WO2004022463A1 - 安全在庫量算出方法、安全在庫量算出装置、発注点算出方法、発注点算出装置及び発注量算出方法 - Google Patents
安全在庫量算出方法、安全在庫量算出装置、発注点算出方法、発注点算出装置及び発注量算出方法 Download PDFInfo
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- WO2004022463A1 WO2004022463A1 PCT/JP2003/010245 JP0310245W WO2004022463A1 WO 2004022463 A1 WO2004022463 A1 WO 2004022463A1 JP 0310245 W JP0310245 W JP 0310245W WO 2004022463 A1 WO2004022463 A1 WO 2004022463A1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/08—Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
- G06Q10/087—Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/10—Office automation; Time management
- G06Q10/101—Collaborative creation, e.g. joint development of products or services
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q20/00—Payment architectures, schemes or protocols
- G06Q20/08—Payment architectures
- G06Q20/20—Point-of-sale [POS] network systems
- G06Q20/203—Inventory monitoring
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q30/00—Commerce
- G06Q30/06—Buying, selling or leasing transactions
- G06Q30/0601—Electronic shopping [e-shopping]
- G06Q30/0633—Lists, e.g. purchase orders, compilation or processing
Definitions
- Safety stock quantity calculation method safety stock quantity calculation device, order point calculation method,
- the present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for calculating the amount of safety stock, and more particularly to a method for calculating safety stock based on future stock.
- the safety stock amount S S is calculated by the following [Equation 1].
- Equation 1 the standard deviation ⁇ of demand is calculated from the daily demand, and shows the variation of the daily demand against the average demand. In general, it is known that stochastic phenomena approach a normal distribution when they are integrated (central limit theorem), and in many cases the demand can also be considered to follow a normal distribution. If the standard deviation for one day is ⁇ , the standard deviation for ⁇ days is as follows from the additive nature of the variance. For this reason, [Equation 1] uses the square root of (inventory adjustment period X shipment occurrence frequency).
- the safety factor k indicates the degree of the allowable shortage rate, and the uncertainties such as fluctuations in demand and forecast errors It depends on how much care you take.
- the inventory adjustment period is the length of the period that must be covered by the quantity received in one order. This inventory adjustment period is the lead time L itself when the inventory management is performed by the reordering point method, and is the period obtained by adding the ordering cycle M to the lead time L in the case of the periodic ordering method.
- the shipment occurrence frequency indicates the number of orders placed during the inventory adjustment period. For example, when ordering three times in 10 days, a value such as 0.3 is set. If the standard deviation ⁇ of demand is calculated on a weekly or monthly basis, the lead time L and the time unit of the order cycle ⁇ are also adapted to this.
- each business module such as inventory management is built around an integrated database with a Daifuku book-type structure, and each module usually operates independently.
- the inventory management module uses the so-called MRP (Material Requirements Planning), which formulates a production plan based on the relationship between the parts of a product and the lead time, focusing on the required amount and timing of the material. Items are ordered based on future inventory, which is a forecast of future inventory.
- an order point and a fixed order quantity are defined for the reorder point method, and a calculation method for the order quantity is defined for the recurring order method.
- the reorder point and order quantity are determined using the above-mentioned safety stock quantity.
- the order quantity planned use quantity during the inventory adjustment period + safety stock quantity-current stock quantity-current order remaining quantity. .
- the conventional safety stock calculation method described above is This method calculates the amount of safety stock when placing an order by referring to the stock quantity and the ordering point, and does not necessarily apply to systems based on future stock. For this reason, in a system that manages inventory based on future inventory, such as an ERP package, using the value calculated by the conventional method may cause the safety stock to be too small or too large, and set an appropriate order point and order quantity. There was a problem that it was difficult to do. Therefore, on the ERP software, as the safety stock amount, the calculated value of the conventional method is input, knowing that the accuracy has decreased, or a value that is appropriately corrected based on the intuition and experience of the person in charge is input. He was unable to make full use of his ability, and was required to improve it.
- An object of the present invention is to provide a method and an apparatus for calculating a safe stock amount corresponding to a system for managing stock based on future stock.
- the safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention indicates a standard deviation ⁇ of demand for an article, an inventory adjustment period ⁇ ⁇ calculated from a lead time L of the article or its components, and a service rate S for demand.
- a safety stock amount calculation method for calculating a safety stock amount SS based on a safety coefficient k comprising calculating a probability Pb that a requested delivery date of a customer for the article is a short period of the lead time. Calculating a representative value LL of the difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date when the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date; and the inventory adjustment period N using the representative value LL. And calculating the safety stock amount s S based on the standard deviation, the corrected inventory adjustment period N, the probability Pb, and the safety coefficient k. Characterized in that it.
- the inventory adjustment period N is corrected by the representative value LL, and the safety delivery amount SS is calculated using the short delivery time probability Pb. And a realistic safety stock amount according to the above.
- the safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention is a calculation method using actual data such as the representative value LL and the short delivery time probability Pb, when ordering goods and the like based on future stock, It is also possible to appropriately set the safety stock of goods and other items in ERP packages.
- the safety stock amount SS may be calculated by the following equation.
- SS The P b X k X A / NX , safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention, and the standard deviation ⁇ of the demand for certain goods, inventory adjustment period ⁇ calculated from the lead time L of the article or components thereof And a safety stock amount calculation method for calculating a safety stock amount SS based on a safety coefficient k indicating a degree of service rate S with respect to demand, wherein the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date.
