CN109816264B - Risk assessment method and system for water environment of regional burst watershed - Google Patents
Risk assessment method and system for water environment of regional burst watershed Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk assessment method for a water environment of a regional sudden drainage basin, which comprises the following steps: setting a risk evaluation system based on a network, and evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of regional enterprises according to model operation values and situation settings by setting the number of the regional enterprises with unit area environmental risk in a specific region where a target storage place is located; determining the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of the area according to the percentage value of the length of the area environment risk road section to the total length of the area along the river road; evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination according to the model operation value and the situation setting; and finally, combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the evaluation determination area with the destination road transportation comprehensive risk level stored in the evaluation determination area, outputting the comprehensive environment risk level of the determination area after calculation, and finally determining an incremental hazardous chemical scheduling and storage scheme. The invention also discloses a risk assessment system for the water environment of the regional sudden drainage basin for implementing the method.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of environmental risk monitoring, in particular to a risk assessment method and system for water environment of a sudden drainage basin in a specific geographical area.
Background
In recent years, with the rapid development of economy in China, the demand of dangerous chemicals is increasing. With the increasing number of dangerous chemical transports, stores and the frequent occurrence of dangerous chemical accidents. Dangerous chemicals are different from common goods, and due to the particularity of the dangerous chemicals and the easiness of accidents in production, transportation, loading and unloading links, once an accident occurs, the influence time is long and the influence range is wide, so that huge losses can be caused to personal and property safety of residents around roads or warehouses, surrounding environments and public property.
According to the environmental protection law of the people's republic of China, the emergency management method of the people's republic of China, the emergency handling law of the people's republic of China, the emergency management method of emergency environmental events, the environmental risk assessment of road transportation emergency environmental events at the storage destination of dangerous chemicals (hereinafter referred to as dangerous chemicals) is guided to be developed, the emergency plan compilation of the emergency environmental events of local governments, competent departments, enterprises and the like is scientifically supported, the regional environmental risk control level is improved, and the technical method is formulated. The method comprises the following steps that one of the following situations is provided, the environmental risk assessment of the road transportation emergency environment event of the storage destination of the hazardous chemical substance is suggested to be assessed or re-assessed in time, (1) the risk assessment of the road transportation environment of the storage destination of the hazardous chemical substance is carried out while the transportation behavior of the hazardous chemical substance exists, or the assessment is carried out for 5 years; (2) the dangerous chemical storage destination road transportation route changes, including changing the route, adding a new route and the like; (3) serious and above sudden environmental events caused by dangerous chemical leakage occur on the dangerous chemical transportation line; (4) the transportation types of hazardous chemicals are changed.
In the prior art, for environmental risk assessment and assistant decision-making, expert experience is mainly adopted for assessment and decision-making, which often has the defects of different, incomplete, non-systematic, non-deep assessment and decision-making results and the like, and meanwhile, for accurate understanding and actual execution of a scheme, experts are also required to continuously provide subsequent support.
In the prior art, the university of southern China's science and engineering in the Chinese invention application 201810170048.5 discloses a system for evaluating dangerous chemical transportation risk and leakage diffusion accidents, which comprises a dangerous chemical accident probability estimation module for calculating the occurrence probability of dangerous chemical accidents, a pool fire, BELEVE accident consequence estimation module and a VCE accident consequence estimation module for calculating the relative derivative accident occurrence probability according to the ignited probability of leaked substances, an accident leakage diffusion module for estimating the dangerous chemical leakage probability caused by dangerous chemical accidents, and an acceptable risk level analysis module; and the acceptable risk level analysis module judges the risk according to the probability and the consequence of the first four modules and the risk acceptable criterion ALARP principle. The system carries out preliminary risk assessment on formulated transportation tasks and routes by setting a risk assessment model before transportation, and carries out division of dangerous areas after accidents occur, so that intelligent transportation of hazardous chemical substances is more perfect, the safety of transportation of the hazardous chemical substances is improved, and the accident rate is reduced.
However, the technical scheme proposed in the patent application only starts from the risk assessment of hazardous chemical substance transportation units, and provides a method and a system for assessing hazardous chemical substance transportation risk and leakage diffusion accidents based on an accident probability estimation mathematical model, wherein the method and the system assist in implementing optimization of hazardous chemical substance transportation lines and reducing accident occurrence rate through risk assessment in the process of hazardous chemical substance transportation; and further, dangerous areas are divided after dangerous chemical leakage diffusion accidents, so that a more scientific escape range is provided for victims and surrounding people, and accident loss is reduced. Particularly, the technical scheme does not consider the ecological safety influence degree of environment sensitive receptors (such as drainage basin water bodies, atmosphere and organisms) and the like in the geographical area (or administrative area, environmental protection treatment responsibility administration scribing area and the like) of each road section, and the environmental hazard degree, control and treatment cost and the like after the occurrence of the transportation accident of each road section in the road transportation scheduling and storage process of various incremental (transportation and newly produced) hazardous chemical storage destinations from the perspective of environmental protection and treatment of specific geographical areas and specific drainage basins.
Therefore, in the prior art, from the perspective of area managers of incremental hazardous chemical substance operation scheduling and area environmental protection and emergency treatment, in the selection process of systematically and scientifically evaluating the storage places of the hazardous chemical substance targets, the influence of accident risks such as road leakage and the like on environment sensitive receptors, particularly drainage basin water environments in the areas where the hazardous chemical substance targets are stored cannot be systematically and scientifically evaluated, and accordingly, environmental risk road sections are screened and graded according to the influence, so that corresponding scientific evaluation methods and decision bases are provided for managers of governments, road administration departments, environmental protection management departments, traffic management departments and hazardous chemical substance storage, transportation and production enterprises, and the schemes such as accurately determining and managing the storage places of the incremental hazardous chemical substance targets and the like are achieved, and the purposes of protecting the environment safety of the areas and reducing the accident rate and the degree of environmental damage during accidents are achieved. Meanwhile, the technical means of standardization, process, datamation and normalization are needed to be researched, so that the subsequent correct understanding and execution of the obtained evaluation scheme by a management department are facilitated without depending on the understanding and guidance of a specific expert.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for carrying out scientific evaluation and decision assistance on a system by taking an area where an incremental hazardous chemical object storage place is located as an object and scientifically determining an incremental hazardous chemical scheduling and object storage scheme, so as to overcome the defects in the prior art.
The invention particularly provides a risk assessment method for a water environment of a sudden drainage basin in a region where an incremental dangerous chemical object is stored, namely a specific region, wherein a risk assessment system based on a network is arranged to assess the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of one region according to the determined number of environment risk enterprises in unit area of a geographic region; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the mobile risk source of one area according to the ratio of the length of the area environmental risk road section to the total length of the area along the river road; finally, integrating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level, and grading the regional comprehensive environment risk; and further taking the planned line for storing the hazardous chemical substances provided by the system as an auxiliary decision basis for finally determining the scheduling and storage scheme (including a target storage place, the types and the quantity of the hazardous chemical substances and the like) of the incremental hazardous chemical substances.
