CN105868884A - Evaluation method for domino accident prevention of petrochemical storage tank area - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides an evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms. The steps of the evaluation method are: constructing a hierarchical structure of the possibility of occurrence of disaster-causing factors for domino accidents in tank farm units, quantifying the causes of domino accidents through hierarchical calculations; constructing The grading guidelines and scoring basis of the membership degree of fuzzy operation enable the effective combination of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and LEC method to solve the problem that the expert experience method is difficult to quantify the value of L when the domino accident type occurs under the joint action of multiple factors; the combination formed The fuzzy level-LEC method determines the risk level of domino accidents, and clarifies the focus of the prevention of domino accidents in tank farm units; finally, according to the evaluation results, the causes of domino accidents are analyzed and targeted preventive measures are proposed to avoid blindness in the prevention of domino accidents and ensure petrochemical Safe operation of storage tank farms.

Description

An evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms

technical field

The invention relates to the field of accident prevention in petrochemical storage tank farms, in particular to an evaluation method for domino accident prevention in petrochemical storage tank farms.

technical background

As a storage device for various raw materials and products used in the production process, the petrochemical storage tank area has a wide variety of storage materials and most of them are flammable and explosive chemicals. The explosion hazard environment in the area is complex. Once an initial fire and explosion accident occurs in the petrochemical storage tank area, it is easy to trigger the domino effect, forming a situation of "connecting tanks and a sea of fire", threatening the life and property safety of enterprises and affecting the stable development of society.

At present, the research on the domino effect is relatively mature, but most of the studies by domestic and foreign scholars focus on the research on the probability model, transmission route and risk calculation of the domino effect. It is difficult to quantitatively reflect the disaster-causing factors of the accident, and it is also impossible to determine the risk level of the domino accident in the research unit. It cannot provide the decision-making basis for the domino accident prevention of the enterprise, which is not conducive to the safety management of the enterprise.

Therefore, it is necessary to establish an evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms, quantify and evaluate the domino accident-causing factors of the unit, determine the cause of domino accidents, evaluate the risk level of domino accidents, and formulate management measures for domino accident prevention to achieve reduction The risk of domino accidents and the purpose of preventing domino accidents.

Contents of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide an evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms, through which the focus of domino accident prevention in petrochemical storage tank farms can be clarified, and safety management can be changed from post-processing to prior prevention.

Fuzzy AHP is an analysis method for decision-making for multi-factor events. It uses AHP to determine the weight of each index in the evaluation index system relative to the upper-level index, and then constructs an evaluation set to obtain a decision by fuzzy operations. The total score and corresponding grade of the target. Fuzzy AHP is a semi-quantitative analysis method, which can reduce the subjective influence of people to a certain extent; in addition, when the data is incomplete, it can quantify the experience of experts.

The LEC evaluation method is a method proposed by American safety experts Graham and Kinney to measure the potential danger of people during operations. In this method, the possibility of accidents is defined as L, the frequency of exposure to dangerous environments is defined as E, the consequences of accidents are defined as C, and the degree of danger of accidents is defined as D, where D is L, E, The product of C (see Table 1 and Table 2 for the values of L, E, C, and D, respectively). The LEC evaluation method is usually used to evaluate the risk of the operation unit. The method is simple and operable, and it is beneficial to quickly grasp the dangerous situation of the operation unit.

Table 1 L, E, C value table

Fraction Accident probability (L) Fraction Exposure frequency (E) Fraction Accident Consequences (C) 10 totally expected 10 continuous exposure 100 catastrophe, many people died 6 quite likely 6 daily working hours exposure 40 disaster, several dead 3 possible, but not often 3 exposure once a week 15 very serious, one fatality 1 probably small, totally unexpected 2 monthly exposure 7 serious injury 0.5 Very unlikely, but conceivable 1 several exposures per year 3 major, disabling 0.2 very unlikely 0.5 very rare exposure 1 striking 0.1 practically impossible

Table 2 Hazard levels

Fraction grading Hazard level (D) >320 V Extremely dangerous, can not continue to work 160～320 IV Highly dangerous and requires immediate rectification 70～160 III Significantly dangerous and requires rectification 20～70 II general danger, attention required <20 I slightly dangerous, acceptable

An evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms is mainly based on the new expansion and combined use of the above two methods to form an evaluation method, which mainly includes the following steps:

(1) Constructing the hierarchical structure of the possibility of occurrence of disaster-causing factors for domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms

The occurrence of domino accidents in petrochemical storage tank farms is often caused by multiple factors, such as the technological characteristics of the tank farm, layout design, fire and explosion protection measures, the amount of stored materials, the inherent properties of materials, and the safety management of personnel. Improper cross-contact can trigger a domino accident. Through the safety inspection of tank farm units, daily safety inspection records, inspection and maintenance records, tank farm accident ledgers, and safety education and training assessment results, etc., experts comprehensively discuss and establish multi-factor decision-making in line with the actual situation of the tank farm. Hierarchy diagram of the likelihood of a domino accident. Through the constructed hierarchical structure, it is possible to classify and analyze the various and complex domino accident hazard factors, and use hierarchical calculation to quantify the weight of each hazard factor and clarify the weak link of the domino accident cause.

(2) Construct the grading guide and scoring basis of the membership degree of fuzzy operation

In order to effectively combine fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and LEC method, in this paper, in the process of constructing the grading guide and scoring basis of fuzzy operation membership degree, the fuzzy evaluation set is correspondingly selected to 7 levels, that is, evaluation set = (completely possible, quite likely, Likely, maybe small, very unlikely, very unlikely, practically impossible), its value size is consistent with the value table of L (see Table 1), let H be the score of each level in the comment set V, that is, H =(10, 6, 3, 1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.1). After the fuzzy calculation, the total score of the probability of occurrence of domino accident hazards in the storage tank area can be obtained, and this score value is used to replace the value of L in the LEC operation process, so as to solve the type of domino accidents that occur under the joint action of multiple disaster-causing factors It is difficult to quantify the value of L by the expert experience method.

(3) Fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method to determine the risk level of domino accidents

The value of L is obtained through step (2); the value of the exposure frequency E is mainly based on the daily inspection and maintenance records, combined with the value table of E, it is given by expert advice; the value of the accident consequence C is mainly based on the tank farm The material capacity and properties of C are given by expert advice in combination with the value table of C. Finally, substitute the values of L, E, and C into the LEC calculation formula to obtain the danger level D of the domino accident in the tank farm.

(4) Analysis of the cause of the domino accident and proposal of measures

Based on the fuzzy hierarchical-LEC calculation results, the cause analysis of domino accidents is carried out, and targeted preventive measures for domino accidents are put forward to avoid the occurrence of domino accidents.

The present invention has the advantages of fully utilizing the advantages of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the LEC method for combination and integration, the constructed fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method can quantify complex and diverse domino accident disaster-causing factors, clarify the cause of the domino accident, and determine the domino accident risk level , The evaluation results make the weak links of domino accident prevention in the tank area clear at a glance, reduce the blindness of domino accident prevention, and make the conclusion of safety evaluation more reasonable and scientific.

Description of drawings

Hierarchical diagram of the possibility of a tank unit domino accident in a petrochemical tank farm.

detailed description:

Further description will be made below by taking the implementation of the evaluation method for domino accident prevention in a petrochemical storage tank farm of the present invention in a storage tank farm of a petrochemical enterprise as an example.

Step (1) Construct the hierarchical structure diagram of the possibility of occurrence of the domino accident disaster-causing factors in the petrochemical storage tank area;

Combining with the actual situation of the enterprise's storage tank unit, this paper constructs the Domino Disaster Caused by the enterprise's tank farm unit from four factors: the nature of the stored material, the defect of safety management, the failure of safety protection measures, and the non-standard design and layout of the storage tank itself. The factor hierarchy, as shown in the figure.

In this paper, 10 experts are selected to compare the first-level and second-level evaluation indicators of the possibility of occurrence of domino hazards and harmful factors in the tank area according to the scale of 1-9 in the analytic hierarchy process, and the judgment results form a matrix Ai (i=B ₁ , B ₂ ,...B ₄ ; B _i is the judgment matrix of each first-level index relative to the target index), and the consistency test is carried out on the judgment matrix, and the specific results are as follows:

Table 3 Discrimination matrix of criterion layer

Table 4 Judgment matrix of each index factor

Table ₅ B2 safety management factor judgment matrix

Table 6 _B3 safety protection measure factors judgment matrix

Table ₇ Judgment matrix of B4 design layout factors

Step (2) constructing a fuzzy operation evaluation module to carry out fuzzy comprehensive operation;

Select 10 experts to evaluate each evaluation index of the storage tank farm according to the established evaluation set V=(completely possible, quite possible, possible, possibly small, very unlikely, very unlikely, practically impossible), according to the evaluation The calculation formula mentioned in the results and the model obtains the fuzzy evaluation matrix R _i (i=B ₁ , B ₂ , B ₃ , B ₄ ) of each first-level index. The result is as follows:

Table ₈ B1 fuzzy evaluation matrix

R _B1 V ₁ V ₂ V ₃ V ₄ V ₅ V ₆ V ₇ C ₁ 0 0 0.3 0.7 0 0 0 C ₂ 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0 C ₃ 0 0 0 0.8 0.2 0 0 _B1 0 0 0.252 0.709 0.039 0 0

Table ₉ B2 fuzzy evaluation matrix

R _B2 V ₁ V ₂ V ₃ V ₄ V ₅ V ₆ V ₇ C ₄ 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 0 C ₅ 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0 C ₆ 0 0 0.2 0.8 0 0 0 C ₇ 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 0 C ₈ 0 0 0.6 0.4 0 0 0 C ₉ 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 0 C ₁₀ 0 0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0 C ₁₁ 0 0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0 0 B ₂ 0 0 0.283 0.636 0.069 0.012 0

Table 10 _B3 fuzzy evaluation matrix

R _B3 V ₁ V ₂ V ₃ V ₄ V ₅ V ₆ V ₇ C ₁₂ 0 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 C ₁₃ 0 0 0 0.4 0.6 0 0 C ₁₄ 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 C ₁₅ 0 0 0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 C ₁₆ 0 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0 C ₁₇ 0 0 0 0.3 0.7 0 0 B ₃ 0 0 0 0.492 0.481 0.027 0

Table ₁₁ B4 fuzzy evaluation matrix

R _B4 V ₁ V ₂ V ₃ V ₄ V ₅ V ₆ V ₇ C ₁₈ 0 0 0 0.2 0.8 0 0 C ₁₉ 0 0 0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 C ₂₀ 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.2 0 C ₂₁ 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 B ₄ 0 0 0 0.146 0.779 0.064 0.011

The weight vector of each first-level indicator relative to the target indicator is calculated as WS=(0.117, 0.639, 0.177, 0.067), and the membership degree vector B of the target indicator to the evaluation set V can be calculated according to the formula:

$\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; B</span>}<span\; class="notranslate">\; =</span>{\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; W</span>}}_{\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; the\; s</span>}}<span\; class="notranslate">\; \&Center\; Dot;</span>{\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; R</span>}}_{\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; the\; s</span>}}\\ <span\; class="notranslate">\; =</span><span\; class="notranslate">\; (</span>\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.117</span>}<span\; class="notranslate">\; ,</span>\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.639</span>}<span\; class="notranslate">\; ,</span>\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.177</span>}<span\; class="notranslate">\; ,</span>\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.067</span>}<span\; class="notranslate">\; )</span>\left(\begin{array}{ccccccc}\mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.252</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.709</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.039</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}\\ \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.283</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.636</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.069</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.012</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}\\ \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.492</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.481</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.027</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}\\ \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.146</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.778</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.065</span>}& \mathrm{<span\; class="notranslate">\; 0.011</span>}\end{array}\right)\end{array}$

After calculation, B=(0, 0, 0.211, 0.585, 0.186, 0.017, 0.001). Therefore, the probability score of the type of domino accident in the tank farm unit of the enterprise is:

F＝B· ^HT ＝1.31

Step (3) Fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method determines the risk level of domino accidents;

Using the LEC method to evaluate the domino accident risk level of the tank farm unit, the results are shown in Table 12:

Table 12 Danger levels of domino accidents in tank farm units

Step (4) Analysis of Domino Accident Causes and Proposal of Domino Accident Prevention Measures

According to the evaluation results, we can know that the danger level of the domino accident of the storage tank unit of this enterprise is extremely dangerous, and the probability value of the domino accident is 1.31, which is between the possibility of small and possible.

The analysis of the causes of the domino accident in the storage tank farm mainly includes several points:

1) In the composition of domino accident occurrence factors in this unit, the weight of safety management factor is 0.639, the weight of storage tank material is 0.117, the weight of safety protection measures is 0.177, and the weight of storage tank layout design is 0.067. The results show that the intrinsically safe design of the storage tank unit is good, and the disaster-causing factors leading to the domino accident mainly come from safety management, among which the factor of "insufficient safety education of the third-party construction unit (C8)" has the highest weight ratio, which is 0.269 , which shows that the storage tank unit does not manage the safety education of the external third party well, and this factor should be paid attention to by the enterprise.

