CN111882244A - Construction method of multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on hierarchical framework - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework, which comprises the following steps: determining a homeland development risk source; based on various homeland development risk sources, constructing a multi-risk-source index system by taking an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework, scoring the relative importance among evaluation indexes of different homeland development risk sources by utilizing a '1-9' scaling method, and determining the weight of each evaluation index; and (3) carrying out quantity value division on each evaluation index according to expert experience and the specific condition of a research area, selecting a proper evaluation method according to the characteristics of each risk source, and measuring and calculating the risk degree of each risk source. The construction method of the multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on the hierarchical framework provided by the invention is characterized in that a multi-risk source index system is constructed based on the element data of land, grain, ecology, resources, disasters, social economy and the like and on the basis of a hierarchical analysis model framework, a proper evaluation method is selected according to the characteristics of various risk sources, and comprehensive evaluation research on homeland development risks is developed from multiple scales.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of homeland development risk assessment, in particular to a construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework.
Background
The homeland is a material foundation and a space carrier for normally developing all production and life, not only can provide necessary production space for the development of human socioeconomic development, but also can provide necessary living space for the living life of the human socioeconomic development, and also can provide corresponding ecological service space for the human socioeconomic development. Along with the rapid development of economy in China, the urbanization process is increasingly accelerated, the rigid requirements of land development are continuously increased due to the increase of the number of population and the expansion of the activity range of human beings, and the contradiction between land resource supply, ecological protection, resource utilization and human requirements is accompanied. How to coordinate the relationship between the urbanization development and the development of the territorial space to realize the sustainable development has become a hotspot of the current research. The evaluation of the risk of the homeland development is the work of quantitatively evaluating the influence and loss of resources and environment caused by the development and utilization of the homeland resources, and aims to reflect the overall level, the property, the grade, the potential hazard and the distinguishing different patterns of the homeland development risk in an evaluation area and provide guidance and scientific basis for the development of the homeland resources, the protection of the ecological environment, the social economic development and the implementation of the comprehensive homeland improvement project.
At present, the research of the homeland development risk has some problems: (1) at present, no complete research of a homeland development risk evaluation system exists in China, and related research fields mainly include: the method comprises the following steps of (1) environmental risk evaluation, ecological risk evaluation, disaster risk evaluation, city development risk evaluation and the like, wherein the emphasis points of the concepts are different during definition, and the evaluation objects of the single risk source evaluation are all emphasized, so that the national and local development risks cannot be comprehensively evaluated; (2) the comprehensive research on the national and local development risks is less, and in recent years, scholars at home and abroad carry out deep research on various risks, but the comprehensive analysis and research on the risks are less, and no unified knowledge is formed on the aspects of research ideas and methods; (3) the multi-scale homeland development risk assessment research is relatively deficient and is limited by a series of conditions such as methods, data and the like, domestic related researches mostly and independently take regions, counties, watersheds or smaller administrative units as research units, and meanwhile, the research developed on the multi-scale is relatively less; (4) the risk assessment methods are various, but the method is convenient to operate, the evaluation results of the method with few related indexes are often not reliable enough, some reliable models such as a system dynamics model need to establish a complex feedback relationship in the model construction process, and the results of the method also have certain uncertainty in regional research.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework, which is characterized in that a multi-risk source index system is constructed on the basis of element data such as land, grains, ecology, resources, disasters, social economy and the like and on the basis of a hierarchical analysis model framework, and a suitable evaluation method is selected according to various risk source characteristics to develop comprehensive evaluation research of homeland development risks from multiple scales.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework comprises the following steps:
s1, analyzing the land resource development data and determining the land development influence factors;
s2, determining a homeland development risk source based on the homeland development influence factors;
s3, constructing a multi-risk source index system by taking an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework based on various homeland development risk sources, and scoring the relative importance among the evaluation indexes of the different homeland development risk sources by using a '1-9' scale method to determine the weight of each evaluation index;
s4, performing magnitude division on each evaluation index according to expert experience and the specific situation of a research area, selecting a proper evaluation method according to the characteristics of each risk source, and measuring and calculating the risk degree of each risk source;
s5, integrating the risk degrees of the evaluation indexes of the soil development risk sources of all countries by taking county areas as evaluation units, calculating the risk values of the evaluation units by adopting a weighted average method, and dividing risk areas with different grades;
and S6, evaluating the risk level and analyzing the territory development risk source by adopting the method the same as the step S5 and taking the villages and the towns as evaluation units, thereby realizing the comprehensive evaluation of the territory development risk.
