CN111596381A - Method for estimating direct irradiation proportion by using double radiometers - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for estimating the proportion of direct irradiation, which comprises the following steps: s1: respectively collecting horizontal total irradiation and inclined plane total irradiation by using more than two irradiation meters; s2: according to the total horizontal irradiation, a fine day index is preset to obtain horizontal direct irradiation and horizontal scattering irradiation, and theoretical inclined plane irradiation is calculated according to an inclined plane irradiation model; s3: and (4) performing clear weather index deduction, comparing theoretical inclined plane irradiation with actual measurement inclined plane irradiation, determining a clear weather index interval, and finally, conjecturing the current clear weather index through an interpolation method. The method can provide necessary basic irradiation information for subsequent data analysis, and also can provide necessary input conditions such as elimination of 'pseudo-cloudy' state and judgment of 'cloudy leveling' for optimal angle calculation of the tracking support under different weather conditions, so that the method is low in equipment cost, simple and feasible.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a calculation method of an irradiation proportion, in particular to a method for predicting a direct irradiation proportion by using double radiometers, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent model algorithm optimization of solar and double-sided component tracking systems.
Background
The development and utilization of renewable energy sources due to global fossil energy shortage are receiving wide attention from all circles. Solar photovoltaic power generation has been rapidly developed in recent years due to the characteristics of abundant resources, wide distribution, environmental protection and the like.
In order to improve the generated energy of a photovoltaic system, the photovoltaic power generation technology is continuously innovated. The flat single shaft, the inclined single shaft and the double-shaft tracking system enable the photovoltaic module to receive more irradiation, and the generated energy is greatly improved. The development of the double-sided photovoltaic component, the energy efficiency evaluation of the photovoltaic system and the like can further improve the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic system, and the development process of photovoltaic power generation enters the qualitative improvement from the increase of the capacity.
Innovative technologies such as a double-sided component + tracking support system and system energy efficiency evaluation need basic input conditions in an application link to achieve optimization of power generation, such as daily weather conditions, namely irradiation values at all times, including direct irradiation and scattered irradiation, most of existing photovoltaic power stations are usually only provided with one irradiator, only horizontal total irradiation can be measured, direct irradiation and scattered irradiation are not measured, and the current real weather conditions cannot be evaluated in detail, so that difficulties and challenges exist in system energy efficiency analysis, such as calculation of PR (Per radiation) values, calculation of when the tracking system is leveled (the scattered irradiation received by leveling on a cloudy day is maximum), calculation of optimization angles of the double-sided component + tracking support system and the like.
In the prior art, about 12 thousands of weather stations of a double-shaft tracking system, such as a RaZON + integrated solar monitoring system of Kipp & Zonen, and about 5 thousands of full-automatic tracking solar radiometers of RYQ-SAT3 of Shaozhihua, can acquire horizontal total irradiation and horizontal scattered irradiation, and calculate to obtain horizontal direct irradiation, thereby evaluating the current weather condition. However, the equipment cost is high, and the practical application is greatly limited.
In addition, some patent documents mention the use of light-sensitive sensors to assess current weather conditions, such as: in chinese patent application No. 201810126342.6 entitled "solar panel automatic light tracking system", and patent documents with publication No. CN103809617B entitled "control method of photovoltaic power generation dual-axis tracking system", photosensitive sensors are used as sensors of the illumination intensity detection module, but such methods have disadvantages that when a cloud layer is shielded, the photosensitive sensors cannot detect direct light, and are considered as cloudy days, but are not cloudy days, there is misjudgment, and meanwhile, the reliability of the photosensitive sensors is not high, and in order to achieve a monitoring effect, a large number of such sensors need to be used, which increases application cost to a certain extent, resulting in low applicability.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a method of estimating a direct irradiation proportion,
the problem of misjudging weather conditions in the prior art can be solved, the cost is low, the reliability is high, and the maintenance is convenient.
