CN105023067A - Analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based chemical project environmental risk evaluation system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses an analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based chemical project environmental risk evaluation system and belongs to the field of environmental risk control and management. The system comprises the following steps: (1) establishing an environmental risk evaluation index system; (2) dividing the evaluation levels of the environmental risk evaluation index system, determining the standards for evaluation of indexes under different levels, and scoring the indexes; (3) determining the weight of individual index by applying the analytic hierarchy process; (4) carrying out environmental risk comprehensive evaluation by virtue of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to obtain a decision set; and (5) evaluating the decision set according to the maximum membership principle to obtain the environmental risk evaluation level. According to the technical scheme disclosed by the invention, the system is suitable for risk evaluation of environmental behaviors in all chemical project production processes, can be used for comprehensive risk evaluation, and is comprehensive in evaluation range, perfect in method and system, accurate in evaluation system and good in feasibility.

Description

Based on the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system of analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation

Technical field

The present invention relates to environmental risk control and management domain, more particularly, relate to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation.

Background technology

Chemical industry occupies critical role in the national economy of various countries, is basic industry and the mainstay industry of many countries.The speed of development of chemical industry and scale have direct impact to each department socioeconomic, and globalization chemical product annual value of production is more than 15,000 hundred million dollars.Because chemical industry is of a great variety, complex process, product are various, the pollutant kind discharged in production is many, quantity is large, toxicity is high, and therefore, chemical industry is heavy polluter.Meanwhile, chemical products in processing, storage, to use and the links such as offal treatment all likely produces a large amount of noxious material and influence ecological environment, jeopardizes human health.Development of chemical industry is walked sustainable development path and is had important practical significance for human economy, social development, so improve the environmental risk control of chemical project and management system is necessary, the prerequisite strengthening risk management has a complete risk evaluation system.Risk assessment is often called accident risk assessment, the main disastrous accident considering construction project operation process.The birth of environmental risk assessment, indicates the important turnover of environment protection strategy, and it can predict risk and manage before accident occurs, and reduces the harm of contingency occurrence probability and accident generation.

AHP-Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is organically combined analytical hierarchy process and Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment, analytical hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index, Fuzzy Pattern Recognition is used to carry out comprehensive evaluation to the evaluation result of each evaluation index, both complement each other, according to the grade determination environmental behaviour situation of each evaluation index, jointly improve reliability and the validity of evaluation.Chemical project production run is a complicated system, and choosing of evaluation index standard is fuzzyyer, therefore evaluation procedure we can choose method by degree of membership in fuzzy mathematics, finally determine risk class.Fuzzy mathematics method is more reasonable relative to other integrated evaluating method.

People constantly go deep into for the research of AHP-Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment.Chinese Patent Application No.: 201210140082.0, the applying date: on May 8th, 2012, publication date: on September 12nd, 2012, the invention provides a kind of intelligent grid integrated estimation system based on analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy overall evaluation.The object of this scheme studies the evaluating system of assessment intelligent grid development level, evaluation index and appraisal procedure, the evaluating system of a kind of applicable China intelligent grid construction needs is proposed, propose a kind of intelligent grid appraisal procedure based on Hierarchy Analysis Method and fuzzy overall evaluation, Efficient Evaluation China each department intelligent grid builds the intelligent development level of different stages of development.The current investigation and application field of AHP-Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment does not also set foot in chemical industry, the Environment Risk Assessment Methods of some chemical project is not also suitable for all chemical projects, therefore needs Comprehensive analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy overall evaluation to fill up the technological gap in chemical project production run risk assessment field.

Summary of the invention

1. the technical matters that will solve

For the existing chemical project existed in prior art Environment Risk Assessment Methods and be not suitable for all chemical project problems, and bias toward the problem of accident risk assessment, the invention provides the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation.It goes for the risk assessment of environmental behaviour in all chemical project production runes, can carry out Rate of aggregative risk, and can range of value wide, method system is perfect, evaluation result is accurate, and feasibility is good.

2. technical scheme

Object of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions.

