CN103971168A - Hazardous chemical transport hazard predicting and controlling system - Google Patents
Hazardous chemical transport hazard predicting and controlling system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a hazardous chemical transport hazard predicting and controlling system. The adjoint mode provided by the hazardous chemical transport hazard predicting and controlling system is set up on the basis of a CAMx diffusion mode and is more suitable to practical diffusion by considering affection of meteorological factors and topographic factors; starting from protective targets, the adjoint mode only needs to solve adjoint equation once to acquire risk value, and time for solving the adjoint equation is equal to time for solving diffusion equation; prediction of hazardous chemical transport coming risks is realized by application of the numerical diffusion mode is realized, practical conditions of transport objects, transport time and transport lines are comprehensively considered, elaborate risk field distribution during practical transport is obtained, blindness of emergency preparation is avoided, and a real-time hazard evaluation mode matched with actual topography, weather, environments and the like is provided, so that hazard control during hazardous chemical transport accidents is more scientific and effective. Accordingly, hazard prediction results are more accurate, hazard prediction efficiency is higher, and hazard control policy is more scientific.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to chemical safety field, relate to a kind of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction and control system.
Background technology
Statistics shows that a large amount of hazardous material incidents occur in transportation, and Hazardous Chemical Substances transport hazard prediction and prevention and control are great technical barriers.3222 of occurring in 1926-1997 Europe relate in the accident of Hazardous Chemical Substances, and 41% occurs in transportation; Between China 2002-2004, in the hazardous material incident of main cities, shipping accident ratio reaches 32%.
Hazardous Chemical Substances transports as moving hazard, has brought grave danger to transport population, environment and economy along the line.Once generation shipping accident, the casualties that traffic hazard itself causes and property loss are not main consequence, and the secondary injury such as blast, the leakage accident occurring in succession after accident is often brought more serious disaster.As having the tank car of 20 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to have an accident in Hangzhou-Zhejiang high speed upload on August 19th, 2004, cause groove tank top reduction valve rent gas leak, make around 300 meters within the scope of liquefied gas concentration reach 50%, the emergency evacuation masses more than 6000 people.On March 29th, 2005, Beijing-Shanghai Expressway Huaian section was leaked in a large number because traffic hazard causes canned liquid chlorine on car, caused 29 people's death, 456 people's severe injuries, and more than 10500 villager is forced to evacuate and shifts, and causes more than 1,700 ten thousand yuan of direct economic losses.On January 30th, 2007, there is leakage accident while travelling to Hubei Xiaogan in the transport vehicle that is mounted with dimethyl suflfate, causes 1 people's death, and up to a hundred people is poisoning.On April 26th, 2011, the groove tank car that one of Lishui of Zhejiang Songyang County is loaded with 15 tons of liquid nitrogen leaks because of accident, causes area to reach in the farmland of square meter more than 3000 and fills the air smoke high more than 1 meter everywhere, causes 4 people's death, and near forcing, village people more than 200 evacuates.On November 22nd, 2013, Qingdao oil explosion accident, causes 62 people's death, 136 people injured, 75,172 ten thousand yuan of direct economic losses.These are great, serious accident has been subject to social extensive concern, make people recognize that gradually hazardous materials transportation is not only simple logistical problem, but important social public security problem.
In addition, Japan abandons chemical weapons magnificent and has entered the destruction stage, and a large amount of day something lost chemical weapons need to be grown distance transport on a large scale, and its risk in transit is subject to wide sending out both at home and abroad and pays close attention to.Chemical defence dangerous material are as special dangerous material, taking severe poisonous chemicals as main, its physicochemical property complexity, different body characteristics are totally different, blast, leak possibility large in transportation, and in-built toxic agent toxic is strong, dangerous high, its transport possibility that has an accident is higher, and the destructiveness that accident causes is heavier, once have an accident, will cause great casualties and property to damage.
