JP3446635B2 - Thundercloud observation system - Google Patents

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a thundercloud observation system for observing a thundercloud based on echo information from a weather radar and predicting movement of the observed thundercloud and prediction of a lightning strike.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Generally, in a large-scale power supply system having a plurality of power plants, substations, power transmission lines, etc., it is generated around the system due to a request for avoiding damage due to lightning strike or speeding up accident recovery measures. It is necessary to observe the scale, trends, etc. of the thunderclouds that have been generated and to predict in advance the locations and time zones of lightning strikes caused by these thunderclouds. For example, JP-A-8-1
In Japanese Patent No. 22433, it is possible to identify a precipitation area in a cloud that greatly spreads within a radar coverage area and a thundercloud area in the precipitation area, which is applied to such power equipment and is used for forecasting a lightning strike. , Describes a thundercloud observation system that enables highly accurate thundercloud identification / tracking based on the identified thundercloud area.

Further, in the description of the second embodiment (corresponding to FIG. 8) of the above-mentioned Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 8-122433, the ups and downs of the thundercloud to be observed is judged from the increase and decrease of the acquired time series ups and downs data, It is described that it is determined whether the thundercloud region under observation is strong lightning or weak lightning based on the result of this determination.
There are those described in JP-A-110378 and JP-A-7-110379. ).

[0004]

As described above, the conventional thundercloud observation system applied to the power supply system for large electric power such as electric power equipment is required to avoid damage due to a lightning strike or speed up accident recovery measures. It is necessary to accurately predict the location of the lightning strike caused by the thundercloud, the time zone, etc.
For example, there has been proposed a thundercloud observation system and the like capable of highly accurate identification / tracking processing of the thundercloud region, such as the thundercloud observation system described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 8-122433. However, unlike a target such as an aircraft, the target of such a thundercloud observation system is that its shape changes over time and its existence itself disappears. Although it is possible to accurately identify / track the thundercloud region in the precipitation region spreading over a wide range by the method described in the above-mentioned JP-A-8-122433, comparison is made from this tracking cycle from these identification / tracking results. It is extremely difficult to predict the movement position or ups and downs of the thundercloud area after a long and constant period of time, and as a result, the operator monitoring the thundercloud misrecognizes and misjudges the location or time zone of the lightning strike. For example, there was a problem in the prediction reliability of the thundercloud observation system that was used for forecasting the early occurrence of lightning strikes.

For example, when the result of identification / tracking of the above-mentioned thundercloud observation system is displayed on a monitor and the operator monitors the thundercloud based on the display contents, the operator identifies / tracks the thundercloud displayed on the monitor. From the results, it is necessary to predict the moving position and the lightning strike position after a certain period of time and issue a lightning strike warning, etc., but as described above, the shape of the thundercloud, which is the target of observation by this observation system, changes with the passage of time. Is that the existence itself disappears, and it is possible to make a nearly accurate prediction of the movement position of the thundercloud at a relatively close time (about the tracking cycle) from the past movement trajectory, but comparison For the moving position of the thundercloud at a far future time (for example, about 30 to 60 minutes), it is almost impossible to make accurate prediction from the past moving locus. Even if the movement position and movement locus of the thundercloud 30 minutes later or even 60 minutes after the past movement locus are predicted, the direction in which the movement predicted thundercloud deviates from the predicted movement locus in reality. There may be a situation in which the vehicle is moving or has already disappeared at an intermediate point of the predicted movement trajectory.

As described above, the fact that the moving position of the thundercloud and the ups and downs of the thundercloud at a relatively distant time can be accurately grasped leads to the early prediction of lightning strike, and in turn, the damage due to the lightning strike accident can be avoided in advance. This can be a great advantage (for example, in a power supply system having a plurality of power plants as described above, switching of power transmission lines 1
In any case, it takes a lot of money and time, and we do not want to switch useless transmission lines as much as possible, but if it is possible to predict in advance that a lightning strike will occur at an operating power station, move to an operating power station. In addition to being able to reliably avoid lightning strikes, it is possible to realize extremely efficient switching of transmission lines. ).

As described above, it is judged whether the thundercloud is ups and downs, and whether the thundercloud under observation is a strong lightning or a lightning thunder, that is, the thundercloud is in the developmental stage, based on the increase and decrease of these time series ups and downs data. Thundercloud observation systems for determining whether a thundercloud is a strong lightning or a lightning thunderstorm have been proposed. However, it is not possible to predict the lightning strike position of the thundercloud, the time zone, etc., early from these observations.

The present invention has been made in order to solve such a problem, and provides a more accurate thundercloud movement prediction or thunderstorm prediction by performing extinction prediction, movement prediction, etc. of the thundercloud based on the ups and downs of the thundercloud. The purpose is to obtain a new thundercloud observation system that can

[0009]

A thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 1 is an area determination section for determining a thundercloud area from observation data of a meteorological observation means, and the above-mentioned thundercloud area determined by this area determination section. a motion estimation unit for predicting a movement position of the thunder cloud area by the area determining data, over said area determination unit
A rise / fall pattern generator that generates a rise / fall pattern of the above-mentioned thundercloud region from the region determination data of the thundercloud region, and the rise / fall pattern thereof.
Extinction prediction unit that predicts the extinction time of the above thundercloud region by extrapolation processing, and the current thundercloud region determined by the above region determination unit
It is the prediction result of the movement prediction unit together with the display image of
The trajectory of the thundercloud area was predicted by the extinction prediction unit.
Display until the extinction time, and the thundercloud after the extinction time
It is obtained by a display processing unit to hide the movement locus of the band.

A thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 2
Is a region determination unit that determines the thundercloud region from the observation data of the meteorological observation means, a movement prediction unit that predicts the movement position of the thundercloud region based on the region determination data of the thundercloud region determined by this region determination unit, and Area of the above thundercloud area of the area determination unit
The ups and downs pattern generation unit that generates ups and downs patterns of the above thundercloud area from the judgment data and the past ups and downs pattern of the thundercloud area
Database and register the above information from this database.
Rise and fall patterns in the thundercloud region generated by the decay pattern generator
The rise and fall patterns similar to the
Based on the last rise and fall pattern,
Until the disappearance of the thundercloud area generated by
Disappearance prediction unit that predicts the disappearance probability of
Display image of the current thundercloud area determined by
Trajectory of the above thundercloud area, which is the prediction result of the
The extinction probability of the above thundercloud region predicted by the
Is obtained by a display processing unit that displays, respectively.

A thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 3
, Said display processing unit, display the map information around the thunder cloud area
Shown above and changed based on the map information
The disappearance probability of the cloud area is displayed .

A thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 4
Is the area for determining the thundercloud area from the observation data of the meteorological observation means.
Area determination unit and the above thundercloud determined by this area determination unit
The ups and downs pattern of the above thundercloud area is determined by the area judgment data of the area.
The rise and fall pattern generation part to generate and this rise and fall pattern generation
Data of the above-mentioned thundercloud area of
Select the tracking means or the calculation conditions of the tracking means according to the ups and downs.
The tracking means selection section to be selected and the tracking means selected by this tracking selection section.
The tracking area or the calculation conditions of the tracking means
Performs tracking processing of the above thundercloud area determined by the determination unit
From the tracking processing section and the tracking result of this tracking processing section,
It is obtained by a movement prediction unit for predicting a movement position of the band.