Optionally, in step S1, analyzing the homeland resource development data, and determining the influence factors of homeland development, specifically including:
based on a homeland resource development database, acquiring data of land, grain, ecology, resources, disasters, socioeconomic population factors;
based on the element data, a GIS space analysis function, an Excel, Matlab and Python calculation analysis function are utilized to analyze that farming conditions, grain supply conditions, groundwater conditions, water resource supply conditions, geological structure conditions, regional stability conditions, disaster development degree, ecological vulnerability degree, geothermal resource utilization degree, social and economic conditions and human activity intensity are national and local development influence factors.
Optionally, in step S2, determining a homeland development risk source based on the homeland development influencing factors, specifically including:
the homeland development risk source comprises grain safety risk, water resource risk, geological disaster risk, ecological risk and mineral resource risk.
Optionally, in step S3, based on multiple territorial development risk sources, a multiple risk source index system is constructed by using an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework, and the relative importance among the evaluation indexes of different territorial development risk sources is scored by using a "1-9" scaling method, so as to determine the weight of each evaluation index, which specifically includes:
the method comprises the steps of qualitatively identifying risk factors of grain safety aiming at grain safety risks, establishing a grain safety risk evaluation index system by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, wherein the grain safety risk evaluation index system takes the grain safety risk evaluation as a target layer, covers 3 primary evaluation indexes including farming conditions, grain supply and natural disasters and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes, scores the relative importance among different indexes by utilizing a 1-9 scaling method, and determines the weight of each index;
aiming at water resource risks, establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, covering 4 primary evaluation indexes of dangerousness, exposition, fragility and risk reduction capacity and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes, and determining the weight of each index;
aiming at the risk of the geological disaster, a hierarchical analysis method is adopted to divide the geological disaster risk evaluation model into three layers, wherein the first layer from top to bottom is a target layer, namely the risk of the geological disaster, the second layer is a criterion layer, namely the regional stability, the development degree of the geological disaster and the influence of human activities, and the third layer is used for detailing indexes of each criterion so as to establish a risk evaluation hierarchical model on the basis; according to a geological disaster risk evaluation hierarchical model, constructing a geological disaster risk evaluation index system based on three evaluation indexes of regional stability, geological disaster development degree and human activity influence, and calculating the weight of an evaluation factor according to an AHP method;
aiming at ecological risks, on the basis of the conventional ecological risk evaluation research, a disaster risk evaluation research method is referred, the risk of risk factors and the vulnerability of risk receptors are considered, indexes are selected according to the current situation of the ecological environment of a research area, a regional ecological risk evaluation index system is constructed by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and is used for representing the risk of the regional ecological risks, and the weights of evaluation factors are evaluated by adopting an expert scoring method on the basis of fully considering the current situation of the ecological environment of the research area;
aiming at mineral resource risks, heat wells in a research area range are digitized into space point positions, the exploitation amount attributes are interpolated by using a kriging interpolation value to generate a geothermal resource exploitation amount distribution diagram, the exploitation amount of the regional geothermal resources is referred to, high, medium and low grade division is carried out on the exploitation amount of the research area, and the high, medium and low grade division is used for representing the risk of the regional geothermal resource overload exploitation.
