JP2005269865A - Instantaneous voltage drop predicting system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an instantaneous voltage drop predicting system capable of speedily notifying a customer of absolutely necessary information on an instantaneous voltage drop using simple equipment. <P>SOLUTION: This instantaneous voltage drop predicting system comprises a lightning prediction acquiring device 110; a power supply information managing device 130; and an instantaneous voltage drop predicting device 140. The thunder prediction acquiring device 110 for acquires lightning predicting information 10 including a lightning predicted region from the outside. The power supply information managing device 130 produces power supply information for specifying a power system and equipment for each customer as a power feed destination from a customer information 32 and a power system information 31. From the lightning predicting information 10, acquired by the lightning prediction acquiring device 110 and the power system information 31, the instantaneous voltage drop predicting device 140 selects a target power system and equipment, to which the effect of a thunderbolt is predicted and predicts the instantaneous voltage drop to a target customer, to which power is supplied via the target power system and equipment. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to an instantaneous voltage decrease prediction system that predicts an instantaneous voltage decrease in which a received voltage instantaneously decreases due to a lightning strike or the like, and predicts a specific customer as a power supply destination as necessary.

  For example, when a lightning strike occurs in or near a transmission line, transmission line tower, etc., a large failure current flows through the transmission line, so the power transmission facility detects this failure current and isolates the failure section to prevent a power failure. doing. It is known that a so-called instantaneous voltage drop (hereinafter also referred to as a momentary drop) occurs in a very short time from the occurrence of a lightning strike to the disconnection of a failure section, although the power supply does not result in a power outage, but the voltage drops instantaneously. ing. Such a momentary voltage drop is a problem that is not noticeable to humans because the voltage drops and recovers again in a short time, but it is a serious problem for electronic devices that are sensitive to voltage. For example, the production line stops. May cause problems such as.

  Therefore, in order to solve the problem associated with such an instantaneous voltage drop, for example, the instantaneous voltage drop probability for calculating the instantaneous voltage drop of a transmission line facility or an electronic factory from the weather data, the past lightning strike data, and the past instantaneous voltage drop data, for example. A voltage drop prediction system has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). In this instantaneous voltage drop prediction system, the calculated instantaneous voltage drop probability is delivered to the customer at the desired level, and the ranking of power transmission facilities in areas with high lightning strike risk and the same long-distance power transmission facilities Can rank accidents for each transmission line section. On the other hand, on the customer side, according to the received instantaneous voltage drop probability and ranking, for example, by taking pre-measures such as rearranging the production line and switching the power supply to in-house power generation, the disadvantage due to the instantaneous voltage drop is avoided. be able to.

  However, the above-described instantaneous voltage drop prediction system calculates the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the power receiving destination using past instantaneous voltage drop data, and has a problem that an advanced simulation program is required. Therefore, although high-quality information can be provided to the electric power user, there are problems that it takes time until prediction and the cost to provide increases.

JP 2003-90887 A (Claims)

  In view of such circumstances, it is an object of the present invention to provide an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system capable of promptly notifying a customer of minimum necessary information regarding an instantaneous voltage drop with simple equipment. .

  The first aspect of the present invention that solves the above-described problems is a lightning prediction acquisition unit that acquires lightning prediction information including a lightning prediction region from the outside, customer information that is a power supply destination, and power system information for each customer. Power supply information management means for creating power supply information specifying a power system and equipment, a target power system for which the effect of lightning is predicted from the lightning prediction information acquired by the lightning prediction acquisition means and the power system information, and An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system characterized by comprising an instantaneous voltage drop prediction means for selecting a facility and predicting an instantaneous voltage drop for a target customer who is fed through the target power system and the facility.

  In the first aspect, the lightning prediction area is identified from the lightning prediction area and the power supply information, and the power supply that may affect the lightning is received, and the power supply is received through the power system and equipment. By specifying a customer, it is possible to predict the possibility of an instantaneous voltage drop for the target customer very easily.

  According to a second aspect of the present invention, in the first aspect, the lightning prediction area is a section unit divided into a mesh shape, and the power supply information management unit divides the power supply information for each section. In the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system, a database that can identify the target customer connected to the target power system and equipment existing in the partition by selecting a predetermined section is provided.

  According to the second aspect, the target customer or facility for which the impact of lightning is predicted is extremely easily identified by holding a database that classifies and manages power supply information in combination with the sections of the lightning prediction area. Can do.

  According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the first or second aspect, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction means predicts the instantaneous voltage drop in consideration of the actual lightning intensity and frequency together with the lightning prediction information. The present invention is an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system.

