CN117217514A - Risk evaluation method for water delivery river channel of diversion and regulation project - Google Patents
Risk evaluation method for water delivery river channel of diversion and regulation project Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A water diversion and regulation project water delivery river risk evaluation method comprises the following steps: constructing a risk evaluation index system of a water diversion and transfer engineering water delivery river, wherein the risk evaluation index system comprises a risk rate evaluation index system and a risk loss evaluation index system, and each risk rate evaluation index system comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer; determining a risk index scoring standard of a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river, wherein the risk index scoring standard comprises a risk rate and risk loss evaluation standard and an evaluation index scoring standard of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river; determining a risk rate index/risk loss criterion layer and index weight W of a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river by using expert consultation method and analytic hierarchy process i Taking a value; and determining a risk rate index and a risk loss index of the water diversion and diversion project water delivery river channel according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system, and giving a risk rate-risk loss two-dimensional matrix diagram. The application is helpful for solving the problems of the prior artThe risk index system side of the water delivery river is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate the risk index of the water delivery river of the diversion project.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of water delivery river risk evaluation, in particular to a water delivery river risk evaluation method for a diversion and regulation project.
Background
It is well known that water resources are closely related to regional grain safety, ecological safety and economic development. However, due to the influence of geographical position, climate and other factors, the rainfall distribution is uneven, so that the water resource distribution in China has obvious space difference. In general, the characteristics of the Chinese medicine composition are that the Chinese medicine composition is more north and less south and less east and west. For water deficient areas, the problem of water resource shortage has become the biggest constraint bottleneck for regional development. In this context, the "four-horizontal three-vertical" overall layout of south-to-north chinese accents has developed. The three-longitudinal water transfer lines are east, middle and west, the four-transverse water transfer lines are Yangtze river, huai river, yellow river and sea river, and the water resource optimization configuration of China is realized by constructing the overall pattern of the four-transverse water transfer lines and the three-longitudinal water transfer lines, so that the water resource optimization configuration is a strategic infrastructure which solves the serious shortage of water resources, promotes economic development, improves environment and stabilizes society in northern areas of China.
Because the diversion and regulation project spans a wide space range, the water delivery river often has the characteristics of long line, multiple nodes, complex risk factors and the like, the effective risk management is important for guaranteeing the water supply safety of the water delivery river, and a reasonable, comprehensive, systematic and objective risk evaluation method is a precondition for developing the risk management and formulating the risk management and control strategy. However, the existing water delivery river risk evaluation method has the following defects: (1) The existing research focuses on risk rate evaluation, neglects risk loss evaluation or considers a certain element (such as river channel length) of multiple concerns about risk loss, and cannot realize normalized quantitative evaluation of risk rate-risk loss because risk loss consideration factors are incomplete; (2) The risk rate of the water delivery river relates to various contents such as hydrologic characteristics, engineering structures, river channel structures, operation management and the like, the existing risk evaluation method often focuses on a certain aspect of risk management (such as hydrologic load, embankment structures, river channel shapes and the like) and fails to reflect the characteristics of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project (compared with the common river channel, the artificial management degree is high), and the problem of the risk index of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate.
Accordingly, the application aims to provide a risk evaluation method for a water delivery river of a diversion and diversion project, which comprises the following steps: (1) Comprehensively considering the hydrologic characteristics, the river channel structure, the engineering structure and the operation management of the drainage and regulation project water delivery river channel risk rate evaluation index system, comprehensively considering factors, combining the characteristics of the drainage and regulation project water delivery river channel, and being beneficial to objectively and comprehensively evaluating the drainage and regulation project water delivery river channel risk rate index; (2) The risk loss evaluation index system of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project is constructed by comprehensively considering the failure external load and the river structure of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project, the quantitative grading evaluation of the risk loss of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project is realized, and the defect of multi-emphasis single-element risk loss in the current water delivery river evaluation of the diversion and regulation project is overcome. In addition, the quantitative and dimensionless risk index of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river channel and the risk loss index of the diversion and water transfer project are combined, and a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the risk index-the risk loss of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river channel is drawn, so that the overall risk condition of an evaluation object can be clearly reflected.
