WO2014199503A1 - 交通需要制御装置 - Google Patents
交通需要制御装置 Download PDFInfo
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- WO2014199503A1 WO2014199503A1 PCT/JP2013/066416 JP2013066416W WO2014199503A1 WO 2014199503 A1 WO2014199503 A1 WO 2014199503A1 JP 2013066416 W JP2013066416 W JP 2013066416W WO 2014199503 A1 WO2014199503 A1 WO 2014199503A1
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- B—PERFORMING OPERATIONS; TRANSPORTING
- B61—RAILWAYS
- B61L—GUIDING RAILWAY TRAFFIC; ENSURING THE SAFETY OF RAILWAY TRAFFIC
- B61L27/00—Central railway traffic control systems; Trackside control; Communication systems specially adapted therefor
- B61L27/10—Operations, e.g. scheduling or time tables
- B61L27/16—Trackside optimisation of vehicle or train operation
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- B—PERFORMING OPERATIONS; TRANSPORTING
- B61—RAILWAYS
- B61L—GUIDING RAILWAY TRAFFIC; ENSURING THE SAFETY OF RAILWAY TRAFFIC
- B61L27/00—Central railway traffic control systems; Trackside control; Communication systems specially adapted therefor
- B61L27/10—Operations, e.g. scheduling or time tables
- B61L27/12—Preparing schedules
Definitions
- an object of the present invention is to provide control information such that each transportation means has a desired use probability in a transportation network in which a plurality of transportation means are mixed.
- the area ID is obtained by dividing the entire area of the city covered by the city traffic represented by the route into a predetermined range according to the position of the point and assigning it with a unique ID.
- a dividing method a method of dividing a rectangle with a predetermined size according to the position information of the point can be considered. Or you may divide
- One area usually includes a plurality of pieces of point information.
- FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the relationship between an area ID, route information, and point information.
- the relationship between the area ID, route information, and point information is, for example, as follows.
- the scheduled operation resumption time 604 is a time at which the expectation that the transportation facility will resume operation due to the occurrence of an operation failure or accident is recorded.
- the generation route 605 is the name of the route where the failure / accident occurred.
- the occurrence location 606 is a location where a failure / accident occurred.
- the occurrence cause 607 is a cause of operation failure / accident.
- the operation normalization time 608 is the time when the transportation facility has recovered to normal operation. The difference between the operation normalization time 608 and the operation resumption scheduled time 604 is as follows.
- the passenger flow estimation unit 103 performs processing for estimating passenger flow based on past data cases.
- passenger flow is estimated by constructing a route selection model based on a discrete selection model.
- the route selection model based on the discrete selection model is a model based on the premise that a utility function of a route is defined and a passenger selects a route having a higher selection probability based on the utility value calculated by the utility function. For example, when considering moving from a certain departure area i to a destination area j, it is assumed that there are two means for moving, that is, route X and route Y.
- the passenger flow estimation unit 103 calculates a parameter for obtaining the selection probability of the passenger's means of transportation from past cases stored in the route database 108, the operation failure / accident information database 109, and the passenger flow history database 110. This calculation process is performed every time data is accumulated to some extent, for example, every week.
- Um is the utility value of path m, is the kth explanatory variable, is a parameter, and is a constant term.
- the utility value Um of the path m is calculated using the utility function obtained by performing parameter estimation after determining the explanatory variables. Therefore, in step 801, processing for selecting an explanatory variable is performed based on the route database 108 stored in the operation information management unit 101 and the information stored in the operation failure / accident case information database 109. That is, in step 801, as an explanatory variable, for example, which item is used as the utility function among “fee”, “required time”, “number of operations per hour”, and “expected time until operation restart” is used. decide. Which item is to be adopted may be determined in advance or may be input by the user for each calculation.
- step 802 with reference to the operation failure / accident case information database 109 stored in the operation information management unit 101, operation failure / accident case information related to the departure area i and the destination area j is acquired.
- the procedure for obtaining information on operation failures / accidents is as follows. First, the departure point 202 and the arrival point 203, which are information stored in the route data table 200, are acquired based on the information on the occurrence route 605, which is information stored in the operation failure / accident case data table 600. Next, based on the acquired information about the departure point 202 and the arrival point 203, the area ID 305 in the point information data table 300 is referred to, and the departure point where the departure area ID is i and the destination area ID is j 202, information on arrival point 203 is extracted.
- step 803 based on the departure point 202 and arrival point 203 information extracted in step 802, the flow history information with the departure area ID i and the destination area ID j is extracted from the passenger flow history database 110. To do.
- route selection result data is created based on the information extracted in steps 802 and 803.
