JP2009264943A - Lightning strike prediction device and lightning strike prediction method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To previously specify an object to be predictedly influenced by lightning strike by narrowing attention on thunder cloud predicted to cause the influence of voltage deterioration or the like due to lightening strike. <P>SOLUTION: A lightning strike prediction device 20 has: a zone setting means 21 for setting an object zone of a prescribed range including the object based on position information of the object (e. g. a substation); a thunder cloud specifying means 22 for specifying thunder cloud based on lightning strike information (e. g. a lightning strike position or the like) concerning lightning strike transmitted from LLS (lightning strike position locating system) 10; a moving direction prediction means 23 for predicting a moving direction of thunder cloud specified with the lightning strike specifying means 22 based on rain and cloud information (e. g. rain and cloud position or the like) concerning rain and cloud transmitted from a weather radar 11; and a lightning strike notifying means 26 for advising a possibility of lightning-striking on the object when rain and cloud information is more than a threshold by being moved in a direction of passing in the object zone set with the zone setting means 21 by thunder cloud predicted with the moving direction prediction means 23. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&amp;INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an apparatus and method for predicting lightning strikes on an object.

Conventionally, a technology has been disclosed that issues a warning when the total lightning probability exceeds the threshold after adding lightning probability to each line segment after approximating a line segment of a predetermined length or less about a line such as a transmission line. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1). In addition, a technique is disclosed in which when a lightning strike occurs frequently in a wide range, it is estimated (orientated) that a lightning strike has occurred on a steel tower support having a minimum distance from the lightning strike position (see, for example, Patent Document 2).
JP 2005-056279 A JP 2004-333453 A

  However, when the technique of Patent Document 1 is applied, since all the thunderclouds observed are targeted, there are many opportunities to issue a warning. Since there are many warnings unnecessary for the receiver who receives the warning, an important warning is buried in the receiver. Thus, the recipient's attention may be distracted and, as a result, important warnings may be missed.

  Moreover, even if the technique of Patent Document 2 is applied, it only specifies a tower support that is estimated to have been affected by a lightning strike that has already occurred. Therefore, it is not known which tower support is affected by lightning that is expected to occur in the future.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above points. The thundercloud is predicted to be affected by a voltage drop or the like due to a lightning strike, and an object that can be affected by the lightning strike is specified in advance and a forecast is made. It is an object of the present invention to provide a lightning strike forecasting apparatus and method.

(1) Means for solving the problem (hereinafter, simply referred to as “solution means”) 1 is a zone setting means for setting a target zone within a predetermined range including the target object based on position information of the target object. And thundercloud identification means for identifying thunderclouds based on lightning strike information about lightning sent from LLS (Lightning Location System), and the thundercloud identification means based on raincloud information about rain clouds sent from weather radar Moving direction predicting means for predicting the moving direction of the thundercloud, and the thundercloud predicted by the moving direction predicting means moves in a direction passing through the object zone set by the zone setting means, and the rain cloud The gist of the invention is that it has lightning strike notification means for notifying the object of a lightning strike when the information exceeds a threshold value.

The “target object” corresponds to a structure such as a transmission line, a steel tower, a power plant, a substation, a feeder line, or the like, a structure such as a building or a radio tower.
“Lightning strike information” is information provided from the LLS, and includes data such as a lightning strike position, a lightning strike occurrence time, a current value, and multiplicity.
“Rain cloud information” is information provided from a weather radar, and includes data such as rain cloud position, vertical accumulated water content, cloud top temperature, maximum rainfall intensity, strongest layer temperature, and convection area.
Here, LLS is, for example, “Lightning Location System” manufactured by Sankosha Co., Ltd. A system that assesses the location of lightning strikes based on the principle.

  According to the solution 1, when it is assumed that the thundercloud specified by the thundercloud specifying means moves along the movement direction predicted by the movement direction prediction means, whether or not it passes through the object zone set by the zone setting means. It is possible to identify in advance an object that can be affected by a lightning strike. In addition, since it is determined whether or not there is a possibility of lightning strikes on the object depending on whether or not rain cloud information exceeds a threshold value, it is possible to focus on thunderclouds that are expected to be affected by a voltage drop or the like. Therefore, when both conditions are satisfied, the lightning strike notification means notifies the possibility of being affected by a voltage drop or the like due to the lightning strike on the object, and makes a forecast.