  In the third aspect, the instantaneous voltage drop predicting means predicts the possibility of lightning in light of the lightning prediction area in consideration of the actual lightning intensity and frequency. The reliability of prediction can be improved.

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the third aspect, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction means can reduce the instantaneous voltage in consideration of the lightning strike intensity and the insulation strength of the transmission line in the expected lightning strike area. The present invention is in an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system characterized by predicting the characteristics.

  In the fourth aspect, the reliability of the prediction of the instantaneous voltage drop can be further improved by considering the insulation strength of the transmission line together with the lightning possibility and the lightning intensity.

  According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, there is provided the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to any one of the first to fourth aspects, wherein the possibility of the instantaneous voltage drop is predicted by classifying into at least three stages. is there.

  In the fifth aspect, by predicting the possibility of lightning and the intensity of lightning, the possibility of instantaneous voltage drop can be classified into at least three stages, respectively, so that it can be predicted relatively easily and quickly. .

  According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, in any one of the first to fifth aspects, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction means predicts the degree of the instantaneous voltage drop together with the possibility of the instantaneous voltage drop. In the voltage drop prediction system.

  In the sixth aspect, it is possible to improve the content of the forecast information by predicting the degree of instantaneous voltage drop and the degree thereof.

  According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, in the sixth aspect, the degree of the instantaneous voltage drop is classified into at least three stages in consideration of the length of the power system from the lightning prediction area to the target customer. It is in the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system characterized by predicting by the above.

  In the seventh aspect, the degree of instantaneous voltage drop is classified into at least three stages in consideration of the length of the power system, so that it can be predicted relatively easily and quickly.

  According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, in any one of the first to seventh aspects, there is further provided an instantaneous voltage drop forecasting unit for forecasting to the target customer based on the prediction of the instantaneous voltage drop forecasting unit. It is in the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system.

  In the eighth aspect, the possibility of instantaneous voltage drop can be predicted to the target customer to notify the possibility of instantaneous voltage drop, and damage to the target customer can be reduced.

  According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, in the eighth aspect, the instantaneous voltage drop forecasting means includes a forecast for the target customer together with information on the position of the target customer and the lightning predicted area indicated on the map. An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system is characterized by notifying.

  In the ninth aspect, the customer who has received the forecast can visually grasp his / her position with respect to the lightning predicted area.

  According to a tenth aspect of the present invention, in any one of the first to ninth aspects, the power system information includes the latest information regarding connection or disconnection of a circuit breaker installed in the power system. It is in the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system.

  In this 10th aspect, since it estimates based on the newest information of a circuit breaker, an unnecessary forecast is not alert | reported.

  According to an eleventh aspect of the present invention, in the tenth aspect, the forecast notified to the target customer by the instantaneous voltage drop forecasting means is sent to a circuit breaker management unit that manages connection or circuit breaker connection in the power system. In the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system, the circuit breaker connection or circuit breaker information transmitted and based on the forecast is included in the latest information on the circuit breaker.

  In the eleventh aspect, even when the circuit breaker is changed according to the forecast of the instantaneous voltage drop, the information is fed back, and an unnecessary forecast is not notified.

  According to the present invention, it is very easy to identify a power system that may affect lightning from the lightning prediction information and power supply information and a customer who is receiving power supply through the power system. It is possible to predict the possibility of instantaneous voltage drop for the target customer and to provide a forecast if necessary. In addition, the instantaneous drop prediction means predicts the lightning intensity by considering the actual lightning intensity along with the lightning prediction information. It is possible to provide simply and quickly without performing the above.

  The present invention will be described in detail below based on the best mode for carrying out the present invention.

  FIG. 1 conceptually shows an example of an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system of the present invention includes an instantaneous voltage drop prediction server 100 for notifying a specific customer in a power supply state of an instantaneous voltage drop (also referred to as an instantaneous voltage drop) prediction that the received voltage instantaneously drops due to a lightning strike or the like. To do.

  In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 1, the instantaneous drop prediction server 100 obtains lightning prediction information 10 from the outside such as a meteorological association and also obtains lightning information 21 from a lightning location locating device 20. Prediction acquisition means 110 is provided. Moreover, the power supply information management means for acquiring the power system information 31 and the customer information 32 from the power supply information collection and distribution device 30 that manages the power system information corresponding to the customer as the power transmission destination, and creating a predetermined database 120 from these information 130. Furthermore, a target customer that may cause an instantaneous voltage drop is identified from the lightning prediction information 10 and the lightning strike information 21 acquired by the lightning prediction acquisition means 110 and the power system information 31 and customer information 32 from the database 120. Instantaneous voltage drop predicting means 140 and instantaneous voltage drop predicting means 150 for forecasting the instantaneous voltage drop for the target customer predicted by the instantaneous voltage drop predicting means 140 are provided. Note that the instantaneous voltage drop prediction unit 150 predicts an instantaneous voltage drop to a specific customer among the customers A to X via the Internet 40.