- FIG. 9 shows route selection result data 900.
- the route selection result data 900 is data storing the value of each explanatory variable when each route is selected and the route selection result of each passenger.
- the route selection result data 900 includes data of an ID 901, a fee 902, a required time 903, the number of operations per time 904, a time 905 until the operation is resumed, and a selection result 907. These data sets exist as many as the number of routes used by passengers between the departure area i and the destination area j. Each passenger selects any one route, and the information is stored in the passenger flow history database 110. On the other hand, information on routes that have not been selected is referred to from the route database 109.
- ID 901 is ID 701 stored in the passenger flow history database 110.
- a fee 902 is a fee for each route, and corresponds to the fee 206 stored in the route data table 200.
- the required time 405 is the required time to the departure point 202 and the arrival point 203 where the departure area ID is i and the destination area ID is j. If the route is a selected route, the entry in the passenger flow history database 110 is performed. It is calculated from the time 702 and the entry time 703. On the other hand, if the route is not selected, the data of the standard required time 207 in the route data table 200 is referred to.
- the number of operations per hour 904 is the number of operations per hour of each route, and is referred to from the diagram information data table 400.
- step 805 the value of the utility function parameter is calculated. Specifically, it is calculated as follows. The selection result of the route n of the passenger i stored in the selection result 906 is assumed. Then, the simultaneous selection probability that the selection results for all passengers are realized is expressed as shown in Equation (5).
- FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an output result of the passenger flow estimation unit 103.
- the output result 1000 stores a departure function area ID 1001, a destination area ID 1002, a departure area ID 1001, and a utility function parameter 1003 calculated for each destination area ID 1002.
- the traffic demand adjustment unit 104 determines the route of each route for the combination of the departure area and the destination area related to the route on which the operation failure or accident occurred.
- the value of the explanatory variable is calculated so that the selection probability becomes a desired value. Then, by outputting the calculated value of the explanatory variable to the operation plan creation unit 105, the control method of the transportation means in the route when the operation failure occurs is determined.
- FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of the traffic demand adjustment unit 104.
- step 1101 information on an operation failure / accident that has occurred is input.
- the information is transmitted from the transport operator through the communication means.
- Information transmitted from the operator includes date 602, occurrence time 603, occurrence route 605, occurrence location 606, and occurrence cause 607 in the operation failure / accident case data table 600.
- a departure area and a destination area related to the route / point where the operation failure / accident occurred are extracted. Specifically, first, a departure area and a destination area through which a route in which an operation failure or accident has occurred pass are extracted. Then, from the set of combinations of the departure area and destination area, the point where the operation failure / accident occurred is between the departure area and the destination area or within the area. Extract area combinations.
- the same processing is performed for other explanatory variables such as “required time”, “the number of operations per hour”, and “time until restart of operation”, and the value of the explanatory variable is searched so as to have a predetermined selection probability.
- time to resume operation is uncertain at the stage where the operation failure occurs, an estimated value is designated based on past failure cases.
- the search method can be realized by a generally known optimization method with a constraint condition using a selection probability as an objective function.
- the traffic manager may set a predetermined selection probability.
- the determined explanatory variable information is transmitted to the operation plan creation unit as control information of the transportation means.
- the operation plan creation unit 105 uses the transportation control information created in the traffic demand adjustment unit 104 as input information to create a transportation plan for each route.
- an operation diagram is created using a known diagram creation algorithm method with “required time” given as control information, “number of operations per hour”, and “time to resume operation” as constraints.
- the information providing unit 106 is a device that guides control information to a passenger. Specifically, control information such as “required time”, “number of operations per hour”, and “time to resume operation” is sent to information boards installed at stations and bus stops and mobile terminals owned by passengers. Used to prompt the user to select a mode of transportation.
- the operation management unit 107 is a device that controls various control devices such as a signal device in order to operate a train and a bus based on an operation plan. Operation management can be performed by a known technique.
- FIG. 14 is an example of a configuration diagram illustrating the traffic demand control device 1400 according to the second embodiment.
- the operation information 101 further includes a road database 1401 and a route set creation unit 1402. By adding this configuration, it is possible to perform demand control of road traffic on which ordinary vehicles travel.
- the road database 1401 stores information constituting the road map, such as node IDs, link IDs, road widths, road types such as national roads and prefectural roads, and the like.
- the difference of the second embodiment of the operation failure / accident case data table 600 from the first embodiment is as follows.
- the case of a fault accident can be expressed by whether the road has been closed or lane restricted in the case of road traffic, while the transportation has stopped operating. Therefore, the information stored in the scheduled operation resumption time 304, the generation route 305, and the operation normalization time 308 in the first example are the normal normal operation restart scheduled time, the generation road, and the normal operation in the second example, respectively. Time.
