CN103412113A - Judging method for sensibility of post-earthquake debris flow gully and application thereof - Google Patents
Judging method for sensibility of post-earthquake debris flow gully and application thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a judging method for the sensibility of a post-earthquake debris flow gully and application of the judging method. The method comprises the following steps: determining a possibility comprehensive judging value P of all slumped masses in a researching region under any grading condition of six evaluation factors; integrating previous grading conditions according to the size of the value P to obtain a special sensibility grading region of the six evaluation factors and establishing a corresponding scoring standard; then, acquiring score values of the gully on the six evaluation factors in reference to the scoring standard and according to the distribution condition of the single gully on the six evaluation factors; and finally, determining an evaluation factor weight with combination of a grey correlation method and establishing a single gully debris flow sensibility judging model to carry out debris flow prediction. Compared with the prior art, the judging method sufficiently considers region characteristics of the researching region of the single gully, avoids the error of a manually divided sensibility grading region of the evaluation factors of single gully debris flow, and can be used for performing specific-grade division on the evaluation factors rapidly and accurately so as to realize the effective judgment on the sensibility of the single gully debris flow.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after a kind of shake of Based on Probability, and after shake the prediction of area to debris flow occurrence susceptibility intensity.
Background technology
After " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake, " 4.14 " Yushu earthquake and " 4.20 " Lushan earthquake, a large amount of rubble flow break out in earthquake region.Owing to lacking at present the division methods of effectively single ditch being estimated factor susceptibility interval, make can not exact evaluation rubble flow susceptibility size, cause the rubble flow happened suddenly to cause a large amount of casualties and property loss.As 2010, Dujiang weir, Sichuan rubble flow caused the Long Chichang town to be inundated with flood; 2010, Zhouqu County, Gansu rubble flow caused 1744 people dead and missing; 2013, Shimian, Sichuan bear man gully mud-rock flow caused 28 people's injures and deaths.After earthquake, a large amount of rubble flow of western China are in the high liability stage, alleviate and prevent and treat mud-stone flow disaster to be badly in need of rubble flow susceptibility is effectively predicted.
The generation heavy losses that occur after earthquake and the rubble flow of casualties, often closely related at the probability of estimating on the factor with the slumped mass of the whole study area at its place itself.But existing rubble flow susceptibility method of discrimination, all less than in conjunction with whole study area slumped mass, determining evaluation factor rating interval at the probability of estimating on the factor, and just according to single ditch feature, classify to estimating the factor artificially, therefore can't effectively differentiate shaking rear debris flow gully susceptibility.
Summary of the invention
Purpose of the present invention is exactly for the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of method and application thereof of carrying out the susceptibility differentiation for debris flow gully after shake is provided, by the probability distribution of slumped mass on the evaluation factor in the analysis and research district, determine between the given zone of study area scope inner evaluation factor susceptibility height classification, thereby set up the susceptibility discrimination model of single-gully mud-rock flow, realize the effective prediction to the debris flow occurrence possibility.
For achieving the above object, technical scheme of the present invention is:
The present invention proposes the rear debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination of a kind of shake, by the probability of all slumped masses in whole study area on 6 evaluation factors, divide between the given zone of each susceptibility classification of estimating the factor, and then carry out the susceptibility differentiation of the single debris flow gully in study area.At first from all slumped mass regularities of distribution of study area, start with, fully, in conjunction with the landform, the hydrology and the large condition of geology three that cause debris flow formation, determine the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value of all slumped masses under any classification condition of topographic entity (comprising Elevation factor, slope factor, aspect factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor), geology key element (comprising the formation lithology factor) and hydrographic features (comprising the gully density factor); According to the size of Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value, script classification condition is arbitrarily reintegrated, obtain between the given zone of the susceptibility height classification under interior 6 the evaluation factors of whole study area, namely mark off the particular hierarchical interval that each estimates corresponding susceptibility height under the factor, so just avoided the people to define the susceptibility interval border of estimating the factor; According between the susceptibility classification given zone of determining, setting up in study area all rubble flow susceptibility standard of just giving a mark; Then by zone, turn to the single-gully mud-rock flow evaluation, by the distribution situation of wall scroll debris flow gully in study area in landform, the hydrology and geology three large key elements, obtain this ditch at 6 score values of estimating on the factor with reference to the marking standard; Finally in conjunction with grey correlation methods, determine the weight of estimating the factor, with 2 dimensionless factors, represent that single-gully mud-rock flow estimates score value on factor and the weighted value of the corresponding evaluation factor at each respectively, set up single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility discrimination model, carry out the prediction of rubble flow.
