CN103093102B - Based on the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster of earthquake and draught monitor - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, solve the mud-stone flow disaster early warning technology existed in prior art not mature enough, be unfavorable for the problem that people prevent and treat rubble flow.Be somebody's turn to do the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, comprise the following steps: collect rubble flow estimation range and the Historical Seismicity situation of this areas adjacent, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data; Determine the typical Debris Flow Evolution district belonging to rubble flow estimation range, draw the correlativity of Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid in conjunction with the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and the coupled relation analysis of seismic activity and arid; According to the seismic activity calculated and arid, the easy-suffering level of rubble flow is judged on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution.By such scheme, invention achieves the object of rubble flow being carried out to Accurate Prediction, there is very high practical value and promotional value.

Description

Based on the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster of earthquake and draught monitor

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of hazard prediction method, specifically, relate to a kind of early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor.

Background technology

As everyone knows, rubble flow refers at mountain area or other cheuch deep gullies, the area that landform is dangerously steep, because heavy rain severe snow or other disasteies landslide of causing carry the special mighty torrent of a large amount of silt and stone.Have sudden due to rubble flow and flow velocity is fast, flow is large, matter content is large, its destructive power comparatively by force, once generation, can cause irreparable damage to the people's lives and property.Therefore, people are in the urgent need to a kind of method can carrying out effectively prediction to rubble flow, and to realize the timely control to rubble flow, at present, the prophylactico-therapeutic measures of rubble flow comprises following two kinds:

Engineering measure: mainly prevent and treat rubble flow by building check dam, debris dam, drainage groove and stopping the entity project such as silt field, but, adopt expending of engineering measure control rubble flow large, long in time limit, be therefore unfavorable for promoting on a large scale and quote.

Non-engineering measure: it has the construction period short (mainly equipment installation), the advantage that expense is few, therefore, along with the development of science and technology, non-engineering measure control rubble flow is adopted to become one of the Main Means in debris flow field, it mainly comprises rubble flow early warning, start-up course early warning, motion process early warning and face calamity early warning, although, at present about the early warning of rubble flow start-up course, motion process early warning and to face the technology of calamity early warning more, but it is all not mature enough, and very lack about the technology of rubble flow early warning, therefore in the urgent need to the early warning technology of research and development based on Debris Flow Evolution mechanism, and then conscientiously strengthen according to early warning achievement the monitoring and warning predicting mud-stone flow disaster easy happen zone territory, thus guarantee cities and towns, the safety of Important Project and infrastructure.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, the technology mainly solving the mud-stone flow disaster early warning existed in prior art comparatively lacks, not mature enough, be unfavorable for the problem that people prevent and treat rubble flow.

To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is as follows:

Based on the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster of earthquake and draught monitor, comprise the following steps:

A () collects rubble flow estimation range and the Historical Seismicity situation of this areas adjacent, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data;

B () determines the typical Debris Flow Evolution district belonging to rubble flow estimation range, the coupled relation analysis in conjunction with the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and seismic activity and arid draws Debris Flow Evolution as shown in Table 1 and seismic activity and arid correlativity;

Table one

；

C () when analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution only seismic activity is relevant, then calculates seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution; When analysis show that Debris Flow Evolution is only relevant with arid, then calculate the impact of arid on Debris Flow Evolution; When analysis show that Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity are all relevant with arid, then calculate seismic activity and the impact of arid on Debris Flow Evolution simultaneously;

D () judges the easy-suffering level of rubble flow according to the seismic activity calculated and arid to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution.

Specifically, in described step (b), seismic activity draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

(c1) the Historical Seismicity situation comprising epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow Target area and near zone thereof is collected;

(c2) determine the distance D in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, if R >=D, judge that seismic activity is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If R < is D, judge that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range has nothing to do.