  The lightning strike location device (LLS) 20 detects lightning strike information including, for example, lightning strike points (latitude / longitude), lightning strike intensity, lightning strike frequency, and the like, and the lightning strike information 21 is simultaneously transmitted to the meteorological association. The weather association makes a lightning prediction based on such lightning strike information and weather information, and transmits the lightning prediction information 10. Here, the lightning prediction information 10 includes a lightning prediction area predicted for each section divided in advance into a mesh-shaped predetermined area, thereby identifying a section where lightning is predicted. Is done.

  Further, the lightning prediction acquisition unit 110 acquires the lightning prediction information 10 and the lightning strike information 21 from the lightning position locating device 20 and sends them to the instantaneous voltage drop prediction unit (also referred to as the instantaneous voltage drop prediction unit) 140.

  On the other hand, the power supply information management unit 130 sends power supply information 31 such as a power transmission line and circuit breaker connection system from the power supply information collection and distribution device 30 and customer information 32 regarding where each customer is located in the power system information 31. And the database 120 is constructed using this as information for each partition unit. That is, for example, when a specific section where lightning is predicted is selected, the database 120 easily extracts equipment and customers such as a power system related to the specific section and a circuit breaker connected thereto. Can be specified. Moreover, you may make it have the length information of the power transmission line to each customer. Here, the length may be the actual length of the transmission line, but the length may be ranked according to the step-down stage between the specific area and the customer. Therefore, if a lightning prediction area is specified, a customer who may experience a voltage drop can be specified, and a customer who is supplying power via a facility where a voltage drop is predicted can be specified.

  The voltage drop prediction unit 140 determines a lightning prediction point from the lightning prediction information 10 and the lightning strike information 21 acquired from the lightning prediction acquisition unit 110. This lightning forecasting point is performed in units of the above-described sections. In this case, the lightning prediction region included in the lightning prediction information may be used as the lightning prediction point as it is, but may be determined in consideration of the subsequent lightning information 21 together with the lightning prediction region. In addition, when the lightning prediction area is determined in consideration of the lightning prediction area and the lightning strike information 21, the insulation strength of the transmission line in the lightning prediction area and the frequency and intensity of the lightning strike in the lightning strike information 21 are taken into account. If the insulation strength is sufficiently high, the lightning prediction point is not used, but if the insulation strength is low, the lightning prediction point may be determined.

  After determining the lightning prediction point, the voltage drop prediction unit 140 searches the database 120 to identify customers and facilities that may have a voltage drop when a lightning strike occurs at the lightning prediction point. Here, if the lightning prediction point is predicted for a predetermined time, for example, every predetermined elapsed time, the instantaneous drop can also be predicted every predetermined time. For example, in this embodiment, the determination is made. Based on the predicted thunderstorm point, every hour, the instantaneous drop prediction is predicted up to 3 hours ahead.

  The instantaneous voltage drop prediction unit (also referred to as a sag forecast unit) 150 transmits the forecast result of the sag forecast unit 140, that is, the sag forecast for each lightning forecast point and elapsed time, to the specified customer. . This forecasting method is not particularly limited, and the information may be simply emailed as character information. For example, information that indicates the lightning prediction point or the customer's position on the area map and is processed so that it can be easily recognized visually. You may send as. Thereby, the customer can recognize the instantaneous drop prediction in relation to the lightning prediction point, can grasp the situation visually, and can consider the response in a situation where the understanding is further enhanced. Note that the customer may be able to confirm the status of the instantaneous voltage drop forecast on the web.

  As described above, according to the instantaneous drop prediction system of the present invention, the power supply information management unit 130 includes, for example, the power system information 31 and the customer information 32 that are classified for each section combined with the sections in the lightning prediction area. By constructing 120, it is possible to easily identify a customer who is expected to have a sag without performing advanced simulations by predicting lightning prediction points and searching the database 120, and forecasting as necessary. It can be carried out.

