CN104317848A - GIS (Geographic Information System) overlay analysis-based domino accident influence probability analysis method - Google Patents

Abstract

A GIS (Geographic Information System) overlay analysis-based domino accident influence probability analysis method relates to the technical field of prediction on public safety accidents and solves the technical problem about the analysis on the domino accidents in a chemical industrial area. The method starts from a danger source accident and the geological position where the danger source accident is positioned, each danger source is classified according to accident types, different accident diffusion models are built, the affected danger probability range after the accident occurs is calculated, gridding calculation is performed on a danger source research area by combining a GIS geological netting theory, an accident influence probability radius function is built, GIS overlay calculation is performed according to each element and factor of the danger source and environment parameters, an area overlay recursion calculation model is built, a peripheral affected danger source secondary accident weighting value is induced into the recursion calculation model, the weighing ratios of all danger sources are calculated in sequence in a recursion mode, and the maximal probability order that the rest multiple danger sources occur to the domino effect is finally calculated. The method provided by the invention is suitable for the influence probability analysis on the domino accidents in the chemical industrial area.

Description

Based on the domino accident impact probability analysis method of GIS overlay analysis

Technical field

The present invention relates to public safety accident forecast technology, particularly relate to a kind of technology of the domino accident impact probability analysis method based on GIS overlay analysis.

Background technology

A large amount of dangerous matter sources has been concentrated because of relation of the supply in Craft in Chemical Industrial Area, once have an accident, very easily the chain accident of domino occurs.As shown in Figure 3, when any one the dangerous matter sources device in Craft in Chemical Industrial Area has an accident, can peripheral devices be caused by heat radiation, shock wave or fragment etc. and domino accident occur, when dangerous matter sources device enormous amount in Craft in Chemical Industrial Area time, issuable total domino scene quantity also gets more and more.

Abroad to the research comparatively morning of Domino effect, just require that member state strictly must limit the enterprise of contingent Domino effect accident by bill as far back as EU Council in 1996.Domesticly Study on Domino Effects relatively abroad to be started late, until 2006 just occur correlative study article.Current main research is as follows:

1) various domino hazard model research

Study from Domino effect accident hazard source, Domino effect expansion because of have fire, blast, Toxicant Leak three types and all types of between interaction.By statistics, Khan FI in 2000 and Abbasi SA show that fire failure main Types has pond fire, jet bubble reactor, fireball, and give the mathematical model of fire failure critical quantity.Domestic scholars also gives to the hazard model of explosion wave and fragment the threshold value causing second accident.

2) based on the Domino effect analysis of empirical probability

Empirical probability analysis is by the difference to various object element destructible degree, calculates its probability function, the probability of happening of reflection Domino effect.Comprise the research to target probability of damage, domino accident scene affects the research of probability, and the content such as the research of the random probability of happening of Domino effect.If German scholar Hauptmanns U is by adopting Monte Carlo (Monte-Cario) the methods analyst lower probability curve that can arrive different distance of the random impelling condition of bomb fragments.

Above domino hazard model is mainly research object from accident pattern and different device with analyzing, and analysis accident spreading probability model, it is basic to be that domino research is set up.But chemical industrial park due to enterprise's distribution randomness in regional context very large, once have an accident, single contingency occurrence probability being sometimes difficult to enterprise in garden from theoretical model carries out the analysis of real-time quantitative.

Summary of the invention

For the defect existed in above-mentioned prior art, technical matters to be solved by this invention is to provide a kind of analysis effectively can carrying out real-time quantitative to Domino effect accident, can carry out the domino accident impact probability analysis method based on GIS overlay analysis of effectively prediction to the contingent accident in chemical industrial park.

