CN113837662B - Risk evaluation method and device for medium-low pressure gas pipeline - Google Patents
Risk evaluation method and device for medium-low pressure gas pipeline Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a risk evaluation method for a medium-low pressure gas pipeline, which comprises the steps of obtaining steel pipe corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party failure probability, pipe network complexity degree parameters and management system related parameters of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party failure by the weight corresponding to each of the PE pipe and the third party failure probability, adding the multiplied result, the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system, and obtaining the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; and determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability. The method can improve the accuracy of the overall evaluation result, reduce the loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of the pipe network, reduce subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of the gas pipeline. The application also discloses a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of gas safety, and particularly relates to a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method and device.
Background
Urban gas pipe network can ensure urban operation, and the application range of natural gas has been developed from resident life to many fields such as heating and power generation. With the expansion of the application range, the safety problem of the gas pipeline is also more and more emphasized, the service time of the gas pipeline in many cities is longer than 30 years, and due to the influence of the buried laying environment, defects such as corrosion and the like can be generated, and accidents of pipeline leakage can be possibly caused. Urban gas pipelines are generally laid in densely populated areas of crowds such as city centers, if leakage problems are not found in time, secondary accidents such as fire and explosion can be caused, personnel and property losses are caused, large-area gas stopping can be caused, and adverse effects are caused to normal life of people.
The method is characterized in that the existing simple and effective evaluation method applied to the gas pipe network is an operation condition risk analysis method (LEC method), the method utilizes the product of three factors related to the system risk to evaluate the system risk, and the risk factors in the pipe network operation process are identified according to experience judgment, past accidents, expert opinions and actual conditions, the possibility L of the occurrence of the accidents caused by the factors is determined, and a certain risk score is given; and determining the frequency E of the factor exposed to the dangerous environment and the possible consequences C of the accident by using the same risk classification mode, and calculating a risk value D to obtain the risk degree of a dangerous source.
However, the LEC method index is defined manually, the division is simple, all pipelines to be evaluated are subjected to manual scoring judgment, the judgment is subjective, the cost is high, the time is long, and the timeliness is lacking; and the LEC method only judges the risk level according to the safety risk degree, is mainly used for a certain work or link, has larger limitation, and easily deviates the evaluation result.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method and the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device, which can improve the accuracy of the overall evaluation result, reduce the loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of a pipe network, reduce subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of a gas pipeline.
The risk evaluation method for the medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
acquiring parameters of corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party failure probability, pipe network complexity degree and management system related parameters of the steel pipe of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
Multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party damage by the weights corresponding to the PE pipe and the third party damage and adding the multiplied result, and multiplying the obtained result by the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system to obtain the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
and determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the obtaining the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline includes:
Acquiring the basic failure frequency and the corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
And multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the acquiring the corrosion correction coefficient includes:
Obtaining thinning factors, anticorrosive coating factors, environmental impact factors and historical leakage factors;
Adding the thinning factor, the corrosion protection layer factor, the environmental impact factor and the history leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
Using the following formula
The corrosion correction coefficient F E is calculated.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the obtaining the third party damage failure probability includes:
acquiring the basic failure probability of the pipeline and the third-party failure probability correction factor caused by the third-party damage;
and multiplying the pipeline basic failure probability caused by the third party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third party failure probability.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the acquiring the PE pipe failure probability includes:
acquiring the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
Adding corresponding assignments of the burial depth, the construction wiring and routing design deviation degree, the PE pipe running time and the pipeline accessory sealing condition of the PE pipe to obtain a PE pipe influence factor value;
And multiplying the PE pipe basic failure frequency by the PE pipe influence factor value to obtain the PE pipe failure probability.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the obtaining the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network includes:
and acquiring the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of the pipe network pressure regulating boxes or stations, the production time, the protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or stations, the branch pipes and the valve number.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the acquiring and managing system related parameters includes:
and acquiring the related parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the following formula is used according to the management score
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
and adding the assignment corresponding to the leakage detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate by using the correction coefficient of the management system to obtain the related parameters of the management system.
