CN101477206A - Geological calamity emergency monitoring, predicting and analyzing method - Google Patents

Geological calamity emergency monitoring, predicting and analyzing method Download PDF

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Publication number
CN101477206A
CN101477206A CNA2009100581954A CN200910058195A CN101477206A CN 101477206 A CN101477206 A CN 101477206A CN A2009100581954 A CNA2009100581954 A CN A2009100581954A CN 200910058195 A CN200910058195 A CN 200910058195A CN 101477206 A CN101477206 A CN 101477206A
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radar
geologic hazard
forecast
disaster
monitoring
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CNA2009100581954A
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CN101477206B (en
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赵宇
崔鹏
段晓康
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Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment IMHE of CAS
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Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment IMHE of CAS
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Abstract

The invention discloses a geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system and a method for analyzing the forecast of the system. Disposable radar responders move together with landslide or debris flow, flood and the like on ground surface by irregularly launching the disposal radar responders in a geologic hazard region which is formed or is forecasted to be formed. Through technology of radar scanning, running tracks of the radar responders can be monitored and compared intuitively and quickly; the place and the time formed by the hazard can be further analyzed and determined combining with status of topography and landform; and basic causes and important information, such as a territorial scope which is about to be affected by the hazard, forecasted imminent time slice and safe escape route, and the like, can be acquired assorted with rainfall, earthquake and other information. The system and the method have a standard product structure and low cost, and have incomparable advantages on the forecast of geologic hazard which has clear cause, certain predictability, large scale and short-terming burst under quick response.

