CN109086914B - Hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk - Google Patents
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Abstract
The hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps: acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e; the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range; the accident types include: leaks, accidents only, fires and explosions; converting the road network into a undirected network node map, connecting the communication road sections among the nodes by taking road junction points as nodes in the undirected network node map, and setting the road length among the nodes as the basic weight of the road sections among the nodes; and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risks based on the domino road risk value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of hazardous chemical substance transportation, in particular to a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risks.
Background
The rapid development of the chemical industry has prompted the rapid increase and increasing frequency of the amount of hazardous chemical transportation over the past few decades, with over 95% of hazardous chemicals differing in their production and use, which has relied on remote transportation. Among them, about 80% of the dangerous chemical transportation depends on land transportation, and the transportation of dangerous chemicals is a serious problem, and the safety problem of the transportation of the dangerous chemicals is increasingly highlighted. In accidents involving hazardous chemicals, over 40% of the time occurs in the transportation sector. The dangerous chemical transportation accident has the characteristics of low probability and high risk, and once the accident happens, the dangerous chemical transportation accident not only can cause the influence on the environment for a long time and is difficult to repair, but also can easily cause serious casualties, and directly generates huge economic loss. However, in the past studies, only the primary accident consequences are considered for the accident consequences, and the secondary accident consequences such as the occurrence of an explosion fire are rarely considered.
The catastrophic cascade accidents caused in the accident propagation process are called domino effect, the sivedox law promulgated by the european union provides an authoritative basis for paying attention to the occurrence of domino accidents in chemical industrial parks, the law is revised three times in 1996, 2003 and 2012 respectively, and the evaluation of domino risks must be added in the risk evaluation of the chemical industrial parks specified in the file. As the density of storage and process equipment and population increases, the domino effect becomes more and more important in chemical concentration areas. In the research on the domino risks, a great part of research is on the propagation research of the domino risks in a chemical industrial park, a hazardous chemical vehicle is a moving hazard source in the transportation process, and when the hazard source exists around the hazardous chemical vehicle, the risk of causing domino accidents is also existed. When dangerous chemical substance vehicles have accidents, accident consequences of explosion or fire can be caused, and the accident influence range and the injury radius can be greatly increased. If other dangerous sources exist nearby, such as dangerous chemical storage tanks existing in a chemical industry park and gas stations beside roads, or other dangerous chemical vehicles or combustible substances such as coal exist around dangerous chemical vehicles in the first accident, the domino effect of the accident can be caused, and more serious damage can be caused. In the prior art, risk calculation aiming at the problem of planning the path of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle focuses on the result evaluation of the occurrence of a traffic accident on the dangerous chemical substance vehicle, influence factors are focused on conventional factors such as road conditions, weather and population, and the domino effect of the accident is not considered.
Disclosure of Invention
One object of the present invention is: planning the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle, considering the risk of causing a domino effect in the transportation process of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle and the traditional road risk, reducing the possibility of causing the domino accident effect due to the accident, and providing a modeling method for planning the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle based on the dynamic domino risk.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: the hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e;
the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range;
the accident types include: leaks, accidents only, fires and explosions;
converting the road network into a undirected network node map, connecting the communication road sections among the nodes by taking road junction points as nodes in the undirected network node map, and setting the road length among the nodes as the basic weight of the road sections among the nodes;
and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risks based on the domino road risk value.
Further, the domino road risk value is derived based on the road risk value and the domino risk value.
Further, the road risk value is:
wherein R is(i，j)' is a risk value of a road section i-j, wherein i represents a starting node mark number, j represents an ending node mark number, and l represents a road length of the road section i-j; p represents the probability of a traffic accident occurring on a road segment i-j; r is1For the influence range of the leakage of Accident 1, m1The weight occupied by the leakage for accident 1; r is2For Accident 2 only the accident influence range, m2Accident 2 is only weighted by accident; r is3Accident 3 fire impact Range, m3Accident 3, the fire, by weight; r is4For Accident 4 explosion impact Range, m4Weight accident 4 explosion; pop is the impact of an accidentPopulation density around the range.