- the information stored in the passenger flow history database 110 of the flow information management unit 102 further stores flow information based on probe data collected from vehicles traveling on the road.
- FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an example of a passenger flow history data table stored in the passenger flow history database 110 of the flow information management unit 102 that is additionally stored in the second embodiment.
- the passenger flow history data table 1500 includes a vehicle ID 1501 for identifying a vehicle that has collected probe data, a road start node ID 1502 and an end node ID 1503 for identifying a road link from which probe data has been collected, and the vehicle has its road link.
- An inflow time 1504 that is a time when the vehicle enters the vehicle, a travel time 1505 when the vehicle passes the road link, and a travel distance 1506 are configured.
- the route set creation unit 1402 is a device that creates a set of routes on a road from a certain departure area to a certain destination area.
- road traffic which is the case of the second embodiment
- there are many different routes from a certain departure area to a certain destination area compared to when considering only public traffic. I think that. If routes with slightly different travel routes are regarded as different routes and used as a route set, the probe data that traveled on each route decreases, and a highly reliable discrete selection model cannot be created.
- the route set creation unit 1402 performs processing that considers a route that can be regarded as the same route from a set of a plurality of different routes from a certain departure area to a certain destination area as a single route. A process of creating a route set that can be an option to the destination area is performed.
- FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing the operation of the saddle path set creation unit 1302.
- step 1601 probe information relating to all vehicles flowing out from area i and flowing into area j out of the probe data stored in passenger flow history data table 1501 is extracted.
- the area setting method is the same as in the first embodiment.
- FIG. 17 shows an image of probe information data relating to all vehicles flowing out from area i and flowing into area j.
- a road link represented by a set of pairs of a start node ID 1502 and an end node ID 1503 constituting the probe information is represented as 1701.
- a certain route 1702 is expressed by a set of road links 1701. Moreover, since several vehicles may use the same road, it is possible that the road link which comprises another path
- step 1602 focusing on a certain vehicle among the data extracted in step 1601, a road link sequence from area i to area j is extracted.
- step 1603 it is determined whether there is a route registered as a route set. If it exists, go to the next step 1604. If one does not exist, the process proceeds to step 1606 described later.
- step 1604 the link sequence is compared with all registered routes, and the duplication rate is calculated.
- the overlap rate is the rate at which road links overlap when link sequences are compared.
- the two link strings mean that the road links that overlap are large, and the link strings of both are similar.
- step 1605 it is determined whether the duplication rate is equal to or less than a threshold value. If it is less than the threshold for all routes, it is determined that similar routes have not yet been registered in the route set. Then, the process proceeds to step 1606 to calculate the toll and the required time for the route.
- the toll is determined based on the operation policy of the road billing system. For example, it is conceivable to set a toll that is proportional to the travel distance.
- the required time is calculated based on the standard required time for each road link registered in the road database. Or you may use the result of integrating
- step 1607 the link string is registered in the route set as one of routes when the area i is the destination and the area j is the departure point.
- step 1605 if it is determined in step 1605 that a route having an overlap rate equal to or greater than the threshold exists in the route set, it is determined that the route represented by the link string already exists in the route set. Then, the process returns to step 1602 and the same processing is performed on the link row related to the next vehicle.
- step 1608 it is determined whether or not the processing has been completed for the traveling trajectories of all the vehicles. If processing has not been completed for all the vehicles, the process returns to step 1602 to repeat the processing.
- step 1609 it is determined whether or not the processing has been completed for all combinations of the departure area and the destination area. If not completed, the process returns to step 1601 to repeat the process.
- FIG. 18 shows an example of the route stored in the route set after the route set creation unit process.
- an example is shown in which it is determined that there are two routes from the departure area to the destination area.
- the stored route is regarded as the same route as a link string including many overlapping road links.
- the difference in operation between the passenger flow estimation unit 105 in the present embodiment and the passenger flow estimation unit 105 in the first embodiment is as follows.
- the explanatory variable of the utility function uses the charge, the time required, and the time until resumption of traffic. Further, in determining the route to be used in creating the selection result data, the route using the route having the highest probe data overlap rate is used.
- the operation of the demand adjustment unit 106 in this embodiment is the same as that in the first embodiment. However, unlike the case of the first embodiment, the explanatory variable of the utility function uses the charge, the required time, and the time until the traffic is resumed.
- the operation plan creation unit 105 performs a process for creating information to be provided to the vehicle such as a fee, a required time, and a time until restart of traffic.