In the thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 5, the tracking means is a Kalman filter .

[0014]

[0015]

[0016]

[0017]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiment 1. An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to FIGS. 1 to 7. FIG. 1 is a block configuration diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, and FIG. 2 is a weather observation means for observing echo information in an observation region (for example, a radar device for weather observation).
FIG. 2 is an explanatory view of the observation situation schematically showing the observation situation of the thundercloud. The thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1 was obtained by the observation data of the meteorological observation means as shown in FIG. 2 and other meteorological observation means described later. The observation data is supplied, and the movement or disappearance of the thunderclouds generated in the observation area is predicted from these observation data. here,
The observation area refers to an area where echo information and the like are observed by the meteorological observation means, and covers a fairly wide area including the above-described electric power equipment and its peripheral portion. The block diagram shown in FIG. 1 shows a basic configuration of a thundercloud observation system according to the present invention, and a thundercloud observation system in another embodiment includes other components in addition to the configuration of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. They are added or some of the configuration contents are changed.

In FIG. 1, reference numeral 1 integrally processes various kinds of observation data obtained from each meteorological observation means, and outputs area determination data serving as a reference for determining a precipitation area and a thundercloud area to an area determination unit 2 in a subsequent stage. The data integration processing unit 2 is a region determination unit that determines and identifies a precipitation region that has occurred in the observation region based on the region determination data output from the data integration processing unit 1 and further a thundercloud region in this precipitation region. Is a tracking processing unit that extracts a thundercloud area from the determination result of the area determination unit 2 and performs identification / tracking processing on the extracted thundercloud area. Reference numeral 4 is a predetermined time of the thundercloud that is tracking-processed based on the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3. A movement prediction unit 5 for predicting the movement position after the passage determines the ups and downs of the thundercloud area extracted from the area determination unit 2, and generates ups and downs of the thundercloud area based on the time series of ups and downs. A turn determination unit, 6 performs an extinction prediction process described later based on the ups and downs pattern generated by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5, and obtains the ups and downs situation until the observed thundercloud region disappears (until now). It is for predicting future ups and downs from the ups and downs. For example, the ups and downs of the thundercloud area after 20 minutes or 60 minutes after the current observation point is required. The result, the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3, the prediction results of the movement prediction unit 4 and the disappearance prediction unit 6, and the like are respectively input, and based on these, for example, a display image as shown in FIG. It is a display processing unit to be displayed on the display unit.

Further, in FIG. 2, reference numeral 8 has an antenna section for transmission and reception, and acquires echo information in the observation region, specifically, echo intensity data (rainfall intensity mesh data) in a rectangular coordinate system, A meteorological observation means (for example, a radar device for meteorological observation, hereinafter referred to as a meteorological radar) supplied to the data integration processing section 1 shown in 1, 9 is a thundercloud generated in the observation area, and 10 is an antenna section of the meteorological radar 8. The weather radar 8 rotationally scans the transmission beam 10 in, for example, the AZ direction, and transmits the rotational scanning to a predetermined elevation angle (scanning in the EL direction). ) By doing so, echo information in the observation area (hereinafter simply referred to as echo information) is obtained. Further, the weather radar 8 can obtain new echo information by repeating the rotational scanning up to the predetermined elevation angle, and the observation cycle of this echo information is set to an optimum time from the relationship with the observation accuracy of the weather radar 8. Set it (if the observation period is set to be short, scanning within the observation area must be performed in a short time, and the number of integrations of the data will be reduced accordingly, and the observation accuracy will deteriorate.). The meteorological radar 8 shown in FIG. 2 obtains echo information, but a meteorological Doppler radar (hereinafter referred to as Doppler radar) capable of measuring changes in the Doppler velocity of an observation target, for example. You may use. When the Doppler radar is used, the Doppler velocity can be measured in addition to the echo information, so that detailed changes in convection inside the thundercloud can be observed. Movement prediction can be realized.

Next, the operation of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1 will be further described in detail with reference to FIGS. 3 to 7.
FIG. 3 is an operation flowchart for explaining the operation of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is described in, for example, Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 8-122433 described above. A process of generating a rising and falling pattern of the thundercloud (S0) in parallel with the tracking process (S02) of the thundercloud region like the described thundercloud observation system.
3) is performed, and the display processing unit 7 displays the movement prediction result and the disappearance prediction result of the observed thundercloud area on the display unit such as a monitor based on the processing results of these respective processes (S02 to S06).

First, when the observation of echo information is started by the weather radar 8 as shown in FIG. 2, the echo intensity data from the weather radar 8 and other data are stored in the data integration processing unit 1 of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. High-rise weather information from the meteorological observation means (This high-rise weather information is regularly provided by the Meteorological Agency, and altitude-temperature contrast data showing the relationship between altitude and temperature in the observation area is obtained from this high-rise weather information. And are input respectively. Data integration processing unit 1
As described above, calculates the region determination data for thundercloud determination from the observation data (here, echo intensity data, altitude-temperature contrast data, etc.) of these meteorological observation means. As described in Japanese Patent No. 122433, VIL (vertical direction integrated moisture content) data calculated from echo intensity data for each mesh unit and echo apex temperature data calculated from echo intensity data and high-level meteorological information are output as region determination data. . This area determination data is calculated and output based on the echo information for each observation period obtained by the weather radar 8.
The new area determination data is output to the area determination unit 2 for each observation period (S01).

The area determination unit 2 determines the scale of the thundercloud generated in the observation area, that is, the thundercloud area based on the area determination data output from the data integration processing unit 1. The area determination unit 2 determines the area. When the determination data is input, for example, the input VIL data is compared with a preset first reference value (threshold value for determining the precipitation area), and the VIL data of the VIL data determined to be the reference value or more is compared. The area is determined to be a precipitation area. Then, the echo top temperature data in the area determined to be the precipitation area is compared with a preset second reference value (threshold value for determining the thundercloud area), and the echo top temperature determined to be the reference value or less. The data area is determined to be the thundercloud area (S02). The determination result of the area determination unit 2 is output to the display processing unit 7 and used for the display data of the thundercloud area which is image-displayed on the display unit, and is also supplied to the tracking processing unit 3 and the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 in the subsequent stages. And is used as data for the tracking process and the ups and downs determination process (in the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5, for example, the ups and downs state can be determined from the extracted echo intensity data for the thundercloud region). Further, by adding an identification code or the like to the determined thundercloud region, even if a plurality of thunderclouds occur in the observation region, the movement prediction unit 4 and the extinction prediction unit 6 described later predict the movement for each thundercloud region. , Disappearance prediction is possible. In the description of the present embodiment, the determination of the thundercloud area is performed by V
Although it is assumed that the IL and the echo apex temperature are used, the thundercloud area can be defined by using other observation data, and the thundercloud area judgment is defined by using the observation data that can define such a thundercloud area. Just go.