2) Among the secondary factors under the three primary indicators of storage tank material, safety protection measures, and storage tank layout design, the factors with the highest weight ratio are "material flammability and explosiveness", "lax fire protection and sealing or the material is unqualified", "the spacing between storage tanks does not meet the specification requirements", respectively 0.707, 0.451, and 0.511. Among them, "substance flammability and explosiveness" belongs to the inherent property of the substance and is an irreversible risk; the two factors of "lax fireproof seal or unqualified material" and "storage tank spacing does not meet the specification requirements" are two factors that can be passed through It is a controllable risk that can be reduced by increasing the company's security capital investment and standardizing the company's security planning.

3) The company has the highest weight of 0.709 if the possibility level of domino accidents due to the material properties of storage tanks (B1) is "little possibility"; the possibility level of domino accidents due to safety management factors (B2) is "possibility". "small" has the highest weight, which is 0.636; the possibility level of the domino accident caused by safety protection measures (B3) is the highest weight, which is 0.492; the possibility of domino accident caused by the storage tank layout design (B4) is A sex rating of "Very unlikely but conceivable" has the highest weight of 0.779. Therefore, we can conclude that under the existing safety management and design conditions of the enterprise, "material properties of storage tanks", "safety management factors" and "safety protection measures" are still the main factors leading to a higher risk level of domino accidents; The company's "storage tank layout design" basically meets the requirements of the specification. The evaluation results indicate the focus of domino accident prevention in this unit.

Combined with the above analysis of the causes of domino accidents, the proposed measures for the prevention of domino accidents in the storage tank farm are proposed: in the evaluation unit of the storage tank farm, the nature of the storage tanks and the capacity of the stored materials directly determine the serious consequences of the accident in the unit However, it can be seen from the evaluation results that the possibility of domino accidents in this unit is not the highest, indicating that the accident prevention measures of enterprises in this evaluation unit are generally good. Except for the nature of the material itself, the risk caused by other factors cannot be eliminated. Risks can be reduced through technical and management methods. In this unit, the enterprise should pay special attention to the safety education of the third-party construction unit. Due to the large scale of the enterprise's storage tank farm, we also found in the on-site inspection of the enterprise that inspection and maintenance of some tank groups are often carried out. Hot work will be involved in the inspection and maintenance process. If the safety education level of the third-party construction unit is low, they will not be aware of the danger of the unit, and they are prone to smoking, answering and calling, and starting work at will, which can easily lead to accidents.

From the point of view of prevention, it is recommended that the enterprise set up an obvious notice board in the area of the unit, indicating the risk level of the domino accident of the unit, and strictly prohibit the occurrence of all illegal ignition sources; at the same time, strengthen the third-party cooperation with the enterprise In order to solve the problem of factory safety education, the safety education of personnel can be strictly controlled through regular assessment.

Claims (4)

1. An evaluation method for domino accident prevention in a petrochemical storage tank area, characterized in that: by constructing a fuzzy calculation evaluation set, the fuzzy hierarchical comprehensive analysis method and the LEC method are effectively combined to form a fuzzy hierarchical-LEC method, and the method is applied in In the evaluation of domino accident prevention in petrochemical tank farms, the evaluation results can quantify the complex domino accident hazard factors, determine the risk level of domino accidents, and thus clarify the key points of domino accident prevention. 2. The evaluation method for the prevention of domino accidents in a petrochemical storage tank area according to claim 1, characterized in that: according to the factors affecting the occurrence of domino accidents in the petrochemical storage tank area, actual safety inspections and expert opinions on the storage tank area, The hierarchical structure chart of domino accident-caused factors in the petrochemical storage tank area mainly includes four major index factors: the nature of stored materials, the defects of safety management, the failure of safety protection measures, and the irregular design and layout of storage tanks. 3. the evaluation method of a kind of petrochemical storage tank area domino accident prevention according to claim 1 is characterized in that: in the process of constructing fuzzy calculation evaluation set, get 7 grades with fuzzy evaluation set, i.e. evaluation set=(complete Likely, Quite Likely, Likely, Likely Small, Very Impossible, Very Impossible, Actually Impossible), the scores of each level are consistent with the value table of L (see Table 1), that is, the score matrix H of the obtained evaluation set =(10, 6, 3, 1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.1). Table 1 L value table 4. the evaluation method of domino accident prevention in a kind of petrochemical storage tank area according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: when utilizing fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method to determine domino accident danger level, utilize the decision-making goal total score that fuzzy hierarchy operation gained is obtained value instead of the value of L in the LEC calculation process, and then the domino accident risk level can be obtained through the LEC calculation model.