CN113837662A - Medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method and device - Google Patents
Medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a risk evaluation method for a medium and low pressure gas pipeline, which comprises the steps of obtaining steel pipe corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party damage failure probability, pipe network complexity degree parameters and management system related parameters of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline; multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the respective corresponding weights, and then adding the multiplied results, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline; and determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability. The method can improve the accuracy of the overall evaluation result, reduce the loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of the pipe network, reduce the subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of the gas pipeline. The application also discloses a medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of gas safety, and particularly relates to a method and a device for evaluating risks of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline.
Background
The town gas pipe network can guarantee the operation of cities, and the application range of natural gas is developed from the life of residents to the fields of heating, power generation and the like. With the expansion of the application range, the safety problem of the gas pipeline is paid more and more attention, the service time of the gas pipeline in many cities exceeds 30 years, and due to the influence of the buried laying environment, the defects of corrosion and the like can be generated, and the accident of pipeline leakage can be caused. The town gas pipeline is generally laid in a dense area where people live such as a city center and the like, if leakage is not found in time, secondary accidents such as fire, explosion and the like can be caused, personnel property loss is caused, large-area gas stop is caused, and adverse effects are caused to normal life of people.
The method is characterized in that the method is a simple and effective evaluation method applied to a gas pipe network at present, namely an operation condition risk analysis method (LEC method), the method evaluates the magnitude of system risk by utilizing the product of three factors related to the system risk, identifies risk factors in the pipe network operation process according to experience judgment, past accidents, expert opinions and actual conditions, determines the possibility L of accidents caused by the risk factors, and gives a certain risk score; and determining the frequency E of the factor exposed to the dangerous environment and the possible consequences C of the accident in the same risk grading mode, and calculating a risk value D to obtain the danger degree of the danger source.
However, the LEC method indexes are artificially defined and are relatively simple to divide, all pipelines to be evaluated are artificially scored and judged, and the evaluation has subjectivity, high cost, long time consumption and lack of timeliness; and the LEC method only judges the risk level according to the safety risk degree, is mainly used for certain work or link, has great limitation, and the evaluation result is easy to deviate.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a method and a device for evaluating risks of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, which can improve the accuracy of an overall evaluation result, reduce loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of a pipe network, reduce subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of the gas pipeline.
The invention provides a method for evaluating risks of medium and low pressure gas pipelines, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the corresponding weights respectively, and then adding the result obtained by the addition, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
and determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the probability of corrosion failure of the steel pipe of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline includes:
acquiring basic failure frequency and corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating risk of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining the corrosion correction coefficient includes:
obtaining a thinning factor, an anticorrosive layer factor, an environmental influence factor and a historical leakage factor;
adding the thinning factor, the anticorrosive layer factor, the environmental influence factor and the historical leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
using the following formula
Calculating the corrosion correction factor FE。
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the third-party failure probability includes:
acquiring a basic failure probability of the pipeline and a third party failure probability correction factor caused by the damage of a third party;
and multiplying the basic failure probability of the pipeline caused by the third party damage by the third party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third party damage failure probability.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating risk of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the failure probability of the PE pipe includes:
obtaining the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
adding corresponding assignments of the buried depth, the construction wiring and routing design deviation degree, the PE pipe operation time and the pipeline accessory sealing condition of the PE pipe to obtain a PE pipe influence factor value;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe by the influence factor value of the PE pipe to obtain the failure probability of the PE pipe.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the complexity parameter of the pipe network includes:
and acquiring the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of pipe network pressure regulating boxes or pressure regulating stations, the production time, protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or pressure regulating stations, and the number of branch pipes and valves.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the acquiring relevant parameters of the management system includes:
and acquiring the relevant parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the following formula is used according to the management score
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
and adding the correction coefficient of the management system with the assignment corresponding to the leakage detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate to obtain the relevant parameters of the management system.
Preferably, in the method for evaluating the risk of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage is obtained according to the ratio of the failure times caused by the third party damage to the total failure times within the latest preset time;
acquiring the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the PE pipe failure in the latest preset time;
and subtracting the weight corresponding to the third party damage failure probability and the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability by using 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the steel pipe corrosion failure probability.
