CN105719085A - Regional comprehensive environmental risk assessment and division method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a regional comprehensive environmental risk assessment and division method. The environmental risk assessment and division can be regionally carried out to a large extent. The regional comprehensive environmental risk assessment and division method is characterized in that the essential factors of the environmental risks can be analyzed according to the regional comprehensive environmental risk system theory; a regional environmental risk assessment index system can be built, and the essential factors comprise risk sources, risk control mechanisms, risk fields, and risk receptors; the weight values and the assessment values of various indexes in the assessment index system can be determined based on the built assessment index system; the comprehensive environmental risk value of the assessment region can be acquired according to the weight values and the assessment values of various indexes of the assessment index system; the risk division of the assessment region can be carried out according to the preset classification method according to the comprehensive environmental risk value of the assessment region. The regional comprehensive environmental risk assessment and division method is suitable for the environmental science and technology field.

Description

A kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods

Technical field

The present invention relates to technical field of environmental science, specifically relate to Environmental risk management, particularly relate to a kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods.

Background technology

Integrated environment risk assessment is an emerging field in current environment protection work; refer to that the possible loss that health, social economy, ecosystem etc. are caused by the harm that various socio-economic activity caused or faced (including: natural disaster) of the mankind is estimated; and it is managed the process with decision-making accordingly; it be born be on the one hand environmental conservation in the urgent need to, be also the inevitable outcome of Development of Environmental Science on the other hand.

The integrated environment risk assessment study of China is started in the nineties in 20th century, mainly to introduce and to apply external achievement in research, it does not have the appraisal procedure of oneself, method and technology.After the nineties, national legislation and clearly propose integrated environment risk assessment content in management system.1993; People's Republic of China's environmental conservation industry standard " environmental impact assessment fire protection technology (general provisions) " (HJ/T2.1-93) regulation of national environmental protection cloth promulgated by the ministries or commissions of the Central Government: for environmental risk accident; when being necessary and satisfy the requirements, integrated environment risk assessment or the environmental risk analysis of construction project should be carried out.2012, Environmental Protection Agency issued " affecting the notice environment-development number of evaluation management Preventing Environmental risk about further environmental enhancement ", and further environmental enhancement affects evaluation management.

Along with the development of integrated environment risk assessment, the concept of environmental risk zoning is also approved by people gradually, and environmental risk zoning is based on the time space distribution of environmental risk, and it is carried out regional differentiation and conforming division.The thinking that environmental risk zoning is analyzed as a kind of novel Regional environment risk, is the necessary links of integrated environment risk assessment and Environmental risk management.Integrated environment fire risk district should follow the principle of systematicness, concordance, dominance and dynamic.

Difference according to zoning unit and space scale etc., integrated environment risk assessment and the available method of zoning include overlapping surfaces method, information diffusion of main components, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), mathematics method, evaluation index system method etc., wherein, evaluation index system method because it is easy, quickly, efficiently, feature of low consumption be subject to the favor of numerous scholar.

At present, about environmental risk assessment and Research on zoning, because of problems such as assessment technique method restrictions, on assessment yardstick, major part research concentrates within the scope of the Small-scale space such as construction project, industrial park or functional areas, and it is generally estimated just for single risks and assumptions.Along with taking place frequently of social development and regional environment event, it is necessary to for based on integrated environment risk assessment more than the mesoscale regions such as province, city and region.Due to the existence of various risks and assumptions influencing each other in a region, only using single environmental risk factor as evaluation object, it is clear that can not the comprehensive effect of true reflecting regional environmental factors.From this, the single risks and assumptions integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization for little range scale can not meet the needs that the environmental risk in more than mesoscale region is supervised.

Environmental risk event refers to that environment risk source puts on receptor through certain route of exposure, as shown in Figure 1, wherein, receptor refers to the ingredient being subject to or being likely to being subject to certain pollutant or other stress factors adverse effects, environmental risk four key element (including: risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field, risk receptor) paving mutually and coordinates, and constitutes the essential condition that risk occurs.Existing integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method is mainly using Evaluation Environment risk source hazardness as target, fail to include the assessments such as control mechanism effectiveness, risk field feature, receptor vulnerability in evaluation system, ignore rear three important function in environmental risk assessment system, the result making assessment zoning can not be distributed by objective evaluation Regional environment risk, thus the local real environmental risk level in assessment district can not be reflected completely.