Disclosure of Invention
The application aims to provide a risk evaluation method for a water diversion and transfer project water transfer river channel, which solves the problems that the existing water transfer river channel risk rate/risk loss evaluation index system focuses on a certain aspect of risk management (such as external load, embankment structure, river channel shape, operation management and the like) or a certain element of risk loss (such as river channel length) and fails to reflect the characteristics of the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river channel (compared with the common river channel, the artificial management degree is high), and the risk index of the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river channel is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present application provides the following technical solutions:
the application provides a risk evaluation method for a water delivery river channel of a diversion and regulation project, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, constructing a risk evaluation index system of a water diversion project water delivery river, wherein the risk evaluation index system and the risk loss evaluation index system respectively consist of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
step 2, determining risk index scoring standards of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river course, wherein the risk index scoring standards and the risk loss evaluation standards of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river course are included;
step 3, determining a risk rate index/risk loss criterion layer and index weight W of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river by using an expert consultation method and an analytic hierarchy process i Taking a value; setting a matrix consistency test standard threshold, if the one-time test of the matrix is judged to pass, terminating the flow and obtaining a weight matrix of an evaluation index system, otherwise, carrying out the step again;
and step 4, determining a risk rate index and a risk loss index of the water delivery river of the diversion project according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in the step 3, and giving a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss.
Further, in the risk rate evaluation index system, the target layer is a risk rate index of a water delivery river of a diversion and regulation project, and the criterion layer comprises 4 aspects of hydrologic characteristics, river structure, engineering structure and operation management, wherein the criterion layer is focused on and specific 22 indexes, and the specific steps are as follows:
v) a hydrologic characteristic criterion layer which focuses on hydrologic conditions of river basin of a water delivery river of a water transfer project and comprises 1 index in total of flood characteristics;
vi) a river channel structural criterion layer, and focusing on two aspects of a river channel space form and a siltation hidden trouble of a water transfer project, wherein the river channel space form comprises 3 indexes in total of a river correlation coefficient, a river channel bending coefficient and a river channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the siltation hidden trouble comprises 1 index in total of a river channel siltation intensity;
vii) an engineering structure criterion layer, wherein the three aspects of a dyke body structure, a dyke base condition and a dyke construction material are emphasized, and the dyke body structure comprises 4 indexes in total, namely uniformity of the dyke body structure, width of dyke top, superelevation of dyke top and slope of dyke on river; the condition of the dyke base comprises 3 indexes of the dyke base adhesive particle content, the dyke base permeability coefficient and the dyke base compactness; the embankment building material comprises 3 indexes of the adhesive grain content of the embankment body, the permeability coefficient of the embankment body and the compaction degree of the embankment body;
running a management rule layer, and focusing on three aspects of system conditions, personnel conditions and infrastructure, wherein the system conditions comprise 2 indexes in total of management system perfection degree and emergency plan perfection degree; the personnel conditions comprise 2 indexes in total of personnel structure rationality and personnel technical level; the infrastructure comprises 3 indexes of the equipping quantity of personal computers, the sufficiency of material reserve and the traffic and transportation condition.
Further, for the risk loss evaluation index system, the target layer is the risk loss index of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project, the criterion layer comprises external load and river structure, and the index layer comprises 2 indexes of river design flow and river design length.
Further, the method comprises the steps of,
further, the step 2 determines a risk index scoring standard of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river, and specifically includes:
i) Firstly, determining risk rate and risk loss evaluation standard of a water delivery river of a diversion and regulation project:
(1) for the risk index, referring to the common practice of dam engineering, dividing the risk index of a single risk factor, namely the risk index of an evaluation object of a single risk index in an evaluation system into 1 grade, 2 grade, 3 grade, 4 grade and 5 grade, for
The risk occurrence probability is low, medium, high and high;
(2) for the risk loss index, the risk loss of a single risk factor is divided into 5 categories, namely 1 level, 2 level, 3 level, 4 level and 5 level in sequence, and the corresponding risk loss is slight, lighter, medium, important and extremely important;
ii) determining risk rate and risk loss evaluation index scoring standard of the diversion and water transfer engineering water delivery river channel, and sequentially determining risk rate/risk loss Di scoring standard under different values of a risk rate evaluation system and a risk loss evaluation system index layer through expert consultation and data consultation related industry specifications and design rules, wherein i=1, 2.