- Example 1 the structure which combined Example 1 and Example 2 is also considered.
- present invention can be operated not only when an operation failure occurs, but also during normal operation in order to distribute the load on the route.
- Each of the above-described configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, and the like may be realized by hardware by designing a part or all of them with, for example, an integrated circuit.
- Each of the above-described configurations, functions, and the like may be realized by software by interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function by the processor.
- Information such as programs, tables, and files for realizing each function can be stored in a recording device such as a memory, a hard disk, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.
- the control lines and information lines indicate what is considered necessary for the explanation, and not all the control lines and information lines on the product are necessarily shown. Actually, it may be considered that almost all the components are connected to each other.
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Abstract
Description
また、特開2010-18221号公報(特許文献2)がある。この公報には、「想定した輸送障害のもと、運転整理をせずに計画ダイヤを修正した単純予測ダイヤを暫定運転整理案として作成し、この暫定運転整理案に対する旅客流動シミュレーションを行う。旅客流動シミュレーションの結果として、暫定運転整理案に沿って列車が運行された場合の各旅客の行動実績等の旅客流動推定結果と、暫定運転整理案の評価とが得られる。続いて、シミュレーション結果をもとに、暫定運転整理案の不満箇所を修正した新たな暫定運転整理案を作成する。その後は、新たな暫定運転整理案に対する旅客流動シミュレーション、暫定運転整理案の不満箇所を修正した新たな暫定運転整理案の作成を繰り返し行う。そして、繰り返し作成された暫定運転整理案のうち、評価が最も“良い”暫定運転整理案が運転整理案として出力される。」と記載されている。
本願は上記課題を解決する手段を複数含んでいるが、その一例を挙げるならば、過去の運行状況を示す運行状況データと、旅客の交通手段の利用履歴を示す旅客流動履歴と、旅客が交通手段を選択する際の判断材料となる制御変数と、を記憶する記憶部と、前記記憶部に記憶された前記運行状況データ、および、前記旅客流動履歴、から旅客の交通手段ごとの利用確率を出発地または目的地に対応づけて求める演算処理部と、を有し、前記演算処理部は、指定された運行状況における各交通手段の利用確率が所定の値になるような前記制御変数を求め、交通を管理するシステムへ当該制御変数を提供することを特徴とする。
上記した以外の課題、構成及び効果は、以下の実施形態の説明により明らかにされる。
PX = Pr[UX > UY] …(1)
PY = 1- PX …(2)
PX = exp(UX)/{exp(UX)+exp(UY)} …(3)
運行計画作成部105では交通需要調整部104において作成された交通手段の制御情報を入力情報として、各経路における交通手段の運行計画を作成する。具体的には制御情報として与えられた「所要時間」、「時間あたりの運行本数」「運行再開までの時間」を制約条件として公知のダイヤ作成アルゴリズム手法を用いて、運行ダイヤを作成する。
また、制御線や情報線は説明上必要と考えられるものを示しており、製品上必ずしも全ての制御線や情報線を示しているとは限らない。実際には殆ど全ての構成が相互に接続されていると考えてもよい。
101 運行情報
102 流動情報
103 旅客流動推定部
104 交通需要調整部
105 運行計画作成部
106 情報提供部
107 運行管理部
108 路線データベース
109 運行障害・事故情報データベース
110 旅客流動履歴データベース
120 演算処理部
130 記憶部
140 出力装置
150 入力装置
160 運行管理装置
1400 交通需要制御装置
1401 道路データベース
1402 経路集合作成部
Claims (8)
- 過去の運行状況を示す運行状況データと、旅客の交通手段の利用履歴を示す旅客流動履歴と、旅客が交通手段を選択する際の判断材料となる制御変数と、を記憶する記憶部と、
前記記憶部に記憶された前記運行状況データ、および、前記旅客流動履歴、から旅客の交通手段ごとの利用確率を出発地または目的地に対応づけて求める演算処理部と、を有し、
前記演算処理部は、指定された運行状況における各交通手段の利用確率が所定の値になるような前記制御変数を求め、交通を管理するシステムへ当該制御変数を提供することを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項1において、
前記運行状況データには、過去に発生した運行障害に関する運行障害情報が記憶され、
前記演算処理部は、対象となる運行障害発生時に前記交通手段ごとの利用確率が所定の値になるような前記制御変数を求めることを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項2において、
前記演算処理部は、前記制御変数と、前記旅客流動履歴と、から利用確率を求める際に必要なパラメータを出発地または目的地に対応づけて求めるものであって、
さらに、利用確率を調整する対象日時の運行障害に関する前記運行障害情報を取り込み、当該運行障害に関係する出発地または目的地の前記パラメータを使用して前記利用確率が所定の値になるような前記制御変数を求めることを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項1において、