Optionally, in step S4, the evaluation indexes are subjected to quantity division according to expert experience and specific conditions of the research area, and an appropriate evaluation method is selected according to characteristics of various risk sources to measure and calculate the risk degree of various risk sources, which specifically includes:
and the evaluation indexes of the grain safety risks adopt an index weighted average method to calculate the risks of the evaluation units:
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiThe weight coefficient of the ith index is, and n is the number of indexes;
and the evaluation index of the water resource risk adopts a water resource risk evaluation model to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit:
P＝D1+D2+D3+D4
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively risk, exposure, vulnerability and risk-reducing ability, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiThe weight coefficient of the ith index is, and n is the number of indexes;
and the evaluation index of the geological disaster risk adopts a weighted average method to calculate and evaluate the risk value of the unit:
R＝a1×A+a2×B+a3×C
wherein R represents risk index, A represents regional stability index, B represents geological disaster development degree index, C represents human activity influence index, a1、a2、a3Is a weight;
the evaluation index of the ecological risk adopts a risk degree evaluation mathematical model to evaluate the unit risk value, and the expression of the ecological risk degree evaluation mathematical model is as follows:
Ri＝Ci×Vi
in the formula, RiTo a degree of risk, CiIs dangerous; viIs a vulnerability;
the evaluation index of the mineral resource risk adopts a kriging interpolation method to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit, wherein the interpolation calculation formula is as follows:
where h is the distance between the points, n is the number of pairs of sample points separated by h, and z is the attribute value of the point.
Optionally, in step S5, the county area is used as an evaluation unit, the evaluation index risk degrees of the development risk sources of each country are integrated, the weighted average method is used to calculate the risk values of the evaluation units, and the classification of risk areas with different grades specifically includes:
based on the evaluation results of the five risk sources, selecting each village and town of the research area as an evaluation unit, integrating each risk evaluation data, and calculating the risk value of each evaluation unit by adopting a weighted average method and taking the area proportion of each risk grade in the evaluation unit as a weight, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is the risk index of the evaluation unit, W is the weight coefficient of each evaluation index, and A is the quantized value of each evaluation index.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects: according to the construction method of the multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on the hierarchical framework, provided by the invention, (1) risk assessment is developed from the perspective of a plurality of risk sources at the same time, so that the limitation of single risk source assessment is avoided; (2) aiming at risk factors of each risk source, a complete evaluation index system is respectively established based on a hierarchical analysis framework, the method is more applicable, the index system is more comprehensive, and the method is more realistic and meaningful for developing regional territorial development work; in conclusion, decision reference can be provided for the territory planning of the research area, and a new thought and a referential experience are provided for the research of the territory development risk assessment method.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a grain safety risk assessment model;
FIG. 3 is a water resource risk assessment model;
FIG. 4 is a geological disaster risk assessment hierarchy model;
fig. 5 is an ecological risk assessment model.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework, which is characterized in that a multi-risk source index system is constructed on the basis of element data such as land, grains, ecology, resources, disasters, social economy and the like and on the basis of a hierarchical analysis model framework, and a suitable evaluation method is selected according to various risk source characteristics to develop comprehensive evaluation research of homeland development risks from multiple scales.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
s1, analyzing the land resource development data and determining the land development influence factors;
s2, determining a homeland development risk source based on the homeland development influence factors;
s3, constructing a multi-risk source index system by taking an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework based on various homeland development risk sources, and scoring the relative importance among the evaluation indexes of the different homeland development risk sources by using a '1-9' scale method to determine the weight of each evaluation index;
s4, performing magnitude division on each evaluation index according to expert experience and the specific situation of a research area, selecting a proper evaluation method according to the characteristics of each risk source, and measuring and calculating the risk degree of each risk source;
s5, integrating the risk degrees of the evaluation indexes of the soil development risk sources of all countries by taking county areas as evaluation units, calculating the risk values of the evaluation units by adopting a weighted average method, and dividing risk areas with different grades;
and S6, evaluating the risk level and analyzing the territory development risk source by adopting the method the same as the step S5 and taking the villages and the towns as evaluation units, thereby realizing the comprehensive evaluation of the territory development risk.
