CN106651153A - Chemical industry park real-time quantitative risk assessment method based on multi-disaster real-time coupling - Google Patents
Chemical industry park real-time quantitative risk assessment method based on multi-disaster real-time coupling Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a chemical industry park real-time quantitative risk assessment method based on multi-disaster real-time coupling, introduces a Monte Carlo analysis method and solves the problem of uncertainty of setting of a model probability parameter. By effective integration of the Monte Carlo analysis method and a risk distance calculation method, a chemical industry park site selection risk protection distance is initially determined. According to an environmental risk system principle, by combining characteristics of the chemical industry, a chemical industry park enterprise comprehensive risk assessment index system based on inherent risks of a risk source, effectiveness of a prevention and control mechanism and vulnerability of a receptor is constructed. A catastrophe rating method is introduced to assess an environmental risk comprehensive level, a chemical industry enterprise environmental risk comprehensive assessment method based on a catastrophe principle is proposed, and comprehensive assessment grades are divided into five grade levels so as to discriminate a comprehensive risk level of a chemical industry park enterprise and timely take emergency response strategies. According to the chemical industry park real-time quantitative risk assessment method disclosed by the invention, planning evaluation and risk management of a chemical industry park can be implemented, and a risk prevention ability and a risk management level of the chemical industry park can be improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power and communication technical field, more particularly to a kind of chemical industrial park based on the coupling in real time of disaster-ridden kind
Real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment.
Background technology
It is to solve effective distribution of resources, preserve the ecological environment into 21 century, realizes that the great strategy of sustainable development three is asked
Topic, according to the principle of " layout is concentrated, land used is intensive, Industrial agglomeration ", with reference to resources environment carrying capacity, the Industry Foundation in area
And advantages for development, promoting strong industry, association industry and the intensive construction of relevant factor, formation leading industry is clear and definite, association industry
Gather, facility resource is shared, pollution control concentration, the centralized development area of the cyclic utilization of waste.Petrochemical industry has started with assets
Recombinate, project core business, the intensive industry restructuring for principal character of technology is moved towards from capital intensive, started merger connection
Upsurge is closed, production factors flowing in the world is accelerated, the development of economic globalization has been promoted, world petrochemical industry is made
Development the characteristics of present new and trend.From the point of view of economic geography angle, scale development is exactly presented, gather development
Trend.On the one hand show as that chemical enterprise scale is increasing, i.e., individual scale and collection dimerization；On the other hand show as
The number of the enterprise concentrated in certain area is more and more, i.e. territorial scope collection dimerization.
The construction of Chemical spectrography is strong to promote chemical industry and expanding economy, while it should also be recognized that, change
It is the garden assembled by more chemical industry to learn industrial park, thus has more chemical enterprise in region, and this is just determined
Chemical spectrography has a following risk：1. major hazard source is numerous in chemical industry garden：Dangerous matter sources are intensive in chemical industrial park,
Mostly Petro-chemical enterprise, produces, stores, using, transporting a large amount of inflammable, explosive, poisonous hazardous chemicals.2. in garden
May interact between dangerous matter sources, between enterprise：Garden enterprise is relatively intensive so that if certain enterprise occurs major accident meeting
Involve adjacent enterprise, it is likely that cause catastrophic domino accident chain effect.3. the calamity of the dead group's wound of group may be caused
Consequence.4. the potential loss of accident increases：Chemical hazard source is large number of in each enterprise, once there is fire, blast or endanger
Dangerous chemical leakage spreads accident, and a position is subject to the failure effect of multiple containers.
The sudden environmental risk problem of chemical industry has become very important during human social development mainly asks
One of topic.The research of science and experience and lessons show, Sources controlling is effectively emergent with to greatest extent to avoid the generation of accident
Casualty loss is two requisite approach after reduction accident occurs.Therefore, the positive effort of national governments, takes and effectively arranges
Apply, reduce the risk in construction project or region, improve environmental pollution accident risk and meet an urgent need and prevention ability.It is numerous for dangerous matter sources
This aspect of Chemical Industry Park, particularly chemical enterprise compares the environmental risk assessment of the industrial area of concentration and has great showing
Sincere justice.