- calculating a safety stock amount SS based on the corrected stock adjustment period ⁇ and the safety coefficient k.
- the lead time L is replaced with the representative value LL to correct the inventory adjustment period N, and the regular ordering is performed.
- the inventory adjustment period N may be corrected by replacing the lead time L with a value obtained by adding the order cycle M to the representative value LL.
- the corrected inventory adjustment period N may be multiplied by a shipping frequency F.
- the representative value L L an average value of a difference between the lead time and the customer requested delivery date may be used.
- the calculation method may be applied to a system that performs inventory management based on a future inventory that is a predicted value of a future inventory amount. Note that inventory management here is a concept that also includes production management operations that involve procurement activities for goods and the like.
- the safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention includes a standard deviation ⁇ of past demand for an article, an inventory adjustment period ⁇ ⁇ calculated from a lead time L of the article or its component, and a service rate S for demand.
- An average overdue days calculation unit for calculating a representative value LL of a difference between the above, an inventory adjustment period correction unit for correcting the inventory adjustment period N using the representative value LL, the standard deviation, and the corrected inventory.
- An adjustment period N, a short delivery time probability Pb, and a safety stock amount calculation unit that calculates a safety stock amount SS based on the safety coefficient k.
- the inventory adjustment period correction unit corrects the inventory adjustment period N with the representative value LL
- the short delivery date probability calculation unit calculates the short delivery date probability Pb. Since the quantity SS is calculated, it is possible to set a realistic safety stock quantity in accordance with the occurrence of a case where safety stock needs to be handled. Further, the safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention calculates the safety stock amount using the actual data of the representative value LL and the short delivery time probability Pb. It is possible to appropriately set the safety stock of goods and other items even in ERP packages.
- the safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention includes a standard deviation ⁇ of past demand for an article, an inventory adjustment period ⁇ ⁇ calculated from a lead time L of the article or its component, and a service rate S for demand.
- a safety stock quantity calculation device for calculating a safety stock quantity SS based on a safety coefficient k indicating a degree of the demand, based on demand data of the goods ⁇ when the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date.
- a demand standard deviation calculating unit for calculating the standard deviation ⁇ , and calculating a representative value LL of a difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date when the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date.
- An average overdue days calculation unit an inventory adjustment period correction unit for correcting the inventory adjustment period ⁇ ⁇ using the representative value LL, the standard deviation, the corrected inventory adjustment period ⁇ , and the safety And having a safety stock quantity calculation output unit for calculating the safety stock quantity S S based on the coefficient k.
- a means for inputting the lead time L and the service rate S and a means for displaying the safety stock quantity SS may be further provided.
- the representative value LL is defined as the difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date.
- An average value may be used.
- the safety stock amount calculating device further includes an order point calculation unit for calculating an order point O by adding a value obtained by multiplying the average value A of demand and the representative value LL to the safety stock amount SS.
- the safety stock amount calculation device the planned use amount of the article or its component during the period in which the representative value LL and the order cycle M are added to the safety stock amount SS is added, and the current value is calculated from the value. It is also possible to further provide an order quantity calculation unit for calculating the order quantity O 'by reducing the stock quantity and the current order remaining quantity.
- the safety stock amount calculation program of the present invention uses a computer to calculate a standard deviation ⁇ of the article demand based on demand for a certain article, Means for calculating the probability Pb that the requested delivery date of the customer is a period shorter than the lead time L of the article or the component thereof, and in the case where the lead time L exceeds the requested delivery date of the customer, the lead time L Means for calculating a representative value LL of the difference between the requested date and the customer required delivery date; means for calculating an inventory adjustment period N using the representative value LL; the standard deviation; the corrected inventory adjustment period N; and the probability P. function as means for calculating the safety stock amount s S based on b and the safety coefficient k indicating the degree of service rate S with respect to demand.
- the safety stock amount calculation program of the present invention in order to calculate the safety stock amount SS, based on a demand for a certain article, a computer calculates a standard deviation ⁇ of the article demand for the article or its component. Means for calculating based on the data when the lead time L has exceeded the customer requested delivery date; representative of the difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date when the lead time L has exceeded the customer requested delivery date Means for calculating the value LL, means for calculating the inventory adjustment period ⁇ ⁇ using the representative value LL, the standard deviation ⁇ , the corrected inventory adjustment period ⁇ , and the safety coefficient k indicating the degree of the service rate S with respect to demand. Function to calculate the safety stock amount SS based on the
- the ordering point calculation method of the present invention calculates the outgoing point O by adding a value obtained by multiplying the average value A of demand and the representative value LL to the safety stock amount SS calculated by the safety stock amount calculation method. It is characterized in that it is calculated. Further, the order quantity calculation method of the present invention further comprises: adding the representative value LL to the safety stock quantity SS calculated by the safety stock quantity calculation method. Note: The order amount O 'is calculated by adding the planned use amount of the article or its components during the period in which the cycle / re M is added, and subtracting the current stock amount and the current order remaining amount from the value. And
- another method of calculating the amount of safety stock comprises the steps of: calculating a probability of occurrence of each item from a customer requested delivery date of a certain item and its frequency; and calculating a lead time occurrence probability of the item or its component. Calculating the order, predicting that the article is below the ordering point based on the customer requested delivery date and the lead time, place an order, and then dividing the ordering point when the article becomes available. Calculating an effective lead time T i indicating a period between the time when the expected lead time is predicted, and an effective lead time T i for each of the effective lead times T i based on the appearance probability of the customer requested delivery time and the occurrence probability of the lead time.
