CN109086914A - Harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk - Google Patents
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Abstract
Harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk, comprising: obtain road network and path planning relevant parameter between harmful influence vehicle transport starting point s and terminal e；The path planning relevant parameter includes: the density of population on each road section length of road network, the probability of each section generation traffic accident, accident pattern, all types of accident weights and the radius of influence and accident impact range periphery；The accident pattern includes: leakage, only accident, fire and explosion；Undirected networks node diagram is converted by the road network, using road joint as the node in Undirected networks node diagram, connects and is connected to section between each node, link length between each node is set as to the basic weight in section between each node；Based on domino road value-at-risk, the harmful influence vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risk is established.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to harmful influence transport fields, in particular to the harmful influence vehicle route rule based on dynamic domino risk
Draw modeling method.
Background technique
In in the past few decades, the quantity that the rapid development of chemical industry urges harmful influence transport is quicklyd increase and increasingly
Frequently, its grown place of the harmful influence more than 95% and use ground are different, this is dependent on strange land transport.And among this, about
80% depends on land transportation, and the most important thing is accounted in harmful influence transport, and the safety problem of harmful influence transport also becomes increasingly conspicuous.It is relating to
The link for partially occurring in transport and in the accident of harmful influence, more than 40%.Harmful influence shipping accident have " low probability,
The characteristics of high risk ", can not only cause environment permanent and be difficult to the influence repaired, also be easy to cause weight once accident occurs
Big casualties directly generates huge economic loss.However, only considering in previous research for damage sequence
Damage sequence, and seldom consider that the second accidents consequences such as explosive fire accident occur.
Lead to generate catastrophic cascade accident in accident communication process and is known as Domino effect, the Sai Wei that European Union promulgates
Suo Faling provides authoritative foundation to pay attention to chemical industrial park domino accident, and the decree is respectively at 1996,2003,2012
Year is revised three times, must be added to the evaluation of domino risk in file in the risk assessment of regulation chemical industrial park.With
The increase of storage and process device and the density of population, in chemical industry concentration zones, Domino effect is become more and more important.To more meters
It is greatly the Communication Research for domino risk in chemical industrial park in the research of promise risk, harmful influence vehicle is being transported
It is a mobile danger source during defeated, around it when dangerous source, also there is the risk for causing domino accident.Danger
While accident occurs for change product vehicle, it is also possible to the damage sequence of explosion or fire, accident impact range and injury can be caused
Radius can greatly increase.If there are other danger sources in its vicinity, the harmful influence storage tank as existing for chemical industrial park itself, by road
Gas station, or there are other harmful influence vehicles or coal combustible materials around harmful influence vehicle in such as the first accident, very
It is possible that the Domino effect of accident can be caused, more serious destruction is caused.The prior art is directed to harmful influence vehicle path planning
The Risk Calculation of problem concentrates on the consequence assessment for harmful influence vehicle occurring traffic accident, and influence factor concentrates on road like
Condition, weather, the conventional factors such as population do not consider the Domino effect of accident.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the present invention to: harmful influence vehicle route is planned, considers that harmful influence vehicle was transporting
Cause the risk and road tradition risk of Domino effect in journey, reduce a possibility that accident causes domino accident effect,
Provide a kind of harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk.
The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problems is: the harmful influence vehicle based on dynamic domino risk
Path planning modeling method, comprising:
Road network and path planning relevant parameter between acquisition harmful influence vehicle transport starting point s and terminal e；
The path planning relevant parameter include: each road section length of road network, each section occur traffic accident probability,
The density of population on accident pattern, all types of accident weights and the radius of influence and accident impact range periphery；
The accident pattern includes: leakage, only accident, fire and explosion；
Undirected networks node diagram is converted by the road network, using road joint as in Undirected networks node diagram
Node connects and is connected to section between each node, and link length between each node is set as to the basic weight in section between each node；
Based on domino road value-at-risk, the harmful influence vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risk is established.
Further, the domino road value-at-risk is based on road value-at-risk and domino value-at-risk obtains.