The invention provides a device for evaluating risks of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, which comprises:
the acquisition component is used for acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component is used for multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the corresponding weights respectively and then adding the multiplied results, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability;
and the risk grade determining component is used for determining the risk grade of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
According to the description, the risk evaluation method for the medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention comprises the steps of firstly obtaining the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; then multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the respective corresponding weights, adding the obtained result, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline; and determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability, and comprehensively considering a plurality of specific indexes of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the scheme, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors can be reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network can be improved, the subjective influence can be reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline can be guided more conveniently. The risk evaluation device for the medium and low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention has the same advantages as the method.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a risk evaluation method for a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic view of an embodiment of a risk evaluation device for a medium and low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The core of the invention is to provide a method and a device for evaluating the risk of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, which can improve the accuracy of the overall evaluation result, reduce the loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of a pipe network, reduce the subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of the gas pipeline.
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 shows an embodiment of a method for evaluating risks of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the present invention, where fig. 1 is a schematic view of an embodiment of a method for evaluating risks of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the present invention, and the method may include the following steps:
s1: acquiring steel pipe corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party damage failure probability, pipe network complexity degree parameter and management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
it should be noted that all data of the gas pipe network design, construction and operation period can be collected and parameters required by model evaluation can be screened, data related to the whole life cycle of the pipeline can be selected, and risk analysis and safety evaluation can be performed on the pipeline by using the operation data.
S2: multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the respective corresponding weights, and then adding the multiplied results, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
it should be noted that, in this step, the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is obtained by matching the failure probability of each part of failure factors with the corresponding weight addition and then correcting the complexity coefficient and the management coefficient of the reuse pipe network, and specifically, the following formula can be adopted:
wherein, P is the integral failure probability; n is the number of failure factor indicators; w is the weight of the influence of the failure factors on the overall probability; w is af、wd、weWeight of corrosion failure probability of steel pipe and damage loss of third partyThe weight of the effective probability and the weight of the failure probability of the PE pipe; pf、PdAnd PeRespectively representing the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the third party damage failure probability and the PE pipe failure probability; fwThe complexity coefficient of the pipe network; fMTo manage the coefficients.
S3: and determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
It should be noted that, according to the obtained total failure probability and according to a preset failure probability grade division table, the risk grade of the evaluation pipeline is determined, and is compared longitudinally, and by analyzing the risk grade result, the conditions in the aspects of corrosion, third party damage and the like are improved in a targeted manner, the management direction of the enterprise gas pipe network is determined, the overall management level is improved, and the risk grade can be determined by using the following table 1.
Table 1 Risk ratings table
According to the above description, in the embodiment of the risk evaluation method for the medium and low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention, the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline are obtained first; then multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the respective corresponding weights, and then adding the obtained result, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline; according to the overall failure probability, the risk level of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline is determined, and a plurality of specific indexes of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline are comprehensively considered in the scheme, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors is reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network is improved, the subjective influence is reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline is guided more conveniently.
In a specific embodiment of the above method for evaluating the risk of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, the step of obtaining the probability of corrosion failure of the steel pipe of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline may include the following substeps:
acquiring basic failure frequency and corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Specifically, the probability of corrosion failure of the steel pipe may be determined by the fundamental failure frequency (F)G) Using the data as a basis, the specific corrosion correction factor (F) of the steel pipeE) Correcting, and calculating the adjusted corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, wherein the general formula is as follows:
Pf＝FG×FE
in the formula, FGTo a fundamental failure frequency, FEThe correction coefficient is the corrosion of the steel pipe.