Further, the formula for calculating the domino risk value is as follows:
wherein l' is the length of the section which can cause domino accidents of the section i-j; l is the length of the i-j road section; r is the influence radius of the accident; q is a correction factor;
PDthe probability of dynamic domino risk accident is the probability of accident occurrence of a hazard source B if a hazardous chemical substance vehicle A has an accident;
a danger source B exists near the i-j road section, and when the dangerous chemical vehicle A passes through the i-j road section, the moving range of the distance d between the dangerous chemical vehicle A and the B along with the A is (d)1，d2) (ii) a r represents the radius of the accident influence range of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A;
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A enters the range of l', when d is less than r, the dangerous source B is in the influence range of the accident of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A, PD＞0；
When the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A is positioned on the other road sections d & gt r, the dangerous source B is out of the influence range of the accident occurrence of A, and P isD＝0。
Further, the calculating the domino road risk value:
when a fire accident and an explosion accident occur, the risk of causing a domino accident exists, and a calculation formula of a road risk value added with the domino risk, namely the domino road risk value is obtained by combining the formulas (3-1), (3-2) and (3-3) and is as follows:
wherein: r(i，j)"representing the i-j road segment risk of joining domino riskValue, < l >'1Accident 3, the length of the section where the fire may cause domino accidents; l'2The length of the section of the road where the accident 4 explosion may cause a domino accident; pD1Probability of a fire causing domino accident for the road segment 3; pD2Probability of domino accident caused by explosion 4 in the road section; r is5(ii) domino accident impact range for accident 3 fire; r is6(ii) domino accident impact range due to accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
Further, the dynamic domino-risk hazardous chemical vehicle path planning model is:
the model takes the minimum risk value for realizing the planned path as an objective function;
the first constraint condition represents that the path starts from a starting point i-s and ends when a terminating node j-e, and the basis weights of the road sections passing through the path are accumulated;
the second constraint condition represents that the road section basis weight is constrained by the connectivity matrix D;
the third constraint condition represents the risk value accumulation of the passed road section;
the connectivity matrix D:
wherein n is the number of nodes of the undirected network node graph, d (i, j) represents the weight between the nodes i-j, and d (i, j) is 0 if the nodes i-j are not connected.
The substantial effects of the invention are as follows: according to the method, the path planning problem of the hazardous chemical substance is added into the calculation of the dynamic domino risk, the risk of domino effect caused by an accident and the traditional road risk of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle in the transportation process are considered, the possibility of domino accident effect caused by the accident is reduced, the dynamic domino risk-based path planning modeling method for the hazardous chemical substance vehicle is established, and a path planning model for the hazardous chemical substance vehicle with lower risk and higher safety coefficient can be established by using the method.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a directed network node diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a model for dynamic domino risk calculation according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solution of the present invention is further specifically described below by way of specific examples in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
The hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
step 1: acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e;
the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range;
in the traditional calculation of the road risk value, the influence area of accidents is considered, and accidents occurring in the transportation process of hazardous chemicals can be divided into four types, namely leakage, accident, fire and explosion, which respectively correspond to an accident 1, an accident 2, an accident 3 and an accident 4;
step 2: as shown in fig. 1, the road network is converted into a undirected network node map, road junctions are used as nodes in the undirected network node map to connect the communication road segments between the nodes, and the road length between the nodes is set as the basic weight of the road segments between the nodes;
and step 3: calculating a road risk value;
road risk value:
wherein R is(i，j)' Risk value for section i-j, i denotes the starting node indexJ represents the end node label, l represents the road length of the road section i-j; p represents the probability of a traffic accident occurring on a road segment i-j; r is1For the influence range of the leakage of Accident 1, m1The weight occupied by the leakage for accident 1; r is2For Accident 2 only the accident influence range, m2Accident 2 is only weighted by accident; r is3Accident 3 fire impact Range, m3Accident 3, the fire, by weight; r is4For Accident 4 explosion impact Range, m4Weight accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
And 4, step 4: calculating a domino risk value;
the formula for calculating the domino risk value is:
as shown in fig. 2, l' is the length of the section i-j that may cause a domino accident; l is the length of the i-j road section; r is the influence radius of the accident; q is a correction factor; coefficient in calculating domino risk value
Dividing the length l' of the section which can cause the domino accident by the total length l of the section, namely averaging the risks of the section which can cause the domino accident on the whole section.
PDThe probability of dynamic domino risk accident is the probability of accident occurrence of a hazard source B if a hazardous chemical substance vehicle A has an accident;
a danger source B exists near the i-j road section, and when the dangerous chemical vehicle A passes through the i-j road section, the moving range of the distance d between the dangerous chemical vehicle A and the B along with the A is (d)1，d2) (ii) a r represents the radius of the accident influence range of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A;
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A enters the range of l', when d is less than rThe dangerous source B is in the influence range of the accident of the dangerous chemical vehicle A, PD＞0；
When the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A is positioned on the other road sections d & gt r, the dangerous source B is out of the influence range of the accident occurrence of A, and P isD＝0。
And 5: calculating a domino road risk value;
when a fire accident and an explosion accident occur, the risk of causing a domino accident exists, and a calculation formula of a road risk value added with the domino risk, namely the domino road risk value is obtained by combining the formulas (3-1), (3-2) and (3-3) and is as follows:
wherein: r(i，j)"road segment risk value of i-j, l 'representing risk of joining domino'1Accident 3, the length of the section where the fire may cause domino accidents; l'2The length of the section of the road where the accident 4 explosion may cause a domino accident; pD1Probability of a fire causing domino accident for the road segment 3; pD2Probability of domino accident caused by explosion 4 in the road section; r is5(ii) domino accident impact range for accident 3 fire; r is6(ii) domino accident impact range due to accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
Step 6: and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on the dynamic domino risk based on the domino road risk value.