Based on the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system of analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation, step is as follows:

(1) environmental risk assessment index system is set up;

(2) divide environmental risk assessment indication system judgment grade, determine the standards of grading of indices under different brackets, membership function calculating is carried out to index;

(3) application level analytic approach agriculture products weight;

(4) adopt Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to carry out environmental risk comprehensive assessment, obtain decision set;

(5) according to maximum membership grade principle, decision set is evaluated, draw environmental risk assessment grade.

Further, the environmental risk assessment index system described in step (1) is built by Delphi Experts consultation method.

Further, described in step (1) to set up environmental risk assessment index system step as follows: first carry out Data acquisition, the hierarchical structure of agriculture products system, theoretical analysis and DDD analysis method is used to carry out evaluation index primary election to set up general evaluation index system, evaluation index is carried out subsequently preferred by monomer inspection and overall inspection, upcheck feasibility analysis and Correctness Analysis of monomer carries out, overall inspection passes through importance test, necessity inspection and integrity check carry out, after evaluation index preferably, pass through principal component analysis (PCA), independence is analyzed, Experts consultation method determines concrete evaluation index, finally complete the final foundation of assessment indicator system.

Further, the analytical hierarchy process step that adopts of step (3) is as follows:

1. 1-9 scaling law Judgement Matricies is adopted;

2. Sum-Product algorithm is used to solve judgment matrix;

3. consistency check;

Above three steps, agriculture products weight.

Further, step is Judgement Matricies 1., carries out qualitative description respectively to the relative importance of the evaluation index of each level, and carries out quantization means, by expert consulting, to the relative importance Judgement Matricies of every one deck factor by numeral accurately.

Further, in described step (4), Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment step is as follows:

1. set of factors is determined;

2. Comment gathers is determined;

3. subordinate function is determined;

4. fuzzy relation matrix is constructed;

5. fuzzy matrix compound operation, obtains decision set.

Further, 3. described determines in subordinate function, and qualitative index degree of membership is determined by number percent statistic law, and quantitative target degree of membership is determined by half trapezoidal profile function.

3. beneficial effect

Compared to prior art, the invention has the advantages that:

(1) this method overcomes the Environment Risk Assessment Methods of original chemical project and is not suitable for the defect of all chemical projects, can carry out comprehensive environmental risk assessment for all chemical projects, can range of value wide;

(2) comprehensively to use the application process that " build at the beginning of the investigation-environmental behaviour of AHP-Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment-on the spot and origin cause of formation identification-index system-expert opinion and index screening " combines, method system is perfect, and accurately, feasibility is good for appraisement system;

(3) chemical project production run is a complicated system, choosing of evaluation index standard is fuzzyyer, therefore evaluation procedure we can choose method by degree of membership in fuzzy mathematics, finally determine risk class, fuzzy mathematics method is more applicable for chemical project risk assessment relative to other integrated evaluating method, strong adaptability, reliability and validity strong.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is concrete steps schematic diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram that assessment indicator system builds.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with Figure of description and concrete case study on implementation, the present invention is described in detail.

Embodiment 1

As shown in Figure 1, the embodiment that the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system that the present invention is based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation adopts is as follows:

(1) assessment indicator system is set up

The main processes of chemical project is analyzed, and applies the main environment risk factors that Delphi Experts consultation method determination technique relates to;

The concrete implementation step of Delphi Experts consultation method is as follows:

1, determine to investigate exercise question, draft questionnaire.

2, expert group is formed.According to the ken required for problem, determine expert, quantity is 5-20 people.

3, to all experts, the problem that will predict and relevant requirements are proposed.

4, the material that receives according to them of each expert, proposes the prediction suggestion of oneself.

5, every expert is judged that suggestion gathers first time, arrange into chart, contrast, then be distributed to every expert, allow expert compare oneself different opinions with other people, revise oneself suggestion and judgement.Also every expertise can be arranged, or ask other higher experts of identity to be commented on, then these suggestions be divided again and give every expert, so that they are with reference to the suggestion of rear amendment oneself.