Further, in described step (c2), the Sensible radius R of earthquake is drawn by following formula: $R=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\&le;5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array}\right..$

Further, arid draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

Calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of rubble flow estimation range according to the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected, if SPI≤-0.5, judge that arid is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If SPI>-0.5, judge that arid has nothing to do with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

Wherein, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in described rubble flow estimation range draws by with under type:

(c3) suppose that the quantity of precipitation of certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, then the probability density function that its Γ distributes is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&beta;}}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\&beta;}},$ x>0； $\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)={\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x}\mathrm{dx},$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, γ is form parameter, and it is greater than zero, and the two is tried to achieve by following formula:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};$ $\widehat{\mathrm{\&beta;}}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}},$ Wherein, $A=1g\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}1g{x}_i,$ X in formula _ifor data of precipitation sample, for quantity of precipitation mean value;

(c4) set actual quantity of precipitation as x ₀, then stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence be: probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value is tried to achieve in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

(c41) as actual quantity of precipitation x ₀when being zero, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, wherein, m to be quantity of precipitation be zero sample number, n is total number of samples;

(c5) carry out normal standardized process to the probability density function of Γ distribution to draw: $P(x<x_0)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}{\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{e}^{-Z^2/2}\mathrm{dx},$ Carried out approximate solution to draw: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{((d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein, p is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀be the probability of occurrence of zero, as P>0.5, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; This Standardized Precipitation index S PI according to the Z value that above-mentioned value is tried to achieve.

Specifically, in step (d), the easy-suffering level of described rubble flow is judged by table two:

Table two

As preferably, in step (c2), the distance D in distance earthquake centre, described rubble flow estimation range by the topomap that is more than or equal to 1:200000 from precision directly measurement draw; In step (a), the time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected is greater than 50 years.

Compared with prior art, the present invention has following beneficial effect:

(1) the present invention is by carrying out determinacy performance prediction to the monitoring of seismic activity and arid to Debris Flow Evolution district disaster; achieve the performance prediction to mud-stone flow disaster easy-suffering level; so that people prevent and treat in time, Mountain Urban Area, Important Project and people life property safety can be protected better.

(2) the Debris Flow Evolution district disaster method for early prediction of the present invention's proposition is comparatively ripe, and it is comparatively accurate to predict the outcome, and solves the deficiency of existing Forecasting Methodology, can fully meet people's demand, there is outstanding substantive distinguishing features and marked improvement, be applicable to large-scale promotion application.

(3) the present invention possesses landform and the condition of raining of Debris Flow Evolution in view of China's major part mountain area, start with for no reason at all from control the loose of Debris Flow Evolution, find its Dominated Factors---earthquake and arid, by the statistical study affected disastrous rubble flow earthquake and arid, determine China's mountain seism and several Effect Mode of arid to disastrous rubble flow, establish a set of early stage dynamic prediction method of rubble flow based on earthquake and draught monitor with regional characteristic, meet people's demand.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is schematic flow sheet of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described, and embodiments of the present invention include but not limited to the following example.

Embodiment

Usual affect debris flow formation because have Tu Yuan, water source and landform.Research shows, when 1 hourly rainfall depth is greater than 9mm, 24 hourly rainfall depths are greater than 20mm, just have the possibility breaking out rubble flow, and such raininess are in China's mountain area ubiquity (removing Drought Mountain Area).The Dominated Factors that mountain area mudstone is formed is loose Tu Yuan, and the principal element affecting Tu Yuan is earthquake and arid, as Wenchuan earthquake produces about 5,000,000,000 m ³solid bulk materials, and vast arid and physical weathering of dieing form the root that a large amount of bulk materials becomes Debris Flow Evolution, so start with from earthquake and arid, found the mud-stone flow disaster method for early prediction based on earthquake and arid, there is theoretical foundation, and the domestic blank based on the loose early prediction had no chance can be filled up, promote the anti-war of non-engineering debris flow measure, promote the progress of the work of effectively taking precautions against natural calamities that non-engineering measure combines with engineering measure.

For the deficiency lacking rubble flow early prediction technology in prior art, the invention provides a kind of early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, the impact on rubble flow estimation range Debris Flow Evolution by the seismic activity of Deterministic Methods analysis of history and arid, suitable appraisal procedure is adopted to analyze the rubble flow easy-suffering level of rubble flow estimation range, so that people conscientiously strengthen rubble flow start-up course in territory, area where mud-rock flow is liable to occur, motion process and face calamity early warning working dynamics, cities and towns in territory, abundant guarantee area where mud-rock flow is liable to occur, the safety of Important Project and infrastructure.