Wherein, in the step S1, the homeland resource development data are analyzed to determine the influence factors of the homeland development, which specifically includes:
based on a homeland resource development database, acquiring data of land, grain, ecology, resources, disasters, socioeconomic population factors;
based on the element data, a GIS space analysis function, an Excel, Matlab and Python calculation analysis function are utilized to analyze that farming conditions, grain supply conditions, groundwater conditions, water resource supply conditions, geological structure conditions, regional stability conditions, disaster development degree, ecological vulnerability degree, geothermal resource utilization degree, social and economic conditions and human activity intensity are national and local development influence factors.
The method identifies five types of risk groups influencing the development of the national soil space of the research area by screening, counting and analyzing data in the data of water conservancy, earthquake, meteorological agriculture, environment and other departments in the research area, and mainly comprises grain safety risk, water resource risk, geological disaster risk, ecological risk and mineral resource development risk. The grain safety risk is mainly influenced by the factors of arable land conditions, grain supply and natural disaster risk; the risk of water resources is mainly limited by the water quality and the water quantity of the local water, so that the risk is caused in the aspects of industry, agriculture and life; the main surface of the geological disaster risk is caused by ground settlement and ground seam development; the ecological environment risks are mainly generated under the combined action of the influences of risk sources such as underground water overstrain, flood, geological disasters and the like and the fragility of a local ecological system; mineral resource risks are mainly manifested as geothermal mining overload risks.
Therefore, the step S2, based on the territorial development influencing factors, determines the territorial development risk source, and specifically includes:
the homeland development risk source comprises grain safety risk, water resource risk, geological disaster risk, ecological risk and mineral resource risk.
The step S3 is to construct a multi-risk-source index system based on various homeland development risk sources by using an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework, score the relative importance among the evaluation indexes of different homeland development risk sources by using a "1-9" scaling method, and determine the weight of each evaluation index, which specifically includes:
first, regarding the food safety risk, the main risk sources affecting the food safety in China are natural disasters, resource constraints, investment constraints, consumption requirements, and international trade 5 categories. As the work is mainly aiming at the grain safety risk of county-level regional scales, the influence of international trade factors is not considered. The natural disaster risk refers to the risk of directly or indirectly threatening the grain safety due to the occurrence of natural disasters, and mainly comprises agricultural meteorological disasters, disease and pest disasters and foreign species invasion; the resource constraint risk refers to the grain safety risk caused by the sudden change or gradual change of the background condition of the resource environment, and mainly comprises pesticide input cost constraint, fertilizer input cost constraint, agricultural machinery input, reduction of seeding area, mulch input cost constraint and labor shortage; the input constraint risk refers to the risk of shortage of productive food caused by production input change, and mainly comprises arable land resource constraint and water resource constraint; the consumption demand risk refers to the contradiction risk between supply and demand caused by the change of food consumption or consumption structure due to population growth or economic development, and mainly comprises population increase, income level change, food consumption structure change, seed grain consumption and loss increase. According to the factor analysis, a grain safety risk evaluation model is constructed by referring to the actual situation of the research area, as shown in fig. 2.