The basic failure frequency is compiled by utilizing a device failure history record, a literature source and a commercial reliability database in the industry, the general values represent the overall condition of the industry, but not the actual failure frequency under a specific damage mechanism, and the part of the selected basic failure frequency is shown in the following table 2:
TABLE 2 recommendation pipeline mean failure probability table
Selecting corresponding F according to the diameter of the pipeline and the size of the leakage holeGIf there are multiple lines in the evaluation unit, then F is the finalGFor the sum of the failure frequencies of various lines corresponding to the size of the leakage hole, for example, the evaluation area has DN100mm and DN150mm lines, the leakage is small hole leakage, FG＝1.3×10-6。
Wherein, obtaining the corrosion correction coefficient may comprise the following sub-steps:
obtaining a thinning factor, an anticorrosive layer factor, an environmental influence factor and a historical leakage factor;
adding the thinning factor, the anticorrosive layer factor, the environmental influence factor and the historical leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
using the following formula
Calculating corrosion correction factor FE。
It should be noted that, the step of calculating the thinning factor T is as follows:
(1) calculating a reduction severity index X:
average corrosion rate (g/dm) in common corrosion detection report of enterprise2A) unit conversion with a steel density of 7.85g/cm3To obtain 1g/dm2A is 0.013 mm/a. Obtaining a reduction severity index X by using the average corrosion rate (r), the current time (T), the production time (b) and the original wall thickness (T), wherein the formula is as follows:
(2) the level of effectiveness of each testing activity performed over three years was determined according to table 3:
TABLE 3 table for testing activity validity grade
(3) Determining a basic reduction factor TMF according to the detection times and the reduction degree index, as shown in Table 4:
TABLE 4 basic reduction factor TMF Table
(4) Calculating a safety factor s
When in use
A safety factor s of 1.0 to 1.5 (including 1.5) is 1.0;
when in use
If the safety factor s is greater than 1.5, the safety factor s is 0.5.
(5) Calculating a thinning factor T
Taking the TMF determined in the step (3) as a basic factor, and calculating the formula of T as follows:
T＝TMF×s
the anticorrosive layer factor a is calculated as follows:
the anticorrosive coating factor mainly comprises 6 indexes of pipeline anticorrosive coating type, anticorrosive layer surface resistivity, anticorrosive coating damage point, soil resistivity, stray current intensity and cathode protection condition, the value taking mode is shown in table 5, and the value of the anticorrosive coating factor can be obtained by taking and adding correction coefficients of the indexes according to the actual state of the pipeline.
TABLE 5 anticorrosive coating factor value-taking table
The factor value of the anticorrosive coating is 6 judging indexes which are assigned and added.
The environmental impact factor U may be specifically calculated as follows:
the influence of the environment on the pipeline of the community is judged by judging whether the community has terrain settlement or not, the number of times of weld opening in the current year, the current operating environment, the temperature in winter and the earthquake reaction area, and specific values of factors are shown in the following table 6.
TABLE 6 table for values of environmental impact factors
The environmental impact factor value is 5 judgment index assignment sums.
The calculation of the historical leakage factor H may include the steps of:
the historical leakage factor corrects the failure probability according to the historical failure condition, refer to table 7:
TABLE 7 historical leak factor value-taking Table
And (3) collecting the history leakage situation of the near-three almanac, and finally calculating a history leakage factor H:
for example: 5 times of leakage in the previous year, 9 times of leakage in the last year and 3 times of leakage in the current year,
in another specific embodiment of the above method for evaluating the risk of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the failure probability of the third party may include the following sub-steps:
acquiring a basic failure probability of the pipeline and a third party failure probability correction factor caused by the damage of a third party;
and multiplying the basic failure probability of the pipeline caused by the third-party damage by the third-party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third-party damage failure probability.
The method comprises the following specific steps:
obtaining the failure frequency of the pipeline caused by the third-party damage according to the statistical data, taking the failure frequency as the basic failure probability R, correcting the basic failure probability R through a third-party failure probability correction factor F, and solving the third-party damage failure probability Pd。
Pd＝R·F
In the formula: pdDestroying the failure probability for a third party; r isA basic probability of failure; and F is a third-party failure probability correction factor.
The fundamental failure probability R of a third party violation can be calculated by
In the formula: n is a radical ofkThe number of accidents occurring in the pipeline in the kth year; l iskThe pipeline length in the k year, km; alpha is the proportion of the third party damage; and m is the number of years.