Therefore, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method for estimating a direct irradiation proportion, characterized by: comprises the following steps:
s1: respectively collecting horizontal total irradiation and inclined plane total irradiation by using more than two irradiation meters;
s2: according to the total horizontal irradiation, a fine day index is preset to obtain horizontal direct irradiation and horizontal scattering irradiation, and theoretical inclined plane irradiation is calculated according to an inclined plane irradiation model;
s3: and (4) performing clear weather index deduction, comparing theoretical inclined plane irradiation with actually measured inclined plane irradiation, determining a clear weather index interval, and finally, conjecturing the current clear weather index through an interpolation method.
Further, in step S1, the total horizontal irradiation and the total inclined plane irradiation are measured by two or more irradiators, respectively, and the inclination angle of the inclined plane in the total inclined plane irradiation is a fixed inclination angle in the fixed inclination angle photovoltaic system and an angle set according to the latitude in the tracking rack photovoltaic system.
Further, in step S2, in the oblique plane irradiation model, the oblique plane total irradiation is composed of oblique plane direct irradiation, oblique plane scattering irradiation, and oblique plane reflection irradiation.
Further, in step S2, the total irradiation of the inclined plane is calculated by the following method:
s2-1: calculating the local true solar time and the time angle and declination angle indicating the time change according to the latitude and the mean solar time of the project ground warp:
in the case of true sun:
wherein 120 is an example, namely 120 ° longitude, longitude value taken by beijing time, T is local time, L is local longitude, and Δ T is true mean solar time difference of a certain day;
the time angle calculation formula is as follows: ω 15 (ST-12),
declination angle calculation formula:
wherein n isdThe day of the year, such as 3 months and 20 days in spring minutes, and the day of 80 days;
s2-2: calculating the zenith angle theta of the sunZ：
S2-3: calculating the solar incident angle thetai：
s2-4: an inclined plane irradiation model: bevel irradiation includes three parts:
a: inclined plane direct irradiation BfWherein B isf＝In*RbIn which InIn order to horizontally irradiate the direct radiation,
b: oblique surface scattering irradiation DfWherein D isf＝Id*RdIn which IdIn order to scatter the radiation horizontally,
wherein: sky clarity factor FHay＝In/H0，
Irradiance H outside the atmosphere in the direction perpendicular to the sun rays0，
c: oblique plane reflection irradiation RfWherein:
where ρ is the surface reflectivity.
Further, in step S3, the sunny index deduction method includes the following steps:
s3-1: define the concept of sunny index(s):
clear weather index(s) horizontal direct irradiation (I)n) Horizontal total irradiation (I)h) I.e. the direct irradiation proportion; the clear weather index(s) has a value range of [0, 1%]；
S3-2: calculating the sunny index(s):
s301: acquiring horizontal total irradiation data and inclined plane total irradiation data by more than two irradiation instruments;
s302: in the value range [0,1], assuming a plurality of clear day indexes in an equal difference manner, and respectively obtaining the corresponding direct irradiation and scattering irradiation values under each clear day index;
s303: calculating inclined plane irradiation under each clear day index through direct irradiation and scattering irradiation;
s304: comparing the measured inclined plane irradiation with the calculated inclined plane irradiation;
s305: and judging which clear day index interval the actual inclined plane irradiation falls in, taking the clear day index interval as the current clear day index, and primarily judging the weather state.
S306: and evaluating the index value of the current sunny day by using an interpolation method.