In addition, there is also, for the method for integrated environment risk assessment, the problem that theory and practice exists gap.At present, the principle of integrated environment risk assessment, theoretical frame basically form, and many countries have also identified the importance of integrated environment risk assessment, and carry out integrated environment risk assessment by the means such as make laws and regulations.But in concrete practice, but there is bigger gap, tend not to the method for integrated environment risk assessment to apply to flexibly in real work.

Summary of the invention

The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods, the needs of the environmental risk supervision in more than mesoscale region can not have been met with the single risks and assumptions integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method for little range scale solved existing for prior art, and existing integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method ignores control mechanism effectiveness, risk field feature, the effect in environmental risk assessment system of the receptor vulnerability, the problem causing can not reflecting the local real environmental risk level in assessment district completely really.

For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods, including:

Theoretical according to regional complex environmental risk system, the key element that environmental risk is occurred is analyzed, and builds regional complex environmental risk assessment index system, and wherein, described key element includes: risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field and risk receptor；

Based on the evaluation index system built, it is determined that the weighted value of each index and point value of evaluation in evaluation index system；

Weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, obtain the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；

Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, carries out risk subregion according to default sorting technique to assessment district.

Further, described evaluation index system includes: destination layer, system layer, rule layer, indicator layer, index computing formula, and index effect and achievement data are originated；

Wherein, described system layer includes: risk source hazardness, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic and risk receptor vulnerability；

Described risk source hazardness, for describing the potential hazard degree in the source producing environmental hazard；

Described risk-control mechanism effectiveness, for describing the control effect to risk source and Environmental risk management level；

Described risk field characteristic, for characterizing the complexity that risks and assumptions is accumulated in space aspects, shifted；

Described risk receptor vulnerability, is used for describing risk recipient, including the mankind and ecosystem, characterizes the recovery capability after the sensitivity being subject to environmental risk interference and risk generation.

Further, if a certain achievement data in assessment district cannot obtain, then utilize the mode of equivalent substitution, choose close index and carry out integrated environment risk assessment.

Further, described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes:

The weighted value of each index in evaluation index system is determined respectively by state optimization method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Further, described state optimization method includes: optimum state method and worst state method；

Described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by state optimization method:

The optimal solution of optimum state method is determined by following formulaOptimal solution with worst state method

$w_j^{+}={\[\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1}\]}^{-1}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1},j\∈M$

$w_j^{-}={\[\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1}\]}^{-1}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1},j\∈M$

Optimal solution according to the optimum state method determinedOptimal solution with worst state methodBy the weighted value w of following formula agriculture products:

$w={\mathrm{aw}}_j^{+}+{\mathrm{bw}}_j^{-},a+b=1$

In formula,Represent optimum state right weight optimal solution,Represent worst state right weight optimal solution, r_ijRepresenting canonical matrix element, n represents index number to be assessed, and m represents assessment district unit number, and a, b represent optimum state method optimal solution, the worst state method optimal solution percentage contribution to weighted value respectively.

Further, described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by analytic hierarchy process (AHP):

According to each index influence degree to environmental risk, development of judgment matrix；

According to the judgment matrix built, adopt geometric method parameter layer relative to rule layer weighted value；

The ratio C .R. according to coincident indicator and the Aver-age Random Consistency Index weighted value to obtaining carries out consistency check, if C.R. < 0.1, then judges that described judgment matrix has better transitivity, concordance；

$C.I.=\frac{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_{max}-m}{m-1}$

$C.R.=\frac{C.I.}{R.I.}$

In formula, C.I. represents coincident indicator, λ_maxRepresenting eigenvalue of maximum, m represents evaluation index number, and C.R. is the ratio of coincident indicator and Aver-age Random Consistency Index, represents consistency ration, and R.I. represents Aver-age Random Consistency Index.