The content of the invention
The present invention is to overcome above-mentioned weak point, it is therefore intended that provide a kind of chemical industry garden based on the coupling in real time of disaster-ridden kind
Area's real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment, this method is for solving the key problem and change that chemical industrial park is built and manager is concerned about
The significant problem for solving is needed during the construction and development of work garden, objective evaluation is carried out and is effectively taken precautions against, mitigates ambient wind
Loss and impact that dangerous accident is caused；Chemical industrial park is reasonably planned, determine the protection of garden and periphery planning region away from
From；Determine the environmental risk bearing capacity of chemical industrial park, carry out effective Environmental risk management, it is steady to guarantee production safety and society
It is fixed, realize enterprise's benign development.
The present invention is to reach above-mentioned purpose by the following technical programs：A kind of chemical industrial park based on the coupling in real time of disaster-ridden kind
Real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment, comprises the steps：
(1) model is selected to make from the model of atmospheric diffusion of conventional specified risk material according to the specified risk material of chemical garden
For forecast model；
(2) analyzed according to model parameter and determine the random factor for affecting atmosphere pollution to spread, and random factor is carried out
Statistical analysis obtains its Probability Characteristics；
(3) based on Probability Characteristics, the simulation for carrying out pollutant Atmospheric Diffusion using Monte Carlo Analysis method is calculated；
(4) result of calculation of step (3) is compared with evaluation criterion, determines the protection distance of chemical industrial park enterprise；
(5) combinative prevention distance builds and is based on risk source inherent risk, prevention and control mechanism validity, the chemical industry of acceptor vulnerability
Garden Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System；
(6) catastrophe theory and catastrophe progression method are introduced, set chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System determines
Business risk grade in chemical industrial park is evaluated, for implementing corresponding emergency response mechanism and management strategy as garden administrative department
With reference to.
Preferably, the principle of the Monte Carlo Analysis method is as follows：Assumed function Y=f (X1,X2,X3,…,Xn),
Wherein known variables X1,X2,X3,…,XnProbability distribution；With a randomizer, directly or indirectly sampling obtains one group
Stochastic variable (X1, X2, X3..., Xn), the value of this group of stochastic variable is (X11,X21,X31,…,Xn1)；According to Y with regard to X1, X2,
X3..., XnFunctional relation, determine its functional value y1, wherein y1=(X11, X21, X31..., Xn1)；Repeatedly to input variable independence
Sampling several times, i.e. i=(1,2,3 ..., n), a collection of data from the sample survey y of function Y is just obtained1,y2,y3,…,yn；When
After the number of times of simulation reaches several times, the probability distribution and its numeral with the close function Y of Study system actual conditions is obtained
Feature.
Preferably, the determination of the protection distance follows people-oriented principle and preventing principle.
Preferably, the chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System of the step (5) is according to environmental risk system
System is theoretical, with reference to the characteristics of chemical industry and protection distance builds and obtains.
Preferably, step (6) binding mutation is theoretical and catastrophe progression method determines chemical industrial park business risk grade
The step of evaluation, is as follows：
1) according to chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System, respectively according in integrated risk evaluation index system
The inherent mechanism of action and relative importance size of element, sets up risk assessment catastrophic model；
2) standardization processing is made to the initial data of risk assessment catastrophic model bottom control variable index；
3) recursive operation of chemical industrial park business risk evaluation, the total person in servitude for trying to achieve evaluation objective are carried out according to normalization formula
Category angle value；
4) chemical industrial park business risk grade classification is five grades by the angle value that is always subordinate to according to evaluation objective：Pacify very much
Entirely, safety, Generally Recognized as safe, danger, be in extreme danger.
Preferably, the step 2) as standardization processing it is that the initial data of each control variables index is converted into into 0-1
Between the type that is the bigger the better data.
Preferably, described carry out chemical industrial park business risk evaluation and pass according to normalization formula to data after standardization
The median corresponding to all control variables is generated when returning computing, the median must follow non-when being evaluated using catastrophe theory
Principle of complementarity and principle of complementarity.
