CN114764262A - Method for predicting and controlling power generation power of solar power station - Google Patents
Method for predicting and controlling power generation power of solar power station Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05F—SYSTEMS FOR REGULATING ELECTRIC OR MAGNETIC VARIABLES
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- G05F1/66—Regulating electric power
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- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
- G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
- G05B13/0265—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric the criterion being a learning criterion
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- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
- G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
- G05B13/04—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators
- G05B13/042—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators in which a parameter or coefficient is automatically adjusted to optimise the performance
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
- G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
- G05B13/04—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators
- G05B13/048—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators using a predictor
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power station, which comprises the following steps: step 1, predicting a power generation power curve of a solar power generation station area on the next day as planned power generation power according to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power generation station; and 2, adjusting the angle of the solar power generation array in real time according to the measurement data of sky image acquisition equipment (not limited to a camera) and solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment (not limited to an irradiance meter) the next day, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned tracking power generation power of the solar power station is minimized. By utilizing the method and the device, the accuracy of the generated power prediction can be improved, the real-time optimization of the angle of the solar power generation array is realized, the planned generated power is tracked, and the economic benefit of the solar power station is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power generation optimization of solar power stations, and particularly relates to a method for predicting and controlling power generation power of a solar power station.
Background
Generally, a power station needs to make a power generation plan of a power station area according to factors such as illumination intensity and a solar array of the power station area, on one hand, if the generated power made in the power generation plan is too low, the benefit of the power station area is reduced, and on the other hand, if the generated power made in the power generation plan is too high, the planned power generation task is difficult to complete, and power grid coordination is affected. Therefore, a reasonable power generation plan is formulated according to the operation condition of the power station area, and the method has important significance for smooth operation of the station area and ensuring economic benefit.
In the solar power generation process, the solar power generation panel needs to maintain a proper angular relationship with the sun to ensure the rated power generation, wherein the factors to be considered include: (1) the sun's altitude and azimuth at different times; (2) the effect of cloud distribution in the sky on illumination intensity, such as diffuse irradiance, direct irradiance, and reflected irradiance; (3) system parameters of the power station area, such as the type of a solar panel, the type of an inverter and the like; (4) real-time adjustment of the solar panel angle to achieve minimum deviation from the planned generated power.
The traditional solar power generation array angle calculation method only considers one or more methods, and the generated power of the solar power station is difficult to accurately predict.
For example, chinese patent publication No. CN111338392A discloses a sun tracking method and system, which determines the elevation angle and azimuth angle of the sun through accurate calculation, and sets a correction model to further improve the accuracy of the elevation angle and azimuth angle, so as to realize automatic sun tracking with higher accuracy of a solar panel and improve the solar energy conversion efficiency.
Chinese patent publication No. CN111781959A discloses an automatic sunlight tracking device, which uses a single chip microcomputer control unit as a core, detects the intensity of sunlight through a sunlight detection receiving device, accurately determines the altitude angle of the sun, and adjusts the horizontal direction and the pitching angle of a photovoltaic panel through a driving mechanism of a single motor, so as to ensure that a solar photovoltaic panel can be always perpendicular to the sunlight, track the movement track of the sun in time, and improve the power generation efficiency of solar energy.
The method can well track the position of the sun, but the problems in the steps (3) and (4) are not considered, so that the actual generated power of the solar power station cannot accurately track the planned generated power.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power station, which can greatly improve the accuracy of the generated power prediction of a power station area and ensure that the actual generated power of the solar power station accurately tracks the planned generated power.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power station is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) predicting a generated power curve of the solar power station area on the next day according to the meteorological data and the digital model of the solar power station, and taking the predicted generated power curve as planned generated power;
(2) on the next day, the solar power generation array angle is adjusted in real time according to the measurement data of the sky image acquisition device (not limited to a camera) and the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition device (not limited to an irradiance meter), so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized.
The method of the invention predicts the generating power of the generating station area by combining various information, jointly optimizes the angle of the solar generating array and improves the economic benefit of the generating station area.
