CN103412113B - Debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination and application thereof after a kind of shake - Google Patents
Debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination and application thereof after a kind of shake Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the rear debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination of a kind of shake and application thereof.The method first determines the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P of all slumped masses under any classification condition of 6 evaluation points in study area; According to P value size, the arbitrary classification condition of script is integrated, obtain the susceptibility of 6 evaluation points just between classification given zone, and set up corresponding scoring criterion; Then by the distribution situation of single ditch at 6 evaluation points, the score value of this ditch on 6 evaluation points is obtained with reference to scoring criterion; Finally in conjunction with Grey Incidence determination evaluation points weight, set up single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility discrimination model, carry out rubble flow prediction.Compared with prior art, the present invention has taken into full account the provincial characteristics of study area, Dan Gou place, avoid the error between the artificial evaluation points susceptibility graded region dividing single-gully mud-rock flow, specific grade classification can be carried out to evaluation points rapidly and accurately, thus realize the effective differentiation to single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of based on debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after the shake of probability, and after shake the prediction of area to debris flow occurrence susceptibility intensity.
Background technology
After " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake, " 4.14 " Yushu earthquake and " 4.20 " Lushan earthquake, a large amount of rubble flow breaks out in earthquake region.Owing to lacking the effective division methods to single ditch evaluation points susceptibility interval at present, making can not the size of exact evaluation rubble flow susceptibility, causes the rubble flow happened suddenly to cause a large amount of casualties and property loss.As 2010, Dujiang weir, Sichuan rubble flow caused Long Chichang town to be inundated with flood; 2010, Gansu Zhouqu County rubble flow caused 1744 people dead and missing; 2013, Shimian, Sichuan bear man gully mud-rock flow caused 28 people's injures and deaths.After earthquake, a large amount of rubble flow in western China is in the high liability stage, alleviates and prevent and treat mud-stone flow disaster to be badly in need of effectively predicting rubble flow susceptibility.
The generation heavy losses occurred after earthquake and the rubble flow of casualties, often closely related with the probability of slumped mass on evaluation points of the whole study area at its place itself.But existing rubble flow susceptibility method of discrimination, all do not determine between evaluation points graded region in conjunction with the whole study area probability of slumped mass on evaluation points, and just according to single ditch feature, evaluation points is classified artificially, therefore effectively cannot differentiate debris flow gully susceptibility after shake.
Summary of the invention
Object of the present invention is exactly for the deficiencies in the prior art, there is provided one to carry out susceptibility for debris flow gully after shake and sentence method for distinguishing and application thereof, by the probability distribution of slumped mass on evaluation points in analysis and research district, determine the interval of study area scope inner evaluation factor susceptibility height classification, thus set up the susceptibility discrimination model of single-gully mud-rock flow, realize the effective prediction to debris flow occurrence possibility.
For achieving the above object, technical scheme of the present invention is:
The present invention proposes the rear debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination of a kind of shake, by the probability of slumped masses all in whole study area on 6 evaluation points, divide the interval of the susceptibility classification of each evaluation points, and then the susceptibility of carrying out the single debris flow gully in study area differentiates.First from study area, all slumped mass regularities of distribution are started with, abundant combination causes the large condition of the landform of debris flow formation, the hydrology and geology three, determines the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value of all slumped masses under any classification condition of topographic entity (comprising Elevation factor, slope factor, aspect factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor), geologic elements (comprising the formation lithology factor) and hydrographic features (comprising the gully density factor); Size according to Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value is reintegrated the arbitrary classification condition of script, obtain the interval of the susceptibility height classification in whole study area under 6 evaluation points, namely under marking off each evaluation points, the particular hierarchical of corresponding susceptibility height is interval, and doing so avoids people is the susceptibility interval border defining evaluation points; According to setting up all rubble flow susceptibility height scoring criterion in study area between the susceptibility graded region determined; Then turn to single-gully mud-rock flow evaluation by region, by the distribution situation of wall scroll debris flow gully in study area in the large key element of landform, the hydrology and geology three, obtain the score value of this ditch on 6 evaluation points with reference to scoring criterion; Finally in conjunction with the weight of grey correlation methods determination evaluation points, the score value of single-gully mud-rock flow on each evaluation points and the weighted value of corresponding evaluation points is represented respectively with 2 dimensionless factors, set up single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility discrimination model, carry out the prediction of rubble flow.