Further, the road value-at-risk:
Wherein R(i, j)' it is section i-j value-at-risk, i indicates that start node label, j indicate that terminal node label, l indicate road
Section i-j link length；P indicates that the probability of traffic accident occurs in section i-j；r1For the coverage that accident 1 leaks, m1For thing
Therefore 1 leaks shared weight；r2For the only accident impact range of accident 2, m2For weight shared by accident 2 only accident；r33 fire shadow of accident
Ring range, m3For weight shared by 3 fire of accident；r4For the explosion coverage of accident 4, m4It explodes shared weight for accident 4；Pop is
The density of population on accident impact range periphery.
Further, the calculation formula of the domino value-at-risk are as follows:
Wherein, l ' is the road section length that the section i-j may cause domino accident；L is i-j road section length；R is accident
The radius of influence；Q is modifying factor；
PDFor dynamic domino risk accidents probability, if referring to, accident occurs for harmful influence vehicle A, causes danger source B and occurs
The probability of accident；
Dangerous source B near the section i-j, when harmful influence vehicle A is by section i-j, the distance between B d with A shifting
Dynamic variation range is (d1, d2)；R indicates that the radius of accident impact range occurs for harmful influence vehicle A；
Harmful influence vehicle A enters in l ' range, and as d < r, the influence model of accident occurs in harmful influence vehicle A for danger source B
In enclosing, PD> 0；
When harmful influence vehicle A is located at remaining section d > r, danger source B is outside the coverage that accident occurs for A, PD=0.
Further, the calculating domino road value-at-risk:
When fire incident and explosion accident occurs, there is the risk for causing domino accident, in conjunction with formula (3-1) (3-2)
(3-3) obtains the road value-at-risk i.e. calculation formula of domino road value-at-risk that domino risk is added are as follows:
Wherein: R(i, j)" indicate the section the i-j value-at-risk that domino risk is added, l '13 fire of accident may in the section
Cause the road section length of domino accident；l′2Accident 4, which is exploded, in the section may cause the road section length of domino accident；PD1
For the probability that 3 fire of accident causes domino accident occurs in the section；PD2Cause more meters for the explosion of accident 4 occurs in the section
The probability of promise accident；r5For domino accident impact range caused by 3 fire of accident；r6Domino thing caused by exploding for accident 4
Therefore coverage；Pop is the density of population on accident impact range periphery.
Further, the harmful influence vehicle path planning model of the dynamic domino risk:
The minimum objective function of value-at-risk of model planning path to realize；
First constraint condition indicates path by starting point i=s, terminates when to terminal node j=e, during which passed through
The basic weight for crossing section is cumulative；
Second constraint condition indicates that section basis weight is constrained by connection matrix D；
Third constraint condition indicate institute by section value-at-risk add up；
The connection matrix D:
Wherein, n is the number of nodes of the Undirected networks node diagram, and d (i, j) indicates the weight between node i-j, if i-j
Between be not connected to then d (i, j) be 0.
Substantial effect of the invention: the meter of dynamic domino risk is added in the path planning problem of harmful influence by the present invention
It calculates, considers that harmful influence vehicle causes the risk of Domino effect and road tradition risk, reduction accident to be drawn during transportation
A possibility that sending out domino accident effect, establishes the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling side based on dynamic domino risk
Method, risk can be established using this method lower, the higher harmful influence vehicle path planning model of safety coefficient.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the Undirected networks node diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is dynamic domino risk computation model figure of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Below by specific embodiment, and in conjunction with attached drawing, technical scheme of the present invention will be further explained in detail.
Harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk, comprising:
Step 1: obtaining road network and path planning relevant parameter between harmful influence vehicle transport starting point s and terminal e；
The path planning relevant parameter include: each road section length of road network, each section occur traffic accident probability,
The density of population on accident pattern, all types of accident weights and the radius of influence and accident impact range periphery；
In traditional road value-at-risk calculates, it is contemplated that the influence area of accident is sent out in harmful influence transportational process
Raw accident can be divided into leakage, only accident, fire, and four seed types of exploding respectively correspond accident 1, accident 2, accident 3, accident 4；
Step 2: as shown in Figure 1, Undirected networks node diagram is converted by the road network, using road joint as nothing
Node into network node figure connects and is connected to section between each node, by link length between each node be set as each node it
Between section basic weight；
Step 3: calculating road value-at-risk；
Road value-at-risk:
Wherein R(i, j)' it is section i-j value-at-risk, i indicates that start node label, j indicate that terminal node label, l indicate road
Section i-j link length；P indicates that the probability of traffic accident occurs in section i-j；r1For the coverage that accident 1 leaks, m1For thing
Therefore 1 leaks shared weight；r2For the only accident impact range of accident 2, m2For weight shared by accident 2 only accident；r33 fire shadow of accident
Ring range, m3For weight shared by 3 fire of accident；r4For the explosion coverage of accident 4, m4It explodes shared weight for accident 4；Pop is
The density of population on accident impact range periphery.
Step 4: calculating domino value-at-risk；
The calculation formula of domino value-at-risk are as follows:
As shown in Fig. 2, l ' is the road section length that the section i-j may cause domino accident；L is i-j road section length；R is
The radius of influence of accident；Q is modifying factor；Calculate coefficient when domino value-at-riskIt will can cause the road of domino accident
Segment length is l ' divided by total road section length l, i.e., average to the risk for the part way that can cause domino accident in section entirety.
PDFor dynamic domino risk accidents probability, if referring to, accident occurs for harmful influence vehicle A, causes danger source B and occurs
The probability of accident；
Dangerous source B near the section i-j, when harmful influence vehicle A is by section i-j, the distance between B d with A shifting
Dynamic variation range is (d1, d2)；R indicates that the radius of accident impact range occurs for harmful influence vehicle A；
Harmful influence vehicle A enters in l ' range, and as d < r, the influence model of accident occurs in harmful influence vehicle A for danger source B
In enclosing, PD> 0；
When harmful influence vehicle A is located at remaining section d > r, danger source B is outside the coverage that accident occurs for A, PD=0.
Step 5: calculating domino road value-at-risk；
When fire incident and explosion accident occurs, there is the risk for causing domino accident, in conjunction with formula (3-1) (3-2)
(3-3) obtains the road value-at-risk i.e. calculation formula of domino road value-at-risk that domino risk is added are as follows:
Wherein: R(i, j)" indicate the section the i-j value-at-risk that domino risk is added, l '13 fire of accident may in the section
Cause the road section length of domino accident；l′2Accident 4, which is exploded, in the section may cause the road section length of domino accident；PD1
For the probability that 3 fire of accident causes domino accident occurs in the section；PD2Cause more meters for the explosion of accident 4 occurs in the section
The probability of promise accident；r5For domino accident impact range caused by 3 fire of accident；r6Domino thing caused by exploding for accident 4
Therefore coverage；Pop is the density of population on accident impact range periphery.
Step 6: being based on the domino road value-at-risk, establish the harmful influence vehicle route based on dynamic domino risk
Plan model.
The harmful influence vehicle path planning model of dynamic domino risk are as follows:
The minimum objective function of value-at-risk of model planning path to realize；
First constraint condition indicates path by starting point i=s, terminates when to terminal node j=e, during which passed through
The basic weight for crossing section is cumulative；
Second constraint condition indicates that section basis weight is constrained by connection matrix D；
Third constraint condition indicate institute by section value-at-risk add up；
The connection matrix D:
Wherein, n is the number of nodes of the Undirected networks node diagram, and d (i, j) indicates the weight between node i-j, if i-j
Between be not connected to then d (i, j) be 0.
Embodiment described above is a kind of preferable scheme of the invention, not makees limit in any form to the present invention
System, there are also other variants and remodeling on the premise of not exceeding the technical scheme recorded in the claims.
Claims (6)
1. the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk characterized by comprising
Road network and path planning relevant parameter between acquisition harmful influence vehicle transport starting point s and terminal e；
The path planning relevant parameter includes: each road section length of road network, the probability of each section generation traffic accident, accident
The density of population on type, all types of accident weights and the radius of influence and accident impact range periphery；
The accident pattern includes: leakage, only accident, fire and explosion；
Undirected networks node diagram is converted by the road network, using road joint as the node in road network, connection
It is connected to section between each node, link length between each node is set as to the basic weight in section between each node；
Based on domino road value-at-risk, the harmful influence vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risk is established.
