CN110059949A - A kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory - Google Patents
A kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory Download PDFInfo
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- CN110059949A CN110059949A CN201910286884.4A CN201910286884A CN110059949A CN 110059949 A CN110059949 A CN 110059949A CN 201910286884 A CN201910286884 A CN 201910286884A CN 110059949 A CN110059949 A CN 110059949A
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Abstract
The aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory that the invention discloses a kind of, belongs to industrial hazards risk assessment technology field.This method comprises: tentatively being tested and assessed by initial evaluation system to the related major influence factors for the aluminum products factory that aluminium powder explodes first, primary Calculation is carried out to the related principal element for influencing aluminum products factory;Then secondary evaluation is carried out by the risk evaluating system, risk class evaluation system constructs hierarchy Model by means of catastrophe theory, evaluation goal is decomposed at many levels, total mutation membership function value is calculated using normalization formula, realizes the evaluation of factory safety grade and dynamic evaluation;Gained assessment result is finally transferred to the early warning system, early warning classification is carried out to security level through the early warning system.The problem of the invention avoids Weight Acquisitions in the evaluation of common factory safety by subjective impact, and more accurate evaluation result is obtained from the inherent mechanism of action of aluminum products factory system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to industrial hazards risk assessment technology fields, and in particular to a kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure.
Background technique
With the development of modern industry, polishing process is more and more applied, so that powdered product is increasing, powder
The risk of dust explosion is increasing.The aluminium powder explosion accident occurred in recent years has to draw attention, and what aluminium powder exploded grinds
Study carefully and start late in China, space state is substantially at before founding the state.With the development of social economy and aluminium powder explode it is continuous
Occur, explosion-proof thinking is gradually turned from previous " passive explosion-proof " after the accident to " actively explosion-proof " of management of hazard risk
Become.Currently, although there is certain basis in China in terms of aluminium powder risk of explosion Journal of Sex Research, since these evaluation methods are both multiple
It is miscellaneous and be difficult to correctly handle Weight, and fail to realize dynamic safety evaluation well.Therefore, one is provided for aluminum products factory
A risk assessment catastrophic model is provided for manager with reference to just using preventing aluminium powder explosion raising aluminum products factory safe condition as target
Seem particularly significant.
The generation and development of aluminium powder explosion accident, by the factors with uncertain, randomness and ambiguity
Influence and control, be one have kick, irreversibility, systematic complex process.Since catastrophe theory is a kind of ratio
More mature and comparatively perfect theory of singularities is that the state of system generates discontinuity and change with continually changing external control parameters
The mathematical theory of change, and the theory is commonly used for recognizing and predicting the state behavior of complication system.
Summary of the invention
Lack the aluminium powder risk of explosion based on catastrophe theory to solve the prior art and assess this defect, the present invention provides
A kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory;It is intended that aluminum products factory provides the mutation of a risk assessment
Model, the disadvantage that raw data acquisition, index weights distribution aspect subjectivity should be avoided strong, again from aluminum products factory system
Inherent mechanism obtains more accurate risk grade.
Its technical solution includes:
A kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory, used risk evaluating system include initial
Evaluation system, Risk Evaluating System and early warning system, the appraisal procedure successively the following steps are included:
A, it is carried out just by related major influence factors of the initial evaluation system to the aluminum products factory that aluminium powder explodes
Pacing is commented, to influence aluminum products factory related principal element carry out primary Calculation, wherein be related to because being known as C1Safety training religion
It educates, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Professional element
Matter mainly passes through field investigation method and obtains, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system, C12Temperature
Degree and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory;
B, secondary evaluation is carried out by the risk evaluating system
General objective is carried out multi-level primary and secondary contradiction according to the inherent mechanism of action of system by b1, building hierarchy Model
It decomposes, the secondary dendritic structure for being arranged in handstand, is successively decomposed downwards after the former head, until decomposing quantifiable evaluation index
Until;Wherein, rule layer is by B1Management system, B2Operating staff, B3Facilities and equipment and B4Environmental factor composition, B1Management system by
The C of indicator layer1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Composition, B are administered in hidden troubles removing2Operation
Employee by indicator layer C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability composition, B3Facilities and equipment by indicator layer C8Dedusting system
System, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system composition, B4Environmental factor by indicator layer C12Temperature and humidity,
C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory forms;
B2, evaluation index carry out nondimensionalization processing
Wherein, C12Temperature and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure is direct index;
C1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety,
C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system, C15Factory
Construction criteria is negative index;
The direct index is standardized according to formula (1):
The negative index is standardized according to formula (2):
In formula (1), formula (2), xiFor evaluation index value;xi' be evaluation index standardized value;xminAnd xmaxRespectively comment
The minimum value and maximum value of valence index;
B3, mutation series is calculated according to the normalization formula of different models
It may be selected by corresponding elementary catastrophe model after the number for determining control variable, according to the normalizing of different models
Change the dimensionless number of formula and bottom index according to mutation series is successively calculated upwards, finally finds out total mutation series and commented
Valence;
B4, aluminum products factory security level is divided
It is 4 grades by aluminum products factory safety status classification, it is respectively outstanding, good, medium, poor;Firstly, by aluminium powder
The single index value of each grade of risk of explosion is standardized, and the normalization formula for being then taken to corresponding model is fallen into a trap
It calculates, and obtains the classification standard of mutation series;Finally, by total mutation series of sample to be evaluated and mutation series classification standard into
Row compares, so that it is determined that aluminum products factory to be evaluated security level;
C, assessment result obtained by step b is transferred to the early warning system, security level is carried out through the early warning system
Early warning classification.
