KR950001283A - 배수유량예측장치 - Google Patents

배수유량예측장치 Download PDF

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KR950001283A
KR950001283A KR1019940013673A KR19940013673A KR950001283A KR 950001283 A KR950001283 A KR 950001283A KR 1019940013673 A KR1019940013673 A KR 1019940013673A KR 19940013673 A KR19940013673 A KR 19940013673A KR 950001283 A KR950001283 A KR 950001283A
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drainage flow
flow rate
drainage
daily
trend pattern
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후또시 구로가와
슈이찌로 고바야시
타다요시 무라야마
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사또 후미오
가부시끼가이샤 도시바
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
    • G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
    • G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
    • G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
    • G05B13/04—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators
    • G05B13/048—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators using a predictor
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    • G05D7/06—Control of flow characterised by the use of electric means
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    • Y10S706/00—Data processing: artificial intelligence
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Abstract

배수유량의 실적데이타를 학습하는 능력을 갖고, 계절마다 일단위의 배수유량 및 1일을 통한 시간단위의 배수유량을 예측할 수 있는 배수유향예측장치를 제공한다.
축적된 과거의 기상실적데이타를 기본으로 계절마다 기상실적을 처리하고, 일일 얻어지는 시간단위의 배수유량실적을 기본으로 계절마다 배수유량실적을 처리하고, 얻어진 처리데이타를 기본으로 계절마다 일단위 배수유량과 사간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 예측하는 뉴랄네트워크모델을 사용하고, 백프로퍼게이션법에 의해서 가중치계수를 학습함으로써 계절마다 일단위의 배수유량과 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 예측하는 예측모델을 동정하는 매계절예측모델학습수단(23)과, 기후 등의 당일의 정보를 입력함으로써, 해당하는 계절의 일단위의 배수유량과 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 예측하는 예측모델을 선택하고, 이 선택된 예측모델에 의해서 일단위의 배수유량을 예측하는 한편, 이 선택된 예측모델에 의해서 얻어진 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 과거의 실적배수유량추이패턴의 특징량과 비교함으로서 가장 유사한 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴을 과거의 실적배수유량추이패턴에서 검색하여 그것을 시간단위배수유량추이패턴예측으로써 예측하고, 예측된 상기 일단위의 배수유량의 값과 상기 시간단위배수유량추이패턴 예측의 값의 2개의 예측치를 곱함으로써, 시간단위의 배수유량을 예측하는 매계절배수유량예측수단(24)을 구비한 것을 특징으로 한다.

Description

배수유량예측장치
본 내용은 요부공개 건이므로 전문내용을 수록하지 않았음
제 1 도는 본 발명에 의한 배수유량예측장치의 개략구성을 나타낸 블록도, 제 2 도는 제 1 도에 있어서의 주요한 구성을 상세하게 나타낸 블록도, 제 3 도는 추이패턴의 특징량을 나타낸 도면, 제 4 도는 뉴랄네트워크의 구조를 설명하는 도면, 제 5 도는 유사배수유량패턴의 검색방법을 설명하는 도면.

Claims (6)

  1. 상수도시설에 있어서의 정수장 등에서 배수되는 당일의 시간단위의 배수유량을 예측하는 배수유량예측 장치이고, 축적된 과거의 기상실적데이타 및 평일, 휴일의 정보를 기초로 계절마다 기상실적을 처리하는 매 계절기상실적데이타처리수단과, 일일 얻어지는 시간단위의 배수유량실적을 기본으로 계절마다 배수실적을 처리하는 매계절배수유량데이타처리수단과, 계절마다 일단위배수유량과 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 예측하는 뉴랄네트위크모델을 사용한 예측모델에 관한 것이며, 상기 매계절기상실적데이타처리수단 및 상기 매계절배수유량데이터처리수단에 의해서 얻어진 처리데이타를 기본으로, 백프로퍼게이션법에 의해서 가중치계수를 학습함으로써, 상기 예측모델을 동정하는 매계절예측모델학습수단과, 기후, 기온, 평일 또는 휴일 등의 당일의 정보를 입력함으로써, 상기 예측모델을 사용하여 해당하는 계절의 일단위의 배수유량과 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을 예측하는 동시에, 예측모델에 의해서 얻어진 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴의 특징량을매계절배수유량데이타처리수단내의 과거의 실적배수유량추이패턴의 특징량과 비교함으로써 가장 유사한 시간단위의 배수유량추이패턴을 과거의 실적배수유량추이패턴에서 검색하여 그것을 시간단위배수유량추이예측패턴으로서 구하여, 예측된 상기 일단위의 배수유량의 값과 상기 시간단위배수유량추이예측패턴의 값의 2개의 예측치를 곱함으로써, 시간단위의 배수유량을 예측하는 매계절배수유량예측수단을, 구비하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
  2. 제 1 항에 있어서, 매계절배수유량예측수단에 있어서, 비교되는 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량은, 오전 및 오후의 배수유량의 피크치, 및 오전 및 오후의 배수유량의 상승의 값을 포함하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
  3. 제 2 항에 있어서, 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량은, 오전 및 오후의 피크치의 비를 더 포함하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
  4. 제 3 항에 있어서, 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량은, 오전중의 피크치가 나오는 시각 및 오후의 피크치가 나오는 시각을 더 포함하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
  5. 제 4 항에 있어서, 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량은, 오전 및 오후의 상승점에서 소정시간까지의 단위시간당 배수유량의 적산치를 더 포함하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
  6. 제 1 항에 있어서, 시간단위배수유량추이패턴의 특징량은, 패턴의 특징을 나타내는 여러가지의 값으로 되어, 각각의 값에 대한 중요도에 의해서 가중치를 두어 과거의 실적배수유량추이패턴의 특징량과 비교하는 것을 특징으로 하는 배수유량예측장치.
    ※ 참고사항 : 최초출원 내용에 의하여 공개하는 것임.
KR1019940013673A 1993-06-17 1994-06-17 배수유량예측장치 Expired - Fee Related KR0148039B1 (ko)

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JP93-146494 1993-06-17
JP14649493A JP3352153B2 (ja) 1993-06-17 1993-06-17 配水流量予測装置

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JP3352153B2 (ja) 2002-12-03
JPH073848A (ja) 1995-01-06
CN1053247C (zh) 2000-06-07
CN1097829A (zh) 1995-01-25
US5448476A (en) 1995-09-05

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