Preferably, in the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party is obtained according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the failure of the third party in the latest preset time;
Acquiring a weight corresponding to the failure probability of the PE pipe according to the ratio of the failure times of the PE pipe to the total failure times in the latest preset time;
and subtracting the weight corresponding to the third party failure probability and the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability from 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the steel pipe corrosion failure probability.
The invention provides a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device, which comprises:
The acquisition component is used for acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party failure probability, pipe network complexity degree parameters and management system related parameters of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
The medium-low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component is used for multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party failure probability by the weights corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability and the third party failure probability, adding the multiplied result, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter, and obtaining the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
and the risk level determining component is used for determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
As can be seen from the above description, the risk evaluation method for the medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the invention comprises the steps of firstly obtaining the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe, the failure probability of the third party damage, the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameters of a management system of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; then multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party damage by the weights corresponding to the PE pipe and the third party damage and adding the multiplied result, and multiplying the obtained result by the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system to obtain the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; and determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability, wherein the scheme comprehensively considers a plurality of special indexes of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors is reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network is improved, the subjective influence is reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline is more conveniently guided. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device provided by the invention has the same advantages as the method.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method provided by the invention;
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The core of the invention is to provide a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method and device, which can improve the accuracy of the overall evaluation result, reduce the loss caused by various risk factors, improve the intelligent management level of a pipe network, reduce subjective influence and more conveniently guide the daily operation management of a gas pipeline.
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
An embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method provided by the invention is shown in fig. 1, and fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method provided by the invention, where the method may include the following steps:
s1: acquiring parameters of corrosion failure probability of a steel pipe, failure probability of a PE pipe, failure probability of a third party damage, complexity degree of a pipe network and related parameters of a management system of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline;
all data of the gas pipe network design, construction and operation period can be collected, parameters required by model evaluation can be screened, data related to the whole life cycle of the pipeline can be selected, and risk analysis and safety evaluation can be carried out on the pipeline by using the operation data.
S2: multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party failure by the weight corresponding to each of the PE pipe and the third party failure probability, adding the multiplied result, the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system, and obtaining the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
in the step, the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is obtained by matching the failure probability of each part of failure factors with the corresponding weight, adding and reusing the complexity coefficient and the management coefficient of the pipe network, and the following formula can be adopted specifically:
wherein P is the overall failure probability; n is the index number of failure factors; w is the influence weight of failure factors on the overall probability; w f、wd、we is the weight of the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the weight of the failure probability of the third party failure and the weight of the failure probability of the PE pipe respectively; p f、Pd and P e are respectively the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the third party damage and the failure probability of the PE pipe; f w is the complexity coefficient of the pipe network; f M is a management coefficient.
S3: and determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
It should be noted that, according to the obtained overall failure probability and according to a predetermined failure probability level dividing table, the risk level of the evaluation pipeline is determined, and the risk level is compared longitudinally, and by analyzing the risk level result, the conditions of corrosion, third party damage and the like are perfected in a targeted manner, the management direction of the enterprise gas pipe network is determined, and the overall management level is improved, and the risk level determination can be performed by using the following table 1, but is not limited to.
Table 1 risk classification table
As can be seen from the above description, in the embodiment of the risk evaluation method for a medium-low pressure gas pipeline provided by the present invention, the method includes acquiring the corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, the third party failure probability, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; then multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party failure by the weights corresponding to the corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe and the third party failure probability, adding the multiplied result, the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system, and obtaining the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline; and then, according to the total failure probability, the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline is determined, and the scheme comprehensively considers a plurality of special indexes of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors is reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network is improved, the subjective influence is reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline is more conveniently guided.
In a specific embodiment of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the step of obtaining the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline may include the following sub-steps:
Acquiring the basic failure frequency and the corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
And multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Specifically, the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe can be corrected by using the special corrosion correction coefficient (F E) of the steel pipe by taking the data of the basic failure frequency (F G) as the basis, and the corrosion failure probability of the adjusted steel pipe is calculated, wherein the total formula is as follows:
Pf＝FG×FE
Wherein F G is the basic failure frequency, and F E is the corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe.
