CN105427189A - Power grid vulnerability evaluation method under landslide hazard - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power grid vulnerability evaluation method under a landslide hazard. The method relates to a performance characteristic of a power grid transmission line, a geologic feature of an area where the power grid is located and a rainfall influence. A power grid vulnerability evaluation model under the landslide hazard is established. An objective reality of the power grid can be reflected through multidimensional aspects. A calculated power grid vulnerability evaluation value can reflect a real vulnerability degree of the power grid and can be effective so as to be taken as a quantification index of the power grid vulnerability evaluation under the landslide hazard so that a safe state of a power transmission network is determined. Related operation parameters can be obtained through carrying out statistics on geologic data of an area covered by the power grid system, good maneuverability and actual applicability are possessed. By using the power grid vulnerability evaluation method under the landslide hazard, a technology support and a guarantee can be effectively provided for power transmission network safety operation risk management. The method has important academic significance and an engineering value for improving power transmission network safety operation and emergency management.
Description
Technical field
Under the invention belongs to disaster scenarios it, power grid security performance evaluates and tests technical field, is specifically related to the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under a kind of landslide disaster.
Background technology
Electric power netting safe running is stablized significant to the national economic development and people's lives.Power transmission network inevitably will pass through ridge, edge, abrupt slope, river bank, coal mine gob, and these slope, region bodies bring out lower easy initiation landslide disaster in internal factor and external factor, cause the power grid accidents such as inclination of electric power tower, broken string and tripping operation.At present, have some researchs for electrical network component structure Risk Calculation, but under all not relating to landslide disaster, the security risk of power transmission network calculates.
As the mainstay of the national economy, the safe operation of electrical network is related to the vital interests of the people and the sound development of people's economy, is the basis of national stability harmonious development.Under Study of Landslides disaster, power transmission network Vulnerability assessment computing method have important theory significance and engineering practical value.Make a general survey of domestic and international present Research, can see that scholars are mainly manifested in icing, rainfall and wind lotus calamity disaster to the research of power transmission network in outside catastrophe situation, and mainly concentrate on outside catastrophe and the reliability of network system, catastrophe are affected to physical optics method is set up, system optimization problem, and lack for electrical network vulnerability analysis under landslide disaster is relative especially with the research of evaluation.
For ensureing the safe operation of electrical network, needing power transmission network security risk assessment computing method under exploitation landslide disaster badly, promoting the science of safety risk management.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiencies in the prior art, the invention provides the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under a kind of landslide disaster, the method has taken into account the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location thereof, also taken into account the rainfall amount impact of electrical network location simultaneously, under establishing landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster, quantizating index is provided with the evaluation and test of the electrical network vulnerability thought under landslide disaster, to solve in prior art the problem that the investigative technique of electrical network vulnerability analysis and evaluation under landslide disaster and means of evaluating and testing lack.
For achieving the above object, present invention employs following technical scheme:
Electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under a kind of landslide disaster, take electrical network as research object, under setting up the landslide disaster taking into account the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location and rainfall amount impact, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, and add up based on the geologic information data to network system institute covering area, rainfall amount historical data and landslide event history data, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster is calculated, in order to carry out the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test under landslide disaster by electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster; Specifically comprise the steps:
1) under setting up landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model:
V(N)＝1-(1-V(L)
max)×(1-S(N))；
Wherein, V (N) represents electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster; S (N) represents that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter; V (L)
maxrepresent the maximal value in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network, and under landslide disaster, the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) is as follows:
V(L)＝1-(1-V(T)
max)×(1-P)；
Wherein, P represents effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value, according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and obtaining; V (T)
maxmaximal value under the landslide disaster of the shaft tower that expression transmission line of electricity connects in shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T), and under landslide disaster, the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) is as follows:
V(T)＝1-(1-R×E)×S(T)；
Wherein, R represents the dangerous parameter of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, and E represents the degree of exposure parameter of the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower, and S (T) represents that performance parameter combated a natural disaster by the transmission tower of electrical network;
2) added up by the geologic information data of each shaft tower position to grid power transmission circuit, assessment determines that performance parameter S (T) combated a natural disaster by the degree of exposure parameter E of the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower and transmission tower, thus the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under utilizing landslide disaster, calculate shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under the landslide disaster of each shaft tower in electrical network respectively;
3) according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics, determine effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P of electrical network location, and determine the maximal value V (T) of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster among shaft tower that in electrical network, each transmission line of electricity connects respectively
maxutilize the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under landslide disaster, calculate transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network respectively, thus the maximal value V (L) under determining the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value
max;
4) by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, assessment determines that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter S (N), and together with the maximal value V (L) in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value under the landslide disaster of transmission line of electricity each in the electrical network determined before this
maxsubstitute into electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under landslide disaster;
5) according to electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under the landslide disaster obtained, the electrical network vulnerability under landslide disaster is evaluated and tested; Under described landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) is lower, and electrical network vulnerability is then lower, and the electric network reliability under landslide disaster can be then better.