After described shake, the debris flow occurrence of debris flow gully is started by seismic slumped mass to be formed, and physical features is obvious gully type rubble flow, and its susceptibility differentiates the provincial characteristics that will take into full account study area, place.Specifically, after described shake, debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination step is as follows:
A. the Elevation factor of whole study area, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor is obtained by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; The formation lithology factor of whole study area is obtained by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out arbitrary interval classification respectively to obtain 6 evaluation points (i.e. aforementioned Elevation factor, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor, the gully density Summing Factor formation lithology factor), obtain the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points.
B. obtained the total area of whole study area by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, go out all slumped mass areas in whole study area by remote sensing image interpretation; For the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points obtained in steps A, by remote sensing image respectively solution to translate in whole study area, slumped mass area under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, and obtain the study area area under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points respectively by 1:5 ten thousand topomap.
C. the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points is calculated respectively by following formula:
In formula, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value under the different classification condition of P-6 evaluation points.
P
1-conditional probability, the slumped mass area represented in whole study area, under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points accounts for the ratio of this rank study area area; Slumped mass area in whole study area, under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, the study area area under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, determines by step B.
P
2-prior probability, represents all slumped mass areas in whole study area and accounts for the ratio of the whole study area total area; All slumped mass areas in whole study area, the total area of whole study area, determines by step B.
D. for the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points obtained in step C, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P chosen one by one under the different classification condition of wherein 1 evaluation points carries out following a)-d) step, divide the interval of susceptibility height classification, and set up scoring criterion:
A) determine interval number, interval number is subtracted 1, obtains the interval of interval number; Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification condition is sorted by size; The number in described interval is generally 4-6.
B) classification condition corresponding for P value minimum value is interval as minimum susceptibility, classification condition corresponding for P value maximal value is interval as most hypersensitivity.
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out difference operation, then divided by the interval of interval number, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, determine interval combination range successively according to increment value between graded region, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and between all the other graded regions except most hypersensitivity interval.That is: the quantity between all the other graded regions described is that interval number deducts 2 (i.e. minimum susceptibility interval and most hypersensitivity is interval), from P value sub-minimum, increase increment value between graded region successively, until P value is greater than P value second largest value, by being divided into some sections between P value sub-minimum and P value second largest value, (quantity is that interval number deducts 2, quantity between all the other graded regions corresponding described), when P value belong to wherein certain section time, the classification condition of its correspondence be then the combination range in correspondence interval.
D) start from minimum susceptibility interval, according to P value incremental order, give a mark to the interval obtained successively, score value is ascending, set up the susceptibility of rubble flow at selected evaluation points just between graded region on scoring criterion.
Finally obtain the susceptibility of 6 evaluation points just between graded region, and corresponding scoring criterion.
E. for debris flow gully after the shake of susceptibility differentiation pending in study area, obtain the Elevation factor of this debris flow gully, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization, obtained the formation lithology factor of this debris flow gully by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization.
F. according to the distribution situation of this ditch obtained in step e on 6 evaluation points, with reference to 6 evaluation points obtained in step D susceptibility height graded region between and corresponding scoring criterion, obtain the score value of this ditch on 6 evaluation points.
G. according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, the weighted value of 6 evaluation points is calculated.