From the perspective of grain capacity, combining objective statistical data conditions and other relevant research achievements of scholars, comprehensively considering the practical conditions of grain safety in a research area, qualitatively identifying risk factors of grain safety, establishing a grain safety risk evaluation index system by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), wherein the grain safety risk evaluation index system takes grain safety risk evaluation as a target layer, covers 3 primary evaluation indexes including farming conditions, grain supply and natural disasters and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes, scores the relative importance among different indexes by using a 1-9 scaling method, and determines the weight of each index;
TABLE 1 index system for evaluating grain safety risk
Secondly, aiming at the water resource risk, a natural disaster risk theory is introduced into the water resource risk evaluation. The water resource risk is the comprehensive reflection of nature, economy and society. The formation and the disaster intensity of the artificial ecological water resource are determined by the water resource quantity and the water quality condition, are influenced by the industrial water consumption, the irrigation water utilization coefficient, the urban construction development industrial layout, the economic development level, the population growth and the like, also depend on the human factors such as the economic structure, the social environment and the like, and are also influenced by four factors of natural disaster risks. Based on a natural disaster risk forming mechanism and water resource risk identification, forming process and principle. A conceptual model diagram of water resource risk assessment is built as shown below, and is shown in FIG. 3. The formation of water resource risks and the intensity of the risks are generally caused by the comprehensive effects of water quality, water quantity conditions, industrial, agricultural and domestic water conditions and the like in various aspects of nature, economy and society. This is similar to the natural disaster risk theory, where natural disaster risk refers to the degree of disaster that can be reached and the probability of occurrence within the next several years. In general, natural disaster risk consists of danger, exposure, vulnerability. The disaster prevention and reduction capability also has a large effect on the degree of natural disaster risk. Therefore, in the process of forming the regional natural disaster risk, the exposure, the vulnerability and the disaster prevention and reduction capability are all the same, and the natural disaster risk is the result of the comprehensive action of the four.
Aiming at the water resource risk, an analytic hierarchy process is adopted to establish a water resource risk evaluation index system, as shown in table 2, 4 primary evaluation indexes of risk, exposure, vulnerability and risk reduction capability and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes are covered, and the weight of each index is determined.
TABLE 2 Water resource Risk assessment index System
Thirdly, aiming at the risk of the geological disaster, the evaluation of the risk of the geological disaster in the research area is to evaluate the probability of the disaster, the position and the degree of the disaster after comprehensively considering the stability (terrain, landform, engineering geological condition, hydrogeological condition, structure, earthquake, etc.) of the area of the disaster, the development degree of the disaster (ground subsidence and ground fissure) and the activity intensity of human (underground water, population density and man-made GDP) and the interaction thereof.
Dividing the geological disaster risk evaluation model into three layers by adopting a hierarchical analysis method, wherein as shown in fig. 4, the first layer from top to bottom is a target layer, namely the risk of the geological disaster, the second layer is a criterion layer, namely the regional stability, the development degree of the geological disaster and the influence of human activities, and the third layer is used for detailing indexes of each criterion and establishing a risk evaluation hierarchical model on the basis of the indexes; according to the geological disaster risk evaluation hierarchical model, a geological disaster risk evaluation index system is constructed based on three evaluation indexes, namely regional stability, geological disaster development degree and human activity influence, and as shown in table 3, the weight of an evaluation factor is calculated according to an AHP method.
TABLE 3 geological disaster Risk evaluation index System
Fourth, for ecological risks, the risk degree is a characterization of regional ecological risks, and the risk degree includes information of the intensity of the risk source, the characteristics of the risk receptor, the damage of the risk source to the receptor, and the like. On the basis of the conventional ecological risk evaluation research, by taking the disaster evaluation research method as a reference, indexes are selected from two aspects of risk of a risk source and vulnerability of an ecological system to construct a regional ecological risk evaluation model, and the specific figure is shown in fig. 5.