The invention obtains the current direct irradiation proportion by using more than two (including two) radiometers to respectively measure horizontal irradiation and inclined plane irradiation and through a sunny index deduction method based on an inclined plane irradiation model, thereby evaluating the current weather condition. Meanwhile, the invention can provide necessary basic irradiation information for subsequent data analysis, and also can provide necessary input conditions such as elimination of 'pseudo-cloudy' state, judgment of 'cloudy leveling' and the like for the optimal angle calculation of the tracking support under different weather conditions.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. only one radiometer is added on the basis of conventional power station data acquisition, so that the cost of added equipment is low, and the method is simple and feasible;
2. the method provided by the invention can evaluate the current clear day index, namely the weather condition, provides for data analysis, mining and energy efficiency evaluation, and provides input conditions for tracking angle optimization of a tracking system;
3. more importantly, the invention can eliminate the phenomenon of 'pseudo-cloudy' which exists in the instrument using the photosensitive sensor as the illumination intensity detection module when the weather station judges that the weather condition is cloudy because the weather station does not have direct irradiation when a cloud shields the weather station. Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the overall calculation of the sunny index deduction method of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the irradiation acquisition of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a comparison of the measured clear day index and the presumed clear day index of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
In this example, two radiometers are used as an example for explanation. Under the condition that more radiometers are used for collecting irradiation information, the division of work of each radiometer on the collection of horizontal total irradiation and inclined plane total irradiation can be distributed according to actual use requirements.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for estimating the direct irradiation proportion of the present invention comprises the steps of:
s1: respectively collecting horizontal total irradiation and inclined plane total irradiation by using two irradiation scores; specifically, two irradiation instruments are used for measuring horizontal total irradiation and total irradiation of an inclined plane respectively and used as main input parameters, the inclination angle of the inclined plane can be determined according to specific items, a fixed-inclination photovoltaic system can keep the inclination angle of the inclined plane of the irradiation instrument consistent with the fixed inclination angle and can provide basis for subsequent theoretical power generation calculation and the like, and a tracking support photovoltaic system can be set properly according to the latitude degree;
s2: according to the total horizontal irradiation, a fine day index is preset to obtain horizontal direct irradiation and horizontal scattering irradiation, and theoretical inclined plane irradiation is calculated according to an inclined plane irradiation model; in the inclined plane irradiation model, the total irradiation of the inclined plane consists of inclined plane direct irradiation, inclined plane scattering irradiation and inclined plane reflection irradiation.
The total irradiation of the inclined plane is obtained by the following calculation method:
s2-1: calculating the local true solar time and the time angle and declination angle indicating the time change according to the latitude and the mean solar time of the project ground warp:
in the case of true sun:
wherein 120 is an example, namely 120 ° longitude, longitude value taken by beijing time, T is local time, L is local longitude, and Δ T is true mean solar time difference of a certain day;
the time angle calculation formula is as follows: ω 15 (ST-12),
declination angle calculation formula:
wherein n isdThe day of the year, such as 3 months and 20 days in spring minutes, and the day of 80 days;
s2-2: calculating the zenith angle theta of the sunZ：
S2-3: calculating the solar incident angle thetai：
s2-4: an inclined plane irradiation model: bevel irradiation includes three parts:
a: inclined plane direct irradiation BfWherein B isf＝In*RbIn which InIn order to horizontally irradiate the direct radiation,
b: oblique surface scattering irradiation DfWherein D isf＝Id*RdIn which IdIn order to scatter the radiation horizontally,
wherein: sky clarity factor FHay＝In/H0，
Irradiance H outside the atmosphere in the direction perpendicular to the sun rays0，
c: oblique plane reflection irradiation RfWherein:
where ρ is the surface reflectivity.
S3: and (4) performing clear weather index deduction, comparing theoretical inclined plane irradiation with actually measured inclined plane irradiation, determining a clear weather index interval, and finally, inferring the current clear weather index by an interpolation method.
As shown in fig. 2, the overall calculation flow of the fine weather index deduction method in this embodiment is as follows:
s3-1: define the concept of sunny index(s):
clear weather index(s) horizontal direct irradiation (I)n) Horizontal total irradiation (I)h) I.e. the direct irradiation proportion; the clear weather index(s) has a value range of [0, 1%]；
S3-2: calculating the sunny index(s):
s301: respectively acquiring horizontal total irradiation data and inclined plane total irradiation data by two irradiation instruments;
s302: in the value range [0,1], assuming a plurality of clear day indexes in an equal difference manner, and respectively obtaining the corresponding direct irradiation and scattering irradiation values under each clear day index; as a specific example, assuming that the clear day indexes are 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1, respectively, direct irradiation and scattered irradiation values corresponding to different clear day indexes are obtained respectively;
s303: calculating inclined plane irradiation under each clear day index through direct irradiation and scattering irradiation;
s304: comparing the measured inclined plane irradiation with the calculated inclined plane irradiation;
s305: judging which clear day index interval the actual inclined plane irradiation falls in, taking the clear day index interval as the current clear day index, and primarily judging the weather state;
s306: and estimating the index value of the current sunny day by using an interpolation method.