The evaluation of Hazardous Chemical Substances risk in transit, haulage track optimization, risk forecast and real-time hazard evaluation are the core contents of Hazardous Chemical Substances risk in transit prevention and control.The Hazardous Chemical Substances risk in transit factor is many, kinds of risks interacts, risk is difficult to quantitatively.The selection and optimization of transport routes is directly related with the natures such as meteorology, landform, underlying surface character, population and important goal distribution and humanistic environment, and meteorological condition is with change in time and space, because dangerous matter sources in Hazardous Chemical Substances transport also moves with space-time, the optimization of transport routes belongs to indirect problem, and its model is set up and solved all very complicated.Risk for whole transportation forecasts because of the variation of dangerous matter sources on time and space, and its risk forecast difficulty will be far longer than fixing dangerous matter sources risk forecast.In transportation, once have an accident, effectively carry out emergency disposal, must carry out real-time risk assessment, draw at short notice actual damaging range, hazard rating and harm time.
Therefore, Hazardous Chemical Substances risk in transit prediction and control relates to multiple ambits such as physics, chemistry, meteorology, control, computing machine, applied mathematics, is a complicated technical matters.
Summary of the invention
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the invention provides a kind of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction and control system, hazard prediction result of the present invention is more accurately, hazard prediction efficiency is more efficient, harm control decision is more scientific.
Prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals harm of the present invention, it comprises:
Processing module, this processing module comprises: for move the supercomputer of global atmosphere circulation pattern and region meteorological field Forecast Mode under linux system; For moving poisonous and harmful substance dispersal pattern and the data transformation engine of operation based on GIS and the server of result secondary analysis computing module under windows system under linux system; For showing that under windows system Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals close on the front-end equipment of risk forecast and real-time hazard evaluation result;
Application module, this application module comprises: meteorological field forecast module and Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module;
Further, meteorological field forecast module comprises: global atmosphere circulation pattern unit and meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, region; Global atmosphere circulation pattern unit, for obtaining the global circulation ambient field data of following 7 days, meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, drive area; Meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, region, draws meticulous three-dimensional meteorological field spatial and temporal distributions by calling meticulous GIS data in transport region;
Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module comprise: Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization model unit, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals close on risk Forecast Mode unit and the real-time hazard evaluation mode unit of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals;
Wherein, the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization of described application module and hazard prediction module need described server under windows system, to move based on GIS data transformation engine and result secondary analysis computing module are realized.
Further, apply described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization model unit carry out haulage track preferably (see " a kind of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction method ", application number: 201310301604.5):
Risk in transit nondimensionalization value to every haulage track and transportation cost nondimensionalization value are weighted summation respectively, obtain and are worth J
n=λ
rν
n(R)+λ
tν
n(T);
From all and value, find minimum value, haulage track corresponding to this minimum value is hazardous chemical least risk haulage track;
Wherein, λ
rand λ
tbe respectively the weight of risk in transit and transportation cost, and λ
r+ λ
t=1, both values are determined according to actual shipment region and route in transport.
Further, applying described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals closes on and when risk Forecast Mode unit transports, closes on risk forecast:
For transport region, application global circulation ambient field data drives wind field and the field of turbulent flow that weather forecast pattern, region meteorological field Forecast Mode draw to drive Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction pattern;
Source item, haulage track and protection target are inputted to described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and close on risk Forecast Mode, and described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is closed on to the forecast result of risk Forecast Mode and Geographic Information System and carry out integratedly, show that chemical risk distributes;
Distribute and draw emergent preparation scheme according to this chemical risk.
Further, the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of application Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is carried out real-time hazard evaluation:
In the time having an accident in transportation, application global circulation ambient field data drives weather forecast pattern, and the wind field that region meteorological field Forecast Mode draws and field of turbulent flow drive the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals;
By source item and accident time of origin and the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of place input Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals, and the real-time hazard evaluation result of real-time described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard evaluation pattern and Geographic Information System are carried out integrated, draw chemical hazard result;
Draw chemical accident emergency disposal scheme according to this chemical hazard result.