Further, the risk index assignment standard of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river determined in the step 2 is specifically as follows:
TABLE 5-1 Water diversion project river risk index scoring standard
TABLE 5-2 Water diversion project river risk loss index scoring criteria
Further, in the step 3, an expert consultation method and a analytic hierarchy process are used for determining a risk rate index/risk loss criterion layer and index weight W of the water-diversion engineering water-delivery river i The value is specifically included:
i) The expert evaluation list design comprises a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate/risk loss evaluation system criterion layer and an index layer corresponding to any criterion layer, and specifically comprises a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate criterion layer expert judgment list, a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate index layer expert judgment list, a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk loss criterion layer expert judgment list and a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk loss index layer expert judgment list; judging the relative importance degree of each risk element one by an expert with rich working experience on a water delivery river channel of a diversion and water transfer project;
ii) constructing a judgment matrix, namely sequentially constructing a risk rate/risk loss criterion layer and an index layer judgment matrix of a water delivery river of a diversion project according to m expert judgment results, wherein the specific flow is as follows:
(1) converting the judging result of m-bit expert into structural judging matrix, and converting the judging result of k-th expert into matrix R k ＝[r ij,k ](k=1, 2,., m), where r in the matrix ij,k Representing the judgment of the relative importance of the k-th expert on the i element and the j element, if r ij,k =1, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element and the j element to be equally important; if r ij,k =3, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element more important than the j element; if r ij,k =5, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element to be significantly more important than the j element, and so on;
(2) adopting a mathematical averaging method to comprehensively consider different judgments of each expert on the same evaluation object, sequentially taking arithmetic average values of judgment matrix elements of the same evaluation object (such as a risk rate evaluation system criterion layer) to obtain a judgment matrixWherein->
iii) Weight vector calculation, here using sum method to calculate the judgment matrixWeight vector of (1), in particular
The process comprises the following steps:
(1) judgment matrix array dimension normalization
(2) Normalized matrix row dimension sum conversion
(3) Normalized conversion of matrix (2)
(4) The matrix transposition obtains a judgment matrix weight vector
(5) Judgment matrix consistency judgment index calculation
Wherein lambda is max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; CI is the consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is the judgmentAverage random consistency index of matrix (obtained by table look-up); CR is the random uniformity ratio of the decision matrix.
iv) judging the consistency check of the matrix, wherein the standard threshold value of the consistency check of the matrix is set to 0.05, namely if CR is smaller than 0.05, judging that the consistency of the matrix meets the requirement, otherwise, not meeting the requirement;
v) if the one-time check of the judgment matrix is passed, the process is terminated and a weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained, otherwise, the process returns to ii) and is restarted.
Further, the step 4 is to determine a risk rate index and a risk loss index of the water diversion project water delivery river according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in the step 3, and provide a risk rate-risk loss two-dimensional matrix diagram, which specifically includes:
i) The comprehensive evaluation result of the risk rate/risk loss of the water delivery river channel of the diversion and regulation project is calculated, and the formula is
Wherein X is the comprehensive evaluation result of the evaluation object; x is X i The evaluation value of a certain evaluation index is 1 level, 2 level, 3 level, 4 level and 5 level; w (W) i The weight of a certain evaluation index;
ii) setting a risk rate-risk loss comprehensive evaluation standard of the diversion project, and dividing the risk rate comprehensive evaluation result and the risk loss comprehensive evaluation result into five categories in total according to the values (0, 1), (1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), (4, 5);
iii) And drawing a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of the water delivery river channel of the diversion and regulation project.
Compared with the prior art, the application has the beneficial effects that: carrying out
(1) The application constructs a set of drainage and water transfer project water delivery river risk rate evaluation index system comprehensively considering the hydrologic characteristics, the river channel structure, the engineering structure and the operation management, has comprehensive consideration factors, combines the characteristics of the drainage and water transfer project water delivery river, and is beneficial to objectively and comprehensively evaluating the drainage and water transfer project water delivery river risk rate index;
(2) The risk loss evaluation index system of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project is constructed by comprehensively considering the failure external load and the river structure of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project, the quantitative grading evaluation of the risk loss of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project is realized, and the defect of multi-emphasis single-element risk loss in the current water delivery river evaluation of the diversion and regulation project is overcome.