Further, the described weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, the integrated environment value-at-risk obtaining assessment district includes:

It is weighted by the addition method and is estimated district's integrated environment risk assessment, obtain risk source hazard risks value R_H, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk R_E, risk field characteristic value R_I, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk R_VAnd integrated environment value-at-risk_R:

$R_k=\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{w}_{ij}{r}_{ij},k=H,E,I,V$

R=∑ R_k

In formula, H, E, I, V represent the risk source hazardness in system layer, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic, risk receptor vulnerability, R respectively_kRepresent assessment the risk source hazard risks value in district, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk, risk field characteristic value, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk, w respectively_ijRepresent each index weights in indicator layer, r_ijRepresenting the point value of evaluation that each index is corresponding, m represents the rule layer number that each system layer is corresponding, and n represents index number in the indicator layer that each rule layer is corresponding.

Further, the described integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, according to default sorting technique, assessment district is carried out risk subregion and include:

Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, is carried out risk subregion by sorting technique in GIS-Geographic Information System to assessing district and risk is visualized.

Further, include after the described integrated environment value-at-risk determining assessment district:

Quantity according to the generation of each assessment district local environment accident, each assessment locality, district GDP, be analyzed with the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district, verify the accuracy of the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district.

Further, described according to default sorting technique to assessment district carry out risk subregion after include:

For each risk area that division obtains, passing through gray relative analysis method, it is determined that the degree of association of each key element, obtaining each risk area affects the Primary element of integrated environment risk.

Having the beneficial effect that of the technique scheme of the present invention:

In such scheme, conducted a research by the region in large scale, regional complex environmental risk system is regarded as and is formed by and controls the entirety that the various key elements of environmental risk organically combine, theoretical according to integrated environment risk system, the key element that environmental risk is occurred is analyzed, and builds regional complex environmental risk assessment index system；Based on the evaluation index system built, it is determined that the weighted value of each index and point value of evaluation in evaluation index system；Weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, obtain the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, according to default sorting technique, assessment district is carried out risk subregion, thus providing reference method for the integrated environment risk assessment in the large scale such as region and zoning, integrated environment value-at-risk according to obtaining can also formulate Environmental risk management measure, make under the premise providing decision-making foundation to management decision-maker, provide support for regional environment is livable in interior sustainable development.

Accompanying drawing explanation

The environmental risk generating process schematic diagram that Fig. 1 provides for the embodiment of the present invention；

The method flow diagram of the regional complex environmental risk assessment that Fig. 2 provides for the embodiment of the present invention and zoning methods；

The integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System frame diagram that Fig. 3 provides for the embodiment of the present invention；

The integrated environment value-at-risk checking schematic diagram in the assessment district that Fig. 4 embodiment of the present invention provides.

Detailed description of the invention

For making the technical problem to be solved in the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly, it is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and the specific embodiments.

The present invention is directed to the needs that the existing single risks and assumptions integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method for little range scale can not meet the environmental risk supervision in more than mesoscale region, and existing integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method ignores control mechanism effectiveness, risk field feature, the effect in environmental risk assessment system of the receptor vulnerability, the problem causing can not reflecting the local real environmental risk level in assessment district completely really, it is provided that a kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods.

As in figure 2 it is shown, a kind of regional complex environmental risk assessment of embodiment of the present invention offer and zoning methods, including:

S1: theoretical according to regional complex environmental risk system, the key element that environmental risk is occurred is analyzed, and builds regional complex environmental risk assessment index system, and wherein, described key element includes: risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field and risk receptor；

In the embodiment of the present invention, from regional complex environmental risk system theory, the process that environmental risk occurs includes risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field and risk receptor four elements (or being called four subsystems), between each subsystem interrelated, influence each other, each key element on the impact of environmental risk system respectively by risk source hazardness, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic and and risk receptor vulnerability characterize.

Wherein, risk source hazardness, for describing the potential hazard degree in the source producing environmental hazard；Risk-control mechanism effectiveness, for describing the control effect to risk source and Environmental risk management level, the former is Sources controlling, and the latter is process control；Risk field characteristic, for characterizing the complexity that risks and assumptions is accumulated in space aspects, shifted；Risk receptor vulnerability, is used for describing risk recipient, including the mankind and ecosystem, characterizes the recovery capability after the sensitivity being subject to environmental risk interference and risk generation.