6, the suggestion for revision of all experts is collected, gather, be again distributed to every expert, to secondly revise.By wheel opinion collection and for expert feedback information be the key link of Delphi method.Opinion collection and information feed back generally will through three, four-wheel.When feeding back to expert, only provide varied opinions, but the concrete name of the expert delivering varied opinions is not described.This process repeats, until each expert no longer changes the suggestion of oneself.

7, overall treatment is carried out to expertise.

The environment and behavior study result in water, soil, air three kinds of surrounding mediums of the environmental risk factor high according to representativeness and characteristic contamination, in conjunction with expert opinion, builds the environmental risk assessment index system be applicable in all chemical project production runes.As shown in Figure 2, first carry out Data acquisition, the hierarchical structure of agriculture products system, theoretical analysis and DDD analysis method is used to carry out evaluation index primary election to set up general evaluation index system, evaluation index is carried out subsequently preferred by monomer inspection and overall inspection, upcheck feasibility analysis and Correctness Analysis of monomer carries out, overall inspection passes through importance test, necessity inspection and integrity check carry out, after evaluation index preferably, pass through principal component analysis (PCA), independence is analyzed, Experts consultation method sets up concrete assessment indicator system, carry out the determination of evaluation index, finally complete the final foundation of assessment indicator system.

(2) risk assessment, divides the opinion rating of environmental risk assessment index system, determines the standards of grading of indices under different brackets, carry out membership function calculating to index;

The determination of index standards of grading: in investigation and the comprehensive basis analyzing characteristic contamination polluting property in typification work project construction process, determine high, medium and low several opinion ratings such as grade, and the standards of grading that in clearly each opinion rating, index is corresponding.

Index weights is determined and environmental risk assessment: adopt analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of indices, adopts Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to carry out environmental risk comprehensive assessment.

(3) analytical hierarchy process agriculture products weight is used

1. Judgement Matricies

1-9 proportion quotiety method is utilized by expert, respectively qualitative description is carried out to the relative importance of the evaluation index of each level, and carry out quantization means by numeral accurately, pass through expert consulting, investigate the relative importance of B layer factor and A layer factor, can show that A-B judgment matrix is in table 1.

Table 1:A-B judgment matrix

2. Sum-Product algorithm is used to solve judgment matrix

To draw under simple target layer A by the relative weighting of comparison element, i.e. Mode of Level Simple Sequence:

$w_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{N}{\Σ}}\frac{a_{ij}}{N}$

Obtain column vector, $\stackrel{\‾}{w}={\[w_1,w_2,w_3,...,w_N\]}^T,i=1,2,3,...,N$

The W vector of gained is done normalized respectively, respectively by the orderweight vector of comparison element required by obtaining under single criterion.

3. consistency check

${\mathrm{\λ}}_{max}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\Σ}}\frac{{\left({\mathrm{Aw}}_i\right)}_i}{{\mathrm{nw}}_i},i=1,2,...,N$

$\begin{array}{cc}CI=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{max}-n}{n-1}& CR=\frac{CI}{RI}\end{array}$

In formula, A is A-B judgment matrix, and n is judgment matrix exponent number, λ _maxfor judgment matrix eigenvalue of maximum.

Table 2: the value of Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI

Judgment matrix approach degree is higher, and CI value is less.For the judgment matrix on n>3 rank, when CR≤0.1, i.e. λ _maxthe relative error CI departing from n be no more than Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI ten/for the moment, it is generally acknowledged that the consistance of judgment matrix is acceptable.Above three steps, agriculture products weight.

(4) Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is used to carry out comprehensive evaluation

1. set of factors is determined

Set of factors X={X _l, X ₂..., X _m, m the factor altogether.

2. Comment gathers is determined

Comment gathers Y={Y ₁, Y ₂..., Y _n, n comment level altogether.Determine that namely evaluation criterion system determines Comment gathers.Evaluation result can be divided into " one-level " (Y ₁), " secondary " (Y ₂), " three grades " (Y ₃), " level Four " (Y ₄) etc. four class.

3. subordinate function is determined

Subordinate function is used to portray certain factor X _ito Y in Comment gathers _ithe approximation ratio of rank.

The determination of a, qualitative index degree of membership

Adopt number percent statistic law, the method directly the evaluation result being evaluated object is carried out number percent statistics and using the degree of membership of result as qualitative index.

