CN110503261B - Evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster-causing risk - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an evacuation path optimization method based on domino disaster causing risks of dust explosion, which belongs to the technical field of path optimization and is characterized in that FreeFta software is utilized to construct an accident tree of dust explosion of a dangerous source, on the basis of obtaining five conditional probabilities of pentagon dust explosion, the FreeFta software is utilized to calculate the possibility F of dust explosion of the dangerous source, then DESC software is utilized to simulate the disaster causing consequence of dust explosion under domino effect, the result of dust explosion disaster causing under domino effect, namely overpressure distribution, is obtained, a Probit model is utilized to calculate the severity S of the result after dust explosion, finally, a quantitative risk value is obtained by utilizing a risk model, and a path with smaller risk is selected by comparing the magnitude of the risk to achieve the purpose of evacuation path optimization. The method reduces the risk of secondary dust explosion injury of the escape crowd, and effectively fills the blank of evacuation path optimization under continuous disaster in dust explosion.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of path optimization, in particular to an evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster causing risks.
Background
In the production industries of explosion-related dust such as polishing and grinding of metal or plastic products, grain processing and the like, due to the production process and the like, a plurality of production vehicles or packing workshops which are intensive in personnel are interconnected and communicated through dust pipelines, and a set of dust removal system is shared. Although the dedusting cost can be greatly reduced by the way of interconnecting and communicating the workshops through pipelines, the safety risk is increased. An initial explosion occurs at any point in the dedusting system and the explosion flame will propagate along the interconnecting piping to other parts of the system resulting in a more catastrophic secondary explosion. Especially when the explosion spreads to the operation place with intensive personnel, the group death and group injury are easily caused, and the accident consequence is enlarged. Reasonable personnel evacuation response to an initiated dust explosion is a common means of reducing the consequences of casualties.
At present, personnel evacuation paths are often set at home and abroad aiming at single-frequency disaster-causing accident situations and emergency drilling is carried out, but the accident situations with continuous disaster-causing property, such as dust explosion, cannot be fully considered. If the crowd responding to the initial dust explosion flees according to the evacuation route of the single-frequency disaster-causing accident situation, dense escape personnel responding to the initial explosion intensively face the fatal threat of secondary dust explosion, and casualty consequences can be more serious than that of non-evacuation response.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides an evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster-causing risks.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: an evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster risk is disclosed, the general idea of the method is shown in fig. 1, and the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: assessing the likelihood that combustible dust involved in a hazardous source dust explosion can cause an explosion;
including dust concentration, particle size of the dust, likelihood of whether the dust is free or not;
and 2, step: assessing the likelihood that the concentration of oxidant involved in the hazardous source dust explosion can cause an explosion;
and step 3: assessing the likelihood of the presence of an ignition source involved in a hazardous source dust explosion;
including flame and direct heat sources, mechanical sparks, electrical sparks, friction sparks, static electricity, spontaneous ignition of materials, other types of possibilities;
and 4, step 4: assessing the likelihood of the presence of suspended dust involved in a hazard source dust explosion;
including shock waves, transportation processes, transfer processes, dust collector interiors, packaging processes, other types of potential for dust to become suspended;
and 5: assessing the likelihood of the existence of a confined space involved in a hazardous source dust explosion;
in the process of determining the probabilities in the steps 1 to 5, the probability related to the equipment adopts the following formula:
λ＝k/n
P(t)＝1-e -λt
wherein k is a constant from 0.24 to 0.51, n is a constant greater than 10, and t is a variable greater than 10;
step 6: the method comprises the steps that an accident tree of dust explosion of a dangerous source is constructed by utilizing FreeFta software, as shown in figure 3, on the basis of obtaining five conditional probabilities of pentagons of dust explosion, the probability of occurrence of an event at the top, namely the probability F of dust explosion of the dangerous source, is calculated by utilizing the software, wherein the pentagons of dust explosion are shown in figure 2;
and 7: simulating the disaster-causing consequence of Dust Explosion under domino effect by using Dust expansion Simulation Code, called DESC software for short;
step 7.1: building and reducing an actual factory scene in the DESC, and determining an initial condition of dust explosion of a hazard source;
and 7.2: and obtaining the result of dust explosion disaster under the domino effect, namely overpressure distribution.
And 8: calculating the severity S of the post-disaster result of dust explosion by using a Probit model;
step 8.1: applying a Probit model: y = K1+ K2ln (P) to obtain Y;
wherein K1 and K2 are rendering parameters, P is an overpressure value, and Y is a probability variable;
step 8.2: calculating the severity S of the post-disaster fruit:
wherein,
the evaluation of S on the basis of the known Y can also be carried out by looking up a conversion reference table of the probability variable Y and the severity of the dust explosion consequences S.