Wherein the basic failure frequency is compiled using in-industry equipment failure history, literature sources, and business reliability databases, these common values represent the general situation of the industry, rather than the actual failure frequency under a specific failure mechanism, and the basic failure frequency is selected in part as shown in table 2 below:
Table 2 recommended pipeline average failure probability value table
And selecting corresponding F G according to the pipeline diameter and the leakage hole size, if various pipelines are arranged in the evaluation unit, adding failure frequencies of the corresponding leakage hole sizes of the various pipelines to the final F G, for example, the evaluation area is provided with DN100mm and DN150mm pipelines, and the leakage is small-hole leakage, and F G＝1.3×10-6.
Wherein, the obtaining the corrosion correction coefficient may include the following sub-steps:
Obtaining thinning factors, anticorrosive coating factors, environmental impact factors and historical leakage factors;
Adding the thinning factor, the anticorrosive coating factor, the environmental impact factor and the historical leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
Using the following formula
The corrosion correction coefficient F E is calculated.
It should be noted that the step of calculating the thinning factor T is as follows:
(1) Calculating a thinning severity index X:
The average corrosion rate (g/dm 2. A) in the enterprise common corrosion test report was converted in units, steel density=7.85 g/cm 3, yielding 1g/dm 2. A=0.013 mm/a. The average corrosion rate (r), the current time (T), the production time (b) and the original wall thickness (T) are utilized to obtain a thinning severity index X, and the formula is as follows:
(2) The effectiveness level of each test activity performed over three years was determined according to table 3:
Table 3 test activity effectiveness level table
(3) The basic thinning secondary factor TMF is determined from the number of detections and the thinning degree index as shown in table 4:
TABLE 4 Foundation thinning sub-factor TMF Table
(4) Calculating a safety factor s
When (when)In the case of 1.0 to 1.5 (including 1.5), the safety factor s=1.0;
When (when) When the safety factor s=0.5 is greater than 1.5.
(5) Calculating thinning factor T
The TMF determined according to the step (3) is taken as a basic factor, and the calculation formula of T is as follows:
T＝TMF×s
The corrosion protection factor A is calculated as follows:
the anticorrosive coating factor mainly comprises 6 indexes of the type of the pipeline anticorrosive coating, the resistivity of the anticorrosive coating, the damage point of the anticorrosive coating, the resistivity of soil, the stray current intensity and the cathodic protection condition, the value taking mode is shown in a table 5, and the value of the anticorrosive coating factor can be obtained by carrying out correction coefficient value taking and summation on the indexes according to the actual state of the pipeline.
TABLE 5 anticorrosive coating factor value table
Corrosion-resistant layer factor value = 6 decision index assignments are summed.
The calculation of the environmental impact factor U may specifically be as follows:
The pipeline of the district is judged to be affected by the environment by judging whether the district has terrain subsidence, the number of times of weld opening and cracking in the current year, the current running environment, the winter temperature and the earthquake reaction area, and the specific values of factors are shown in the following table 6.
TABLE 6 environmental impact factor valuation table
Environmental impact factor value = 5 decision index valuations plus.
The calculation of the history leakage factor H may include the steps of:
the historical leakage factor corrects the failure probability based on the historical failure condition, see table 7:
TABLE 7 historical leakage factor value Table
Collecting the history leakage condition of the recent three years, and finally calculating a history leakage factor H:
For example: 5 leaks in the previous year, 9 leaks in the last year, 3 leaks in the present year,
In another specific embodiment of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the obtaining the third party damage failure probability may include the following sub-steps:
acquiring the basic failure probability of the pipeline and the third-party failure probability correction factor caused by the third-party damage;
And multiplying the pipeline basic failure probability caused by the third-party damage by a third-party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third-party damage failure probability.
The method comprises the following steps:
And obtaining the pipeline failure frequency caused by the third-party damage according to the statistical data, using the pipeline failure frequency as the basic failure probability R, correcting the basic failure probability R through a third-party failure probability correction factor F, and solving the third-party failure probability P d.