On the basis of the conventional ecological risk evaluation research, a disaster risk evaluation research method is referred, an index is selected according to the current situation of ecological environment of a research area from the two aspects of risk of a risk factor and vulnerability of a risk receptor, a regional ecological risk evaluation index system is constructed by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, as shown in table 4, the regional ecological risk evaluation index system is used for representing the risk of the regional ecological risk, and the weight of an evaluation factor is evaluated by adopting an expert scoring method on the basis of fully considering the current situation of ecological environment of the research area;
TABLE 4 ecological Risk assessment index System
Fifthly, aiming at mineral resource risks, the mineral resources which are being exploited and utilized at present are mainly geothermal resources, and geothermal resources in a research area are rich, but due to the lack of scientific planning guidance for developing geothermal water resources, the mineral resources face the exploitation risk of the heat resources with ground heat overload at present. The present geothermal resource risk assessment mainly uses a Kriging interpolation method, also called a spatial local interpolation method, which is first proposed in 1951 as an interpolation method in geostatistics, and is an optimal, linear and unbiased spatial interpolation method. After the mutual relation among the data is fully considered, each data is endowed with a certain weight coefficient, and the weighted average is carried out to obtain an estimated value; the method comprises the steps of digitizing hot wells in a research area into spatial point positions, interpolating mining quantity attributes by using a kriging interpolation value to generate a geothermal resource mining quantity distribution map, and performing high-level, medium-level and low-level division on the mining quantity of the research area with reference to the mining scale of the geothermal resources of the research area to represent the risk of the overload mining of the geothermal resources of the area.
In the step S4, the evaluation indexes are divided into values according to expert experiences and specific conditions of the research area, and an appropriate evaluation method is selected according to characteristics of various risk sources to measure and calculate the risk degree of various risk sources, which specifically includes:
and the evaluation indexes of the grain safety risks adopt an index weighted average method to calculate the risks of the evaluation units:
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiIs the weight of the i-th indexThe coefficient, n is the index number;
and the evaluation index of the water resource risk adopts a water resource risk evaluation model to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit:
P＝D1+D2+D3+D4
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively risk, exposure, vulnerability and risk-reducing ability, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiThe weight coefficient of the ith index is, and n is the number of indexes;
and the evaluation index of the geological disaster risk adopts a weighted average method to calculate and evaluate the risk value of the unit:
R＝a1×A+a2×B+a3×C
wherein R represents risk index, A represents regional stability index, B represents geological disaster development degree index, C represents human activity influence index, a1、a2、a3Is a weight;
the evaluation index of the ecological risk adopts a risk degree evaluation mathematical model to evaluate the unit risk value, and the expression of the ecological risk degree evaluation mathematical model is as follows:
Ri＝Ci×Vi
in the formula, RiTo a degree of risk, CiIs dangerous; viIs a vulnerability;
the evaluation index of the mineral resource risk adopts a kriging interpolation method to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit, wherein the interpolation calculation formula is as follows:
where h is the distance between the points, n is the number of pairs of sample points separated by h, and z is the attribute value of the point.
The step S5 is to take the county area as an evaluation unit, integrate the evaluation index risk degrees of the development risk sources of each country, calculate the risk values of the evaluation unit by using a weighted average method, and classify the risk areas of different grades, which specifically includes:
based on the evaluation results of the five risk sources, selecting each village and town of the research area as an evaluation unit, integrating each risk evaluation data, and calculating the risk value of each evaluation unit by adopting a weighted average method and taking the area proportion of each risk grade in the evaluation unit as a weight, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is the risk index of the evaluation unit, W is the weight coefficient of each evaluation index, and A is the quantized value of each evaluation index.
And (3) calculating the risk index range of each risk source of the evaluation unit to be 1-5, carrying out grading assignment on the evaluation unit when the index is higher and the risk grade is higher, dividing the risk grade into three grades of high risk, medium risk and low risk as shown in a table 5, and combining the evaluation results of the five risk sources to finish the county risk grade evaluation.
TABLE 5 Risk assessment criteria
| R | <2.35 | 2.35-3.65 | >3.65 |
| Degree of risk | Low risk | Middle risk | High risk |
For the village and town risk assessment in step S6, based on the above five risk source evaluation results, selecting each village and town of the research area as an evaluation unit, integrating each risk evaluation data, and calculating the risk value of each evaluation unit by using the weighted average method and the area ratio of each risk level in the evaluation unit as a weight, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is the risk index of the evaluation unit, W is the weight coefficient of each evaluation index, and A is the quantized value of each evaluation index.