- another method of calculating the amount of safety stock includes the steps of: calculating a probability of appearance of each item from a customer requested delivery date of a certain item and its frequency from each delivery date to create a probability distribution g of the customer requested delivery date; Or calculating the probability of occurrence of the lead time of the component, creating a probability distribution h k of the lead time, and predicting that the article is below the ordering point from the customer requested delivery date and the lead time.
- an effective lead time indicating a period between a point in time when the article can be provided and a point in time when it is predicted that the order point will be broken; and a step of calculating the occurrence probability for each, to create a probability distribution fi effective lead time; based on a probability distribution h k of a probability distribution g and the lead time, the effective lead time T. Standard deviation beauty demand per unit period for certain articles. And calculating a safety stock quantity ss based on the safety coefficient k indicating the degree of the service rate S with respect to demand, and the effective lead time 1 and the probability distribution fi of the effective lead time. And
- the probability of appearance of The safety stock is calculated based on the effective lead time and its appearance probability, and the safety stock is calculated based on the effective lead time and its appearance probability.
- An inventory management system can be built.
- the safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention is a method of calculating a probability using actual data, it can be applied to the case where an order of an article or the like is made based on the future stock. Also, the safety stock amount of articles and the like can be set appropriately.
- the safety stock amount ss may be calculated by the following equation.
- the safety stock amount calculation method in Sutetsu flops for calculating the safety stock quantity ss may be further used demand frequency at F D indicating the probability of occurrence of periods demand per unit period is not zero.
- at least one of the probability distribution g of the customer requested delivery date or the probability distribution h k of the lead time may be a discrete probability distribution.
- Another safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention includes a delivery date appearance probability calculation unit that calculates an appearance probability for each delivery date from a customer requested delivery date for a certain item and its frequency, and a lead time of the article or its component.
- a lead time occurrence probability calculation unit for calculating the occurrence probability, and the customer requested delivery date and the lead time, the product is predicted to be below the ordering point, and after ordering, the item can be provided.
- An effective lead time calculation unit for calculating an effective lead time T i indicating a period between a point in time and a point in time when it is predicted that the order point will be broken; an occurrence probability of the customer requested delivery date and an occurrence of the lead time
- An effective lead time appearance probability calculation unit that calculates the appearance probability for each effective lead time 1 based on the above, and a standard deviation of the demand amount per unit period for a certain article.
- a safety stock quantity calculation unit for calculating a safety stock quantity ss based on the safety coefficient k indicating the degree of the service rate S with respect to demand, and the effective lead time 1 ⁇ and the appearance probability of the effective lead time. It is characterized by.
- another safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention is a device for calculating a customer requested delivery date for a certain article.
- a delivery date probability distribution calculation unit that calculates the probability of appearance for each delivery date from the frequency and creates a probability distribution gj of the customer requested delivery date, and a lead time occurrence probability of the article or its component is calculated, and a lead time probability is calculated. After calculating the lead time probability distribution to create the distribution h k , the customer requested delivery date and the lead time, predict that the article will be below the ordering point and place an order, and then determine that the article can be provided.
- an effective lead time calculation unit for calculating an effective lead time T indicating a period between the time when the expected order point is broken and the time when the order point is predicted to be divided ; the probability distribution gj of the customer requested delivery date; based on the distribution probability h k of I-time, said to calculate the probability of occurrence for each of the effective lead time T i, and the effective lead time probability distribution calculation unit to create a probability distribution fi of the effective lead time, there Standard deviation of the demand per unit period for goods sigma.
- a safety factor k that indicates a degree of the service rate S with respect to demand, and a safety inventory calculating unit that calculates a safety inventory ss based on the effective lead time 1 and the effective lead time probability distribution fi. It is characterized by having.
- the safety stock amount calculation device of the present invention the occurrence probability of the customer requested delivery date and the occurrence probability of the lead time are obtained, and the occurrence probability of the effective lead time is obtained by using them. Since the safety stock amount is calculated based on the future stock, a stock management system based on future stock can be constructed in a more general form. Further, since the safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention is a method of calculating a probability using actual data, it can be applied to the case where an order of an article or the like is made based on the future stock. Also, the safety stock amount of articles and the like can be set appropriately.
- another safety stock amount calculation program of the present invention uses a computer to calculate the safety stock amount ss of a certain item, based on the customer requested delivery date and the lead time of the item or its component, and After placing an order while predicting that the order point will be broken, the effective lead time 1 indicating the period between the point in time when the article can be provided and the point in time when it is predicted that the order point will be broken is calculated.
- Means for calculating, the appearance probability of the customer requested delivery date calculated from the customer requested delivery date and its frequency, the appearance probability and force of the lead time of the article or its component, and the appearance for each effective lead time Means for calculating a probability; standard deviation of demand per unit period for the article.
- a safety factor k indicating the degree of service rate S with respect to demand, and the effective lead time T i and the Means for calculating the safety stock amount ss based on the appearance probability of the effective lead time.
- another safety stock amount calculation program of the present invention calculates a safety stock amount SS of an article by calculating a probability of occurrence of the computer for each delivery date from a customer requested delivery date and its frequency.