Pd＝R·F
Wherein: p d is the third party damage failure probability; r is the basic failure probability; f is a third party failure probability correction factor.
The basic failure probability R of the third-party damage can be calculated by the following formula
Wherein: n k is the accident number of the pipeline in the k year; l k is the length of the pipeline in the k year, km; alpha is the proportion of the third party damage; m is the number of years.
The calculation of the basic failure probability requires a large amount of historical failure data such as pipeline mileage, accident number, failure factors and the like. For the pipeline system to be evaluated, the historical failure data of the company to which the pipeline belongs is preferably obtained, and if the company lacks the historical failure data, the basic failure probability can be obtained through each large oil and gas pipeline failure database (such as PHMSA, NEB and EGIG) internationally. And calculating to obtain the basic failure probability of the third-party damage of the gas pipeline as 2.54x10 -5 according to the failure probability model and year-to-year statistics of PHMSA database.
The method also comprises the steps of establishing a correction factor index system, and calculating the damage failure probability of the third party of the pipeline according to the correction factors and corresponding formulas. The third-party damage is a first-level index, and the 9 factors are second-level indexes. The value of the primary correction factor index can be obtained according to the product of the value of the secondary correction factor index and the weight occupied by the secondary index. The following formula is shown:
Wherein F j is the value of the secondary correction factor index; m is the number of secondary indexes in the primary correction factor indexes; w j is the weight of the secondary correction factor index j in the primary correction factor index, refer to table 8.
Table 8 correction factor index System Table
Regarding the correction factor value, it should be noted that, in order to reduce subjectivity in the failure probability calculation process, the correction factor indexes are quantized as much as possible, and the correction factor indexes are classified into three categories in consideration of the difficulty level of each index acquisition and quantization: quantitative indexes, semi-quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes, wherein the first two indexes can be completely quantized or quantized and graded according to standard manual, and only the latter indexes depend on the experience judgment of experts. The third party destroys each correction factor value as shown in tables 9-11.
TABLE 9 quantitative index Table
TABLE 10 semi-quantitative index Table
Table 11 qualitative index table
For the semi-quantitative and qualitative correction factor indexes, the correction factor corresponding to the level "III" is regarded as the value of "1", the correction factors corresponding to the other four levels are the ratio of the blur probability corresponding to each level to the blur probability corresponding to the level "III", and the calculation results are shown in Table 12.
Table 12 blur correction factor table
| Correction factor grade | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅴ |
| Value of correction factor | 9.98×10-6 | 0.031 | 1.0 | 13.78 | 253.59 |
In still another specific embodiment of the medium-low pressure fuel pipeline risk assessment method, obtaining the PE pipe failure probability may include the following sub-steps:
acquiring the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
Adding corresponding assignments of the burial depth of the PE pipe, the deviation degree of construction wiring and routing design, the running time of the PE pipe and the sealing condition of the pipeline accessories to obtain a PE pipe influence factor value;
and multiplying the PE pipe basic failure frequency by the PE pipe influence factor value to obtain the PE pipe failure probability.
Specifically, the basic failure frequency can be determined as 6.49×10 -5, the reasons why the PE pipe fails mainly include the bending of the PE pipe and the quality of the PE pipe, and the risk condition of the PE pipe is determined by the bending degree of the PE pipe and the sealing condition of the pipeline accessories, referring to table 13.
Table 13 PE tube influence factor value table
PE pipe influence factor value = sum of 4 decision index assignments.
In a preferred embodiment of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method, the obtaining the pipe network complexity degree parameter may include the following specific steps:
and obtaining the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of the pressure regulating boxes or the pressure regulating stations, the production time, the protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or the pressure regulating stations, the branch pipes and the valve number.
Specifically, the complexity factor of the pipe network mainly considers the number of the district pipe network voltage regulating boxes (stations), the production time and the protective measures of the voltage regulating boxes (stations), the factors of the number of the branch pipes and the valves influence, and different factors have different complexity coefficients according to the importance:
a) Number of voltage regulating boxes (stations) (n 1): the complexity coefficient of each voltage regulating box (station) in the pipe network is 3.0, and assignment adjustment is carried out according to the protection and warning measures of the voltage regulating box (station), and reference is made to a table 14:
table 14 table of protective measures assignments
B) Valve number (n 2): the complexity factor of each valve is 4.0.
