CN110334482A - Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after shake based on material resource activity intensity - Google Patents
Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after shake based on material resource activity intensity Download PDFInfo
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- CN110334482A CN110334482A CN201910794653.4A CN201910794653A CN110334482A CN 110334482 A CN110334482 A CN 110334482A CN 201910794653 A CN201910794653 A CN 201910794653A CN 110334482 A CN110334482 A CN 110334482A
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Abstract
The invention discloses mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation methods after a kind of shake based on material resource activity intensity to choose 8 evaluation points, including material resource activity change amount by the dynamic change of mud-rock flow slump material resource body in analysis and research area;Probability alternate analysis is done to evaluation points and former years debris flow event, obtains evaluation points normalization standard;It is reference columns, Calculation Estimation Factor Weight value using former years debris flow event using Grey Incidence;Later with the mud-rock flow sensibility of obtained evaluation model evaluation current year, classification realization is carried out to current year mud-rock flow sensibility, the dynamic of debris flow possibility is effectively predicted.The present invention has fully considered that evaluation unit is single debris flow gully, and considers influence of the annual mud-rock flow material resource variable quantity to its sensibility, can eliminate the weak drawback of previous Up-to-date state, realizes and is evaluated by the Dynamic flexibility of evaluation unit of debris flow gully in region.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to disaster prevention field of engineering technology, more particularly to after the shake based on material resource activity intensity
Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method.
Background technique
After each debris flow event, corresponding variation, and part debris flow gully occur for the material resource in debris flow gully
Establish prevention and cure project.And existing mud-rock flow sensibility method of discrimination is directed to an issue according to being differentiated, has ignored material resource change
Influence of the change amount to debris flow causes the Up-to-date state of existing mud-rock flow evaluation method not strong, cannot be to debris flow gully after shake
Sensibility carries out dynamic and effectively differentiates.
Such as Publication No. CN 103412113A, publication date is that the Chinese patent literature on November 27th, 2013 discloses one
Debris flow gully sensibility method of discrimination and its application after kind shake, content characteristic include: (1) analysis slumped mass regularity of distribution, really
Slumped mass is determined in the Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value of topographic(al) feature, geologic elements and hydrographic features;(2) big according to Probabilistic Synthesis discriminant value
It is small, evaluation points sensibility height section is divided, avoids artificially defining;(3) it according to demarcation interval, establishes mud-rock flow sensibility and beats
Minute mark is quasi-;(4) evaluation marking is carried out to single-gully mud-rock flow in region according to scoring criterion;(5) using Grey Incidence determine because
Sub- weight establishes single-gully mud-rock flow sensibility scoring model.
Above-mentioned patent represents the prior art, since objective condition limited at that time, does not move to mud-rock flow sensitivity assessment
State sensitivity assessment research, obtained result be only applicable at that time under conditions of debris flow event.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention proposes debris flow gully dynamic after a kind of shake based on more issue evidences is sensitive
Property evaluation method, by analysis and research area in mud-rock flow slump material resource body dynamic change, choose 8 evaluation points, including object
Source activity change amount;Probability alternate analysis is done to evaluation points and former years debris flow event, obtains evaluation points normalization
Standard;It is reference columns, Calculation Estimation Factor Weight value using former years debris flow event using Grey Incidence;It uses later
It is quick-fried to mud-rock flow to carry out classification realization to current year mud-rock flow sensibility for the mud-rock flow sensibility of obtained evaluation model evaluation current year
The dynamic of hair possibility is effectively predicted.
Technical scheme is as follows:
Mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after shake based on material resource activity intensity passes through mud-rock flow in analysis and research area
The dynamic change of slump material resource body, and existing evaluation points achievement is combined, determine the classification of research area's evaluation points sensibility section,
It establishes using mud-rock flow channel as the sensitivity assessment model of evaluation unit in region, realizes the dynamic to debris flow possibility
It is effectively predicted.
Further, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) channel length, main channel length, the tap drain road longitudinal river slope, basin face for entirely studying area are obtained by terrain data
Product, basin height difference;Mud-rock flow material resource surface area and 2 phase material resource surface area differences are obtained to 3 phase image interpretations using ARCGIS;It is logical
It crosses field investigation and gather material obtains research area's mud-rock flow channel Breakout events and control measure;
(2) according to 2 phase material resource difference in surface area Value Datas, two groups are splitted data into, be first group of data and second group of data,
Every group of data contain channel length, main channel length, tap drain road longitudinal river slope, drainage area, basin height difference, material resource surface area, material resource
8 surface area difference, control measure evaluation points;
According to the mud-rock flow channel Breakout events of first group of data, first group of data is carried out at step (3)-step (7)
Reason;
(3) branch mailbox is carried out to 8 obtained evaluation points by SPSS software, according to each evaluation points branch mailbox and mudstone
The alternate analysis for flowing Breakout events obtains the different grading conditions of each factor, and carries out generally with mud-rock flow channel Breakout events
Rate alternate analysis obtains the scoring criterion under different grading conditions;
(4) the mud-rock flow evaluation points classification obtained according to step (3) and scoring criterion, to debris flow gully in research area into
Row scoring obtains the score of each factor of each evaluation unit in research area;
(5) according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, selecting debris flow event is reference example, 8 evaluation points be than
Compared with column, the weighted value of 8 evaluation points is obtained;
(6) it is calculated by the following formula debris flow gully sensitivity value size:
In formula, XiFor the debris flow gully evaluation points score of needs assessment;WiFor the corresponding weighted value of evaluation points, by step
Suddenly (5) determine;Y is the sensitivity assessment value of the debris flow gully of needs assessment;
(7) the sensitivity assessment value of each evaluation unit obtained according to step (6), using SPSS to sensibility in research area
Evaluation of estimate and debris flow event carry out probability alternate analysis, obtain the threshold value of mud-rock flow sensibility rank.;
(8) by the scoring criterion and evaluation model that obtain to first group of data processing, mudstone is carried out to second group of data
Sensitivity assessment is flowed, current year debris flow gully sensibility is predicted according to the debris flow rule of upper one year, obtains next phase mud
A possibility that rock glacier is broken out is predicted, carries out precautionary measures in advance.