(3) According to the application, the quantitative and dimensionless risk index of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river channel is combined with the risk loss index of the diversion and water transfer project, and a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the risk index-risk loss of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river channel is drawn, so that the overall risk condition of an evaluation object can be clearly reflected.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical flow of the embodiments of the present application, the following description will simply describe the drawings used in the embodiments of the present application, but it should be noted that the drawings are only examples of the present application and should not be construed as limiting the scope.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a risk rate evaluation index system of a diversion and water transfer project water transfer river used in the risk evaluation method of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river in the embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a risk loss evaluation index system of a diversion and diversion project water delivery river used in the risk evaluation method of the diversion and diversion project water delivery river in the embodiment of the application;
FIG. 3 is a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of a water-carrying river in an embodiment of the application;
fig. 4 is a flowchart of a risk evaluation method for a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river in an embodiment of the application.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application.
As shown in fig. 4, the embodiment of the application provides a risk evaluation method for a water delivery river of a diversion and regulation project, which comprises the following steps:
1) Determining a risk rate evaluation index of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel according to the hydrologic characteristics of the area where the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel is located, the river channel structure, the project structure and the operation management factors, and constructing a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel risk rate evaluation hierarchical model, wherein the hierarchical model consists of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
2) Likewise, combining a service object and service content of the diversion and water transfer project, determining a risk loss evaluation index of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river channel from the external load and river channel structure consideration, and constructing a diversion and water transfer project water transfer river channel risk loss evaluation hierarchical model, wherein the hierarchical model consists of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
3) Determining risk index grading standards of the water diversion and regulation engineering water delivery river channel through expert consultation and data consultation (related industry specifications, design rules and the like);
4) According to expert consultation opinion, a mathematical average method is adopted to comprehensively consider different judgments of each expert on the same evaluation object, and a judgment matrix of a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river risk evaluation index system (comprising risk rate and risk loss) is determinedWherein->Developing consistency test of the judgment matrix (the test standard threshold is set to be 0.05), and if the test standard threshold is not met, returning to the step 4) to restart until the consistency requirement is met;
5) Calculating the judgment matrix by adopting a sum methodFurther determining the weight of a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river risk evaluation index system;
6) And (3) calculating the risk index of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, and drawing a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river risk rate-risk loss (the colors sequentially represent high risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk from deep to shallow).
Specific examples:
the river guiding, water saving and saving engineering is one great strategic water resource allocation and comprehensive utilization engineering across river basin and region, and is divided into three parts, including river guiding, water saving and water saving from south to north. From administrative division, the two sections of Henan province and Anhui province are related. The river guiding, jihuai engineering (Henan section) bears the tasks of producing and supplying water in 2 cities, 9 counties (cities and regions) including the surrounding area and the hills, and has large scale and complex structure. The river guiding, water delivery and river channel of the river-saving engineering (river south section) comprises a clear water river gate-Zhao Louzha and Zhao Louzha, a test quantity gate, a test quantity regulating reservoir and a test quantity gate-rear Chen Lou throttle gate, and the risk rate and the risk loss index of the engineering water delivery and river channel are evaluated by the river channel risk rate and risk loss index evaluation method.
Step 1, constructing a river channel risk rate evaluation index system of river guiding Jihuai engineering (Henan section).
Starting from the four dimensions of the hydrologic characteristics, the river structure, the engineering structure and the operation management of the area where the diversion and water diversion project water delivery river is located, the diversion and water diversion project water delivery river risk rate evaluation index system shown in fig. 1 is constructed, and comprises 1 target, 4 criteria (9 sub-criteria layers) and 22 indexes.
And 2, constructing a river diversion, water supply and river channel risk loss evaluation index system of river diversion, water supply and river channel (Henan section).