The determination of b, quantitative target degree of membership

Half trapezoidal profile function, as subordinate function, determines quantitative target degree of membership.

4. fuzzy relation matrix is constructed

Suppose have two domains to be respectively:

Set of factors X={X _l, X ₂..., X _i..., X _m, X _ifor factor of evaluation (evaluation index);

Comment gathers Y={Y ₁, Y ₂..., Y _j... Y _n, Y _jfor evaluation approach.

Respectively single factor evaluation is carried out to element whole in X, then can obtain a fuzzy relation matrix [R] from X to Y,

$\[R\]=\left[\begin{array}{c}{r}_{11},r_{12},\mathrm{...},r_{1n}\\ r_{21},r_{22},\mathrm{...},r_{2n}\\ \mathrm{...},\mathrm{...},\mathrm{...},\mathrm{...}\\ r_{m1},r_{m2},\mathrm{...},r_{mn}\end{array}\right],$

5. fuzzy matrix compound operation

The compound operation of matrix, namely algorithmically carries out compose operation by W and [R].Its formula is as follows:

W⊕[R]＝[B]

Wherein: [B]=(b _l, b ₂..., b _n), represent the vector of the possibility coefficient composition of each evaluation approach on Comment gathers.For decision set.In order to consider the impact of each factor on disposal and utilization process, adopt: " weighted mean type " compound operation, operation law is as follows:

$b_j=min\[1,{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^n{W}_i{R}_{ij}\]$

(5) evaluate

After obtaining decision set [B], maximum membership grade principle is utilized to carry out grade evaluation to evaluation object.

Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the present invention is described further, but is not used for limiting the scope of the invention.Selecting typical organic chemical industry's solid waste process to dispose enterprise is case study object, to investigate based on the environmental evaluation Impact Report book with Monitoring Data and enterprise on the spot, set up environmental risk assessment index system, carry out Environmental risk levels evaluation, for the Environmental risk management of enterprise's chemical project provides foundation.As shown in Figure 1.

(1) assessment indicator system is set up

On the basis identifying main environment risk factors, present case is by assessment indicator system Establishing process, choice for use specific aim stronger, there is index that represent meaning, that can reflect environmental risk, set up bag Chinese juniper material harmfulness factor, production technology factor, production facility factor, environmental hazard sexual factor and environmental management factor 6 aspects, 17 key elements, the environmental risk assessment index system that is multi-level, multi objective of 32 specific targets passes through Delphi Experts consultation method constructive system, expert's quantity is 20 people, the visible table 3 of its System Framework.

Table 3: environmental risk assessment index system

In this environmental risk assessment index system, the process condition that the materializing strategy system in rule layer process disposing technique level (B3), burning place existing system, stabilization system, security landfill system and utilization system apply to according to case enterprise practical selects one or more.The process disposing technique that present case enterprise adopts is burning processing system, so only select three specific targets such as the dual firing chamber temperature, bioxin of burning processing system (C7) and correspondence controls, flue gas controlling extent in process disposing technique level (B3).

(2) environmental risk assessment is carried out

Determine the risk class criteria for classifying, first clear and definite risk class in solid waste environmental risk assessment quantification of targets process, carry out classification according to the actual conditions of each index, corresponding assignment is level Four, i.e. high levels of risk, excessive risk level, risk level and low-risk level.Set up each index grade quantizing standard.Material harmfulness has the status of outbalance, and material harmfulness relates to various concrete material type, and the standard of quantification is the act.std with reference to being correlated with material.Be mainly weigh foundation with LC50 as Environmental Toxicological, simultaneously with reference to the dangerous standard of noxious material in " occupational exposure toxicant Harm level classification " (GB50844) and " occupational exposure toxicant Harm level classification and industry citing thereof ", according to evaluation industry type toxicity rank judged to common hazardous waste type and pass judgment on its respective risk grade.And technological level, production facility, environmental hazard and Environmental risk management index more lay particular emphasis on the measurement of integrated risk comparatively speaking, the standard of quantification is more depend on qualitative normative reference.As environmental hazard index, according to " dangerous waste and medical waste disposal facility Environmental Impact Assessment of Construction Items engineering philosophy ((trying) environment-development (2004) No. 58 literary compositions), to determine that the various factors in factory site can be divided into A, B two class, category-A is for meeting, and category-B is the essential condition of site than choosing quality.Only consider the risk class of high and low two Ge Ji Do in this index, if construction criteria only meets category-A requirement, be so divided into high risk class, if meet A, B requirement simultaneously, be so divided into low-risk level.If " professional prediction scheme " index in Environmental risk management divides according to the situation of improving with or without professional prediction scheme and professional prediction scheme.Without specialty independently prediction scheme be divided into high risk class; There is professional prediction scheme, but be undesirablely divided into excessive risk level; Specialty prediction scheme substantially meets the requirements and is divided into medium risk level; Perfect professional emergency preplan is had to be divided into low-risk level.As shown in the table 4 risk class criteria for classifying:

Table 4: the risk class criteria for classifying

(3) analytical hierarchy process agriculture products weight is used

1. first Judgement Matricies, by expert consulting, by 1-9 scaling law, examine or check the relative importance of B layer factor, C layer factor and D layer factor respectively, can draw A-B, B-C, C-D judgment matrix, result is with shown in table 5:

Table 5:A-B judgment matrix

3. use Sum-Product algorithm to solve judgment matrix, calculate the arithmetic mean of the every row all elements of judgment matrix

According to following formulae discovery:

$\stackrel{\‾}{w_i}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{6}{\Σ}}{a}_{ij}(j=1,2,3,4,5,6)$

?

$\stackrel{\‾}{\mathrm{\ω}}={\[1.33,0.92,1.25,1.08,0.92,0.92\]}^T$

W is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of each factor of B layer relative to A layer:

$\stackrel{\‾}{\mathrm{\ω}}={\[0.21,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14\]}^T$

Thus obtaining the weight of B layer index relative to A layer, environmental behaviour risk evaluation system indices weight is summarized in table 6.

4. the eigenvalue of maximum of judgment matrix is calculated

Use Matlba software to calculate, run Matlba program, A-B judgment matrix is set to A, and calculate judgment matrix eigenvalue of maximum, input command " λ=eig (A) ", result is the proper vector of A, thus determines maximal eigenvector.The results are shown in Table 5.

4. consistency check

Calculate the coincident indicator of judgment matrix, check its consistance.The CR of each judgment matrix is all less than 0.1, therefore passes through consistency check.

According to above-mentioned steps, calculate C, D layer index successively relative to the weight of B layer and carry out consistency check, will table 7 be the results are summarized in.

Table 6: the weight of environmental behaviour Risk Assessment Index System indices

Table 7: index weights and consistency check

Environmental behaviour in organic chemical industry's solid waste process disposal process is subject to many-sided impact, be mainly reflected in material harmfulness, storing and unloading, process disposing technique level, production facility, surrounding environment susceptibility and these indexs of Environmental risk management, for the feature of environmental behaviour in outstanding solid waste process disposal process, the weight of two-level index in index as physicochemical property, Environmental Toxicological, risk prevention measure is higher, the outstanding impact that it produces environmental behaviour.In material harmfulness index, the weight of physicochemical property, Environmental Toxicological index is higher, fully demonstrates the environmental risk of solid waste in process disposal process and is subject to characteristic contamination and has a strong impact on.

(4) fuzzy overall evaluation

I, set of factors

According to the environmental behaviour in solid waste process disposal process, set up the assessment indicator system with hierarchical structure.Whole index system comprises material harmfulness, technological level, production facility, environmental hazard, Environmental risk management index five parts.

X={ is water-soluble, volatility, inflammable and explosive property, corrosivity, toxicity, environmental persistence, environmental background concentration, monitoring frequency, storage facilities, transhipment facility, administrative distance, dual firing chamber temperature bioxin controls, and flue gas controls, and domestic and international level is advanced, service life of equipment, construction criteria A, B, technician, operating personnel, maintenance frequency, special blowdown ditch, emergent accident pond, controls and on-line monitoring system automatically, specialty prediction scheme, the prediction scheme rehearsal frequency, rescue leading organ, matenal support system }.

