WO2020129315A1 - プログラム、情報処理装置及び情報処理方法 - Google Patents

プログラム、情報処理装置及び情報処理方法 Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2020129315A1
WO2020129315A1 PCT/JP2019/033863 JP2019033863W WO2020129315A1 WO 2020129315 A1 WO2020129315 A1 WO 2020129315A1 JP 2019033863 W JP2019033863 W JP 2019033863W WO 2020129315 A1 WO2020129315 A1 WO 2020129315A1
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WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
arrival time
target point
time
probability distribution
value
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Ceased
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PCT/JP2019/033863
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English (en)
French (fr)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
賀宣 松野
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Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA
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Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA
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Priority to US17/416,265 priority Critical patent/US12033527B2/en
Publication of WO2020129315A1 publication Critical patent/WO2020129315A1/ja
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical
Ceased legal-status Critical Current

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00—Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/20—Arrangements for acquiring, generating, sharing or displaying traffic information
    • G08G5/21—Arrangements for acquiring, generating, sharing or displaying traffic information located onboard the aircraft
    • B—PERFORMING OPERATIONS; TRANSPORTING
    • B64—AIRCRAFT; AVIATION; COSMONAUTICS
    • B64C—AEROPLANES; HELICOPTERS
    • B64C13/00—Control systems or transmitting systems for actuating flying-control surfaces, lift-increasing flaps, air brakes, or spoilers
    • B64C13/02—Initiating means
    • B64C13/16—Initiating means actuated automatically, e.g. responsive to gust detectors
    • B64C13/18—Initiating means actuated automatically, e.g. responsive to gust detectors using automatic pilot
    • B—PERFORMING OPERATIONS; TRANSPORTING
    • B64—AIRCRAFT; AVIATION; COSMONAUTICS
    • B64D—EQUIPMENT FOR FITTING IN OR TO AIRCRAFT; FLIGHT SUITS; PARACHUTES; ARRANGEMENT OR MOUNTING OF POWER PLANTS OR PROPULSION TRANSMISSIONS IN AIRCRAFT
    • B64D45/00—Aircraft indicators or protectors not otherwise provided for
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00—Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/30—Flight plan management
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00—Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/50—Navigation or guidance aids
    • G08G5/53—Navigation or guidance aids for cruising
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00—Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/70—Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions
    • G08G5/76—Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions for monitoring atmospheric conditions
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00—Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/50—Navigation or guidance aids
    • G08G5/55—Navigation or guidance aids for a single aircraft