S1: based on the evaluation index system built, it is determined that the weighted value of each index and point value of evaluation in evaluation index system；

S1: according to the weighted value of index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, obtain the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；

S1: the integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, carries out risk subregion according to default sorting technique to assessment district.

Regional complex environmental risk assessment described in the embodiment of the present invention and zoning methods, conducted a research by the region in large scale, regional complex environmental risk system is regarded as and is formed by and controls the entirety that the various key elements of environmental risk organically combine, theoretical according to integrated environment risk system, the key element that environmental risk is occurred is analyzed, and builds regional complex environmental risk assessment index system；Based on the evaluation index system built, it is determined that the weighted value of each index and point value of evaluation in evaluation index system；Weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, obtain the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, according to default sorting technique, assessment district is carried out risk subregion, thus providing reference method for the integrated environment risk assessment in the large scale such as region and zoning, integrated environment value-at-risk according to obtaining can also formulate Environmental risk management measure, make under the premise providing decision-making foundation to management decision-maker, provide support for regional environment is livable in interior sustainable development.

In the embodiment of the present invention, according to the regional complex environmental risk assessment index system that regional complex environmental risk system theory is set up, this evaluation index system includes: destination layer, system layer, rule layer, indicator layer, index computing formula, index effect and achievement data source, as shown in table 1 and Fig. 3；Wherein, described system layer includes: risk source hazardness, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic and risk receptor vulnerability；Each index assessment area environmental risk from different perspectives in indicator layer.

In the embodiment of the present invention, from four key elements that environmental risk occurs, build integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System, consider risk source, impact that environmental risk is produced by risk-control mechanism, risk field, risk receptor, thus under the premise of each factor of consideration extensive, comprehensive, environmental risk being estimated.And this integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System builds theoretical easy to be understandable, clear in structure is it can be readily appreciated that less to user theoretical knowledge reserve requirements, workable.

Table 1 integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System

Note:

[a] assesses locality, district statistical yearbook；[b] assesses district's local environment protection yearbook；[c] assesses district's local environment state publication；

[d] assesses local environment protection website, the Room, district；[e] assesses locality, district water resource publication；[f] China Statistical Yearbook；

[g] China Environmental State Bulletin；[h] water resources in china publication.

In the detailed description of the invention of aforementioned areas integrated environment risk assessment and regionalization method, further, if a certain achievement data in assessment district cannot obtain, then utilize the mode of equivalent substitution, choose close index and carry out integrated environment risk assessment.

In the embodiment of the present invention, it is contemplated that in evaluation index system each achievement data can availability, when assessing the more difficult acquisition of locality, district achievement data, it is possible to adopt the mode of equivalent substitution, choose close index and carry out integrated environment risk assessment；Also according to assessment district local conditions, evaluation index system rationally can be increased and decreased, thus increasing the motility of regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods.

In the embodiment of the present invention, based on the evaluation index system built, determine that being weighted by the addition method calculates assessment district integrated environment value-at-risk, namely adopt the weight product with point value of evaluation as assessment district integrated environment value-at-risk, concrete: through type (1) obtains the risk source hazard risks value R in assessment district_H, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk R_E, risk field characteristic value R_I, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk R_V；

Through type (2) obtains assessment district integrated environment value-at-risk R:

$R_k=\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{w}_{ij}{r}_{ij},k=H,E,I,V$ Formula (1)

R=∑ R_kFormula (2)

In formula, H, E, I, V represent the risk source hazardness in system layer, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic, risk receptor vulnerability, R respectively_kRepresent assessment the risk source hazard risks value in district, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk, risk field characteristic value, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk, w respectively_ijRepresent each index weights in indicator layer, r_ijRepresenting the point value of evaluation that each index is corresponding, m represents the rule layer number that each system layer is corresponding, and n represents index number in the indicator layer that each rule layer is corresponding.

In the embodiment of the present invention, this WSM according to evaluation index system elemental, features such as having that layer of structure is clear, computational methods are easy, theoretical should be readily appreciated that, method applicability is wide.

In the embodiment of the present invention, before calculating the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district, need to first determine each index weights in evaluation index system, characterize each index percentage contribution to integrated environment risk with this.