The specific process of the step (1) is as follows:
(1-1) fitting a station power generation system model through power generation station historical data, and optimizing the prediction capability of the model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiation intensity of the next day by using the weather forecast and the historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel on the next day by using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system:
and (1-4) calculating to obtain a next-day planned power generation power curve by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the solar power generation panel angle in (1-3).
In the step (1-1), the power generation system model has the following form:
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
where x represents a state variable including, but not limited to, historical power generation power, etc., u represents an input variable including, but not limited to, solar panel angle, etc., P represents a power generation system parameter including, but not limited to, power plant site geographical location, power plant site weather conditions, solar panel type, inverter type, etc., w represents a measurable or estimable disturbance variable including, but not limited to, model mismatch, noise, etc., P represents power generation power, f represents a power generation system model form including, but not limited to, a physical model and a neural network-based black box model.
The specific process of the step (2) is as follows:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel to be adjusted on the basis of planning the angle of the solar power generation panel;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar power generation panel in real time according to the calculation result.
In step (2-1), the optimization problem has the following form:
min J(x,u,p)
s.t.
h(x,u)≥0
g(x,u)＝0
wherein J is an objective function and represents the deviation between the predicted generated power and the planned generated power within a period of examination time from the current time to the future, the larger the J is, the larger the deviation is, and the smaller the J is, the smaller the deviation is. The form of J includes, but is not limited to, a two-norm of the deviation of the predicted generated power and the planned generated power. h represents an inequality constraint including, but not limited to, an angle limit for the tracking motor, a speed limit for the tracking motor, etc., and g represents an equality constraint including, but not limited to, a physical model describing the inverter, the tracking motor, the power generation cell, etc., a deviation model, etc. x represents system variables including but not limited to generated power, historical generated power, etc., u represents input variables including but not limited to solar panel angle, etc., and p represents system parameters including but not limited to geographical location of the power plant area, weather conditions of the power plant area, solar panel type, inverter type, etc.
Preferably, the solar power generation array angle control command is sent to the actuator for control.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the method can predict the generated power of the power station area by combining various information, and has higher accuracy;
2. the generated power prediction of the invention can consider the distribution condition of the illumination intensity of the station area, and adjust the angle of the solar power generation panel in real time to minimize the deviation between the actual generated power and the planned generated power;
3. different from the conventional independent optimization method of the solar power generation array, the method can perform combined optimization on the angle of the solar power generation array, and improve the economic benefit.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the process of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of the sun's angle in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph comparing the actual generated power and the planned generated power of a solar power plant in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the drawings and examples, which are intended to facilitate the understanding of the invention without limiting it in any way.
The embodiment takes a square power generation station as an example, and describes a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power generation station in detail,
as shown in fig. 1, a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power plant comprises the following steps:
step 1, predicting a generated power curve of a solar power station area in the next day according to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power station to be used as planned generated power. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
(1-1) fitting a station power generation system model through power generation station historical data, and optimizing the prediction capability of the model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiation intensity of the next day by using weather forecast and historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel on the next day by using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system:
and (1-4) calculating to obtain a next-day planned generating power curve by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the angle of the solar power generation panel in (1-3).
Taking 22.9.2020, 120 ° east longitude, 36 ° north latitude and 0m altitude as an example, the sun angle is as shown in fig. 2, and the model form in (1-1) is
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
In the embodiment, historical generated power of the last 24 hours is selected as a state variable, a solar panel angle is selected as an input variable, a geographical position of a power station area, a weather condition of the power station area, a type of the solar panel and a type of an inverter are selected as system parameters, model mismatch is considered as a disturbance variable, a neural network model is trained by using historical data of the last year, and a final planned generated power curve is shown as a solid line in fig. 3;
and 2, adjusting the angle of the solar power generation array in real time according to the measurement data of sky image acquisition equipment (not limited to a camera) and solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment (not limited to an irradiance meter) the next day, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized. The method comprises the following steps:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel to be adjusted on the basis of planning the angle of the solar power generation panel;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar power generation panel in real time according to the calculation result.