Further, application Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals closes on risk Forecast Mode and closes on the step of risk forecast and comprise:
Step 1, according to haulage track distribution characteristics and meteorological field resolution, by haulage track discretize, each discrete point closes on the position sequence of risk forecast diffusion simulations source coordinate points as haulage track;
Step 2, calculates in transportation the time series of discretize risk source according to haulage time, transportation range and road speed;
Step 3, analyzes object of transport, calculates the risk source in transportation, determines risk source material title and size;
Step 4, according to risk source character, dangerous substance rate of release while determining accident Source Type and accident, wherein accident Source Type comprises point source, line source, face source or body source;
Step 5, according to the character of transport material, determines harm index;
Step 6, the source item of dangerous substance rate of release, harm index is inputted described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and is closed on risk Forecast Mode when comprising position sequence, time series, risk source material title and size that above-mentioned steps obtains, accident Source Type and accident, calculates the risk source harm depth of each discretize in transportation;
Step 7, according to the risk source harm depth of each discretize, calculates the field distribution of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk;
Step 8, closes on Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals the forecast result of risk Forecast Mode, i.e. risk field distribution and Geographic Information System are carried out integrated, draws the concrete distribution of chemical risk in generalized information system;
Step 9, application GIS data statistic analysis function, the quantity of protection target calculation risk field in, determines guard key region or strick precaution target in transportation, draws the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals preparation scheme of meeting an urgent need.Beneficial effect of the present invention is:
1. the hazard prediction result of the present invention in route selection is more accurate.Tradition evaluation method, for simplifying calculated amount, is mostly directly used statistics accident rate, and this patent has considered the factor such as hazardous material incident liability, transport season, haulage time and road inherent feature; Be the method for rectangle, circle by damage sequence regioal hypothesis, assessed accident coverage but all cross to some extent highland.And rectangle, circular range of influence do not meet the diffusion track of dangerous material yet, obviously exist error.And adjoint mode builds based on dispersal pattern (CAMx), in pattern, consider complicated meteorologic factor, the impact of orographic factor, more suit with actual diffusion.
2. the hazard prediction efficiency of the present invention in haulage track is selected is more efficient.If traditional evaluation method adopts the method that successively solves diffusion equation, also can draw more accurately and predict the outcome, but the position of accident point selects there are a lot of, because link length is larger conventionally, solves one by one and will certainly need long time.Adjoint mode is from protection target; adjoint equation of demand solution just can obtain value-at-risk and (see document about adjoint mode method for solving: Liu Feng; Huang Shunxiang. the optimum theory of atmospheric environment risk control and application; Meteorology Publishing House; 2011.06) time that, solves adjoint equation is suitable with the time that solves diffusion equation.
3, the risk of closing on of the present invention is forecast meticulousr.Tradition Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk zones distributes and belongs to qualitative or sxemiquantitative, the method has adopted numerical value dispersal pattern, considered the actual conditions of object of transport, haulage time and haulage track, meticulous risk field distribution while having drawn actual shipment, has avoided the blindness of emergent preparation.
4. harm control decision of the present invention is more scientific.Tradition harm is controlled substantially according to relevant laws and regulations, and harm control decision belongs to qualitative or sxemiquantitative.The method is by real-time hazard evaluation system, when being provided, accident in conjunction with science decision foundations such as real-time damaging range, hazard rating, harm time and the injures and deaths probability of the situations such as actual landform, meteorology, environment, make Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals harm control more scientific and effective.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction of the present invention and control system structural representation;
Fig. 2 is the chemical risk forecast schematic diagram that closes on of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is real-time chemical hazard evaluation schematic diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is of the present invention day something lost chemical weapons risk in transit forecast schematic diagram;
Fig. 5 is dosage distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Fig. 6 is Death probit distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Fig. 7 is severe injury probability distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Fig. 8 is moderate injury probability distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Fig. 9 is real-time hazard evaluation mild or moderate injury probability distribution schematic diagram of the present invention;
Figure 10 endangers start time distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Figure 11 endangers duration distribution schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Figure 12 endangers depth schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention;
Figure 13 is hazard area schematic diagram in real-time hazard evaluation of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention relates to prior art:
NCEP data: whole world meteorology analysis of data and the forecast data again of being produced jointly by U.S. weather environment forecasting centre (NCEP) and American National atmospheric research center (NCAR), adopt current state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and perfect database, the observational data of various sources (ground, boats and ships, radiosondage, pilot balloon, aircraft, satellite etc.) has been carried out to quality control and assimilation processing.
WRF(Weather Research Forecast): a kind of Meso-scale meteorology Forecast Mode of developing centered by the scientific research institution by U.S. such as the pre-measured center of U.S. environment (NCEP), American National atmospheric research centers (NCAR), can forecast following 3～7 days meticulous three-dimensional meteorological fields.