Definitions

  • the present invention takes into consideration uncertainties during flight (such as weather prediction errors and airframe characteristic errors), and optimizes control inputs (speed, altitude, route, etc.) that satisfy the required arrival time at any target point on the flight route.
  • the present invention relates to a program, an information processing apparatus, and an information processing method for determining a corner, a cost index, a rise/fall rate, etc.).
  • an object of the present invention is to reduce the number of speed adjustments and the like to suppress the deterioration of fuel efficiency and comfort while suppressing the influence of uncertainty on the arrival time, an information processing device, and To provide an information processing method.
  • a program quantifies an uncertain predicted value that affects the arrival time of a moving body at a target point by using an actual measurement value to determine the uncertain predicted value.
  • the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time to the target point when the control input to the moving body that affects the arrival time at the target point is calculated, and the current control input is used, Calculated using the probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value, in the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time to the target point, the estimated arrival time for the arrival request time to the target point when using the current control input Is determined to be outside a first threshold value, and when the first statistic is outside the first threshold, the second statistic of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time is
  • the computer is caused to execute the step of determining the control input so as to be within the second threshold value.
  • the present invention by robustly managing the time with respect to the uncertain prediction value that affects the arrival time of the moving body at the target point, that is, the uncertainty with respect to the arrival time, the number of speed adjustments, etc. is reduced and the fuel consumption is reduced.
  • the influence of uncertainty on the arrival time can be suppressed while suppressing the deterioration of comfort.
  • the control input in the step of determining the control input, when the first statistic is outside the first threshold, the second statistic is within the second threshold. And the control input may be determined so as to optimize a predetermined cost.
  • the first and second statistics may be at least one of a probability, a moment, and a representative value in a probability distribution of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time. ..
  • the moving body is an aircraft
  • the uncertain prediction value is a weather prediction value and/or aircraft characteristics
  • the actual measurement value is relative to the weather prediction value.
  • the moving body is an aircraft
  • the control input to the aircraft is at least one of speed, altitude, route angle, cost index, and ascent/descent rate. Good.
  • An information processing apparatus quantifies an uncertain predicted value that affects the arrival time of a moving body at a target point by using a measured value to calculate a probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value.
  • An uncertainty estimation unit that is a control input to the moving body that affects the arrival time at the target point, and the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time to the target point when the current control input is used.
  • An estimated time-of-arrival estimation unit that calculates using the probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value, and a probability distribution of estimated time of arrival to the target point, up to the target point when the current control input is used.
  • An information processing method is to quantify an uncertain predicted value that affects the arrival time of a mobile body at a target point by using a measured value to calculate a probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value.
  • the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time to the target point which is a control input to the moving body that affects the arrival time to the target point, is calculated using the current control input.
  • the control input is determined so that
  • the present invention it is possible to reduce the number of speed adjustments and the like to suppress the deterioration of fuel efficiency and comfort while suppressing the influence of uncertainty on the arrival time.
  • FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining the content (continuous type) of processing by the arrival time control unit 13.
  • FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining the content (discrete type) of processing by the arrival time control unit 13.
  • 6 is a flowchart showing the operation of the information processing device 1.
  • 9 is a graph for comparing the number of speed changes of the information processing apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment with the related art.
  • 7 is a graph (No. 1) for comparing the time management accuracy of the information processing apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment with the related art.
  • 6 is a graph (No. 2) for comparing the time management accuracy of the information processing apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment with the related art.
  • FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of an information processing apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.
  • the information processing apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 1 is used for, for example, an existing on-board device or a peripheral device obtained during flight through an existing on-board device or a data link by weather forecast correction and error generation technology (see Non-Patent Document 1). In-flight uncertainty is corrected and residual error is quantified using flight data.