The planning model of the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle with the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
the model takes the minimum risk value for realizing the planned path as an objective function;
the first constraint condition represents that the path starts from a starting point i-s and ends when a terminating node j-e, and the basis weights of the road sections passing through the path are accumulated;
the second constraint condition represents that the road section basis weight is constrained by the connectivity matrix D;
the third constraint condition represents the risk value accumulation of the passed road section;
the connectivity matrix D:
wherein n is the number of nodes of the undirected network node graph, d (i, j) represents the weight between the nodes i-j, and d (i, j) is 0 if the nodes i-j are not connected.
The above-described embodiment is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention in any way, and other variations and modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the invention as set forth in the claims.
Claims (1)
1. A hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e;
the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range;
the accident types include: leaks, accidents only, fires and explosions;
converting the road network into a undirected network node map, connecting the communication road sections among the nodes by taking road junction points as nodes in the road network, and setting the road length among the nodes as the basic weight of the road sections among the nodes;
building a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risks based on the domino road risk value;
the domino road risk value is derived based on a road risk value and a domino risk value;
the road risk value is:
R(i,j)'＝l*p*(m1*πr1 2+m2*πr2 2+m3*πr3 2+m4*πr4 2)*pop (3-1)
wherein R is(i,j)' is a risk value of a road section i-j, wherein i represents a starting node mark number, j represents an ending node mark number, and l represents a road length of the road section i-j; p represents the probability of a traffic accident occurring on a road segment i-j; r is1For the influence range of the leakage of Accident 1, m1The weight occupied by the leakage for accident 1; r is2For Accident 2 only the accident influence range, m2Accident 2 is only weighted by accident; r is3Accident 3 fire impact Range, m3Accident 3, the fire, by weight; r is4For Accident 4 explosion impact Range, m4Weight accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area;
the calculation formula of the domino risk value is as follows:
wherein l' is the length of the section which can cause domino accidents of the section i-j; l is the length of the i-j road section; r is the influence radius of the accident; q is a correction factor;
PDthe probability of dynamic domino risk accident is the probability of accident occurrence of a hazard source B if a hazardous chemical substance vehicle A has an accident;
a danger source B exists near the i-j road section, and when the dangerous chemical vehicle A passes through the i-j road section, the moving range of the distance d between the dangerous chemical vehicle A and the B along with the A is (d)1,d2) (ii) a r represents the radius of the accident influence range of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A;
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A enters the range of l', when d is less than r, the dangerous source B is in the influence range of the accident of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A, PD＞0；
When the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A is positioned on the other road sections d & gt r, the dangerous source B is out of the influence range of the accident occurrence of A, and P isD＝0；
Calculating a domino road risk value:
when a fire accident and an explosion accident occur, the risk of causing a domino accident exists, and a calculation formula of a road risk value added with the domino risk, namely the domino road risk value is obtained by combining the formulas (3-1), (3-2) and (3-3) and is as follows:
wherein: r(i,j)"means the i-j road segment risk value, l, of the risk of joining domino1' Accident 3 fire in this road segment length of road segment that could cause domino accident; l'2The length of the section of the road where the accident 4 explosion may cause a domino accident; pD1Probability of a fire causing domino accident for the road segment 3; pD2Probability of domino accident caused by explosion 4 in the road section; r is5(ii) domino accident impact range for accident 3 fire; r is6(ii) domino accident impact range due to accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area;
the dynamic domino risk hazardous chemical vehicle path planning model comprises the following steps:
the model takes the minimum risk value for realizing the planned path as an objective function;
the first constraint condition represents that the path starts from a starting point i-s and ends when a terminating node j-e, and the basis weights of the road sections passing through the path are accumulated;
the second constraint condition represents that the road section basis weight is constrained by the connectivity matrix D;
the third constraint condition represents the risk value accumulation of the passed road section;
the connectivity matrix D:
wherein n is the number of nodes of the undirected network node graph, d (i, j) represents the weight between the nodes i-j, and d (i, j) is 0 if the nodes i-j are not connected.
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