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, specifically, described step 2) in, the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology of shaft tower position, be by after adding up the geologic information data of shaft tower position, exploration index corresponding in " geologic hazard exploration specification " according to corresponding geology data is determined.
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, specifically, described step 2) in, assessment determines that transmission tower relative to the concrete mode of the degree of exposure parameter E of landslide disaster is, according to the geometry site between the history landslide point of the shaft tower position of recording in the geologic information data of each shaft tower position of grid power transmission circuit and landslide event history data, assessment landslide disaster is to the extent of injury of shaft tower, according to the size of the described extent of injury, in the interval of [0,1], value is carried out to degree of exposure parameter E.
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, specifically, described step 2) in, assessment determines that transmission tower is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (T) and is:
Wherein, U
i(T) represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the value of i-th factor index of performance, α
irepresent described i-th factor index U
i(T) corresponding weighted value, i ∈ 1,2 ..., I}, I represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance; Affect transmission tower and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
i(T) corresponding weight value α
icalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, preferably, the described transmission tower that affects is combated a natural disaster the factor index of performance and is comprised 19, these 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) be specially:
Tower structure factor: U
1(T) shaft tower degree of tilt is represented, U
2(T) represent that foreign matter carries situation, U
3(T) shaft tower corrosion degree is represented, U
4(T) bolted degree is represented, U
5(T) tower material integrated degree is represented, U
6(T) tower material deformation extent is represented, U
7(T) tower material crackle is represented;
Pole and tower foundation factor: U
8(T) basic bank protection and flood control measure is represented, U
9(T) indication rod tower foundation steadiness, U
10(T) indication rod tower foundation load-carrying properties, U
11represent that foreign material pile up situation, U
12(T) basic integrality is represented, U
13(T) poor environment impact is represented, U
14(T) tin hat technique is represented;
Shaft tower management factors: U
15(T) monitoring time is represented, U
16(T) patrol frequency is represented, U
17(T) patrol officer's quantity is represented, U
18(T) electric power administrative law enforcement dynamics is represented, U
19(T) propaganda strength is represented;
These 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) each self-corresponding weighted value is as shown in the table:
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, specifically, described step 3) in, the concrete account form of effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P is:
P＝0.8P(R')+0.2P(R
h)；
Wherein, R
hrepresent the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the electrical network location same day, P (R
h) represent according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and what determine is R in the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the same day
hthe probable value on Shi Fasheng landslide; R' represents effective accumulation rainfall amount of electrical network location, P (R') represents according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and the probable value that landslide occurs when effective accumulation rainfall amount is R' determined, and has:
Wherein, R
nrepresent the rainfall amount of among continuous print K days before this n-th day, K is the statistics number of days carrying out effective accumulation rainfall amount statistics; λ represents the rainfall accumulation factor of electrical network location, and span is 0.3 ~ 0.7.