  Here, a specific method for predicting the instantaneous drop will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 2, (a) shows an image of the database 120, and (b) shows a part of the power system information 31 and customer information 32 shown for each section. is there. Here, the transmission line S1 existing in the section A-1 is connected to the transmission line S3 via the circuit breaker S2 in the section A-2, and the customer A is connected to the transmission line S3 in the section A-3. It is assumed that the circuit breaker S2 is in a disconnected state. Here, it is assumed that lightning strikes S4 frequently occur in the section B-1, and the section A-1 becomes a lightning prediction point. In this case, since the power transmission line S1 is not connected to the power transmission line S3 via the circuit breaker S2, it is determined that there is no possibility that the customer A will experience an instantaneous drop. On the other hand, when the lightning strike S4 predicts the section A-2 as a lightning prediction point, the power transmission line S3 may be affected, so that it is determined that there is a possibility that the customer A may have an instantaneous drop.

  Here, the possibility of instantaneous drop may be determined by ranking in a plurality of stages such as three stages. For example, in the above-described example, the possibility of the influence on the section A-2 may be ranked in about three stages according to the lightning intensity and frequency of the lightning S4. At this time, the rank of the possibility of instantaneous drop may be determined in consideration of the insulation strength of the transmission line S3 and the lightning strike strength of the lightning strike S4. For example, even if the lightning intensity is the same, the higher the insulation strength of the transmission line S3, the lower the possibility rank, and it may be determined that there is no possibility at all.

  In addition, the degree of instantaneous drop can be predicted by ranking in multiple stages such as three stages according to the distance to the customer A of the transmission line S3. That is, ranking may be performed in accordance with the distance of the power transmission line S3 from the lightning prediction point, in this case, the section A-2 to the customer A. For example, as the distance increases, a table in which the degree of instantaneous drop is reduced is created in advance, and the rank is determined according to this table. As a result, the degree of instantaneous drop can be predicted without performing a large-scale simulation. Further, the customer A predicted to the extent of the instantaneous drop can determine the response in consideration of the extent of the instantaneous drop.

  Further, the above-described power supply information management unit 130 sequentially acquires the power system information 31 and the customer information 32 acquired from the power supply information collection and distribution device 30 that also manages the circuit breaker, and sequentially updates the database 120. Therefore, when the circuit breaker S2 is in the connected state in the situation of FIG. 2, the instantaneous drop prediction is performed to the customer A when the section A-1 becomes the lightning prediction point.

  On the other hand, the instantaneous drop prediction means 140 may feed back the information on the predicted lightning occurrence to the power supply information collection and distribution device 30. In this case, the power supply information collection and distribution device 30 may connect or disconnect the circuit breaker in consideration of information such as a lightning prediction point. In some cases, even if a lightning strike occurs according to a lightning prediction, an instantaneous drop for a certain customer can be prevented beforehand by connecting or disconnecting the circuit breaker.

  As described above, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system of the present embodiment constructs a database that organizes power system information and customer information for each section corresponding to the section of the lightning prediction area, and according to the lightning prediction point. It is possible to easily extract a specific customer in an electric power system and a power supply state in which an influence is predicted, thereby easily predicting a momentary bottom without performing a simulation and forecasting as necessary.

(Example)
FIG. 3 shows a schematic diagram of a power transmission line predicted by the instantaneous drop prediction system. As shown in FIG. 3, a transmission line S11, a transmission line S12, and a transmission line S13, which are 220 kV transmission lines, are arranged in sections A-1 to H-1 via an A substation S21 and a B substation S22. ing. Here, power is supplied to the customer 01 from the A substation S21 via the transmission line S31 which is a 110 kV transmission line, and the customer 01 is supplied via the transmission line S32 and the transmission line S33 which are 110 kV transmission lines from the A substation S21. Power is supplied to 02. On the other hand, the transmission line S32 from the A substation S21 is provided up to the C substation S23, but is currently interrupted, and a transmission line that is a 110 kV transmission line between the B substation S22 and the C substation S23. S34 is provided. The C substation S23 supplies power to the customer 03 via the transmission line S41, which is a 66 kV transmission line, and supplies power to the customer 04 via the transmission line S42.

  Here, the above-described power supply information management unit 130 constructs the database 120 including the power system information 31 and the customer information 32 divided for each section combined with the section of the lightning prediction area, for example. A part of the database is shown in Table 1. In other words, for each lightning forecast area, this database contains information about the voltage class (insulation strength) of the transmission line of that section, the distance from that section to each customer, and the connection status with the system of that section. It has a numerical state.

