CN105868884A - Evaluation method for domino accident prevention of petrochemical storage tank area - Google Patents

Evaluation method for domino accident prevention of petrochemical storage tank area Download PDF

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CN105868884A
CN105868884A CN201610134009.0A CN201610134009A CN105868884A CN 105868884 A CN105868884 A CN 105868884A CN 201610134009 A CN201610134009 A CN 201610134009A CN 105868884 A CN105868884 A CN 105868884A
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domino
domino accident
tank area
accident
fuzzy
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刘培
宋文华
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Tianjin Huateng Polytechnic Safety Science and Technology Consulting Co., Ltd.
Tianjin Long'an Technology Development Co., Ltd.
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Tianjin Polytechnic University
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Abstract

The invention provides an evaluation method for domino accident prevention of a petrochemical storage tank area. The evaluation method comprises the steps of constructing a hierarchical structure of an occurrence possibility of a domino accident cause of a tank area unit, and quantifying the domino accident cause through hierarchical calculation; constructing a grading guide and scoring criteria of fuzzy operation membership degrees, and effectively combining a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with an LEC process to solve the problem of difficulty in quantifying an L value with an expert experience method during occurrence of an domino accident under the combined action of multiple factors; determining a danger level of the domino accident through a fuzzy hierarchy-LEC process formed by combination, and clearly determining key points of domino accident prevention of the storage tank area unit; and finally according to an evaluation result, analyzing the domino accident cause and proposing targeted suggestions and prevention measures for avoiding the blindness of domino accident prevention and ensuring safety running of the petrochemical storage tank area.