The calculation of the basic failure probability requires a large amount of historical failure data such as pipe mileage, the number of accidents, failure factors and the like. For the pipe system to be evaluated, it is preferable to obtain the historical failure data of the company to which the pipe belongs, and if the company lacks the historical failure data, the basic failure probability can be obtained by the international large oil and gas pipe failure databases (such as PHMSA, NEB and EGIG). According to the failure probability model and the statistics of the PHMSA database in the past year, the basic failure probability of the third-party damage of the gas pipeline is calculated to be 2.54x10-5。
And establishing a correction factor index system, and calculating the damage failure probability of the third party of the pipeline according to the correction factor and a corresponding formula. The third party destruction is the first-level index, and the 9 factors are the second-level indexes. The value of the primary correction factor index can be obtained from the product of the value of the secondary correction factor index and the weight occupied by the secondary index. As shown in the following formula:
in the formula, FjIs the value of the secondary correction factor index; m is the number of second-level indexes in the first-level correction factor indexes; w is ajRefer to table 8 for the weight of the secondary modifier index j in the primary modifier index.
TABLE 8 correction factor index system table
Regarding the value of the correction factor, it should be noted that, in order to reduce subjectivity in the failure probability calculation process, the index of the correction factor is quantized as much as possible, and the index of the correction factor is divided into three categories in consideration of the difficulty of obtaining and quantizing each index: quantitative indexes, semi-quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes, wherein the first two types of indexes can be completely quantized or quantized and graded according to a standard manual, and only the latter type of indexes depend on the experience judgment of experts. The third party damage correction factor values are shown in tables 9 to 11.
TABLE 9 quantitative index table
TABLE 10 semi-quantitative index table
TABLE 11 qualitative index table
For semi-quantitative and qualitative correction factor indexes, the level "III" is regarded as the correction factor value corresponding to the "average level" being "1", the values of the correction factors corresponding to the other four levels are the ratios of the fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the respective levels to the fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the level "III", and the calculation results are shown in table 12.
TABLE 12 fuzzy correction factor Table
| Correction factor grade | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅴ |
| Value of the correction factor | 9.98×10-6 | 0.031 | 1.0 | 13.78 | 253.59 |
In another specific embodiment of the above method for evaluating the risk of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the step of obtaining the failure probability of the PE pipe may include the following sub-steps:
obtaining the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
adding corresponding assignments of the buried depth, the construction wiring and routing design deviation degree, the running time of the PE pipe and the sealing condition of the pipeline accessory of the PE pipe to obtain an influence factor value of the PE pipe;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe by the influence factor value of the PE pipe to obtain the failure probability of the PE pipe.
Specifically, the fundamental failure frequency can be determined to be 6.49 × 10-5The failure reasons of the PE pipe mainly include the bending of the PE pipe and the quality reasons of the PE pipe, the risk condition of the PE pipe is judged according to the bending degree of the PE pipe and the sealing condition of the pipeline accessory, and reference is made toTable 13.
TABLE 13 PE pipe influence factor value-taking table
And the PE pipe influence factor value is the sum of 4 judgment index values.
In a preferred embodiment of the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the complexity parameter of the pipe network may include the following specific steps:
and acquiring the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of the pressure regulating boxes or stations of the pipe network, the production time, the protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or stations, and the number of the branch pipes and the valves.
Specifically, the pipe network complexity factor mainly considers the number of the pressure regulating boxes (stations) of the pipe network of the community, the production time and the protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes (stations), the number factors of the branch pipes and the valves affect, and different factors have different complexity coefficients according to the importance degree:
a) number (n) of pressure regulating boxes (stations)1): the complexity coefficient of each pressure regulating box (station) in the pipeline is 3.0, and the value assignment and adjustment are carried out according to the protection and warning measures of the pressure regulating box (station), and the reference table 14 is shown:
table 14 protective measure assigning value table
b) Number of valves (n)2): the complexity factor for each valve was 4.0.
c) Number of branch pipes (n)3): any pipeline which is connected into the evaluated pipe section in a three-way mode is considered as a branch pipe, and the complexity coefficient of each branch pipe is 2.0; simplified calculation is carried out according to the number of the residential buildings and the average unit number of each building, and the formula is as follows:
number of branch pipes ═ number of units + number of stories
For example, a certain cell has 10 buildings, each building has 4 units, and the number of branch pipes and tee joints is 4 × 10+10 to 50. Passing through a voltage regulating stationThe low-voltage bus is distributed on the residential quarter trunk, a branch pipe can be generated through each building, the branch pipe can be generated through each unit, and the complexity of the residential quarter pipe network calculated by the formula after simplification is reasonable. Wherein n is1、n2And n3The number may be 0.