The above-described clear weather index deduction method will be described in detail by specific examples as follows:
s301: acquiring horizontal total irradiation data and inclined plane total irradiation data through two irradiators, specifically:
first, input parameters are set, such as: latitude and longitude, surface reflectivity, current time, etc., as shown in table 1:
wherein, total horizontal irradiation IhAnd total irradiation of inclined plane ItMeasured by an irradiator; as shown in fig. 3, the inclination angle of the inclined plane can be determined according to specific items, the inclination angle of the inclined plane of the irradiator can be kept consistent with the fixed inclination angle in the photovoltaic system with the fixed inclination angle, and meanwhile, a basis can be provided for subsequent theoretical power generation calculation and the like, and the photovoltaic system with the tracking support can be properly set according to the latitude. In table 1, the example is taken with a tilt of 25 ° in the south of the plus, consistent with a fixed tilt for installations in the changzhou region. The specific input parameter is Changzhou region
For example, 1, 8 days in 2020, at a time T of 14 hours and 13 minutes, the measured total horizontal irradiance data is Ih＝500W/m2The oblique irradiation is It＝662W/m2；
S302: assuming that the clear weather index s is 0.1, obtaining a horizontal direct irradiation I through a horizontal total irradiationn＝IhS, i.e. 500 x 0.1 ═ 50W/m2Horizontal scattering irradiance value Id＝Ih-InIs 450W/m2Similarly, assuming that the clear day index s is 0/0.2/0.3/0.4/0.5/0.6/0.7/0.8/0.9/1, respectively obtaining the corresponding direct irradiation value and the scattering irradiation value under each assumed clear day index;
s303: calculating theoretical inclined plane irradiation under each sunny day index through direct irradiation and scattering irradiation, specifically:
the inclined plane irradiation comprises three parts, namely: 1) inclined plane direct irradiation Bf(ii) a 2) Oblique surface scattering irradiation Df(ii) a 3) Oblique plane reflection irradiation Rf；
It(theory)) ═ Bf+Df+RfWherein:
1) the inclined plane is irradiated directly,
Bf＝In*Rb，
wherein
The zenith angle calculation formula is as follows:
the formula for calculating the solar incident angle is as follows:
wherein
The local latitude is defined, a is an irradiator installation inclination angle, and gamma is an irradiator installation azimuth angle;
wherein, declination angle computational formula:
the time angle calculation formula is as follows: ω 15 (ST-12),
when the sun is true:
wherein 120 is an example, namely 120 ° longitude, longitude value taken by beijing time, T is local time, L is local longitude, and Δ T is true mean solar time difference of a certain day;
2) the irradiation is scattered by the inclined plane,
Df＝Id*Rd，
wherein:
wherein:
sky clarity factor FHay＝In/H0，
Wherein, irradiance H outside the atmosphere in the direction vertical to the sun ray0，
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
ωssunrise/sunset hour angle;
3) inclined plane reflection irradiation
If s is 0.1, calculating according to the horizontal direct incidence and horizontal scattering values to obtain: the value of the direct irradiation of the inclined plane is 78.62W/m2The value of oblique scattering irradiation is 435.96W/m2The ground reflection irradiation value is 2.34W/m2Then obtain It(theory) 516.93W-m2And circularly calculating the total theoretical inclined plane irradiation under each sunny day index, wherein the result is shown in table 2:
s304: comparing the actually measured inclined plane irradiation value with the simulated inclined plane irradiation value;
s305: judging which clear day index interval the actual inclined plane irradiation falls in, taking the clear day index interval as the current clear day index, and primarily judging the weather state;
the measured inclined plane irradiation value is 662W/m at the moment2And when the average value is between 649 and 684, the actual clear sky index is considered to fall within the interval of 0.4-0.5;
s306: the current sunny index may further be evaluated by interpolation to be 0.44.
