CN107391833B - Strong earthquake mountain area debris flow easiness identification method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for judging the easiness of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area, which comprises the following steps of: 1) the method comprises the following steps of (1) spatial identification of debris flow activity, wherein the spatial identification comprises identification based on the area of a debris flow accumulation fan and identification based on debris flow accumulation characteristics; dividing the debris flow in the strong earthquake mountainous area into a harmful object and a non-harmful object; judging and identifying the harmful objects by adopting debris flow accumulation characteristics; judging the area of a debris flow stacking fan for a harmless object, wherein the judgment of the area of the debris flow stacking fan is to obtain a debris flow scale index according to the ratio of the debris flow stacking fan to the river basin area, and judge the easiness of debris flow through the debris flow scale index; 2) and (3) judging the time of the debris flow activity, wherein the time judgment is based on the judgment of the earthquake activity time, and the later period of the earthquake is associated with the easiness of debris flow. The invention obtains results based on data analysis of observation and statistics, and has scientificity, operability and reliable results.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of debris flow susceptibility research, in particular to a method for judging debris flow susceptibility in a strong earthquake mountain area.
Background
The easiness of the debris flow is the core problem of debris flow disaster assessment, and the easiness of the debris flow is determined at present mainly according to the occurrence history of the debris flow, particularly the recent occurrence history of the debris flow. However, most of the disastrous debris flows have the occurrence frequency of less than 50 years to 100 years, and according to the current debris flow susceptibility identification method, the recent real susceptibility of the debris flow cannot be accurately determined, the risk of the debris flow cannot be determined, and the susceptibility time and the susceptibility area of the debris flow cannot be determined. Therefore, the result obtained by the current debris flow susceptibility identification method is far from the actual result. Therefore, a new method for determining the debris flow susceptibility grade is needed at present according to the different characteristics of the composition and the structural characteristics of the series of piled substances in the piled area.
The reason why the easiness of the existing debris flow is difficult to determine is that the understanding of the temporal differentiation rule of regional erosion development and the transport proportion characteristics of the debris flow and torrential flood in different regions is lacking. Only by recognizing the space-time difference of the erosion process of the watershed, the real susceptibility of the debris flow can be determined within a certain time and space scale range.
The easiness of the debris flow can be divided into high, medium and low, but the easiness of the debris flow in different areas and different time periods is different, namely the easiness of the debris flow is dynamic within a certain space-time range. Therefore, when the hair is a high-susceptibility region, when the hair is a medium-susceptibility region, and when the hair is a low-susceptibility region become the concern. The method is characterized in that the grade of the easiness of the debris flow in the drainage basin is determined by adopting a measurable index to become the key of the technology, and the indexes comprise the area of a stacking fan in unit drainage basin area, the debris flow of the stacking fan and a torrential flood stacking series. How to adopt quantitative index to evaluate the easiness of debris flow is a technical problem to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention overcomes the defects of the prior art and provides the method for judging the easiness of debris flow in the strong earthquake mountainous area, which solves the technical problems.
In view of the above problems of the prior art, according to one aspect of the present disclosure, the following technical solutions are adopted in the present invention:
a method for judging the easiness of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area comprises the following steps of space judgment and time judgment of debris flow activities:
1) spatial identification of debris flow activity
The space identification comprises an identification based on the area of the debris flow accumulation fan and an identification based on the debris flow accumulation characteristic; firstly, dividing debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area into a harmful object and a harmless object; secondly, judging and identifying the harmful objects through debris flow accumulation characteristics; judging the area of a debris flow accumulation fan for a harmless object, wherein the judgment of the area of the debris flow accumulation fan is to obtain a debris flow scale index according to the ratio of the debris flow accumulation fan to the river basin area, and judge the easiness of debris flow through the debris flow scale index, and the expression is as follows:
wherein I is the debris flow scale index, SFan (Refresh Fan)-stacking sector area, km2；SDrainage basin-area of basin, km2(ii) a The larger the debris flow scale index is, the higher the susceptibility is; otherwise, the lower the susceptibility;
2) time identification of debris flow activity
The time identification is identification based on earthquake activity time, and associates a period after an earthquake with the easiness of debris flow.
In order to better realize the invention, the further technical scheme is as follows:
according to one embodiment of the invention, the debris flow accumulation characteristic identification method is adopted: judging the debris flow accumulation as high incidence debris flow, judging the alternate accumulation as medium incidence debris flow, and judging the flood as low incidence debris flow.
