702 can include times when, for example, a water wash was performed on the compressor.
  • the turbine data 702 is provided to an assessor 701.
  • the assessor 701 could be the same as or a portion of the assessor 64 shown in FIG. 1 .
  • the assessor 701 includes a signal-processing module 708.
  • the signal-processing module 708 filters and sorts the turbine data 702 in one embodiment.
  • the signal-processing module 708 could be omitted.
  • the signal- processing module 708 could perform some or all of the same functions as the signal-processing module 304 shown in FIG. 3 .
  • the signal processing module 708 produces processed data 710.
  • the processed data 710 includes, in one embodiment, a series of pairs of heat rate data where each pair indicates the heat rate following successive water washes.
  • other data pairs related to a water wash could be included.
  • any of the other turbine data 702 could be included in the processed data 710 (whether processed or not).
  • the assessor 701 also includes a change detection module 712 that determines if the change in the pairs or other information exceeds a threshold and outputs detected changes data 714.
  • the assessor 701 of this embodiment may also include a scorecard generator 712 configured to generate one or both of the fleet wide scorecard 704 and the unit scorecard 706 from the detected changes.
  • the unit scorecard 706 includes an indication of whether the performance of the unit is degrading and, if so, by how much.
  • One metric that can be utilized for such a determination is a mean shift change.
  • FIG. 8 shows a graph of performance degradation over time.
  • the heat rate (trace 802) is at first level, L1 following a first water wash (illustrated by line 803).
  • the heat rate 802 is a second level following a second water wash 805.
  • the difference between the first level, LI, and the second level, L2 indicates an amount of performance degradation that can be tracked overtime.
  • the change detection module 712 can determine the difference between L1 and L2 ( FIG. 7 ) in one embodiment.
  • the unit scorecard 706 can include different values based on the level of performance degradation.
  • the unit scorecard 706 could indicate that the performance is not degrading, is degrading by less than one percent per wash or is degrading by more than one percent per wash. Of course, such information could also be used to predict future degradation of the unit over time.
  • performance degradation predictions can be included in the fleet wide scorecard 704, the unit scorecard, or both.
  • such predictions are based on a model created by a Kalman Filtering process.
  • HR k a k x time k + c k
  • a(k) is the slope of the degradation curve
  • c(k) is the intercept.
  • the process equation is modeled as a random walk and applied to current data until an appropriate model is achieved. This model can then be used to predict the rate of change of the heat rate in the future.
  • the system shown in FIG. 7 can utilize current parameters and an operating profile of the turbine to predict a rate of change in its heat rate values now or at a future time. Such future predictions can also be utilized by the maintenance analyzer 318 ( FIG. 3 ) to determine when specific maintenance may be performed.

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Claims (15)