After described shake, the debris flow occurrence of debris flow gully is to be formed by seismic slumped mass starting, and physical features is obvious gully type rubble flow, and its susceptibility is differentiated the provincial characteristics that will take into full account the place study area.Particularly, after described shake, debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination step is as follows:
A. by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor of whole study area; By 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain the formation lithology factor of whole study area; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out respectively interval classification arbitrarily to 6 the evaluation factors (being aforementioned Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor, the gully density factor and the formation lithology factor) that obtain, obtain 6 different classification conditions of estimating the factors.
B. by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, obtain the total area of whole study area, translate all slumped mass areas in whole study area by the remote sensing image solution; For 6 that obtain in the steps A different classification conditions of estimating the factor, by the remote sensing image slumped mass areas that solution translates in whole study area respectively, 6 are estimated under the different classification conditions of the factor, and obtain respectively 6 study area areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor by 1:5 ten thousand topomap.
C. by following formula, calculate respectively 6 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor:
In formula, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value under the different classification conditions of the factor is estimated in P-6.
P
1-conditional probability, the ratio that represent in whole study area, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor accounts for this rank study area area; Whole study area is interior, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor, and 6 study area areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor are definite by step B.
P
2-prior probability, represent that the interior all slumped mass areas of whole study area account for the ratio of the whole study area total area; All slumped mass areas in whole study area, the total area of whole study area, determine by step B.
D. for 6 that obtain in the step C Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor, choose one by one wherein 1 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P estimated under the different classification conditions of the factor and carry out following a)-d) step, divide between the given zone of susceptibility height classification, and set up the marking standard:
A) determine the number between given zone, number between given zone is subtracted to 1, obtain the interval of number between given zone; Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification conditions is sorted by size; Number between described given zone is generally 4-6.
B) the classification condition that P value minimum value is corresponding is as minimum susceptibility interval, and the classification condition that P value maximal value is corresponding is as hypersensitivity interval.
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out to the difference computing, then, divided by the interval of number between given zone, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, according to increment value between graded region, determine successively the combination range between given zone, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and hypersensitivity interval all the other classification given zone between.That is: the quantity between described all the other classification given zone be between given zone number to deduct 2(be the interval and hypersensitivity interval of minimum susceptibility), from P value sub-minimum, increase successively increment value between graded region, until the P value is greater than P value second largest value, (quantity is that between given zone, number deducts 2 by between P value sub-minimum and P value second largest value, being divided into some sections, quantity between corresponding described all the other classification given zone), when the P value belonged to wherein certain section, its corresponding classification condition was the combination range between corresponding given zone.
D) from minimum susceptibility is interval, start, according to P value incremental order, between the given zone obtained, giving a mark, score value is ascending successively, sets up the marking standard of rubble flow on the susceptibility of the selected evaluation factor is just between the classification given zone.
Finally obtain between the susceptibility height classification given zone of 6 evaluation factors, and corresponding marking standard.
E. for debris flow gully after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation in study area, by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor of this debris flow gully, by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain the formation lithology factor of this debris flow gully.
F. according to the distribution situations of this ditch obtained in step e on 6 evaluation factors, just between the classification given zone, reach corresponding marking standard with reference to 6 that obtain in the step D susceptibility of estimating the factors, obtain this ditch at 6 score values of estimating on the factors.
G. according to the Grey Incidence fundamental formular, calculate 6 weighted values of estimating the factor.
H. by following formula, determine the susceptibility size of debris flow gully after the shake that pending susceptibility differentiates:
In formula, x
i(k) be that after the shake differentiated of pending susceptibility, debris flow gully, at 6 score values of estimating on the factors, is determined by step F; w
iBe 6 weighted values of estimating the factor, determined by step G; R is susceptibility size discriminant value; When R is less than or equal to 2.0, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is the hyposensitivity catchment basin of debris flow; When R is greater than 2.0, be less than simultaneously 2.6, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is middle susceptibility catchment basin of debris flow; When R is more than or equal to 2.6, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is the hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.