  For example, the voltage class is 66 kV or 22 kV transmission line “0”, 110 kV transmission line “1”, 220 kV transmission line “2”, and 550 kV transmission line “3”. The distance is set to “0” for the same voltage transmission range, “1” for the step-down 1 step range, “2” for the step-down 2 step range, and “3” for the step-down 3 step range. The connection state is “0” for no connection and “1” for connection.

  Table 2 shows the result of the instantaneous drop prediction based on such a database. Here, as a premise of the instantaneous drop prediction, a specific lightning prediction area, for example, B-1, D-1, G-1, F-2, F-4, D-4, B-3, etc. It was assumed that the lightning prediction was “large”, “medium”, and “small”.

  In addition, the instantaneous drop prediction is the initial point, and the lightning prediction is “10” for “Large”, “7” for “Medium”, and “4” for “Small”. did.

(Formula 1)
Instantaneous drop prediction point = (initial point-voltage class-distance) x connection state

  In addition, as described below, the possibility of occurrence of a sag is determined in four stages of “large”, “medium”, “small”, and “none” according to the sag prediction point.

Possibility of occurrence of instantaneous drop “Large”: Instantaneous drop prediction points 10-8
Possibility of occurrence of instantaneous drop “Medium”: Instantaneous drop prediction points 7 to 5
Possibility of occurrence of instantaneous drop “Small”: Instantaneous drop prediction point 4 to 1
Possibility of occurrence of instantaneous drop "None": Instantaneous drop prediction point 0 or less

  As a result, if a lightning prediction area is identified and the possibility of lightning is predicted in three stages, large, medium and small, the instantaneous bottom can be easily predicted without performing advanced simulation, and predicted as necessary. It became clear that it was possible.

It is a functional block diagram of the instantaneous drop prediction system concerning one Embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the prediction by the instantaneous drop prediction system concerning one Embodiment of this invention. It is the schematic diagram of the power transmission line which performed prediction by the instantaneous drop prediction system of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Lightning forecast information 20 Lightning strike location device 21 Lightning strike information 30 Power supply information collection | distribution apparatus 31 Electric power system information 32 Customer information 100 Instantaneous drop forecast server 110 Lightning forecast acquisition means 120 Database 130 Power supply information management means 140 Instantaneous voltage drop prediction means 150 Instantaneous voltage drop prediction means

Claims (11)

Lightning prediction acquisition means for acquiring lightning prediction information including the lightning prediction area from the outside, and power supply information for creating power supply information specifying the power system and facilities for each customer from customer information and power system information as the power supply destination Select a target power system and equipment for which the impact of lightning is predicted from the lightning forecast information acquired by the management means and the lightning forecast acquisition means and the power system information, and through the target power system and equipment An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system comprising: an instantaneous voltage drop prediction means for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop for a target customer to whom power is supplied. In Claim 1, the said lightning prediction area is a division unit divided into a mesh shape, and the power supply information management means divides the power supply information for each of the sections, and selects a predetermined section. An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system characterized by having a database that can identify the target customer connected to the target power system and equipment existing in the section. 3. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the instantaneous voltage drop prediction means predicts the instantaneous voltage drop in consideration of an actual lightning intensity and frequency together with the lightning prediction information. . 4. The instantaneous voltage drop predicting means according to claim 3, wherein the instantaneous voltage drop predicting means predicts the possibility of an instantaneous voltage drop in consideration of the lightning strike intensity and the insulation strength of the transmission line in the expected lightning strike area. Voltage drop prediction system. 5. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the possibility of the instantaneous voltage drop is predicted by classifying into at least three stages. 6. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the instantaneous voltage drop prediction unit predicts the degree of instantaneous voltage drop together with the possibility of instantaneous voltage drop. 7. The instantaneous voltage according to claim 6, wherein the degree of the instantaneous voltage drop is predicted by classifying into at least three stages in consideration of the length of the power system from the lightning predicted area to the target customer. Decline prediction system. 8. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 7, further comprising an instantaneous voltage drop prediction means for forecasting the target customer based on the prediction of the instantaneous voltage drop prediction means. 9. The instantaneous voltage drop forecasting unit according to claim 8, wherein the instantaneous voltage drop forecasting unit reports the forecast to the target customer together with information on the location of the target customer and the lightning predicted area shown on a map. Prediction system. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein the power system information includes the latest information on connection or disconnection of a circuit breaker installed in the power system. In Claim 10, the forecast notified to the target customer by the instantaneous voltage drop forecasting means is transmitted to a circuit breaker management unit that manages connection or circuit breaker in the power system, and the circuit breaker based on the forecast is transmitted. An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system, wherein connection or break information is included in the latest information on the breaker.

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