  1. Turbinen-Leistungsdiagnosesystem (50), das einen Leistungsbericht für eine oder mehrere Turbinen erzeugt, wobei das System (50) Folgendes umfasst:
    ein Bewertungsmodul, das Betriebsdaten von mindestens einer Turbine (60) empfängt und einen Leistungsbericht (70) aus den Betriebsdaten erzeugt, wobei das Bewertungsmodul umfasst:
    ein Änderungsfeststellungsmodul (308), das dafür ausgelegt ist, festzustellen, wann mindestens ein Parameter sich über einen damit verbundenen Schwellwert hinaus verändert hat, und eine Alarmmeldung zu erzeugen; und
    einen Grundursachenanalysator (312), der mit dem Änderungsfeststellungsmodul (308) verbunden ist, der eine Grundursache für die Alarmmeldung vorhersagt, wobei ein Bayessches Wahrscheinlichkeitsnetzwerk (BBN) genutzt wird, wobei das BBN aus einer Nachweismatrix (500) erzeugt wird, die mehrere Einträge, welche den vorher festgestellten Alarmzuständen entsprechen, und Hinweise auf einen Zustand von zusätzlichen Parametern enthält;
    wobei der Leistungsbericht (70) einen Hinweis auf die vorhergesagte Grundursache enthält.
  2. System (50) nach Anspruch 1, wobei die Anzeichen für den Zustand der zusätzlichen Parameter anzeigen, ob diese Parameter innerhalb normaler Betriebszustände waren oder kürzlich ausgeführt worden sind.
  3. System (50) nach Anspruch 1 oder 2, wobei das Änderungsfeststellungsmodul (308) mindestens eines der folgenden Elemente ausführt: einen Hotelling T2-Transformationstest, einen Wahrscheinlichkeitsverhältnistest, eine Kombination des Hotelling T2-Transformationstests und eines Wahrscheinlichkeitsverhältnistests, eine Z-Wert-Berechnung, einen Zwei-Stichproben-t-Test, einen Entropie-Basistest, einen Offline-Wassernachweistest, einen Mittelwert- oder Grundwertverschiebungstest und einen Hochneigungserfassungstest, um die Alarmmeldung zu erzeugen.
  4. System (50) nach Anspruch 1 oder 2, wobei das BBN auf der Basis von vorherigen Betriebsdaten gebildet wird, die sich auf die mindestens eine Turbine (60) beziehen.
  5. System (50) nach einem der Ansprüche 1 bis 4, wobei die Nachweismatrix (500) mehrere Teile umfasst, wobei jeder Teil ein Anzeichen für andere Alarmzustände umfasst, die vorhanden waren, als eine erste Alarmmeldung erzeugt wurde.
  6. System nach Anspruch 5, wobei die Nachweismatrix zumindest teilweise aus Betriebsdaten von Turbinen gebildet wird, die nicht die mindestens eine Turbine sind.
  7. System nach Anspruch 5, wobei die Nachweismatrix ferner einen Hinweis auf die tatsächliche Ursache der Alarmmeldung für jeden Teil enthält.
  8. System nach einem der vorherigen Ansprüche, ferner umfassend:
    eine Datenbank zum Speichern des BBN; und
    ein Lernwerkzeug, das mit der Datenbank gekoppelt ist, das das BBN auf der Basis der Genauigkeit der BBN-Grundursachen-Vorhersagen modifiziert.
  9. System (50) nach einem der vorherigen Ansprüche, das ferner Folgendes umfasst:
    einen Wartungsanalysator (318), der eine Wartungsempfehlung (320) auf der Basis des Berichtes erzeugt.
  10. System nach einem der vorherigen Ansprüche, wobei der Parameter eine Wärmerate von einer der Turbinen ist.
  11. System nach Anspruch 10, wobei der Parameter die Verschlechterung der Wärmerate nach einer Kompressor-Wasserwäsche ist.
  12. Verfahren zum Bestimmen einer Grundursache eines Turbinenalarms für mindestens eine Turbine, wobei das Verfahren umfasst:
    Feststellen an einer Rechenvorrichtung, dass der Turbinenalarm existiert;
    Feststellen an der Rechenvorrichtung, welche anderen Alarmzustände existieren, falls vorhanden, wenn die Alarmzustände zum Erzeugen eines Ereignisteils existieren; und
    Vorhersagen der Grundursache des Ereignisses aus dem Ereignisteil durch Vergleichen des Ereignisteils mit einem Bayesschen Wahrscheinlichkeitsnetzwerk (BBN), wobei das BBN aus einer Nachweismatrix (500) erzeugt wird, die mehrere Einträge hat, welche vorher festgestellten Alarmzuständen entsprechen, und Hinweise auf einen Zustand von weiteren Parametern.
  13. Verfahren nach Anspruch 12, wobei die Anzeichen für den Zustand der zusätzlichen Parameter anzeigen, ob diese Parameter innerhalb normaler Betriebszustände waren oder kürzlich ausgeführt worden sind.
  14. Verfahren nach Anspruch 12 oder 13, wobei das BBN auf der Basis von vorherigen Betriebsdaten gebildet wird, die sich auf die mindestens eine Turbine (60) beziehen.
  15. System nach Anspruch 12, 13 oder 14, wobei die Nachweismatrix (500) zumindest teilweise aus Betriebsdaten von Turbinen gebildet wird, die nicht die mindestens eine Turbine (60) sind.
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EP2458178A3 (de) 2015-12-16
JP6088131B2 (ja) 2017-03-01
US20120136819A1 (en) 2012-05-31
US8751423B2 (en) 2014-06-10
JP2012118981A (ja) 2012-06-21
EP2458178B2 (de) 2022-07-20
CN102539129A (zh) 2012-07-04

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