- means for creating a probability distribution g 3 requests delivery, the article or calculates the probability of occurrence of lead time components thereof, means for creating a probability distribution h k of lead time, from the lead time and the customer request delivery date
- After placing an order by predicting that the article will break the ordering point indicates the period between the point at which the article can be provided and the point at which it is predicted that the article will break the ordering point.
- Means for calculating the effective lead time T calculating the appearance probability for each effective lead time T i based on the probability distribution gj of the customer requested delivery date and the distribution probability h k of the lead time, and calculating the effective lead time Means for creating a probability distribution fi, and the standard deviation sigma D unit period per Rino demand for the article, and a safety coefficient k indicating the degree of service rate S for demand, the effective lead time 1 and the effective lead time Function to calculate the safety stock quantity ss based on the probability distribution fi of.
- a demand frequency F D indicating the appearance probability of a period in which the demand amount per unit period is not zero is further added.
- the order point QRO may be used to calculate the order point QRO .
- Another ordering point calculation device of the present invention is a delivery date appearance probability calculation unit that calculates an appearance probability for each delivery date from a customer requested delivery date and a frequency for an article, and a lead time occurrence probability of the article or a component thereof. And a lead time occurrence probability calculation unit for calculating the lead time of the customer request and the lead time.
- An effective lead time calculation unit that calculates an effective lead time 1 indicating a period between the time when the order point is predicted to be broken, and an occurrence probability of the customer requested delivery date and an occurrence of the lead time.
- An effective lead time appearance probability calculation unit for calculating the appearance probability for each effective lead time 1, and a standard deviation of a demand amount per unit period for the article.
- a safety stock amount calculating unit that calculates a safety stock amount ss based on CT d , a safety coefficient k indicating a degree of service rate s with respect to demand, and an appearance probability of the effective lead time T i and the effective lead time,
- the marginal lead indicating the minimum effective lead time value after the cumulative probability of the effective lead time ⁇ ⁇ exceeds the service rate S, the safety stock amount ss, the representative value DA of the demand amount per unit period, and the effective lead time ⁇ ⁇ and having a reorder point calculation unit for calculating a reorder point Q RO based on a time L M.
- another ordering point calculation device of the present invention calculates a probability of appearance for each delivery date from a customer requested delivery date for a certain article and its frequency, and creates a customer requested delivery date probability distribution gj, Calculating a lead time occurrence probability of the article or its component, and a lead time probability distribution calculation unit for creating a lead time probability distribution h k ; andthe customer requested delivery date and the lead time, the article is an order point.
- calculate the effective lead time 1 indicating the period between the point in time when the article can be provided and the point in time when the order point is predicted to be broken.
- the effective lead time probability distribution calculation output unit for creating a beam of a probability distribution fi, the standard deviation of the demand per unit time for a goods sigma.
- a safety coefficient k indicating the degree of the service rate S with respect to demand, and the effective lead time T i and the probability distribution f of the effective lead time f described above;
- an order point calculation unit for calculating the order point.
- FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram of the safety stock amount calculation device according to the first embodiment of the present invention. '
- FIG. 2 is a control block diagram in the calculation device of FIG.
- FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a safety stock amount calculation method executed by the calculation device of FIG.
- FIG. 4 is a control block diagram of the safety stock amount calculating device according to the second embodiment of the present invention.
- FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a safety stock amount calculation method executed by the calculation device of FIG.
- FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the discrete probability distribution g j of the customer requested delivery date.
- FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the discrete probability distribution h k of the lead time.
- FIG. 8 is a table showing the calculation results of the effective lead time 1 ⁇ in the cases of FIGS.
- FIG. 9 is a table showing various calculation results using the discrete probability distribution f i of the effective lead time T i obtained in FIG. BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
- FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram of the safety stock amount calculating device according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
- FIG. 2 is a control block diagram of the calculation device of FIG. 1
- FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a safe stock amount calculation method executed by the calculation device of FIG.
- the calculation device has a configuration in which a CPU 1 and a memory 2, a storage device 3, an input device (input means) 4, and an output device (output means) 5 are connected by a bus 6.
- the memory 2 stores a safety stock calculation program 11, a work area 12, and a control program 13.
- the safety stock calculation program 11 is executed by the CPU 1 and calculates the safety stock according to the procedure shown in FIG.
- the safety stock calculation program 11 is an internal or external program in the ERP package. It is added on, stored on a computer-readable storage medium, read into the memory 2 via a drive device, and executed. Note that the safety stock calculation program 11 can be used independently of the ERP package.
- the work area 12 is a work area for storing intermediate results of processing based on the safety stock amount calculation program 11.
- the control program 13 is a program that controls the entire system, controls the storage device 3, the input device 4, and the output device 5, and controls them all when executing the safety stock calculation program 11. .
- the storage device 3 stores a sales / shipment record database (hereinafter, the database is abbreviated as DB) 14, an order DB 15, and a safety coefficient table 16.
- DB sales / shipment record database
- DB 15 stores past sales and shipment results for a certain product (product / product) and its components (parts / materials, etc.) (hereinafter referred to as products, etc.). It is.
- the order received DB 15 stores the past order results for each article and the like.
- the safety coefficient table 16 stores data or functions indicating the correlation between the service rate S and the safety coefficient k.
- the input device 4 is a keyboard, a mouse, or the like, and is a device for inputting various data and giving an instruction to the CPU 1.