The invention also aims to provide a risk assessment system for the water environment of the regional sudden drainage basin, which comprises a basic information management module, an enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module, a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module, a regional comprehensive environment risk assessment module, an environment risk assessment module and an auxiliary decision module; evaluating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of a region according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the region through an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module; evaluating the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one area by a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module according to the ratio of the length of the regional environment risk road section to the total length of the regional river road; the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module integrates the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level, and carries out level division on the regional comprehensive environment risk; the method comprises the steps of completing calculation of a dangerous chemical storage place transportation risk index through an environmental risk assessment module, dividing a road transportation path of a dangerous chemical storage destination into a plurality of environmental risk road sections by taking a water environment sensitive receptor as a node, and then carrying out environmental risk assessment and environmental risk grade division on the environmental risk road sections one by one; determining the level of the environmental risk of the road section with the environmental risk by combining the level of the environmental sensitive receptors; the auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating an environmental event when the emergency environmental event managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module in the area where the hazardous chemical target is stored is subjected to emergency treatment; the method can realize the scheduling of incremental hazardous chemicals and the prediction and simulation of the emergency environmental event of the area where the target storage place is located, so as to improve the environmental emergency disposal level and reduce the harm influence and the treatment cost.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a risk assessment method for water environment of a regional sudden watershed comprises the following steps:
(1) information acquisition of enterprise hazardous chemicals in area
Determining the geographical area range where the incremental hazardous chemical substance target storage place is to be evaluated, and setting a risk evaluation system based on a network, and setting a basic information management module in the system for acquiring, managing and evaluating the number of hazardous chemical substance production enterprises, storage types of the hazardous chemical substance production enterprises, the level of the hazardous chemical substance, storage quantity or production quantity in the area, and the water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprises are located;
(2) intra-regional enterprise comprehensive risk level determination
Setting an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and evaluating the regional enterprise comprehensive environment risk level according to model operation value and situation setting for the number of the regional unit area environment risk enterprises;
(3) in-area storage destination road transport integrated risk level determination
Setting a target storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and determining the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one region according to the percentage value of the length of the regional environment risk road section in the total length of the region along the river road; evaluating the road transportation comprehensive environment risk level of the regional target storage destination according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
(4) assessing regional integrated environmental risk levels
Setting a regional comprehensive environment risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the evaluation region with the target storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk level in the evaluation region, and outputting the comprehensive environment risk level of the region after calculation; and comprehensively judging and determining a target storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, planning a transportation line according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, and finally determining an incremental hazardous chemical substance scheduling and storing scheme.
The step (2) of evaluating and determining the comprehensive risk level of the enterprise in the region specifically comprises the following steps:
the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to a heavy environmental risk enterprise of 100, a weight to a large environmental risk enterprise of 20, and a weight to a general environmental risk enterprise of 1; then the formula S of the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module is passedgd＝100Sgd1+20Sgd2+1Sgd3After the operation, S can be obtainedgdCalculating the score according to the model of (S)gdEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SgdNot less than 40, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5<Sgd<40, the environmental risk rating is a greater environmental risk; sgdLess than or equal to 5, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk.
The step (3) of evaluating the comprehensive risk level determination of the road transportation of the target storage destination in the area specifically comprises the following steps:
the target storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to the heavy environmental risk road section as 1, the heavy environmental risk road section as 0.2 and the general environmental risk road section as 0.01; then the formula S of the comprehensive risk assessment module for road transportation of the target storage destination is passedyd＝Syd1+0.2Syd2+0.01Syd3After the operation, S can be obtainedydCalculating the score of the model; finally according to SydEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SydNot less than 40%, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5 percent of<Syd<40%, the environmental risk level is a greater environmental risk; sydLess than or equal to 5 percent, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk.
The network-based risk assessment system is provided with an environmental risk assessment module, and an environmental risk identification sub-module is arranged in the environmental risk assessment module and is used for identifying a water environment risk receptor, a water environment risk source and water environment risk substance information around a road transportation leakage path of a storage destination of hazardous chemical substances;
setting an environment risk evaluation submodule, analyzing and processing the identified risk source by the environment risk evaluation submodule, and evaluating the risk source environment risk road section and division according to the evaluation model; taking an environment sensitive receptor as a datum point, taking a standard limit value of a representation index of a hazardous chemical substance in water as a basis, and performing backward extrapolation on the upstream to obtain a critical point, wherein the critical point is a Z point when the pollutant is leaked at the position, and the pollutant at the position of a downstream environment sensitive receptor reaches the standard; the point Z is a risk-free road section, namely if a dangerous chemical substance leaks from the road section, the water body related pollutants at a downstream environment sensitive receptor cannot exceed the standard; the section below the Z point is a risky section, namely if a hazardous chemical substance leaks on the section, the water body related pollutants at the downstream environment sensitive receptor exceed the standard, namely the environment sensitive receptor and a hazardous chemical substance transportation route in the Z point are risky sections, the hazardous chemical substance leaks above the Z point and has no risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor, the hazardous chemical substance leaks below the Z point and has risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor, and the distance between the environment sensitive receptor and the Z point of the critical point is the length of the section with the environmental risk;
the environmental risk assessment submodule has a calculation formula based on the standard limit value of the environmental risk road section length model in the zero-dimensional model as follows:
Si＝qi/Qwater j(1)
Si-standard limit value of representation index of i-th dangerous chemical in water environment, mg/L
qi-single leakage amount of i-th dangerous chemical single vehicle, g
QWater j-the amount of water between the point of leakage of the hazardous chemical to the jth water environment sensitive receptor, m3
QWater j＝Qj×t(2)
QjRiver flow m from hazardous chemical leakage point to environmentally sensitive receptor3/s
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
QWater jThe amount of water between the dangerous chemical leakage point and the jth water environment sensitive receptor,m3
t＝Lj/uj(3)
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
Lj-distance m between dangerous chemical leakage point and jth water environment sensitive receptor
uj-river flow rate m/s between hazardous chemical leakage point and environmentally sensitive receptor
Combining the above formulas (1), (2) and (3), the dangerous chemical target storage destination road transportation environment risk distance L between the ith dangerous chemical corresponding to the jth water environment sensitive receptorijThe estimation formula is as follows:
Lij＝qi×uj/(Qj×Si)(4)
for certain dangerous chemicals, different environment sensitive receptors can calculate corresponding environment risk road sections;
for a one-dimensional steady-state water quality model and a one-dimensional dynamic mixed model which ignore dispersion, the length of an environmental risk road section can be further calculated;
determining the leakage time of the hazardous chemical substances, wherein when the hazardous chemical substance leakage event occurs, the leakage time influences the initial concentration of the hazardous chemical substances entering the river, the leakage rate of the liquid of the hazardous chemical substances is calculated by using a Bernoulli equation, and then the leakage time is obtained according to the ratio of the transportation volume of the hazardous chemical substances to the leakage rate;
rate of hazardous chemical leakage
In the formula:
QL-the leakage rate of hazardous chemicals, kg/s;
Cd-the leakage coefficient of hazardous chemicals, which is usually 0.6-0.64;
a-area of cleavage, m2；
P is the pressure of the medium in the container, Pa;
P0-ambient pressure, Pa;
g-gravitational acceleration;
h-height of liquid level above the breach, m;
rho-density of dangerous chemical, kg/m3；
Determining the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river, wherein the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is determined according to the distance between the top of an offshore dike, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is calculated by the percentage of the maximum amount of dangerous chemicals transported by a single vehicle, the distance between the top of the offshore dike is divided into 200 meters, 100 meters, 50 meters, 10 meters and 0 meter, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is 10%, 25%, 65%, 90% and 100%, and the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river can be ignored when the distance between the top of the offshore dike is more than 200 meters.
The risk assessment method of the water environment of the sudden drainage basin in the designated assessment area, namely the area where the dangerous chemical target is stored, further comprises the steps of arranging an environmental risk grade assessment module in the risk assessment system based on the network, and determining the environmental risk grade of a road section with environmental risk by combining the grade of an environmental sensitive receptor; when the influence of the primary sensitive receptor is greater than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a major environmental risk road section by an evaluation system; when the influence of the secondary sensitive receptors is larger than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a section with higher environmental risk by an evaluation system; when the influence of the three-level sensitive receptors is larger than the set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a general environmental risk road section by the evaluation system.
A risk assessment system for regional burst basin water environment for implementing the method comprises the following modules which are connected and operated based on a network:
the basic information management module is used for acquiring, managing and evaluating the quantity of dangerous chemical production enterprises in a determined region, namely the region where the target storage area of the incremental dangerous chemical is located, the storage types, the grades, the storage quantity or the production quantity of the dangerous chemical in the dangerous chemical production enterprises and the water environment information of the drainage basin where the enterprises are located;
the enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module is used for determining the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level in a determined area according to the number of the environmental risk enterprises in the unit area of the area; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
the target storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module is used for determining the comprehensive environmental risk level of the mobile risk source of one region according to the percentage value of the length of the regional environmental risk road section in the total length of the region along the river road; evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
the regional comprehensive environment risk assessment module is used for combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the assessment and determination region with the destination road transportation comprehensive risk level stored in the assessment and determination region to determine a regional comprehensive environment risk level;
the system firstly evaluates and determines the target storage destination of the incremental hazardous chemical, plans a transportation line according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical and finally determines the scheduling and storage scheme of the incremental hazardous chemical.
