CN109884896A - A kind of photovoltaic tracking system optimization tracking based on similar day irradiation prediction - Google Patents
A kind of photovoltaic tracking system optimization tracking based on similar day irradiation prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of photovoltaic tracking systems based on similar day irradiation prediction to optimize tracking, by obtaining the meteorologic parameter of following one day of forecast of meteorological observatory as base vector, the N days history meteorologic parameter vectors with identical weather phenomenon are chosen, k is chosen with k nearest neighbour method calculates one day horizontal plane of future closest to vector apart from base vector and always irradiate and the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal direction；By the predetermined tracking strategy of photovoltaic tracking system, day-tracking system-ground three's geometrical relationship and scattering irradiation model, the direct projection of photovoltaic tracking system surface and scattering irradiation profile are calculated；The generated energy that photovoltaic system was installed and be horizontally mounted to the final comprehensive generated energy to photovoltaic tracking system with electricity consumption, optimum angle of incidence is assessed, and following one day optimum operating mode is selected.The present invention can calculate the generated energy difference compared under measurement place different installation, balance photovoltaic tracking system generated energy and electricity consumption, obtain the photovoltaic tracking system method of operation of best cost of electricity-generating.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of photovoltaic tracking systems based on similar day irradiation prediction to optimize tracking, belongs to solar energy
Photovoltaic system applied technical field.
Technical background
Currently, improving the main method of photovoltaic generating system efficiency has: improving battery efficiency, using maximum service rating point
Tracking technique, exploitation novel photovoltaic module and solar tracking etc..But in a short time, former three is difficult the breakthrough for having big, therefore
For concentration photovoltaic system, solar tracking has prior meaning.Existing photovoltaic tracking technology can accurately track position of sun,
But under the conditions of the cloudy and cloudy day, photovoltaic tracking may not necessarily increase additional power amount income and photovoltaic tracking device to photovoltaic system
Additional electrical energy loss can be generated.Therefore the solar irradiation predicting means in need by efficiently and accurately, to the following one day or multiple days
Irradiation profile situation is predicted.
Numerous studies are done on the statistical model of irradiation prediction both at home and abroad at present, statistical model does not need photovoltaic system etc.
Internal characteristics information, it be based on a large amount of historical datas extract mutual data between connection come predict photovoltaic system contribute situation.
Researcher establishes linear steady, linear non-stationary, non-linear steady by the relationship between research irradiation profile and its dependent variable
Equal regression equations model, can be improved regression model accuracy by bringing mass data into.As artificial intelligence and machine learning are close
Rapid development in several years, ANN, k-NN, support vector machines (SVM), random forest method (RF) etc. are transported extensively in photovoltaic art
With.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of existing technologies, a kind of photovoltaic tracking system tracking is provided
Prioritization scheme reasonably selects the tracking system method of operation, photovoltaic module surface is made to obtain maximum under the set tracking method of operation
Day irradiation.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention will provide one kind based on similar day irradiation profile 1 day or more days future of prediction
Solar irradiation distribution, using generated energy under the conditions of tracking mode or fixed installation mode, and choose within assessment prediction following one day
Optimum total power mode is as following 1 day or more days photovoltaic system operation modes.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is as follows:
A kind of photovoltaic tracking system optimization tracking based on similar day irradiation prediction, comprising the following steps:
1) testing location future where meteorological data prediction module obtains one morning 7 points to 17 points of meteorological number in afternoon
According to, including temperature on average T, accumulated rainfall RF, mean wind speed WS, average relative humidity RH and mean total cloud CI, construct gas
As the base vector p of parameter0, p0=[T, RF, WS, RH, CI]；
2) the testing location following one day total irradiation profile of level and earth's surface normal direction where horizontal irradiation prediction module calculates
Direct irradiation profile；
3) generated energy computing module calculates following one day photovoltaic tracking system generated energy and photovoltaic system power generation is fixedly mounted
Amount；
4) according to the generated energy in the case of two kinds of the step 3), optimized operation state is determined.
In aforementioned step 1), the meteorological data prediction module at least obtain on weather site time interval 1 hour or
Within meteorological data.