C) Branch number (n 3): any pipeline which is connected into the pipe section to be evaluated in a three-way mode is regarded as a branch pipe, and the complexity coefficient of each branch pipe is 2.0; the simplified calculation is carried out according to the number of the cell buildings and the average unit number of each building, and the formula is as follows:
branch number = unit number + number of buildings
For example, a cell has 10 buildings, each of which has 4 units, and the number of branch pipes and tee joints is 4×10+10=50. The low-voltage buses passing through the voltage regulating station are distributed on the residential arterial road, a branch pipe is generated through each building, a branch pipe is generated through each unit, and the complexity of the residential pipe network calculated by the formula is reasonable after the simplification. Wherein the number of n 1、n2 and n 3 may be 0.
The overall complexity coefficient formula for the pipeline is shown below:
n＝(n1×3.0×f)+(n2×4.0)+(n3×2.0)
Calculating a complexity coefficient c of each meter pipe section:
The overall complexity factor n divided by the overall pipe length L yields the complexity factor per meter pipe section as shown in table 15:
table 15 table of complexity coefficients for the network
| Complexity coefficient/m -1 | Pipe network complexity factor F W |
| c＜0.1 | -3.0 |
| 0.1＜c≤0.5 | -2.0 |
| 0.5＜c≤1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1.0＜c≤2.0 | 0 |
| 2.0＜c≤3.5 | 1.0 |
| 3.5＜c≤6.0 | 2.0 |
| 6.0＜c≤10.0 | 3.0 |
| c＞10.0 | 4.0 |
In another preferred embodiment of the medium-low pressure fuel gas pipeline risk assessment method, acquiring the management system related parameter may include:
And acquiring relevant parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
Further, according to the management score, the following formula is used
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
and adding the assignment corresponding to the leakage detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate by using the correction coefficient of the management system to obtain the related parameters of the management system.
Specifically, the correction coefficient of the management system increases two dynamic parameters according to the existing management method and annual report actual conditions of the enterprise, and the correction coefficient consists of three parameters of management score, leakage detection frequency and operation coverage rate, so that the overall accuracy of the management coefficient is improved.
(1) If the management system evaluation is already performed, the management system evaluation can be obtained by combining the management system evaluation with the existing management system evaluation of the company. The application of the formula to calculate can convert the management score into the management system correction coefficient, if the management system score is 50 points, the correction coefficient is corresponding to 1, the failure probability is not affected, if the system score is 100 points, the corresponding management system correction coefficient is 0.1, and the failure probability is reduced by one order of magnitude by the specific formula as follows:
Wherein: b represents the system score.
(2) The leak detection frequency assignment X and the running coverage assignment Y are index-classified based on the table, referring to table 16:
table 16 management parameter value table
The final management correction coefficient F M =n+x+y.
In another preferred embodiment of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method, the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage is obtained according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times due to the third party damage in the latest preset time;
Acquiring a weight corresponding to the failure probability of the PE pipe according to the ratio of the failure times of the PE pipe to the total failure times in the latest preset time;
And subtracting the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage and the weight corresponding to the failure probability of the PE pipe from 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe.
Specifically, the weight factors take the historical destruction times of the evaluation unit as the judgment basis, and the corresponding weights are determined according to the influence proportion of different factors on the overall. The ratio of the failure times of the cell caused by the third-party damage to the total failure times in the last three years is a w d value, and the ratio of the failure times of the PE pipe to the total failure times is a w e value; if the cell pipe network does not include a PE pipe, w e、Pe is 0.
wf＝1-we-wd
If no third party damage occurs in the last three years, but in fact the third party damage risk still exists, the value w d =0.1 is taken, if the cell contains a PE pipe and the last three years PE pipe does not cause a failure event, w e =0.1 is taken.