(2) The solution means 2 is the lightning strike forecasting device described in the solution means 1, and has a voltage drop range calculation means for calculating a range in which the voltage drops below a reference value when a lightning strikes on an object. The gist of the lightning strike notification means is to notify a participant involved in an object within the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation means.

  According to Solution 2, since the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation unit may cause a situation in which the voltage drops below the reference value (including an instantaneous voltage drop), the lightning notification unit Notify participants in the range. Participants (for example, customers) who have received the notification can take preventive measures against voltage drop (for example, private power generation or operation stop).

(3) The solution means 3 is the lightning strike forecasting device described in the solution means 1 or 2, and based on a correlation between past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information, a boundary value indicating whether or not a lightning strike is to be made on an object. The gist of the invention is to have threshold setting means for setting a certain threshold.

  According to the solution means 3, the threshold value setting means automatically sets a threshold value (including updating; the same applies hereinafter) based on the correlation between past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information. As the lightning strike information and rain cloud information are accumulated, the accuracy of whether or not light strikes the target object increases, so that thunder clouds expected to be affected by a voltage drop or the like can be more accurately narrowed down.

(4) The solution means 4 is a lightning strike forecasting method, which sets an object zone in a predetermined range including the object based on the position information of the object, and strikes the lightning based on the lightning strike information about the lightning sent from the LLS A direction in which the thundercloud passes through the object zone, and the movement of the thundercloud is predicted based on raincloud information about the raincloud sent from a weather radar. If the rain cloud information exceeds a threshold value, the gist is to notify the possibility of a lightning strike on the object.

  According to the solution 4, when it is assumed that the identified thundercloud moves along the predicted moving direction, it is affected by the lightning strike by determining whether or not it passes through the preset object zone. The object to be obtained can be specified in advance. In addition, since it is determined whether or not there is a possibility of lightning strikes on the object depending on whether or not rain cloud information exceeds a threshold value, it is possible to focus on thunderclouds that are expected to be affected by a voltage drop or the like. Therefore, when both conditions are satisfied, a prediction is made by notifying the possibility of being affected by a voltage drop or the like due to a lightning strike on the object.

(5) The solution means 5 is the lightning forecast method described in the solution means 4, and calculates a range in which the voltage falls below a reference value when a lightning strikes on the object, and the object within the calculated range. The gist is to notify those who are involved in this.

  According to the solution 5, since there is a possibility that the calculated range may cause the voltage to fall below the reference value (including an instantaneous voltage drop), notification is made to the participants within the range. . The participant who has received the notification can take preventive measures against voltage drop (for example, private power generation or operation stoppage).

  According to the present invention, it is possible to narrow thunderclouds that are expected to be affected by voltage drop or the like due to lightning strikes. In addition, it is possible to make a prediction by specifying in advance an object that can be affected by a lightning strike.

The best mode for carrying out the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
In order to simplify the description, an example will be described in which a power transmission line and a substation are applied to the object, and a power receiver (that is, a person who receives power supply from the power transmission line) is applied to the participants.

  First, FIG. 1 shows a block diagram of a configuration example of the present invention. The lightning strike forecasting device 20 of FIG. 1 is mainly composed of a CPU, and includes a zone setting means 21, a thundercloud specifying means 22, a moving direction prediction means 23, a voltage drop range calculation means 24, a threshold setting means 25, a lightning strike notification means 26, and the like. Have

  The zone setting means 21 sets a target zone in a predetermined range including each of the power transmission line and the substation based on the position information of the power transmission line and the substation recorded in a recording device, a database, or the like. The setting method and range of the object zone are arbitrary. For example, a target object that is a straight line (actually a broken line shape through a steel tower) like a power transmission line is a rectangle having a width of a predetermined distance (for example, 3 to 8 [km]) around the target object. An object that targets a building, such as a substation, is a circle with a predetermined radius (for example, 5 [km], etc.) centered on the object.