In aforementioned step 2), horizontal total irradiation profile and the direct irradiation profile calculating of earth's surface normal direction are as follows:
21) n history day is chosen, the phasor set of the history meteorologic parameter in n history day is constructed；
22) each history meteorologic parameter vector p in phasor set is calculatediWith base vector p0Between Euclidean distance di, calculate
Method is as follows:
di=| | pi-p0||2
Wherein, right side of the equal sign is 2 norms of vector, and i=1,2 ... ..., n, n is history number of days；
23) k d is choseniThe smallest history day calculates the following one day total irradiation index of levelWith direct projection index
Wherein, α value is 0-1, kgiFor horizontal total irradiation index, kbiFor direct projection index, GiIt always irradiates and divides for level ground
Cloth, GexiFor the horizontal total irradiation profile in the atmosphere upper bound, BiFor the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal direction, BexiFor atmosphere upper bounding method
To direct irradiation profile, subscript i indicates i-th of history day；
24) following one day total irradiation profile in level groundWith the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal directionIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,For the horizontal total irradiation profile in following one day atmosphere upper bound,For following one day atmosphere upper bounding method
To direct irradiation profile.
The history meteorologic parameter in history day above-mentioned is chosen are as follows:
Choose following nearly 30 days one day T, RF, WS, RH, CI historical datas；It is identical as following one day to choose passing 3-5
The front and back on date totally 31 days T, RF, WS, RH, CI data, collectively as the history meteorologic parameter in history day.
K value above-mentioned is 30.
In aforementioned step 3), closed by the predetermined tracking strategy of photovoltaic tracking system, day-tracking system-ground three's geometry
System and irradiation computation model calculate photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiation distribution in following one day；The photovoltaic tracking system it is predetermined with
Track strategy is indicated by photovoltaic module plane, level ground and direct sunlight line geometry relationship.
Following one day photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiation above-mentionedIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,It is directly irradiated for one day photovoltaic tracking system surface of future,For following one day photovoltaic tracking system table
Area scattering irradiation, θiFor normal direction direct line and photovoltaic module angle,For the following sky and water in-plane scatter irradiation profile, RdFor
Scatter transformation ratio, θzFor following one day solar zenith angle,
RdIt calculates as follows:
Rd=a1Rd1+a2Rd2+a3Rd3
Wherein, Rd1Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system for Perez or photovoltaic system is fixedly mounted
Surface scattering transformation ratio scatters irradiation model according to Perez and is calculated；Rd2Irradiation model is scattered about water for Willmot
Photovoltaic system surface scattering transformation ratio is fixedly mounted in plane and photovoltaic tracking system, scatters irradiation model according to Willmot
It is calculated；Rd3Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system for Bugler or photovoltaic system surface is fixedly mounted
Transformation ratio is scattered, irradiation model is scattered according to Bugler and is calculated；a1、a2And a3For weight coefficient.
Weight coefficient above-mentioned calculates as follows:
a2=1-a1-a3
Wherein, τ is smoothing factor, kt' always to irradiate modified index,
Wherein, M is air quality index,For following one day horizontal total irradiation index.
In aforementioned step 3), generated energy calculates as follows:
Wherein, PmaxThe photovoltaic module maximum power point power inscribed when each for following one day；It is photovoltaic tracking system when i=1
System generated energy；System generated energy is fixedly mounted for photovoltaic when i=2；
Wherein, ImrefFor maximum power point electric current at standard conditions, GrefIt is strong for the solar irradiation under the status of criterion
Degree, VmrefFor the maximum power point voltage under the status of criterion, TrefFor the component temperature under the status of criterion, T is component temperature, and β is
Component voltage temperature coefficient.
In aforementioned step 4), optimized operation state selective fashion are as follows:
It is assumed that when photovoltaic tracking system power consumption is the 5% of photovoltaic system generated energy, then photovoltaic tracking system actual power
Amount is 0.95GC1, the direction fixed installation operation of photovoltaic module due south, the generated energy not tracked are GC2；Work as GC2It is greater than
0.95GC1When, then select photovoltaic module due south towards fixed installation operation, not tracking mode；It is on the contrary then select just frequently with light
Lie prostrate tracking system scheme；
Wherein, following several situations are divided into for the comparison of photovoltaic tracking system and fixed installation mode:
If A, photovoltaic tracking system is double-axis tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is infield optimum angle of incidence or water
Plane Installation mode；
If B, photovoltaic tracking system is flat uniaxiality tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is infield horizontal plane installation side
Formula；
If C, photovoltaic tracking system is oblique uniaxiality tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is that infield tilts installation side
Formula.