Description

A kind of evaluation methodology of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention
Technical field
The present invention relates to accident prevention field, petrochemical industry tank area, particularly relate to a kind of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention Evaluation methodology.
Technical background
Petrochemical industry tank area is as using the storage device of various raw material and product in production process, and its storage substance classes is numerous Many and mostly be inflammable and explosive chemicals, single tank reserves scale is big, and storage tank quantity is many and centralized arrangement, adds tank field explosion danger ring Border is complicated, petrochemical industry tank area once breaking out of fire blast initial incident, it is easy to trigger Domino effect, formed " tank tank is connected, Sea of flame " situation, threaten enterprise safety of life and property, impact society stable development.
The most ripe to the research of Domino effect, but the research of Chinese scholars lays particular emphasis on mostly to domino The research of the consequences such as the probabilistic model of effect, route of transmission and Risk Calculation, lacks in achievement in research domino accident prevention Technique study so that the factors causing disaster of domino accident is difficult to quantitatively be embodied, also cannot determine research unit domino The danger classes of accident, it is impossible to the decision-making foundation providing domino accident prevention for enterprise, is unfavorable for the safety management of enterprise.
It is therefore desirable to set up the evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention, quantitatively evaluating unit is many Minot accident factors causing disaster, determines domino Accident-causing, evaluates the danger classes of domino accident, formulates domino accident pre- Anti-control measures, reach the purpose cutting down domino accident risk, prevention domino accident occurs.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide the evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area unit domino accident prevention, commented by this Valency method can specify the emphasis of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention, makes safety management be become the most pre-from process afterwards Anti-.
Fuzzy hierarchy analysis by synthesis method is a kind of analysis method carrying out decision-making for multifactor event, and it is divided by level Analysis method determines that in assessment indicator system, each index is relative to the weight of upper level index, then evaluates collection by structure, through fuzzy fortune Calculate and obtain the total score of decision objective and respective level.Fuzzy hierarchy analysis by synthesis method is a kind of semiquantitative analysis method, The subjective impact of people can be reduced to a certain extent；It addition, when data are the most full-time, and the experience of expert can be quantified by it.
LEC evaluation methodology is safety of America expert's Graham Sodd method of investing and Jin Ni puts forward for weigh people when operation latent A kind of dangerous method.The method by the probability that accident occurs is defined as L, the frequency being exposed in hazardous environment Numerous degree is defined as E, and the consequence that accident produces is defined as C, and the classes of dangerous degree that accident occurs is defined as D, wherein D be L, E, The product of C three (value of L, E, C, D be shown in Table respectively 1, table 2).LEC assessment method is commonly used to operation unit is carried out danger Evaluating, its method is simple, workable, is conducive to quickly grasping the dangerous situation of operation unit.
Table 1 L, E, C value table
Mark Accident possibility occurrence (L) Mark Expose frequency (E) Mark Damage sequence (C)
10 Can be contemplated completely 10 Expose continuously 100 Calamity, many people are dead
6 Quite may 6 Working time every day exposes 40 Disaster, number people is dead
3 May, but infrequently 3 Weekly exposure 15 Very serious, a people is dead
1 May be little, the most surprisingly 2 Monthly expose 7 Seriously, severely injured
0.5 The most impossible, but it is contemplated that 1 Expose several times every year 3 Great, disable
0.2 It is very unlikely to 0.5 The rarest exposure 1 Noticeable
0.1 Actual impossible
Table 2 danger classes
Mark Classification Danger classes (D)
＞ 320 V It is in extreme danger, it is impossible to continue operation
160～320 IV Highly dangerous, need to rectify and improve immediately
70～160 III Notable dangerous, need rectification
20～70 II General dangerous, should be noted that
＜ 20 I Fairly good risk, can accept
Above two method has mainly been carried out new by the evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention Expanding and be combined with, forming a kind of evaluation methodology, this evaluation methodology mainly comprises following step:
(1) hierarchical structure of structure petrochemical industry tank area unit domino accident factors causing disaster possibility occurrence
Petrochemical industry tank area domino accident is often multifactor coefficient, has the process characteristic of tank field, cloth Office's design, fire-proof and explosion-proof measure, the amount of stored substance, material intrinsic property and the safety management etc. of personnel, various factors rail The incorrect cross-contact of mark can cause domino accident.By the safety inspection situation of tank field unit, routine safety are patrolled Inspection record, checking maintenance record, tank field accident account and the safety education and training score of the examination etc., set up by after expert's comprehensive discussion Meet the hierarchical chart of domino accident possibility occurrence under the Multifactor Decision Making of tank field practical situation.Layer by structure Aggregated(particle) structure, it is possible to achieve by the domino accident factors causing disaster classification analysis of various complexity, utilize level computing, quantify each cause calamity The weight of factor, specifies the weak link of domino Accident-causing.