And (3) calculating the risk index range of each risk source of the evaluation unit to be 1-5, assigning the evaluation unit in a grading way if the risk index is higher, dividing the risk grade into three grades of high risk, medium risk and low risk as shown in a table 5, overlapping the calculation results of the villages and the towns, and finishing comprehensive risk grade evaluation of the villages and the towns.
According to the construction method of the multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on the hierarchical framework, provided by the invention, (1) risk assessment is developed from the perspective of a plurality of risk sources at the same time, so that the limitation of single risk source assessment is avoided; (2) aiming at risk factors of each risk source, a complete evaluation index system is respectively established based on a hierarchical analysis framework, the method is more applicable, the index system is more comprehensive, and the method is more realistic and meaningful for developing regional territorial development work; in conclusion, decision reference can be provided for the territory planning of the research area, and a new thought and a referential experience are provided for the research of the territory development risk assessment method.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core concept of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.
Claims (6)
1. A construction method of a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, analyzing the land resource development data and determining the land development influence factors;
s2, determining a homeland development risk source based on the homeland development influence factors;
s3, constructing a multi-risk source index system by taking an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework based on various homeland development risk sources, and scoring the relative importance among the evaluation indexes of the different homeland development risk sources by using a '1-9' scale method to determine the weight of each evaluation index;
s4, performing magnitude division on each evaluation index according to expert experience and the specific situation of a research area, selecting a proper evaluation method according to the characteristics of each risk source, and measuring and calculating the risk degree of each risk source;
s5, integrating the risk degrees of the evaluation indexes of the soil development risk sources of all countries by taking county areas as evaluation units, calculating the risk values of the evaluation units by adopting a weighted average method, and dividing risk areas with different grades;
and S6, evaluating the risk level and analyzing the territory development risk source by adopting the method the same as the step S5 and taking the villages and the towns as evaluation units, thereby realizing the comprehensive evaluation of the territory development risk.
2. The method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 of analyzing homeland resource development data and determining the factors affecting homeland development specifically comprises:
based on a homeland resource development database, acquiring data of land, grain, ecology, resources, disasters, socioeconomic population factors;
based on the element data, a GIS space analysis function, an Excel, Matlab and Python calculation analysis function are utilized to analyze that farming conditions, grain supply conditions, groundwater conditions, water resource supply conditions, geological structure conditions, regional stability conditions, disaster development degree, ecological vulnerability degree, geothermal resource utilization degree, social and economic conditions and human activity intensity are national and local development influence factors.
3. The method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework according to claim 2, wherein the step S2 is to determine a homeland development risk source based on a homeland development influencing factor, and specifically includes:
the homeland development risk source comprises grain safety risk, water resource risk, geological disaster risk, ecological risk and mineral resource risk.