Next, the operation of the movement prediction system (S03 to S0)
4) will be described. The tracking processing unit 3 performs identification / tracking processing using, for example, a tracking filter on the thundercloud area extracted from the determination result of the area determination unit 2, and the movement prediction unit 4 identifies / tracks from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3. It is intended to predict the moving direction of the thundercloud area and the moving position after a predetermined time has passed. First, in the tracking processing unit 3, a thundercloud center of gravity calculation process is performed for the thundercloud region extracted from the determination result of the region determination unit 2 to calculate a tracking reference point of the thundercloud region, and the tracking prediction point and the prediction prediction previously predicted. Correlation is determined by whether or not the distance to the point is within a threshold value. In addition, in order to improve the determination accuracy, correlation determination may be performed based on the degree of overlap of thundercloud shapes (patterns), but if the number of parameters increases, the determination process requires more time, so the thundercloud pattern It is determined whether or not to perform the correlation determination based on the degree of overlap. As a result of this correlation determination, when it is determined that there is no correlation, it is determined that the thundercloud area extracted this time is different from the thundercloud area extracted last time, and the tracking process for the thundercloud area is terminated,
If it is determined that there is a correlation, the thundercloud region extracted this time is determined to be the same thundercloud region as the previously extracted thundercloud region, and tracking processing for this thundercloud region is determined until there is no correlation. Is continued (S03).

The identification / tracking processing by the tracking processing unit 3 is performed every time the observation data of the weather radar 8 is obtained, and the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3 is the same as the observation cycle of the weather radar 8. (For example, if the observation cycle of the weather radar 8 is set to about 5 to 6 minutes, the tracking process for each thundercloud area will also be performed in a cycle of 5 to 6 minutes.) The moving position and the moving speed of the thundercloud area subjected to the tracking processing are calculated from the tracking processing result of No. 1, and the calculated moving position and the moving speed of the thundercloud area are used as the parameters of the moving prediction in the moving prediction unit 4 to be described later. Is supplied to each. Note that the extracted thundercloud areas are assigned identification codes, so even if multiple thundercloud areas are extracted, the tracking position and movement for each thundercloud area can be identified by identifying the tracking results based on the identification codes. The speed can be calculated.

The movement predicting unit 4 predicts the movement of the thundercloud area that has been tracked based on the moving position, the moving direction, the moving speed, etc. of the thundercloud area output from the tracking processing section 3 as described above (S04). . 4 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the observation cycle of the weather radar 8, the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3, the time predicted for movement by the movement prediction unit 4, and the like. As shown in FIG. While the tracking processing unit 3 repeats the above-described tracking processing at every time interval (tracking cycle) of time Tt corresponding to the observation cycle Tk of the weather radar, the movement prediction unit 4
Movement position a in the thundercloud area after a lapse of a predetermined time from the current observation point a0
The moving positions up to n (a1, a2, ... An) are predicted at the time interval Ti, for example. That is, in the identification / tracking processing of the tracking processing unit 3, every time observation data is obtained from the weather radar 8 or the like, the movement position of the thundercloud region after one cycle (about 5 to 6 minutes) ahead, which is a relatively close time, is determined. As to the prediction, the movement predicting unit 4 predicts the movement position of the thundercloud area until a considerably long time has elapsed (FIG. 4).
As shown in, by predicting the movement predicted time points of the movement prediction unit 4 for a plurality of time points, it is possible to recognize the movement time points for each relatively short time period. ).

Here, if the tracking cycle is set to be short, a large number of parameters for movement prediction can be obtained and the accuracy of the identification / tracking processing can be improved, but as described above, this tracking cycle Tt is meteorological. Since it corresponds to the observation cycle Tk of the radar 8, it is 5 from the relationship with the observation accuracy of the meteorological radar 8.
Minutes to 6 minutes. When the observation cycle is set as long as 8 to 10 minutes, the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3 is also about 8 to 10 minutes.

Further, the movement prediction of the thundercloud observation system according to the present invention predicts the movement position of only the thundercloud area in which the risk of lightning is high as in the conventional thundercloud observation system, that is, the thundercloud area already in the decline period. However, it is not necessary to display the result of thundercloud region extinction on the display part such as a monitor. (In particular, in the thundercloud observation system according to the second embodiment below, the extinction prediction or the lightning strike prediction of the thundercloud area observed from the ups and downs of the development period is performed.). Specifically, the tracking gate of the tracking process is calculated from the moving position, the moving speed, etc. of the thundercloud region calculated by the tracking processing unit 3 (these moving positions, moving speeds, etc. are obtained by repeating the tracking process several times). Similar to the above, a movement prediction range (gate) centered on the movement position predicted at each prediction time is created, and it is determined that the thundercloud area moves to any of the gates. This movement prediction gate indicates the probability that the predicted thundercloud area exists in the gate. For example, even if a gate with an existence probability of 85% is created, as shown in FIG. The gate has a wider gate range.

The result of the movement prediction unit 4 (for example, (1) thundercloud number to (5) thundercloud information shown in FIG. 5) is output to the display processing unit 7, and is monitored together with the prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6. Is appropriately displayed on the display unit such as. Note that, as described above, since the extracted thundercloud areas are provided with identification codes, even if movement prediction is performed for a plurality of thundercloud areas, each thundercloud area in the display processing unit 7 is similar to the tracking processing described above. It is possible to identify the movement prediction result for each area. Figure 4
Also shows the relationship between the observation cycle of the weather radar 8 and the determination cycle and prediction cycle of the annihilation prediction system, which will be described below, and will be appropriately used in the description of the operation of the annihilation prediction system.

Next, the operation of the annihilation prediction system, which is a feature of the present invention, will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 6 to 8 (S05 to S06). FIG. 6 is a block configuration diagram showing the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 in more detail, FIG. 7 is a block configuration diagram showing the extinction prediction unit 6 in more detail, and FIG. 8 is an arbitrary block generated by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of a rising / falling pattern showing a rising / falling pattern for a thundercloud area, and the disappearance prediction unit 6 of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment uses the rising / falling pattern of the thundercloud area as shown in FIG. (Determination of ups and downs until disappearance).

First, the ups and downs determination process (S05) will be described. The ups and downs pattern determining unit 5 determines ups and downs from the observation data for the thundercloud region extracted from the region determining unit 2, and the ups and downs pattern for the thundercloud region observed by the weather radar 8 from each of the ups and downs data obtained in time series. The ups and downs status determination unit 11 adds, for example, a predetermined weight to each observation data (echo intensity data, echo top temperature data, VIL data, etc.) for the thundercloud region obtained by the data integration processing unit 1. By performing the above, the ups and downs of the thundercloud region extracted from the region determination unit 2 is determined. The determination results of the ups and downs state determination unit 11 are output to the ups and downs pattern generation unit 12. The weighting may be determined and set according to the observation conditions of the thundercloud region, and may be automatically changed according to these observation conditions.

Next, in the ups and downs pattern determining section 12, the determination results of the ups and downs state determining section 11 are stored separately for each identification code, and a time series ups and downs pattern as shown in FIG. 6 is generated for each thundercloud region. To be done. As described above, each of the ups and downs data is calculated for each observation cycle of the weather radar 8 (see the relationship between the observation cycle Tk and the ups and downs judgment cycle Ts in FIG. 4), and the ups and downs pattern determination unit 12 The generated ups and downs pattern of the thundercloud region is composed of time series ups and downs data obtained for each observation cycle of the weather radar 8. The ups and downs pattern of the thundercloud area generated in this way is output to the extinction predicting unit 6 as a determination parameter for the extinction prediction of the thundercloud area as described later. Further, since the extracted thundercloud area is provided with an identification code, it is possible to identify the ups and downs patterns for each thundercloud area, and to correspond to the processing results of the tracking processing unit 3 and the movement prediction unit 4 described above. As described later, these processing results are integratedly processed by the display processing unit 7 and displayed on a display unit such as a monitor. It should be noted that the story of improving the prediction accuracy of the movement prediction of the thundercloud observation system by using the determination result of the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 for the processing of the tracking processing unit 3 or the movement prediction unit 4 will be described in detail in the description of other embodiments. explain.