- the output device 5 is a display, a printer, or the like, and is a device for displaying the calculated safety stock amount, order point, order amount, and the like. Note that the calculation device can be realized by a personal computer and its peripheral devices.
- the CPU 1 has functional means as shown in FIG. 2, and is roughly divided into a basic data calculation unit 21, a correction data calculation unit 22, a safety coefficient calculation unit 23, a safety stock amount It comprises a calculation unit 24 and an order point calculation unit 25.
- the lead time L, order cycle M, service rate (or allowable shortage rate) S, and the like are input to the CP U 1 via the input device 4.
- the lead time L includes not only the procurement lead time, which indicates the period from ordering of goods, etc. to arrival, but also the period obtained by adding the processing and assembly lead time to the procurement lead time, which indicates the assembly and processing periods of parts, etc.
- Various forms can be adopted depending on the properties of the article and the like, such as the period including transportation, inspection, and the like.
- the basic data calculation unit 21 calculates the standard deviation of demand, the average value A of demand, and the shipping frequency F based on the data of the sales / shipping results DB 14.
- the standard deviation ⁇ of demand is The standard deviation calculation unit 31, the average demand A is calculated by the demand average calculation unit 32, and the shipping frequency F is calculated by the shipping frequency calculation unit 33.
- As the standard deviation ⁇ an approximate value calculated by multiplying the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of the data by a predetermined coefficient (l X d 2 ) determined by the number of samples can be used.
- the correction data calculation unit 22 calculates correction data that is not used in the conventional safety coefficient calculation method based on the input data and the data of the order DB 15. In other words, there is a probability that the requested delivery date of the customer is an order shorter than the lead time L of the parts and materials used for the product (hereinafter abbreviated as “short delivery probability”). Calculated at 4. In addition, for the portion where the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date, the representative value LL of the difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date is defined as the average value of the difference between the two.
- the abbreviated days are abbreviated) by the average overdue days calculation unit 35.
- the inventory adjustment period N is calculated by the inventory adjustment period correction unit 36.
- the inventory adjustment period N is a period obtained by adding the order cycle M to the lead time L in the case of the reordering point method and the lead time L in the case of the regular ordering method in the conventional calculation method.
- the inventory adjustment period N is corrected by the average number of days over delivery L L calculated earlier, and the value is used as N.
- the safety stock amount calculation unit 24 calculates the safety coefficient k based on the data calculated by the basic data calculation unit 21 and the correction data calculation unit 22 and the safety coefficient k calculated by the safety coefficient calculation unit 23.
- the safety stock amount s S is calculated by the following equation.
- the order point calculation section 2.5 calculates the order point and order quantity based on the safety stock quantity S S calculated by the safety stock quantity calculation section 24.
- the current stock amount and the current order remaining amount are input from the input device 4.
- the safety stock amount S S is calculated by the following procedure, and the order point ⁇ and the like are obtained.
- steps S1 to S3 a lead time L, an order cycle M, and a service rate (or allowable stockout rate) S are input.
- Lead time L is the period from order placement to delivery, for example, enter 10 days.
- the order cycle M is an order interval when the regular order method is adopted, and this is also input, for example, 30 days.
- the service rate S is entered as 95% as described above.
- the CPU 1 accesses the safety stock amount calculation program 11 according to the control program 13, and various basic data are calculated based on the program.
- the safety stock amount calculation program 11 uses the CPU (computer) 1 to calculate the safety stock amount SS, the demand standard deviation calculation unit 31, the short delivery probability calculation unit 34, the average days beyond delivery date calculation unit 35, and inventory adjustment Period correction unit 36, calculation of safety stock amount ⁇ 4.
- the CPU 1 calculates the safety factor k, the standard deviation of demand, the average value of demand A, and the shipping frequency F. These values are stored in the work area 12 and used for subsequent calculations.
- the safety coefficient k is calculated by the safety coefficient calculation unit 23 from the input service rate S with reference to the safety coefficient table 16.
- the standard deviation of demand ⁇ , average value of demand ⁇ , and shipping frequency F are based on sales / shipment results DB14 data.
- the basic data calculation unit 21 calculates. Note that these values (k, a, A, F) can be directly input from the input device 4.
- the CPU 1 calculates various correction data.
- the short delivery time probability Pb is calculated by the short delivery time probability calculation unit.
- the short delivery date probability P b may be obtained by directly inputting the user's experience value from the input device 4. For example, when the number of data in the order DB 15 is small as at the beginning of system startup, manual input is performed because the probability cannot be calculated accurately.
- step S 9 the average overdue days LL is calculated by the average overdue days calculation unit 35.
- the average days beyond delivery date LL indicates the average number of days that must be taken care of in the safety stock, and is used to calculate the inventory adjustment period N in the next step S10.
- the average number of days over delivery LL is also calculated based on the data in the order DB 15, but it is also possible to input the user's experience value directly from the input device 4.
- step S10 the inventory adjustment period N is calculated by the inventory adjustment period correction unit 36.
- the calculation formula of N differs depending on the ordering method as described above, and it is also possible to input this directly from the input device 4.
- step S11 the safety stock amount calculation unit 24 calculates the safety stock amount SS using the above [Equation 2].
- the standard deviation of demand, ⁇ is the square of the difference between each data value and the predicted value, instead of taking the square of the deviation between each data value and the average value and finding ⁇ by the square root of the average value. May be used.