As a preferred solution of the present invention, the derivation step of formula is normalized in step b3 are as follows: the gesture of abruptly-changing system
Function is F (x), and wherein x indicates state variable, and coefficient u, v, w, t of x indicates control variable, by seeking first derivative to F (x),
And enable F'(x)=0, obtain its profile of equilibrium;By seeking second dervative to F (x), and F " (x)=0 is enabled, is balanced curved surface
Singular Set;By the simultaneous solution of equation F'(x)=0 and F " (x)=0, Bifurcation equation is obtained;When each control variable meets Bifurcation equation
When, system will mutate, and can export normalization formula by the Bifurcation equation of decomposed form.
Compared with prior art, present invention offers following advantageous effects:
1) present invention analyzes the various factors for influencing aluminium powder explosion comprehensively, can be automatic when carrying out aluminium powder explosion analysis
Influence factor is obtained, improves work efficiency, also avoids the inaccuracy for artificially seeking aluminium powder detonation factors;
2) generating process of aluminium powder explosion agrees with catastrophe theory perfection, and catastrophe theory is described with lively mathematical tool
Aluminium powder explodes this kick, irreversible complex process, accurately features the mechanism of aluminium powder explosion, it is quick-fried accurately to have evaluated aluminium powder
Fried risk.
3) general objective is carried out multi-level primary and secondary contradiction and decomposed by catastrophe theory according to the inherent mechanism of action of system, and will
Evaluation index presses minor sort after the former head, and the method which uses combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis has not only weighed each evaluation index
Relative importance, and avoid the strong disadvantage of evaluation criterion weight distribution aspect subjectivity;
4) model can be communicated to administrative staff or worker by layering early warning system by the result that present invention assessment obtains,
It can achieve effect promptly and accurately, effectively provide guarantee to employee's life security.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawing:
Fig. 1 is aluminium powder risk of explosion evaluation method flow chart of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is that the present invention is based on the assessment indicator systems and hierarchy Model of catastrophe theory building.
Specific embodiment
The aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory that the invention proposes a kind of, it is of the invention excellent in order to make
Point, technical solution are clearer, clear, elaborate combined with specific embodiments below to the present invention.
Referring to figs. 1 and 2, a kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory of the present invention, is adopted
Assessment system includes initial evaluation system, risk class evaluation system and grading forewarning system system.
One, the evaluation procedure of initial evaluation system is as follows:
1, assessment indicator system is determined
Using the aluminum products factory that aluminium powder explosion occurs as research object, the principal element for influencing factory safety is chosen, it is main to wrap
It includes:
C1Safety education training: factory management personnel are reflected for the attention degree of Employee Security education and employee to peace
The familiarity of full rules and regulations, safety education training development is more successful, and the danger level of aluminium powder explosion is smaller.
C2Post rules and regulations: this system may be implemented safely and effectively to reach maximum output conjunction with the investment of minimum operational
The clean and tidy administrative purposes in lattice product, scene.Post rules and regulations, which are formulated, gets over specification, full and accurate, and the probability for generation of exploding is smaller.