Next, the operation of the disappearance predicting section 6 will be described (S06). The ups and downs pattern output from the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 can be identified by the identification code, and the extinction prediction for each thundercloud area is performed. Although several methods such as case retrieval can be used as the extinction prediction method, the extinction prediction unit 6 of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment uses the ups and downs pattern of the thundercloud region generated by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5. A description will be given of the one in which the ups and downs data of the decline period portion (hereinafter referred to as the decline period data) is extracted, and the extinction of the thundercloud region is predicted from the peak value of the decline period data, the slope of the data pattern, and the like. In addition, the prediction period of the movement prediction unit 4 can be set without limitation (a0 to an, n is a predetermined number), whereas the disappearance prediction period of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is calculated based on the rising and falling patterns. There is a point.

Explaining the rise and fall patterns in the thundercloud region shown in FIG. 8 as an example, in FIG. 8, the horizontal axis shows the time when each rise and fall data was obtained, and the vertical axis shows the rise and fall values, respectively, with the largest rise and fall values. A peak value is the rise and fall value at time Tp, and a period from the time Tp when the peak value of this rise and fall data is obtained to the time Tn when the latest rise and fall data is obtained is a so-called rise and fall period, and the rise and fall data obtained in this time zone. Then, the slope of the decline data is calculated from. In general, the term “decline” refers to a period during which the thundercloud region is declining, but in the present embodiment, the latest rise and fall data is obtained from the time Tp when the peak value of the rise and fall data is obtained for more accurate disappearance prediction. The time period up to the predetermined time Tn is the decline period.

First, the decay period detection unit 13 extracts the rise and fall data in the decay period portion from the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region generated by the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5 as described above. This decay period data may be extracted from the peak value of the ups and downs data to the latest ups and downs data. Then, the extinction determining unit 14 performs extrapolation processing of the rising and falling data based on the so-called falling period data detected by the falling period detecting unit 13, and from the time Tn when the latest rising and falling data is obtained, the thundercloud area is determined. Rise and fall data (rise and fall values) up to the time of disappearance are calculated respectively. As will be described later, since the time when the thundercloud region disappears is displayed on the movement trajectory of the thundercloud region predicted by the movement prediction unit 4, the rise and fall data of these thundercloud regions is at least the time when the movement prediction unit 4 predicts. The values in are calculated respectively. The extinction time Ts of the thundercloud region can be obtained by extrapolation of this rise and fall data (inserting the calculated rise and fall data into the sequence of rise and fall data obtained by actual observation to generate a rise and fall pattern until disappearance) It is possible to predict the time when the thundercloud area disappears and the time when the lightning strike occurs. The processing result of the disappearance predicting unit 6 (slope data, disappearance time point, etc.) is output to the display processing unit 7 in the same manner as the processing results of the area determination determining unit 2, the tracking processing unit 3, and the movement predicting unit 4 described above.

As a method of the extrapolation processing, an approximation calculation method such as a linear approximation method, a Gaussian curve or a Gaussian function approximation method may be used, and an appropriate approximation method depending on the number of data of so-called decay period data, slope, etc. Is appropriately selected and used. Further, the larger the number of data in the decline period, that is, the number of samplings for the extrapolation, the more accurately the ups and downs pattern until the extinction of the thundercloud region can be approximated, but as described above, the thundercloud observation in the present invention. In the system, the ups and downs determination cycle of the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5, that is, the cycle at which sampling data is obtained, corresponds to the observation cycle of the weather radar like the tracking cycle described above. Therefore, the ups and downs determination cycle of the ups and downs pattern determining section 5 is the same as the tracking cycle of the tracking processing section 3.
It is set appropriately in relation to the observation accuracy of the weather radar.

Finally, the processing contents of the display processing unit 7 will be further described with reference to FIGS. 9, 10 and 11 (S0).
7). FIG. 9 is a block configuration diagram showing a specific configuration of the display processing unit 7, and FIGS. 10 and 11 show the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment which is subjected to display processing by the display processing unit 7 and displayed on a display unit such as a monitor. It is a display example explanatory drawing which shows the image display example. The display processing unit 7 performs the above-mentioned processing steps S0.
The processing results of 1 to S06 are respectively input, display data for two-dimensional or three-dimensional display is generated from these, and a display image based on this display data is displayed on the display unit. S01 to S06) are not only integrated and displayed, but also a process (selection display) for switching the contents to be displayed on the display unit according to the processing result of the disappearance prediction unit 6, as described later.

In FIG. 9, reference numeral 15 is a reliability determination unit that determines the prediction reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6, and 16 is a display image according to the determination result of the reliability determination unit 15 on the display unit 17. A display data processing unit that performs processing for displaying. Also, in FIG. 10 and FIG.
Is the thundercloud area displayed on the display unit 17, and 19 is the tracking processing unit 3.
Is a movement locus of the thundercloud area indicating the movement path of the thundercloud area predicted by the movement prediction section 4 and the movement prediction position obtained by the movement prediction section 4 and the tracking in the movement path 19 up to now. The actual thundercloud observation position obtained by the processing unit 3 is displayed, and only the movement predicted position of the thundercloud region predicted by the movement prediction unit 4 is displayed on the movement track 19 from the present.

Further, FIG. 10 or FIG. 11 shows an example in which each movement prediction time point of the movement prediction section 4 is displayed in accordance with the tracking cycle of the tracking processing section 3. In the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, in addition to the thundercloud area 18 which is the determination result of the area determination unit 2 and the movement trajectory 19 which is the movement prediction result of the movement prediction unit 4, the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is used. The disappearance position or disappearance probability of a certain thundercloud area is also displayed. Here, the display example shown in FIG. 10 is a display example selected when the reliability determination unit 15 determines that the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is high as a result of the reliability determination. In this case, the display processing unit 7 displays the disappearance position of the thundercloud area predicted by the disappearance predicting unit 6 on the movement trajectory 19 of the corresponding thundercloud area, and makes the movement trajectory 19 after this disappearance position not be displayed. To do. Figure 1
At 0, 20 is predicted by the disappearance prediction unit 6 and is displayed on the display unit 17
Indicates the extinction position of the thundercloud area displayed above.

The display example shown in FIG. 11 is a display example selected when the reliability determination unit 15 determines that the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is low as a result of the reliability determination. Yes, in this case, the display processing unit 7 does not display the erasure position of the thundercloud area predicted by the annihilation prediction unit 6, but displays the annihilation probability of the thundercloud area at the annihilation position on the movement trajectory 19 of the corresponding thundercloud area. I do. In this way, displaying the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance predicting unit 6 with the disappearance probability means that the operator who is monitoring the thundercloud makes an erroneous determination based on the disappearance position of the thundercloud area predicted with low reliability. Is the extinction probability (5%, 30% in FIG. 9) of the relevant thundercloud region at each predicted movement position as shown in FIG.
Is displayed. ) Is displayed and it is better to let the operator judge the extinction position of the thundercloud area (as described above, the observation result of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is used for a lightning strike warning of electric power equipment, etc. , It is desirable that the extinction position of the observed thundercloud area be accurately determined.)