Experiments are carried out to verify the feasibility of the double-radiometer method for conjecturing the direct irradiation proportion of the clear day index, the clear day index obtained by the horizontal total irradiation and the horizontal scattering irradiation measured by the Kipp & Zonen biaxial tracker is taken as the actually measured clear day index, the clear day index presumed by the double radiometer is the presumed clear day index, the experimental result is shown in fig. 4, it can be seen from the figure that the clear day index presumed by the double radiometer method is the same as the actually measured clear day index in most cases, but under the condition of partial cloud cover, the actually measured clear day index is 0, the method is characterized in that the tracking system is a cloudy day, but the tracking system is not cloudy in reality, only the cloud layer shields direct irradiation, most of the sky is still in a bright state, the clear day index presumed by the double irradiation meters is closer to the actual state, and the weather state of the 'pseudo-cloudy day' is eliminated, so that the method provides a more reliable basis for judging the 'cloudy day leveling' condition of the tracking system.
Claims (5)
1. A method for estimating a direct irradiation proportion, characterized by: comprises the following steps:
s1: respectively collecting horizontal total irradiation and inclined plane total irradiation by using more than two irradiation meters;
s2: according to the total horizontal irradiation, a fine day index is preset to obtain horizontal direct irradiation and horizontal scattering irradiation, and theoretical inclined plane irradiation is calculated according to an inclined plane irradiation model;
s3: and (4) performing clear weather index deduction, comparing theoretical inclined plane irradiation with actually measured inclined plane irradiation, determining a clear weather index interval, and finally, conjecturing the current clear weather index through an interpolation method.
2. The method of inferring proportion of direct irradiation of claim 1, wherein: in step S1, two or more irradiators are used to measure total horizontal irradiation and total inclined plane irradiation, respectively, where the inclination angle of the inclined plane in the total inclined plane irradiation is a fixed inclination angle in the fixed inclination angle photovoltaic system and an angle set according to the latitude in the tracking support photovoltaic system.
3. The method of inferring proportion of direct irradiation of claim 1, wherein: in step S2, in the oblique plane irradiation model, the total irradiation of the oblique plane is composed of oblique plane direct irradiation, oblique plane scattered irradiation, and oblique plane reflected irradiation.
4. The method of inferring proportion of direct irradiation of claim 1, wherein: in step S2, the total irradiation of the inclined plane is calculated by the following method:
s2-1: calculating the local true solar time and the time angle and declination angle indicating the time change according to the latitude and the mean solar time of the project ground warp:
in the case of true sun:
wherein 120 is an example, namely 120 ° longitude, longitude value taken by beijing time, T is local time, L is local longitude, and Δ T is true mean solar time difference of a certain day;
the time angle calculation formula is as follows: ω 15 (ST-12),
declination angle calculation formula:
wherein n isdThe day of the year, such as 3 months and 20 days in spring minutes, and the day of 80 days;
s2-2: calculating the zenith angle theta of the sunZ：
S2-3: calculating the solar incident angle thetai：
s2-4: an inclined plane irradiation model: bevel irradiation includes three parts:
a: inclined plane direct irradiation BfWherein B isf＝In*RbIn which InIn order to horizontally irradiate the direct radiation,
b: oblique surface scattering irradiation DfWherein D isf＝Id*RdIn which IdIn order to scatter the radiation horizontally,
wherein: sky clarity factor FHay＝In/H0，
Outside the atmosphere, perpendicular to the sun's raysIlluminance H0，
c: oblique plane reflection irradiation RfWherein:
where ρ is the surface reflectivity.
5. The method of inferring proportion of direct irradiation of claim 1, wherein: in step S3, the sunny index deduction method includes the following steps:
s3-1: define the concept of sunny index(s):
clear weather index(s) horizontal direct irradiation (I)n) Horizontal total irradiation (I)h) I.e. the direct irradiation proportion; the clear weather index(s) has a value range of [0, 1%]；
S3-2: calculating the sunny index(s):
s301: acquiring horizontal total irradiation data and inclined plane total irradiation data by more than two irradiation instruments;
s302: in the value range [0,1], assuming a plurality of clear-sky indexes in an equal difference manner, and respectively obtaining the corresponding direct irradiation and scattering irradiation values under each clear-sky index;
s303: calculating inclined plane irradiation under each clear day index through direct irradiation and scattering irradiation;
s304: comparing the measured inclined plane irradiation with the calculated inclined plane irradiation;
s305: and judging which clear day index interval the actual inclined plane irradiation falls in, taking the clear day index interval as the current clear day index, and primarily judging the weather state.
S306: and evaluating the index value of the current sunny day by using an interpolation method.
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