The thundercloud specifying means 22 specifies a thundercloud based on lightning strike information related to lightning sent from the LLS 10. Lightning strike information includes, for example, data such as a lightning strike position, a lightning strike occurrence time, a current value, and multiplicity. Specifically, the thundercloud is narrowed down by referring to the position of the lightning strike, and narrowed down to the thundercloud that may be thundered to the transmission line or the substation by referring to the current value.
In addition to the above-described narrowing down, the mutual distance between the position information of the power transmission line and the substation recorded in the recording device, the database, etc. and the lightning strike position of the lightning strike information is obtained, and the mutual distance is a predetermined distance (for example, 10 [km] etc.) may be narrowed down to thunderclouds.

  The moving direction predicting unit 23 predicts the moving direction of the thundercloud specified by the thundercloud specifying unit 22 based on the rain cloud information about the rain cloud sent from the weather radar 11. The rain cloud information includes, for example, data such as rain cloud position, vertical accumulated water content, cloud top temperature, maximum rainfall intensity, strongest layer temperature, and convection area. Specifically, the moving direction and moving speed of the rain cloud are determined by observing the rain cloud position over time. Therefore, the moving direction of the thundercloud can be predicted by referring to the raincloud information for the thundercloud identified by the thundercloud identification means 22.

  The voltage drop range calculation means 24 calculates a range in which the voltage drops beyond a reference value when lightning strikes a transmission line or substation (hereinafter simply referred to as “voltage drop range”). In other words, when the voltage drop exceeds the reference value by calculating the voltage drop for the lower transmission line or electrical station bus that is electrically connected to the transmission line or substation by the instantaneous voltage drop analysis program (K method). Is included in the decline range. Note that since a known method can be used for calculating the voltage drop range, detailed description thereof is omitted below.

  The threshold setting unit 25 automatically sets a threshold based on the correlation between past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information recorded in a recording device, a database, or the like. The correlation corresponds to, for example, the relationship between lightning strikes and equipment failures. The threshold value is a boundary value indicating whether or not lightning strikes a transmission line or a substation, and is set for each data included in lightning strike information and rain cloud information. The timing for setting the threshold is arbitrary. For example, lightning strike information and rain cloud information acquired when a lightning strike occurs in a new transmission line or substation, and lightning strike information or rain cloud information obtained when a lightning strike has occurred in a transmission line or substation in the past. It is desirable to set a new threshold value together with the information.

  The lightning strike notification means 26 moves in the direction in which the thundercloud predicted by the movement direction prediction means 23 passes through the object zone set by the zone setting means 21 (and enters the object zone, etc.), and the rain cloud. If the information exceeds the threshold value, the possibility of lightning strikes to the transmission line or substation. Specifically, a notification is given to the participants 30 involved in the transmission lines and substations within the reduction range calculated by the voltage reduction range calculation means 24. The notification method is arbitrary. For example, a method of sending mail to a pre-registered mail address, a method of calling to a pre-registered telephone number, and providing voice guidance are applicable.

  An example of processing executed in the lightning strike forecasting apparatus 20 configured as described above will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a procedure example of lightning forecast processing. The lightning strike forecasting process is a procedure for forecasting lightning strikes to the participant 30 and is repeatedly executed regardless of whether it is periodic or non-periodic. FIG. 3 is a plan view showing the moving direction of the thundercloud and the object zone. FIG. 4 shows an example of the calculated voltage drop range.

  In FIG. 2, first, based on the position information of the power transmission line and the substation recorded in the recording device, database, etc., a predetermined range of object zones each including the power transmission line and the substation is set [in the zone setting means 21 Equivalent; step S10]. Once this step is set, there is no need to execute it unless there is a change in position information, new establishment or abolition.

  In the installation example shown in FIG. 3, the transmission line L1 is installed between the substation T1, the transmission line L2 is installed between the substation T1 and the substation T2, and the transmission line L3 is connected from the substation T2. Is built. The transmission lines L1, L2, and L3 in this example set object zones Z1, Z3, and Z5 each having a width of a distance x (for example, 3 to 8 [km]). In addition, the substations T1 and T2 set object zones Z2 and Z4 each consisting of a circle having a radius r (for example, 5 [km], etc.) centered on the substation.