H. the susceptibility size of debris flow gully after the shake that pending susceptibility differentiates is determined by following formula:
In formula, x
ithe score value of debris flow gully on 6 evaluation points after k shake that () differentiates for pending susceptibility, is determined by step F; w
ibe the weighted value of 6 evaluation points, determined by step G; R is susceptibility size discriminant value; When R is less than or equal to 2.0, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is hyposensitivity catchment basin of debris flow; Be less than 2.6 when R is greater than 2.0, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is middle susceptibility catchment basin of debris flow simultaneously; When R is more than or equal to 2.6, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.
After described shake, debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination is applicable to the prediction to the debris flow gully susceptibility that rubble flow slumped mass a large amount of after shake occurs, carried out the classification of evaluation points by the distribution probability of region slumped mass, thus obtain the susceptibility size that single-gully mud-rock flow breaks out; Rubble flow susceptibility is high, and namely debris flow occurrence possibility is large; Rubble flow susceptibility is low, and namely debris flow occurrence possibility is little.So just quick and precisely can differentiate the susceptibility size of rubble flow, in advance for debris flow occurrence carries out counter-measure.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the provincial characteristics having taken into full account study area, single debris flow gully place, started with by large survey region, obtained between the susceptibility height graded region under each evaluation points by the probability distribution of slumped masses all in study area any classification on 6 evaluation points, avoid the error between the artificial evaluation points susceptibility graded region dividing a single-gully mud-rock flow, specific grade classification can be carried out rapidly and accurately to evaluation points, thus the effective differentiation realized single-gully mud-rock flow susceptibility, more Accurate Prediction forecast the possibility size of the rubble flow generation of a large amount of bulk object after shaking, can be produced, and then rubble flow that can be high to susceptibility in time launches to administer, meet the demand of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
Embodiment
Below the preferred embodiments of the present invention are further described.
Hydroelectric Power Station in Sichuan Dujiangyan is located in " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake severely afflicated area, belongs to the strong region of debris flow after shake.LongXi, Long Chi town, study area river valley area is about 52.05km
2, this basin is serious by the impact of " 5.12 " Wenchuan earthquake, and create the geological hazard body such as landslide, many places at topographical surface, cause a large amount of bulk materials to be piled up in footslope and raceway groove, the formation for rubble flow provides good thing source condition.On August 13rd, 2010, LongXi river valley 48 debris flow gully generation group rubble flow.Current mud-stone flow disaster makes Long Xihe cause certain blocking and by overall for riverbed lifting 5m, causes adverse effect to restoration and reconstruction after the calamity within the scope of study area.Intend using the differentiation based on debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after the shake of probability, these 48 debris flow gullies being carried out to susceptibility size of the present invention.
The first step, utilizes ARCGIS software, obtains the Elevation factor in area, whole imperial pond, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; The formation lithology factor in area, whole imperial pond is obtained by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out arbitrary interval classification respectively to obtain 6 evaluation points, obtain the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points, specifically see the following form 1 the 2nd row.
Second step, the total area being obtained area, whole imperial pond by 1:5 ten thousand topomap is 52.05km
2, going out all slumped mass areas in area, whole imperial pond by remote sensing image interpretation is 7.65km
2.For the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points obtained in steps A, by remote sensing image respectively solution translate the slumped mass area under area, whole imperial pond, 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, concrete numerical value sees the following form 1 the 3rd row; And obtaining the study area area under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points respectively by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, concrete numerical value sees the following form 1 the 4th row.
3rd step, passes through formula
Calculate the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points respectively, concrete numerical value sees the following form 1 the 7th row; P in calculating formula
1for the slumped mass area under area, whole imperial pond, 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points accounts for the ratio of this rank study area area, concrete numerical value sees the following form 1 the 5th row, and the value that namely in table 1, often row the 5th arranges is that this row the 3rd train value is divided by the 4th train value; P in calculating formula
2for all slumped mass areas in area, whole imperial pond account for the ratio of area, the whole imperial pond total area, i.e. 7.65/52.05=0.15, concrete numerical value sees the following form 1 the 6th row.
The Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value of the table 1 imperial pond all slumped masses in area any classification condition on 6 evaluation points
4th step, for the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points obtained in the 3rd step, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P chosen one by one under the different classification condition of wherein 1 evaluation points carries out following a)-d) step, divide the interval of susceptibility height classification, and set up scoring criterion:
A) determine that interval number is 4, interval number is subtracted 1, and what obtain interval number is spaced apart 3.Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification condition is sorted by size; For slope factor, it is 0.47 (48 ° ~ 80 °), 0.34 (40 ° ~ 48 °), 0.14 (32 ° ~ 40 °) ,-0.31 (24 ° ~ 32 °) ,-0.6 (0 ° ~ 12 °) ,-0.6 (12 ° ~ 24 °) that the P value under slope factor 6 classification conditions sorts by size.
B) classification condition corresponding for P value minimum value is interval as minimum susceptibility, classification condition corresponding for P value maximal value is interval as most hypersensitivity.For slope factor, the classification condition (0 ° ~ 12 °) of P value minimum value-0.6 correspondence and (12 ° ~ 24 °) are interval as minimum susceptibility, and the classification condition (48 ° ~ 80 °) of P value maximal value 0.47 correspondence is as most hypersensitivity interval.
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out difference operation, then divided by the interval of interval number, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, determine interval combination range successively according to increment value between graded region, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and between all the other graded regions except most hypersensitivity interval.For slope factor, P value second largest value 0.34 and P value sub-minimum-0.31 are carried out difference operation, then divided by the interval 3 of interval number, obtaining increment value between graded region is 0.22; From P value sub-minimum-0.31, increase increment value 0.22 between graded region successively, 2 sections are divided into by between P value sub-minimum-0.31 and P value second largest value 0.34, i.e. (-0.31 ~-0.09) and (-0.09 ~ 0.34), when P value belong to wherein certain section time, the classification condition of its correspondence is then corresponding interval combination range, namely obtain the combination range in time hyposensitivity interval for (24 ° ~ 32 °), the combination range in secondary hypersensitivity interval is (32 ° ~ 40 °), (40 ° ~ 48 °).
D) start from minimum susceptibility interval, according to P value incremental order, give a mark to the interval obtained successively, score value is ascending, set up the susceptibility of rubble flow at selected evaluation points just between graded region on scoring criterion.For slope factor, minimum susceptibility interval (0 ° ~ 24 °) is 1 point, secondary hyposensitivity interval (24 ° ~ 32 °) is 2 points, and secondary hypersensitivity interval (32 ° ~ 48 °) are 3 points, and most hypersensitivity interval (48 ° ~ 80 °) is 4 points.Very easily rubble flow is there is in 4 points of some evaluation points graded regions of expression, more easily rubble flow is there is in 3 points of some evaluation points graded regions of expression, 2 points represent in some evaluation points graded regions and rubble flow may occur, and not easily rubble flow occur in 1 point of some evaluation points graded region of expression.
Finally obtain the susceptibility of 6 evaluation points just between graded region, and corresponding scoring criterion, concrete numerical value sees the following form 2.
Table 2 imperial pond area rubble flow on 6 evaluation points susceptibility height graded region between and corresponding scoring criterion
5th step, for 48 debris flow gullies in area, imperial pond, obtain the Elevation factor of 48 debris flow gullies, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor respectively by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization, obtained the formation lithology factor of 48 debris flow gullies by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization respectively.