Next, the process of determining the disappearance prediction result in the reliability determination unit 15 will be described. As described above, the extinction prediction of the thundercloud region in the present embodiment is performed by the decline period detection unit 13
Since it is performed based on the rise and fall data in the decline period detected in, the reliability judgment of the disappearance prediction result in the case of performing such an disappearance prediction, for example, the number of data of rise and fall data in the detected decline period part It should be done based on. In general, more accurate approximation processing can be performed as the number of data items increases. Therefore, a threshold value for the number of data items (for example, this threshold value may be set based on past observation results). If the number of pieces of ups and downs data in the detected decline period exceeds the threshold value, it is determined that the prediction result of the thundercloud region extinction predicted based on the ups and downs data has high reliability. Then, if the number of pieces of ups and downs data is less than or equal to the threshold value, it is determined that the reliability is low.

As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display processing unit 7 first determines the reliability of the extinction prediction result, and the display image corresponding to the determination result is displayed on the display unit 17. It will be. Therefore, for example, the operator who is monitoring the thundercloud based on the display content displayed on the display unit 17 of the present thundercloud observation system can accurately recognize the movement state of the thundercloud and the disappearance state (disappearance position or disappearance probability). It is possible to realize more accurate thundercloud monitoring. The realization of accurate thundercloud monitoring by this operator eventually leads to more accurate lightning warning,
It is extremely effective in a thundercloud observation system applied to electric power facilities, etc. where it is required to avoid the occurrence of lightning strikes or accelerate accident recovery measures (as described above, it is possible to accurately predict the location of lightning strikes and the time zone, It is possible to realize an efficient thundercloud observation system, which is extremely useful for system operation and can prevent unnecessary switching of transmission line paths by eliminating false lightning warnings.)

In the above description, the display processing unit 7 automatically selects the display content to be displayed on the display unit according to the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6, but this display content The selection may be left to the judgment of the operator who is performing lightning strike monitoring, and a desired display example may be always displayed on the display unit regardless of the reliability of the disappearance prediction result. In this case, the operator who is monitoring the thundercloud may select the display content and set the processing content of the display processing unit 7 so as to display such a display image on the display unit. In addition, the display examples of the thundercloud observation results by this thundercloud observation system shown in FIGS. 10 and 11 are displayed only for the observation results of one thundercloud area. It is possible to observe a plurality of generated thunderclouds, respectively. When the plurality of thunderclouds are observed, the observation result of each thundercloud is displayed on the display unit 17 via the display processing unit 7, and the operator It is possible to predict lightning strikes for multiple thundercloud areas based on the displayed contents.

As described above, according to the thundercloud observation system of this embodiment, not only the movement prediction result of the thundercloud is displayed on the display unit, but the disappearance prediction result of the thundercloud is also displayed on the display unit. Therefore, it is possible to monitor thunderclouds more accurately according to the ups and downs of thunderclouds, and the operator judges that there is a thundercloud that has actually disappeared and does not exist, It is possible to prevent a false lightning warning. In addition, even if multiple thunderclouds occur in the observation area, it is possible to predict their movement and disappearance for each thundercloud, and to provide accurate thundercloud observation information to the operator who monitors thunderclouds. it can.

Embodiment 2. In the thundercloud observation system according to the above embodiment, as a method for predicting the disappearance of thunderclouds,
We used a method of extrapolating the rise and fall data until the thundercloud region disappears by performing processing such as linear approximation from the fall and rise data of the rise and fall patterns. If it is not accumulated, it is not possible to predict the extinction of the thundercloud area (in order to improve the reliability of the extinction prediction, the detected decline period is long and more extinction data is required.) It was not very effective at predicting. However, in an actual thundercloud observation system that provides warnings of lightning strikes, it is desirable that such warnings of lightning strikes be issued at an early stage in order to promptly avoid lightning strike damage, and early disappearance prediction can be realized. A system is desirable. In the present embodiment, a thundercloud observation system capable of realizing earlier disappearance prediction or lightning strike prediction will be described.

FIG. 12 is a block diagram specifically showing the extinction predicting unit of the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 12, the extinction predicting unit 6b in this embodiment is based on case retrieval. Then, the ups and downs situation or ups and downs pattern from the current observation time until the thundercloud region disappears is determined and generated. The overall configuration of the thundercloud observation system, the operation of each unit, and the like are the same as those shown in FIG. 1, and the description of the other components having the same reference numerals is omitted. That is, in the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment, the operation, function, etc. of the extinction predicting unit 6b are the same as those in the above embodiment. This is a specific difference from the thundercloud observation system of 1.

In FIG. 12, reference numeral 21 indicates actual disappearance information (corresponding to the observation data of the thundercloud region observed in the past, for example, echo intensity data, the rise / fall pattern data generated by the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5, etc.). For example, how many minutes after the peak value was obtained, it disappeared, etc.) together with a case database registered and accumulated in a case format as shown in FIG. 12, and 22 is various observation data about the extracted thundercloud region. Is registered in the case database and the case data having the observation data similar to these observation data is retrieved by searching the case database. Reference numeral 23 is a rise / fall pattern of the case data extracted by the case retrieval unit 22 ( Including the ups and downs data until disappearance), the extinction time of the thundercloud area, the extinction probability after a lapse of a predetermined time, etc. Calculated is extinguished state determination section for outputting to the display unit 7 as a disappearance prediction result.

Next, the specific processing contents of the disappearance predicting section 6b will be described with reference to FIG. The above embodiment.
As in the case of 1, the determination of the ups and downs situation and the ups and downs generation pattern are performed based on various parameters for the thundercloud region extracted from the region determination unit 2, that is, the observation data from the meteorological observation means. The above embodiment. In the thundercloud observation system according to No. 1, since the extinction is predicted from the decay period data of the rise and fall patterns, the rise and fall patterns of the thundercloud region must have at least the rise and fall data at the decline period as shown in FIG. In the thundercloud observation system by, the extinction prediction parameters (the ups and downs patterns indicating the ups and downs until the thundercloud area disappears) are extracted by case retrieval, and the extinctions of the thundercloud area extracted based on the extracted ups and downs pattern are predicted. Therefore, it is possible to predict the extinction of the thundercloud region from the ups and downs pattern having only the ups and downs data of the developmental period, and it is possible to realize the early location of the lightning strike and the time zone.

Specifically, when the observation data about the extracted thundercloud region is input to the extinction predicting unit 6b, the observation data input by the case searching unit 22 is first registered in the case database 21, and A search process is performed on the case database 21 based on the observation data. This case search processing is performed by searching the past case data registered in the case database 21 for case data having observation data similar to the input observation data. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 13, the case data is extracted in descending order of similarity. FIG. 13 shows past case data extracted by the case search unit 22, and in FIG. 13, the top four most similar case data among the past case data having the observation data similar to the input observation data are extracted. The situation is shown. In addition, each extracted case data also includes the thundercloud extinction information (disappearance time, extinction probability, etc.) as shown in FIG. For example, No. In the case of No. 3, the ups and downs data indicates that the thundercloud disappeared 10 minutes after the peak value of the ups and downs data was obtained, for example.

