CN114764262B - Solar power station power generation power prediction and control method - Google Patents
Solar power station power generation power prediction and control method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting and controlling the power generated by a solar power station, which comprises the following steps: step 1, predicting a power generation power curve of a solar power station area in the next day according to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power station as planned power generation; and 2, adjusting the angle of the solar power generation array in real time according to the measured data of the sky image acquisition equipment (not limited to a camera) and the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment (not limited to an irradiance meter) the next day, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned tracking power generation power of the solar power station is minimized. By utilizing the method, the accuracy of the prediction of the generated power can be improved, the angle of the solar power generation array can be optimized in real time, the planned generated power can be tracked, and the economic benefit of the solar power station can be improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power generation optimization of solar power stations, and particularly relates to a power generation power prediction and control method of a solar power station.
Background
In general, a power station needs to make a power generation plan of a power station area according to factors such as illumination intensity, a power station area solar array and the like, if the power generation power made in the power generation plan is too low, the benefit of the power station area is reduced, and if the power generation power made in the power generation plan is too high, a planned power generation task is difficult to complete, and power grid coordination is affected. Therefore, according to the operation condition of the power station area, a reasonable power generation plan is formulated, and the method has important significance for the stable operation of the power station area and the guarantee of economic benefit.
In the process of solar power generation, a solar power generation panel needs to maintain a proper angle relation with the sun to ensure rated power generation, wherein factors to be considered include: (1) the sun's altitude and azimuth at different moments in time; (2) The effect of aerial cloud distribution on illumination intensity, such as scattered irradiance, direct irradiance, and reflected irradiance; (3) System parameters of the power station area, such as solar panel type, inverter type and the like; (4) The angle of the solar panel is adjusted in real time to minimize deviation from the planned generated power.
The conventional solar power generation array angle calculation method only considers one or a plurality of methods, and the power generation power of the solar power station is difficult to accurately predict.
As disclosed in chinese patent document CN111338392a, a solar tracking method and system are disclosed, in which a correction model is further set while the altitude and azimuth of the sun are determined by accurate calculation, so as to further improve the accuracy of the altitude and azimuth, and thus, the solar tracking with higher accuracy of the solar panel can be achieved, and the solar energy conversion efficiency is improved.
The Chinese patent document with publication number of CN111781959A discloses a sunlight automatic tracking device, which takes a singlechip control unit as a core, detects the intensity of solar rays through a sunlight detection receiving device, accurately determines the elevation angle of the sun, adjusts the horizontal azimuth and the pitching angle of a photovoltaic panel through a driving mechanism of a single motor, ensures that the solar photovoltaic panel can be always vertical to the solar rays, and timely tracks the movement track of the sun, thereby improving the power generation efficiency of solar energy.
The method can well track the position of the sun, but the problems (3) and (4) are not considered, and the actual power generated by the solar power station cannot accurately track the planned power.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for predicting and controlling the power generated by a solar power station, which can greatly improve the accuracy of power generation prediction in a power station area and enable the actual power generation of the solar power station to accurately track the planned power generation.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
the method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power station is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
(1) According to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power station, predicting a power generation power curve of the solar power station area in the next day to serve as planned power generation power;
(2) The next day, according to the measurement data of sky image acquisition equipment (not limited to cameras) and solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment (not limited to irradiance meters), the angle of the solar power generation array is adjusted in real time, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized.
According to the method, the power generation power of the power station area is predicted by combining various information, the angle of the solar power generation array is jointly optimized, and the economic benefit of the power station area is improved.
The specific process of the step (1) is as follows:
fitting a station area power generation system model through the history data of the station area, and optimizing the prediction capacity of the model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiance intensity for the next day using the weather forecast and the historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the next day solar panel angle using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system:
and (1-4) calculating to obtain a planned power generation curve of the next day by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the angle of the solar panel in (1-3).
In step (1-1), the power generation system model has the following form:
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
where x represents a state variable, including but not limited to historical generated power, etc., u represents an input variable, including but not limited to solar panel angle, etc., P represents a power generation system parameter, including but not limited to power plant area geographic location, power plant area weather conditions, solar panel type, inverter type, etc., w represents a measurable or an estimated disturbance variable, including but not limited to model mismatch, noise, etc., P represents generated power, f represents a power generation system model form, including but not limited to a physical model and a neural network based black box model.
The specific process of the step (2) is as follows:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the solar panel angle to be adjusted on the basis of the planned solar panel angle;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar panel in real time according to the calculation result.
In step (2-1), the optimization problem has the following form:
minJ(x,u,p)
s.t.
h(x,u)≥0
g(x,u)＝0
and J is an objective function, and represents the deviation between the predicted power generation power and the planned power generation power in a period from the current time to the future examination time, wherein the larger J represents the larger deviation, the smaller J represents the smaller deviation. The form of J includes, but is not limited to, a two-norm of the deviation of the predicted generated power from the planned generated power. h represents inequality constraints including, but not limited to, angular limits on the tracking motor, speed limits on the tracking motor, etc., and g represents equality constraints including, but not limited to, physical models describing inverters, tracking motors, power generation batteries, etc., and bias models, etc. x represents system variables including but not limited to generated power, historical generated power, etc., u represents input variables including but not limited to solar panel angle, etc., and p represents system parameters including but not limited to power plant area geographic location, power plant area weather conditions, solar panel type, inverter type, etc.
Preferably, the solar power generation array angle control instruction is sent to the actuator for control.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the invention can predict the power generation power of the power station area by combining various information, and has higher accuracy;
2. according to the invention, the power generation power prediction can consider the distribution condition of illumination intensity of a station area, and the angle of the solar power generation panel is adjusted in real time so as to minimize the deviation between actual power generation power and planned power generation power;
3. different from the conventional independent optimization method of the solar power generation array, the method can perform joint optimization on the angle of the solar power generation array, and improve economic benefit.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of the sun angle according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a graph showing the comparison between the actual power and the planned power of the solar power plant according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be described in further detail with reference to the drawings and examples, it being noted that the examples described below are intended to facilitate the understanding of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention in any way.