In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, a kind of domino accident impact probability analysis method based on GIS overlay analysis provided by the present invention, it is characterized in that, concrete steps are as follows:

1) set all dangerous matter sources device quantity in analyzed area as M, to this M dangerous matter sources device, classify according to contingent accident pattern, set up the accident Extending probability model of each dangerous matter sources device;

2) carry out accident Extending probability model to each the dangerous matter sources device in analyzed area to calculate, calculate each dangerous matter sources device parametric t and change function affecting diffusion zone of changing in time, obtaining M affects diffusion zone;

3) utilize generalized information system, carry out GIS combination superposition calculation to the diffusion zone that affects of the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device, obtaining R sheet affects diffusion zone, has R≤M;

4) by R sheet, the every a slice affected in diffusion zone affects diffusion zone, carries out GIS and chooses and superpose, obtain R group domino hazard source with the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device;

5) research of domino accident impact is carried out to each group domino hazard source, calculate the weight of each dangerous matter sources device generation second accident, thus calculate the maximum probability domino order in this group domino hazard source;

6) affect diffusion zone for each, this is affected diffusion zone entirety and carry out the calculating of regional diffusion probability model as unified dangerous matter sources, finally model computational analysis is completed to domino accident hazard sources all in analyzed area.

Domino accident impact probability analysis method based on GIS overlay analysis provided by the invention, combines domino spreading probability model with GIS region overlay analysis, forms a kind of new domino accident impact probability model.This model is main GIS parameter with distance, calculate the accident impact probability between each dangerous matter sources, model can be combined with regional context by GIS, effectively Domino effect accident be carried out to the analysis of real-time quantitative, effectively can predict the contingent accident in chemical industrial park.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram of simulating 5 dangerous matter sources devices based on the generalized information system in the domino accident impact probability analysis method of GIS overlay analysis of the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 2 be the embodiment of the present invention based on the schematic diagram two dangerous matter sources devices being carried out to the research of domino accident impact relation in the domino accident impact probability analysis method of GIS overlay analysis;

Fig. 3 is Craft in Chemical Industrial Area domino accident generation process principle figure.

Embodiment

Illustrate below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and be described in further detail embodiments of the invention, but the present embodiment is not limited to the present invention, every employing analog structure of the present invention and similar change thereof, all should list protection scope of the present invention in.

A kind of domino accident impact probability analysis method based on GIS overlay analysis that the embodiment of the present invention provides, it is characterized in that, concrete steps are as follows:

1) set all dangerous matter sources device quantity in analyzed area as M, to this M dangerous matter sources device, classify according to contingent accident pattern, set up the accident Extending probability model of each dangerous matter sources device;

Different dangerous matter sources devices has different spreading probability models and correlation computations parameter, as the power parameter produced when reserves, reservoir type, dangerous material type etc. affect dangerous matter sources device explosion or fire, by carrying out identification to the dangerous matter sources in analyzed area, the dangerous matter sources device quantity in analyzed area can be determined;

As shown in Figure 1, such as, [a, b, c is gone out by identification of dangerous source in analyzed area, d, e] totally 5 dangerous matter sources devices, suppose that these 5 dangerous matter sources devices are hydrostatic column, contingent accident pattern is pond fire, according to the historical data of 5 dangerous matter sources devices, use least-square analysis can show that the accident Extending probability model of distinct device is:

Normal pressure cylindrical vertical container:

Y＝12.54-1.847ln(t)；

ln(t)＝-1.128ln(I)-2.667×10 ^-5×V+9.877；

High pressure cylindrical horizontal container:

Y＝12.54-1.847ln(t)；

ln(t)＝-0.947ln(I)+8.835×V ^0.032；

Wherein, t is the out-of-service time of dangerous matter sources device, and I is the caloradiance acting on destination apparatus, and V is volume or the volume of dangerous matter sources device;

2) carry out accident Extending probability model to each the dangerous matter sources device in analyzed area to calculate, calculate each dangerous matter sources device parametric t and change function affecting diffusion zone of changing in time, obtaining M affects diffusion zone;

Such as, first dangerous matter sources device a has an accident, and because accident pattern is pond fire, if the radius of liquid pool is L, when the projecting environment temperature of the comburant boiling point in liquid pool, on liquid-pool surface, unit area burning rate is:

$\frac{\mathrm{dm}}{\mathrm{dt}}=\frac{0.001H_c}{C_p(T_b-T_0)+H};$

Wherein, for unit surface area burning rate, H _cfor liquid calory burning, C _pfor the specific heat capacity at constant pressure of liquid, T _bfor boiling point of liquid, T ₀for environment temperature, H is liquid heat of evaporation;

When the boiling point of liquid in liquid pool is lower than (as pressurized liquefied gas or cryogenic liquefaction gas) during environment temperature, on liquid-pool surface, the burning rate of unit area is:

$\frac{\mathrm{dm}}{\mathrm{dt}}=\frac{0.001H_c}{H};$

The total thermal radiation flux Q released during liquid pool burning is:

$Q=({\mathrm{\πr}}^2+2\mathrm{\πrh})\frac{\mathrm{dm}}{\mathrm{dt}}\mathrm{\η}{H}_c[{\left(\frac{\mathrm{dm}}{\mathrm{dt}}\right)}^{0.61}+1];$

Wherein, r is radius of liquid pool, and h is flame height, and η is efficiency factor, and its span is 0.13 to 0.35;

Suppose that radiations heat energy all sends from the tiny spherical surface at liquid pool center, then distance liquid pool center a certain distance people by heat radiation to intensity I be:

$I=\frac{\mathrm{Q\λ}}{4\mathrm{\π}{x}^2};$

Wherein, Q is total thermal radiation flux, and λ is air conduction coefficient, and x is that object-point arrives liquid pool centre distance;

The relation between caloradiance and radiation length can be drawn, the critical value Q of the occurred pool fire that is heated according to hold-up vessel from above formula _l, the dangerous radiation radius L of 5 dangerous matter sources can be calculated;

3) utilize generalized information system (Geographic Information System), carry out GIS combination superposition calculation to the diffusion zone that affects of the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device, obtaining R sheet affects diffusion zone, has R≤M;

4) by R sheet, the every a slice affected in diffusion zone affects diffusion zone, carries out GIS and chooses and superpose, obtain R group domino hazard source with the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device;

The formula solving domino hazard source is:

$E_{(i,j)}=\underset{0}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{\mathrm{EDA}}{D_{(i,j)}};$

Wherein, E _{(i, j)}for accident unit factor of influence, D _{(i, j)}for the distance at region point (i, j) distance accident center, N is the dangerous matter sources quantity had an accident, and EDA is accident cell influence diffusion zone;

5) research of domino accident impact is carried out to each group domino hazard source, calculate the weight of each dangerous matter sources device generation second accident, thus calculate the maximum probability domino order in this group domino hazard source;

The maximum probability domino order circular in domino hazard source is:

Using accident invasin AEF as second accident weight, utilize generalized information system to carry out invasin GIS superposition according to each dangerous matter sources device position, then the accident suffered by the Ai of domino accident hazard source spreads total factor and is: i is wherein other domino hazard sources in same group, j is accident pattern (heat radiation, shock wave, fragment), this group domino hazard source maximum possible second accident order [A2 is drawn according to weighted value, A3, A1 ... ], each group domino hazard source Ni is calculated as a whole, calculate the relation between each group of domino hazard source Ni and second accident order [N2, N3, N1 ... ], recursive calculation is until each dangerous matter sources device and each group of domino dangerous matter sources are traversed;

As shown in Figure 2, such as, GIS map calculates the dangerous radiation radius L of all dangerous matter sources devices, and adopt GIS combination superposition to calculate, obtain two panels domino associated region A, B, carrying out domino in region a affects probability analysis, supposes dangerous matter sources device a first occurred pool fire, so for these two dangerous matter sources devices of b, c, the heat radiation from dangerous matter sources device a be subject to respectively is Q _b, Q _c, the distance because of c and a is greater than the distance of c and b, therefore Q _b> Q _c, so in region a, after dangerous matter sources device a has an accident, the domino order of maximum possible is [a, c, b], calculates equally in the B of region, and maximum possible domino order is [d, e];