  Returning to FIG. 2, after setting the object zone, lightning strike information sent from the LLS 10 is acquired and recorded in a recording device, database, etc. [step S11], and a thundercloud is identified based on the obtained lightning strike information [ Corresponding to thundercloud specifying means 22; step S12]. If the thundercloud cannot be identified because the weather is fine (NO in step S12), no lightning strikes occur, and the lightning forecast process is returned as it is. Therefore, the threshold value does not change.

  On the other hand, if a thundercloud can be identified (YES in step S12), rain cloud information sent from the weather radar 11 is acquired and recorded in a recording device, database, etc. [step S13], and step S12 is performed based on the acquired rain cloud information. The movement direction of the thundercloud identified in step 1 is predicted [corresponding to the movement direction prediction means 23; step S14].

  It is assumed that step S12 has been executed to identify, for example, thunderclouds V1 and V2 shown in FIG. In step S14, for example, the moving direction (any one of arrows D1 to D8 in this example) is predicted for thundercloud V1. As is clear from FIG. 3, it can be predicted that the thundercloud V1 passes through the object zone Z3 when the moving direction of the thundercloud is directions D4, D5, and D6, as is clear from the relationship between the thundercloud V1 and the transmission line L2.

  Returning to FIG. 2 again, the moving direction of the thundercloud predicted in step S14 passes through one of the object zones set in step S10 (YES in step S14), and all the data of the rain cloud information acquired in step S13 are all. If the corresponding threshold value is exceeded (YES in step S15), the voltage drop range is calculated based on the system information obtained from the operation plan support system or the like, the position information of the transmission line, etc. [in the voltage drop range calculation means 24 Equivalent; step S16]. An example of the calculated voltage drop range is represented by a broken line in FIG.

FIG. 4 is an example in which the lightning strike from the thundercloud V10 affects the transmission line L12, and there is a possibility that a situation (including an instantaneous voltage drop) occurs when the power receiver falls below the reference value. The range predicted to be present is represented by a broken line. Specifically, the voltage drops not only at the substations T11 and T12 connected to the transmission line L12 but also at the substations T14, T15, T16, and T17 via the transmission lines L13, L15, and L16 connected to the substation T12. Affected. Therefore, as a whole of the voltage drop range A, it is necessary to forecast a lightning strike to all the power receivers that receive power supply from the transmission lines L14, L15, L16, L17, L18, L19, and L20.
Each power receiver is represented by a black circle “●”, each power receiver within the voltage drop range A represented by a broken line is a participant 30, and each power receiver outside the voltage drop range A is a non-participant 31. The voltage of each transmission line in this example is, for example, 500 [kV] for the transmission line L10, 275 [kV] for the transmission lines L11, L12, and L13, 154 [kV] for the transmission lines L15 and L16, and the transmission lines L14 and L17. , L18, L19, L20, and L21 are 77 [kV].

  Returning again to FIG. 2, the power receivers (participants 30) in the voltage drop range A as shown in FIG. 4 are notified of lightning strikes (corresponding to the lightning notification means 26; step S17). The notification method is arbitrary. For example, a method of sending an email to a mail address registered in advance for each participant 30, a method of performing voice guidance by calling a phone number registered in advance for each participant 30 (including answering machine registration), Or the method etc. which mix and alert | report these are applicable.

  On the other hand, if the predicted thundercloud movement direction does not pass through one of the object zones (NO in step S14), or if at least one of the raincloud information does not reach the threshold value (in step S15). NO), the process proceeds to step S18. Then, when other target zones that may be in the predicted thundercloud movement direction remain in the target zones set in step S10 (YES in step S18), steps S13 to S17 are repeated. In the example of FIG. 3, since the thundercloud V1 has been predicted and predicted, the same is done for the thundercloud V2.

  If there is no other object zone to which the thundercloud may move in step S18 (NO), the process branches depending on whether or not there is an influence on the transmission line [step S19]. That is, when there is an influence on the power transmission line (YES), a threshold value is set (or updated) based on the lightning strike information acquired in Step S11 [Step S20], and the lightning strike forecast process is returned. On the other hand, when there is no influence on the power transmission line in step S19 (NO), it is not necessary to set (or update) the threshold value, so the lightning forecast process is returned as it is.