As shown in Figure 1, be somebody's turn to do the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor, comprise the following steps: collect rubble flow estimation range and the Historical Seismicity situation of this areas adjacent, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data; Wherein, the time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected should be greater than 50 years.Wherein, history long sequence rainfall data can be collected by modes such as monthly, seasons.

Determine the typical Debris Flow Evolution district belonging to rubble flow estimation range, in conjunction with the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and the coupled relation analysis results of seismic activity and arid, analyze the seismic activity of rubble flow estimation range and arid situation to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, draw Debris Flow Evolution as shown in Table 1 and seismic activity and arid correlativity;

Table one

In above-mentioned table one, according to the coupled relation achievement in research of typical Debris Flow Evolution district Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid, the typical rubble flow region of early stage for Debris Flow Evolution district performance prediction can be divided into following three kinds of situations:

Situation one: Debris Flow Evolution only with Relations To Earthquakes closely (or closer); It judges in the following manner: collect the Historical Seismicity situation comprising epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow Target area and near zone thereof; Determine the distance D in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, if R >=D, judge that seismic activity is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If R < is D, judge that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range has nothing to do.

Wherein, the Sensible radius R of earthquake is drawn by following formula: $R=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\&le;5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array}\right.,$ Its unit is KM; The distance D in distance earthquake centre, rubble flow estimation range by the topomap that is more than or equal to 1:200000 from precision directly measurement draw, its unit is KM.According to the actual requirements, the precision of topomap can carry out corresponding raising.

Situation two: Debris Flow Evolution is (or closer) in close relations with arid only; It judges in the following manner: the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value calculating rubble flow estimation range according to the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected, if SPI≤-0.5, judges that arid is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If SPI>-0.5, judge that arid has nothing to do with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

Wherein, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in rubble flow estimation range draws by with under type:

Suppose that the quantity of precipitation of certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, then the probability density function that its Γ distributes is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&beta;}}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\&beta;}},$ x>0； $\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)={\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x}\mathrm{dx},$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, γ is form parameter, and it is greater than zero, and the two is tried to achieve by following formula:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};$ $\widehat{\mathrm{\&beta;}}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}},$ Wherein, $A=1g\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}1g{x}_i,$ X in formula _ifor data of precipitation sample, for quantity of precipitation mean value;

If actual quantity of precipitation is x ₀, then stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence be: probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value is tried to achieve in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

As actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence when being zero is drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, wherein, m to be quantity of precipitation be zero sample number, n is total number of samples;

Carry out normal standardized process to the probability density function of Γ distribution to draw: $P(x<x_0)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}{\&Integral;}_0^{\&infin;}{e}^{-Z^2/2}\mathrm{dx},$ Carried out approximate solution to draw: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{((d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein, p is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀be the probability of occurrence of zero, as P>0.5, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; This Standardized Precipitation index S PI according to the Z value that above-mentioned value is tried to achieve.

Situation three: Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid relation are all closely (or closer).It to combine done judgement for situation one and situation two, because decision procedure is identical, does not therefore do repeat specification at this.

Afterwards, the seismic activity accordingly calculated, situation two and situation three and arid can judge the easy-suffering level of rubble flow to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution.Its concrete decision method is as table two:

Table two

Because Debris Flow is rainy season, therefore by calculating the drought index SPI in spring, thus the easy-suffering level of rubble flow in rainy season can be judged in implementation process.Then according to seismic activity and spring arid on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season then, thus realize the object of the early stage performance prediction of mud-stone flow disaster.

Specifically, the present invention be based on utilization Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, then carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season then, thus realize rubble flow early stage performance prediction.