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, specifically, described step 4) in, assessment determines that electrical network is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (N) and is:
Wherein, U
j(N) represent and combat a natural disaster the value of jth item factor index of performance, β by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area
jrepresent described jth item factor index U
j(N) corresponding weighted value, j ∈ 1,2 ..., J}, J represent and combat a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area; Affect electrical network and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
j(N) corresponding weighted value β
jcalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
In electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under above-mentioned landslide disaster, preferably, the described electrical network that affects is combated a natural disaster the factor index of performance and is comprised 11, these 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) be specially:
Network system factor: U
1(N) overhead line structures density is represented, U
2(N) represent that circuit is in disaster district occurred frequently ratio, U
3(N) ratio for subsequent use is represented, U
4(N) rate of qualified voltage is represented, U
5(N) power supply fiduciary level is represented;
Electrical network location social factor: U
6(N) GDP level is represented, U
7(N) density of population is represented, U
8(N) traffic;
Administration of power networks factor: U
9(N) safety and contingency management system is represented, U
10(N) material stock ability is represented, U
11(N) expression department meets an urgent need cooperation level;
These 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) each self-corresponding weighted value is as shown in the table:
Compared to prior art, the present invention has following beneficial effect:
1, electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location thereof are taken into account, also taken into account the rainfall amount impact of electrical network location simultaneously, under establishing landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster, can the objective reality situation of reaction electrical network of various dimensions, the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value calculated can reflect the rapid wear degree of electrical network comparatively really, can effectively in order to the quantizating index as the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test carried out under landslide disaster, specify the safe condition of power transmission network.
2, the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, the operational parameter wherein related to can both obtain by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, the acquisition in parameter source is convenient, accurate, reliable, possesses good operability and practical application.
3, the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, effectively for power transmission network safe operation risk management provides technical support and guarantee, can have important academic significance and construction value to lifting power transmission network safe operation and contingency management.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that in the specific embodiment of the invention, performance factor index system figure combated a natural disaster by transmission tower preferably.
Fig. 2 is that in the specific embodiment of the invention, electrical network preferably combats a natural disaster performance factor index system figure.
Embodiment
The invention provides the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under a kind of landslide disaster, in the method, take electrical network as research object, under setting up the landslide disaster taking into account the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location and rainfall amount impact, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, and based on the geologic information data to network system institute covering area, rainfall amount historical data and landslide event history data are added up, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster is calculated by electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, in order to carry out the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test under landslide disaster.
Electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention specifically comprises the steps:
1) under setting up landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model.Electrical network vulnerability and transmission line of electricity vulnerability, electrical network combat a natural disaster performance close relationship, and therefore electrical network vulnerability is that transmission line of electricity vulnerability and electrical network combat a natural disaster the function of performance.Through research measuring and calculating, under the landslide disaster set up in the present invention, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model is:
V(N)＝1-(1-V(L)
max)×(1-S(N))；
Wherein, V (N) represents electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster; S (N) represents that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter; V (L)
maxrepresent the maximal value in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network.
About the vulnerability of transmission line of electricity under landslide disaster, due to the node that each shaft tower is transmission line of electricity, the fault of every transmission tower all can have influence on transmission line of electricity, and thus the vulnerability of transmission line of electricity is relevant with transmission tower vulnerability, the most dangerous shaft tower vulnerability is larger, and circuit vulnerability is larger.Rainfall simultaneously is also the important risk factor causing landslide disaster to occur, and due to the difference of condition of raining under different time condition, transmission line of electricity vulnerability also can be different.Through research measuring and calculating, under the landslide disaster set up in the present invention, the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) is as follows:
V(L)＝1-(1-V(T)
max)×(1-P)；
Wherein, P represents effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value, according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and obtaining; V (T)
maxmaximal value under the landslide disaster of the shaft tower that expression transmission line of electricity connects in shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T).
About shaft tower vulnerability under landslide disaster, because the landslide geology danger of shaft tower position is larger, shaft tower vulnerability is larger; The relative landslide disaster in shaft tower position more exposes, and shaft tower vulnerability is larger; Meanwhile, shaft tower anti-disaster ability is stronger, and its vulnerability is less.Therefore, the function that under landslide disaster, shaft tower vulnerability should be that the landslide geology of shaft tower position is dangerous, performance combated a natural disaster by the degree of exposure of the relative landslide disaster of electric pole tower and transmission tower.Through research measuring and calculating, under the landslide disaster set up in the present invention, the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) is as follows:
V(T)＝1-(1-R×E)×S(T)；
Wherein, R represents the dangerous parameter of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, and E represents the degree of exposure parameter of the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower, and S (T) represents that performance parameter combated a natural disaster by the transmission tower of electrical network.