In the embodiment of the present invention, determine the weighted value of each index in evaluation index system respectively by state optimization method (OptimizationMethod, OM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AnalyticHierarchyProcess, AHP).Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), as the weighing computation method generally used at present, in conjunction with expert graded and qualitative-and-quantitative method, makes decision-making stratification, structuring.And state optimization method is also called subjective and objective combined techniques, while the subjective preferences that varying environment key element state is existed by the reflection mankind, the objectivity of coupling system again, the defining method making weight is more reasonable.Both approaches is from different principle, while risk division result is complemented each other, carrying out contrast verification, weighing index percentage contribution from different subjective and objective angles, thus improving the reliability of integrated environment value-at-risk.

In the embodiment of the present invention, state optimization method includes: optimum state method and worst state method.Assume to improve as far as possible on the whole close to ideal point (remote) index weights to obtain the best (worst) evaluation result, it is desirable to take into account the contribution function of each index in assessment, make each index share weight as far as possible.

In the embodiment of the present invention, determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by state optimization method:

By Criterion matrix, optimizing model and build Lagrangian on this basis, and the structure Lagrangian built is sought local derviation；

Through type (3) tries to achieve the optimal solution of optimum state methodThrough type (4) tries to achieve the optimal solution of worst state methodOptimal solution according to the optimum state method tried to achieveOptimal solution with worst state methodThe weighted value w of the index that through type (5) is tried to achieve:

$w_j^{+}={\&lsqb;\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1}\&rsqb;}^{-1}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1},j\&Element;M$ Formula (3)

$w_j^{-}={\&lsqb;\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1}\&rsqb;}^{-1}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1},j\&Element;M$ Formula (4)

$w={\mathrm{aw}}_j^{+}+{\mathrm{bw}}_j^{-},a+b=1$ Formula (5)

In formula,Represent optimum state right weight optimal solution,Represent worst state right weight optimal solution, r_ijRepresenting canonical matrix element, n represents index number to be assessed, and m represents assessment district unit number, and a, b represent optimum state method optimal solution, the worst state method optimal solution percentage contribution to weighted value respectively.

In the embodiment of the present invention, determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by analytic hierarchy process (AHP):

According to each index influence degree to environmental risk, it is possible to reference to 1～9 scale implication, development of judgment matrix；

According to the judgment matrix built, adopt geometric method parameter layer relative to rule layer weighted value, and represent W=(ω in the form of vectors₁,ω₂,...,ω_m)^T,；

And the weighted value of calculated index is carried out consistency check, concrete, through type (6) calculates coincident indicator C.I., and through type (7) calculates consistency ration C.R., if consistency ration C.R. < 0.1, then judge that judgment matrix has better transitivity, concordance:

$C.I.=\frac{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_{max}-m}{m-1}$ Formula (6)

$C.R.=\frac{C.I.}{R.I.}$ Formula (7)

In formula, C.I. represents coincident indicator, λ_maxRepresenting eigenvalue of maximum, m represents evaluation index number, and C.R. is the ratio of coincident indicator and Aver-age Random Consistency Index, represents consistency ration, and R.I. represents Aver-age Random Consistency Index, can refer to empirical value.

In the embodiment of the present invention, determine in evaluation index system after the weighted value of each index, also need to determine the point value of evaluation that each index is corresponding, concrete, consulting each province and city yearbook, on the basis of environment publication, sort out assessment district related data, and data based on this, meaning in conjunction with each achievement data, at utmost to characterize each region at risk source, risk-control mechanism, the diversity of risk field and risk receptor aspect is starting point, and combine the corresponding specification of country, the grade scale existed in standard, carry out quantization modulation, and according to quantization modulation result, obtain the point value of evaluation that each index is corresponding, it is specifically shown in table 2:

The weight of each index of table 2 integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System and quantization modulation

In the embodiment of the present invention, according to the point value of evaluation that the weighted value of index each in the evaluation index system obtained and each index are corresponding, through type (1) obtains the risk source hazard risks value R in assessment district_H, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk R_E, risk field characteristic value R_I, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk R_V, and through type (2) obtain assessment district integrated environment value-at-risk R.