- [Equation 2] is obtained by multiplying [Equation 1] by the point that the average overdue days LL is used instead of the lead time L in calculating (1) and (2), and (2) Short delivery time probability P b
- the conventional calculation method calculates the amount of safety stock based on the procurement period from the current time.
- the calculation is performed using the average number of days exceeding the delivery date L L, that is, the actual corresponding period by the safety stock. For example, if the customer's average required delivery time is 7 days and the inventory adjustment period is 10 days, an average of 3 days of safety stock is actually required, but according to the conventional method, 10 days of safety stock is required. You need to have inventory. That is, with the method of the present invention, it is possible to calculate a more realistic safety stock amount than simply using the calculation method using the lead time L. In the above example, it is possible to omit seven days of stock. And reduce costs by reducing inventory.
- the calculation method uses actual data such as LL and short delivery time probability Pb, it is possible to handle the ordering of goods etc. based on future stocks. It can be set appropriately.
- step S 12 the order point O and the order quantity are calculated by the order point calculation section 25.
- the method according to the present invention can obtain a more accurate and lean order point.
- the calculated ordering point O and the like are displayed on the output device 5 together with the safety stock amount S S, and the user refers to it to give an ordering instruction for an article or the like.
- the safety stock amount SS is obtained using the short delivery time probability Pb.However, when the lead time L exceeds the customer required time period without using the short delivery time probability Pb.
- the standard deviation ⁇ can be calculated to calculate the safety stock SS.
- the short delivery date probability P b does not need to be found, and S S can be calculated from Equation 2] using an equation excluding P b.
- the demand standard deviation calculation unit 31 calculates the standard deviation ⁇ only from the demand data when the lead time L exceeds the customer requested delivery date. Further, the safety stock amount calculation unit 24 calculates the safety stock amount S S based on the standard deviation ⁇ calculated here, the corrected inventory adjustment period ⁇ , the shipping frequency F and the safety coefficient k.
- FIG. 4 is a control block diagram of the safety stock amount calculation device according to the second embodiment of the present invention
- FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a safety stock amount calculation method executed by the calculation device of FIG. Note that the same reference numerals are used for the same parts, means, and the like as in the first embodiment, and a description thereof will be omitted.
- the calculation device and calculation method of the second embodiment are obtained by expanding the first embodiment into a more general form, and the first embodiment is a special solution in which the conditions are specified in the second embodiment. Is equivalent to This calculating device is also similar to the calculating device of the first embodiment, It has a configuration in which U 1 is connected to memory 2, storage device 3, input device 4, and output device 5 via path 6.
- the CPU 1 receives, via the input device 4, an allowable stockout rate ⁇ (or service rate S), an order cycle ⁇ , and the like.
- the CPU 1 has functional means as shown in FIG. 4 and includes a basic data calculation unit 21, a calculation data calculation unit 26, a safety coefficient calculation unit 23, a safety stock amount calculation unit 24, and an order point calculation unit 25. ing.
- the basic data calculation unit 21 calculates the standard deviation ⁇ of the demand per unit period based on the data of the sales / shipping results DB 14. , Demand for the average value per unit time (typical) DA, and calculates the demand frequency F D. Standard deviation of demand ⁇ . Is calculated by the demand standard deviation calculation unit 41, and the demand average value D ⁇ ⁇ is calculated by the demand average value calculation unit 42, where a unit period, for example, a day, a month, etc., is set.
- Demand frequency F D is such demand per unit period is zero les, a probability of occurrence of periods, calculated by the demand frequency calculating unit 43.
- Demand frequency F D may, when viewed in shipments shipment frequency F, and the occurrence probability of daily amount shipment is not zero is equivalent to it. Further, when viewed in production, the demand frequency F D becomes production frequency, the probability of occurrence of daily production volume is not zero is equivalent to it.
- F D 1 and every, even during the demand is zero DA and sigma. May be calculated.
- the calculation data calculation unit 26 calculates various calculation data based on the input data and the data of the order DB 15.
- the calculation data calculation unit 26 is provided with a delivery date probability distribution calculation unit 44 that calculates the distribution probability distribution of the requested delivery date of the customer.
- the delivery date requested by the customer at the time of ordering has various periods from the day to several months and several years in the future, but for certain items, etc., it falls within a certain degree of variation. Therefore, the appearance probability can be represented in the form of a discrete probability distribution defined by g j from the customer requested delivery date DTj of the article to be managed and the number of requests.
- FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the discrete probability distribution g j of the customer requested delivery date.
- the probability that the customer requested delivery date DT is 1 day is 0.5
- the probability that it is 2 days is 0.3
- the probability that it is 3 days is 0.2
- the sum of the probabilities gj is Has become 1.
- the operation data calculation unit 26 is also provided with a lead time probability distribution calculation unit (lead time occurrence probability calculation unit) 45 for calculating a lead time discrete probability distribution h k .
- Lead time is when you know you need something It indicates the length of time from when the goods are delivered or production is completed to when they can be shipped or used, the procurement period when purchasing the goods, and the production lead time when producing the goods. Corresponds to that.
- the lead time also has various periods, but for a certain article, etc., it falls within a certain degree of variation. Therefore, from the frequency of occurrence of the lead time LT k of the articles and the like to be subjected to inventory management, the occurrence probability can be expressed in the form of a discrete probability distribution defined by h k .
- FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the discrete probability distribution h k of the lead time. Here, the case where the probability that the lead time LT is 3 days is 0.7 and the probability that the lead time LT is 10 days is 0.3 is shown, and the sum of the probabilities h k is 1.