2) added up by the geologic information data of each shaft tower position to grid power transmission circuit, assessment determines that performance parameter S (T) combated a natural disaster by the degree of exposure parameter E of the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower and transmission tower, thus the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under utilizing landslide disaster, calculate shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under the landslide disaster of each shaft tower in electrical network respectively.
2.1, the calculating of the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology of shaft tower position.
In actual applications, the value of the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology of shaft tower position, can by after adding up the geologic information data of shaft tower position, the exploration index corresponding in " geologic hazard exploration specification " according to corresponding geology data is determined, and can be normalized it, to obtain [0, 1] the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology of value in interval, guarantee the regression nature of the value of the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology better, reduce because different regions difference is on the differentiation impact of the dangerous parameter R value of landslide geology.
Certainly, if calculated to be more convenient for, also based on " geologic hazard exploration specification ", can investigate for part index number wherein, calculating the value determining the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology.Such as, as the account form of the dangerous parameter R of a kind of landslide geology that can adopt, relate to the correlative factor index of landslide geologic media complexity evaluations during following table 1 enumerates " geologic hazard exploration specification ", table 2 enumerate in table 1 enumerate the criteria for classification of factor index; Then, be directed to after on-the-spot investigation being carried out to shaft tower position based on the correlative factor index relating to landslide geologic media complexity evaluations in " geologic hazard exploration specification ", determine after Comprehensive Evaluation that the landslide geologic media complexity level of shaft tower position is complexity, moderate is complicated or simple concrete condition, determine the additive score related in " geologic hazard exploration specification " corresponding to each correlative factor index of landslide geologic media complexity evaluations according to table 3; Finally, the summation of each additive score corresponding to correlative factor index asking for landslide geologic media complexity evaluations, namely as the value of the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology of shaft tower position; Such account form is more simple and easy to operate.
Described table 1, table 2 and table 3 are as follows.
Table 1 comes down geologic media complexity evaluations table
Table 2 geologic media complexity index classification table
The additive score of table 3 factor index
2.2, the calculating of the degree of exposure parameter E of the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower.
The concrete mode of transmission tower relative to the degree of exposure parameter E of landslide disaster is determined in assessment, be according to the history landslide point of the shaft tower position of recording in the geologic information data of each shaft tower position of grid power transmission circuit and landslide event history data between geometry site, assessment landslide disaster is to the extent of injury of shaft tower, according to the size of the described extent of injury, in the interval of [0,1], value is carried out to degree of exposure parameter E.
2.3, the calculating of performance parameter S (T) combated a natural disaster by transmission tower.
Assessment determines that transmission tower is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (T) and is:
Wherein, U
i(T) represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the value of i-th factor index of performance, α
irepresent described i-th factor index U
i(T) corresponding weighted value, i ∈ 1,2 ..., I}, I represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance; Affect transmission tower and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
i(T) corresponding weight value α
icalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
about the analytical approach that Network Analysis Method (ANP) is ripe, specifically can see existing document " Wang Lianfen; The theory of Network Analysis Method (ANP) and algorithm [J]; The system engineering theory is put into practice, and 2001,21 (3): 44-50 ", the present invention no longer adds to repeat.