4. The method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical framework according to claim 3, wherein the step S3 is to construct a multi-risk source index system based on multiple homeland development risk sources by using an analytic hierarchy process as a model framework, score the relative importance among the assessment indexes of different homeland development risk sources by using a '1-9' scale method, and determine the weight of each assessment index, specifically comprising:
the method comprises the steps of qualitatively identifying risk factors of grain safety aiming at grain safety risks, establishing a grain safety risk evaluation index system by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, wherein the grain safety risk evaluation index system takes the grain safety risk evaluation as a target layer, covers 3 primary evaluation indexes including farming conditions, grain supply and natural disasters and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes, scores the relative importance among different indexes by utilizing a 1-9 scaling method, and determines the weight of each index;
aiming at water resource risks, establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, covering 4 primary evaluation indexes of dangerousness, exposition, fragility and risk reduction capacity and a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes, and determining the weight of each index;
aiming at the risk of the geological disaster, a hierarchical analysis method is adopted to divide the geological disaster risk evaluation model into three layers, wherein the first layer from top to bottom is a target layer, namely the risk of the geological disaster, the second layer is a criterion layer, namely the regional stability, the development degree of the geological disaster and the influence of human activities, and the third layer is used for detailing indexes of each criterion so as to establish a risk evaluation hierarchical model on the basis; according to a geological disaster risk evaluation hierarchical model, constructing a geological disaster risk evaluation index system based on three evaluation indexes of regional stability, geological disaster development degree and human activity influence, and calculating the weight of an evaluation factor according to an AHP method;
aiming at ecological risks, on the basis of the conventional ecological risk evaluation research, a disaster risk evaluation research method is referred, the risk of risk factors and the vulnerability of risk receptors are considered, indexes are selected according to the current situation of the ecological environment of a research area, a regional ecological risk evaluation index system is constructed by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and is used for representing the risk of the regional ecological risks, and the weights of evaluation factors are evaluated by adopting an expert scoring method on the basis of fully considering the current situation of the ecological environment of the research area;
aiming at mineral resource risks, heat wells in a research area range are digitized into space point positions, the exploitation amount attributes are interpolated by using a kriging interpolation value to generate a geothermal resource exploitation amount distribution diagram, the exploitation amount of the regional geothermal resources is referred to, high, medium and low grade division is carried out on the exploitation amount of the research area, and the high, medium and low grade division is used for representing the risk of the regional geothermal resource overload exploitation.
5. The method for constructing the multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on the hierarchical framework according to claim 4, wherein the step S4 is to perform the quantity division of each assessment index according to the expert experience and the specific conditions of the research area, select the appropriate evaluation method according to the characteristics of each risk source, measure and calculate the risk degree of each risk source, and specifically comprises the following steps:
and the evaluation indexes of the grain safety risks adopt an index weighted average method to calculate the risks of the evaluation units:
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiThe weight coefficient of the ith index is, and n is the number of indexes;
and the evaluation index of the water resource risk adopts a water resource risk evaluation model to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit:
P＝D1+D2+D3+D4
and is provided with
Wherein P is the overall risk value obtained by the evaluation unit, D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively risk, exposure, vulnerability and risk-reducing ability, AiIs a quantized value of the i-th index, WiThe weight coefficient of the ith index is, and n is the number of indexes;
and the evaluation index of the geological disaster risk adopts a weighted average method to calculate and evaluate the risk value of the unit:
R＝a1×A+a2×B+a3×C
wherein R represents risk index, A represents regional stability index, B represents geological disaster development degree index, C represents human activity influence index, a1、a2、a3Is a weight;
the evaluation index of the ecological risk adopts a risk degree evaluation mathematical model to evaluate the unit risk value, and the expression of the ecological risk degree evaluation mathematical model is as follows:
Ri＝Ci×Vi
in the formula, RiTo a degree of risk, CiIs dangerous; viIs a vulnerability;
the evaluation index of the mineral resource risk adopts a kriging interpolation method to calculate the risk value of the evaluation unit, wherein the interpolation calculation formula is as follows:
where h is the distance between the points, n is the number of pairs of sample points separated by h, and z is the attribute value of the point.
6. The method for constructing a multi-source homeland development risk assessment system based on a hierarchical frame according to claim 5, wherein in step S5, a county area is used as an evaluation unit, the risk degrees of the evaluation indexes of the various homeland development risk sources are integrated, the risk values of the evaluation units are calculated by a weighted average method, and the dividing of the risk areas with different levels specifically comprises:
based on the evaluation results of the five risk sources, selecting each village and town of the research area as an evaluation unit, integrating each risk evaluation data, and calculating the risk value of each evaluation unit by adopting a weighted average method and taking the area proportion of each risk grade in the evaluation unit as a weight, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, R is an evaluation unit risk index, W is a weight coefficient of each evaluation index, and A is a quantized value of each evaluation index.
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