II, Comment gathers

The measured value of factor of evaluation is divided into 4 grades, i.e. Y={1,2,3,4}, herein 1 represents low-risk level.

III, expert graded is adopted to obtain qualitative index Comment gathers

Invite expert according to opinion rating standard, the qualitative index of solid waste process disposal process is given a mark, adopt centesimal system statistic law data craft suggestion, finally obtain the Comment gathers of qualitative index.Be defined as example with " the inflammable and explosive property of D3 " Comment gathers, invite 20 experts to carry out grade evaluation to this index, have 12 experts to think " one-level, low-risk level do not relate to inflammable and explosive ", divided by the degree of membership " 0.6 " obtaining " one-level " after expert's sum; Have 8 to think " secondary, medium risk level, flammable ", then the degree of membership of " secondary " is 0.4, and gathering the fuzzy evaluating matrix obtaining D3 is [0.6,0.4,0,0].

IV, by membership function calculation in quantity index Comment gathers

Be defined as example with " D1 " Comment gathers, use half trapezoidal profile function as subordinate function, the elaboration process of quantitative target degree of membership is described.Extract the information about D1:

The grading standard of the water-soluble index of table 8

Known carbon monoxide x=800, A1=100, A2=1000, A3=10000, concrete computation process is as follows:

$\begin{array}{cc}{R}_1=\frac{A_2-X}{A_2-A_1}=\frac{1000-800}{1000-100}=0.22& A_1\≤X\≤A_2\end{array}$

$\begin{array}{cc}{R}_2=\frac{X-A_1}{A_2-A_1}=\frac{800-100}{1000-100}=0.78& A_1<X<A_2\end{array}$

R ₃＝0

R ₄＝0

V, fuzzy relation matrix is constructed

R ₁-R ₄for the comment numerical value of different risk class, therefore, obtain D1 Comment gathers for [0.22,0.78,0,0], represent carbon monoxide water-soluble have 22% may belong to low-risk level, have 78% may belong to medium risk level level.Calculate the degree of membership of other indexs respectively according to above-mentioned steps, degree of membership gathers and obtains fuzzy overall evaluation matrix, in table 9 the most at last.

The each index value of table 9 and degree of membership

VI, fuzzy matrix compound operation, obtains fuzzy evaluation results

1. one-level comprehensive evaluation

According to D in formula W ⊕ [R]=[B] parameter layer C layer ₁~ D ₃₂index Fuzzy evaluation result, in table 10.

In formula: each subordinate factor that B comprises for C layer is relative to its comprehensive fuzzy operation result; W is the weight of each factor of C layer index subordinate relative to it; R is fuzzy evaluating matrix, represents the relation of each factor of C layer index subordinate relative to Comment gathers.

Table 10:C layer D ₁~ D ₃₂index Fuzzy evaluation result

Gather above-mentioned result of calculation, generate one-level evaluation result, in table 11 by each index Fuzzy operation result.

Table 11: one-level evaluation result

2. secondary comprehensive evaluation

According to C in formula W ⊕ [R]=[B] calculation criterion layer B layer ₁~ C ₁₇index Fuzzy evaluation result, in table 12.

Table 12:B layer C ₁~ C ₁₇index Fuzzy evaluation result

According to above-mentioned result of calculation, generate two-level appraisement result, in table 13 by each index Fuzzy operation result.

Table 13: two-level appraisement result

3. environmental behaviour risk assessment

Can by B _iregarding that the single-factor of A (destination layer) judges as, is then W ⊕ [R]=[B] to the Comprehensive Evaluation of destination layer A

Wherein, B is the comprehensive fuzzy operation result of each subordinate factor of comprising of A (destination layer) relative to A (destination layer); W is the weight of the relative A layer of B layer subordinate Ge Yin, known:

R is fuzzy evaluating matrix, represents the relation of each factor of destination layer A subordinate relative to Comprehensive Evaluation result, namely from secondary comprehensive evaluation result:

$R=\left[\begin{array}{c}0.16,0.25,0.41,0.18\\ 0.17,0.19,0.45,0.19\\ 0.1,0,0,0.9\\ 0.16,0.49,0.35,0\\ 0.9,0,0,0.1\\ 0.38,0,0.46,0.16\end{array}\right]$

After matrix multiple computing, obtain following result, environmental behaviour risk evaluation results is in table 14.