The beneficial effects obtained by the present invention are as follows are as follows:
Middle model through the invention simple and fast can assess the following 1 day or more days solar irradiation distribution of measurement place,
In conjunction with accurate irradiation model, the generated energy difference compared under measurement place different installation can be calculated, photovoltaic tracking is balanced
System generated energy and electricity consumption obtain the photovoltaic tracking system method of operation of best cost of electricity-generating.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The invention will be further described below.Following embodiment is only used for clearly illustrating technical side of the invention
Case, and not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.
The present invention provides a kind of photovoltaic tracking system optimization tracking based on similar day irradiation prediction, as shown in Figure 1,
It is specific as follows:
(1) following one day meteorological data of testing location where meteorological data prediction module obtains
The following one day time interval of testing location where meteorological data prediction module is obtained by weather site be 1 hour or
Within 7 points of morning to 17 points of temperature on average T in afternoon, accumulated rainfall RF, mean wind speed WS, average relative humidity RH peace
Equal total amount of cloud CI, constructs the base vector p of meteorologic parameter0, p0=[T, RF, WS, RH, CI].
(2) the testing location following one day total irradiation profile of level and normal direction are direct where horizontal irradiation prediction module calculates
Irradiation profile
The k in N number of history day history days similar with the following gas situation day by day are chosen by k nearest neighbour method, and according to k
A similar historical day calculates horizontal total irradiation profile and the direct irradiation profile of normal direction, and steps are as follows for specific algorithm:
S1: following nearly 30 days one day T, RF, WS, RH, CI historical datas of a. are chosen；B. passing 3-5 and one day future
The front and back of phase same date totally 31 days T, RF, WS, RH, CI data, are based on historical data, construct the phasor set of meteorologic parameter.
S2: each history meteorologic parameter vector p in phasor set is calculatediWith base vector p0Between Euclidean distance, calculating side
Method is as follows:
di=| | pi-p0||2 (1)
Wherein, formula (1) right side of the equal sign is 2 norms of vector, and i=1,2 ... ..., n, n is history number of days.
S3: k d is choseniThe horizontal total irradiation index kg and direct projection index kb in the smallest history day, calculates following one day water
Flat total irradiation indexDirect projection index
Wherein, α value is 0-1, is selected as 1, G in calculating process of the inventioniFor the total irradiation profile in level ground, Gexi
For the horizontal total irradiation profile in the atmosphere upper bound, BiFor the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal direction, BexiFor the direct spoke of atmosphere upper bound normal direction
According to distribution, k value is taken as 30, and subscript i indicates i-th of history day.
S4: following one day total irradiation profile in level groundWith the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal directionIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,For the horizontal total irradiation profile in following one day atmosphere upper bound,For following one day atmosphere upper bounding method
To direct irradiation profile.
(3) generated energy computing module calculates the distribution of photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiation, comments in conjunction with one day Temperature Distribution of future
Estimate photovoltaic system generated energy, selects optimized operation state.
By the predetermined tracking strategy of photovoltaic tracking system, day-tracking system-ground three's geometrical relationship, computation model is irradiated,
The distribution of photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiation is calculated, photovoltaic system generated energy is assessed in conjunction with following one day Temperature Distribution, selects optimal
Operating status.
The predetermined tracking strategy of photovoltaic tracking system is the tracking mode of photovoltaic tracking system, is run with actual tracking system
Mode is related, but it can be indicated by photovoltaic module plane, level ground and direct sunlight line geometry relationship.Therefore, future
Photovoltaic tracking system surface directly irradiates computation model within one day are as follows:
Wherein,It is directly irradiated for one day photovoltaic tracking system surface of future, θiFor normal direction direct line and photovoltaic module
Angle.