Preferably, always it is subordinate to angle value scope for 1.0-0.8 corresponding to the very safe class, corresponding to safe class
Be always subordinate to angle value scope for 0.8-0.6, be always subordinate to angle value scope for 0.6-0.4, danger etc. corresponding to Generally Recognized as safe grade
The angle value scope that is always subordinate to corresponding to level is 0.4-0.2, is in extreme danger corresponding to grade and is always subordinate to angle value scope for 0.2-0.
The beneficial effects of the present invention is：The present invention can realize the program evaluation and risk management of Chemical spectrography,
For the risk prevention power and level of risk management that improve chemical industrial park, promote the long-term stable development in garden, feasible region
Economic, society has very important significance with the sustainable development tool of environment.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the risk assessment schematic flow sheet of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet that embodiment of the present invention protection distance determines；
Fig. 3 is based on the chemical industrial park business risk grade evaluation rubric figure of catastrophe theory；
Fig. 4 is embodiment of the present invention risk assessment and risk management block diagram.
Specific embodiment
With reference to specific embodiment, the present invention is described further, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited in
This：
Embodiment：As shown in figure 1, a kind of chemical industrial park real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment based on the coupling in real time of disaster-ridden kind
Specifically include following steps：
1) protection distance is determined based on Monte Carlo analysis
During determination of the chemical industrial park enterprise with the protection distance asked of protection target is carried out, should follow following basic
Principle：1. people-oriented principle, the main object of protection is the personnel in the neighboring area of chemical industrial park, mainly residential block, business
Industry center, physical culture visual field shop etc., especially should pay the utmost attention to the crowd such as children, women, old man and school, hospital.2. prevent
Property principle, by protection distance determined by risk assessment only be prevention may occur Sudden Pollution Accident it is main
One of measure, chemical industrial park enterprise itself still needs and meets the existing pertinent regulations of country, such as firebreak, atmospheric environment protection away from
From and width of sanitary protection zone etc..With reference to the determination principle of protection distance as above, while by Monte Carlo Analysis method
In applying to the determination of chemical industrial park enterprise protection distance, the determination method flow of protection distance is as shown in Figure 2：
1. the model of atmospheric diffusion of conventional specified risk material is analyzed first, selects one of as suitable prediction mould
Type；
2. and then from the angle of model parameter, the main random factor of analyzing influence atmosphere pollution diffusion；
3. statistical analysis is carried out to the data of each random factor after, its Probability Characteristics is obtained；
4. then with Monte Carlo Analysis method pollutant Atmospheric Diffusion is carried out according to the probability distribution of known variables
Simulation is calculated；
5. result of calculation and evaluation criterion are compared the protection distance for determining chemical industrial park enterprise.
The principle of Monte Carlo Analysis method is as follows：
Assumed function Y=f (X1,X2,X3,…,Xn), wherein known variables X1,X2,X3,…,XnProbability distribution.With one
Directly or indirectly sampling obtains one group of stochastic variable (X to randomizer1,X2,X3,…,Xn), the value of this group of stochastic variable
For (X11,X21,X31,…,Xn1), then according to Y with regard to X1,X2,X3,…,XnFunctional relation, determine its functional value y1, i.e. y1=
(X11,X21,X31,…,Xn1).So repeatedly to input variable independent sampling value several times, i.e. i=(1,2,3 ..., n), just may be used
Obtain a collection of data from the sample survey y of function Y1,y2,y3,…,yn.When the number of times of simulation is enough, it is possible to obtain and research system
The probability distribution and its numerical characteristic of the close function Y of system actual conditions.
2) it is theoretical according to environmental risk system, with reference to the characteristics of chemical industry, build and be based on risk source inherent risk, prevention and control
The chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System of mechanism validity, acceptor vulnerability.
3) theoretical and catastrophe progression method the risk assessment of binding mutation
The theoretical general principle of binding mutation and catastrophe progression method determine the main step that chemical industrial park business risk is evaluated
Suddenly, as shown in Figure 3：
1. according to assessment indicator system, the inherent mechanism of action and relative importance according to each key element of evaluation system is big
It is little, set up risk assessment catastrophic model as shown in table 1 below：
Table 1
2. standardization processing is carried out to the initial data of bottom control variable index.Due to normalization formula in, bottom
Index expression is feature of the system state variables in different aspect, and its initial data span and dimension is differed,
Cannot be compared between data.Therefore, before being evaluated using normalizing formula, the initial data of each control variables index need to be turned
Turn to the data of the type that is the bigger the better between 0-1, i.e. initial data standardization.No matter index for be the bigger the better type or it is more little more
Good type, the type desired value that is the bigger the better that can be translated into by standardization between 0-1.