The risk assessment system for the water environment in the regional sudden watershed further comprises:
the environmental risk evaluation module is used for completing calculation of a transport risk index of a dangerous chemical storage place and carrying out environmental risk evaluation and environmental risk division;
the environmental risk assessment module includes:
the environment risk identification submodule is used for identifying water environment risk receptors, water environment risk sources and water environment risk substance information of hazardous chemicals around the leakage path of the enterprise park;
and the environment risk evaluation submodule is used for analyzing and processing the risk source identified by the environment risk identification submodule and establishing an evaluation model for evaluating the risk source environment risk road sections and division.
The risk assessment system for the water environment of the regional sudden watershed further comprises:
and the environmental risk grade evaluation module is used for determining the environmental risk grade of the road section for the road section with the environmental risk by combining the grade of the environmental sensitive receptors.
The auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating an environmental event when the emergency environmental event managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module in the region where the hazardous chemical target is stored is emergently disposed;
the assistant decision module comprises:
the control visualization sub-module is used for visually displaying disposal processes under different risk source accident conditions based on the emergency disposal process of the water body environment event in the determined area range, and helping emergency personnel to carry out environment emergency disposal and training;
and the water leakage prediction simulation submodule is used for predicting and simulating leakage when water leakage occurs at an external discharge port of an enterprise and a wharf area, and acquiring a possible influence range of the event and an environmental pollution degree in time.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
1. according to the risk assessment method for the water environment of the regional burst watershed, the region where the target storage place of the incremental hazardous chemical substance is located is taken as an assessment object, and the storage schemes such as the scheduling of the incremental hazardous chemical substance and the target storage place are scientifically determined to carry out systematic scientific assessment and auxiliary decision making, so that the defects of methods such as decision making mainly by means of expert experience in the traditional technology are overcome; and meanwhile, the expert is not required to continuously provide support for the understanding and the execution of the scheme.
2. The method evaluates the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of one area according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the area where the incremental hazardous chemical object storage place is located; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the mobile risk source of one area according to the ratio of the length of the area environmental risk road section to the total length of the area along the river road; finally, integrating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level, and dividing the regional comprehensive environment risk level; and further planning a transportation route according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, and finally determining an incremental hazardous chemical substance scheduling and storage scheme as an auxiliary decision basis for determining the incremental hazardous chemical substance storage scheme.
3. The risk assessment system for the water environment of the regional burst watershed comprises a basic information management module, an enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module, a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module, a regional comprehensive environment risk assessment module, an environment risk assessment module and an auxiliary decision module; evaluating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of a region according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the region through an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module; evaluating the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one area by a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module according to the ratio of the length of the regional environment risk road section to the total length of the regional river road; the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module integrates the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level, and carries out level division on the regional comprehensive environment risk; the method comprises the steps of completing calculation of a dangerous chemical storage place transportation risk index through an environmental risk assessment module, dividing an incremental dangerous chemical storage destination road transportation path into a plurality of environmental risk road sections by taking a water environment sensitive receptor as a node, and then carrying out environmental risk assessment and environmental risk grade division on the environmental risk road sections one by one; determining the level of environmental risk of the road section with the environmental risk according to the level of the road section combined with the environmental sensitive receptors. And the auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating the environmental event when the emergency environmental event managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module is subjected to emergency treatment. The system evaluates and determines the target storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances in advance, plans the transportation line for implementation and scheduling according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, and finally determines the storage scheme of the incremental hazardous chemical substances, so that the scheduling of the incremental hazardous chemical substances and the prediction and simulation of the emergency environmental events in the area where the target storage place is located can be realized, the environment emergency disposal level can be improved, and the harm degree and treatment cost of the environmental events can be reduced.
To more clearly illustrate the structural features and effects of the present invention, the following detailed description is given with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of a total risk assessment flow of a water environment in a regional sudden watershed according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of the risk assessment program of the hazardous chemical storage destination road transportation environment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1: referring to fig. 1-2, the method for assessing risk of water environment in a regional sudden drainage basin according to the present embodiment includes the following steps:
(1) regional enterprise hazardous chemical information acquisition
Determining the range of a geographical region (or an administrative administration region and an environmental protection responsibility scribing management region) where an incremental hazardous chemical object storage place which needs to be evaluated is located, setting a risk evaluation system based on a network, and setting a basic information management module in the system for collecting, managing and evaluating the number of hazardous chemical production enterprises, storage types of the hazardous chemical production enterprises, levels, storage quantities or production quantities of the hazardous chemical objects and water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprises are located in the determined region;
(2) intra-regional enterprise comprehensive risk level determination
Setting an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and evaluating the regional enterprise comprehensive environment risk level according to model operation value and situation setting for the number of the regional unit area environment risk enterprises; the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to the large environmental risk enterprises of 100, the large environmental risk enterprises of 20 and the general environmental risk enterprises of 1, and a formula S of the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment modulegd＝100Sgd1+20Sgd2+1Sgd3To obtain SgdCalculating the score according to the model of (S)gdEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SgdNot less than 40, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5<Sgd<40, the environmental risk rating is a greater environmental risk; sgdLess than or equal to 5, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk. R for enterprise integrated environment risk levelgdAnd (4) showing. The following table is the regional enterprise comprehensive environment risk rating:
(3) determination of integrated risk level for storage destination road traffic within assessment area
Setting a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and determining a mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of an area according to the percentage value of the length of an area environment risk road section in the total length of the area along a river road; evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination according to the model operation value and the situation setting; the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to the heavy environmental risk road section as 1, the heavy environmental risk road section as 0.2 and the general environmental risk road section as 0.01, and a formula S of the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment moduleyd＝Syd1+0.2Syd2+0.01Syd3To obtain SydCalculating the score according to the model of (S)ydEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SydNot less than 40%, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5 percent of<Syd<40%, the environmental risk level is a greater environmental risk; sydLess than or equal to 5 percent, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk. R for storing destination road transportation comprehensive environment risk levelydAnd (4) showing. The integrated environmental risk classification for regional storage destination road transport is as follows:
(4) assessing regional integrated environmental risk levels
Setting a regional comprehensive environment risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, combining the comprehensive risk level of the enterprise in the evaluation region with the comprehensive risk level of the road transportation of the destination stored in the evaluation determination region, and determining the regional comprehensive environment risk level; and comprehensively judging and determining a target storage destination of the hazardous chemical, planning a transportation route according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical, and finally determining an incremental hazardous chemical storage scheme to avoid storing in an area with great or larger environmental risk.
The network-based risk assessment system is provided with an environmental risk assessment module where a hazardous chemical object storage place is located, and an environmental risk identification sub-module is arranged in the environmental risk assessment module and is used for identifying a water environment risk receptor, a water environment risk source and water environment risk substance information around a road transportation leakage path of a hazardous chemical storage destination;
setting an environment risk evaluation submodule, analyzing and processing the identified risk source by the environment risk evaluation submodule, and evaluating the risk source environment risk road section and division according to the evaluation model; taking an environment sensitive receptor as a datum point, and taking a standard limit value of a characterization index of a hazardous chemical substance in water as a basis, (determining the characterization index of the hazardous chemical substance after the hazardous chemical substance leaks into a water body, namely a corresponding index in the quality standard of surface water environment (GB 3838-2002). if the corresponding monitoring index of the gasoline and diesel oil leakage is petroleum, the corresponding monitoring index of the methanol leakage is COD, 1g of methanol is corresponding to 1.5g of COD), carrying out reverse pushing upstream to obtain a critical point, and if the pollutant leaks at the critical point, the pollutant at the downstream environment sensitive receptor reaches the standard and is just set as a Z point; the point Z is a risk-free road section, namely if a dangerous chemical substance leaks from the road section, the water body related pollutants at a downstream environment sensitive receptor cannot exceed the standard; the section below the Z point is a risky section, namely if a hazardous chemical substance leaks from the section, the water body related pollutants at the downstream environment sensitive receptor exceed the standard, namely the environment sensitive receptor and a hazardous chemical substance transportation route in the Z point are risky sections, the hazardous chemical substance leaks above the Z point, the risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor is avoided, the risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor exists when the hazardous chemical substance leaks below the Z point, and the distance between the environment sensitive receptor and the Z point at the critical point is the length of the section with the environmental risk.