(2) classification guide and the score basis of fuzzy operation degree of membership are built
In order to Fuzzy AHP and LEC method are effectively combined, refer in the classification building fuzzy operation degree of membership herein South and score basis during, fuzzy evaluation collection is taken accordingly 7 grades, i.e. evaluate collection=(entirely possible, quite possibility, can Can, Ke Neng little, the most impossible, it is very unlikely to, actual impossible), its value size is consistent with the value table (being shown in Table 1) of L, Making H is the score of each grade in Comment gathers V, i.e. H=(10,6,3,1,0.5,0.2,0.1).Available storage tank after fuzzy operation The PTS of district's domino accident factors causing disaster possibility occurrence, replaces the value of L in LEC calculating process with this score value, from And solve method of expertise when multiple factors causing disaster acts on lower generation domino accident pattern jointly and be difficult to specifically quantify to L value Problem.
(3) fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method determines domino accident hazard grade
The value of L is obtained by step (2)；Expose daily the patrolling and examining and checking maintenance record of value Main Basis of frequency E, Value table in conjunction with E is given by expert advice；The matter content of the value Main Basis tank field of damage sequence C and character, in conjunction with C Value table be given by expert advice.Finally L, E, C value substitution LEC operational formula i.e. can be obtained after computing this tank field to send out Danger classes D of raw domino accident.
(4) analysis of domino Accident-causing and the proposition of measure
By fuzzy hierarchy-LEC operation result, launch domino Accident Causes Analysis, and the domino of being proposed for property Accident prevention suggestion and measure, it is to avoid the generation of domino accident.
The invention have the advantage that the advantage making full use of Fuzzy AHP and LEC method is combined integrated, structure Fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method can quantify complicated and diversified domino accident factors causing disaster, specifies domino Accident-causing, determines many Minot accident hazard grade, evaluation result makes the weak link of tank field domino accident prevention very clear, decreases many meters The blindness of promise accident prevention, the conclusion making safety evaluation is the most reasonable, science.
Accompanying drawing explanation
The hierarchical chart of certain petrochemical industry tank area tank entities domino accident possibility occurrence.
Detailed description of the invention:
Below with the evaluation methodology of the petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention of the present invention in certain petroleum chemical enterprise tank area It is described further as a example by enforcement.
Step (1) builds the hierarchical chart of this petrochemical industry tank area domino accident factors causing disaster possibility occurrence；
Herein in conjunction with the practical situation of this enterprise's tank entities, respectively from storage the character of material, the defect of safety management, This four some factors lack of standardization of the inefficacy of safety prevention measure and storage tank self layout builds this enterprise's tank field unit Domino factors causing disaster hierarchical structure, as shown in the figure.
Choose 10 experts herein each firsts and seconds of tank field domino Dangerous and Harmful Factors possibility occurrence is commented Valency index compares two-by-two according to the scale of 1-9 in analytic hierarchy process (AHP), it is judged that result composition matrix A i (i=B1, B2... B4； BiFor each first class index relative to the judgment matrix of target indicator), and judgment matrix is carried out consistency check, concrete outcome is such as Under:
Table 3 rule layer discrimination matrix
The judgment matrix of each index factor of table 4
Table 5 B2Safety management constructing matrix
Table 6 B3Safety prevention measure constructing matrix
Table 7 B4Layout constructing matrix
Step (2) builds fuzzy operation evaluation mould and carries out fuzzy synthesis computing；
Choose 10 experts to each evaluation index of this tank area according to built evaluation collection V=(entirely possible, phase When may, may, Ke Neng little, the most impossible, be very unlikely to, actual can not) be evaluated, according to evaluation result and model In the computing formula mentioned obtain the fuzzy evaluating matrix R of each first class indexi(i=B1、B2、B3、B4).Result is as follows:
Table 8 B1Fuzzy evaluating matrix
RB1 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7
C1 0 0 0.3 0.7 0 0 0
C2 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0
C3 0 0 0 0.8 0.2 0 0
B1 0 0 0.252 0.709 0.039 0 0
Table 9 B2Fuzzy evaluating matrix
RB2 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7
C4 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 0
C5 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0
C6 0 0 0.2 0.8 0 0 0
C7 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0
C8 0 0 0.6 0.4 0 0 0
C9 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 0
C10 0 0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0
C11 0 0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0 0
B2 0 0 0.283 0.636 0.069 0.012 0
Table 10 B3Fuzzy evaluating matrix
RB3 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7
C12 0 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0
C13 0 0 0 0.4 0.6 0 0
C14 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0
C15 0 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0
C16 0 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0
C17 0 0 0 0.3 0.7 0 0