Determine that transmission tower is combated a natural disaster in the process of performance parameter S (T) in assessment, for the geologic agent situation of different regions, the determined transmission tower that affects is combated a natural disaster the factor index of performance and may be not quite similar, and needs to determine according to actual conditions.And as a kind of preferred version, through synthetic study analysis, performance combated a natural disaster by transmission tower, factor index system can be constructed from shaft tower, pole and tower foundation, management three aspects, its factor index system figure as shown in Figure 1, wherein contains altogether 19 factor indexs, these 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) specific as follows:
Tower structure factor: U
1(T) shaft tower degree of tilt is represented, U
2(T) represent that foreign matter carries situation, U
3(T) shaft tower corrosion degree is represented, U
4(T) bolted degree is represented, U
5(T) tower material integrated degree is represented, U
6(T) tower material deformation extent is represented, U
7(T) tower material crackle is represented;
Pole and tower foundation factor: U
8(T) basic bank protection and flood control measure is represented, U
9(T) indication rod tower foundation steadiness, U
10(T) indication rod tower foundation load-carrying properties, U
11represent that foreign material pile up situation, U
12(T) basic integrality is represented, U
13(T) poor environment impact is represented, U
14(T) tin hat technique is represented;
Shaft tower management factors: U
15(T) monitoring time is represented, U
16(T) patrol frequency is represented, U
17(T) patrol officer's quantity is represented, U
18(T) electric power administrative law enforcement dynamics is represented, U
19(T) propaganda strength is represented.
Owing to there is certain relevance between each factor index, Network Analysis Method (ANP) is adopted to calculate this 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) each self-corresponding weighted value, its result is as shown in table 4.
Table 4
And U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) the concrete value of every factor index in, then can be determined according to adopted corresponding evaluating standard.Such as, can by the classification in addition of the evaluation and test situation of each factor index, have and be low to moderate height and be respectively 1 grade, 2 grades, 3 grades, 4 grades, progression is higher shows more satisfied evaluation and test requirement; Then, the evaluation and test progression according to factor index determines corresponding value, such as, if factor index only reaches 1 grade, value is 0, if it is 0.3 that factor index only reaches 2 grades of values, if it is 0.6 that factor index only reaches 3 grades of values, if factor index only reaches 4 grades, value is 1.Concrete value condition, determines according to practical application request.
2.4, the calculating of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster.
After the degree of exposure parameter E of the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology obtaining shaft tower position, the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower and transmission tower combat a natural disaster performance parameter S (T), just can substitute into the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster, calculate shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under the landslide disaster of each shaft tower in electrical network respectively.
3) according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics, determine effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P of electrical network location, and determine the maximal value V (T) of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster among shaft tower that in electrical network, each transmission line of electricity connects respectively
maxutilize the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under landslide disaster, calculate transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network respectively, thus the maximal value V (L) under determining the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value
max.
3.1, the calculating of effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P.
According to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics, by carrying out correlation analysis to denoise pavement, accumulation denoise pavement, prophase programming attenuation coefficient and Landslide, the generation of landslide event and the probabilistic relation effectively between accumulation rainfall amount just can be drawn by linear fit.By to behind the most area of China in addition statistical study on the spot, the concrete account form that the present invention determines effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P is:
P＝0.8P(R')+0.2P(R
h)；
Wherein, R
hrepresent the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the electrical network location same day, P (R
h) represent according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and what determine is R in the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the same day
hthe probable value on Shi Fasheng landslide; R' represents effective accumulation rainfall amount of electrical network location, P (R') represents according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and the probable value that landslide occurs when effective accumulation rainfall amount is R' determined, and has:
Wherein, R
nrepresent the rainfall amount of among continuous print K days before this n-th day, K is the statistics number of days carrying out effective accumulation rainfall amount statistics; λ represents the rainfall accumulation factor of electrical network location, and span is 0.3 ~ 0.7.
And be R in the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the same day
hprobable value P (the R on Shi Fasheng landslide
h) and there is the concrete value of probable value P (R') on landslide when effective accumulation rainfall amount is R', then need further according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and determining.For area, urban district, Chongqing City, according to this area's rainfall amount historical data and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics, after linear fit, determine in area, urban district, Chongqing City, probable value P (R
h) and the computing formula of P (R') respectively as follows:
P(R
h)＝-2×10
-6×R
h 5+4×10
-4×R
h 4-0.025R
h 3+0.56R
h 2-0.71R
h+3.52；
P(R')＝-6×10
-5×R'
3+0.016R'
2-0.31R'+1.035。
Probable value P (the R in each area
h) and the concrete calculating of P (R'), need determine according to the rainfall amount historical data of corresponding area and landslide event history data are in addition actual.
3.2, in electrical network each transmission line of electricity landslide disaster under maximal value V (L) in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value
maxdetermination.