Compared with existing mud-rock flow sensitivity evaluation method, mud after the shake provided by the invention based on material resource activity intensity
Rock glacier Dynamic flexibility evaluation method predicts the debris flow possibility in the coming year by the debris flow event in former years, tool
There is Up-to-date state, dynamic evaluation can be carried out every year, eliminates the drawbacks of previous evaluation is only applicable to a period of time, and then meet and prevent and reduce natural disasters
Demand.
Specific embodiment
To example is chosen, the invention will be further described below.
Sichuan Province, the town He Longchi, the town Ying Xiu is " 512 " Wenchuan earthquake severely afflicated area, belongs to debris flow intense zone after shake
Domain.Research area, which is chosen to be, reflects elegant-imperial pond area, and research area's area is about 172 sq-kms, including 41 debris flow gullies, in
2009-2013 has outburst mud-rock flow every year.Now intend with the present invention is based on the dynamic mud-rock flow sensitivity assessments of material resource activity intensity
Method carries out sensibility differentiation to 41 bar ditch.
Step 1: handling ten thousand topographic map of 1:5 using ARCGIS software, and extract research area DEM, debris flow gully basin face
Product, tap drain longitudinal river slope, channel length;By information such as 2008.05 and 2009.02 remote sensing image interpretation mud-rock flow slump material resources,
Obtain main channel length, channel length, material resource surface area _ 2009, material resource surface area difference _ 08-09.
Step 2: evaluation points normalize.Using SPSS softwares, evaluation points will be obtained according to quartering and carry out branch mailbox,
And probability alternate analysis is carried out with evaluation unit Breakout events, evaluation points grouping and assignment table are obtained, is shown in Table 1.
The grouping of 1 evaluation points sensibility of table and corresponding assignment
Step 3: obtaining factor normalization standard according to second step, the factor is carried out to 41 debris flow gullies in research area and is returned
One changes, and obtains the normalization table of research area's evaluation unit, is specifically shown in Table 2.
Table 2 studies area's evaluation points and normalizes table
Step 4: obtaining the mud-rock flow channel of outburst in 2009 according to field investigation and data collection, it is shown in Table 4.
Step 5: according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, by drainage area (K ㎡), main channel length (m), the vertical ratio in tap drain road
Drop, material resource surface area difference _ 08-09 (㎡), basin height difference (m), channel length, material resource surface area _ 09 (㎡) and whether prevent and treat 8
Whether each evaluation points are arranged as the factor, will break out as reference columns, and calculate grey relational grade, obtain the power of 8 each evaluation points
Weight values such as table 3.
3 evaluation points weight table of table
Evaluation points | The degree of association | Weight |
Drainage area (K ㎡) | 0.78 | 0.12 |
Main channel length (m) | 0.78 | 0.12 |
Tap drain road longitudinal river slope | 0.75 | 0.12 |
Material resource surface area difference (㎡) | 0.83 | 0.13 |
Basin height difference (m) | 0.77 | 0.12 |
Channel length | 0.78 | 0.12 |
Material resource surface area _ 2011 (㎡) | 0.73 | 0.12 |
Control measure | 0.92 | 0.15 |
Step 6: passing through formulaThe sensibility size of Calculation Estimation unit, specific calculated result are shown in
Table 4.Wherein XiFor the score value that third step determines, WiThe weighted value determined for the 5th step;Y is the calculated value of sensibility size.
4 2009 years mud-rock flow channel sensitivity assessment results of table
Step 7: research area's debris flow gully sensitivity assessment results in 2009 and practical outburst debris flow gully in 2009 are done
Intersect statistical analysis, analysis the results are shown in Table 5.
5 mud-rock flow sensitivity assessment of table is the same as debris flow event statistics table
Whether break out sensitivity assessment _ 2009 | It is low | In | It is high | It amounts to |
It is no | 13 | 13 | 10 | 36 |
It is | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
It amounts to | 13 | 15 | 13 | 41 |
Step 8: repeating step 1,2011.04 months remote sensing images are interpreted, material resource surface area _ 2011, material resource surface are obtained
Product moment value _ 09-11.