CDM(Concentration and Dose Model or the toxic Clouds Diffusion Model overcomplex terrain): PLA Institute of Chemical Defense is yellow along three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion model on the complex-terrain based on Monte Carlo principle of auspicious foundation.This dispersal pattern, under the support of weather forecast pattern and source strength pattern, carries out diffusion simulations, draws the spatial and temporal distributions of concentration and dosage.
Fig. 4 is Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction of the present invention and control system structural representation; As shown in Figure 1, this system is divided into three parts:
Part I: processing module, is divided into three grades of supercomputer, server and front-end equipments.Supercomputer for moving global atmosphere circulation pattern (application NCEP data) and region meteorological field Forecast Mode (WRF) under linux system; Server for moving the CDM pattern of poisonous and harmful substance diffusion simulations and operation other computing modules based on GIS technology under windows system under Linux; Leading portion equipment closes on risk forecast and real-time hazard evaluation result for show Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals under Windows system, can be PC, notebook computer, panel computer and mobile phone etc.
Part II: operational module, comprises linux system and Windows system.Linux system is mainly used in moving the numerical models such as NCEP, WRF and CDM, and Windows is mainly used in moving data secondary analysis and the presentation program in application software and generalized information system.
Part III: application module, is divided into meteorological field forecast module and Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module two parts.
1, meteorological field forecast module comprises global atmosphere circulation pattern (NCEP) unit and unit, region meteorological field Forecast Mode (WRF).Global atmosphere circulation pattern draws the global circulation ambient field data of following 7 days, drive area meteorological field Forecast Mode (WRF), WRF calls meticulous GIS data (high progress landform and Underlying Surface Data) in transport region, draws meticulous three-dimensional meteorological field spatial and temporal distributions.
2, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module are divided into Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization model unit (Chemical Hazardous Materials Optimal Transportation Route Model, CHORM), Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk Forecast Mode unit (Risk Prediction Based on CDM, and the real-time hazard evaluation mode unit of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals (Real Time HazardAssessment Based on CDM, RT-CDM) RP-CDM).
(1) it is preferred that application CHORM unit carries out haulage track.Risk in transit nondimensionalization value to every haulage track and transportation cost nondimensionalization value are weighted summation respectively, obtain and are worth J
n=λ
rν
n(R)+λ
tν
n(T), from all and value, find minimum value, this minimum and haulage track corresponding to value are hazardous chemical least risk haulage track:
Wherein, λ
rand λ
tbe respectively the weight of risk in transit and transportation cost, and λ
r+ λ
t=1, both values are determined according to actual shipment region and route in transport.
(2) when application RP-CDM unit transports, close on risk forecast.As shown in Figure 2; for transport region; application global circulation ambient field data drives weather forecast pattern (WRF); the wind field that WRF draws and field of turbulent flow drive Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk Forecast Mode (RP-CDM); simultaneously by source item (object of transport character, quantity), haulage track (discretize longitude and latitude) and protection target (position and quantity) input RP-CDM; predict the outcome and the Geographic Information System (GIS) of RP-CDM carried out integrated, draws chemical risk distribution (risk class and risk zones).According to risk distribution, draw emergent preparation scheme (the preparation kind such as emergency detachment, jury rig and emergency materials and quantity).
Specifically comprise the following steps:
(1) according to haulage track distribution characteristics (position relationship between transport routes shape and transport routes and meteorological field grid) and meteorological field resolution, haulage track discretize (is got to several back end n), each discrete point closes on the position sequence s (n) of risk forecast diffusion simulations source coordinate points as haulage track, minimum 1 node, the flexibility c>=c of road in same grid of getting of road in same grid
0(c
0conventionally get 0.1, can adjust according to object of transport danger classes) time, in this grid, 1 node must be got in the place of road flexibility maximum; (2), then according to haulage time, transportation range and road speed, calculate in transportation the time series of discretize risk source
(3) according to the plan voltinism matter calculation risk source size of object of transport; (4) according to risk source character, (dangerous matter sources substance release rate calculations method is shown in document to dangerous substance rate of release while determining accident Source Type (point source, line source, face source or body source) and accident during about accident Source Type and accident: Huang Shunxiang etc., chemical risk assessment, Meteorology Publishing House, 2010.12); (5), according to the toxic of transport material, determine harm index; (6) source item (position sequence, time series, transport material title and size, type, rate of release, harm index etc.) is inputted to described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and close on risk Forecast Mode, calculate the risk source harm depth of each discretize in transportation; (7) according to risk source harm depth and the concrete distribution of damaging range in generalized information system of each discretize, calculate the field distribution of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk; (8) forecast result (risk field distribution) that Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is closed on to risk Forecast Mode carries out integrated with Geographic Information System, by the data transformation engine of numerical model scalar data and generalized information system vector data, draw the concrete distribution of chemical risk in generalized information system; (9) application GIS data statistic analysis function, the quantity of protection target calculation risk field in, determines guard key region or strick precaution target in transportation, draws the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals preparation scheme of meeting an urgent need.