After determining effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P, only need further to determine respectively the maximal value V (T) of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster among shaft tower that in electrical network, each transmission line of electricity connects
maxthe computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under substitution landslide disaster, just transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network can be calculated respectively, thus the maximal value V (L) under determining the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value
max.
4) by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, assessment determines that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter S (N), and together with the maximal value V (L) in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value under the landslide disaster of transmission line of electricity each in the electrical network determined before this
maxsubstitute into electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under landslide disaster.
4.1, electrical network combats a natural disaster the calculating of performance parameter S (N).
Assessment determines that electrical network is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (N) and is:
Wherein, U
j(N) represent and combat a natural disaster the value of jth item factor index of performance, β by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area
jrepresent described jth item factor index U
j(N) corresponding weighted value, j ∈ 1,2 ..., J}, J represent and combat a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area; Affect electrical network and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
j(N) corresponding weighted value β
jcalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
Determine that electrical network is combated a natural disaster in the process of performance parameter S (N) in assessment, for the geologic agent situation of different regions, determined impact affects electrical network and combats a natural disaster the factor index of performance and may be not quite similar, and needs to determine according to actual conditions.And as a kind of preferred version, through synthetic study analysis, electrical network combats a natural disaster performance, factor index system can be built from electrical network factor, social factor, management factors three aspects, its factor index system figure as shown in Figure 2, wherein contains altogether 11 factor indexs, these 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) be specially:
Network system factor: U
1(N) overhead line structures density is represented, U
2(N) represent that circuit is in disaster district occurred frequently ratio, U
3(N) ratio for subsequent use is represented, U
4(N) rate of qualified voltage is represented, U
5(N) power supply fiduciary level is represented;
Electrical network location social factor: U
6(N) GDP level is represented, U
7(N) density of population is represented, U
8(N) traffic;
Administration of power networks factor: U
9(N) safety and contingency management system is represented, U
10(N) material stock ability is represented, U
11(N) expression department meets an urgent need cooperation level;
Owing to there is certain relevance between each factor index, Network Analysis Method (ANP) is adopted to calculate this 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) each self-corresponding weighted value, its result is as shown in table 5:
Table 5
And U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) the concrete value of every factor index in, then can be determined according to adopted corresponding evaluating standard.Such as, can by the classification in addition of the evaluation and test situation of each factor index, have and be low to moderate height and be respectively 1 grade, 2 grades, 3 grades, 4 grades, progression is higher shows more satisfied evaluation and test requirement; Then, the evaluation and test progression according to factor index determines corresponding value, such as, if factor index only reaches 1 grade, value is 0, if it is 0.3 that factor index only reaches 2 grades of values, if it is 0.6 that factor index only reaches 3 grades of values, if factor index only reaches 4 grades, value is 1.Concrete value condition, determines according to practical application request.
4.2, the calculating of electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under landslide disaster.
Determine that electrical network is combated a natural disaster after performance parameter S (N) in assessment, then can together with the maximal value V (L) in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value under the landslide disaster of transmission line of electricity each in the electrical network determined before this
maxsubstitute into electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under landslide disaster.
5) according to electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under the landslide disaster obtained, the electrical network vulnerability under landslide disaster is evaluated and tested; Under described landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) is lower, and electrical network vulnerability is then lower, and the electric network reliability under landslide disaster can be then better.
By the above-mentioned flow process of the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, can see, first it add up based on the geologic information data of each shaft tower position to grid power transmission circuit, determines the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster; Further, based on rainfall amount historical data and the landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics of electrical network location, determine the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under landslide disaster; Finally, by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, under establishing landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, make this model take into account the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location thereof, also take into account the rainfall amount impact of electrical network location simultaneously.Thus, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster is calculated by electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, can the objective reality situation of reaction electrical network of various dimensions, the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value calculated can reflect the rapid wear degree of electrical network comparatively really, effectively in order to the quantizating index as the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test carried out under landslide disaster, the safe condition of power transmission network can be specified.Simultaneously, in electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, involved operational parameter can both obtain by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, the acquisition in parameter source is convenient, accurate, reliable, possesses good operability and practical application.Electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under landslide disaster of the present invention, effectively for power transmission network safe operation risk management provides technical support and guarantee, can have important academic significance and construction value to lifting power transmission network safe operation and contingency management.