And step 9: on the basis of the possibility of dust explosion and the severity of the consequences, a risk model is applied:
R＝S×F
wherein R is a risk value, S is the severity of the outcome, and F is the likelihood of occurrence;
and obtaining a quantitative risk value, and selecting a path with smaller risk by comparing the risk values to achieve the aim of optimizing the evacuation path.
Adopt the produced beneficial effect of above-mentioned technical scheme to lie in: the invention effectively provides an evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster causing risks, which reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of disaster causing ranges in dust explosion continuous disaster causing accident scenes by considering the continuous disaster causing consequences of dust explosion under the domino effect, carries out risk quantitative analysis on dangerous places by combining the probability of dust explosion at a danger source, optimizes escape paths of personnel in an operation place responding to explosion by selecting paths with lower risk values for evacuation, reduces the risk of escape crowd suffering secondary dust explosion damage, and effectively fills the blank of evacuation path optimization under the continuous disaster causing in the dust explosion.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a general idea diagram of an evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster causing risk according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a dust explosion pentagon of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an accident tree structure of a dangerous source generating dust explosion constructed by using FreeFta software according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of a factory scenario for the American empire sugar factory built using the DESC software in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a diagram of a dust explosion disaster-causing overpressure profile under domino effect obtained by using DESC software in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the present invention is provided in connection with the accompanying drawings and examples. The following examples are intended to illustrate the invention, but are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
In this embodiment, taking the american empire sugar refinery with domino-effect dust explosion accident as an example, through experience accumulation and literature investigation, the probability of five conditions in the dust explosion pentagon is evaluated, and the following steps are performed:
step 1: evaluating the possibility that combustible dust involved in the hazardous source dust explosion can cause an explosion M3;
wherein the probability of the probability X3 including the dust concentration is 0.99, the probability of the probability X4 of the particle size of the dust is 0.25, and the probability of the probability X5 of whether the dust is natural is 0.99;
step 2: the probability of evaluating the possibility that the concentration of the oxidant involved in the dangerous source dust explosion can cause an explosion X2 is 0.8;
and step 3: evaluating the possibility of existence of an ignition source involved in the dust explosion of the hazard source M2;
wherein the probability of the possibility of X12 including flame and direct heat source is 0.065, the probability of X13 including mechanical spark is 0.065, the probability of X15 including electric spark is 0.065, the probability of X14 including frictional spark is 0.065, the probability of X16 including static electricity is 0.065, the probability of self-ignition of material is 0.065, and the probability of X18 including other types is 0.001;
and 4, step 4: assessing the likelihood of the presence of suspended dust involved in a hazard source dust explosion;
wherein the probability of the possibility X6 of the shock wave is 0.065, the probability of the possibility X7 of the transportation process is 0.0325, the probability of the possibility X8 of the transfer process is 0.25, the probability of the possibility X10 of the dust collector is 0.065, the probability of the possibility X9 of the packaging process is 0.0325, and the probability of the possibility X11 of other types of dust forming suspension is 0.001;
and 5: the probability of evaluating the probability X1 of the existence of a limited space involved in a hazard source dust explosion is 0.99;
step 6: the accident tree of the dust explosion of the hazard source is constructed by using FreeFta software, the structure of which is shown in fig. 3, and on the basis of five conditional probabilities of the dust explosion pentagons, the probability of the top event occurrence, that is, the probability F =3.8 × 10 of the dust explosion of the hazard source is calculated by using the software -2 ；
And 7: utilizing DESC software to simulate post-disaster results of dust explosion under domino effect;
step 7.1: building actual factory scene in DESCReduction, as shown in FIG. 4, the initial conditions for dust explosion of the hazard source were determined, in this case, the combustible material was named "frosting" and the dust concentration was "500g/m 3 ", the ignition energy of the ignition source is" 10KJ ";
step 7.2: the result of dust explosion disaster under domino effect, i.e. overpressure distribution, is obtained, as shown in fig. 5.
And step 8: calculating the severity S of the post-disaster result of dust explosion by using a Probit model;
step 8.1: applying a Probit model: y = K1+ K2ln (P) to obtain Y;
wherein K1 and K2 are rendering parameters, P is an overpressure value, and Y is a probability variable; in this embodiment, according to the method for taking values of the parameters shown in table 1, the type of injury or damage is selected as "structural damage", K1= -23.8 and K2=2.92 are obtained, and according to the overpressure profile shown in fig. 5, the overpressure value P is taken, and the value of Y can be obtained.