After described shake, debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination is applicable to the prediction to the debris flow gully susceptibility of shaking rear a large amount of rubble flow slumped mass appearance, by the distribution probability of regional slumped mass, estimate the classification of the factor, thereby obtain the susceptibility size that single-gully mud-rock flow breaks out; Rubble flow susceptibility is high, and namely the debris flow occurrence possibility is large; Rubble flow susceptibility is low, and namely the debris flow occurrence possibility is little.So just can quick and precisely differentiate the susceptibility size of rubble flow, for debris flow occurrence, carry out counter-measure in advance.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the provincial characteristics that has taken into full account single debris flow gully place study area, by large survey region, started with, by all slumped masses in study area, obtain respectively estimating between the susceptibility height classification given zone under the factor 6 probability distribution of estimating any classification on the factor, avoided the error between the evaluation factor susceptibility graded region of a single-gully mud-rock flow of artificial division, can to estimating the factor, carry out specific grade classification rapidly and accurately, thereby realize the effective differentiation to single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility, more after Accurate Prediction forecast shake, produce the possibility size of the rubble flow generation of a large amount of loose objects, and then can to the high rubble flow of susceptibility, launch to administer in time, meet the demand of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
Embodiment
Below the preferred embodiments of the present invention are further described.
Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan is located in " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake severely afflicated area, belongs to the rear debris flow of shake zone strongly.LongXi, study area Long Chi town river valley area is about 52.05km
2, this basin is subjected to " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake impact serious, at topographical surface, has produced the geologic hazard bodies such as landslide, many places, causes a large amount of bulk materials to be piled up in footslope and raceway groove, for the formation of rubble flow provides good thing source condition.On August 13rd, 2010,48 debris flow gully generation group rubble flow of LongXi river valley.Current mud-stone flow disaster makes Long Xihe cause certain obstruction and by the whole lifting 5m in riverbed, restoration and reconstruction after the calamity in the study area scope has been caused to adverse effect.After the shake of plan utilization Based on Probability of the present invention, debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination carries out the differentiation of susceptibility size to these 48 debris flow gullies.
The first step, utilize ARCGIS software, by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtains Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor in area, whole imperial pond; By 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain the formation lithology factor in area, whole imperial pond; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out respectively interval classification arbitrarily to 6 evaluation factors that obtain, obtain 6 different classification conditions of estimating the factors, 1 the 2nd row specifically see the following form.
Second step, the total area that obtains area, whole imperial pond by 1:5 ten thousand topomap is 52.05km
2, by the remote sensing image solution, translating all slumped mass areas in area, whole imperial pond is 7.65km
2.For obtain in steps A 6 the different classification conditions of estimating the factors, by remote sensing image respectively solution translate area, whole imperial pond, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor, concrete numerical value 1 the 3rd row that see the following form; And by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, obtain respectively 6 study area areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor, concrete numerical value 1 the 4th row that see the following form.
The 3rd step, pass through formula
Calculate respectively 6 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor, concrete numerical value 1 the 7th row that see the following form; P in calculating formula
1For area, whole imperial pond, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor, account for the ratio of this rank study area area, concrete numerical value 1 the 5th row that see the following form, namely in table 1, the value of every row the 5th row is that this row the 3rd train value is divided by the 4th train value; P in calculating formula
2For all slumped mass areas in area, whole imperial pond, account for the ratio of area, the whole imperial pond total area, i.e. 7.65/52.05=0.15, concrete numerical value 1 the 6th row that see the following form.
The all slumped masses in table 1 area, imperial pond are at 6 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant values of estimating any classification condition on the factor
The 4th step, for 6 that obtain in the 3rd step Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor, choose one by one wherein 1 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P estimated under the different classification conditions of the factor and carry out following a)-d) step, divide between the given zone of susceptibility height classification, and set up the marking standard:
A) determine that the number between given zone is 4, number between given zone is subtracted to 1, what obtain number between given zone is spaced apart 3.Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification conditions is sorted by size; The slope factor of take is example, and it is 0.47 (48 °～80 °), 0.34 (40 °～48 °), 0.14 (32 °～40 °) ,-0.31 (24 °～32 °) ,-0.6 (0 °～12 °) ,-0.6 (12 °～24 °) that the P value under 6 classification conditions of slope factor sorts by size.