According to another embodiment of the invention, the debris flow scale index I is more than or equal to 3% of high incidence debris flow, the debris flow scale index I is more than or equal to 0.5% and less than 3% of medium incidence debris flow, and the debris flow scale index I is less than 0.5% of low incidence debris flow.
The invention can also be:
according to another embodiment of the invention, based on the identification of the earthquake activity time, the time after the earthquake of 2 years or less and less than 5 years is identified as the high-susceptibility debris flow, the time after the earthquake of 5 years or less and less than 26 years is identified as the medium-susceptibility debris flow, and the time after the earthquake of more than or equal to 26 years is identified as the low-susceptibility debris flow.
According to another embodiment of the invention, the time identification comprises: simulating the degradation process of the area after the strong earthquake by using a Gaussian equation, wherein the simulated Gaussian equation is controlled by an upper envelope line and a lower envelope line, the upper envelope line represents the peak value of the degradation, the lower envelope line represents the change of the value of the low valley of the degradation along with the time, the upper envelope line is the envelope line of the debris flow in the earthquake mountain area, the lower envelope line is the envelope line of the flood in the earthquake mountain area, the erosion modulus of the earthquake mountain area is calculated by conjecture according to the simulated Gaussian equation, and the easiness of the debris flow is judged according to the year corresponding to the size of the erosion modulus.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, the Gaussian equation is
Where Er is the erosion rate, Xc is the peak time year, X is the time year, A is the amplitude corresponding to the peak time year, and ω is the time width of 0.5 FWHM/sqrt (ln (4)) corresponding to one-half of the amplitude, and e represents a natural constant with a value approximately equal to 2.718281828.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, in the case where the erosion rate is calculated supposedly to be lower than the average erosion rate of the area before the earthquake, it is judged that the debris flow is low and apt for the corresponding year.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, the formula of the upper envelope is: y is1＝40/(X-B)-0.2，R20.73; wherein, Y1For erosion Rate, X is the time year, B is the first year after earthquake, R2Is the correlation coefficient.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, the formula for the lower envelope is: y is2＝2.98×1021×e(-0.024X)，R20.93; wherein, Y2For erosion Rate, X is the time year, R2E is a natural constant whose value is approximately 2.718281828。
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the judgment method for the easiness of the debris flow in the strong earthquake mountainous area, the judgment of the easiness of the debris flow in the strong earthquake mountainous area is based on the difference of space and time, 2 coordinates of space and time are adopted, the semi-quantification of the easiness evaluation is realized, and the evaluation method has definite processes, mechanisms, indexes and operability; firstly, space assessment is carried out based on area statistics of historical deposits and judgment of deposit characteristics, and the method is scientific and operable; after strong earthquake, due to the increase of the sources, the debris flow can move in a certain period, and the result is obtained based on the data analysis of observation and statistics, so that the device has reliability.
Drawings
For a clearer explanation of the embodiments or technical solutions in the prior art of the present application, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only references to some embodiments in the present application, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a block diagram illustrating the judgment of the susceptibility of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountainous area according to an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a simulation of erosion wave-like process in the seismograph gantry area according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a graphical representation of a Gaussian equation in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to examples, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.