The overall pipeline complexity coefficient formula is as follows:
n＝(n1×3.0×f)+(n2×4.0)+(n3×2.0)
calculating the complexity coefficient c of each meter pipe section:
the overall complexity factor n divided by the total pipe length L yields a complexity factor per meter of pipe section as shown in Table 15:
table 15 network complexity coefficient table
| Complexity factor/m-1 | Pipe network complexity factor FW |
| c＜0.1 | -3.0 |
| 0.1＜c≤0.5 | -2.0 |
| 0.5＜c≤1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1.0＜c≤2.0 | 0 |
| 2.0＜c≤3.5 | 1.0 |
| 3.5＜c≤6.0 | 2.0 |
| 6.0＜c≤10.0 | 3.0 |
| c＞10.0 | 4.0 |
In another preferred embodiment of the method for evaluating the risk of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, the obtaining of the management system related parameters may include:
and acquiring relevant parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
Further, according to the management score, the following formula is used
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
and adding the correction coefficient of the management system with the assignment corresponding to the leakage detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate to obtain the relevant parameters of the management system.
Specifically, the management system correction coefficient is added with two dynamic parameters according to the existing management method and the actual condition of annual report of an enterprise at present, and the management system correction coefficient is composed of three parameters of management scoring, leakage detection frequency and operation coverage rate, so that the overall accuracy of the management coefficient is improved.
(1) If the management system evaluation is already carried out, the management system evaluation can be combined with the existing management system evaluation of the company to obtain the management system score. The management score can be converted into a management system correction coefficient by applying a formula for calculation, if the management system score is 50, the correction coefficient is 1, the possibility of failure is not affected, if the system score is 100, the corresponding management system correction coefficient is 0.1, and the possibility of failure is reduced by one order of magnitude by the following specific formula:
in the formula: b represents the system score.
(2) And carrying out index grading judgment on the leakage detection frequency assignment X and the operation coverage rate assignment Y according to a table, and referring to a table 16:
table 16 management parameter value taking table
Final management correction factor FM＝N+X+Y。
In another preferred embodiment of the risk evaluation method for the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage is obtained according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the third party damage within the latest preset time;
acquiring the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the PE pipe failure in the latest preset time;
and subtracting the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party and the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the PE pipe from 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Specifically, the weight factor takes the historical destruction times of the evaluation unit as the evaluation basis, and determines the corresponding weight according to the influence ratio of different factors on the whole. The ratio of the failure times of the cell caused by the damage of the third party to the total failure times in the last three years is wdThe ratio of the failure times of the PE pipe to the total failure times is weA value; if the district pipe network does not contain the PE pipe, we、PeAre all 0.
wf＝1-we-wd
If no third party damage occurs in the last three years, but the risk of the third party damage still exists, the value w is takendIf the cell contains PE pipe and the PE pipe has not caused a failure event for nearly three years, take we＝0.1。
In conclusion, in the method, data collection can be achieved through a detection technical means or directly collected from an operation database, risk evaluation basic data support can be achieved, semi-quantitative and quantitative combined evaluation of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is achieved by comprehensively considering the risk factors of the gas pipe network, evaluation accuracy is improved, the defects of strong subjectivity, large labor consumption and long time consumption of the conventional risk evaluation technology are overcome, and digitization and intellectualization of medium-low pressure gas pipe network risk evaluation can be achieved.