The search result of the case retrieval unit 22 is input to the disappearance prediction determination unit 23, and the disappearance prediction determination unit 23 deletes the disappearance information of each case data extracted by the case retrieval unit 22 (the rise and fall until disappearance). The disappearance time, disappearance probability, etc. of the input observation data are obtained based on the pattern). For example, when the disappearance time and the disappearance probability of the observed thundercloud area are calculated based on the case data as shown in FIG. 13, the disappearance probability of the observed thundercloud area after 5 minutes is 30%, and the disappearance probability after 15 minutes. Determines the extinction probability at each extinction prediction time point such as 75%, and from these results the extinction probability time point at which the extinction probability is greater than a certain threshold value is determined as the extinction time point of the observed thundercloud area (in this example Then, with the extinction probability of 90% as the threshold, the extinction probability of 95%
The extinction predicted time, that is, the extinction time after 15 minutes (see FIG. 13).
(Estimated thundercloud disappearance time). ).

The determination result (disappearance time, disappearance probability, etc.) of the disappearance determining unit 23 is output to the display processing unit 7, and the display processing unit 7 uses the above-described embodiment. The display process is performed as described in 1. The selection of the display content by the display processing unit 7 is performed based on the reliability of the disappearance determination result of the disappearance determining unit 23, but specifically, the similarity of the past case data extracted by the case searching unit 22 is used. If the degree (for example, the average value is compared) is a predetermined value or more, the disappearance time calculated based on the case data is determined to have high reliability, and a display image as shown in FIG. 10 is displayed, for example. If the similarity of the case data displayed on the display unit is less than or equal to a predetermined value, the disappearance time calculated based on the case data is determined to have low reliability, and the disappearance probability as shown in FIG. The display image to be displayed is displayed on the display unit. As mentioned above,
According to the present embodiment, the same effect as that of the above-described embodiment can be obtained, and since the extinction can be predicted based on the ups and downs data in the development period, the operator can realize early prediction of lightning strike. Note that the extinction prediction of the thundercloud region by the case search described in the present embodiment can be applied to the thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment, but the description thereof will be omitted in the following embodiments.

Embodiment. 3 Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 14 and 15. Although the thundercloud observation system according to the above-described embodiment uses the ups and downs of the thundercloud area determined by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 only for the extinction prediction in the extinction prediction unit 6, the thundercloud is a convective cloud. And such convective clouds simply do not move in the direction of the background wind,
There is a problem that the direction of movement depends on the ups and downs.Therefore, if the future movement position is predicted based only on the past movement history without considering the ups and downs, the thundercloud that was predicted to move However, there is a possibility that the movement of the thundercloud will be completely different from the movement direction of the thundercloud that has been tracked so far, and the movement prediction of the thundercloud will be made in a direction completely different from the actual movement direction of the thundercloud. Therefore, in this embodiment,
By reflecting the ups and downs of the thundercloud area determined by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 not only in the disappearance prediction of the extinction prediction unit but also in the movement prediction of the movement prediction unit, the prediction of the movement prediction is described in the above-described embodiment. This section describes a thundercloud observation system that can be realized with higher accuracy than the observation system.

FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment. In the present embodiment, the output of the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 is input to the disappearance prediction unit 6 and also to the movement prediction unit 4c. In FIG. 14, 4c is a movement prediction unit in the present embodiment, and the movement prediction unit 4c is a thundercloud observed from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3 and the ups and downs determination result of the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 corresponding to this tracking result. The movement is predicted for the area. Further, there is a relationship as shown in FIG. 15 between the ups and downs of the thundercloud region and the movement direction, and the movement prediction unit 4c predicts the movement direction of the thundercloud region based on the criteria shown in FIG. 13, for example. To do. FIG. 15 is a movement direction explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the ups and downs of a convective cloud and the movement direction.
According to the report, convective clouds such as thunderclouds tend to move to the right with respect to the direction of the average wind from the generation period to the development period, and to the left with respect to the direction of the average wind from the development period to the decline period. It can be seen that there is a tendency to move in the direction.

Therefore, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, such movement of the thundercloud region is input to the movement prediction unit 4c so that the movement prediction unit 4c uses the tracking result from the tracking processing unit 3 as a basis. The movement prediction result of the predicted movement of the thundercloud is corrected and output to the display processing unit 7. As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the movement prediction unit 4c observes not only the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3 but also the ups and downs state of the thundercloud region determined by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5. A thundercloud observation system that can predict movement of convective clouds, such as thunderclouds, whose movement direction changes according to the ups and downs of the thundercloud region, because it can predict the movement of the thundercloud region. Can be realized.

Embodiment. 4 Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 16 and 17. In the above embodiment, the thundercloud observation system for predicting the movement of the thundercloud area based on the ups and downs of the thundercloud area determined by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5 has been described.
The moving direction of the thundercloud area changes greatly depending on the ups and downs as shown in FIG. 15. In such a case where the moving direction of the thundercloud area changes abruptly, the tracking processing unit provided in the preceding stage. 3 causes a problem that tracking is lost. When the tracking processing unit 3 is out of tracking, the tracking processing unit 3 determines that the thundercloud area being tracked has disappeared in the middle of tracking or has moved to the outside of the observation area and ends the tracking processing. In such a case, even if the movement prediction unit 4 corrects the movement prediction of the thundercloud area based on the ups and downs of the thundercloud area, the tracking process itself ends, so the observed thundercloud area It is not possible to make an accurate movement prediction about.

As described above, when the thundercloud area that is still in the developing stage is lost during tracking, it is necessary to capture this thundercloud area again, but even if the lost thundercloud area is captured by the tracking processing again. Often the thundercloud area is already in decline,
The accuracy of the disappearance prediction is likely to deteriorate significantly. Therefore, in the present embodiment, tracking processing is performed based on the ups and downs state of the thundercloud area determined by the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5, so that tracking is less likely to occur in the thundercloud area tracking processing, and more accurate tracking is performed. This section describes a thundercloud observation system that enables processing and movement prediction processing.

FIG. 16 is a block diagram showing the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. In FIG.
Shows a movement prediction unit of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 16, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the ups and downs situation of the thundercloud area determined by the ups and downs pattern determining section 5 is input to the disappearance predicting section 6 and the tracking processing section 3d. There is. In the drawings, the same reference numerals denote the same or corresponding parts, and detailed description thereof will be omitted. That is, also in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the above embodiment. 1 or the above embodiment. The disappearance prediction as shown in FIG. 2 or display processing by the display processing unit 7 based on this disappearance prediction is performed, and the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is the same as that of the above-described embodiment. 1 or. This is a new addition of the function to improve the prediction accuracy of the movement prediction system to the Thundercloud observation system of 2.

FIG. 17 is a block diagram showing a concrete structure of the tracking prediction unit 3d. In FIG.
Reference numeral 5 is a tracking means selection section for inputting the ups and downs data indicating the ups and downs state of the thundercloud area output from the ups and downs pattern determination section 5, and selecting the optimum tracking means according to the ups and downs data, and 26 is from the tracking means selection section 25. Is a tracking means for performing the tracking processing for the thundercloud area extracted from the determination result of the area determination unit 2 by the tracking means selected on the basis of the instruction. As the tracking means to be selected, a plurality of different types of tracking filters may be prepared and the optimum one may be selected from these, or a tracking means for performing tracking processing by one tracking method is provided. The calculation conditions of this tracking means may be changed to be optimum conditions depending on the internal state of the thundercloud region, the extent of spread, the state of ups and downs, and the like. Types of tracking filters include α-β filters and Kalman filters. For example, in the case of tracking processing using Doppler data, a kalman filter is generally used, but in this case as well, the optimum one is selected in consideration of the internal state of the thundercloud region, the extent of spread and the state of ups and downs.