B3 0 0 0 0.492 0.481 0.027 0
Table 11 B4Fuzzy evaluating matrix
RB4 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7
C18 0 0 0 0.2 0.8 0 0
C19 0 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0
C20 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.2 0
C21 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2
B4 0 0 0 0.146 0.779 0.064 0.011
By above calculated each first class index relative to the weight vectors of target indicator be WS=(0.117,0.639, 0.177,0.067), can be calculated target indicator for evaluating the membership vector B of collection V according to formula is:
B = W s · R s = ( 0.117 , 0.639 , 0.177 , 0.067 ) 0 0 0.252 0.709 0.039 0 0 0 0 0.283 0.636 0.069 0.012 0 0 0 0 0.492 0.481 0.027 0 0 0 0 0.146 0.778 0.065 0.011
B=(0,0,0.211,0.585,0.186,0.017,0.001) after calculating.Therefore this enterprise's tank area unit domino The probability that accident pattern occurs must be divided into:
F=B HT=1.31
Step (3) fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method determines domino accident hazard grade；
Using LEC method to be evaluated this tank field unit domino accident hazard grade, result is as shown in table 12:
Table 12 tank area unit domino accident hazard grade
The analysis of step (4) domino Accident-causing and the proposition of domino accident prevention
According to evaluation result it can be seen that: this enterprise's tank entities domino accident hazard grade is to be in extreme danger, The possibility occurrence value of domino accident is 1.31, little between probability and may between.
Analysis to this tank area domino Accident-causing mainly includes some:
1) in the composition of this unit domino accident occurrence factor, safety management factor weight is 0.639, storage tank material Weight 0.117, safety prevention measure weight 0.177, storage tank layout designs weight 0.067.This result shows, this tank entities is originally Matter safe design is good, causes the factors causing disaster of domino accident to be mainly from safety management aspect, wherein " third party Unit in charge of construction's safety education not (C8) " to account for weight proportion the highest for factor, is 0.269, and this shows that this tank entities is for cooperation External third-party safety education issue management good, this factor is that enterprise should be paid attention to.
2) storage tank material, safety prevention measure, storage tank layout designs these three first class index subordinate the second level factor in, The factor that weight proportion is the highest is respectively " the inflammable and explosive property of material ", " fireproof blocking is not tight or material is defective ", " tank spacing Do not meet code requirement ", respectively 0.707,0.451,0.511.Wherein, " the inflammable and explosive property of material " belongs to the intrinsic genus of material Property, it is the most eliminable risk；" fireproof blocking is tight or material is defective " and " tank spacing does not meets code requirement " this two Item factor can be by improving the safe fund input of enterprise, the safety program of specification enterprise reduces respectively, and belonging to can Control risk.
3) be there is the power that possibility grade is " probability is little " of domino accident in this enterprise by storage tank physical property (B1) Weight is the highest, is 0.709；The weight that possibility grade is " probability is little " of domino accident is there is by safety management factor (B2) The highest, it is 0.636；The weight that possibility grade is " probability is little " of domino accident is caused by safety prevention measure (B3) Height, is 0.492；The possibility occurrence grade being caused domino accident by storage tank layout designs (B4) is " the most impossible, but permissible Imagination " weight the highest, be 0.779.Still can draw, under the existing safety management of enterprise and design conditions, " storage tank Physical property ", " safety management factor " and " safety prevention measure " remain the master causing domino accident hazard higher ranked Want factor；" the storage tank layout designs " of this enterprise substantially conforms to code requirement.This evaluation result specifies many meters of this unit The emphasis of promise accident prevention.
In conjunction with above domino Accident Causes Analysis, measure that this tank area domino accident prevention is advised: at this In the evaluation unit of tank area, character and the storage matter content size of storage tank storage material directly determine this unit generation thing Therefore severity degree, but by evaluation result understand this unit generation domino accident probability be not the highest, say Bright in this evaluation unit the accident prevention of enterprise be overall good, risk can not be eliminated except material nature etc. Outward, the risk that other factors cause all can be by the method for technology and management and goes reduction.In this unit, enterprise wants lattice The outer safety education problem noting third party unit in charge of construction, owing to this enterprise tank area is larger, at the scene to this enterprise It has been found that the checking maintenance work of part tank group has often in inspection.Fire operation can be related to during checking maintenance, if The safety education level of third party unit in charge of construction is low, and they are just unaware of the danger of this unit, easily smokes, takes electricity Words, arbitrarily the action such as start building, the most accidents caused.
For the angle of prevention, it is proposed that enterprise arranges in this unit area and significantly informs board, indicates this unit Domino accident hazard grade, and forbid the appearance of all in violation of rules and regulations incendiary sources；Meanwhile, strengthen there is the 3rd of partnership with enterprise Fang Ru factory safety education problem, can be by the way of routine check, strictly the safety education of control personnel.