Fig. 2 shows an embodiment of a risk evaluation device for a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the present invention, and fig. 2 is a schematic view of an embodiment of a risk evaluation device for a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the present invention, the device including:
the acquiring unit 201 is configured to acquire a steel pipe corrosion failure probability, a PE pipe failure probability, a third party damage failure probability, a pipe network complexity parameter, and a management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline, and it should be noted that all data of the gas pipe network in design, construction, and operation periods may be collected and parameters required for model evaluation may be screened, which relates to the data of the whole life cycle of the pipeline, and the operational data is mainly used to perform risk analysis and safety evaluation on the pipeline.
And the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component 202 is used for multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the corresponding weights respectively and then adding the multiplied results, and multiplying the pipe network complexity degree parameters and the management system related parameters to obtain the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability.
It should be noted that the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is obtained by matching failure probability of each part of failure factors with corresponding weight addition and correction of complexity coefficient and management coefficient of the reuse pipe network, and specifically, the following formula can be adopted:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
p-overall failure probability;
n is the number of failure factor indicators;
w-failure factor affects the weight of the overall probability;
wf、wd、wethe weight of the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the weight of the third party damage failure probability and the weight of the PE pipe failure probability;
Pf、Pd、Pethe steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the third party damage failure probability and the PE pipe failure probability;
Fw-pipe network complexity factor;
FM-a management coefficient.
And the risk level determining component 203 is used for determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
It should be noted that, according to the obtained total failure probability and a preset failure probability grade division table, the risk grade of the evaluation pipeline is determined, longitudinal comparison is performed, and by analyzing the risk grade result, the current situations in the aspects of corrosion, third party damage and the like are improved in a targeted manner, the management direction of the enterprise gas pipe network is determined, and the overall management level is improved.
Each of the above components may specifically include a plurality of units for calculation, which correspond to the steps mentioned in the above method embodiments one to one, and are not described herein again.
In conclusion, the device considers a plurality of specific indexes of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors is reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network is improved, the subjective influence is reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline is guided more conveniently.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (10)
1. A risk evaluation method for medium and low pressure gas pipelines is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the corresponding weights respectively, and then adding the result obtained by the addition, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
and determining the risk level of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
2. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the steel pipe corrosion failure probability of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline comprises:
acquiring basic failure frequency and corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
3. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method of claim 2, wherein the obtaining the corrosion correction factor comprises:
obtaining a thinning factor, an anticorrosive layer factor, an environmental influence factor and a historical leakage factor;
adding the thinning factor, the anticorrosive layer factor, the environmental influence factor and the historical leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
using the following formula
Calculating the corrosion correction factor FE。
4. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the third party failure probability comprises:
acquiring a basic failure probability of the pipeline and a third party failure probability correction factor caused by the damage of a third party;
and multiplying the basic failure probability of the pipeline caused by the third party damage by the third party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third party damage failure probability.
5. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method of claim 1,
the obtaining the PE pipe failure probability comprises:
obtaining the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
adding corresponding assignments of the buried depth, the construction wiring and routing design deviation degree, the PE pipe operation time and the pipeline accessory sealing condition of the PE pipe to obtain a PE pipe influence factor value;
and multiplying the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe by the influence factor value of the PE pipe to obtain the failure probability of the PE pipe.
6. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the pipe network complexity degree parameter comprises:
and acquiring the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of pipe network pressure regulating boxes or pressure regulating stations, the production time, protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or pressure regulating stations, and the number of branch pipes and valves.
7. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining management system related parameters comprises:
and acquiring the relevant parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
8. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 7, wherein the following formula is used according to the management score
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
and adding the correction coefficient of the management system with the assignment corresponding to the leakage detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate to obtain the relevant parameters of the management system.
9. The medium and low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 8,
acquiring the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the third party damage in the latest preset time;
acquiring the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the PE pipe failure in the latest preset time;
and subtracting the weight corresponding to the third party damage failure probability and the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability by using 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the steel pipe corrosion failure probability.
10. The utility model provides a well low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device which characterized in that includes:
the acquisition component is used for acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party damage failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline;
the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component is used for multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party damage failure probability by the corresponding weights respectively and then adding the multiplied results, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the medium and low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability;
and the risk grade determining component is used for determining the risk grade of the medium and low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
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