Setting an environmental risk grade evaluation module in the risk evaluation system based on the network, wherein the environmental risk grade evaluation module is used for determining the environmental risk grade of a road section with environmental risk by combining the grade of an environmental sensitive receptor; when the influence of the primary sensitive receptor is greater than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a major environmental risk road section by an evaluation system; when the influence of the secondary sensitive receptors is larger than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a section with higher environmental risk by an evaluation system; when the influence of the three-level sensitive receptors is larger than the set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a general environmental risk road section by the evaluation system.
The sensitivity of the environmentally sensitive receptors is classified into the following three classes:
a first-level sensitive receptor, namely a centralized drinking water source area of cities above the level of the city across national borders and established districts;
secondary sensitive receptor-centralized drinking water source place across provincial and county level cities; the natural ecological environment comprises a national level natural protection area, a national level scenic spot, a national level world culture and natural heritage area, a national level forest park, a national level geological park, a national level wetland, a natural concentrated distribution area of rare or endangered wild animals and plants, a natural spawning site and a bait site of important aquatic organisms, an overwintering site and a migration channel, a natural fishing ground and a national level cultural relic protection unit.
Three-level sensitive receptor-county (city) boundary crossing, village and town centralized drinking water source; other ecotype sensitive receptors.
The environmental risk assessment submodule has a calculation formula based on the standard limit value of the environmental risk road section length model in the zero-dimensional model as follows:
Si＝qi/Qwater j(1)
Si-standard limit value of representation index of i-th dangerous chemical in water environment, mg/L
qi-single leakage amount of i-th dangerous chemical single vehicle, g
QWater j-the amount of water between the point of leakage of the hazardous chemical to the jth water environment sensitive receptor, m3
QWater j＝Qj×t(2)
QjRiver flow m from hazardous chemical leakage point to environmentally sensitive receptor3/s
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
QWater j-the amount of water between the point of leakage of the hazardous chemical to the jth water environment sensitive receptor, m3
t＝Lj/uj(3)
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
Lj-distance m between dangerous chemical leakage point and jth water environment sensitive receptor
uj-river flow rate m/s between hazardous chemical leakage point and environmentally sensitive receptor
Combining the above formulas (1), (2) and (3), the dangerous chemical storage destination road transportation environment risk distance L between the ith dangerous chemical corresponding to the jth water environment sensitive receptorijThe estimation formula is as follows:
Lij＝qi×uj/(Qj×Si)(4)
for certain dangerous chemicals, different environment sensitive receptors can calculate corresponding environment risk road sections;
for a one-dimensional steady-state water quality model and a one-dimensional dynamic mixed model which ignore dispersion, the length of an environmental risk road section can be further calculated;
determining the leakage time of the hazardous chemical substances, wherein when the hazardous chemical substance leakage event occurs, the leakage time influences the initial concentration of the hazardous chemical substances entering the river, the leakage rate of the liquid of the hazardous chemical substances is calculated by using a Bernoulli equation, and then the leakage time is obtained according to the ratio of the transportation volume of the hazardous chemical substances to the leakage rate;
rate of hazardous chemical leakage
In the formula:
QL-the leakage rate of hazardous chemicals, kg/s;
Cd-the leakage coefficient of hazardous chemicals, which is usually 0.6-0.64;
a-area of cleavage, m2；
P is the pressure of the medium in the container, Pa;
P0-ambient pressure, Pa;
g-gravitational acceleration;
h-height of liquid level above the breach, m;
rho-density of dangerous chemical, kg/m3；
Determining the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river, wherein the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is determined according to the distance between the top of an offshore dike, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is calculated by the percentage of the maximum amount of dangerous chemicals transported by a single vehicle, the distance between the top of the offshore dike is divided into 200 meters, 100 meters, 50 meters, 10 meters and 0 meter, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is 10%, 25%, 65%, 90% and 100%, and the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river can be ignored when the distance between the top of the offshore dike is more than 200 meters.
A risk assessment system for regional burst watershed water environment comprises the following modules which are connected and operated based on a network:
the basic information management module is used for acquiring and managing the number of dangerous chemical production enterprises in the evaluation area, storage types, levels, storage quantities or production quantities of the dangerous chemical production enterprises and water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprises are located;
the enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module is used for determining the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level in one region according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the region; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module is used for determining the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one region according to the percentage value of the length of the regional environment risk road section in the total length of the region along the river road; evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
the regional comprehensive environment risk assessment module is used for combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the assessment and determination region with the destination road transportation comprehensive risk level stored in the assessment region to determine a regional comprehensive environment risk level;
the system firstly evaluates and determines the target storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, plans a transportation line according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, and finally determines an incremental hazardous chemical substance storage scheme.
The risk assessment system further comprises:
the environment risk evaluation module is used for completing calculation of the transportation risk index of the incremental hazardous chemical storage place and carrying out environment risk evaluation and environment risk division;
the environmental risk assessment module includes:
the environment risk identification submodule is used for identifying water environment risk receptors, water environment risk sources and water environment risk substance information of hazardous chemicals around the leakage path of the enterprise park;
and the environment risk evaluation submodule is used for analyzing and processing the risk source identified by the environment risk identification submodule and establishing an evaluation model for evaluating the risk source environment risk road sections and division.
And the environmental risk grade evaluation module is used for determining the environmental risk grade of the road section for the road section with the environmental risk by combining the grade of the environmental sensitive receptors.
The auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating an environmental event when the emergency environmental event managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module is subjected to emergency treatment;
the aid decision module comprises:
the control visualization sub-module is used for visually displaying disposal processes under different risk source accident conditions based on the water body environment event emergency disposal process in the region range, and helping emergency personnel to carry out environment emergency disposal and training;
and the water leakage prediction simulation submodule is used for predicting and simulating leakage when water leakage occurs at an external discharge port of an enterprise and a wharf area, and acquiring a possible influence range of the event and an environmental pollution degree in time.
Example 2:
referring to the attached drawings 1-2, the same method and system as in example 1 are adopted to evaluate the risk of water environments in district a county and in sudden drainage basin, which are required by transportation and storage of incremental hazardous chemical substances. The embodiment of the invention divides a drainage basin into a plurality of evaluation areas by administrative areas (county and city areas) based on the principle of home management.
The method comprises the following specific steps:
the river basin is divided into the following 4 evaluation areas: evaluation region 1, evaluation region 2, evaluation region 3, and evaluation region 4.
1. Fixed source integrated risk rating determination in an assessment area
1.1 determination of evaluation method
And evaluating the fixed source comprehensive environment risk level of one region according to the number of the region unit area environment risk enterprises. The major environmental risk enterprises are assigned a weight of 100, the major environmental risk enterprises are assigned a weight of 20, and the general environmental risk enterprises are assigned a weight of 1, and then a score of Sgd is obtained by a formula Sgd of 100Sgd1+20Sgd2+1Sgd 3. And finally, evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the regional fixed source according to the Sgd score and the scene setting.
Setting three situations according to the Sgd score, namely Sgd is more than or equal to 40, and the environmental risk level is a major environmental risk; 5< Sgd <40, environmental risk rating is greater environmental risk; sgd is less than or equal to 5, and the environmental risk level is the general environmental risk.
The fixed source synthetic environmental risk rating is represented by Rgd.
TABLE 1 regional fixed source synthetic environmental risk rating
1.2 evaluation of regional stationary Source case and regional area
The fixed source environment risk ranking process is illustrated by taking 3 enterprises in the assessment area as an example.