C3Emergency plan HSE: determine accident occur when emergency management and rescue range and system, make contingency management no longer without
According to can be according to without ready patterns to follow.A possibility that emergency plan HSE is more full and accurate, reduces causality loss is bigger.
C4Hidden troubles removing is administered: referring to the investigation improvement to key industrys such as high risk industries.It is more abundant to check hidden perils, work
Factory is safer.
C5Awareness of safety: awareness of safety is higher, and the danger level that aluminium powder explosion occurs is lower.
C6Violation operation: preventing to operate against regulations phenomenon is that enterprise prevents accident the important means of generation.Violation operation is more,
The danger level that aluminium powder explosion occurs is bigger.
C7Specialized capability: determine whether employee can carry out in daily production activity in strict accordance with correct operating instruction
Production activity, whether this is largely affected can be because of latent dangerous factor caused by human factor.
C8Dust pelletizing system: the quality of dust pelletizing system performance directly determines factory's depositing dust and inhibits aluminium powder concentration ability
Size, and aluminium powder concentration is likely occurred what aluminium powder fired when reaching lower explosion limit.
C9Ventilating system: the ventilation of factory can test the control to temperature and aluminium powder concentration the two factors to reduce aluminium
The danger level size that powder explosion occurs.
C10Blasting protection facilities: when explosion accident occurs for factory or equipment, personnel can be minimized using this equipment
Loss.
C11Lightning protection electric system: in some high-rises or factory, if do not pacified on thunderstorm weather factory roof
Lightning protection system is filled, easily generation thunder and lightning is ignited last ignition event.
C12Temperature and humidity: studies have shown that the temperature and humidity in environment can all influence the kindling susceptibility of aluminium powder, in turn
Influence aluminium powder fires danger level.
C13Oxygen concentration: oxygen concentration directly decides the complexity for firing generation, is that aluminium powder fires risk assessment
Important indicator.Oxygen concentration is higher, and it is bigger that aluminium powder fires odds.
C14Initial pressure: the initial pressure of environment affects the complexity that aluminium powder fires.
C15The construction criteria of factory: the workshop for meeting construction criteria can make dredging channel unimpeded, be conducive to after the accident
Personnel flee from and venting of dust explosion.
2, index system scores
Inviting has the expert of further investigation and prominent achievement is several to carry out evaluation marking to each factor aluminium powder explosion aspect,
Wherein, C1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety, C6
Violation operation, C7Specialized capability mainly passes through field investigation method and obtains, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities,
C11Lightning protection electric system, C12Temperature and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory mainly passes through existing
Field monitoring method obtains.
Two, the risk class evaluation system the following steps are included:
1, hierarchy Model is constructed
According to the inherent mechanism of action of system, general objective is subjected to multi-level primary and secondary contradiction and is decomposed, it is secondary after the former head to be arranged in
The dendritic structure of handstand successively decomposes downwards, until decomposing quantifiable evaluation index;
Firstly, destination layer is determined as aluminum products factory Safety Index System Assessment.
Then, rule layer is made of four management system, operating staff, facilities and equipment, environmental factor aspects.
Finally, C of the B1 management system by indicator layer1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE,
C4Composition, B are administered in hidden troubles removing2Operating staff by indicator layer C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability composition, B3
Facilities and equipment by indicator layer C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system composition, B4 environment because
Element by indicator layer C12Temperature and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory forms.