In this embodiment, a square power station area is taken as an example, a method for predicting and controlling the power generated by a solar power station is described in detail,
as shown in fig. 1, a method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power station includes the following steps:
and step 1, predicting a power generation power curve of a solar power station area on the next day according to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power station, and taking the power generation power curve as planned power generation. The method comprises the following steps:
fitting a station area power generation system model through the history data of the station area, and optimizing the prediction capacity of the model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiance intensity for the next day using the weather forecast and the historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the next day solar panel angle using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system:
and (1-4) calculating to obtain a planned power generation curve of the next day by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the angle of the solar panel in (1-3).
Taking 22 days of 9 months in 2020, 120 degrees of east longitude and 36 degrees of north latitude and 0m of altitude as an example, the sun angle is shown in figure 2, and the model form in (1-1) is
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
In this embodiment, the historical power generated in the past 24 hours is selected as a state variable, the solar panel angle is selected as an input variable, the geographical position of the power station area, the weather condition of the power station area, the solar panel type and the inverter type are selected as system parameters, the model mismatch is considered as a disturbance variable, the neural network model is trained by using the historical data of the past year, and the final planned power generation curve is shown as a solid line in fig. 3;
and 2, adjusting the angle of the solar power generation array in real time according to the measured data of the sky image acquisition equipment (not limited to a camera) and the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment (not limited to an irradiance meter) the next day, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized. The method comprises the following steps:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the solar panel angle to be adjusted on the basis of the planned solar panel angle;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar panel in real time according to the calculation result.
In the present embodiment, the optimization problem in (2-1) takes the following form
s.t.
θ min ≤θ≤θ max
Δθ min ≤Δθ≤Δθ max
Wherein P is a Represents the planned generated power of the electric power generation,represents predicted power generation, t represents time, θ represents an angle of the solar power panel, Δθ represents an angle change speed of the solar power panel, +.>Indicating real-time weather conditions and irradiance. The above optimization problem describes the time t from the current time 0 To t 0 In +t time, the optimization target is that the two norms of the deviation between the planned generated power and the predicted generated power are minimum, wherein the upper and lower limits of the angle of the solar power generation plate are theta max And theta min The upper and lower limits of the angle change speed of the solar power generation plate are delta theta max And delta theta min . g represents the mapping relationship between the irradiance map and the generated power by time, solar panel angle, weather condition.
Fig. 3 shows a graph of the actual generated power versus the planned generated power of the solar power plant. It can be seen that the actual power generated by the solar power plant accurately tracks the planned power generated.
The foregoing embodiments have described in detail the technical solution and the advantages of the present invention, it should be understood that the foregoing embodiments are merely illustrative of the present invention and are not intended to limit the invention, and any modifications, additions and equivalents made within the scope of the principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of the invention.
Claims (4)
1. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of the solar power station is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
(1) According to meteorological data and a digital model of the solar power station, predicting a power generation power curve of the solar power station area in the next day to serve as planned power generation power; the specific process is as follows:
fitting a station area power generation system model through the history data of the station area, and optimizing the prediction capacity of the model; the power generation system model has the following form:
P＝f(x,u,p,w)
wherein x represents a state variable including historical generated power, u represents an input variable including solar panel angle, P represents a power generation system parameter including power plant region geographical location, power plant region weather condition, solar panel type, inverter type, w represents a measurable or an estimated disturbance variable including model mismatch, noise, P represents generated power, f represents a power generation system model form including a physical model and a neural network-based black box model;
(1-2) predicting the irradiance intensity for the next day using the weather forecast and the historical irradiance data;
(1-3) calculating the next solar panel angle using a tracking control algorithm of the power generation system;
(1-4) calculating to obtain a planned power generation curve of the next day by using the model in (1-1), the irradiation intensity data in (1-2) and the solar panel angle in (1-3);
(2) The next day, according to the measurement data of the sky image acquisition equipment and the solar irradiation intensity data acquisition equipment, the angle of the solar power generation array is adjusted in real time, so that the deviation between the actual power generation power and the planned power generation power of the solar power station is minimized; the specific process is as follows:
(2-1) periodically solving an optimization problem, and calculating the solar panel angle to be adjusted on the basis of the planned solar panel angle; the optimization problem has the following form:
minJ(x,u,p)
s.t.
h(x,u)≥0
g(x,u)＝0
wherein J is an objective function, and represents the deviation between the predicted power generation power and the planned power generation power in a period of examination time from the current time to the future, and the larger J represents the larger deviation, the smaller J represents the smaller deviation; the form of J includes a second norm of the deviation of the predicted generated power from the planned generated power; h represents an inequality constraint including an angular limit on the tracking motor, a speed limit on the tracking motor; g represents an equality constraint, including a physical model and a deviation model describing the inverter, the tracking motor, the power generation battery; x represents system variables including generated power, historical generated power; u represents input variables including solar panel angles, p represents system parameters including power plant area geographical location, power plant area weather conditions, solar panel type, inverter type;
and (2-2) adjusting the angle of the solar panel in real time according to the calculation result.
2. The method for predicting and controlling the generated power of a solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the sky image acquisition device comprises a camera in step (2).
3. The method for predicting and controlling the power generated by a solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the solar irradiation intensity data collection device comprises an irradiance meter in the step (2).
4. The method for predicting and controlling the power generated by a solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein the solar power generation array angle control command is sent to an actuator for control.
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