According to the embodiment described above, the following effects can be obtained.
(1) Whether or not the thundercloud identified by the thundercloud identifying means 22 passes through the object zone set by the zone setting means 21 when it is assumed that the thundercloud moves along the movement direction predicted by the movement direction prediction means 23 (See steps S10 to S14 in FIG. 2), it is possible to specify in advance an object that can be affected by a lightning strike. In addition, since it is determined whether or not there is a possibility of lightning strike on the object depending on whether or not the rain cloud information exceeds the threshold value (see step S15 in FIG. 2), it is affected by a voltage drop or the like in real time. It can be narrowed down to the expected thundercloud. Therefore, when both conditions are satisfied, the lightning strike notification means 26 notifies the possibility of being affected by a voltage drop or the like due to the lightning strike on the object, and makes a prediction (see steps S16 and S17 in FIG. 2).

(2) Since the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation unit 24 may cause a situation where the voltage drops below the reference value, the lightning strike notification unit 26 notifies the participants 30 within the range. (See steps S16 and S17 in FIG. 2). The participant 30 who has received the notification (the power receiver represented by a black circle in the example of FIG. 4) can take preventive measures against voltage drop (for example, private power generation or operation stop).

(3) The threshold value setting means 25 automatically sets a threshold value based on the correlation between past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information (see step S19 in FIG. 2). As lightning strike information and rain cloud information are accumulated, the accuracy of whether lightning strikes on an object (in the example of FIG. 2, substations T1, T2 and transmission lines L1, L2, L3) increases. Thunderclouds that are expected to be affected by a drop or the like can be narrowed down more accurately.

[Other Embodiments]
Although the best mode for carrying out the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to this mode. In other words, various forms can be implemented without departing from the scope of the present invention. For example, the following forms may be realized.

(1) In embodiment mentioned above, the target object affected by a lightning strike was applied to the substation and the power transmission line (refer FIG. 3, FIG. 4). Instead of (or in addition to) this form, the object may be a steel tower, power plant, feeder, etc. (ie, a structure installed to supply power), buildings, radio towers, golf courses, beaches, etc. It may be a leisure facility. Even when these are targeted, the same effect as the above-described embodiment can be obtained. In addition, it is desirable to set the shape and size of the object zone according to the form of the object. In this case, the participant 30 is not limited to the power receiver.

(2) In the embodiment described above, the transmission line L2 connecting the substation T1 and the substation T2 and the other transmission lines L1, L3 are approximated in a straight line between the substations as shown in FIG. And set the object zone. Actually, there are few cases where transmission lines installed between substations are linear, and they are often broken by steel towers installed between substations. Therefore, it may be configured to set the object zone similar to the above-described embodiment by regarding each transmission line installed between steel towers as one independent transmission line. By so doing, it is possible to notify and forecast the possibility of being affected by a voltage drop or the like due to a lightning strike on an object in accordance with the actual situation.

(3) In the embodiment described above, when the thundercloud advances according to the moving direction of the thundercloud predicted by the moving direction predicting unit 23 in predicting whether or not a lightning strike will occur, the target set by the zone setting unit 21 It was determined whether or not the product zone was passed (see steps S12 and S14 in FIG. 2). Instead of (or in addition to) this form, the object zone is expanded over a wider range (for example, the predetermined distance of the object zones Z1, Z3, Z5 with respect to the transmission lines L1, L2, L3 in FIG. For example, it may be configured to determine whether or not the vehicle has entered the object zone set by the zone setting unit 21. In this case, since the moving direction predicting means 23 is not necessary, the configuration becomes simple and the prediction can be performed quickly.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, one object zone is set for one object. That is, in the example of FIG. 3, the object zone Z1 is set for the transmission line L1, the object zone Z2 is set for the substation T1, and the object zone Z5 is set for the transmission line L3. . Instead of this form, a plurality of object zones may be set for one object, or one object zone may be set for a plurality of objects. For example, the former sets multiple target zones according to the lightning strike probability, which indicates the ease of lightning strikes, and the latter sets one target for objects set within a predetermined distance (for example, a circle with a radius of 5 [km]). Treat as a thing. According to the former configuration, it is possible to make a prediction including a lightning strike probability, and according to the latter configuration, it is possible to reduce the judgment as to whether or not a thundercloud passes through the object zone, thereby improving the overall processing speed.