2. the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method according to claim 1 based on dynamic domino risk, special
Sign is that the domino road value-at-risk is based on road value-at-risk and domino value-at-risk obtains.
3. the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method according to claim 1 or 2 based on dynamic domino risk, institute
State road value-at-risk are as follows:
Wherein R(i, j)' it is section i-j value-at-risk, i indicates that start node label, j indicate that terminal node label, l indicate section i-j
Link length；P indicates that the probability of traffic accident occurs in section i-j；r1For the coverage that accident 1 leaks, m1It is let out for accident 1
Leak shared weight；r2For the only accident impact range of accident 2, m2For weight shared by accident 2 only accident；r33 influence of fire model of accident
It encloses, m3For weight shared by 3 fire of accident；r4For the explosion coverage of accident 4, m4It explodes shared weight for accident 4；Pop is accident
The density of population on coverage periphery.
4. the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method according to claim 2 or 3 based on dynamic domino risk,
It is characterized in that, the calculation formula of the domino value-at-risk are as follows:
Wherein, l ' is the road section length that the section i-j may cause domino accident；L is i-j road section length；R is the influence of accident
Radius；Q is modifying factor；
PDFor dynamic domino risk accidents probability, if referring to, accident occurs for harmful influence vehicle A, causes danger source B and accident occurs
Probability；
Dangerous source B near the section i-j, when harmful influence vehicle A is by section i-j, the distance between B d with A mobile change
Change range is (d1, d2)；R indicates that the radius of accident impact range occurs for harmful influence vehicle A；
Harmful influence vehicle A enters in l ' range, and as d < r, the coverage of accident occurs in harmful influence vehicle A for danger source B
It is interior, PD> 0；
When harmful influence vehicle A is located at remaining section d > r, danger source B is outside the coverage that accident occurs for A, PD=0.
5. based on the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling side of dynamic domino risk according to Claims 2 or 3 or 4
Method, which is characterized in that the calculating domino road value-at-risk:
When fire incident and explosion accident occurs, there is the risk for causing domino accident, in conjunction with formula (3-1) (3-2) (3-
3) the road value-at-risk i.e. calculation formula of domino road value-at-risk that domino risk is added, is obtained are as follows:
Wherein: R(i, j)" indicate the section the i-j value-at-risk that domino risk is added, l '13 fire of accident may cause in the section
The road section length of domino accident；l′2Accident 4, which is exploded, in the section may cause the road section length of domino accident；PD1For
The probability that 3 fire of accident causes domino accident occurs for the section；PD2Cause domino thing for the explosion of accident 4 occurs in the section
Therefore probability；r5For domino accident impact range caused by 3 fire of accident；r6Domino accident shadow caused by exploding for accident 4
Ring range；Pop is the density of population on accident impact range periphery.
6. the harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method according to claim 5 based on dynamic domino risk, special
Sign is, the harmful influence vehicle path planning model of the dynamic domino risk:
The minimum objective function of value-at-risk of model planning path to realize；
First constraint condition indicates path by starting point i=s, terminate when to terminal node j=e, during which institute is through passing by one's way
The basic weight of section is cumulative；
Second constraint condition indicates that section basis weight is constrained by connection matrix D；
Third constraint condition indicate institute by section value-at-risk add up；
The connection matrix D:
Wherein, n is the number of nodes of the Undirected networks node diagram, and d (i, j) indicates the weight between node i-j, if between i-j
Not being connected to then d (i, j) is 0.
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| CN109948855A (en) * | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-28 | 杭州电子科技大学 | A kind of isomery harmful influence Transport route planning method with time window |
| CN110503261A (en) * | 2019-08-21 | 2019-11-26 | 东北大学 | A kind of evacuation method for optimizing route causing calamity risk based on dust explosion domino |
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