In summary, the data collection in the method can be obtained through a detection technical means or directly collected from an operation database, so that risk evaluation basic data support can be realized, semi-quantitative and quantitative combined evaluation of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is realized by comprehensively considering the risk factors of the gas pipe network, the evaluation accuracy is improved, the defects of strong subjectivity, large labor consumption and long time consumption of the conventional risk evaluation technology are overcome, and the digitization and the intellectualization of the risk evaluation of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network can be realized.
An embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device provided by the invention is shown in fig. 2, and fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device provided by the invention, where the device includes:
The obtaining component 201 is configured to obtain a steel pipe corrosion failure probability, a PE pipe failure probability, a third party failure probability, a pipe network complexity degree parameter, and a management system related parameter of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline, and it is to be noted that all data of the gas pipe network design, construction, and operation period can be collected and screening of parameters required for model evaluation can be performed, and the data of the full life cycle of the pipeline is related, and risk analysis and safety evaluation are mainly performed on the pipeline by using the operation data.
The medium-low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component 202 is configured to multiply the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability, and the third party failure probability with the weights corresponding to the respective components, and then add the multiplied result with the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter to obtain the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline.
The total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipe network is obtained by adding the corresponding weights to the failure probability of each part and correcting the complexity coefficient and the management coefficient of the reuse pipe network, and the following formula can be adopted specifically:
In the method, in the process of the invention,
P-probability of overall failure;
n-failure factor index number;
w—the impact weight of the failure factor on the overall probability;
w f、wd、we, the weight of the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the weight of the failure probability of the third party failure and the weight of the failure probability of the PE pipe;
P f、Pd、Pe -steel pipe corrosion failure probability, third party failure probability, PE pipe failure probability;
F w, pipe network complexity coefficient;
f M -management coefficients.
And the risk level determining part 203 is used for determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
The risk level of the evaluation pipeline is determined according to the obtained total failure probability and a preset failure probability level dividing table, and is longitudinally compared, and the current situations of corrosion, third party damage and the like are purposefully perfected through analyzing the risk level result, so that the management direction of the enterprise gas pipe network is determined, and the overall management level is improved.
Each of the above components may specifically include a plurality of units for calculation, which are in one-to-one correspondence with the steps mentioned in the above method embodiment, and are not described herein again.
In summary, the device considers a plurality of special indexes of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline, so that the accuracy of the overall evaluation result can be improved, the loss caused by various risk factors is reduced, the intelligent management level of a pipe network is improved, the subjective influence is reduced, and the daily operation management of the gas pipeline is more conveniently guided.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (8)
1. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring parameters of corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party failure probability, pipe network complexity degree and management system related parameters of the steel pipe of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
Multiplying the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe, the failure probability of the PE pipe and the failure probability of the third party damage by the weights corresponding to the PE pipe and the third party damage and adding the multiplied result, and multiplying the obtained result by the complexity degree parameter of the pipe network and the related parameter of the management system to obtain the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
Determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability;
the obtaining the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline comprises the following steps:
Acquiring the basic failure frequency and the corrosion correction coefficient of the steel pipe;
multiplying the basic failure frequency of the steel pipe by the corrosion correction coefficient to obtain the corrosion failure probability of the steel pipe;
The obtaining the corrosion correction coefficient includes:
Obtaining thinning factors, anticorrosive coating factors, environmental impact factors and historical leakage factors;
Adding the thinning factor, the corrosion protection layer factor, the environmental impact factor and the history leakage factor to obtain a calculation factor K;
Using the following formula
，
Calculating the corrosion correction coefficient F E;
wherein the step of calculating the thinning factor T comprises:
(1) Calculating a thinning severity index X, carrying out unit conversion on the average corrosion rate (g/dm 2.a) in an enterprise common corrosion detection report, obtaining 1g/dm 2.a=0.013 mm/a with the steel density=7.85 g/cm 3, and obtaining the thinning severity index X by using the average corrosion rate (r), the current time (T), the production time (b) and the original wall thickness (T), wherein the formula is as follows:
，
(2) The effectiveness level of each inspection activity performed over three years is determined according to the following table:
，
(3) Determining a basic thinning secondary factor TMF according to the detection times and the thinning degree index, wherein the TMF is shown in the following table:
，
(4) Calculating a safety coefficient s:
When (when) When the safety factor is 1.0-1.5 (including 1.5), the safety factor s=1.0;
When (when) When the safety factor is greater than 1.5, the safety factor s=0.5;
(5) Calculating thinning factor T
The TMF determined according to the step (3) is taken as a basic factor, and the calculation formula of T is as follows:
；
the step of calculating the corrosion protection factor comprises:
The anticorrosive coating factor comprises 6 indexes of the type of the pipeline anticorrosive coating, the resistivity of the anticorrosive coating, the damage point of the anticorrosive coating, the resistivity of soil, the stray current intensity and the cathodic protection condition, the value mode is shown in the following table, and the correction coefficient is taken and added according to the actual state of the pipeline to obtain the value of the anticorrosive coating factor:
，
，
the calculating step of the environmental impact factor U includes:
judging whether the district has terrain subsidence, the number of times of weld opening cracking in the current year, the current running environment, winter temperature and earthquake reaction area, and judging that the pipeline of the district is affected by the environment, wherein the specific values of the environment influence factors U are shown in the following table:
，
Environmental impact factor value = 5 decision index valuations added;
The calculation of the history leakage factor H comprises the following steps:
The historical leakage factor corrects the failure probability according to the historical failure condition, referring to the following table:
，
collecting the history leakage condition of the recent three years, and finally calculating a history leakage factor H:
。
2. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining the third party damage failure probability comprises:
acquiring the basic failure probability of the pipeline and the third-party failure probability correction factor caused by the third-party damage;
and multiplying the pipeline basic failure probability caused by the third party failure probability correction factor to obtain the third party failure probability.
3. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein,
The obtaining the failure probability of the PE pipe comprises the following steps:
acquiring the basic failure frequency of the PE pipe;
Adding corresponding assignments of the burial depth, the construction wiring and routing design deviation degree, the PE pipe running time and the pipeline accessory sealing condition of the PE pipe to obtain a PE pipe influence factor value;
And multiplying the PE pipe basic failure frequency by the PE pipe influence factor value to obtain the PE pipe failure probability.
4. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining the pipe network complexity degree parameter comprises:
and acquiring the complexity degree parameters of the pipe network according to the number of the pipe network pressure regulating boxes or stations, the production time, the protective measures of the pressure regulating boxes or stations, the branch pipes and the valve number.
5. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the acquiring management system related parameters comprises:
and acquiring the related parameters of the management system according to the management score, the leakage detection frequency and the operation coverage rate.
6. The medium-low pressure fuel gas pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 5, characterized in that according to the management score, the following formula is used
，
Calculating a correction coefficient of the management system;
adding the assignment corresponding to the leak detection frequency and the assignment corresponding to the operation coverage rate by using the correction coefficient of the management system to obtain the related parameters of the management system,
Wherein b represents the management system score, and N is the management system correction coefficient.
7. The medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein,
Acquiring a weight corresponding to the failure probability of the third party damage according to the ratio of the failure times to the total failure times caused by the third party damage in the latest preset time;
Acquiring a weight corresponding to the failure probability of the PE pipe according to the ratio of the failure times of the PE pipe to the total failure times in the latest preset time;
and subtracting the weight corresponding to the third party failure probability and the weight corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability from 1 to obtain the weight corresponding to the steel pipe corrosion failure probability.
8. A medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation device, characterized by using the medium-low pressure gas pipeline risk evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, comprising:
The acquisition component is used for acquiring the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, PE pipe failure probability, third party failure probability, pipe network complexity degree parameters and management system related parameters of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
The medium-low pressure gas pipeline total failure probability calculation component is used for multiplying the steel pipe corrosion failure probability, the PE pipe failure probability and the third party failure probability by the weights corresponding to the PE pipe failure probability and the third party failure probability, adding the multiplied result, the pipe network complexity degree parameter and the management system related parameter, and obtaining the total failure probability of the medium-low pressure gas pipeline;
and the risk level determining component is used for determining the risk level of the middle-low pressure gas pipeline according to the total failure probability.
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