Photovoltaic tracking system surface scattering in following one day irradiates computation model are as follows:
Photovoltaic tracking system total surface irradiates computation model within following one day are as follows:
Wherein,For photovoltaic tracking system surface scattering irradiation in following one day；For the following sky and water in-plane scatter irradiation
Distribution；θzFor following one day solar zenith angle；RdTo scatter transformation ratio, Rd=a1Rd1+a2Rd2+a3Rd3；Rd1For Perez scattering
Model is irradiated about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system or photovoltaic system surface scattering transformation ratio is fixedly mounted, according to perez
Scattering irradiation model is calculated, and is used as known quantity herein；Rd2For Willmot scatter irradiation model about horizontal plane and photovoltaic with
Photovoltaic system surface scattering transformation ratio is fixedly mounted in track system, scatters irradiation model according to Willmot and is calculated, herein
As known quantity；Rd3Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system for Bugler or photovoltaic system table is fixedly mounted
Area scattering transformation ratio scatters irradiation model according to Bugler and is calculated, is used as known quantity herein；a1、a2And a3For weight system
Number indicates are as follows:
a2=1-a1-a3 (13)
Wherein, τ is smoothing factor, and value range 50-150 is selected as 100 in calculating process of the present invention.k′tFor total spoke
According to modified index, calculate are as follows:
Wherein, M is air quality index.
Therefore, future is sent out to 17 photovoltaic tracking system generated energy in afternoon with photovoltaic system is fixedly mounted for 7 points one morning
Electricity calculation method are as follows:
Wherein, PmaxThe photovoltaic module maximum power point power inscribed when each for following one day；It is photovoltaic tracking system when i=1
System generated energy；System generated energy is fixedly mounted for photovoltaic when i=2.
Wherein, ImrefFor maximum power point electric current at standard conditions, GrefIt is strong for the solar irradiation under the status of criterion
Degree, VmrefFor the maximum power point voltage under the status of criterion, TrefFor the component temperature under the status of criterion, T is component temperature, with
The environment temperature of prediction in following one day is identical, and β is component voltage temperature coefficient.
(4) final, it is assumed that when photovoltaic tracking system power consumption is the 5% of photovoltaic system generated energy, photovoltaic tracking system is real
Border generated energy is 0.95GC1, the direction fixed installation operation of photovoltaic module due south, the generated energy not tracked are GC2.If tracking system
System is double-axis tracking, and the fixed installation mode of comparison can be infield optimum angle of incidence or horizontal plane mounting means；If tracking
System is flat uniaxiality tracking, and the fixed installation mode of comparison is infield horizontal plane mounting means；If tracking system is tiltedly single
Axis tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison are that infield tilts mounting means.Work as GC2Greater than 0.95GC1When, then select photovoltaic
Operation, not tracking mode is fixedly mounted in component due south direction；It is on the contrary then select just frequently with photovoltaic tracking system scheme.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, without departing from the technical principles of the invention, several improvement and deformations can also be made, these improvement and deformations
Also it should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction optimizes tracking, which is characterized in that including following step
It is rapid:
1) testing location future where meteorological data prediction module obtains one morning 7 points to 17 points of meteorological data in afternoon, packet
Temperature on average T, accumulated rainfall RF, mean wind speed WS, average relative humidity RH and mean total cloud CI are included, meteorologic parameter is constructed
Base vector p0, p0=[T, RF, WS, RH, CI]；
2) the testing location following one day total irradiation profile of level and earth's surface normal direction are direct where horizontal irradiation prediction module calculates
Irradiation profile；
3) generated energy computing module calculates following one day photovoltaic tracking system generated energy and photovoltaic system generated energy is fixedly mounted；
4) according to the generated energy in the case of two kinds of the step 3), optimized operation state is determined.
2. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 1 optimizes tracking,
Be characterized in that, in the step 1), the meteorological data prediction module at least obtain on weather site time interval 1 hour or with
Interior meteorological data.
3. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 1 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, in the step 2), horizontal total irradiation profile and the direct irradiation profile calculating of earth's surface normal direction are as follows:
21) n history day is chosen, the phasor set of the history meteorologic parameter in n history day is constructed；
22) each history meteorologic parameter vector p in phasor set is calculatediWith base vector p0Between Euclidean distance di, calculation method
It is as follows:
di=| | pi-p0||2
Wherein, right side of the equal sign is 2 norms of vector, and i=1,2 ... ..., n, n is history number of days；
23) k d is choseniThe smallest history day calculates the following one day total irradiation index of levelWith direct projection index
Wherein, α value is 0-1, kgiFor horizontal total irradiation index, kbiFor direct projection index, GiFor the total irradiation profile in level ground,
GexiFor the horizontal total irradiation profile in the atmosphere upper bound, BiFor the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal direction, BexiIt is straight for atmosphere upper bound normal direction
Irradiation profile is connect, subscript i indicates i-th of history day；
24) following one day total irradiation profile in level groundWith the direct irradiation profile of earth's surface normal directionIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,For the horizontal total irradiation profile in following one day atmosphere upper bound,It is following one day atmosphere upper bounding method to straight
Connect irradiation profile.
4. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 3 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, the history meteorologic parameter in the history day is chosen are as follows:
Choose following nearly 30 days one day T, RF, WS, RH, CI historical datas；Choose passing 3-5 and following one day phase same date
Front and back totally 31 days T, RF, WS, RH, CI data, collectively as the history meteorologic parameter in history day.
5. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 3 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, the k value is 30.
6. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 1 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, in the step 3), is closed by the predetermined tracking strategy of photovoltaic tracking system, day-tracking system-ground three's geometry
System and irradiation computation model calculate photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiation distribution in following one day；The photovoltaic tracking system it is predetermined with
Track strategy is indicated by photovoltaic module plane, level ground and direct sunlight line geometry relationship.
7. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 3 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, following one day photovoltaic tracking system surface irradiationIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,It is directly irradiated for one day photovoltaic tracking system surface of future,It is dissipated for following one day photovoltaic tracking system surface
Penetrate irradiation, θiFor normal direction direct line and photovoltaic module angle,For the following sky and water in-plane scatter irradiation profile, RdFor scattering
Transformation ratio, θzFor following one day solar zenith angle,
RdIt calculates as follows:
Rd=a1Rd1+a2Rd2+a3Rd3
Wherein, Rd1Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system for Perez or photovoltaic system surface is fixedly mounted
Transformation ratio is scattered, irradiation model is scattered according to Perez and is calculated；Rd2Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane for Willmot
With photovoltaic tracking system or fixed installation photovoltaic system surface scattering transformation ratio, irradiation model is scattered according to Willmot and is calculated
It obtains；Rd3Irradiation model is scattered about horizontal plane and photovoltaic tracking system for Bugler or photovoltaic system surface scattering is fixedly mounted
Transformation ratio scatters irradiation model according to Bugler and is calculated；a1、a2And a3For weight coefficient.
8. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 7 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, the weight coefficient calculates as follows:
a2=1-a1-a3
Wherein, τ is smoothing factor, kt' always to irradiate modified index,
Wherein, M is air quality index,For following one day horizontal total irradiation index.
9. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 7 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, in the step 3), generated energy calculates as follows:
Wherein, PmaxThe photovoltaic module maximum power point power inscribed when each for following one day；It is sent out when i=1 for photovoltaic tracking system
Electricity；System generated energy is fixedly mounted for photovoltaic when i=2；
Wherein, ImrefFor maximum power point electric current at standard conditions, GrefFor the solar irradiation intensity under the status of criterion, Vmref
For the maximum power point voltage under the status of criterion, TrefFor the component temperature under the status of criterion, T is component temperature, and β is component electricity
Press temperature coefficient.
10. a kind of photovoltaic tracking system based on similar day irradiation prediction according to claim 1 optimizes tracking,
It is characterized in that, in the step 4), optimized operation state selective fashion are as follows:
It is assumed that then photovoltaic tracking system actual power generation is when photovoltaic tracking system power consumption is the 5% of photovoltaic system generated energy
For 0.95GC1, the direction fixed installation operation of photovoltaic module due south, the generated energy not tracked are GC2；Work as GC2Greater than 0.95GC1When,
Then select photovoltaic module due south towards fixed installation operation, not tracking mode；It is on the contrary then select just frequently with photovoltaic tracking system
Scheme；
Wherein, following several situations are divided into for the comparison of photovoltaic tracking system and fixed installation mode:
If A, photovoltaic tracking system is double-axis tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is infield optimum angle of incidence or horizontal plane
Mounting means；
If B, photovoltaic tracking system is flat uniaxiality tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is infield horizontal plane mounting means；
If C, photovoltaic tracking system is oblique uniaxiality tracking, the fixed installation mode of comparison is that infield tilts mounting means.
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