Step 9: repeating step 2 to step 7, mud-rock flow sensitivity assessment table in 2011 is obtained, is shown in Table 6.
6 2011 years mud-rock flow channel sensitivity assessment results of table
Step 10: will research area's debris flow gully sensitivity assessment results in 2011 and practical outburst mud-rock flow trench culture in 2011
Intersect statistical analysis, analysis the results are shown in Table 7.
Table 7 intersects statistical analysis
Whether break out sensitivity assessment _ 2011 | It is low | In | It is high | It amounts to |
It is no | 13 | 13 | 7 | 33 |
It is | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
It amounts to | 13 | 15 | 13 | 41 |
Show: material resource activity intensity is introduced into the mud-rock flow sensitivity assessment factor by the present invention, and according to annual material resource
Variable quantity carries out dynamic evaluation to research area's mud-rock flow, and evaluation result passes through the mud-rock flow event actually broken out and verified, had
There is sensibility to judge accurate, the strong feature of Up-to-date state.
Claims (5)
1. mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after the shake based on material resource activity intensity, which is characterized in that pass through analysis and research
The dynamic change of mud-rock flow slump material resource body in area chooses 8 evaluation points, including material resource activity change amount;To evaluation points
Probability alternate analysis is done with former years debris flow event, obtains evaluation points normalization standard;Using Grey Incidence, utilize
Former years debris flow event is reference columns, Calculation Estimation Factor Weight value;Later with obtained evaluation model evaluation current year
Mud-rock flow sensibility carries out classification realization to current year mud-rock flow sensibility and the dynamic of debris flow possibility is effectively predicted.
2. mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after the shake according to claim 1 based on material resource activity intensity, special
Sign is, comprising the following steps:
(1) channel length, main channel length, the tap drain road longitudinal river slope, drainage area, stream for entirely studying area are obtained by terrain data
Domain height difference;Mud-rock flow material resource surface area and 2 phase material resource surface area differences are obtained to 3 phase image interpretations using ARCGIS;By existing
Field investigation and gather material obtain research area's mud-rock flow channel Breakout events and control measure;
(2) according to 2 phase material resource difference in surface area Value Datas, two groups are splitted data into, be first group of data and second group of data, every group
Data contain channel length, main channel length, tap drain road longitudinal river slope, drainage area, basin height difference, material resource surface area, material resource surface
8 product moment value, control measure evaluation points;
According to the mud-rock flow channel Breakout events data of first group of data, first group of data is carried out at step (3)-step (7)
Reason;
(3) branch mailbox is carried out to 8 obtained evaluation points by SPSS software, by each evaluation points branch mailbox and debris flow
Event does alternate analysis, obtains the different grading conditions of each factor according to alternate analysis result, by the evaluation of different classifications because
Son does probability alternate analysis with mud-rock flow channel Breakout events data, obtains the marking mark under different factor difference grading conditions
It is quasi-;
(4) the mud-rock flow evaluation points classification obtained according to step (3) and its scoring criterion carry out debris flow gully in research area
Scoring obtains the score of each factor of each evaluation unit in research area;
(5) according to Grey Incidence fundamental formular, selecting debris flow event data is reference example, 8 evaluation points be than
Compared with column, the weighted value of 8 evaluation points is obtained;
(6) it is calculated by the following formula debris flow gully sensitivity value size:
In formula, XiFor the debris flow gully evaluation points score of needs assessment;WiFor the corresponding weighted value of evaluation points, by step (5)
It determines;Y is the sensitivity assessment value of the debris flow gully of needs assessment;
(7) the sensitivity assessment value of each evaluation unit obtained according to step (6), using SPSS to sensitivity assessment in research area
Value carries out probability alternate analysis with debris flow event, obtains the sensitivity assessment classification thresholds of debris flow gully;
(8) by the scoring criterion and evaluation model that obtain to first group of data processing, it is quick that mud-rock flow is carried out to second group of data
A possibility that perception is evaluated, and next phase debris flow is obtained prediction, carries out precautionary measures in advance.
3. mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after the shake according to claim 2 based on material resource activity intensity, special
Sign is, in step (5), selecting reference example is debris flow event data.
4. mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after the shake according to claim 2 based on material resource activity intensity, special
Sign is that step (7), probability alternate analysis obtains the threshold value of mud-rock flow sensibility rank.
5. mud-rock flow Dynamic flexibility evaluation method after the shake according to claim 2 based on material resource activity intensity, special
Sign is, in step (8), current year debris flow gully sensibility is predicted according to the debris flow rule of upper one year.
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CN116127247B (en) * | 2023-02-14 | 2023-08-18 | 中国地震局地球物理研究所 | Probability risk analysis and calculation method for coupling multiple seismic source models |
CN117809260A (en) * | 2024-02-23 | 2024-04-02 | 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心 | Identification method and device for debris flow object source start and electronic equipment |
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