(2) application RT-CDM unit carries out real-time hazard evaluation.As shown in Figure 3, in the time having an accident in transportation, application global circulation ambient field data (NCEP) drives weather forecast pattern (WRF), the wind field that WRF draws and field of turbulent flow drive the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals (RT-CDM), simultaneously by source item (danger kind, character, size) and accident time of origin and place (longitude and latitude) input RT-CDM, the real-time hazard evaluation result of RT-CDM and Geographic Information System (GIS) are carried out integrated, draw chemical hazard result (hazard area, depth, time, injures and deaths probability etc.).According to hazard evaluation result, draw chemical accident emergency disposal (warning, evacuation, protection, decontamination etc.) scheme.
Embodiment
1. close on meteorological field forecast
Transporting the previous day, to the meteorological field of following 3～7 two days, providing three-dimensional meteorological field spatial and temporal distributions for closing on risk forecast with real-time hazard evaluation.
2. close on risk forecast
Close on risk forecast the previous day in transport, protection target distribution situation risk area in while drawing actual shipment, for off site emergency force development provides foundation, application is demonstrated as shown in Figure 4.
3. real-time hazard evaluation
According to meteorological field forecast, meteorological observation in real time, accident source term, in the time having an accident, carry out real-time hazard evaluation, draw fast the key elements such as damaging range, hazard rating, harm depth, hazard area, harm time, injures and deaths probability distribution, application demonstration is as shown in Fig. 5～13, for the emergency disposals such as warning, evacuation, monitoring, protection, decontamination provide decision-making foundation.
4. forecast following Changes in weather
The following Changes in weather in haulage track region is given a forecast, and especially whether forecast has special weather phenomenon (inclement weather) to occur, in conjunction with meteorological field forecast result, the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals of second day is advised.
Certainly; the present invention also can have other various embodiments; in the situation that not deviating from spirit of the present invention and essence thereof; those of ordinary skill in the art are when making according to the present invention various corresponding changes and distortion, but these corresponding changes and distortion all should belong to the protection domain of the appended claim of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals harm, is characterized in that, comprising:
Processing module, this processing module comprises: for move the supercomputer of global atmosphere circulation pattern and region meteorological field Forecast Mode under linux system; For moving poisonous and harmful substance dispersal pattern and the data transformation engine of operation based on GIS and the server of result secondary analysis computing module under windows system under linux system; For showing hazardous chemical route optimization, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals under windows system, closing on the front-end equipment of risk forecast and real-time hazard evaluation result;
Application module, this application module comprises: meteorological field forecast module and Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module;
Further, meteorological field forecast module comprises: global atmosphere circulation pattern unit and meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, region; Global atmosphere circulation pattern unit, for obtaining the global circulation ambient field data of following 7 days, meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, drive area; Meteorological field Forecast Mode unit, region, draws meticulous three-dimensional meteorological field spatial and temporal distributions by calling meticulous GIS data in transport region;
Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization and hazard prediction module comprise: Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization model unit, Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals close on risk Forecast Mode unit and the real-time hazard evaluation mode unit of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals;
Wherein, the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization of described application module and hazard prediction module need described server under windows system, to move based on GIS data transformation engine and result secondary analysis computing module are realized.
2. prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals as claimed in claim 1 harm, is characterized in that, applying described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals route optimization model unit, to carry out haulage track preferred:
Risk in transit nondimensionalization value to every haulage track and transportation cost nondimensionalization value are weighted summation respectively, obtain and are worth J
n=λ
rν
n(R)+λ
tν
n(T);
From all and value, find minimum value, haulage track corresponding to this minimum value is hazardous chemical least risk haulage track;
Wherein, λ
rand λ
tbe respectively the weight of risk in transit and transportation cost, and λ
r+ λ
t=1, both values are determined according to actual shipment region and route in transport.
3. prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals as claimed in claim 1 harm, is characterized in that, applies described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and close on and when risk Forecast Mode unit transports, close on risk forecast:
For transport region, application global circulation ambient field data drives wind field and the field of turbulent flow that weather forecast pattern, region meteorological field Forecast Mode draw to drive Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard prediction pattern;
Source item, haulage track and protection target are inputted to described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and close on risk Forecast Mode, and described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is closed on to the forecast result of risk Forecast Mode and Geographic Information System and carry out integratedly, show that chemical risk distributes;
Distribute and draw emergent preparation scheme according to this chemical risk, wherein source item comprises time, place, material title, size, shape, character.
4. prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals harm as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of application Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is carried out real-time hazard evaluation:
In the time having an accident in transportation, application global circulation ambient field data drives weather forecast pattern, and the wind field that region meteorological field Forecast Mode draws and field of turbulent flow drive the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals;
By source item and accident time of origin and the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of place input Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals, and the real-time hazard evaluation result of real-time described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals hazard evaluation pattern and Geographic Information System are carried out integrated, draw chemical hazard result;
Draw chemical accident emergency disposal scheme according to this chemical hazard result.
5. prediction and the control system of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals harm as claimed in claim 4, is characterized in that, the step that the real-time hazard evaluation pattern of application Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals is carried out real-time hazard evaluation comprises:
Step 1, according to haulage track distribution characteristics and meteorological field resolution, by haulage track discretize, each discrete point closes on the position sequence of risk forecast diffusion simulations source coordinate points as haulage track;
Step 2, calculates in transportation the time series of discretize risk source according to haulage time, transportation range and road speed;
Step 3, analyzes object of transport, calculates the risk source in transportation, determines risk source material title and size;
Step 4, according to risk source character, dangerous substance rate of release while determining accident Source Type and accident, wherein accident Source Type comprises point source, line source, face source or body source;
Step 5, according to the character of transport material, determines harm index;
Step 6, the source item of dangerous substance rate of release, harm index is inputted described Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals and is closed on risk Forecast Mode when comprising position sequence, time series, risk source material title and size that above-mentioned steps obtains, accident Source Type and accident, calculates the risk source harm depth of each discretize in transportation;
Step 7, according to the risk source harm depth of each discretize, calculates the field distribution of Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals risk;
Step 8, closes on Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals the forecast result of risk Forecast Mode, i.e. risk field distribution and Geographic Information System are carried out integrated, draws the concrete distribution of chemical risk in generalized information system;
Step 9, application GIS data statistic analysis function, the quantity of protection target calculation risk field in, determines guard key region or strick precaution target in transportation, draws the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals preparation scheme of meeting an urgent need.
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| 唐丽娟: "基于GIS的核事故危害预测预警与优化控制系统集成方法研究", 《第十六届全国核电子学与核探测技术学术年会论文集（下册）》 * |
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| CN104766181A (en) * | 2015-04-28 | 2015-07-08 | 上海海事大学 | Chemical enterprise purchasing management decision support system based on GIS |
| CN104766181B (en) * | 2015-04-28 | 2018-06-19 | 上海海事大学 | Chemical enterprise purchasing management DSS based on GIS |
| CN107967548A (en) * | 2016-10-19 | 2018-04-27 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | The probabilistic safety assessment method of nuclear fuel highway transportation |
| CN109002959A (en) * | 2018-06-11 | 2018-12-14 | 北京石油化工学院 | A kind of harmful influence risk in transit forecasting system based on big data |
| CN113048996A (en) * | 2021-02-19 | 2021-06-29 | 北京华油信通科技有限公司 | Hazardous chemical road transport driver portrait generation method based on position data |
| CN113048996B (en) * | 2021-02-19 | 2023-11-28 | 北京华油信通科技有限公司 | Dangerous chemical road transportation driver portrait generation method based on position data |
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