Description

A kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of physical automatic control, particularly a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system and prediction analysis method thereof.
Background technology
China is one of country that disaster is the most serious in the world.Relevant studies show that, global warming will be comprehensive, multi-level to the influence of China's disaster risk distribution and pests occurrence rule: violent typhoon will be more active, and the heavy rain flood increases, and the possibility that river basin flood takes place strengthens; The geologic hazard of deriving of the extreme events such as mountain torrents, landslide, rubble flow and checked-up lake that cause of shake, local heavy showers also will increase doughtily.
Do not set up as yet at present at the early warning of secondary disaster, the technical system and the system of monitoring, artificial on-site land survey and key area reinforcing etc. are the current major technique means that secondary disaster threatens that reduce.These means can't can't be differentiated place, mode, mode of motion, forming process and damaging range that landslide, rubble flow, checked-up lake etc. produce effectively effectively to monitoring and the parameter analysis all sidedly of devastated formation on a large scale.
Also having a kind of situation is after the unfortunate generation of geologic hazard first, conventional disaster composite monitoring device is damaged, and in the recent period new secondary geologic hazard (the secondary disaster chain of deriving) also might occur the time, will be badly in need of taking more fast simple method, continue the secondary disaster of deriving is monitored.
In the face of changeable landform, landforms, the monitoring of geologic hazard and forecast work all will face a same difficult problem, how accurately to forecast time and the kind that disaster takes place by the simplest mode? how to accomplish few wrong report and fail to report? how to search out a loss that allows disaster cause fast and drop to minimum escape route? how can maximum area observation disaster zone and easy-to-install mode? how can effectively overcome thunderstorm weather, night in greasy weather, follow other natural emergency event to occur the interference that brings to the geologic hazard monitoring under the situation simultaneously simultaneously? how can be quick, does setting monitoring and prediction equipment effectively before disaster occurs also in time put into operation? have only new mode of continuous exploration and method could alleviate above-mentioned serial problem, seek one and get around complicated geological hazard prediction deduction mechanism, simple effective again, make the accurately and timely analytical approach of science judgment geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast at the unexpected incidents of some kind.
The method that this patent relates to can effectively be alleviated the various influences that an above-mentioned difficult problem is brought, outstanding advantage is a lower cost, simple fast, manufacture standardization, especially be suitable for the zone that disaster has taken place and also might occur new secondary geologic hazard in the recent period, it can not need dispatch personnel to enter the Installation and Debugging of disaster hazardous location.
Have the kind and the monitoring parameter of geologic hazard monitoring instrument at present both at home and abroad
Summary of the invention
The geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system that the purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of with low cost, fast qualitative.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this: a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system, comprise,
Round-the-clock continuous monitoring radar: adopt the radar scanning location, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, face of land mobile object trend in conjunction with local landform, place, time that the analysis and judgement disaster forms, cooperate other earthquake or rainfall amount information to draw basic cause, time period, safe escape route relevant information that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction disaster take place;
Radar responder: random even input is forming or predicting that its structure is in the geologic hazard zone of formation: radar is replied electronic circuit board and firmly is installed in the airtight thin walled shell, and surface of shell covers the sensitive coating coating; It shows an answering point on the radar scanning screen.
Another object of the present invention provides a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method that adopts above-mentioned forecast system, geologic hazard is made the emergency monitoring forecast.
Another object of the present invention is achieved in that a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of forecast system, by the direct deformation displacement of disaster body is monitored to be main, other parameter is auxilliary, avoid large and complete complex calculation reasoning as far as possible, the hazard prediction warning function is advanced to the scene or monitors by remote control center;
Forming or predicting the disposable radar responder of random even input in the geologic hazard zone of formation, it moves with landslide massif or rubble flow, flood etc. on the face of land, makes every effort to follow fully its motion in the design; By adopting radar scanning technic, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, place, time that further analysis and judgement disaster forms, in conjunction with landform, geomorphologic map, cooperate out of Memory to draw simultaneously, the time period that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction take place, the important information of safe escape route about the gene origin cause of formation;
The radar station antenna is arranged on comparatively safe open ground, and main radar equipment is placed in more safer place, and both are decided by on-the-spot practical situation at distance; After emergency also can directly adopt the inspection of aircraft high-altitude, to the report of control monitoring command centre; The existing radar signal trunking scheme of remote information transmission utilization is carried out.
The present invention mainly is made of two parts: a kind of disposable cheaply radar responder, cooperate round-the-clock continuous monitoring radar scanning, and in conjunction with the face of land mobile object trend discriminatory analysis software of local landform.
Forming or predicting the disposable radar responder of random even input in the geologic hazard zone of formation, it moves with landslide massif or rubble flow, flood etc. on the face of land, makes every effort to follow fully its motion in the design.By adopting radar scanning technic (similar aircraft radar aircraft location technology), fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, place, time that further analysis and judgement disaster forms, cooperate out of Memory (rainfall amount, earthquake etc.) to draw basic cause, important informations such as the time period that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction take place, safe escape route.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
No matter daytime or night, radar all can be surveyed remote target, and be not subjected to stopping of mist, Yun Heyu, has characteristics round-the-clock, round-the-clock, and certain penetration capacity is arranged.Also deserve to be called comparatively proven technique at present, a lot of application are arranged aspect maritime affairs.This method also can not need disposable radar responder is accurately located, and with its running orbit and relative accumulation intensity of variation perception analysis and judgement roughly just, is a kind of simple emergency measure only, and its monitoring mode is avoided complicated mechanism and inferred.Be specially adapted to " typhoon or heavy rain-flood-landslide, rubble flow " this extreme geologic hazard that scope is wide, the origin cause of formation degree of association will happen suddenly by force, in a short time that needs monitoring.