What finally illustrate is, above embodiment is only in order to illustrate technical scheme of the present invention and unrestricted, although with reference to preferred embodiment to invention has been detailed description, those of ordinary skill in the art is to be understood that, can modify to technical scheme of the present invention or equivalent replacement, and not departing from aim and the scope of technical solution of the present invention, it all should be encompassed in the middle of right of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method under a landslide disaster, it is characterized in that, take electrical network as research object, under setting up the landslide disaster taking into account the performance characteristic of grid power transmission circuit and the geologic feature of location and rainfall amount impact, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model, and based on the geologic information data to network system institute covering area, rainfall amount historical data and landslide event history data are added up, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster is calculated by electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, in order to carry out the electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test under landslide disaster, specifically comprise the steps:
1) under setting up landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluates and tests model:
V(N)＝1-(1-V(L)
max)×(1-S(N))；
Wherein, V (N) represents electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value under landslide disaster; S (N) represents that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter; V (L)
maxrepresent the maximal value in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network, and under landslide disaster, the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) is as follows:
V(L)＝1-(1-V(T)
max)×(1-P)；
Wherein, P represents effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value, according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and obtaining; V (T)
maxmaximal value under the landslide disaster of the shaft tower that expression transmission line of electricity connects in shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T), and under landslide disaster, the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) is as follows:
V(T)＝1-(1-R×E)×S(T)；
Wherein, R represents the dangerous parameter of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, and E represents the degree of exposure parameter of the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower, and S (T) represents that performance parameter combated a natural disaster by the transmission tower of electrical network;
2) added up by the geologic information data of each shaft tower position to grid power transmission circuit, assessment determines that performance parameter S (T) combated a natural disaster by the degree of exposure parameter E of the dangerous parameter R of the landslide geology of shaft tower position, the relative landslide disaster of transmission tower and transmission tower, thus the computation model of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under utilizing landslide disaster, calculate shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under the landslide disaster of each shaft tower in electrical network respectively;
3) according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics, determine effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P of electrical network location, and determine the maximal value V (T) of shaft tower vulnerability evaluation and test value V (T) under landslide disaster among shaft tower that in electrical network, each transmission line of electricity connects respectively
maxutilize the computation model of transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under landslide disaster, calculate transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value V (L) under the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network respectively, thus the maximal value V (L) under determining the landslide disaster of each transmission line of electricity in electrical network in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value
max;
4) by adding up the geologic information data of network system institute covering area, assessment determines that electrical network combats a natural disaster performance parameter S (N), and together with the maximal value V (L) in transmission line of electricity vulnerability evaluation and test value under the landslide disaster of transmission line of electricity each in the electrical network determined before this
maxsubstitute into electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test model under landslide disaster, calculate electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under landslide disaster;
5) according to electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) under the landslide disaster obtained, the electrical network vulnerability under landslide disaster is evaluated and tested; Under described landslide disaster, electrical network vulnerability evaluation and test value V (N) is lower, and electrical network vulnerability is then lower, and the electric network reliability under landslide disaster can be then better.
2. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 1 under landslide disaster, it is characterized in that, described step 2) in, the dangerous parameter R of landslide geology of shaft tower position, be by after adding up the geologic information data of shaft tower position, exploration index corresponding in " geologic hazard exploration specification " according to corresponding geology data is determined.
3. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 1 under landslide disaster, it is characterized in that, described step 2) in, assessment determines that transmission tower relative to the concrete mode of the degree of exposure parameter E of landslide disaster is, according to the geometry site between the history landslide point of the shaft tower position of recording in the geologic information data of each shaft tower position of grid power transmission circuit and landslide event history data, assessment landslide disaster is to the extent of injury of shaft tower, according to the size of the described extent of injury, [0, 1] in interval, value is carried out to degree of exposure parameter E.
4. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 1 under landslide disaster, is characterized in that, described step 2) in, assessment determines that transmission tower is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (T) and is:
Wherein, U
i(T) represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the value of i-th factor index of performance, α
irepresent described i-th factor index U
i(T) corresponding weighted value, i ∈ 1,2 ..., I}, I represent that adding up the determined transmission tower that affects by the geologic information data of the shaft tower position on grid power transmission circuit combats a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance; Affect transmission tower and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
i(T) corresponding weight value α
icalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
5. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 4 under landslide disaster, is characterized in that, the described transmission tower that affects is combated a natural disaster the factor index of performance and comprised 19, these 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) be specially:
Tower structure factor: U
1(T) shaft tower degree of tilt is represented, U
2(T) represent that foreign matter carries situation, U
3(T) shaft tower corrosion degree is represented, U
4(T) bolted degree is represented, U
5(T) tower material integrated degree is represented, U
6(T) tower material deformation extent is represented, U
7(T) tower material crackle is represented;
Pole and tower foundation factor: U
8(T) basic bank protection and flood control measure is represented, U
9(T) indication rod tower foundation steadiness, U
10(T) indication rod tower foundation load-carrying properties, U
11represent that foreign material pile up situation, U
12(T) basic integrality is represented, U
13(T) poor environment impact is represented, U
14(T) tin hat technique is represented;
Shaft tower management factors: U
15(T) monitoring time is represented, U
16(T) patrol frequency is represented, U
17(T) patrol officer's quantity is represented, U
18(T) electric power administrative law enforcement dynamics is represented, U
19(T) propaganda strength is represented;
These 19 factor index U
1(T) ~ U
19(T) each self-corresponding weighted value is as shown in the table:
6. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 1 under landslide disaster, is characterized in that, described step 3) in, the concrete account form of effective accumulation rainfall amount-Landslide value P is:
P＝0.8P(R')+0.2P(R
h)；
Wherein, R
hrepresent the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the electrical network location same day, P (R
h) represent according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and what determine is R in the hourly rainfall depth maximal value on the same day
hthe probable value on Shi Fasheng landslide; R' represents effective accumulation rainfall amount of electrical network location, P (R') represents according to the rainfall amount historical data of electrical network location and landslide event history data in addition association probability statistics and the probable value that landslide occurs when effective accumulation rainfall amount is R' determined, and has:
Wherein, R
nrepresent the rainfall amount of among continuous print K days before this n-th day, K is the statistics number of days carrying out effective accumulation rainfall amount statistics; λ represents the rainfall accumulation factor of electrical network location, and span is 0.3 ~ 0.7.
7. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 1 under landslide disaster, is characterized in that, described step 4) in, assessment determines that electrical network is combated a natural disaster the concrete mode of performance parameter S (N) and is:
Wherein, U
j(N) represent and combat a natural disaster the value of jth item factor index of performance, β by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area
jrepresent described jth item factor index U
j(N) corresponding weighted value, j ∈ 1,2 ..., J}, J represent and combat a natural disaster the total item of factor index of performance by adding up the determined electrical network that affects to the geologic information data of network system institute covering area; Affect electrical network and combat a natural disaster every factor index U of performance
j(N) corresponding weighted value β
jcalculated by Network Analysis Method and determine, and
8. the electrical network vulnerability evaluating method according to claim 7 under landslide disaster, is characterized in that, the described electrical network that affects is combated a natural disaster the factor index of performance and comprised 11, these 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) be specially:
Network system factor: U
1(N) overhead line structures density is represented, U
2(N) represent that circuit is in disaster district occurred frequently ratio, U
3(N) ratio for subsequent use is represented, U
4(N) rate of qualified voltage is represented, U
5(N) power supply fiduciary level is represented;
Electrical network location social factor: U
6(N) GDP level is represented, U
7(N) density of population is represented, U
8(N) traffic;
Administration of power networks factor: U
9(N) safety and contingency management system is represented, U
10(N) material stock ability is represented, U
11(N) expression department meets an urgent need cooperation level;
These 11 factor index U
1(N) ~ U
11(N) each self-corresponding weighted value is as shown in the table:
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Application publication date: 20160323 |