Collecting and managing the production and storage types of dangerous chemicals of an enterprise, the grades of the dangerous chemicals, the storage amount or the production amount of a single tank or a storage pool and the water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprise is located; obtain B enterprise storage area 2 270m3The crude benzene tank; obtain 1 100m of C enterprise storage area3The storage area of the D enterprise is 1 and 50m3The diesel oil of (1).
Acquiring hydrological data of a drainage basin where an enterprise is located:
identifying water environment risk receptors, water environment risk sources and water environment risk substance information of hazardous chemicals around the leakage path of the enterprise park;
the enterprise is located in a river basin A of a certain town street, and the flow rate of the worst month with 95% guarantee rate is about 150m 3/s.
II, hydraulic structures: the region has no reservoir, power station and other data.
And the functional area of the regional surface water environment is classified as the II-type standard of the quality standard of the surface water environment (GB 3838-2002).
Acquiring a watershed water environment risk source where an enterprise is located; the C enterprise is located at 260km downstream of the A basin and is a cross-national boundary section (a primary environment sensitive receptor). And the 800km downstream of the A drainage basin where the D enterprise is positioned is a cross-national boundary section (a primary environment sensitive receptor). And the place 200km downstream of the A drainage basin where the E enterprise is located is a trans-provincial boundary section (a secondary environment sensitive receptor).
Determination of evaluation parameters
Analyzing and processing the identified risk source, and evaluating the risk section and division of the risk source environment according to the evaluation model;
monitoring index corresponding to dangerous chemical leakage and standard limit value thereof
The characterization indexes of crude benzene, phenol, diesel oil and concentrated sulfuric acid in the water environment after leaking into the environment are benzene, petroleum and PH respectively, and the standard limit values in surface water refer to the surface water environment quality standard.
② maximum leakage quantity of hazardous chemical road transportation
And adopting the maximum leakage quantity of the dangerous chemicals of the enterprise as the minimum storage unit quantity of the dangerous chemicals. According to the obtained information of the previous data, the maximum leakage of the enterprise B is 540m3, the maximum leakage of the enterprise C is 100m3, and the maximum leakage of the enterprise D is 50m 3.
③ amount of dangerous chemicals leaked into river
The amount of dangerous chemicals leaked into the river is slightly different according to different enterprise conditions, the leakage amount is generally determined according to 5% -30%, and because each enterprise has an emergency pool, the amount of the dangerous chemicals possibly leaked out of factory boundaries of C, D, E enterprises is about 16m3, 30m3 and 9m 3. C. D, E the distances from the factory boundary to the river are respectively 200m, 100m and 50m, the river entering amount is respectively 10%, 25% and 65% of the factory boundary, and 2m3, 8m3 and 6m 3.
Leakage time of dangerous chemicals
Rate of hazardous chemical leakage
In the formula:
QL-leakage rate of dangerous chemicals, kg/s;
cd is the leakage coefficient of dangerous chemicals, and the value is usually 0.6-0.64;
a-area of cleavage, estimated at 0.01m 2.
P is the pressure of the medium in the container, Pa;
p0-ambient pressure, Pa;
g-gravitational acceleration;
h is the height of the liquid level above the crack, and the maximum height of the tank body of the tank truck is about 2 m;
ρ is density.
In the above formula, Cd takes the value of 0.6; the value of A is calculated according to 0.1m multiplied by 0.1m, namely 0.01m 2; the internal pressure and the external pressure are the same, namely P-P0; g takes 9.81m/s 2; h, taking 2 m; the density of benzene is 876kg/m3, the density of phenol is 1071kg/m3, and the density of phenol is 850kg/m 3.
According to the formula and the parameter values, the leakage speeds of C, D, E enterprise pollutants are respectively calculated to be 33kg/s, 40kg/s and 31kg/s, and the leakage time is respectively 7min, 13min and 4 min.
Diffusion model selection of pollutant in water
Considering that the flow state of a certain basin is a non-constant flow and gasoline is a non-persistent pollutant, a one-dimensional dynamic mixing mode is comprehensively considered according to actual conditions.
One-dimensional dynamic hybrid model:
A＝q/u
a-area of flow cross section, m2
u-section mean flow velocity, m/s
q-flow, m3/s
d-longitudinal diffusion coefficient, m2/s
c-concentration of a contaminant at time t of x section, mg/m3
s-algebraic sum of various sources and drains
In the above formula, u is 0.6m/s, q is 150m3/s, A is q/u is 250m2, s is 0, and d is 10000m 2/s. Assuming that the leakage amount is constant, the concentrations C0t from the initial time of the river channel at the incident point to the leakage termination time are all constant (0 represents the initial section distance, km and t represents time), the concentrations C0 8926 of the C, D, E enterprises C0t are 22500mg/m3, 67100mg/m3 and 138000mg/m3 respectively, Cxt of each enterprise can be calculated through a formula, the maximum concentrations of the enterprises C from the incident point to the downstream 350km sections exceed or equal to 10mg/m3, namely 0.01mg/L, and exceed the maximum concentrations are exceeded; the maximum concentration of the accident generated on the section after the section is more than 350km is less than 0.01mg/L and reaches the standard. D, when the enterprise reaches a 787km section from the incident point to the downstream, the maximum concentration generated by the accident exceeds or equals to 10mg/m3, namely 0.01mg/L, and exceeds the standard; the maximum concentration of the accident generated on the section after the section is more than 787km is less than 0.01mg/L and reaches the standard. From the incident point to the 229km section downstream of the enterprise E, the maximum concentration generated by the accident exceeds or equals to 50mg/m3, namely 0.05mg/L, and exceeds the standard; the maximum concentration of the accident generated on the section after the section is more than 229km is less than 0.05mg/L and reaches the standard.
Risk assessment of water environment of enterprise sudden watershed
Determining the level of the environmental risk of the road section with the environmental risk by combining the level of the environmental sensitive receptors; according to model calculation, the river leakage amount of C enterprises is 2m3 crude benzene, and when the concentration of the pollution groups is attenuated to 0.01mg/L, the influence distance of the pollutants is 350km downstream of the leakage point. Meanwhile, by measuring and calculating the distance between the downstream environment sensitive receptor of a certain enterprise and a leakage point, the environment sensitive receptor which is farthest downstream of the enterprise C and has the highest sensitivity level is a cross-national boundary section (a primary environment sensitive receptor) and is about 260 km. Therefore, it can be shown that the water environment risk levels of the C enterprise are significant environment risk road sections respectively. D, when the river leakage amount of the enterprise D is 2m3 phenol and the concentration of the pollution groups is attenuated to 0.01mg/L, the influence distance of the pollutants is 787km downstream of the leakage point. Meanwhile, through measuring and calculating the distance between the downstream environment sensitive receptor of a certain enterprise and a leakage point, the environment sensitive receptor which is farthest downstream of the enterprise and has the highest sensitivity level is a cross-national boundary section (a primary environment sensitive receptor) and is about 800 km. Therefore, the water environment risk levels of enterprises D are risk-free road sections respectively. The river inflow of the diesel oil leaked from the F enterprise is 6m3, and when the concentration of the pollution groups is attenuated to 0.05mg/L, the influence distance of the pollutants is 229km downstream of the leakage point. Meanwhile, by measuring and calculating the distance between the downstream environment sensitive receptor of a certain enterprise and a leakage point, the environment sensitive receptor which is farthest downstream of the enterprise F and has the highest sensitivity level is a trans-provincial boundary section (secondary environment sensitive receptor) and is about 200 km. Therefore, the water environment risk levels of the F enterprises are respectively higher than the risk road sections.
According to the case introduction, the environmental risk level of the fixed source is obtained through the risk assessment of the river basin enterprise, and the environmental risk level is summarized in the following table in combination with the data research (assessment area).
Table 2 evaluation of regional fixed source risk and regional area table
1.3 evaluation area fixed source comprehensive risk level characterization
With reference to the foregoing 1.1 and 1.2, regional fixed source environmental risk ratings are evaluated as shown in the following table.