The geologic hazard monitoring mode, its standardized product structure, cheap cost, fast-response, clearer and more definite to the origin cause of formation, have certain foresight, on a large scale, the geological disaster forecasting of short-term burst has incomparable advantage.
Standard and widely used monitoring Radar Technology are comparatively ripe, and disposable radar responder is expendable consumed product production cheaply, stores easily.When running into sudden disaster, can assemble fast, come into operation at once, and do not need the project installation personnel of professional technique to go to the disaster area debugging.
The application places of geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method both can replace and remedied region, the time difference vacancy that stays mutually, also can use simultaneously wider, important informations such as time period that the territorial scope that will influence and prediction take place, safe escape route take place in the analysis and prediction geologic hazard more targetedly.Various disaster monitoring mode has been enriched the means of forecasting.
The potential user of equipment comprises: the interim settlement of large-scale engineering construction, emergency repair, post-disaster reconstruction, landslide highway, massif rubble flow, tourist attraction, water conservancy projects etc.; The popularity of its monitoring range and ubiquity will be expanded the more applications field, as the flood cascading water tracking in river etc.
Description of drawings
The emergent monitoring system radar responder is arranged display image before Fig. 1 geology calamity;
Fig. 2 disaster forms initial stage landforms and the radar responder variation image of arranging;
Fig. 3 geologic hazard emergency monitoring of the present invention prediction analysis method block diagram.
Embodiment
According to geologic hazard detection mode synoptic diagram (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 of the present invention, illustrate respectively disaster monitor area radar responder placement of images 2, and disaster form among initial stage radar effector deformation pattern 3 and all weather radar detector 1 figure top and illustrate for disaster monitors region landforms shape), monitoring mode of the present invention at first is to focus on " bodyguard sentry " type, promptly based on to the direct mobile monitoring of disaster body, other parameter is auxilliary, avoid large and complete complex calculation reasoning as far as possible, the hazard prediction warning function is advanced to the scene.
Geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system comprises,
Round-the-clock continuous monitoring radar: adopt the radar scanning location, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, face of land mobile object trend in conjunction with local landform, place, time that the analysis and judgement disaster forms, cooperate other ground or rainfall amount information to draw basic cause, relevant informations such as the time period that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction disaster take place, safe escape route;
Radar responder: random even input is forming or predicting that its structure is in the geologic hazard zone of formation: radar is replied electronic circuit board and firmly is installed in the airtight thin walled shell, and surface of shell covers the sensitive coating coating; It shows an answering point on the radar scanning screen.
Disposable radar responder is a kind of common material inflation thin walled shell, and the inner radar of firmly installing is replied electronic circuit board, is coated with the radar sensitive coating outward, shows an answering point on the radar scanning screen.Profile tentatively is envisioned for polygon egg shape or olive ball-type, and the surface hook with being with grabbing of some, and makes it have certain anti-pressure ability; Weight is light as far as possible, has certain layup, and the low-density feature allows it be easy to be exposed on the ground surface, also moves prior to moving body.What deserves to be mentioned is that making every effort to has special effect to the prediction of rubble flow owing to the design of its light shell come-up.
The input of disposable radar responder has dual mode: under high-risk geologic hazard zone and emergency condition, can take to sow operating type in the air; Also can directly take artificial mode of settling, careful arrangement is carried out in the emphasis monitored area.Radar responder surface is provided with grabs the rolling that the ground hook will effectively prevent to take place in its launch process long distance.
The radar station antenna is arranged on comparatively safe open ground, and main radar equipment is placed in more safer place, and both are decided by on-the-spot practical situation at distance; Emergency is collected the radar scanning image after also can directly adopting the inspection of aircraft high-altitude, to the report of control monitoring command centre.The radar station antenna can be taked the rotary work mode, enlarges monitoring range.
Round-the-clock continuous monitoring radar (Fig. 1 Fig. 2) adopts the frequency conversion working method, both can monitor the landform, the landforms 3-D view that store local disaster zone, the location drawing of dynamically arranging of also adjustable full employment frequency period scanning radar transponder.
Geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast analysis software is mainly finished three work.At first be the generation in advance of landform, geomorphologic map, and periodically update; Next is the automatic difference of dynamically arrange position and the state in early stage of the current radar responder of comparison, analyzes and generates mobile variable quantity record diagram, and calculate the difference in change branch and draw mobile rate of change figure, receives external information such as rainfall amount, earthquake information etc. simultaneously; At last in conjunction with landform, geomorphologic map, draw the basic disaster origin cause of formation, as heavy rain-flood-rubble flow, earthquake-landslide-massif avalanche etc., time period that the territorial scope that will influence and prediction take place, safe escape route or clear and definite important information such as Ti Chu @@ area take place in the analysis and prediction geologic hazard.
Geologic hazard policer operation place both can be arranged on by the radar machine station, also can utilize existing radar signal trunking scheme to be delivered to regional centralized policer operation station.
Geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of the present invention, by being main to the direct mobile monitoring of disaster body, other parameter is auxilliary, avoids large and complete complex calculation reasoning as far as possible, and the hazard prediction warning function is advanced to the scene;
Forming or predicting the disposable radar responder of random even input in the geologic hazard zone of formation, it moves with landslide massif or rubble flow, flood etc. on the face of land, makes every effort to follow fully its motion in the design; By adopting radar scanning technic, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, place, time that further analysis and judgement disaster forms, in conjunction with landform, geomorphologic map, cooperate out of Memory to draw simultaneously, the time period that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction take place, the important information of safe escape route about basic cause;
The radar station antenna is arranged on comparatively safe open ground, and main radar equipment is placed in more safer place, and both are decided by on-the-spot practical situation at distance; After emergency also can directly adopt the inspection of aircraft high-altitude, to the report of control monitoring command centre; The existing radar signal trunking scheme of remote information transmission utilization is carried out.
Geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of the present invention can software mode be embedded in relevant geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast analysis control system or the radar control surveillance equipment.