The development of the debris flow of the watershed has huge time and space difference, and the high-incidence section and the strong erosion section of the debris flow have a space-time coupling relationship. The event of debris flow in the hundred-year scale range can be obtained from interview data, the debris flow event exceeding one hundred years can be evaluated from the stacking series of the stacking fans, no debris flow stacking object is determined to be a torrent small watershed not provided with a debris flow gully, all debris flow is determined to be a high-frequency debris flow gully, the debris flow and the torrent stacking object are alternately distributed to be a paroxysmal torrent debris flow gully, and property judgment of the watershed can be carried out according to the characteristics of the stacking object. Exciting the debris flow is usually regional earthquake activity or extreme climate and human activity, determining the period of the latest dynamic event and the most probable dynamic event in the future according to the period research of the influence of exciting factors and the period characteristics of the influence of historical structures and earthquake and extreme climate events, and determining the level of the period of easy occurrence. The susceptibility of the debris flow zone can be assessed from the area of the stacking fan and the stacking platform per unit of basin area. And (4) integrating the space-time distribution rule of the easiness of the debris flow and determining the comprehensive grade of the easiness of the debris flow. As shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a block diagram illustrating judgment on the easiness of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the judgment on the easiness of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area is mainly divided into a spatial judgment and a temporal judgment. The space identification is mainly divided into two types, and the identification of the harmless object by adopting the area ratio of the stacking fan to the drainage basin is adopted; and judging the characteristic of the deposit by adopting the dangerous object. The time judgment is mainly based on the judgment of earthquake activity time, and the easiness of debris flow in a certain period after the earthquake is different, specifically:
1) spatial determination of debris flow activity
The debris flow accumulation fan is an accumulation body which is influenced by the gradient of the terrain and is stable after debris flow slurry is separated from a channel, the energy of the slurry is suddenly reduced, and the accumulation body is stopped moving, accumulated and stable, the size of the area reflects the scale, the frequency and the movement characteristics of the debris flow to a certain extent, therefore, a writer provides a debris flow scale index (I), and the expression is as follows:
wherein I is the debris flow scale index, SFan (Refresh Fan)-stacking sector area, km2；SDrainage basin-area of basin, km2。
Generally, the larger the scale index of the debris flow is, the stronger the erosion and transportation effects of the basin are, so the greater the easiness of the debris flow is, and the larger the total transportation amount of the debris flow accounts for the total amount of the torrential flood. According to the statistical results (shown in table 1) of 8 river basins of the Qi sea basin and the debris flow fans from the Jinshajiang white crane beach to the small river mouth, the frequency of the debris flow is more than 20 years and 1 time of the medium frequency debris flow basin such as the official dam, I is more than 3%, the area of the debris flow fan for 50-100 years of the debris flow is usually 0.5-3% of the basin, and the basin with the accumulation fan area less than 0.5% of the basin area is mostly a mountain torrent ditch. According to the characteristics of debris flow accumulation, debris flow accumulation fans or flood accumulation fans can be judged, or debris flow and mountain torrent accumulation are staggered, wherein the debris flow accumulation fans or flood accumulation fans are high-frequency debris flow, the flood accumulation fans are flood, and medium-low frequency debris flow is arranged between the debris flow accumulation fans or the flood accumulation fans. The macroscopic evaluation for objects without clear harm can be performed based on the area ratio of the drainage basin, and for drainage basins with clear harm objects such as harmful residents or engineering construction, the judgment of the deposit characteristics needs to be performed based on the macroscopic evaluation.
TABLE 1 debris flow channel survey statistical table
According to the data statistics of the debris flow generated in the debris flow gully in the last century, I is 3 percent of high-incidence debris flow, 0.5 percent < I <3 percent is medium-incidence debris flow, and I <0.5 percent is low-incidence debris flow
2) Time determination of debris flow activity
The time identification is identification based on earthquake activity time, and associates a period after an earthquake with the easiness of debris flow. The time identification comprises the following steps: simulating the degradation process of the area after the strong earthquake by using a Gaussian equation, wherein the simulated Gaussian equation is controlled by an upper envelope line and a lower envelope line, the upper envelope line represents the peak value of the degradation, the lower envelope line represents the change of the value of the low valley of the degradation along with the time, the upper envelope line is the envelope line of the debris flow in the earthquake mountain area, the lower envelope line is the envelope line of the flood in the earthquake mountain area, the erosion modulus of the earthquake mountain area is calculated by conjecture according to the simulated Gaussian equation, and the easiness of the debris flow is judged according to the year corresponding to the size of the erosion modulus.
With reference to FIG. 2, the Gaussian equation is
Where Er is the erosion rate, Xc is the peak time year, X is the time year, A is the amplitude corresponding to the peak time year, and ω is the time width of 0.5 FWHM/sqrt (ln (4)) corresponding to one-half of the amplitude, and e is a natural constant with a value approximately equal to 2.718281828. And under the condition that the calculated erosion rate is lower than the average erosion rate of the area before the earthquake, judging that the debris flow of the corresponding year is low and easy to occur. The formula for the upper envelope is: y is1＝40/(X-B)-0.2，R20.73; wherein, Y1For erosion Rate, X is the time year, B is the first year after earthquake, R2Is the correlation coefficient. The formula for the lower envelope is: y is2＝2.98×1021×e(-0.024X)，R20.93; wherein, Y2For erosion Rate, X is the time year, R2For the correlation coefficient, e is a natural constant whose value is approximately equal to 2.718281828.