- Effective lead time 1 is when an order or production instruction is issued in anticipation that a product will be below the ordering point, and then when the product is delivered or completed and shipped or usable, the order is placed. It is a value that indicates how much time has passed since the point where the point was predicted to be broken. '
- the lead time LT k is longer than the customer request delivery time DTj is, the difference of its is the effective lead time T i.
- the average number of days past delivery date LL in the first embodiment corresponds to the average value of the effective lead time Ti.
- the effective lead time 1 ⁇ is determined from LT k and DTj, LT k, since according to DTJ each discrete probability distributions h k a discrete probability distribution gj, also f effective Ridota I beam Ti; is defined by follow a discrete probability distribution. Therefore, the operation data calculation unit 26 is provided with an effective lead time probability distribution calculation unit 47 that calculates the discrete probability distribution f; of the effective lead time 1 ⁇ .
- the discrete probability distribution fi is divided into the discrete probability distribution gj of the required delivery date and the discrete distribution probability of the lead time for each effective lead time. It is calculated by multiplying by the ratio h k .
- FIG. 8 is a table showing the calculation results of the effective lead time 1 ⁇ in the cases of FIGS.
- 1 has the same number.
- the safety coefficient calculation unit 23 calculates the safety coefficient k using the allowable stockout rate ⁇ input via the input device 4.
- the safety factor k is calculated from the service rate S and the safety factor table 16, but here, more generally, the inverse function V ( ⁇ ) of the cumulative density function of the probability distribution of demand is used.
- the delivery unit 23 obtains a probability distribution of demand and creates a cumulative density function thereof. This cumulative density function is the integral of the probability distribution of the demand, and the function value corresponding to a certain demand indicates the probability that a demand below or above it will appear.
- Such an inverse function of the cumulative density function derives the demand from the appearance probability of the demand, and V () indicates the demand at which the appearance probability becomes. Therefore, if the allowable shortage rate is used as ⁇ , the demand quantity that leads to the allowable shortage rate ⁇ will be derived.
- the safety stock amount calculation unit 24 calculates the safety stock amount ss based on the data calculated by the basic data calculation unit 21 and the calculation data calculation unit 26 and the safety coefficient k calculated by the safety coefficient calculation unit 23. calculate.
- the safety stock amount SS is calculated by the following equation.
- V (X) V ((P (T l ) x Xi )) [Equation 7]
- Equation 7 can be transformed as [Equation 8] from the additive nature of dispersion.
- V ( ⁇ ) ⁇ [p (T i ) 2 V (x i ) ⁇ [Equation 8] From the definition of X i, the variance V (Eq. 8 can be transformed to [Eq. 9] as shown in [Eq. 9].
- V (X) ⁇ (p (T i ) 2 xT i xV (x)) [Equation 9] xV (x) [Equation 10]
- ⁇ x is expressed as follows.
- the order point calculation section 25 calculates the order point and the order quantity based on the safety stock quantity ss calculated by the safety stock quantity calculation section 24. If the quantitative ordering scheme, order point such calculation unit 25 functions as a reorder point calculation unit, where order point Q R. Is calculated by the following equation.
- the safety stock amount ss is calculated by the following procedure, and the order point O and the like are obtained.
- the allowable stockout rate ⁇ (or service rate S) and the order cycle ⁇ are input.
- Order size Cru M is the ordering interval when the regular ordering method is used. For example, 30 days is entered. However, in the case of the quantitative ordering method, no entry is required. Enter the allowable shortage rate ⁇ , such as 5%.
- the CPU 1 accesses the safe storage amount calculation program 11 in accordance with the control program 13, and various basic data are calculated based on the access.
- the safety stock quantity calculation program 11 uses the CPU 1 to calculate the safety stock quantity ss by using the delivery date probability distribution calculator 44, the lead time probability distribution calculator 45, the effective lead time calculator 46, and the effective lead time. Function as the probability distribution calculator 47 and the safety stock calculator 24.
- the safety coefficient k is obtained from the cumulative density function v (o and the standard deviation ⁇ .)
- the CPU 1 After calculating the basic data, the CPU 1 reads the customer requested delivery date DTj and the lead time LT k from the order receipt DB 15 in steps S17 and S18. Then, various operation data are calculated using these values. First, in step S19, a discrete probability distribution gj of the customer requested delivery date as shown in FIG. 6 is calculated. In step S20, a lead time discrete probability distribution h k as shown in FIG. 7 is calculated. .
- step S21 the CPU 1 proceeds to step S21, and calculates the effective lead time 1 ⁇ using the discrete probability distribution gj of the requested delivery date and the discrete distribution probability h k of the lead time.
- LT k> For DTj Ti LT k one DTJ next, if the LT k ⁇ DTj becomes Ti-O.
- the discrete probability distribution of the required delivery date gi From the distribution probability h k and the effective lead time T i, the discrete probability distribution f; of the effective lead time is obtained using [Equation 3] (step S22).
- Fig. 9 is a table showing the calculation results of f and the cumulative total of the discrete probability distribution fi within the square root of [Equation 5] using the discrete probability distribution f ; of the effective lead time obtained in Fig. 8. .
- step S25 the ordering point calculation section 25 calculates the ordering point QRO and the ordering amount using the above [Equation 12].
- LT DT rain maximum lead time minus minimum delivery time.