In the present embodiment, the optimization problem in (2-1) takes the following form
s.t.
θmin≤θ≤θmax
Δθmin≤Δθ≤Δθmax
Wherein P isaRepresents the planned power generation amount of the power,
represents the predicted generated power, t represents time, theta represents the angle of the solar panel, delta theta represents the angle change speed of the solar panel,
representing real-time weather conditions, irradiance. The above optimization problem describes the current time t0To t0Within the + t time, the optimization target is that the two-norm minimum of the deviation between the planned generated power and the predicted generated power is achieved, wherein the upper and lower limits of the angle of the solar power generation panel are thetamaxAnd thetaminThe upper and lower limits of the angular change speed of the solar power generation panel are delta thetamaxAnd Δ θmin. g represents the mapping relation between time, solar panel angle, weather condition, irradiance mapping and generated power.
Fig. 3 shows a graph of the actual generated power versus the planned generated power for a solar power plant. It can be seen that the actual generated power of the solar power station accurately tracks the planned generated power.
The embodiments described above are intended to illustrate the technical solutions and advantages of the present invention, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only specific embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, additions and equivalents made within the scope of the principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power station is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) predicting a generated power curve of the solar power station area on the next day according to the meteorological data and the digital model of the solar power station, and taking the predicted generated power curve as planned generated power;
(2) and on the next day, adjusting the angle of the solar power generation array in real time according to the measurement data of the sky image acquisition equipment and the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized.
2. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the concrete process of the step (1) is as follows:
(1-1) fitting a station power generation system model through power generation station historical data, and optimizing the prediction capability of the model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiation intensity of the next day by using weather forecast and historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel on the next day by using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system;
and (1-4) calculating to obtain a next-day planned power generation power curve by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the solar power generation panel angle in (1-3).
3. The method for predicting and controlling generated power of a solar power plant according to claim 2, wherein in the step (1-1), the model of the power generation system has the following form:
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
where x represents a state variable including but not limited to historical power generation, u represents an input variable including but not limited to solar panel angle, P represents a power generation system parameter including but not limited to power plant site geographical location, power plant site weather conditions, solar panel type, inverter type, w represents a measurable or an estimated disturbance variable including but not limited to model mismatch, noise, P represents power generation, and f represents a power generation system model form including but not limited to physical models and neural network based black box models.
4. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power plant as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step (2), the sky image collection device includes but is not limited to a camera.
5. The method for predicting and controlling the generating power of the solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein in the step (2), the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition device comprises but is not limited to an irradiance meter.
6. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the concrete process of the step (2) is as follows:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the angle of the solar power generation panel to be adjusted on the basis of planning the angle of the solar power generation panel;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar power generation panel in real time according to the calculation result.
7. The method for power generation prediction and control of a solar power plant according to claim 6, characterized in that in step (2-1) the optimization problem has the form:
minJ(x,u,p)
s.t.
h(x,u)≥0
g(x,u)＝0
j is an objective function and represents the deviation between the predicted generated power and the planned generated power within a period of examination time from the current time to the future, wherein the larger the J is, the larger the deviation is, and the smaller the J is, the smaller the deviation is; the form of J includes, but is not limited to, the two-norm of the deviation of the predicted generated power and the planned generated power; h represents inequality constraints including but not limited to angle limit of the tracking motor, speed limit of the tracking motor and the like, and g represents equality constraints including but not limited to physical models and deviation models describing the inverter, the tracking motor, the power generation battery and the like; x represents a system variable including, but not limited to, generated power, historical generated power; u represents input variables including, but not limited to, solar panel angle, and p represents system parameters including, but not limited to, geographical location of the power plant area, weather conditions of the power plant area, solar panel type, inverter type.
8. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the solar power array angle control command is sent to an actuator for control.
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