Claims (4)

1. an evaluation methodology for petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention, is characterized in that: by building fuzzy operation evaluation collection, Fuzzy hierarchy analysis by synthesis method and LEC method are effectively combined, forms fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method, apply the method in petrochemical industry storage tank In the evaluation of district's domino accident prevention, the result after evaluation can make the domino accident factors causing disaster quantification of complexity, really Determine the danger classes of domino accident, thus the key preventive of clear and definite domino accident.
2. according to the evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area domino accident prevention described in claim l, it is characterised in that: root According to affecting factor that petrochemical industry tank area domino accident occurs, to the actual safety inspection of tank area and expert opinion, petrochemical industry The hierarchical chart of tank area domino accident factors causing disaster mainly comprises the storage character of material, the defect of safety management, peace The inefficacy of full protection measure and four big index factors lack of standardization of tank designs layout are constituted.
The evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area the most according to claim 1 domino accident prevention, it is characterised in that: Build during fuzzy operation evaluation collection, fuzzy evaluation collection taken 7 grades, i.e. evaluate collection=(entirely possible, quite possibility, can Can, Ke Neng little, the most impossible, it is very unlikely to, actual impossible), its each ranking score size and the value table (being shown in Table 1) of L Consistent, i.e. gained evaluation collection score matrix H=(10,6,3,1,0.5,0.2, O.1).
Table 1 L value table
The evaluation methodology of a kind of petrochemical industry tank area the most according to claim 1 domino accident prevention, it is characterised in that: profit When determining domino accident hazard grade by fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method, utilize the decision objective PTS of fuzzy hierarchy computing gained Value replaces the value of L in LEC calculating process, more i.e. can get domino accident hazard grade by LEC operational model.
CN201610134009.0A 2016-03-07 2016-03-07 Evaluation method for domino accident prevention of petrochemical storage tank area Pending CN105868884A (en)

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Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107462416A (en) * 2017-08-17 2017-12-12 沧州巨擎汽车配件有限公司 Domino formula blasting protection storehouse
CN108224096A (en) * 2018-01-03 2018-06-29 中国石油大学(华东) A kind of city oil-gas pipeline major accident Risk-warning appraisal procedure
CN109086914A (en) * 2018-07-12 2018-12-25 杭州电子科技大学 Harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk
CN109102144A (en) * 2018-06-20 2018-12-28 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 Method and device for determining operation risk possibility grade and storage medium
CN109165876A (en) * 2018-10-10 2019-01-08 杭州电子科技大学 A kind of chemical industrial park quantification area Risk Calculation method
CN111324970A (en) * 2020-03-06 2020-06-23 交通运输部水运科学研究所 Port oil tank area individual risk analysis method based on multiple domino effects
CN113822505A (en) * 2020-06-18 2021-12-21 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Early warning method, device and system for non-recovery event

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CN103077482A (en) * 2013-02-05 2013-05-01 广东电网公司 Power operation risk control method and system
CN103778578A (en) * 2012-10-26 2014-05-07 无锡南理工科技发展有限公司 College and university innovation entrepreneurial ability evaluation method based on fuzzy evaluation

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CN101136090A (en) * 2007-09-29 2008-03-05 南京大学 Industrial park surroundings risks recognizing method
CN103778578A (en) * 2012-10-26 2014-05-07 无锡南理工科技发展有限公司 College and university innovation entrepreneurial ability evaluation method based on fuzzy evaluation
CN103077482A (en) * 2013-02-05 2013-05-01 广东电网公司 Power operation risk control method and system

Cited By (10)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107462416A (en) * 2017-08-17 2017-12-12 沧州巨擎汽车配件有限公司 Domino formula blasting protection storehouse
CN107462416B (en) * 2017-08-17 2019-01-18 沧州巨擎汽车配件有限公司 Domino formula blasting protection storehouse
CN108224096A (en) * 2018-01-03 2018-06-29 中国石油大学(华东) A kind of city oil-gas pipeline major accident Risk-warning appraisal procedure
CN109102144A (en) * 2018-06-20 2018-12-28 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 Method and device for determining operation risk possibility grade and storage medium
CN109086914A (en) * 2018-07-12 2018-12-25 杭州电子科技大学 Harmful influence vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk
CN109086914B (en) * 2018-07-12 2022-03-25 杭州电子科技大学 Hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk
CN109165876A (en) * 2018-10-10 2019-01-08 杭州电子科技大学 A kind of chemical industrial park quantification area Risk Calculation method
CN109165876B (en) * 2018-10-10 2022-05-20 杭州电子科技大学 Chemical industry park quantitative area risk calculation method
CN111324970A (en) * 2020-03-06 2020-06-23 交通运输部水运科学研究所 Port oil tank area individual risk analysis method based on multiple domino effects
CN113822505A (en) * 2020-06-18 2021-12-21 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Early warning method, device and system for non-recovery event

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