Table 3 evaluation region fixed source environment risk level result table
| Serial number | Evaluating area names | SgdValue of | Assessing regional fixed source environmental risk levels |
| 1 | Evaluation area 1 | 5.54 | Greater environmental risk |
| 2 | Evaluation area 2 | 2.39 | General environmental risks |
| 3 | Evaluation area 3 | 5.54 | Greater environmental risk |
| 4 | Evaluation area 4 | 23.23 | Greater environmental risk |
2. Determination of comprehensive risk level of road transport in assessment area
2.1 determination of evaluation method
And evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the road transportation risk source of one area according to the ratio (%) of the length of the regional environmental risk road section to the total length of the regional highway along the river. The heavy environmental risk road segment is weighted 1, the large environmental risk road segment is weighted 0.2, the general environmental risk road segment is weighted 0.01, and then the score of Syd is obtained by the formula Syd1+0.2Syd2+0.01Syd 3. And finally, evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of regional road transportation according to the Syd score and the scene setting.
Setting three situations according to the Sgd score, namely Syd is more than or equal to 40%, and the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5% < Syd < 40%, environmental risk rating is greater environmental risk; syd is less than or equal to 5 percent, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk.
The road transport integrated environmental risk rating is represented by Ryd.
TABLE 4 regional road transport comprehensive environmental risk grading
2.2 assessment of regional road traffic
The fixed source environment risk ranking process is illustrated by taking 3 enterprises in the assessment area as an example.
(1) Acquiring transportation information of hazardous chemicals;
selecting a dangerous chemical transport route in a certain subregion of a basin A, (1) the transported dangerous chemical is gasoline, the single-time dangerous chemical transport volume is 30m3, the transport route is provincial road, and the serial number is S228; (2) the transported hazardous chemical is cyanide, the transport volume of the single hazardous chemical is 5m3, the transport route is provincial, and the serial number is S230; (3) the transported hazardous chemical substance is phenol, the transportation volume of the single hazardous chemical substance is 20m3, the transportation route is provincial, and the serial number is S320. (4) The transported hazardous chemical substance is diesel oil, the transportation volume of the single hazardous chemical substance is 30m3, the transportation route is provincial, and the serial number is S380
(2) Acquiring hydrological data of a watershed;
firstly, evaluating that the 95% guarantee rate of a first-level branch of a river B in a certain basin in the area A is about 100m3/s in the worst month flow.
II, hydraulic structures: the region has no reservoir, power station and other data.
And the regional surface water environment function is classified into the surface water environment quality standard (GB3838-2002) class III standard.
(3) Acquiring a water environment risk source of a hazardous chemical substance road transportation basin;
the water environment sensitive receptors included downstream of the river (river B) associated with the transportation route S228 are: 1 centralized drinking water source area (secondary environment sensitive receptor) in a certain village and town does not contain the primary environment sensitive receptor.
(4) Evaluating road section
And identifying river-following highways, river-crossing bridges and the like of the river B in the river basin in the area A, and taking roads, river-crossing bridges and the like within 200m of the top of the offshore dike in the river basin as environmental risk assessment road sections. According to the identification principle of the potential environment risk road section, 35 sections of the potential water environment risk road section are identified in a certain subregion of the A basin. The embodiment selects the section S228(02) from the identification results of the sections with potential environmental risks for analysis.
(5) Determination of evaluation parameters
Monitoring index corresponding to dangerous chemical leakage and standard limit value thereof
The characterization index of the gasoline leaked into the environment in the water environment is petroleum, and the standard limit of the petroleum in the surface water is referred to the surface water environment quality standard (GB3838-2002) as shown below.
| Class I water body | Class II water body | Class III water body | Class IV water body | Class V water body |
| 0.05mg/L | 0.05mg/L | 0.05mg/L | 0.5mg/L | 1.0mg/L |
And executing a class III standard according to the water environment quality in a river domain of a surface water functional zone B, wherein the limit value of the petroleum standard is 0.05 mg/L.
② maximum leakage quantity of hazardous chemical road transportation
The method adopts the mode that the maximum leakage amount of the road transportation of the hazardous chemicals is the transportation amount of the minimum transportation unit of the hazardous chemicals. Based on the information obtained from the above data, the maximum leakage amount of this embodiment is 30m 3.
③ amount of dangerous chemicals leaked into river
The distance S228(02) from the river was measured to be about 28m, in the interval 10-50 m. If dangerous chemical leakage occurs, the leakage amount into the river is 65% of the total transportation amount and is about 14.24 tons (the transportation volume is 30m3, the gasoline density is 730kg/m3, and the total amount is about 21.9 tons) according to the selection of the related parameters.
Leakage time of dangerous chemicals
Rate of hazardous chemical leakage
In the formula:
QL-leakage rate of dangerous chemicals, kg/s;
cd is the leakage coefficient of dangerous chemicals, and the value is usually 0.6-0.64;
a-area of cleavage, estimated at 0.01m 2.
P is the pressure of the medium in the container, Pa;
p0-ambient pressure, Pa;
g-gravitational acceleration;
h is the height of the liquid level above the crack, and the maximum height of the tank body of the tank truck is about 2 m;
rho-density, gasoline density about 730kg/m 3.
In the above formula, Cd takes the value of 0.64; the value of A is calculated according to 0.1m multiplied by 0.1m, namely 0.01m 2; the internal pressure and the external pressure are the same, namely P-P0; g takes 9.81m/s 2; h, taking the maximum height of the tank car, which is about 2 m.
According to the formula and the parameter value, the gasoline leakage speed QL can be calculated to be 29.3kg/S, and accordingly, the leakage time section S228(02) is estimated to be about 8.1 min.
Diffusion model selection of pollutant in water
Considering that the flow state of a certain basin is a non-constant flow and gasoline is a non-persistent pollutant, a one-dimensional dynamic mixing mode is comprehensively considered according to actual conditions.
One-dimensional dynamic hybrid model:
A＝q/u
a-area of flow cross section, m2
u-section mean flow velocity, m/s
q-flow, m3/s
d-longitudinal diffusion coefficient, m2/s
c-concentration of a contaminant at time t from the X km section at the point of origin, mg/m3
s-algebraic sum of various sources and drains
In the above formula, u is 0.6m/s, q is 100m3/s, A is q/u is 166.6m2, s is 0, and d is 10000m 2/s. Assuming that the leakage amount is constant, the concentration C0t from the initial time of the river channel at the incident point to the leakage termination time is constant (0 represents the initial section distance, km, and t represents time), C0t is 14.24t 109/8.1 60min/100m3/s is 293000mg/m3, Cxt can be calculated through a formula, and the maximum concentration generated by the accident exceeds or equals to 50mg/m3, namely 0.05mg/L from the incident point to the downstream 833km section and exceeds the standard; the maximum concentration of the accident generated on the section after the section is more than 833km is less than 0.05mg/L and reaches the standard.
(6) Risk assessment method and grade division for road transportation environment of water environment sensitive receptor hazardous chemical
And taking the point of the road section closest to the downstream environment sensitive receptor as a simulated dangerous chemical leakage point. According to model calculation, when 14.24 tons of gasoline are leaked from the road section S228(02) and the concentration of the pollution mass is attenuated to 0.05mg/L, the influence distance of the pollutants is 833km at the downstream of the leakage point. Meanwhile, by measuring and calculating the distance between the environment sensitive receptor at the downstream of the leakage point and the leakage point, the environment sensitive receptor at the farthest downstream of the leakage point and the highest sensitive level in the road section S228(02) is a centralized domestic drinking water source area of a certain village and town, and is about 400 km. The length of the section S228(02) is 3000 m.
Link S228 (02): based on the highest level of environmentally sensitive receptors, i.e., a centralized domestic drinking water source in a certain town and country, 833km (the distance of impact of the pollutant diffusion from the leakage point to reach the standard) is deduced backwards, which covers the whole of the section S228(02), and thus, the section is an environmentally-risky section. And determining the environmental risk grade of the road section according to the grade of the highest influenced environmental sensitive receptor (secondary environmental sensitive receptor in a centralized domestic drinking water source area of a certain village and a town), namely the road section is a large environmental risk road section. By this, it can be concluded that the water environment risk levels of the section S228(02) are respectively greater environment risk sections.