B) the classification condition that P value minimum value is corresponding is as minimum susceptibility interval, and the classification condition that P value maximal value is corresponding is as hypersensitivity interval.The slope factor of take is example, the classification condition of P value minimum value-0.6 correspondence (0 °～12 °) and (12 °～24 °) are as minimum susceptibility interval, and the classification condition of P value maximal value 0.47 correspondence (48 °～80 °) is as hypersensitivity interval.
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out to the difference computing, then, divided by the interval of number between given zone, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, according to increment value between graded region, determine successively the combination range between given zone, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and hypersensitivity interval all the other classification given zone between.The slope factor of take is example, and P value second largest value 0.34 and P value sub-minimum-0.31 are carried out to the difference computing, then divided by the interval 3 of number between given zone, obtaining increment value between graded region is 0.22; From P value sub-minimum-0.31, increase successively increment value 0.22 between graded region, to between P value sub-minimum-0.31 and P value second largest value 0.34, be divided into 2 sections, i.e. (0.31～-0.09) and (0.09～0.34), when the P value belongs to wherein certain section, its corresponding classification condition is the combination range between corresponding given zone, namely obtain time combination range in hyposensitivity interval and be (24 °～32 °), the combination range in inferior hypersensitivity interval is (32 °～40 °), (40 °～48 °).
D) from minimum susceptibility is interval, start, according to P value incremental order, between the given zone obtained, giving a mark, score value is ascending successively, sets up the marking standard of rubble flow on the susceptibility of the selected evaluation factor is just between the classification given zone.The slope factor of take is example, minimum susceptibility interval (0 °～24 °) is 1 minute, inferior hyposensitivity interval (24 °～32 °) is 2 minutes, and inferior hypersensitivity interval (32 °～48 °) is 3 minutes, and hypersensitivity interval (48 °～80 °) is 4 minutes.In meaning between some evaluation factor rating given zone in 4 minutes, rubble flow very easily occurs, in meaning between some evaluation factor rating given zone in 3 minutes, rubble flow more easily occurs, in meaning in 2 minutes between some evaluation factor rating given zone, rubble flow may occur, be difficult for occurring rubble flow in meaning between some evaluation factor rating given zone in 1 minute.
Finally obtain between the susceptibility height classification given zone of 6 evaluation factors, and corresponding marking standard, concrete numerical value sees the following form 2.
Area, the imperial pond of table 2 rubble flow reaches corresponding marking standard between 6 susceptibility height classification given zone of estimating on the factor
The 5th step, for 48 debris flow gullies in area, imperial pond, by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain respectively Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor of 48 debris flow gullies, by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain respectively the formation lithology factor of 48 debris flow gullies.
The 6th step, according to the distribution situations of 48 ditches that obtain in the 5th step on 6 evaluation factors, with reference to 6 that obtain in the 4th step susceptibility of estimating the factor, just between the classification given zone, reach corresponding marking standard, obtain 48 ditches at 6 score values of estimating on the factors, concrete numerical value sees the following form 3.
| Numbering | The debris flow gully title | The gradient | Slope aspect | Elevation | Ditch bed longitudinal river slope | Formation lithology | Gully density |
| DF01 | King family's ditch | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF02 | The sharpening ditch | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF03 | Three refreshing public ditches | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF04 | Tea Ma Gudaogou | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| DF05 | Swallow nest ditch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| DF06 | State's ditch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF07 | The Aug. 1st ditch | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| DF08 | Coal Ping Gou | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF09 | The dustpan ditch | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| DF10 | Cao Jia ridge ditch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF11 | Chestnut Ping Gou | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| DF12 | Fiber crops Liu Gou | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF13 | The well groove | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| DF14 | Yellow centre ditch | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF15 | Water is beaten ditch | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF16 | Gingko hall ditch | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF17 | Fiber crops willow groove | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| DF18 | Water turtledove Ping Gou | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| DF19 | Jiang family's ditch | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| DF20 | Chen Jia slope ditch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF21 | Liao family's ditch | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| DF22 | Sand Ping Gou | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| DF23 | Li Quan is ditch too | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF24 | Water chestnut nest ditch | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| DF25 | Alkali Ping Gou | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF26 | Pawpaw garden ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| DF27 | The walnut ditch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| DF28 | The osmanthus fragrans ditch | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF29 | Horse man toft ditch | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF30 | No. 2 ditches of walnut | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF31 | No. 3 ditches of walnut | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| DF32 | Paper plant's ditch | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF33 | No. 1 ditch of hole, peak rock | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF34 | No. 2 ditches of hole, peak rock | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| DF35 | Grandson family's ditch | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| DF36 | Two adopted son's ditches | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| DF37 | Spring bud tree ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF38 | Steep big vast oral groove | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF39 | The cold soaking ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| DF40 | Large persimmon Ping Gou | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF41 | Lacquer tree Ping Gou | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF42 | The trough ditch | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF43 | White clint | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| DF44 | Lannigou | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF45 | Ringdove Gang1#Gou | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF46 | Ringdove Gang2#Gou | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| DF47 | Ringdove Gang Gou | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| DF48 | Long river Ba Gou | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
48, area, the imperial pond of table 3 debris flow gully is at 6 score values of estimating on the factor
The 7th step, according to the Grey Incidence fundamental formular, calculate 6 weighted values of estimating the factor, and concrete numerical value sees the following form 4.