(5) In the above-described embodiment, when each data of lightning strike information and rain cloud information is higher or lower than a corresponding threshold value, each data of lightning strike information and rain cloud information is updated as a corresponding threshold value (FIG. 2 (see step S19). Instead of this form, the threshold value may be set or updated according to other correlations based on past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information. Other correlations include, for example, simple average, weighted average, and linear approximation. By setting or updating a threshold based on a correlation closer to the actual situation among various correlations, more accurate forecasting can be performed.

(6) In the above-described embodiment, lightning strike information sent from the LLS 10 is used (see FIG. 1). Instead of this form, lightning strike information sent from a lightning strike location system (LPATS) or a lightning discharge point location system (SAFIR) may be used. Since these LPATS and SAFIR can be observed up to inter-cloud discharge, it is possible to capture rain clouds that have not yet reached ground discharge as thunderclouds. The thundercloud captured in this way can identify an object affected by the voltage drop from the movement direction predicted by the movement direction prediction unit 23, and forecasts the participants 30 within the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation unit 24. It can be carried out.

(7) In the above-described embodiment, lightning strike information sent from the LLS 10 is required (see FIG. 1). Instead of this form, a configuration may be adopted in which the thundercloud specifying means 22 is eliminated and the lightning information is not acquired and the forecast is made. For example, the rain cloud information sent from the weather radar 11 includes data such as the vertical accumulated water amount, cloud top temperature, strongest layer temperature, convection area, and the like, and can be regarded as thunderclouds from these data. The thundercloud captured in this way can identify an object affected by the voltage drop from the movement direction predicted by the movement direction prediction unit 23, and forecasts the participants 30 within the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation unit 24. It can be carried out.

It is a block diagram showing typically the example of composition of the present invention. It is a flowchart showing an example of a lightning strike forecast process. It is a top view explaining the moving direction of a thundercloud and an object zone. It is a figure showing an example of the calculated voltage fall range.

Explanation of symbols

10 LLS (lightning strike location system)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 11 Weather radar 20 Lightning strike forecasting device 21 Zone setting means 22 Thundercloud specification means 23 Movement direction prediction means 24 Voltage drop range calculation means 25 Threshold setting means 26 Lightning strike notification means 30 Participants 31 Non-participants V1, V2, V10 Thundercloud L1 , L2, L3, L10, L11, L12, L13, L14, L15, L16, L17, L18, L19, L20, L21 Transmission line (object)
T1, T2, T3, T10, T11, T12, T13, T14, T15, T16, T17, T18 Substation (object)

Claims (5)

Zone setting means for setting a target zone of a predetermined range including the target object based on position information of the target object;
A thundercloud identifying means for identifying a thundercloud based on lightning strike information about a lightning strike sent from the LLS;
A moving direction predicting means for predicting the moving direction of the thundercloud specified by the thundercloud specifying means based on rain cloud information about the rain cloud sent from the weather radar;
When the thundercloud predicted by the moving direction prediction means moves in the direction passing through the object zone set by the zone setting means and the rain cloud information exceeds a threshold value, A lightning strike forecasting device comprising lightning strike notification means for notifying the possibility of lightning strike. The lightning strike forecasting device according to claim 1,
A voltage drop range calculation means for calculating a range in which the voltage drops below a reference value when a lightning strikes the object;
The lightning strike forecasting device is a lightning strike forecasting device for reporting to a participant involved in an object within the range calculated by the voltage drop range calculation unit. A lightning strike forecasting device according to claim 1 or 2,
A lightning strike forecasting device comprising threshold setting means for setting a threshold value which is a boundary value of whether or not a lightning strike is to be made on an object based on correlation between past lightning strike information and past rain cloud information. Based on the position information of the target object, a predetermined range of the target object zone including the target object is set,
Based on lightning strike information sent from LLS, identify thunderclouds that may cause lightning strikes,
Based on rain cloud information about rain clouds sent from weather radar, predict the movement of the identified thunderclouds,
A lightning strike forecasting method for notifying the possibility of lightning strikes on the object when the predicted thundercloud moves in a direction passing through the object zone and the rain cloud information exceeds a threshold value. A lightning strike forecast method according to claim 4,
Calculate the range where the voltage drops below the reference value when a lightning strikes the target,
A lightning forecast method for notifying a person involved in an object within the calculated range.

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