Claims (6)

1, a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring forecast system is characterized in that: comprises,
Round-the-clock continuous monitoring radar: adopt the radar scanning location, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, face of land mobile object trend in conjunction with local landform, place, time that the analysis and judgement disaster forms, cooperate other earthquake or rainfall amount information to draw basic cause, time period, safe escape route relevant information that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction disaster take place;
Radar responder: random even input is forming or predicting that its structure is in the geologic hazard zone of formation: radar is replied electronic circuit board and firmly is installed in the airtight thin walled shell, and surface of shell covers the sensitive coating coating; It shows an answering point on the radar scanning screen.
2, according to the described geologic hazard emergency monitoring of claim 1 forecast system, it is characterized in that: described thin walled shell is the inflation thin walled shell, and its profile is polygon egg type or rugby shape, and surperficial grabbing of some arranged hook.
3, a kind of geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method that adopts the described forecast system of claim 1, it is characterized in that: by being main the direct mobile monitoring of disaster body, other parameter is auxilliary, avoids large and complete complex calculation reasoning as far as possible, and the hazard prediction warning function is advanced to the scene;
Forming or predicting the disposable radar responder of random even input in the geologic hazard zone of formation, it moves with landslide massif or rubble flow, flood etc. on the face of land, makes every effort to follow fully its motion in the design; By adopting radar scanning technic, fast monitored directly perceived is the running orbit of radar responder relatively, place, time that further analysis and judgement disaster forms, in conjunction with landform, geomorphologic map, cooperate out of Memory to draw simultaneously, the time period that territorial scope that disaster will influence and prediction take place, the important information of safe escape route about the gene origin cause of formation;
The radar station antenna is arranged on comparatively safe open ground, and main radar equipment is placed in more safer place, and both are decided by on-the-spot practical situation at distance; After emergency also can directly adopt the inspection of aircraft high-altitude, to the report of control monitoring command centre; The existing radar signal trunking scheme of remote information transmission utilization is carried out.
4, according to the geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of the described forecast system of claim 3, it is characterized in that: described disposable radar responder is a kind of inflation thin walled shell, the inner radar of firmly installing is replied electronic circuit board, be coated with the radar sensitive coating outward, on the radar scanning screen, show an answering point.
5, according to the geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of the described forecast system of claim 4, it is characterized in that: the profile of described disposable radar responder is polygon egg shape or olive ball-type, and the surface hook with being with grabbing of some.
6, according to the geologic hazard emergency monitoring prediction analysis method of the described forecast system of claim 5, it is characterized in that: after described calculating radar responder moves the difference in change branch and obtains mobile rate of change figure, in conjunction with landform, geomorphologic map, further analyze and draw the evacuation route that ensures the security of the lives and property, or clearly prompting keeps away the calamity region.
CN2009100581954A 2009-01-20 2009-01-20 Geological calamity emergency monitoring, predicting and analyzing method Expired - Fee Related CN101477206B (en)

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CN102122423A (en) * 2011-01-18 2011-07-13 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心 Mud-rock flow monitoring, analyzing and early-warning device and mud-rock flow monitoring method
CN102306233A (en) * 2011-06-15 2012-01-04 浙江大学 River basin landslide space-time predicting method under rainfall effect
CN102906731A (en) * 2010-05-25 2013-01-30 索尼公司 Using computer video camera to detect earthquake
CN103017709A (en) * 2012-12-20 2013-04-03 青岛理工大学 Method for measuring geological landslide displacement by using rainfall
CN103093102A (en) * 2013-01-23 2013-05-08 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 Debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on seism and drought monitoring
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CN109507757A (en) * 2018-10-09 2019-03-22 北京航空航天大学 It is a kind of that detection method and system are tracked based on the novel typhoon for facing sky dirigible
CN110988866A (en) * 2019-11-22 2020-04-10 上海熹翼科技有限公司 Multi-parameter debris flow early warning device based on radar

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CN101692129B (en) * 2009-09-09 2014-06-18 杨人光 Environmental disaster monitoring and forecasting system
CN102906731A (en) * 2010-05-25 2013-01-30 索尼公司 Using computer video camera to detect earthquake
CN102122423A (en) * 2011-01-18 2011-07-13 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心 Mud-rock flow monitoring, analyzing and early-warning device and mud-rock flow monitoring method
CN102306233B (en) * 2011-06-15 2014-04-16 浙江大学 River basin landslide space-time predicting method under rainfall effect
CN102306233A (en) * 2011-06-15 2012-01-04 浙江大学 River basin landslide space-time predicting method under rainfall effect
CN103017709A (en) * 2012-12-20 2013-04-03 青岛理工大学 Method for measuring geological landslide displacement by using rainfall
CN103093102A (en) * 2013-01-23 2013-05-08 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 Debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on seism and drought monitoring
CN103093102B (en) * 2013-01-23 2015-12-02 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 Based on the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster of earthquake and draught monitor
CN106796749A (en) * 2015-04-06 2017-05-31 株式会社东芝 Disaster prevention system
US10287739B2 (en) 2015-04-06 2019-05-14 Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba Disaster prevention system
CN109507757A (en) * 2018-10-09 2019-03-22 北京航空航天大学 It is a kind of that detection method and system are tracked based on the novel typhoon for facing sky dirigible
CN109507757B (en) * 2018-10-09 2020-11-24 北京航空航天大学 Novel typhoon tracking detection method and system based on aircraft airship
CN110988866A (en) * 2019-11-22 2020-04-10 上海熹翼科技有限公司 Multi-parameter debris flow early warning device based on radar

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