Based on the service objects and the service contents of the diversion and water diversion project, the risk loss evaluation index system of the diversion and water diversion project water delivery river shown in fig. 2 is constructed from the external load and the river structure, and comprises 1 target, 2 criteria and 2 indexes.
And step 3, determining the scoring standard of 22 risk rate evaluation indexes and 4 risk loss evaluation indexes.
The risk index assignment standard of the water diversion and regulation engineering water delivery river channel is determined through expert consultation and data consultation (related industry specifications, design rules and the like), and is shown in tables 2-1 and 2-2.
TABLE 2-1 Standard Table for assigning risk Rate indicators
TABLE 2-2 Standard Table for assigning risk loss index
And step 4, determining a risk rate evaluation index system and a judgment matrix of the risk loss evaluation index system.
According to expert consultation opinion, a mathematical average method is adopted to comprehensively consider different judgments of each expert on the same evaluation object, and a judgment matrix of a water diversion and regulation project water delivery river risk evaluation index system (comprising risk rate and risk loss) is determinedWherein->Considering that the evaluation index system has more levels, a part of judgment matrix is given here:
1) Judgment matrix of drainage engineering risk rate evaluation index system
For the 4 criteria layers contained in the "target layer": hydrologic characteristics,River channel structure, engineering structure and operation management, and expert consultation to obtain judgment matrix
The consistency ratio cr=0.018 <0.05 is calculated to meet the consistency requirement.
For sub-criterion layer indexes contained in the "river channel structure" criterion layer: space morphology and siltation hidden danger are subjected to expert consultation to obtain a judgment matrix
The consistency ratio cr=0.000 <0.05 is calculated to meet the consistency requirement.
For sub-criteria layer indexes contained in an engineering structure criteria layer: the structure of the dyke body, the condition of the dyke base and the dyke building material are subjected to expert consultation to obtain a judgment matrix
The consistency ratio cr=0.0036 <0.05 is calculated to meet the consistency requirement.
The index system condition, personnel condition and infrastructure of the sub-criterion layer contained in the criterion layer of 'operation management' are subjected to expert consultation to obtain a judgment matrix
The consistency ratio cr=0.000 <0.1 is calculated to meet the consistency requirement.
The index layer judgment matrix is similar to the above, and is not listed one by one.
2) Judgment matrix of drainage engineering risk loss evaluation index system
For the 2 criteria layers contained in the "target layer": external load and river channel structure are subjected to expert consultation to obtain a judgment matrix
The consistency ratio cr=0.000 <0.1 is calculated to meet the consistency requirement.
The index layer judgment matrix is similar to the above, and is not listed one by one.
And 5, determining the risk rate and the risk loss evaluation index weight.
Calculating the judgment matrix by adopting a sum methodAnd further determining the risk evaluation index system weight of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel, wherein the risk evaluation index system weight of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel is shown in tables 2-3, and the risk loss evaluation index system weight of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river channel is shown in tables 2-4.
Table 2-3 Water diversion project Water delivery river risk evaluation index weight
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Tables 2-4 drainage project river channel Risk loss evaluation index weight
And 6, calculating a risk index of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river, and drawing a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of the diversion and regulation project water delivery river.
And determining main design parameters of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project by referring to engineering design data, and combining the risk rate and risk loss index assignment standard of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project to obtain the risk rate and risk loss evaluation results of the water delivery river, wherein the risk rate and risk loss evaluation results are shown in tables 2-5-2-8 below.
TABLE 2-5 Main parameters of Water river Risk Rate
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Tables 2-6 Water river risk evaluation results
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Tables 2-7 Main parameters of Water channel Risk loss
Tables 2 to 8 evaluation results of Risk loss in Water-carrying river
By combining the risk index evaluation results of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river channel, a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river channel risk rate-risk loss can be drawn, and as shown in fig. 3, the colors sequentially represent high risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk from deep to light. And drawing the risk rate-risk loss two-dimensional matrix diagram by taking the quantitative and dimensionless risk rate index of the diversion and water transfer project water delivery river and the risk loss index of the diversion and water transfer project as an abscissa and an ordinate, thereby being beneficial to clearly reflecting the overall risk condition of an evaluation object.