Next, the observation operation of the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment will be described. The thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment is also the same as the above embodiment. 1 or. Similar to 2, the determination results from the area determination unit 2 are input to the tracking processing unit 3 and the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5, respectively, and the movement prediction system processing (S03, S04) and the disappearance prediction system as illustrated in FIG. 3 are performed. The process (S05, S06) is performed in parallel. However, as described above, the tracking processing unit 3d of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is a tracking unit that performs the optimum tracking process of the thundercloud region based on the determination result of the ups and downs state of the thundercloud region from the ups and downs pattern determination unit 5. Select (correct the calculation condition of the tracking means),
The tracking process is performed on the thundercloud region extracted from the determination result of the region determination unit 2 by the selected (corrected) tracking means.

As described above, according to the thundercloud observation system of the present embodiment, the tracking processing is performed according to the ups and downs of the thundercloud area, so that the tracking of the thundercloud area that has not yet disappeared is not caused. The processing can be performed, and more accurate tracking processing, and more highly accurate movement prediction of the thundercloud region can be realized. In general, the direction of movement of the thundercloud region tends to move in the direction of the average wind during the generation period and the decline period as shown in FIG. 15, but in the development period the direction crosses the direction of the average wind. When performing a tracking process on a thundercloud region having such a tendency, it is desirable to perform a tracking process on the thundercloud region according to the ups and downs of the region.

Embodiment. 5 Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described. In the thundercloud observation system according to the above embodiment, for example, the embodiment.
As in the thundercloud observation system according to 1, the display processing unit 7 displays only the processing results of the area determination unit 2, the movement prediction unit 4, the disappearance prediction unit 6, and the like, and the display as illustrated in FIG. 10 or FIG. 11, for example. Although the image was displayed on the display unit 17, in general, a weather phenomenon such as a thundercloud is greatly affected by the topography on the moving course, and therefore, the extinction prediction of the thundercloud region based on the ups and downs pattern as described above is predicted. If there are relatively high mountains (specifically, mountain ranges, etc.) on the path of the thundercloud even after performing the above, the thundercloud, etc. will disappear before reaching the predicted extinction time. There will be situations where it will be stagnant or disappear due to the impact. Therefore, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, a thundercloud observation system that can realize more accurate thundercloud extinction prediction and thus lightning strike prediction by further considering topographical information will be described.

FIG. 18 is a block diagram showing the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. Reference numeral 27 denotes a map data storage unit (hereinafter referred to as map data storage unit) which stores topography / map information of the observation region. is there. The topographic / map data stored in the map data storage unit 27 is displayed by the display processing unit 7.
It is supplied to e and displayed on the display unit together with the observation result of the thundercloud as described later. In the drawings, the same reference numerals denote the same or corresponding parts, and detailed description thereof will be omitted. In addition, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is the same as that of the embodiment.
Although the thundercloud observation system according to No. 1 is described as an example, it may be provided in the thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment, and can be applied to the thundercloud observation system according to any of the embodiments (for these examples, Description is omitted.).

Next, the processing contents of the display processing unit 7 of the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment will be described. The above embodiment. Similar to the thundercloud observation system according to 1, the processing results of the area determination unit 2, the tracking processing unit 3, the movement prediction unit 4, and the disappearance prediction unit 6 are input to the display processing unit 7e, but in the present embodiment, Topography from the map data storage unit 27
The map data is supplied to the display processing unit 7e, and the display processing unit 7e
e performs display processing for displaying a topographic / map image on the display unit based on the supplied topographic / map data. For example, the embodiment. In Fig. 1, display processing is performed to display the display image as shown in Fig. 10 or 11 on the display unit 17, but in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display image as shown in Fig. 19, for example. Is displayed on the display unit.

FIG. 19 is a display example explanatory diagram showing a display example of the observation result of the thundercloud of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. In the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the topography of the observed thundercloud area The map information is displayed on the display unit 17 as a two-dimensional or three-dimensional display image as shown in FIG. As a result, the operator who is performing the thundercloud monitoring can recognize on the display unit 17 what position the actual thundercloud specifically passes through. For example,
Reference numeral 28 denotes topographical information (hereinafter referred to as mountain ranges) displayed on the display unit 17 based on the topographical / map data supplied from the map data storage unit 24. In the display example shown in FIG. Area 15 is a mountain range 2 after a predetermined time
The situation in which the appearance of passing 7 is predicted is displayed. As described above, in the display processing unit 7e of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the above-described embodiment. In addition to the display processing similar to that of the display processing unit 7 in 1, the display processing based on the map data supplied from the map data storage unit 27 is performed. As a result, a display image as shown in FIG. 19 is displayed on the display unit 17, for example. To be done.

Next, the specific processing contents of the display processing unit 7e will be described. That is, the display processing unit 7e is the disappearance prediction unit 6
It has a function of changing the extinction probability of the thundercloud area 15 predicted based on the topographical information displayed on the display unit 17. In the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the extinction prediction unit 6 predicts The disappearance probability is changed by the topography / map data supplied from the map data storage unit 27 and displayed on the display unit 17. For example, in the display example shown in FIG. 17, the display processing unit 7e causes the thundercloud region 15 whose movement is predicted to move on the movement trajectory 16 and cross the mountain range 27 as displayed on the display unit 17 in the thundercloud region 15. The disappearance probability of the thundercloud region 15 predicted to disappear from this judgment result is changed from the judgment result.

For example, when a meteorological phenomenon such as a thundercloud collides with the slope of a mountain during its movement, it causes rain on the slope of the collided mountain, and disappears or greatly declines when the mountain passes through it. It may happen. In the display processing unit 7e, since the scale of the thundercloud, the moving speed, the altitude of the mountain range passing therethrough, and the like can be obtained in advance, it is determined by these how much the thundercloud that passed through the mountain range 25 has changed its ups and downs. Thundercloud area after passing through the mountain range 25 based on
The disappearance probability of No. 5 is displayed on the display unit 17. In the display example shown in FIG. 19, the thundercloud region 15 that has passed through the mountain range 27 is determined to have an extinction probability of 90% or 95%.

As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display unit 1 also displays the observation result of the observed thundercloud and the observed topographical and map information around the thundercloud area.
7, the operator can recognize the specific position of the observed thundercloud on the map displayed on the display unit 17, and the displayed map Since the disappearance probability of the thundercloud area changed based on the information is displayed on the display unit 17, more accurate disappearance prediction can be realized. As a result, more accurate movement prediction can be realized without predicting the movement of the thundercloud that has already disappeared.

[0067]

According to the present invention, the extinction probability of the thundercloud area or the extinction probability until the extinction is displayed, and the extinction probability of the thundercloud area or the extinction probability until the extinction is displayed together with the result of the movement prediction of the thundercloud area. Therefore, the operator who monitors the thundercloud area can easily grasp the accurate movement position of the thundercloud area and the ups and downs of the thundercloud area for a relatively long time, and it is possible to prevent erroneous judgment such as the location of the lightning strike. It is possible to determine the place of lightning strike in the thundercloud area, the time zone, and the extinction point at an early stage.