Based on such scheme, also carried out actual verification according to this Forecasting Methodology in the present invention, below in conjunction with three preferred cases, the invention will be further described:

Case study on implementation one

Using autonomous prefecture of Liangshan of Sichuan Province Yi nationality, distributed over Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou Ningnan County as rubble flow estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, utilization Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation are on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2012, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Ningnan County and neighbouring historical earthquake situation in recent years as follows: on May 12nd, 2008, Wenchuan County in Sichuan earthquake; Ningnan county magistrate's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up one known, Ningnan County Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid (or closer) all in close relations, therefore, need analyze seismic activity and the impact of arid on this region Debris Flow Evolution;

C.2008 year Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake centre in Wenchuan County, according to topomap measure, Ningnan County apart from epicentral distance be 434.3km from D, Wenchuan earthquake earthquake magnitude 8 grades, the Sensible radius R of earthquake is 837.5km;

D. Ningnan County is less than Wenchuan earthquake Sensible radius R far from the distance D in earthquake centre, and therefore Wenchuan earthquake causes estimation range easily to send out rubble flow;

E. according to the Ningnan County rainfall data month by month downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center, calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of estimation range spring in 2012, result of calculation is SPI=-0.94≤-0.5, and namely spring arid causes estimation range easily rubble flow to occur;

F. according to the analysis result of step C and step e, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season to estimation range, result shows that estimation range very easily rubble flow occurs.

Real example: rainy season in 2012, there is extensive mud-stone flow disaster in Ningnan County short person's ditch, causes very serious casualties and property loss.

Case study on implementation two

Using Linxiang county of Hunan Province as estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, utilization Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation are on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2011, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Linxiang county and neighbouring historical earthquake situation in recent years as follows: nearly 50 years, Linxiang county and near zone thereof had record earthquake; Linxiang county magistrate's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up one known, Linxiang county Debris Flow Evolution is only in close relations with arid, therefore only needs to analyze the impact of arid on Debris Flow Evolution;

C. according to the Linxiang county rainfall data month by month downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center, calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of estimation range spring in 2011, result of calculation is SPI=-1.1≤-0.5, and namely spring arid causes estimation range easily rubble flow to occur;

D. according to the analysis result of step C, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season to estimation range, result shows that estimation range easily rubble flow occurs.

Real example: rainy season in 2011, there is mud-stone flow disaster in Linxiang county of Hunan Province, causes comparatively serious casualties and property loss.

Case study on implementation three

Using Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan as estimation range, adopt rubble flow early warning method of the present invention, utilization Deterministic Methods analyses and prediction history records active situation and then spring arid situation are on the impact of Debris Flow Evolution, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment rainy season in 2012, for estimation range rubble flow early warning provides technical support, step is as follows:

A. Dujiang weir and neighbouring historical earthquake situation in recent years as follows: on May 12nd, 2008, Wenchuan County in Sichuan earthquake; Dujiang weir mayor's sequence rainfall data is downloaded from China Meteorological Administration's data sharing center;

B. table look-up 1 known, Dujiangyan City Debris Flow Evolution is only close with Relations To Earthquakes, therefore only needs to analyze seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution;

C.2008 year Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake centre in Wenchuan County, according to topomap measure, Dujiangyan City apart from epicentral distance be 43km from D, Wenchuan earthquake earthquake magnitude 8 grades, the Sensible radius R of earthquake is 837.5Km; Dujiangyan City is less than Wenchuan earthquake Sensible radius R far from the distance D in earthquake centre, and therefore Wenchuan earthquake causes estimation range easily to send out rubble flow;

D. according to the analysis result of step C, carry out rubble flow easy-suffering level assessment in rainy season to estimation range, result shows that estimation range easily rubble flow occurs.

Real example: rainy season in 2012, there is mud-stone flow disaster on a small scale Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan, causes comparatively serious property loss.

From above-mentioned case study on implementation; the present invention can carry out performance prediction to mud-stone flow disaster easy-suffering level; and this Forecasting Methodology is comparatively ripe; predict the outcome also comparatively accurate, prevent and treat in time by people can be convenient to the prediction of Debris Flow Evolution, Mountain Urban Area, Important Project and people life property safety can be protected better; solve the deficiency of existing Forecasting Methodology; can fully meet people's demand, there is outstanding substantive distinguishing features and marked improvement, be applicable to large-scale promotion application.

According to above-described embodiment, just the present invention can be realized well.