| Estimate the factor for 6 | Weighted value |
| The gradient | 0.19 |
| Slope aspect | 0.24 |
| Elevation | 0.05 |
| Ditch bed longitudinal river slope | 0.10 |
| Formation lithology | 0.14 |
| Gully density | 0.29 |
Table 46 is estimated the weighted value of the factor
The 8th step, pass through formula
Determine respectively the susceptibility size of 48 debris flow gullies, concrete outcome sees the following form 5.X in calculating formula
i(k) for the score values of debris flow gully after shake on 6 evaluation factors, determined by the 6th step; w
iBe 6 weighted values of estimating the factor, determined by the 7th step; R is susceptibility size discriminant value.
48, area, the imperial pond of table 5 debris flow gully susceptibility height distribution table
According to the rubble flow susceptibility that above-mentioned method of discrimination obtains, Aug. 1st ditch susceptibility size discriminant value R is 3.26, is under the jurisdiction of in R >=2.6 scopes, is the hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.To differentiate result and actual conditions comparison, the Aug. 1st ditch is respectively on May 14th, 2008, May 19, July 17, on August 13rd, 2010, August 18 have broken out 5 especially big rubble flow and have caused the heavy losses of property, especially on August 13rd, 2010 the especially big rubble flow side's of the burying highway that becomes silted up, the Aug. 1st of destroying by rush of water ditch bridge damage farmland 6.67km
2, destroy whole 10 check dams of building.Therefore, differentiate in time the susceptibility size of debris flow gully, very important to the prevention state of debris flow disasters.
Claims (3)
1. debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after a shake, after described shake, the debris flow occurrence of debris flow gully is to be formed by seismic slumped mass starting, it is characterized in that: after described shake, the susceptibility of debris flow gully is differentiated the provincial characteristics that will consider the place study area, and concrete method of discrimination step is as follows:
A. by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor of whole study area; By 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain the formation lithology factor of whole study area; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out respectively interval classification arbitrarily to 6 evaluation factors that obtain, obtain 6 different classification conditions of estimating the factors;
B. by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, obtain the total area of whole study area, translate all slumped mass areas in whole study area by the remote sensing image solution; For 6 that obtain in the steps A different classification conditions of estimating the factor, by the remote sensing image slumped mass areas that solution translates in whole study area respectively, 6 are estimated under the different classification conditions of the factor, and obtain respectively 6 study area areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor by 1:5 ten thousand topomap;
C. by following formula, calculate respectively 6 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor:
In formula, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value under the different classification conditions of the factor is estimated in P-6;
P
1The ratio that-whole study area is interior, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor account for this rank study area area; Whole study area is interior, 6 slumped mass areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor, and 6 study area areas of estimating under the different classification conditions of the factor are definite by step B;
P
2In-whole study area, all slumped mass areas account for the ratio of the whole study area total area; All slumped mass areas in whole study area, the total area of whole study area, determine by step B;
D. for 6 that obtain in the step C Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P that estimate under the different classification conditions of the factor, choose one by one wherein 1 Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P estimated under the different classification conditions of the factor and carry out following a)-d) step, divide between the given zone of susceptibility height classification, and set up the marking standard:
A) determine the number between given zone, number between given zone is subtracted to 1, obtain the interval of number between given zone; Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification conditions is sorted by size;
B) the classification condition that P value minimum value is corresponding is as minimum susceptibility interval, and the classification condition that P value maximal value is corresponding is as hypersensitivity interval;
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out to the difference computing, then, divided by the interval of number between given zone, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, according to increment value between graded region, determine successively the combination range between given zone, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and hypersensitivity interval all the other classification given zone between;