According to another aspect of the invention, since the tracking processing is performed by using the tracking means according to the ups and downs of the thundercloud region, even when the moving direction of the thunderclouds area changes rapidly depending on the ups and downs of the thundercloud region. Tracking loss can be prevented,
It is possible to realize highly accurate movement prediction without losing sight of the thundercloud area during tracking.

[0069]

[0070]

[0071]

[0072]

[0073]

[0074]

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is an observation situation explanatory diagram showing an observation situation of a thundercloud by a weather radar device.

FIG. 3 is an operation flowchart showing the processing contents of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG.

4 is an explanatory diagram showing a time relationship such as a thundercloud observation period, a tracking period, and a movement prediction time of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG.

5 is a movement prediction processing explanatory diagram showing a movement prediction processing result of a thundercloud region of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1. FIG.

FIG. 6 is a block configuration diagram showing an example of a specific configuration of a rise / fall pattern determination unit.

FIG. 7 is a block configuration diagram showing an example of a specific configuration of an extinction prediction unit.

FIG. 8 is a rise / fall pattern explanatory diagram showing an example of a rise / fall pattern of a thundercloud generated by a rise / fall pattern determination unit.

FIG. 9 is a block configuration diagram showing an example of a specific configuration of a display processing unit.

10 is a display example explanatory diagram showing an image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1. FIG.

FIG. 11 is a display example explanatory diagram showing another image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1.

FIG. 12 is a block configuration diagram showing another specific configuration of the disappearance prediction unit.

FIG. 13 is a registration case explanatory diagram showing registration cases searched by the disappearance prediction unit shown in FIG. 12;

FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 15 is a movement direction explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the ups and downs of a convective cloud and the movement direction.

FIG. 16 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 17 is a block configuration diagram showing an example of a specific configuration of the tracking processing unit shown in FIG. 16.

FIG. 18 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 19 is a display example explanatory diagram showing an image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 18.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 Data integration processing unit 2 area determination section 3, 3d Tracking processing unit 4, 4c Movement prediction unit 5 Rise and fall pattern judgment part 6,6b Disappearance predictor 7, 7e Display processing unit 21 Case database 22 Case Search Section 23 Disappearance judgment section 24 Map data storage

─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continuation of the front page (72) Inventor Masayoshi Marunouchi 2-3-3, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Mitsubishi Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Kise Wakazakura 2-3-3 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Mitsubishi Electric Incorporated (72) Inventor Hiromori Nomura 2-6-2 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Mitsubishi Electric Engineering Co., Ltd. (56) Reference JP-A-8-122433 (JP, A) JP-A-9- 72965 (JP, A) JP-A-1-321393 (JP, A) JP-A-10-288674 (JP, A) JP-A-8-50181 (JP, A) JP-A-5-307080 (JP, A) JP-A-7-110379 (JP, A) JP-A-7-110378 (JP,) JP-A-10-268065 (JP, A) JP-A-7-43463 (JP, A) Patent 2774293 (JP, B2) Patent 3229566 (JP, B2) Sakura Sewaka, Masayoshi Kei, Kohei Nomoto, Yoshio Kosuge, “Lightning Prediction Method Using Case Search Using Multiple Sensor Data”, IEICE Technical Report, Japan, The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers of Japan, September 18, 1998, Volume 98, Issue 278, p. 1-7 Wakisakura Kise, Masayoshi Kei, Kohei Nomoto, Yoshio Kosuge, "Study on Lightning Detection Method Using Multiple Sensors", Proceedings of the 1998 Communication Society Conference of the Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers, Japan, The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers, September 7, 1998, TB-2-5, p. 609 Kimio Kurosawa, Takahiro Aoyama, Katsuyuki Takitani, “Lightning prediction system using online meteorological information and lightning location system data. Development ", The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, B, Japan, The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, March 20, 1996, Vol. 116-B, No. 4, p. 424-430 Atsushi Hamada, Kensuke Kawasaki, Takuya Kamano, Taku Anno, Shigeyuki Suzuki, “A Simple Lightning Prediction System Using Fuzzy Reasoning”, The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan B, Japan, The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, March 20, 1996. Sun, Vol. 116-B, No. 4, p. 403-409 (58) Fields surveyed (Int.Cl. ⁷ , DB name) G01W 1/00-1/18 G01S 13/00-13/95 JISST file (JOIS)

Claims (5)

(57) [Claims] 1. A determines the area determining unit thunder cloud area from the observed data of weather observation means and, motion estimation unit for predicting a movement position of the thunder cloud area by the area determination data of the thunder cloud area determined by the the area determination unit And the lightning of the area determination unit
A rise and fall pattern generation unit from the area determining data cloud area generating the rise and fall pattern of the thunder cloud area, outside the rise and fall pattern
Of the current thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit and the extinction prediction unit that predicts the extinction time of the thundercloud region by insertion processing.
The thunder which is the prediction result of the movement prediction unit together with the image shown.
The movement trajectory of the cloud area is the above predicted by the extinction prediction unit.
It is displayed until the extinction time, and the above thundercloud area after the extinction time
A thundercloud observation system, comprising: a display processing unit that hides a movement track . 2. A region determination unit that determines a thundercloud region from the observation data of the meteorological observation means, and a movement prediction unit that predicts the movement position of the thundercloud region based on the region determination data of the thundercloud region determined by this region determination unit. And the lightning of the area determination unit
A rise / fall pattern generator that generates rise / fall patterns of the above-mentioned thundercloud region from the region determination data of the cloud region, and a rise / fall pattern of the past thundercloud region.
Register the turn in the database, and in this database
Of the thundercloud area generated by the rise and fall pattern generator from
A rise and fall pattern similar to the rise and fall pattern is extracted, and this extraction pattern is extracted.
The above-mentioned rise and fall patterns based on the past rise and fall patterns issued
When the thundercloud area generated by the
An extinction prediction unit that predicts the extinction probability up to the point of extinction, and the above
Display image of the current thundercloud area determined by the area determination unit,
The movement trajectory of the thundercloud area, which is the prediction result of the movement prediction unit,
And disappearance of the thundercloud area predicted by the disappearance prediction unit
A thundercloud observation system , comprising: a display processing unit that displays each probability . 3. The display processing unit is provided for the area around the thundercloud area.
Display diagram information and change based on the map information
The thundercloud observation system according to claim 2, wherein the extinction probability of said thundercloud region is displayed . 4. The thundercloud area is determined from the observation data of the meteorological observation means.
The area determination section and the area determination section
Based on the area judgment data of the above thundercloud area, the rise and fall of the above thundercloud area
The rise and fall pattern generator that generates the pattern and this rise and fall pattern
The rise and fall data of the above thundercloud area of the turn generator is input,
Depending on the ups and downs of the thundercloud area, tracking means or performance of tracking means
The tracking means selection section for selecting the calculation condition and the tracking selection section
Using the tracking means selected or the calculation conditions of the tracking means
Tracking process of the thundercloud area determined by the area determination unit
And the tracking result of this tracking processing unit.
Lightning cloud observation system that is characterized in that a movement prediction unit for predicting a movement position of Luo the thunder cloud area. 5. The tracking means is a Kalman filter.
Thunder cloud observation system according to claim 4, characterized in that.