- M is the probability of occurrence of an order that must be produced or procured because it is too late to place an order after receiving the order, and corresponds to the short delivery time probability P b in Embodiment 1.
- ⁇ ⁇ may be obtained from past results or experience.
- the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and it goes without saying that various modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention.
- the numerical values of Pb and the like shown in the above-described embodiment and the examples of FIGS. 6 to 9 shown in the second embodiment are merely examples, and the calculation method and the calculation device according to the present invention are not limited thereto. It goes without saying that it is not limited. Further, in the above-described example, the case where the method of the present invention is utilized as a part of the ERP package has been described, but the method and apparatus may be used alone.
- the present invention can be applied to ordering methods other than “periodic ordering” and “quantitative ordering”. For example, set the maximum and minimum quantities of stock in advance and assign the order point (minimum quantity). At this point, it can be applied to various ordering methods, such as an intermediate ordering method that orders the difference between the stock amount and the maximum amount at that time.
- the representative value L of the difference between the lead time L and the customer requested delivery date the average number of days over delivery, which is the arithmetic average (arithmetic average) of the difference between the two, was used.
- various averages such as geometric mean (geometric mean) and harmonic mean of difference between lead time L and customer requested delivery date, median (median), mode (mode), and experience It is also possible to use a value or the like.
- other representative values representing the distribution may be used for the average values A and D A of demand. That is,
- the present invention is also applicable to a case where the demand does not have a normal distribution.
- a distribution function of the demand is obtained, and a safety coefficient k satisfying a desired service rate S is obtained therefrom. You may ask for it.
- Embodiment 2 an example has been described in which both the appearance probability of the lead time LT k and the occurrence probability of the customer requested delivery date DT j are discrete distributions, but either one may be a continuous distribution. .
- the combination of the effective lead time 1 ⁇ becomes enormous, and the calculation burden of the separation probability distribution f ; becomes large. May be used to calculate the discrete probability distribution fi.
- a so-called Monte Carlo simulation may be executed using a random number table or the like.
- the standard deviation ⁇ of the demand for a certain article In a safety stock amount calculation method for calculating a safety stock amount SS based on an inventory adjustment period N calculated from a lead time L of the article or a component thereof and a safety coefficient k indicating a degree of service rate S with respect to demand, Since the inventory adjustment period N is corrected to the average number of days exceeding the delivery date LL and the safety stock amount SS is calculated using the short delivery probability Pb, the reality is based on the occurrence of cases where safety stock must be handled Safety stock can be set.
- the safety stock amount is calculated using the actual data of the average overdue days LL and the short delivery time probability Pb, it is possible to respond to the ordering of goods, etc. based on future stocks.
- the safety stock quantity of goods etc. can be set appropriately for knockouts.
- the probability of occurrence of customer requested delivery date and the probability of occurrence of lead time are determined, and the probability of occurrence of effective lead time is determined by using them. Since the safety stock amount is calculated based on the probability, it is possible to construct a more general form of a stock management system based on future stock.
- the safety stock amount calculation method of the present invention is a method of calculating a probability using actual data, it can be applied to an order of an article or the like based on a future stock, and can be applied to an ERP package or the like. It is possible to set the safety stock of goods etc. appropriately.
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JP2004534101A JP3698433B2 (ja) | 2002-09-06 | 2003-08-12 | 安全在庫量算出装置、安全在庫量算出プログラム及び発注点算出装置 |
AU2003255003A AU2003255003A1 (en) | 2002-09-06 | 2003-08-12 | Safe stock amount calculation method, safe stock amount calculation device, order making moment calculation method, order making moment calculation device, and order making amount calculation method |
US10/526,545 US7933805B2 (en) | 2002-09-06 | 2003-08-12 | Safe stock amount calculation method, safe stock amount calculation device, order making moment calculation method, order making moment calculation device, and order making amount calculation method |
US13/045,765 US20110161208A1 (en) | 2002-09-06 | 2011-03-11 | Safety stock amount calculation method, safety stock amount calculation device, reorder point calculation method, reorder point calculation device, and order quantity calculation method |
US13/045,917 US8140396B2 (en) | 2002-09-06 | 2011-03-11 | Safety stock amount calculation method, safety stock amount calculation device, reorder point calculation method, reorder point calculation device, and order quantity calculation method |
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US13/045,917 Division US8140396B2 (en) | 2002-09-06 | 2011-03-11 | Safety stock amount calculation method, safety stock amount calculation device, reorder point calculation method, reorder point calculation device, and order quantity calculation method |
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CN110322203A (zh) * | 2019-07-05 | 2019-10-11 | 江苏云脑数据科技有限公司 | 零售业库存优化分析方法 |
CN110322203B (zh) * | 2019-07-05 | 2022-05-03 | 江苏云脑数据科技有限公司 | 零售业库存优化分析方法 |
WO2024071528A1 (ko) * | 2022-09-27 | 2024-04-04 | 현대자동차주식회사 | 부품 발주 시스템 및 그 방법 |
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AU2003255003A1 (en) | 2004-03-29 |
US20060026072A1 (en) | 2006-02-02 |
US8140396B2 (en) | 2012-03-20 |
US7933805B2 (en) | 2011-04-26 |
JPWO2004022463A1 (ja) | 2005-12-22 |
US20110161208A1 (en) | 2011-06-30 |
JP3698433B2 (ja) | 2005-09-21 |
US20110161196A1 (en) | 2011-06-30 |
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