D) from minimum susceptibility is interval, start, according to P value incremental order, between the given zone obtained, giving a mark, score value is ascending successively, sets up the marking standard of rubble flow on the susceptibility of the selected evaluation factor is just between the classification given zone;
Finally obtain between the susceptibility height classification given zone of 6 evaluation factors, and corresponding marking standard;
E. for debris flow gully after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation in study area, by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor of this debris flow gully, by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitizations, obtain the formation lithology factor of this debris flow gully;
F. according to the distribution situations of this ditch obtained in step e on 6 evaluation factors, just between the classification given zone, reach corresponding marking standard with reference to 6 that obtain in the step D susceptibility of estimating the factors, obtain this ditch at 6 score values of estimating on the factors;
G. according to the Grey Incidence fundamental formular, calculate 6 weighted values of estimating the factor;
H. by following formula, determine the susceptibility size of debris flow gully after the shake that pending susceptibility differentiates:
In formula, x
i(k) be that after the shake differentiated of pending susceptibility, debris flow gully, at 6 score values of estimating on the factors, is determined by step F; w
iBe 6 weighted values of estimating the factor, determined by step G; R is susceptibility size discriminant value; When R is less than or equal to 2.0, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is the hyposensitivity catchment basin of debris flow; When R is greater than 2.0, be less than simultaneously 2.6, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is middle susceptibility catchment basin of debris flow; When R is more than or equal to 2.6, after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is the hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.
2. debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after shaking according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the step D a) number between middle given zone is 4-6.
3. the application of the rear debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination of shake as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that: be applicable to shaking the prediction of rear debris flow gully susceptibility.
Priority Applications (1)
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| CN104021294A (en) * | 2014-06-11 | 2014-09-03 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Three-element evaluation method for detecting risks of debris flow |
| CN104036153A (en) * | 2014-07-02 | 2014-09-10 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Quantitative detection evaluation method for debris flow occurrence danger |
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| CN110008470A (en) * | 2019-03-19 | 2019-07-12 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | The sensibility stage division and device of report |
| CN110334482A (en) * | 2019-05-25 | 2019-10-15 | 成都理工大学 | Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after shake based on material resource activity intensity |
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| CN104036153A (en) * | 2014-07-02 | 2014-09-10 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Quantitative detection evaluation method for debris flow occurrence danger |
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| CN107391833B (en) * | 2017-07-17 | 2020-09-04 | 中国三峡建设管理有限公司 | Strong earthquake mountain area debris flow easiness identification method |
| CN107391833A (en) * | 2017-07-17 | 2017-11-24 | 中国三峡建设管理有限公司 | Macroseism mountain area mud-rock flow liability sentences knowledge method |
| CN109166280A (en) * | 2018-09-29 | 2019-01-08 | 成都理工大学 | A kind of EARLY RECOGNITION method and its application of meizoseismal area mud-rock flow |
| CN109447493A (en) * | 2018-11-07 | 2019-03-08 | 成都理工大学 | A kind of Debris Flow Hazard Assessment method after the shake based on material resource activity intensity |
| CN109447493B (en) * | 2018-11-07 | 2022-02-18 | 成都理工大学 | Post-earthquake debris flow risk evaluation method based on source activity intensity |
| CN109992635A (en) * | 2019-03-19 | 2019-07-09 | 成都理工大学 | A kind of mud-rock flow EARLY RECOGNITION method after shake |
| CN110008470A (en) * | 2019-03-19 | 2019-07-12 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | The sensibility stage division and device of report |
| CN109992635B (en) * | 2019-03-19 | 2022-08-12 | 成都理工大学 | Early recognition method for post-earthquake debris flow |
| CN110334482A (en) * | 2019-05-25 | 2019-10-15 | 成都理工大学 | Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after shake based on material resource activity intensity |
| CN110334482B (en) * | 2019-05-25 | 2022-09-13 | 成都理工大学 | Post-earthquake debris flow dynamic sensitivity evaluation method based on source activity intensity |
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