6th step, according to the distribution situation of 48 articles of ditches on 6 evaluation points obtained in the 5th step, with reference to 6 evaluation points obtained in the 4th step susceptibility height graded region between and corresponding scoring criterion, obtain the score value of 48 ditches on 6 evaluation points, concrete numerical value sees the following form 3.
| Numbering | Debris flow gully title | The gradient | Slope aspect | Elevation | Ditch bed longitudinal river slope | Formation lithology | Gully density |
| DF01 | King family's ditch | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF02 | Sharpening ditch | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF03 | Three refreshing public ditches | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF04 | Tea-horse Ancient Road ditch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| DF05 | Swallow nest ditch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| DF06 | State's ditch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF07 | Aug. 1st ditch | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| DF08 | Coal Ping Gou | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF09 | Dustpan ditch | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| DF10 | Cao Jia ridge ditch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DF11 | Chestnut Ping Gou | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| DF12 | Fiber crops Liu Gou | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF13 | Well groove | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| DF14 | Yellow centre ditch | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF15 | Water beats ditch | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF16 | Gingko hall ditch | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF17 | Fiber crops willow groove | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| DF18 | Water turtledove Ping Gou | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| DF19 | Jiang family's ditch | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| DF20 | Chen Jia slope ditch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DF21 | Liao family's ditch | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| DF22 | Sand Ping Gou | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| DF23 | Li Quan is ditch too | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF24 | Water chestnut nest ditch | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| DF25 | Alkali Ping Gou | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF26 | Pawpaw garden ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| DF27 | Walnut ditch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| DF28 | Osmanthus fragrans ditch | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF29 | Horse man toft ditch | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF30 | Walnut No. 2 ditches | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF31 | Walnut No. 3 ditches | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| DF32 | Paper plant's ditch | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF33 | Hole, peak rock No. 1 ditch | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF34 | Hole, peak rock No. 2 ditches | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| DF35 | Grandson family's ditch | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| DF36 | Two adopted son's ditch | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| DF37 | Spring bud tree ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF38 | Steep big vast oral groove | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF39 | Cold soaking ditch | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| DF40 | Large persimmon Ping Gou | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF41 | Lacquer tree Ping Gou | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF42 | Trough ditch | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF43 | White clint | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| DF44 | Lannigou | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| DF45 | Ringdove Gang1#Gou | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| DF46 | Ringdove Gang2#Gou | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| DF47 | Ringdove Gang Gou | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| DF48 | Long river Ba Gou | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
The score value of table 3 imperial pond 48 debris flow gullies in area on 6 evaluation points
7th step, according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, calculate the weighted value of 6 evaluation points, concrete numerical value sees the following form 4.
| 6 evaluation points | Weighted value |
| The gradient | 0.19 |
| Slope aspect | 0.24 |
| Elevation | 0.05 |
| Ditch bed longitudinal river slope | 0.10 |
| Formation lithology | 0.14 |
| Gully density | 0.29 |
The weighted value of table 46 evaluation points
8th step, passes through formula
determine the susceptibility size of 48 debris flow gullies respectively, concrete outcome sees the following form 5.X in calculating formula
ik () is the score value of debris flow gully on 6 evaluation points after shake, determined by the 6th step; w
ibe the weighted value of 6 evaluation points, determined by the 7th step; R is susceptibility size discriminant value.
48, area, table 5 imperial pond debris flow gully susceptibility height distribution table
According to the rubble flow susceptibility that above-mentioned method of discrimination obtains, Aug. 1st ditch susceptibility size discriminant value R is 3.26, and being under the jurisdiction of in the scope of R >=2.6, is hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.Result and actual conditions comparison will be differentiated, Aug. 1st ditch is respectively on May 14th, 2008, May 19, July 17, on August 13rd, 2010, August 18 have broken out 5 especially big rubble flow and have caused the heavy losses of property, especially especially big rubble flow silt on August 13rd, 2010 side of burying highway, Aug. 1st of destroying by rush of water ditch bridge damage farmland 6.67km
2, destroy whole 10 check dams built.Therefore, differentiate the susceptibility size of debris flow gully in time, very important to prevention state of debris flow disasters.