B＝w*R＝[0.15,0.16,0.24,0.45]

Table 14: environmental behaviour risk evaluation results

(5), evaluation result analysis

Calculate all kinds of exponential size by above-mentioned, be specifically analyzed as follows according to standard:

Evaluate hazardous waste process company limited environmental risk have 28% may belong to " high levels of risk ", have 16% may belong to " excessive risk level ", have 29% may belong to " medium risk level ", have 27% may belong to " low-risk level ".According to maximum membership grade principle, in the degree of membership of four grades, the numerical value of " 29% " is maximum, and therefore, this enterprise is " medium risk level (50 ~ <80 divides) " with the risk of the environment that the existing system of burning place is technique.Illustrate in general, this danger is given up and is disposed the control of business risk and management exists risk, haves much room for improvement.

More than utilize concrete case to be described the invention and embodiment thereof, this description does not have restricted, when not deviating from spirit of the present invention or essential characteristic, can realize the present invention in other specific forms.One of embodiment of the also just the invention shown in accompanying drawing, actual structure is not limited thereto, and any Reference numeral in claim should not limit involved claim.So, if those of ordinary skill in the art enlightens by it, when not departing from this creation aim, designing the frame mode similar to this technical scheme and case study on implementation without creationary, the protection domain of this patent all should be belonged to.

Claims (7)

1., based on the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system of analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation, step is as follows:

(1) environmental risk assessment index system is set up;

(2) divide the opinion rating of environmental risk assessment index system, determine the standards of grading of indices under different brackets, membership function calculating is carried out to index;

(3) application level analytic approach agriculture products weight;

(4) adopt Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to carry out environmental risk comprehensive assessment, obtain decision set;

(5) according to maximum membership grade principle, decision set is evaluated, draw environmental risk assessment grade.

2. according to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation shown in claim 1, it is characterized in that: the environmental risk assessment index system described in step (1) is built by Delphi Experts consultation method.

3. the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation according to claim 1 or 2, it is characterized in that: described in step (1) to set up environmental risk assessment index system step as follows: first carry out Data acquisition, the hierarchical structure of agriculture products system, theoretical analysis and DDD analysis method is used to carry out evaluation index primary election to set up general evaluation index system, evaluation index is carried out subsequently preferred by monomer inspection and overall inspection, upcheck feasibility analysis and Correctness Analysis of monomer carries out, overall inspection passes through importance test, necessity inspection and integrity check carry out, after evaluation index preferably, pass through principal component analysis (PCA), independence is analyzed, Experts consultation method determines concrete evaluation index, finally complete the final foundation of assessment indicator system.

4. according to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation shown in claim 1, it is characterized in that: the analytical hierarchy process step that step (3) adopts is as follows:

1. 1-9 scaling law Judgement Matricies is adopted;

2. Sum-Product algorithm is used to solve judgment matrix;

3. consistency check;

Above three steps, agriculture products weight.

5. according to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation shown in claim 4, it is characterized in that: 1. Judgement Matricies, respectively qualitative description is carried out to the relative importance of the evaluation index of each level, and carry out quantization means by numeral accurately, by expert consulting, to the relative importance Judgement Matricies of every one deck factor.

6. according to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation shown in claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step (4), Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment step is as follows:

1. set of factors is determined;

2. Comment gathers is determined;

3. subordinate function is determined;

4. fuzzy relation matrix is constructed;

5. fuzzy matrix compound operation, obtains decision set.

7. according to the Environment Impact Assessment of Chemical Construction Project system based on analytical hierarchy process-fuzzy overall evaluation shown in claim 6, it is characterized in that: described step (4) Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment 3. determine in subordinate function, qualitative index degree of membership is determined by number percent statistic law, and quantitative target degree of membership is determined by half trapezoidal profile function.