2, the nondimensionalization processing of evaluation index
Since the value range and unit dimension of each evaluation index value are different, different measurement units need to be eliminated to evaluation
As a result influence, so each evaluation index value need to be converted to the dimensionless number evidence between 0~1, meanwhile, catastrophe theory requires most
Bottom index need to be converted into " being the bigger the better " type index;For direct index (C12Temperature and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure
Power), it is standardized using formula (1);For negative index (C1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency management and rescue are pre-
Case, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10It is explosion-proof
Facility, C11Lightning protection electric system, C15The construction criteria of factory), it is standardized using formula (2);
In formula: xiFor evaluation index value;xi' be evaluation index standardized value;xminAnd xmaxRespectively evaluation index is most
Small value and maximum value;
3, the derivation of formula is normalized
The potential function of abruptly-changing system is F (x), and wherein x indicates state variable, and coefficient u, v, w, t of x indicates control variable,
By seeking first derivative to F (x), and enable F'(x)=0, its profile of equilibrium can be obtained;By seeking second dervative to F (x), and
F " (x)=0 is enabled, the Singular Set of profile of equilibrium can be obtained;By the simultaneous solution of equation F'(x)=0 and F " (x)=0, disagreement side can be obtained
Journey;When each control variable meets Bifurcation equation, system will mutate, and can export normalizing by the Bifurcation equation of decomposed form
Change formula, the not homogeneity state of each control variable is turned into same matter state by normalization formula, that is, is turned to by state variable expression
Matter state, wherein common several catastrophic models are as shown in table 1 below;
Table 1 often uses catastrophic model and normalizing formula
4, mutation series is calculated
It may be selected by corresponding elementary catastrophe model after the number for determining control variable, according to the normalizing of different models
Change the dimensionless number of formula and bottom index according to mutation series is successively calculated upwards, finally finds out total mutation series and commented
Valence;If non-correlation uses " incomplementarity " principle, i.e. " big-and-middle take small " between index in calculating process;If having phase between index
Guan Xingying uses " complementation " principle, i.e., " is averaged ";
5, aluminum products factory security level is divided
It is 4 grades by aluminum products factory safety status classification, it is respectively outstanding, good, medium, poor;Firstly, by aluminium powder
The single index value of each grade of risk of explosion is standardized, and the normalization formula for being then taken to corresponding model is fallen into a trap
It calculates, and obtains the classification standard of mutation series;Finally, by total mutation series of sample to be evaluated and mutation series classification standard into
Row compares, so that it is determined that aluminum products factory to be evaluated security level.
Three, the evaluation procedure of grading forewarning system system is as follows:
The grade determined according to security level evaluation system: it is outstanding, good, medium, poor, establish aluminum products factory safety etc.
Grade classification Early-warning Model, corresponding pre-warning signal successively with blue, yellow, orange, red indicate;
Blue early warning (outstanding): aluminium powder hidden peril of explosion is few, and risk is very low with vulnerability, is caused to damage by harm
There is very little risk, does not affect the normal production activity generally;
Yellow early warning (good): aluminium powder hidden peril of explosion is few, and hazard-affected body vulnerability is low, by small, the disaster integrated risk of harm
Property is low, need to take certain precautionary measures;
Orange warning (medium): there are a certain number of security risks, generation aluminium powder risk of explosion is larger, system rapid wear
Property it is higher, disaster harm it is heavier, calamity source level is higher, need to lay Its Preventive Measures to ensure production safety;
Red early warning (poor): aluminium powder hidden peril of explosion is extremely more, and scale is big, and destructive power is strong, and risk is very high with vulnerability,
Risk is high, seriously affects production, should stop normal activity immediately, checks hidden danger in time and carries out mitigation engineering;
After evaluation result is converted to corresponding pre-warning signal by grading forewarning system system, understand quickly, accurately by early warning
Signal is sent to related factories responsible person by wireless device and offers employee in advance, enables them to timely carry out corresponding anti-
Quick-fried measure.
Embodiment 1:
Appraisal procedure of the present invention is applied into Mr. Yu's aluminum products factory.
The assessment indicator system first established according to Fig. 1 carries out the safety of entire aluminum products factory from the viewpoint of system engineering
Aggregate analysis considers safe design, equipment state, safety devices, the cleaner, monitoring system, safety management, safety of factory
The many aspects such as inspection, safety training factor scores to the index system of foundation.Appraisal result is listed in table 2.According to evaluation
Process and step are calculated separately out the mutation value of series (being shown in Table 2) of each index by normalizing formula.Wherein, C1, C2, C3And C4Between
In the presence of apparent interrelated effect, control variable is 4, is consistent with butterfly mutation, is complementary type MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE;According to this
Analogize, C5, C6, C7For complementary type Coattail catastrophe model, C8, C9, C10, C11For incomplementarity type MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE, C12, C13, C14
For incomplementarity type Coattail catastrophe model.Factory safety judges the first layer system B1, B2, B3, B4Belong to incomplementarity type butterfly mutation mould
Type.
Show that indicator layer scores according to initial score, then to B1Layer show that indicator layer mutation is subordinate to butterfly mutation formula
Membership fuction value, calculating process are as follows:
Then the average value that four values are taken according to " complementation " principle, obtains B1The value c of rule layer, calculated result are as follows:
Due to B1, B2, B3, B4For MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE, so being mutated formula according to butterflyObtain B1
Rule layer is mutated membership function value b.This algorithm is repeated, each rule layer mutation membership function value is successively calculated, then according to " non-
It is complementary " principle, it is minimized as total mutation membership function value a.