And (3) denudation process:
the denudation process of the area after the strong earthquake is represented as a wavy oscillation attenuation process, the process can be simulated by a Gaussian equation, the equation is controlled by 2 envelope lines, as shown in FIG. 2, the upper envelope line represents the peak value of denudation and is a hyperbolic descending process with the size being larger firstly and smaller later, and the lower envelope line represents the change of the value of the low valley of denudation along with the time and is exponentially descending. In 2007-2010, a strong increase in the denudation rate of the area occurred, increasing the denudation rate from 0.3mm/a to 18.4mm/a and then to 45.9 mm/a. Later 2011 drops back to 2.8mm/a,2012 1.70mm/a,2013 slightly increases to 6.0mm/a, and 2014 drops back to 1.70 mm/a. The entire erosion process exhibits a decay process of the wave-like oscillation (fig. 2). The process is simulated by a Gaussian equation, and the fitting degree reaches 94 percent. The wave crest shows hyperbolic attenuation, the evolution process of the wave trough along with the time is linearly decreased, and the fitting degree is 73 percent. From the Wenchuan earthquake calculation in 2008, the erosion modulus in the area after 81 years is reduced to 0.3mm, and the state before earthquake is returned. The peak erosion rate in 2030 after 16 years of Wenchuan earthquake dropped to a level of 1.70mm/a in 2014 where the mud-rock flow did not develop, and it was estimated that no massive mud-rock flow occurred thereafter. The fluctuation process of the erosion shows that the maximum erosion rate of the area is 45.9mm/a, and the value shows that after the large-scale debris flow is developed after the earthquake, the formed erosion rate can reach 153 times of the pre-earthquake average erosion rate of 0.3 mm/year. The region recovered to an average erosion rate of 0.3mm/a after 81 years as estimated by the abscissa of the intersection of the upper and lower envelopes.
The method for establishing the denudation process model of the Chengdu Longmen mountain area is further explained as follows:
based on 2007 + 2014 (except 2008) year, Longchi-Baisha river 188.5km in strong earthquake area2The annual denudation rate of a zone was taken as the denudation rate in the region in 2007 as the average denudation rate before the 0.3mm (literature) zone became epicenter. The degradation rate ranges of 1.583 + -0.792 mm/a and 0.465 + -0.233 mm/a of Nakagawa basin in 1920 and 1970 of Guandong earthquake in Japan were taken as the degradation rate limit ranges in 37 and 47 years of the same type of earthquake mountainous area. The erosion rates in 2007-2014 (except 2008) and 2045 and 2055 are shown in table 2. And simulating the denudation process of the city gantry mountain area by adopting a Gaussian equation, and finally, simulating the erosion process to obtain a main part figure 3.
TABLE 22007 + 2051 Corrosion Rate
According to the change process of the corrosion rate of 2007-2014 (except 2008), and the frequency of heavy rainfall, the corrosion rate of 2015-2044 years is estimated, and the specific values are shown in Table 3.
Table 3 specific fit data
The simulation result shows that the dynamic denudation process of the wet gantry mountain area can be fitted by a Gaussian equation, and the specific expression is as follows:
as shown in FIG. 3, the physical meaning of each parameter, X, in the Gaussian equationcAt the peak time point, a is the amplitude (maximum erosion rate) corresponding to the peak time point, and ω is the time width 0.5 × FWHM/sqrt (ln (4)) corresponding to one-half of the amplitude.
The denudation rate equation value range is as follows:
x is between 2007 and 2011,
coefficient of correlation R2＝0.94
X is between 2012 and 2014,
……
the embodiments are described in a progressive manner in the specification, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
Reference throughout this specification to "one embodiment," "another embodiment," "an embodiment," etc., means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one embodiment described generally in this application. The appearances of the same phrase in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment. Further, when a particular feature, structure, or characteristic is described in connection with any embodiment, it is submitted that it is within the scope of the invention to effect such feature, structure, or characteristic in connection with other embodiments.
Although the invention has been described herein with reference to a number of illustrative embodiments thereof, it should be understood that numerous other modifications and embodiments can be devised by those skilled in the art that will fall within the spirit and scope of the principles of this disclosure. More specifically, various variations and modifications are possible in the component parts and/or arrangements of the subject combination arrangement within the scope of the disclosure and claims of this application. In addition to variations and modifications in the component parts and/or arrangements, other uses will also be apparent to those skilled in the art.