TABLE 1 method for evaluating parameters
Step 8.2: calculating the severity S of the post-disaster fruit:
wherein,
the evaluation of S on the basis of the known Y can also be carried out by looking up a conversion reference table of the probability variable Y and the severity S of the dust explosion consequences, which is shown in table 2; the obtained Y values corresponding to the risk areas and the severity S values of the post-disaster results are shown in Table 3;
TABLE 2 conversion of the probability variables Y and severity S of the consequences of a dust explosion
TABLE 3Y values corresponding to Risk areas and post-disaster severity S
| Area of risk | P(bar(g)) | Y | S(％) |
| A | 0.22 | 5.39 | 65 |
| B | 0.25 | 5.77 | 78 |
| C | 0.16 | 4.47 | 30 |
| D | 0.04 | 0.42 | 0 |
| E | 0.07 | 2.06 | 01 |
And step 9: on the basis of the probability of dust explosion and the severity of the consequences, a risk model is applied:
R＝S*F
wherein R is a risk value, S is the severity of the outcome, and F is the likelihood of occurrence;
obtaining a quantitative risk value R as shown in table 4;
TABLE 4 quantitative Risk values for Risk regions
| Risk area | F (yearly) | S(％) | R |
| A | 3.8*10 -2 | 65 | 2.47*10 -2 |
| B | 3.8*10 -2 | 78 | 2.96*10 -2 |
| C | 3.8*10 -2 | 30 | 1.14*10 -2 |
| D | 3.8*10 -2 | 0 | 0 |
| E | 3.8*10 -2 | 01 | 3.8*10 -4 |
And selecting a path with smaller risk as the D area or the E area by comparing the risk, so as to avoid passing through the A area or the B area and achieve the aim of optimizing the evacuation path.
Claims (5)
1. An evacuation path optimization method based on dust explosion domino disaster-causing risks is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: assessing the likelihood that combustible dust involved in a hazard source dust explosion can cause an explosion;
and 2, step: assessing the possibility that the concentration of oxidant involved in the hazardous source dust explosion can cause an explosion;
and step 3: assessing the likelihood of the presence of an ignition source involved in a hazardous source dust explosion;
and 4, step 4: assessing the likelihood of the presence of suspended dust involved in a hazard source dust explosion;
and 5: assessing the likelihood of the presence of a confined space involved in a hazard source dust explosion;
step 6: constructing an accident tree of dust explosion of a dangerous source by using FreeFta software, and calculating the probability of occurrence of a top event, namely the probability F of dust explosion of the dangerous source by using the software on the basis of obtaining five conditional probabilities of the pentagon of dust explosion;
and 7: carrying out disaster-causing consequence simulation of dust explosion under domino effect by using DESC software;
and 8: the calculation of the severity S of the post-disaster result of the dust explosion by using the Probit model comprises the following steps:
step 8.1: applying a Probit model: y = K1+ K2ln (P) to obtain Y;
wherein K1 and K2 are rendering parameters, P is an overpressure value, and Y is a probability variable;
step 8.2: calculating the severity S of the post-disaster fruit:
wherein,
the evaluation of S on the basis of the known Y can also be carried out by inquiring a conversion reference table of the probability variable Y and the severity S of the dust explosion consequence;
and step 9: on the basis of the probability of dust explosion and the severity of the consequences, a risk model is applied:
R＝S×F
wherein R is a risk value, S is the severity of the outcome, and F is the likelihood of occurrence;
and obtaining a quantitative risk value, and selecting a path with smaller risk by comparing the risk to achieve the aim of optimizing the evacuation path.
2. The method for optimizing an evacuation path based on domino disaster caused by dust explosion according to claim 1, wherein the possibility that combustible dust can cause explosion in step 1 comprises dust concentration, particle size of dust, and possibility of whether dust is possible.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the possibility of fire source existing in step 3 comprises flame and direct heat source, mechanical spark, electric spark, friction spark, static electricity, spontaneous combustion of material, and other types of possibility.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the possibility of suspending the dust in step 4 comprises shockwaves, transportation, transfer, dust collector, packing, and other types of dust suspension.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the simulation of the disaster-causing consequences of dust explosion under domino effect in step 7 by using DESC software is performed as follows:
step 1: building and reducing an actual factory scene in the DESC, and determining an initial condition of dust explosion of a hazard source;
and 2, step: and obtaining the result of dust explosion disaster under the domino effect, namely overpressure distribution.
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