The application is helpful for solving the problems that the existing water delivery river risk rate/risk loss evaluation index system focuses on a certain aspect of risk management (such as external load, embankment structure, river shape and the like) or a certain factor of risk loss (such as river length) and fails to reflect the characteristics of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project (compared with the common river with high artificial management degree), and is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate the risk index of the water delivery river of the diversion and regulation project.
The foregoing is merely illustrative embodiments of the present application, and the present application is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that may be easily contemplated by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present application should be included in the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (7)
1. The risk evaluation method for the water delivery river channel of the diversion and regulation project is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, constructing a risk evaluation index system of a water diversion project water delivery river, wherein the risk evaluation index system and the risk loss evaluation index system respectively consist of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
step 2, determining risk index scoring standards of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river course, wherein the risk index scoring standards and the risk loss evaluation standards of the diversion and water transfer project water transfer river course are included;
step 3, determining a risk rate index/risk loss criterion layer and index weight W of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river by using an expert consultation method and an analytic hierarchy process i Taking a value; setting a matrix consistency test standard threshold, if the one-time test of the matrix is judged to pass, terminating the flow and obtaining a weight matrix of an evaluation index system, otherwise, carrying out the step again;
and step 4, determining a risk rate index and a risk loss index of the water delivery river of the diversion project according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in the step 3, and giving a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss.
2. The risk evaluation method for the water diversion and transfer project water delivery river channel according to claim 1, wherein for a risk rate evaluation index system, a target layer is a risk rate index of the water diversion and transfer project water delivery river channel, a criterion layer comprises 4 aspects of hydrologic characteristics, river channel structures, engineering structures and operation management, and a criterion layer side point and specific 22 indexes are specifically as follows:
i) The hydrologic characteristic criterion layer is used for focusing on hydrologic conditions of river basin of a water delivery river of a water diversion project and comprises 1 index in total of flood characteristics;
ii) a river channel structural criterion layer, and focusing on two aspects of a river channel space form and a siltation hidden trouble of a water transfer project, wherein the river channel space form comprises 3 indexes in total of a river correlation coefficient, a river channel bending coefficient and a river channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the siltation hidden trouble comprises 1 index in total of a river channel siltation intensity;
iii) The method comprises the following steps of an engineering structure criterion layer, and focusing on three aspects of a dyke body structure, dyke base conditions and dyke building materials, wherein the dyke body structure comprises 4 indexes of dyke body structure uniformity, dyke top width, dyke top superelevation and dyke river-passing gradient; the condition of the dyke base comprises 3 indexes of the dyke base adhesive particle content, the dyke base permeability coefficient and the dyke base compactness; the embankment building material comprises 3 indexes of the adhesive grain content of the embankment body, the permeability coefficient of the embankment body and the compaction degree of the embankment body;
iv) running a management rule layer, and focusing on three aspects of system conditions, personnel conditions and infrastructure, wherein the system conditions comprise 2 indexes in total of management system perfection degree and emergency plan perfection degree; the personnel conditions comprise 2 indexes in total of personnel structure rationality and personnel technical level; the infrastructure comprises 3 indexes of the equipping quantity of personal computers, the sufficiency of material reserve and the traffic and transportation condition.
3. The method for risk evaluation of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river according to claim 1, wherein for a risk loss evaluation index system, the target layer is a risk loss index of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river, the criterion layer comprises an external load and a river structure, and the index layer comprises 2 indexes of river design flow and river design length.
4. The method for evaluating the risk of a water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course according to claim 1, wherein the step 2 is characterized by determining a water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course risk index scoring standard, and specifically comprises the following steps:
i) Firstly, determining risk rate and risk loss evaluation standard of a water delivery river of a diversion and regulation project:
(1) for the risk index, referring to the dam engineering convention, dividing the risk index of a single risk factor, namely an evaluation object of the single risk index in an evaluation system into 1 level, 2 level, 3 level, 4 level and 5 level, wherein the occurrence probability of the corresponding risk is low, medium, high and high;
(2) for the risk loss index, the risk loss of a single risk factor is divided into 5 categories, namely 1 level, 2 level, 3 level, 4 level and 5 level in sequence, and the corresponding risk loss is slight, lighter, medium, important and extremely important;
ii) determining risk rate and risk loss evaluation index scoring standard of the diversion and water transfer engineering water delivery river channel, and sequentially determining risk rate/risk loss Di scoring standard under different values of a risk rate evaluation system and a risk loss evaluation system index layer through expert consultation and data consultation related industry specifications and design rules, wherein i=1, 2.