Certain the aluminum products factory safety evaluation result of table 2
According to the above method, this aluminum products factory aluminium powder risk of explosion pre-warning signal determined is blue early warning.
It uses for reference the prior art and can be realized in the part that do not addressed in the present invention.
It should be noted that any equivalent way that those skilled in the art are made under the introduction of this specification, or
Obvious variant should all be within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory, it is characterised in that: its used risk assessment system
System include initial evaluation system, Risk Evaluating System and early warning system, the appraisal procedure successively the following steps are included:
A, just pacing is carried out by related major influence factors of the initial evaluation system to the aluminum products factory that aluminium powder explodes
Comment, to influence aluminum products factory related principal element carry out primary Calculation, wherein be related to because being known as C1Safety education training, C2
Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability is main
It is obtained by field investigation method, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system, C12Temperature and wet
Degree, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory;
B, secondary evaluation is carried out by the risk evaluating system
General objective is carried out multi-level primary and secondary contradiction point according to the inherent mechanism of action of system by b1, building hierarchy Model
It solves, the secondary dendritic structure for being arranged in handstand, is successively decomposed downwards after the former head, is up to decomposing quantifiable evaluation index
Only;Wherein, rule layer is by B1Management system, B2Operating staff, B3Facilities and equipment and B4Environmental factor composition, B1Management system is by referring to
Mark the C of layer1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Composition, B are administered in hidden troubles removing2Operator
Work by indicator layer C5Awareness of safety, C6Violation operation, C7Specialized capability composition, B3Facilities and equipment by indicator layer C8Dedusting system
System, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system composition, B4Environmental factor by indicator layer C12Temperature and humidity,
C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure, C15The construction criteria of factory forms;
B2, evaluation index carry out nondimensionalization processing
Wherein, C12Temperature and humidity, C13Oxygen concentration, C14Initial pressure is direct index;
C1Safety education training, C2Post rules and regulations, C3Emergency plan HSE, C4Hidden troubles removing improvement, C5Awareness of safety, C6It disobeys
Rule operation, C7Specialized capability, C8Dust pelletizing system, C9Ventilating system, C10Blasting protection facilities, C11Lightning protection electric system, C15The construction of factory
Standard is negative index;
The direct index is standardized according to formula (1):
The negative index is standardized according to formula (2):
In formula (1), formula (2), xiFor evaluation index value;xi' be evaluation index standardized value;xminAnd xmaxRespectively evaluation refers to
Target minimum value and maximum value;
B3, mutation series is calculated according to the normalization formula of different models
It may be selected by corresponding elementary catastrophe model after the number for determining control variable, it is public according to the normalization of different models
The dimensionless number of formula and bottom index finally finds out total mutation series and is evaluated according to mutation series is successively calculated upwards;
B4, aluminum products factory security level is divided
It is 4 grades by aluminum products factory safety status classification, it is respectively outstanding, good, medium, poor;Firstly, aluminium powder is exploded
The single index value of each grade of risk is standardized, and is then taken in the normalization formula of corresponding model and is calculated, and
Obtain the classification standard of mutation series;Finally, total mutation series of sample to be evaluated and the classification standard of mutation series are compared
Compared with so that it is determined that aluminum products factory to be evaluated security level;
C, assessment result obtained by step b is transferred to the early warning system, early warning is carried out to security level through the early warning system
Classification.
2. a kind of aluminium powder risk of explosion appraisal procedure based on catastrophe theory according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: step
The derivation step of formula is normalized in rapid b3 are as follows: the potential function of abruptly-changing system is F (x), and wherein x indicates state variable, the coefficient of x
U, v, w, t indicate control variable, by seeking first derivative to F (x), and enable F'(x)=0, obtain its profile of equilibrium;By right
F (x) seeks second dervative, and enables F " (x)=0, is balanced singular point of a surface collection;By the simultaneous of equation F'(x)=0 and F " (x)=0
It solves, obtains Bifurcation equation;When each control variable meets Bifurcation equation, system will mutate, and pass through the disagreement of decomposed form
Equation can export normalization formula.
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