Claims (4)

1., based on the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster of earthquake and draught monitor, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

A () collects rubble flow estimation range and the Historical Seismicity situation of this areas adjacent, long sequence rainfall data and topographic(al) data;

B () determines the typical Debris Flow Evolution district belonging to rubble flow estimation range, draw the correlativity of Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity and arid in conjunction with the Debris Flow Evolution in typical Debris Flow Evolution district and the coupled relation analysis of seismic activity and arid;

C () when analysis draws Debris Flow Evolution only seismic activity is relevant, then calculates seismic activity to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution; When analysis show that Debris Flow Evolution is only relevant with arid, then calculate the impact of arid on Debris Flow Evolution; When analysis show that Debris Flow Evolution and seismic activity are all relevant with arid, then calculate seismic activity and the impact of arid on Debris Flow Evolution simultaneously;

D () judges the easy-suffering level of rubble flow according to the seismic activity calculated and arid to the impact of Debris Flow Evolution;

Wherein, in described step (b), seismic activity draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

(b1) the Historical Seismicity situation comprising epicentral location and magnitude M in rubble flow Target area and near zone thereof is collected;

(b2) determine the distance D in rubble flow estimation range and earthquake centre and the Sensible radius R of earthquake, if R >=D, judge that seismic activity is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If R < is D, judge that the Debris Flow Evolution of seismic activity and rubble flow estimation range has nothing to do;

In described step (b2), the Sensible radius R of earthquake is drawn by following formula:

$R=\{\begin{array}{cc}{10}^{-2.803+0.974M}& M\&le;5\\ {10}^{0.6110+0.289M}& M>5\end{array};$

In described step (b), arid draws in the following manner with the whether relevant of Debris Flow Evolution:

Calculate the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value of rubble flow estimation range according to the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected, if SPI≤-0.5, judge that arid is relevant with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range; If SPI>-0.5, judge that arid has nothing to do with the Debris Flow Evolution of rubble flow estimation range.

2. the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the Standardized Precipitation index S PI value in described rubble flow estimation range draws by with under type:

(1) suppose that the quantity of precipitation of certain period in this rubble flow estimation range is stochastic variable x, then the probability density function that its Γ distributes is drawn by following formula:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&beta;}}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x/\mathrm{\&beta;}},$ x＞0； $\mathrm{\&Gamma;}\left(\mathrm{\&gamma;}\right)={\&Integral;}_0^{\mathrm{\&infin;}}{x}^{\mathrm{\&gamma;}-1}{e}^{-x}dx,$ Wherein, β is scale parameter, and it is greater than zero, γ is form parameter, and it is greater than zero, and the two is tried to achieve by following formula:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}}=\frac{1+\sqrt{1+4A/3}}{4A};\widehat{\mathrm{\&beta;}}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}/\widehat{\mathrm{\&gamma;}},$ Wherein, $A=\lg \stackrel{\&OverBar;}{x}-\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{lgx}}_i,$ X in formula _ifor data of precipitation sample, for quantity of precipitation mean value;

(2) set actual quantity of precipitation as x ₀, then stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence be: probability of occurrence approximate evaluation value is tried to achieve in conjunction with the probability density function values of having tried to achieve;

As actual quantity of precipitation x ₀when being zero, stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence drawn by following formula: P (x=0)=m/n, wherein, m to be quantity of precipitation be zero sample number, n is total number of samples;

(3) carry out normal standardized process to the probability density function of Γ distribution to draw: carried out approximate solution to draw: $Z=S\frac{t-(c_{2}t+c_1)t+c_0}{\left(\right(d_{3}t+d_2)t+d_1)t+1.0},$ Wherein, $t=\sqrt{\ln \frac{1}{P^2}},$ P is that stochastic variable x is less than actual quantity of precipitation x ₀probability of occurrence or actual quantity of precipitation x ₀be the probability of occurrence of zero, as P > 0.5, S=1; When P≤0.5, S=-1, and c ₀=2.515517; c ₁=0.802853; c ₂=0.010328; d ₁=1.432788; d ₂=0.189269; d ₃=0.001308; This Standardized Precipitation index S PI according to the Z value that above-mentioned value is tried to achieve.

3. the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, in step (b2), the distance D in distance earthquake centre, described rubble flow estimation range by the topomap that is more than or equal to 1:200000 from precision directly measurement draw.

4. the early stage dynamic prediction method of Debris Flow Evolution district disaster based on earthquake and draught monitor according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, in step (a), the time span of the long sequence rainfall data of the history collected is greater than 50 years.