Claims (3)
1. debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after a shake, after described shake, the debris flow occurrence of debris flow gully is started by seismic slumped mass to be formed, it is characterized in that: after described shake, the susceptibility of debris flow gully differentiates the provincial characteristics will considering study area, place, and concrete method of discrimination step is as follows:
A. the Elevation factor of whole study area, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor is obtained by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; The formation lithology factor of whole study area is obtained by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization; Utilize ARCGIS software to carry out arbitrary interval classification respectively to obtain 6 evaluation points, obtain the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points;
B. obtained the total area of whole study area by 1:5 ten thousand topomap, go out all slumped mass areas in whole study area by remote sensing image interpretation; For the different classification conditions of 6 evaluation points obtained in steps A, by remote sensing image respectively solution to translate in whole study area, slumped mass area under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, and obtain the study area area under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points respectively by 1:5 ten thousand topomap;
C. the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points is calculated respectively by following formula:
In formula, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value under the different classification condition of P-6 evaluation points;
P
1slumped mass area in-whole study area, under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points accounts for the ratio of this rank study area area; Slumped mass area in whole study area, under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, the study area area under 6 different classification conditions of evaluation points, determines by step B;
P
2in-whole study area, all slumped mass areas account for the ratio of the whole study area total area; All slumped mass areas in whole study area, the total area of whole study area, determines by step B;
D. for the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under the different classification condition of 6 evaluation points obtained in step C, the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P chosen one by one under the different classification condition of wherein 1 evaluation points carries out following a)-d) step, divide the interval of susceptibility height classification, and set up scoring criterion:
A) determine interval number, interval number is subtracted 1, obtains the interval of interval number; Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value P under different classification condition is sorted by size;
B) classification condition corresponding for P value minimum value is interval as minimum susceptibility, classification condition corresponding for P value maximal value is interval as most hypersensitivity;
C) P value second largest value and P value sub-minimum are carried out difference operation, then divided by the interval of interval number, obtain increment value between graded region; From P value sub-minimum, determine interval combination range successively according to increment value between graded region, obtain except minimum susceptibility is interval and between all the other graded regions except most hypersensitivity interval;
D) start from minimum susceptibility interval, according to P value incremental order, give a mark to the interval obtained successively, score value is ascending, set up the susceptibility of rubble flow at selected evaluation points just between graded region on scoring criterion;
Finally obtain the susceptibility of 6 evaluation points just between graded region, and corresponding scoring criterion;
E. for debris flow gully after the shake of susceptibility differentiation pending in study area, obtain the Elevation factor of this debris flow gully, the ditch bed longitudinal river slope factor, slope factor, aspect factor and the gully density factor by 1:5 ten thousand Topographical Digitization, obtained the formation lithology factor of this debris flow gully by 1:20 ten thousand Topographical Digitization;
F. according to the distribution situation of this ditch obtained in step e on 6 evaluation points, with reference to 6 evaluation points obtained in step D susceptibility height graded region between and corresponding scoring criterion, obtain the score value of this ditch on 6 evaluation points;
G. according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, the weighted value of 6 evaluation points is calculated;
H. the susceptibility size of debris flow gully after the shake that pending susceptibility differentiates is determined by following formula:
In formula, x
ithe score value of debris flow gully on 6 evaluation points after k shake that () differentiates for pending susceptibility, is determined by step F; w
ibe the weighted value of 6 evaluation points, determined by step G; R is susceptibility size discriminant value; When R is less than or equal to 2.0, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is hyposensitivity catchment basin of debris flow; Be less than 2.6 when R is greater than 2.0, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is middle susceptibility catchment basin of debris flow simultaneously; When R is more than or equal to 2.6, then after the shake of pending susceptibility differentiation, debris flow gully is hypersensitivity catchment basin of debris flow.
2. debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after shake according to claim 1, is characterized in that: step Da) in interval number be 4-6.
3. the application of debris flow gully susceptibility method of discrimination after shaking as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that: be applicable to the prediction to debris flow gully susceptibility after shake.
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| CN113505994A (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2021-10-15 | 京创智慧科技有限责任公司 | Data processing method, device, equipment and storage medium |
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