5. The risk evaluation method for the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course according to claim 4, wherein the risk index assignment standard of the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course determined in the step 2 is specifically as follows:
TABLE 5-1 Water diversion project river risk index scoring standard
TABLE 5-2 Water diversion project river risk loss index scoring criteria
6. The risk evaluation method for the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river according to claim 1, wherein the step 3 is characterized in that an expert consultation method and a hierarchical analysis method are used for determining a risk rate index/risk loss criterion layer and an index weight W of the water diversion and regulation project water delivery river i The value is specifically included:
i) The expert evaluation list design comprises a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate/risk loss evaluation system criterion layer and an index layer corresponding to any criterion layer, and specifically comprises a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate criterion layer expert judgment list, a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk rate index layer expert judgment list, a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk loss criterion layer expert judgment list and a drainage engineering water delivery channel risk loss index layer expert judgment list; judging the relative importance degree of each risk element one by an expert with rich working experience on a water delivery river channel of a diversion and water transfer project;
ii) constructing a judgment matrix, namely sequentially constructing a risk rate/risk loss criterion layer and an index layer judgment matrix of a water delivery river of a diversion project according to m expert judgment results, wherein the specific flow is as follows:
(1) converting the judging result of m-bit expert into structural judging matrix, and converting the judging result of k-th expert into matrix R k ＝[r ij,k ](k=1, 2,., m), where r in the matrix ij,k Representing the judgment of the relative importance of the k-th expert on the i element and the j element, if r ij,k =1, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element and the j element to be equally important; if r ij,k =3, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element more important than the j element; if r ij,k =5, meaning that the kth expert considers the i element to be significantly more important than the j element, and so on;
(2) adopting a mathematical averaging method to comprehensively consider different judgments of each expert on the same evaluation object, sequentially taking arithmetic average values of judgment matrix elements of the same evaluation object (such as a risk rate evaluation system criterion layer) to obtain a judgment matrixWherein->
iii) Weight vector calculation, here using sum method to calculate the judgment matrixThe specific process comprises the following steps:
(1) judgment matrix array dimension normalization
(2) Normalized matrix row dimension sum conversion
(3) Normalized conversion of matrix (2)
(4) The matrix transposition obtains a judgment matrix weight vector
(5) Judgment matrix consistency judgment index calculation
Wherein lambda is max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; CI is the consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix (which can be obtained by looking up a table); CR is the random uniformity ratio of the decision matrix.
iv) judging the consistency check of the matrix, wherein the standard threshold value of the consistency check of the matrix is set to 0.05, namely if CR is smaller than 0.05, judging that the consistency of the matrix meets the requirement, otherwise, not meeting the requirement;
v) if the one-time check of the judgment matrix is passed, the process is terminated and a weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained, otherwise, the process returns to ii) and is restarted.
7. The method for evaluating the risk of the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course according to claim 1, wherein the step 4 is characterized in that the risk rate index and the risk loss index of the water diversion and transfer project water transfer river course are determined according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in the step 3, and a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the risk rate and the risk loss is provided, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
i) The comprehensive evaluation result of the risk rate/risk loss of the water delivery river channel of the diversion and regulation project is calculated, and the formula is
Wherein X is the comprehensive evaluation result of the evaluation object; x is X i The evaluation value of a certain evaluation index is 1 level, 2 level, 3 level, 4 level and 5 level; w (W) i The weight of a certain evaluation index;
ii) setting a risk rate-risk loss comprehensive evaluation standard of the diversion project, and dividing the risk rate comprehensive evaluation result and the risk loss comprehensive evaluation result into five categories in total according to the values (0, 1), (1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), (4, 5);
iii) And drawing a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of the water delivery river channel of the diversion and regulation project.
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