In the embodiment of the present invention, use state optimization method (OM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP), WSM calculated risk source hazard risks value, control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk, risk field characteristic value, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk, integrated environment value-at-risk as shown in table 3:

Each key element value-at-risk and integrated environment value-at-risk under table 3OM, AHP weighing computation method

In the embodiment of the present invention, the integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, according to default sorting technique, assessment district is carried out risk subregion and include:

Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, with GIS-Geographic Information System (such as, ArcGIS) for aid, it is possible to by NaturalBreaks therein (Jenks) sorting technique, assessment district is carried out risk subregion and obtains each value-at-risk scattergram, risk is visualized.Can be high risk area, high risk district, apoplexy danger zone, relatively low risk area, risk area, 5 kinds of low-risk district by Area division of earthquake disaster assessment from high to low by risk.

In the embodiment of the present invention, include after the described integrated environment value-at-risk determining assessment district:

Quantity according to the generation of each assessment district local environment accident, each assessment locality, district GDP, be analyzed with the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district, verify the accuracy of the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the checking of value-at-risk, the number of times mainly occurred based on investigation and assessment district environmental accident, find, high risk area is generally also environmental accident district occurred frequently in history, as shown in Figure 4, proves that the method has stronger application with this by inquiry.In addition to this it is possible to the relation of analysis and evaluation district locality GDP and integrated environment value-at-risk, it also it is one of method that value-at-risk is verified.Therefore, the checking to Risk Results, can according to the local practical situation in assessment district and data can availability, assessment result is verified, proof scheme is flexible.

In the embodiment of the present invention, include assessing after district carries out risk subregion according to default sorting technique:

For each risk area that division obtains, passing through gray relative analysis method, it is determined that the degree of association of each key element, obtaining each risk area affects the Primary element of integrated environment risk.Concrete, from the element of environmental risk system, analyze the internal characteristics of each risk area and outside difference；For each risk area, adopting gray relative analysis method, calculate the degree of association of each key element, thus obtaining each risk area to affect the Primary element of integrated environment risk, result is in Table 4:

Table 4 study area integrated environment risk division result

Note: can with "+", " ++ ", " +++ " represent respectively dependency " weak ", " in ", " by force ".

In the embodiment of the present invention, by using gray relative analysis method that the leading factor of each risk area is analyzed, can take to reduce the measure of risk probability of happening targetedly, be not only a part for risk assessment, be also the important step of environmental management.

In the embodiment of the present invention, according to integrated environment theory of risk assessment, each key element (risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field, risk receptor) in environmental risk generating process is analyzed, between each key element interrelated, influence each other, described key element on the impact of environmental risk system respectively by risk source hazardness, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic and and risk receptor vulnerability characterize, on this basis, integrated environment Risk Assessment Index System is set up；Outside adopting analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate each index weights, introduce again state optimization method and calculate each index weights, to the mutual calibration of weights；And utilize WSM to calculate the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；The last integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, with ArcGIS for aid, carries out relative risk subregion and by risk distribution visualization display by NaturalBreaks therein (Jenks) sorting technique；Also quoting Grey Incidence Analysis and analyze the leading factor that each risk area risk occurs, thus providing reference method for environmental risk subregion in the large scale such as region, offering help in interior sustainable development for regional environment is livable.

The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention; it should be pointed out that, for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from principle of the present invention; can also making some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. a regional complex environmental risk assessment and zoning methods, it is characterised in that including:

Theoretical according to regional complex environmental risk system, the key element that environmental risk is occurred is analyzed, and builds regional complex environmental risk assessment index system, and wherein, described key element includes: risk source, risk-control mechanism, risk field and risk receptor；

Based on the evaluation index system built, it is determined that the weighted value of each index and point value of evaluation in evaluation index system；

Weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, obtain the integrated environment value-at-risk in assessment district；

Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, carries out risk subregion according to default sorting technique to assessment district.

2. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that described evaluation index system includes: destination layer, system layer, rule layer, indicator layer, index computing formula, index effect and achievement data source；

Wherein, described system layer includes: risk source hazardness, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic and risk receptor vulnerability；

Described risk source hazardness, for describing the potential hazard degree in the source producing environmental hazard；

Described risk-control mechanism effectiveness, for describing the control effect to risk source and Environmental risk management level；

Described risk field characteristic, for characterizing the complexity that risks and assumptions is accumulated in space aspects, shifted；

Described risk receptor vulnerability, is used for describing risk recipient, including the mankind and ecosystem, characterizes the recovery capability after the sensitivity being subject to environmental risk interference and risk generation.

3. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 2 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that if a certain achievement data in assessment district cannot obtain, then utilize the mode of equivalent substitution, choose close index and carry out integrated environment risk assessment.

4. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes:

The weighted value of each index in evaluation index system is determined respectively by state optimization method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

5. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 4 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that described state optimization method includes: optimum state method and worst state method；

Described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by state optimization method:

The optimal solution of optimum state method is determined by following formulaOptimal solution with worst state method

$w_j^{+}={\&lsqb;\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1}\&rsqb;}^{-1}{(n-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij})}^{-1},j\&Element;M$

$w_j^{-}={\&lsqb;\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1}\&rsqb;}^{-1}{\left(\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{r}_{ij}\right)}^{-1},j\&Element;M$

Optimal solution according to the optimum state method determinedOptimal solution with worst state methodBy the weighted value w of following formula agriculture products:

$w={\mathrm{aw}}_j^{+}+{\mathrm{bw}}_j^{-},a+b=1$

In formula,Represent optimum state right weight optimal solution,Represent worst state right weight optimal solution, r_ijRepresenting canonical matrix element, n represents index number to be assessed, and m represents assessment district unit number, and a, b represent optimum state method optimal solution, the worst state method optimal solution percentage contribution to weighted value respectively.

6. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 4 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that described determine that in evaluation index system, the weighted value of each index includes by analytic hierarchy process (AHP):

According to each index influence degree to environmental risk, development of judgment matrix；

According to the judgment matrix built, adopt geometric method parameter layer relative to rule layer weighted value；

The ratio C .R. according to coincident indicator and the Aver-age Random Consistency Index weighted value to obtaining carries out consistency check, if C.R. < 0.1, then judges that described judgment matrix has better transitivity, concordance；

$C.I.=\frac{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_{\max }-m}{m-1}$

$C.R.=\frac{C.I.}{R.I.}$

In formula, C.I. represents coincident indicator, λ_maxRepresenting eigenvalue of maximum, m represents evaluation index number, and C.R. is the ratio of coincident indicator and Aver-age Random Consistency Index, represents consistency ration, and R.I. represents Aver-age Random Consistency Index.

7. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that the described weighted value according to index each in the evaluation index system determined and point value of evaluation, the integrated environment value-at-risk obtaining assessment district includes:

It is weighted by the addition method and is estimated district's integrated environment risk assessment, obtain risk source hazard risks value R_H, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk R_E, risk field characteristic value R_I, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk R_VAnd integrated environment value-at-risk R:

$R_k=\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{w}_{ij}{r}_{ij},k=H,E,I,V$

R=∑ R_k

In formula, H, E, I, V represent the risk source hazardness in system layer, risk-control mechanism effectiveness, risk field characteristic, risk receptor vulnerability, R respectively_kRepresent assessment the risk source hazard risks value in district, risk-control mechanism effectiveness value-at-risk, risk field characteristic value, receptor vulnerability value-at-risk, w respectively_ijRepresent each index weights in indicator layer, r_ijRepresenting the point value of evaluation that each index is corresponding, m represents the rule layer number that each system layer is corresponding, and n represents index number in the indicator layer that each rule layer is corresponding.

8. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that the described integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, carries out risk subregion according to default sorting technique to assessment district and includes:

Integrated environment value-at-risk according to assessment district, is carried out risk subregion by sorting technique in GIS-Geographic Information System to assessing district and risk is visualized.

9. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that include after the described integrated environment value-at-risk determining assessment district:

Quantity according to the generation of each assessment district local environment accident, each assessment locality, district GDP, be analyzed with the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district, verify the accuracy of the integrated environment value-at-risk in each assessment district.

10. regional complex environmental risk assessment according to claim 1 and zoning methods, it is characterised in that described according to default sorting technique to assessment district carry out risk subregion after include:

For each risk area that division obtains, passing through gray relative analysis method, it is determined that the degree of association of each key element, obtaining each risk area affects the Primary element of integrated environment risk.