3. the recursive operation of chemical industrial park business risk evaluation is carried out according to normalizing formula, being always subordinate to for evaluation objective is tried to achieve
Angle value.According to initial fuzzy membership function value, the median as corresponding to normalizing formula can calculate all control variables, in this
Between be worth when being evaluated using catastrophe theory and must follow " incomplementarity " principle and " complementation " principle.
4) chemical industrial park risk level classification
Under normal circumstances, being always subordinate to angle value and chemical industrial park enterprise can be divided into five grades according to evaluation objective：
Very safe, safety, Generally Recognized as safe, danger, it is in extreme danger, it is as shown in table 2 below：
Table 2
It is that the assessment of chemical industrial park business risk and risk stratification management provide guidance, garden administrative department can be according to risk
Hierarchical level, implements corresponding emergency response mechanism and management strategy, the such as Fig. 4 of the relation between risk assessment and risk management institutes
Show.
The present invention as a result of above technical scheme, with significant technique effect and actually used value, Neng Goushi
The program evaluation and risk management of existing Chemical spectrography, for the risk prevention power and risk management water that improve chemical industrial park
Stable development that is flat, promoting garden long-term, economic, the social and environment sustainable development of feasible region has critically important meaning
Justice.
During the chemical industrial park real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment proposed in embodiment, known by material risk source
Not, and in chemical industrial park there is material risk source.By the principal risk source of each enterprise of comparative analysis, specified risk material and easily
Accident pattern is sent out, the main scenes that the enterprise of family typical case's risk accidents scene determines as risk protection distance are chosen.
Chemical industrial park should carry out the construction of risk emergency system, emergency reaction center is set up inside administration commission and sets up one
Platform, the resource of each side such as environmental protection, public security, fire-fighting, medical rescue, anti-flood control is integrated, and implements unified allocation of resources.Change
Work garden should set up level Four emergency response system, i.e. city's emergency reaction center, area's emergency response centers, chemical industrial park emergency response
The emergent branch center of enterprise in center and area, level Four response system is capable of achieving enterprise, and --- chemical industrial park --- area --- is between city
The docking of emergency response and linkage step by step.Wherein the emergency response centers of garden carry out joint work, public safety, fire-fighting, doctor
Treat first aid, environmental protection, the municipal administration unit such as speedily carry out rescue work and be equipped with the emergency center centralized office work that corresponding personnel concentrate on garden.
Emergency response centers, based on the security concepts of " putting prevention first ", should fully use for reference state under the guidance of relevant expert
Outer experience, and with reference to chemical industrial park feature, the overall prediction scheme of chemical industrial park emergency response is worked out, and environmental protection can be divided into, prevented
The some points of prediction schemes such as anti-of flood, and some emergency disposal prediction schemes for being specifically designed for hazardous chemical not of the same race.These prediction schemes and
Enterprise's emergency preplan is mutually linked in area, supporting up and down, is greatly improved chemical industrial park and tackles all kinds of accidental pollution event accidents
Emergency disposal ability.
Chemical industrial park emergency response system should collect information, transmission, feedback, region security monitoring, accident and disaster
Early warning, dispatch control, process management integrated system in one.Its public safety, road friendship to being related in chemical industrial park
Logical, fire-fighting, prevent and reduce natural disasters, environmental protection, medical first aid, municipal administration are speedily carried out rescue work and the problems such as accident, carry out unifying the place that receives a crime report
Put；And according to corresponding emergency preplan, coordination area Nei Ge enterprises, public security, fire-fighting inside and outside association area, take precautions against natural calamities, environmental protection, maritime affairs, urgency
Jiu Deng specialized departments, in time, effectively process various emergencies.