Claims (8)
1. A method for judging the easiness of debris flow in a strong earthquake mountain area is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
1) spatial identification of debris flow activity
The space identification comprises an identification based on the area of the debris flow accumulation fan and an identification based on the debris flow accumulation characteristic; firstly, dividing the strong earthquake mountain debris flow into a harmful object and a harmless object according to whether the harmful residents exist or a watershed with definite harmful objects in engineering construction; secondly, judging and identifying the harmful object through the debris flow accumulation characteristic, wherein the judging and identifying method of the debris flow accumulation characteristic comprises the following steps: judging debris flow accumulation as high-incidence debris flow, judging alternate accumulation as medium-incidence debris flow, and judging flood accumulation as low-incidence debris flow; judging the area of a debris flow accumulation fan for a harmless object, wherein the judgment of the area of the debris flow accumulation fan is to obtain a debris flow scale index according to the ratio of the debris flow accumulation fan to the river basin area, and judge the easiness of debris flow through the debris flow scale index, and the expression is as follows:
wherein I is the debris flow scale index, SFan (Refresh Fan)-stacking sector area, km2；SDrainage basin-area of basin, km2(ii) a The larger the debris flow scale index is, the higher the susceptibility is; otherwise, the lower the susceptibility;
2) time identification of debris flow activity
The time identification is identification based on earthquake activity time, and associates a period after an earthquake with the easiness of debris flow.
2. The method for judging the easiness of occurrence of the debris flow in the strong earthquake mountainous area as claimed in claim 1, wherein the debris flow scale index I is more than or equal to 3% and is high-easiness of occurrence of the debris flow, the debris flow scale index I is more than or equal to 0.5% and is less than 3% and is medium-easiness of occurrence of the debris flow, and the debris flow scale index I is less than 0.5% and is low-easiness of occurrence of the debris flow.
3. The method for judging the easiness of occurrence of the debris flow in the strongly-shocked mountainous area according to claim 1, wherein the time after 2 years or more and less than 5 years after the earthquake is judged as the high-easiness debris flow, the time after 5 years or more and less than 26 years after the earthquake is judged as the medium-easiness debris flow, and the time after the earthquake is judged as the low-easiness debris flow, based on the judgment of the earthquake activity time.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the time judgment comprises: simulating the degradation process of the area after the strong earthquake by using a Gaussian equation, wherein the simulated Gaussian equation is controlled by an upper envelope line and a lower envelope line, the upper envelope line represents the peak value of the degradation, the lower envelope line represents the change of the value of the low valley of the degradation along with the time, the upper envelope line is the envelope line of the debris flow in the earthquake mountain area, the lower envelope line is the envelope line of the flood in the earthquake mountain area, the erosion modulus of the earthquake mountain area is calculated by conjecture according to the simulated Gaussian equation, and the easiness of the debris flow is judged according to the year corresponding to the size of the erosion modulus.
5. The method for judging the susceptibility of debris flow in the strongly-shocked mountainous area according to claim 4, wherein the Gaussian equation is
Wherein Er is an erosion rate, Xc is a peak time year, X is a time year, A is an amplitude corresponding to the peak time year, omega is a time width corresponding to one-half of the amplitude, 0.5 × FWHM/sqrt (ln (4)), and e is a natural constant.
6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the debris flow tendency of the corresponding year is determined when the calculated erosion rate is lower than the average erosion rate of the area before the earthquake.
7. The method for judging the easiness of debris flow occurrence in the strong earthquake mountainous area according to claim 4, wherein the formula of the upper envelope line is as follows: y is1＝40/(X-B)-0.2，R20.73; wherein, Y1For erosion Rate, X is the time year, B is the first year after earthquake, R2Is the correlation coefficient.
8. The method for judging the easiness of debris flow occurrence in the strong earthquake mountainous area according to claim 4, wherein the formula of a lower envelope curve is as follows: y is2＝2.98×1021×e(-0.024X)，R20.93; wherein, Y2For erosion Rate, X is the time year, R2Is a correlation coefficient, e is a natural constant.
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| CN109472445B (en) * | 2018-09-29 | 2022-04-26 | 成都理工大学 | Risk judgment method for ice water debris flow and application thereof |
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