  • the information processing apparatus 1 utilizes the correction information and the error information generated during the flight as described above, considers the influence of the quantified uncertainty, and ensures that the arrival time falls within the target time management accuracy. , Determine the optimum control input (speed, altitude, route angle, cost index, climb/descent rate, etc.). That is, the information processing device 1 takes into consideration uncertainty during flight (such as weather prediction error and airframe characteristic error), and the optimum control input (speed, speed, Altitude, route angle, cost index, climb/descent rate, etc.).
  • the onboard equipment is used to calculate the optimum control input, and the determined optimum control input is directly transmitted to the control system of the aircraft to automatically guide and control the aircraft, or, for example, the onboard electronic flight
  • the information is transmitted to the pilot through the display device of the bag (EFB) to assist the pilot in making a flight decision.
  • EFB display device of the bag
  • the information processing device 1 is typically composed of an application program of an aircraft on-board device or an EFB application program, and includes an uncertainty estimation unit 11 and an estimated arrival time estimation unit 12. , And an arrival time control unit 13.
  • the uncertainty estimation unit 11 quantifies the uncertain predicted value in flight, which affects the arrival time of the aircraft at the target point, using the actual measurement value to calculate the probability distribution of the uncertain predicted value.
  • the uncertain predicted value that affects the arrival time is typically weather forecast, more specifically, for example, predicted wind speed, wind direction, and temperature
  • the actual measurement value is, for example, meteorological observation. This is a value, more specifically, the wind speed, wind direction, and temperature actually observed by the aircraft.
  • the uncertain predicted value includes not only the weather predicted value but also aircraft characteristics. More specifically, the airframe characteristics are, for example, fuel flow rate, engine parameters, thrust, and aerodynamic force.
  • the actual measurement value is a machine body measurement value for the machine body characteristic. In the following description, only the weather forecast will be described as an example of the predicted value, but a combination with the airframe characteristic or only the airframe characteristic may be used as the uncertain predicted value.
  • the control input to the aircraft is typically the flight speed of the aircraft. Control inputs to the aircraft include the flight speed of the aircraft, altitude, route angle, cost index, and climb/descent rate. Further, the control input to the aircraft may be two or more of these. Furthermore, it may be time-varying or time-invariant.
  • Fig. 2 shows an example of an uncertain predicted value, that is, a probability distribution of uncertainties.
  • the probability distribution of the uncertainties is generated by quantifying the weather forecast error, which is the difference between the weather forecast value and the actual observed value. For example, using the meteorological observation value (x_obs), the probability (p(x_1), p(x_2),..., Of the weather forecast (x_1, x_2,..., x_N) of the N patterns input in advance is used. p(x_N)) is calculated.
  • the continuous type probability distribution is illustrated in FIG. 2, a discrete type probability distribution may be generated as shown in FIG.
  • the estimated arrival time estimation unit 12 uses the probability distribution of the uncertainties shown in FIG. 2 or FIG. 3 to estimate the estimated arrival time to the target point when the flight route is planned at the current flight speed. Calculate the probability distribution.
  • Figure 4 shows an example of the probability distribution of estimated arrival times.
  • the estimated time of arrival (ETA) when flying at the current speed (v) is calculated for each of the above N patterns of weather forecast (x_1, x_2,..., x_N).
  • ETA_1, ETA_2,..., ETA_N and their probabilities (p′(ETA_1), p′(ETA_2),..., P′(ETA_N)) are calculated.
  • the estimated arrival time when flying at the speed v under the weather forecast x_1 is ETA_1
  • its probability p′(ETA_1) is the probability p(x_1) that the weather forecast is x_1.
  • the continuous type probability distribution is illustrated in FIG. 4, a discrete type probability distribution may be generated as shown in FIG.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 determines whether the statistical amount of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time at the current flight speed v is outside a predetermined threshold value based on the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time shown in FIG. 4 or 5.
  • the flight speed is determined so that the statistic of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time is within the predetermined threshold.
  • the probability Pr that satisfies the arrival request time (RTA) within the allowable range (-tol1 to +tol2). (The area of the diagonal line in the figure) is used, and the probability Pr is used for the threshold determination.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 maximizes the probability Pr, that is, maximizes the area of the diagonal line in the figure, as shown in the lower diagram of FIG. To determine the flight speed.
  • FIG. 6 exemplifies a continuous type probability distribution, it can be similarly implemented even if it is a discrete type probability distribution as shown in FIG. 7.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 sets the flight speed to v, the estimated arrival time to ETA, the arrival request time to RTA, the allowable range to -tol to +tol2, the probability Pr, and the probability distribution of the estimated arrival time to the target point to p.
  • '(ETA) if the probability Pr is less than or equal to a predetermined threshold value, the set speed v opt that maximizes the probability Pr is maximized by the following formula (1) when arriving at the arrival request time, If it is desired to arrive by the arrival request time, it is maximized by the following equation (2), and if it is desired to arrive after the arrival request time, it is maximized by the following equation (3).
  • FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the operation of the information processing device 1 configured as above.
  • the uncertainty estimation unit 11 uses the meteorological observation value and the aircraft measurement value during the flight to obtain the probability distribution (see FIG. 2 or FIG. 3) of the uncertainty element during the flight (the weather forecast, the aircraft characteristic, etc.). It is generated (step 801).
  • the estimated arrival time estimation unit 12 uses the probability distribution of the uncertainties (see FIG. 2 or 3) to obtain the current control input (speed, altitude, route angle, cost index, ascent/descent rate, etc.).
  • the probability distribution (see FIG. 4 or FIG. 5) of the estimated arrival time at the target point when the flight is performed in step S802 is generated (step 802). To generate.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 determines the threshold value of the estimated arrival time of the current control input (step 803), and if it is outside the threshold value, optimizes the control input that satisfies the arrival request time within the allowable range. (Step 804).
  • the flight speed is maximized in consideration of the influence of the error so that the arrival time falls within the time management accuracy. Can be determined.
  • the arrival time control unit according to the present invention is different from the first statistic when the first statistic of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time is outside the first threshold which is a predetermined threshold, or The control input is determined such that the second statistic of the estimated arrival time with respect to the arrival request time, which is the first statistic, is different from the first threshold value or is within the second threshold value which is the first threshold value. It is a thing.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 determines the set speed so as to maximize the probability Pr.
  • the arrival time control unit 13 determines that the probability Pr is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value.
  • the control input may be determined so as to optimize a predetermined cost under the condition that the probability Pr is within a predetermined threshold.
  • the optimization of the predetermined cost includes, for example, minimizing the fuel consumption amount, but it may be not only the fuel consumption amount but also another cost factor, or a combination thereof.
  • the probability Pr that satisfies the arrival request time (RTA) within the allowable range (-tol1 to +tol2) is used as the statistic.
  • Value, variance, skewness, etc.), representative value (median value, percentile value, mode value, etc.), or the like, or a combination thereof may be used.
  • the arrival time control unit uses the following equation (4) when the expected value E[ETA] of the estimated arrival time (ETA) is less than or equal to a predetermined threshold value. Then, the control input is determined so as to minimize the square of the difference between the expected value E[ETA] and the arrival request time RTA. ..
  • the arrival time control unit optimizes the predetermined cost under the condition that the expected value E[ETA] is within the predetermined threshold when the expected value E[ETA] of the estimated arrival time (ETA) is less than or equal to the predetermined threshold.
  • the control input is determined so that For example, consider the fuel consumption up to the target point as the predetermined cost. If you want to arrive at the arrival request time: Minimize fuel consumption Constraint: RTA-tol1 ⁇ E[ETA] ⁇ RTA + tol2 If you want to arrive by the arrival request time: Minimize fuel consumption Constraint: E[ETA] ⁇ RTA + tol2 If you want to arrive after the arrival request time: Minimize fuel consumption Constraint: RTA-tol1 ⁇ E [ETA]
  • the present invention can be applied not only to implementation on an aircraft but also to a ground air traffic control system.
  • the feasible arrival time can be determined and transmitted to each aircraft.
  • the present invention can be applied not only to aircraft but also to ships, trains, automobiles, etc., as long as the operation manages the arrival time.
  • uncertainties such as tidal currents in the case of ships, and uncertainties such as traffic jams in the case of automobiles.
  • the optimum speed can be determined by applying the present invention in consideration of such uncertainties in the operation.
  • Information processing device 11 Uncertainty estimation unit 12: Estimated arrival time estimation unit 13: Arrival time control unit

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  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Aviation & Aerospace Engineering (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Automation & Control Theory (AREA)
  • Traffic Control Systems (AREA)
  • Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
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PCT/JP2019/033863 2018-12-20 2019-08-29 プログラム、情報処理装置及び情報処理方法 Ceased WO2020129315A1 (ja)

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US12183211B2 (en) * 2020-08-14 2024-12-31 Honeywell International Inc. Method and system for initiating and managing required time of arrival constraints for an aircraft for all phases of flight
JP2024042218A (ja) * 2022-09-15 2024-03-28 株式会社日立製作所 飛行体位置監視システム、および、飛行体位置監視方法

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JP2013177120A (ja) * 2012-02-27 2013-09-09 Ge Aviation Systems Llc 飛行計画を飛行中に調節するための方法
JP2017503272A (ja) * 2013-12-31 2017-01-26 ザ・ボーイング・カンパニーＴｈｅ Ｂｏｅｉｎｇ Ｃｏｍｐａｎｙ 航空機トラジェクトリの画定および予測のためのシステムおよび方法
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US12033527B2 (en) 2024-07-09
JP2020101879A (ja) 2020-07-02
JP7228229B2 (ja) 2023-02-24
US20220051575A1 (en) 2022-02-17

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