And (4) obtaining the environmental risk grade of road transportation through the risk assessment of road transportation in the basin A, and summarizing the environmental risk grade as shown in the following table by combining the data investigation condition.
TABLE 5 regional road transportation risk assessment and regional river-following highway total length table
2.3 assessment area road transport comprehensive risk level characterization
With reference to the foregoing 2.1 and 2.2, regional road transport environmental risk ratings are evaluated as shown in the following table.
TABLE 6 evaluation region road transportation environment risk level result table
2.4 assessment regional synthetic environmental Risk level characterization
Combining the content 1 and the content 2, the regional comprehensive environmental risk level is divided according to the following table.
TABLE 7 regional environmental Risk level characterization
| Rgd1 | Rgd2 | Rgd3 | |
| Ryd1 | Area: major environmental risk | Area: major environmental risk | Region(s): major environmental risk |
| Ryd2 | Area: major environmental risk | Area: greater environmental risk | Area: greater environmental risk |
| Ryd3 | Area: major environmental risk | Area: greater environmental risk | Area: general environmental risks |
The comprehensive environmental risk level of each assessment area of the watershed can be seen according to the table. The summary is shown in the following table.
TABLE 8 evaluation region comprehensive environment Risk level Table
| Serial number | Evaluating area names | Assessing regional integrated environmental risk levels |
| 1 | Evaluation area 1 | Greater environmental risk |
| 2 | Evaluation area 2 | General environmental risks |
| 3 | Evaluation area 3 | Major environmental risk |
| 4 | Evaluation area 4 | Greater environmental risk |
The invention is characterized in that:
1. according to the risk assessment method for the water environment of the regional burst watershed, the region where the incremental dangerous chemical object storage place is located is taken as an object, and the storage and scheduling schemes such as the storage place of the dangerous chemical object storage place are scientifically determined to carry out systematic scientific assessment and auxiliary decision making, so that the defects of methods such as decision making mainly by means of expert experience in the traditional technology are overcome; and meanwhile, the expert is not required to continuously provide support for the understanding and the execution of the scheme.
2. The method evaluates the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of one area according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the area where the incremental hazardous chemical object storage place is located; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the mobile risk source of one area according to the ratio of the length of the area environmental risk road section to the total length of the area along the river road; finally, integrating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level, and dividing the regional comprehensive environment risk level; and further planning a transportation route according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical substances, wherein the transportation route is used as an auxiliary decision basis for finally determining the storage scheme of the incremental hazardous chemical substances and is generally prevented from being stored in an area with great and large environmental risks.
3. According to the risk assessment method for the water environment of the regional sudden drainage basin, an environment sensitive receptor influence derivation method is adopted for risk assessment, an environment sensitive receptor is used as an assessment basis, and an environment risk road section is screened and graded according to the influence degree of hazardous chemical leakage on the environment sensitive receptor. And carrying out environmental risk assessment and environmental risk grade division according to the influence degree of the leakage amount of the materials stored or produced in the factory area of the enterprise on the environment sensitive receptor. And further taking the planned route for storing the dangerous chemicals as an auxiliary decision basis for finally determining the storage scheme of the incremental dangerous chemicals.
4. The risk assessment system for determining the water environment of the sudden drainage basin in the area comprises a basic information management module, an enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module, a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module, an area comprehensive environment risk assessment module, an environment risk assessment module and an auxiliary decision module; evaluating the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level of a region according to the number of the environment risk enterprises in the unit area of the region through an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module; evaluating the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one area by a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module according to the ratio of the length of the regional environment risk road section to the total length of the regional river road; and the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module synthesizes the enterprise comprehensive environment risk level and the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level and divides the regional comprehensive environment risk level. The method comprises the steps of completing calculation of a dangerous chemical storage place transportation risk index through an environmental risk assessment module, dividing a road transportation path of a dangerous chemical storage destination into a plurality of environmental risk road sections by taking a water environment sensitive receptor as a node, and then carrying out environmental risk assessment and environmental risk grade division on the environmental risk road sections one by one; determining the level of environmental risk of the road section with the environmental risk according to the level of the road section combined with the environmental sensitive receptors. And the auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating the environmental event when the emergency environmental event managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module is subjected to emergency treatment. The method realizes the prediction and simulation of the emergency environment event and is beneficial to improving the environment emergency disposal level.
While the present invention has been described in detail and with reference to the embodiments thereof as illustrated in the accompanying drawings, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that various changes and modifications can be made therein. Therefore, certain details of the embodiments should not be construed as limitations of the present invention, which should be interpreted as having a scope defined by the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. A risk assessment method for water environment in regional sudden watershed is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) information acquisition of enterprise hazardous chemicals in area
Determining the geographical area range where the incremental hazardous chemical substance target storage place is to be evaluated, and setting a risk evaluation system based on a network, and setting a basic information management module in the system for acquiring, managing and evaluating the number of hazardous chemical substance production enterprises, storage types of the hazardous chemical substance production enterprises, the level of the hazardous chemical substance, storage quantity or production quantity in the area, and the water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprises are located;
(2) determining enterprise integrated environment risk level in a region
Setting an enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and evaluating the regional enterprise comprehensive environment risk level according to model operation value and situation setting for the number of the regional unit area environment risk enterprises;
the method specifically comprises the following steps: the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to a heavy environmental risk enterprise of 100, a weight to a large environmental risk enterprise of 20, and a weight to a general environmental risk enterprise of 1; then the formula S of the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module is passedgd＝100Sgd1+20Sgd2+1Sgd3After the operation, S can be obtainedgdCalculating the score according to the model of (S)gdEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SgdNot less than 40, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5<Sgd<40, the environmental risk rating is a greater environmental risk; sgdLess than or equal to 5, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk;
(3) in-area storage destination road transport integrated environmental risk level determination
Setting a storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, and determining a mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of an area according to the percentage value of the length of an area environment risk road section in the total length of the area along a river road; evaluating the comprehensive environment risk level of the regional storage destination road transportation according to the model operation value and the situation setting, and specifically comprising the following steps of:
the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to the heavy environmental risk road section as 1, the heavy environmental risk road section as 0.2 and the general environmental risk road section as 0.01; then the formula S of the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module is usedyd＝Syd1+0.2Syd2+0.01Syd3After the operation, S can be obtainedydCalculating the score of the model; finally according to SydEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SydNot less than 40%, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5 percent of<Syd<40%, the environmental risk level is a greater environmental risk; sydLess than or equal to 5 percent, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk;
(4) assessing regional integrated environmental risk levels
And arranging a regional comprehensive environment risk evaluation module in the risk evaluation system, combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the evaluation region with the road transportation comprehensive risk level of the storage destination in the evaluation region, outputting the comprehensive environment risk level of the determined region after calculation, comprehensively judging and determining the target storage destination of the hazardous chemical, planning a transportation line according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical, and finally determining an incremental hazardous chemical scheduling and storage scheme.
2. The method for risk assessment of water environment in regional sudden drainage basins according to claim 1, wherein an environmental risk assessment module is provided in the network-based risk assessment system, and an environmental risk identification sub-module is provided in the environmental risk assessment module, and is used for identifying a water environment risk receptor, a water environment risk source and water environment risk substance information around the road transportation leakage path of the storage destination of the hazardous chemical;
setting an environment risk evaluation submodule, analyzing and processing the identified risk source by the environment risk evaluation submodule, and evaluating the risk source environment risk road section and division according to the evaluation model; taking an environment sensitive receptor as a datum point, taking a standard limit value of a representation index of a hazardous chemical substance in water as a basis, and performing backward extrapolation on the upstream to obtain a critical point, wherein the critical point is a Z point when the pollutant is leaked at the position, and the pollutant at the position of a downstream environment sensitive receptor reaches the standard; the point Z is a risk-free road section, namely if a dangerous chemical substance leaks from the road section, the water body related pollutants at a downstream environment sensitive receptor cannot exceed the standard; the section below the Z point is a risky section, namely if a hazardous chemical substance leaks from the section, the water body related pollutants at the downstream environment sensitive receptor exceed the standard, namely the environment sensitive receptor and a hazardous chemical substance transportation route in the Z point are risky sections, the hazardous chemical substance leaks above the Z point, the risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor is avoided, the risk to the downstream environment sensitive receptor exists when the hazardous chemical substance leaks below the Z point, and the distance between the environment sensitive receptor and the Z point at the critical point is the length of the section with the environmental risk.