前記記憶部は、さらに道路地図情報を記憶し、
前記演算処理部は、前記旅客流動履歴と前記道路地図情報に基づいて所定の出発地から目的地までの旅客が選択した経路の集合情報を生成し、前記集合情報から主要な経路を選択し、当該選択した経路を用いて交通手段ごとの利用確率を求めることを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項3において、前記制御変数は離散選択モデルにおける説明変数であって、
前記演算処理部は、交通手段の利用料金、または、所要時間を前記説明変数とする効用値を求める際に必要なパラメータを求め、交通手段ごとの利用確率が所定の値になるような前記説明変数を求めることを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項3において、前記制御変数は離散選択モデルにおける説明変数であって、
前記演算処理部は、バスまたは鉄道の時間当たりの運行本数を前記説明変数とする効用値を求める際に必要なパラメータを求め、交通手段ごとの利用確率が所定の値になるような前記説明変数を求めることを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項1において、
さらに、求めた前記制御変数に基づいて交通手段の運行計画を作成する運行計画作成部を備えたことを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。 - 請求項1において、
さらに、求めた前記制御変数を交通手段を利用する旅客に案内するための情報提供部を備えたことを特徴とする交通需要制御装置。
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PCT/JP2013/066416 WO2014199503A1 (ja) | 2013-06-14 | 2013-06-14 | 交通需要制御装置 |
CN201380077376.6A CN105377664A (zh) | 2013-06-14 | 2013-06-14 | 交通需要控制装置 |
JP2015522360A JP6138934B2 (ja) | 2013-06-14 | 2013-06-14 | 交通需要制御装置 |
EP13886901.1A EP3009324A4 (en) | 2013-06-14 | 2013-06-14 | Traffic demand control device |
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Cited By (7)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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WO2019003672A1 (ja) * | 2017-06-28 | 2019-01-03 | 株式会社日立製作所 | 交通需要予測装置、及び交通需要予測方法 |
JP2019106113A (ja) * | 2017-12-14 | 2019-06-27 | 株式会社富士通アドバンストエンジニアリング | 情報処理方法、情報処理装置、及びプログラム |
JP2019200490A (ja) * | 2018-05-14 | 2019-11-21 | 株式会社東芝 | 情報処理装置および情報処理方法 |
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WO2019003672A1 (ja) * | 2017-06-28 | 2019-01-03 | 株式会社日立製作所 | 交通需要予測装置、及び交通需要予測方法 |
JP2019008689A (ja) * | 2017-06-28 | 2019-01-17 | 株式会社日立製作所 | 交通需要予測装置、交通需要予測方法、及び交通需要予測プログラム |
JP2019106113A (ja) * | 2017-12-14 | 2019-06-27 | 株式会社富士通アドバンストエンジニアリング | 情報処理方法、情報処理装置、及びプログラム |
US11009368B2 (en) | 2018-02-27 | 2021-05-18 | Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha | Action support device, action support method, and non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing program |
JP2019200490A (ja) * | 2018-05-14 | 2019-11-21 | 株式会社東芝 | 情報処理装置および情報処理方法 |
JP7134701B2 (ja) | 2018-05-14 | 2022-09-12 | 株式会社東芝 | 事故復旧予測装置および事故復旧予測方法 |
CN110837973A (zh) * | 2019-11-13 | 2020-02-25 | 北京师范大学 | 一种基于交通出行数据的人类出行选择信息挖掘方法 |
CN110837973B (zh) * | 2019-11-13 | 2022-04-29 | 北京师范大学 | 一种基于交通出行数据的人类出行选择信息挖掘方法 |
WO2021124527A1 (ja) * | 2019-12-19 | 2021-06-24 | 三菱電機株式会社 | 問題分解装置、問題分解方法、及び、問題分解プログラム |
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JP7090816B2 (ja) | 2019-12-19 | 2022-06-24 | 三菱電機株式会社 | 問題分解装置、問題分解方法、及び、問題分解プログラム |
CN113420926A (zh) * | 2021-06-29 | 2021-09-21 | 北京交通大学 | 一种城市枢纽间多交通方式运力协同优化方案编制方法 |
Also Published As
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JPWO2014199503A1 (ja) | 2017-02-23 |
EP3009324A1 (en) | 2016-04-20 |
EP3009324A4 (en) | 2017-01-25 |
CN105377664A (zh) | 2016-03-02 |
JP6138934B2 (ja) | 2017-05-31 |
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