More than it is described be the present invention specific embodiment and the know-why used, if conception under this invention institute
The change of work, the function produced by it still without departing from specification and accompanying drawing covered it is spiritual when, should belong to the present invention
Protection domain.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of chemical industrial park real-time quantitative methods of risk assessment based on the in real time coupling of disaster-ridden kind, it is characterised in that include as
Lower step：
(1) model is selected as pre- from the model of atmospheric diffusion of conventional specified risk material according to the specified risk material of chemical garden
Survey model；
(2) analyzed according to model parameter and determine the random factor for affecting atmosphere pollution to spread, and random factor is counted
Analysis obtains its Probability Characteristics；
(3) based on Probability Characteristics, the simulation for carrying out pollutant Atmospheric Diffusion using Monte Carlo Analysis method is calculated；
(4) result of calculation of step (3) is compared with evaluation criterion, determines the protection distance of chemical industrial park enterprise；
(5) combinative prevention distance builds and is based on risk source inherent risk, prevention and control mechanism validity, the chemical industrial park of acceptor vulnerability
Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System；
(6) catastrophe theory and catastrophe progression method are introduced, set chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System determines chemical industry
Garden business risk grade is evaluated, for implementing the ginseng of corresponding emergency response mechanism and management strategy as garden administrative department
Examine.
2. according to claim 1 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：The principle of the Monte Carlo Analysis method is as follows：Assumed function Y=f (X1,X2,X3,…,Xn), wherein
Known variables X1,X2,X3,…,XnProbability distribution；With a randomizer, directly or indirectly one group of sampling acquirement is random
Variable (X1, X2, X3..., Xn), the value of this group of stochastic variable is (X11,X21,X31,…,Xn1)；According to Y with regard to X1, X2,
X3..., XnFunctional relation, determine its functional value y1, wherein y1=(X11, X21, X31..., Xn1)；Repeatedly to input variable independence
Sampling several times, i.e. i=(1,2,3 ..., n), a collection of data from the sample survey y of function Y is just obtained1,y2,y3,…,yn；When
After the number of times of simulation reaches several times, the probability distribution and its numeral with the close function Y of Study system actual conditions is obtained
Feature.
3. according to claim 1 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：The determination of the protection distance follows people-oriented principle and preventing principle.
4. according to claim 1 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：The chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System of the step (5) is managed according to environmental risk system
By, with reference to the characteristics of chemical industry and protection distance build obtain.
5. according to claim 1 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：Step (6) binding mutation is theoretical and catastrophe progression method determines chemical industrial park business risk grade evaluation
The step of it is as follows：
1) according to chemical industrial park Enterprise Integrated Risk Assessment Index System, according to each key element in integrated risk evaluation index system
The inherent mechanism of action and relative importance size, set up risk assessment catastrophic model；
2) standardization processing is made to the initial data of risk assessment catastrophic model bottom control variable index；
3) recursive operation of chemical industrial park business risk evaluation is carried out according to normalization formula, total degree of membership of evaluation objective is tried to achieve
Value；
4) chemical industrial park business risk grade classification is five grades by the angle value that is always subordinate to according to evaluation objective：Very safe, peace
Entirely, Generally Recognized as safe, danger, be in extreme danger.
6. according to claim 5 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：The step 2) as standardization processing it is that the initial data of each control variables index is converted between 0-1
The type that is the bigger the better data.
7. according to claim 5 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：The recurrence that according to normalization formula data after standardization are carried out with chemical industrial park business risk evaluation
The median corresponding to all control variables is generated during computing, the median must follow non-mutual when being evaluated using catastrophe theory
Mend principle and principle of complementarity.
8. according to claim 5 a kind of based on the real-time chemical industrial park real-time quantitative risk assessment side for coupling of disaster-ridden kind
Method, it is characterised in that：Always it is subordinate to angle value scope for 1.0-0.8 corresponding to the very safe class, corresponding to safe class
Always it is subordinate to angle value scope for 0.8-0.6, angle value scope is always subordinate to for 0.6-0.4, danger classes corresponding to Generally Recognized as safe grade
The corresponding angle value scope that is always subordinate to is 0.4-0.2, is in extreme danger corresponding to grade and is always subordinate to angle value scope for 0.2-0.
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