3. The risk assessment method for the water environment in the regional sudden drainage basin according to claim 2, wherein the environmental risk assessment submodule calculates the formula based on the standard limit value of the environmental risk road section length model in the zero-dimensional model as follows:
Si＝qi/Qwater j(1)
Si-standard limit value of representation index of i-th dangerous chemical in water environment, mg/L
qi-single leakage amount of i-th dangerous chemical single vehicle, g
QWater j-the amount of water between the point of leakage of the hazardous chemical to the jth water environment sensitive receptor, m3
QWater j＝Qj×t (2)
QjRiver flow m from hazardous chemical leakage point to environmentally sensitive receptor3/s
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
QWater j-the amount of water between the point of leakage of the hazardous chemical to the jth water environment sensitive receptor, m3
t＝Lj/uj(3)
t-time taken for the migration of hazardous chemical leakage point contaminant to environmentally sensitive receptor, s
Lj-distance m between dangerous chemical leakage point and jth water environment sensitive receptor
uj-river flow rate m/s between hazardous chemical leakage point and environmentally sensitive receptor
Combining the above formulas (1), (2) and (3), the dangerous chemical storage destination road transportation environment risk distance L between the ith dangerous chemical corresponding to the jth water environment sensitive receptorijThe estimation formula is as follows:
Lij＝qi×uj/(Qj×Si) (4)
for certain dangerous chemicals, different environment sensitive receptors can calculate corresponding environment risk road sections;
for a one-dimensional steady-state water quality model and a one-dimensional dynamic mixed model which ignore dispersion, the length of an environmental risk road section can be further calculated;
determining the leakage time of the hazardous chemical substances, wherein when the hazardous chemical substance leakage event occurs, the leakage time influences the initial concentration of the hazardous chemical substances entering the river, the leakage rate of the liquid of the hazardous chemical substances is calculated by using a Bernoulli equation, and then the leakage time is obtained according to the ratio of the transportation volume of the hazardous chemical substances to the leakage rate;
rate of hazardous chemical leakage
In the formula:
QL-the leakage rate of hazardous chemicals, kg/s;
Cd-the leakage coefficient of hazardous chemicals, which is usually 0.6-0.64;
a-area of cleavage, m2；
P is the pressure of the medium in the container, Pa;
P0-ambient pressure, Pa;
g-gravitational acceleration;
h-height of liquid level above the breach, m;
rho-density of dangerous chemical, kg/m3；
Determining the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river, wherein the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is determined according to the distance between the top of an offshore dike, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is calculated by the percentage of the maximum amount of dangerous chemicals transported by a single vehicle, the distance between the top of the offshore dike is divided into 200 meters, 100 meters, 50 meters, 10 meters and 0 meter, the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is 10%, 25%, 65%, 90% and 100%, and the amount of dangerous chemicals leaking into the river is ignored when the distance between the top of the offshore dike is more than 200 meters.
4. The method for assessing the risk of the aquatic environment in the regional sudden watershed according to claim 1, wherein an environmental risk level assessment module is arranged in the network-based risk assessment system and used for determining the environmental risk level of a road section with an environmental risk by combining the level of an environmental sensitive receptor with the level of the road section; when the influence of the primary sensitive receptor is greater than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a major environmental risk road section by an evaluation system; when the influence of the secondary sensitive receptors is larger than a set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a section with higher environmental risk by an evaluation system; when the influence of the three-level sensitive receptors is larger than the set standard limit value, the area is automatically judged as a general environmental risk road section by the evaluation system.
5. A risk assessment system for regional burst basin water environment according to the method of any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that it comprises the following modules interconnected and operated based on network:
the basic information management module is used for acquiring, managing, evaluating and determining the quantity of dangerous chemical production enterprises, storage types of the dangerous chemical production enterprises, the grades, the storage amount or the production amount of the dangerous chemical and the water environment information of a drainage basin where the enterprises are located in an area, namely a geographical area where the incremental dangerous chemical target storage place is located;
the enterprise comprehensive risk evaluation module is used for evaluating the regional enterprise comprehensive environment risk level according to the model operation value and the situation setting for the number of regional unit area environment risk enterprises;
the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to a heavy environmental risk enterprise of 100, a weight to a large environmental risk enterprise of 20, and a weight to a general environmental risk enterprise of 1; then the formula S of the enterprise comprehensive risk assessment module is passedgd＝100Sgd1+20Sgd2+1Sgd3After the operation, S can be obtainedgdCalculating the score according to the model of (S)gdEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the regional enterprise by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SgdNot less than 40, the environmental risk grade is a major environmental risk; 5<Sgd<40, the environmental risk rating is a greater environmental risk; sgdLess than or equal to 5, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk;
the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module is used for determining the mobile risk source comprehensive environment risk level of one region according to the percentage value of the length of the regional environment risk road section in the total length of the region along the river road; evaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of road transportation at the storage destination of the hazardous chemical substance area according to the model operation value and the situation setting;
the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module assigns a weight to a heavy environmental risk road section as 1, a heavy environmental risk road section as 0.2 and a general environmental risk road section as 0.01; then the formula S of the storage destination road transportation comprehensive risk assessment module is usedyd＝Syd1+0.2Syd2+0.01Syd3After the operation, S can be obtainedydCalculating the score of the model; finally according to SydEvaluating the comprehensive environmental risk level of the road transportation at the regional storage destination by the model operation value and the situation setting; according to SgdModel operation score setting three scenarios, namely SydNot less than 40 percent, and the environmental risk grade is a great environmentRisk; 5 percent of<Syd<40%, the environmental risk level is a greater environmental risk; sydLess than or equal to 5 percent, and the environmental risk grade is the general environmental risk;
the regional comprehensive environment risk assessment module is used for combining the enterprise comprehensive risk level in the assessment and determination region with the destination road transportation comprehensive risk level in the assessment and determination region, and outputting the comprehensive environment risk level of the determination region after calculation;
the system firstly evaluates and determines the target storage destination of the incremental hazardous chemical, plans a transportation line according to the provided storage destination of the hazardous chemical and finally determines the scheduling and storage scheme of the incremental hazardous chemical.
6. The system for risk assessment of aquatic environment in regional sudden watershed according to claim 5, further comprising:
the environment risk evaluation module is used for completing calculation of the transportation risk index of the incremental dangerous chemical target storage place and carrying out environment risk evaluation and environment risk division;
the environmental risk assessment module includes:
the environment risk identification submodule is used for identifying water environment risk receptors, water environment risk sources and water environment risk substance information of hazardous chemicals around the leakage path of the enterprise park;
and the environment risk evaluation submodule is used for analyzing and processing the risk source identified by the environment risk identification submodule and establishing an evaluation model for evaluating the risk source environment risk road sections and division.
7. The system for risk assessment of aquatic environment in regional sudden watershed according to claim 5, further comprising:
and the environmental risk grade evaluation module is used for determining the environmental risk grade of the road section for the road section with the environmental risk by combining the grade of the environmental sensitive receptors.
8. The system for risk assessment of aquatic environment in regional sudden watershed according to claim 5, further comprising:
the auxiliary decision-making module is used for predicting and simulating an environmental event when emergency treatment is carried out on the emergency environmental event of the target storage place managed by the environmental safety hidden danger module;
the aid decision module comprises:
the control visualization sub-module is used for visually displaying disposal processes under different risk source accident conditions based on the emergency disposal process of the water body environmental events in the area range of the hazardous chemical target storage place, and helping emergency personnel to carry out environmental emergency disposal and training;
and the water leakage prediction simulation submodule is used for predicting and simulating leakage when water leakage occurs at an external discharge port of an enterprise and a wharf area, and acquiring a possible influence range of the event and an environmental pollution degree in time.
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