Thus we learn, when dangerous matter sources device a has an accident, that first domino chain reaction occurs is dangerous matter sources device c and b, along with the continuous expansion of pond fire range of scatter, also Domino effect can be there is in dangerous matter sources device d and e, in skilled emergency response and emergency management and rescue basis, hazardous chemical supply between fast shut-off region A and region B, can effectively cut off domino accident, in the A of region, can second accident be there is equally in dangerous matter sources device b and c, but the probability that dangerous matter sources device c occurs is higher than dangerous matter sources device b, therefore need preferentially to cut off dangerous matter sources device c to contact with extraneous, and actively develop rescue, thus provide reliable theoretical foundation for reducing property loss and reducing casualties,

6) affect diffusion zone for each, this is affected diffusion zone entirety and carry out the calculating of regional diffusion probability model as unified dangerous matter sources, finally model computational analysis is completed to domino accident hazard sources all in analyzed area.

The analytical approach of the embodiment of the present invention, can obtain when any one dangerous matter sources device has an accident from analysis result, the maximum probability order of domino accident is there is in analyzed area, thus be accident handling, emergency management and rescue, hidden troubles removing, social risk calculates and the prevention of Domino effect provides important evidence, when there is M dangerous matter sources device in analyzed area, suppose that one of them dangerous matter sources device has an accident, thus pass through heat radiation, shock wave or fragment etc. cause peripheral devices and domino accident occur, for the accident pattern that all the other M-1 device hypothesis most probables occur, and only there is the accident of 1 type in each device, the number of the domino scene of k device generation second accident is then had to be:

$C_{M-1}^k=\frac{(M-1)!}{(M-1-k)k!}$

Wherein, for the number of the domino scene of k device generation second accident, k≤M-1;

Visible, when dangerous matter sources device enormous amount in analyzed area time, issuable total domino scene quantity also gets more and more.

In the embodiment of the present invention, described generalized information system (Geographic Information System) is prior art, generalized information system is a kind of computer based instrument, it can carry out treatment and analysis (in brief to spatial information, that with event, figure and analysis are become to the phenomenon that the earth exists), generalized information system integrates the visualization effect of this for map uniqueness and geography-analysis function and general database manipulation (such as inquire about and statistical study etc.), generalized information system and the maximum difference of other infosystems are the storage administration analyses to spatial information, thus make its explanation event in the public widely and individual enterprises and institutions, predict the outcome, in plan strategy etc., there is practical value.Overlay analysis is a very important spatial analysis functions in generalized information system, refer under uniform spaces frame of reference, by a series of set operations carried out two data, produce the process of new data, overlay analysis has following several types: visual information superposes, point superposes with polygon, line superposes with polygon, polygon superposes, raster map layer superposition.

Claims (1)

1., based on a domino accident impact probability analysis method for GIS overlay analysis, it is characterized in that, concrete steps are as follows:

1) set all dangerous matter sources device quantity in analyzed area as M, to this M dangerous matter sources device, classify according to contingent accident pattern, set up the accident Extending probability model of each dangerous matter sources device;

2) carry out accident Extending probability model to each the dangerous matter sources device in analyzed area to calculate, calculate each dangerous matter sources device parametric t and change function affecting diffusion zone of changing in time, obtaining M affects diffusion zone;

3) utilize generalized information system, carry out GIS combination superposition calculation to the diffusion zone that affects of the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device, obtaining R sheet affects diffusion zone, has R≤M;

4) by R sheet, the every a slice affected in diffusion zone affects diffusion zone, carries out GIS and chooses and superpose, obtain R group domino hazard source with the M in analyzed area dangerous matter sources device;

5) research of domino accident impact is carried out to each group domino hazard source, calculate the weight of each dangerous matter sources device generation second accident, thus calculate the maximum probability domino order in this group domino hazard source;

6) affect diffusion zone for each, this is affected diffusion zone entirety and carry out the calculating of regional diffusion probability model as unified dangerous matter sources, finally model computational analysis is completed to domino accident hazard sources all in analyzed area.