JP2000131458A - Observation system for thundercloud - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain an observation system which estimates the extinction, the movement or the like of a thundercloud based on the rise and fall of the thundercloud and by which the movement of the thundercloud or the lightning is estimated more precisely. SOLUTION: A region judgment part 2 which judges a thundercloud region on the basis of observation data by a weather observation means is provided. In addition, a movement estimation part 4 which estimates the movement position of the thundercloud region on the basis of the tracking result of the thundercloud region is provided. In addition, a rise-and-fall pattern judgment part 5 which judges a rise and fall regarding the thundercloud region judged by the region judgment part 2, and which generates the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region, is provided. In addition, an extinction estimation part 6 which estimates a rise and fall up to the extinction of the thundercloud region on the basis of the rise and fall pattern to be outputted from the rise-and-fall pattern judgment part 5. On the basis of the estimation result of the extinction estimation part 6, the lightning of a thundercloud is estimated.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a thundercloud observation system for observing a thundercloud based on echo information from a weather radar and for predicting the movement of the observed thundercloud and predicting a lightning strike.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In general, in a large-scale power supply system including a plurality of power plants, substations, transmission lines, and the like, it is generated around the system due to a request for avoiding damage due to a lightning strike or expediting an accident recovery measure. It is necessary to observe the scale, trends, etc. of the thunderclouds and predict the location, time zone, etc. of the occurrence of lightning strikes by these thunderclouds in advance. For example, JP-A-8-1
Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 22433 discloses that a rainfall area in a cloud widely spreading in a radar cover area and a thundercloud area in the rainfall area can be identified as applied to such power equipment and used for forecasting the occurrence of a lightning strike. Describes a thundercloud observation system that can identify and track a thundercloud with high accuracy based on the identified thundercloud area.

In the description of the second embodiment (corresponding to FIG. 8) in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 8-122433, the rise / fall state of a thundercloud to be observed is determined from the increase / decrease of the acquired time-series rise / fall data. It is described that the thundercloud area under observation is identified as a strong lightning or a weak lightning based on the result of this judgment.
Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 110378 and Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 7-110379. ).

[0004]

As described above, a conventional thundercloud observation system applied to a high-power power supply system such as a power facility requires a demand for avoiding damage due to a lightning strike or speeding up measures for accident recovery. It is necessary to accurately predict in advance the location, time zone, etc. of lightning strikes caused by thunderclouds from
For example, there has been proposed a thundercloud observation system capable of performing a high-accuracy identification / tracking process of a thundercloud region, such as a thundercloud observation system described in JP-A-8-122433. However, unlike a target such as an aircraft, the thundercloud that is the object of observation of such a thundercloud observation system changes its shape with the passage of time, and its existence itself disappears. Although a thundercloud area within a widespread rainfall area can be accurately identified / tracked by the method described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. H08-122433, a comparison is made from this tracking cycle based on the identification / tracking results. It is extremely difficult to predict the movement position or rise and fall of the thundercloud area after a certain period of time, and as a result, the operator who is monitoring the thundercloud misrecognizes and misjudges the location of lightning strike or time zone. For example, there is a problem in the reliability of the thundercloud observation system that is used for early forecast of lightning strike.

For example, when a result of identification / tracking of the thundercloud observation system is displayed on a monitor, and an operator monitors the thundercloud based on the display contents, the operator identifies / tracks the thundercloud displayed on the monitor. From the results, it is necessary to predict the moving position and the position of the lightning strike after a certain period of time, and perform a lightning strike, etc., but as described above, the shape of the thundercloud that is the observation target of this observation system changes with the passage of time, and Means that the existence itself disappears. Although it is possible to make almost accurate predictions of the position of the thundercloud at a relatively short time (about the tracking cycle) from past trajectories, As for the moving position of the thundercloud at a distant time (for example, about 30 minutes to 60 minutes), almost accurate prediction cannot be made from the past trajectory. Even if the movement position and movement trajectory of the thundercloud 30 minutes or even 60 minutes ahead from the past movement trajectory are predicted, in fact, the direction in which the predicted movement thundercloud deviates from the predicted movement trajectory. , Or has already disappeared at the middle point of the predicted movement trajectory.

[0006] As described above, the fact that the moving position of the thundercloud and the rise and fall of the thundercloud at a relatively distant time can be accurately grasped leads to an early prediction of the occurrence of a lightning strike, and furthermore, to prevent damage due to a lightning strike in advance. This can be a great advantage (for example, in a power supply system having a plurality of power plants as described above, switching of power transmission lines 1
Even so, it requires a great deal of cost and time, and we do not want to uselessly switch transmission lines as much as possible. In addition to being able to reliably avoid lightning strikes, extremely efficient transmission line switching can be realized. ).

[0007] As described above, the rise and fall of the thundercloud is determined, and based on the increase and decrease of the time series rise and fall data, whether the thundercloud under observation is a strong lightning or a weak lightning, that is, the thundercloud is in the development stage. Thundercloud observation systems that determine whether a thundercloud is in a declining phase have also been proposed, but these are simply used to identify whether the thundercloud being observed is a strong lightning or a weak lightning. It is not possible to predict the lightning strike position, time zone, etc. of the thundercloud under observation from these at an early stage.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and it is intended to predict the disappearance and movement of a thundercloud based on the rise and fall of the thundercloud, and to provide more accurate thundercloud movement prediction or lightning strike prediction. A new thundercloud observation system that can perform

[0009]

According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a thundercloud observation system, comprising: a region judging unit for judging a thundercloud region from observation data of a meteorological observation unit; and the thundercloud region judged by the region judging unit. A movement prediction unit that predicts the movement position of the thundercloud region from the tracking result, and a rise / fall pattern determination unit that determines a rise / fall state of the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit and generates a rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region. And a disappearance predicting unit for predicting a rise and fall state until the thundercloud region disappears based on the rise and fall pattern output from the rise and fall pattern determination unit.

[0010] In the thundercloud observation system according to the second aspect of the present invention, the extinction predicting unit includes a region determining unit that determines a thundercloud region from observation data of a meteorological observation unit, and a region determining unit that determines the thundercloud region determined by the region determining unit. A movement prediction unit that predicts the movement position of the thundercloud region from the tracking result, a rise / fall pattern determination unit that determines a rise / fall state of the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit, and generates a rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region, A storage unit that stores map information in the observation area, and a disappearance prediction unit that predicts a rise and fall situation until the thundercloud region disappears from the map information and the rise and fall pattern stored in the storage unit. is there.

According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present invention, the prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are input, respectively, and the prediction results of the thundercloud region after the disappearance of the thundercloud region predicted by the disappearance prediction unit. A display processing unit for hiding the prediction result of the movement prediction unit and displaying the result on the display unit is provided.

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the thundercloud observation system, the prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are respectively input, and the thundercloud is located at the predicted movement position of the thundercloud region displayed on the display unit. A display processing unit for displaying the disappearance probability of the area is also provided.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present invention, a display processing for displaying either the disappearance probability of the thundercloud region or the disappearance time of the thundercloud region on the display unit according to the prediction reliability of the disappearance prediction unit. Part is provided.

According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a thundercloud observation system, comprising: an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area from observation data of a meteorological observation means; and tracking for performing a tracking process on the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section. A processing unit, a rise and fall situation determination unit that determines the rise and fall situation for the thundercloud area determined by the area determination unit, based on the rise and fall situation determined by the rise and fall situation determination unit and the tracking result of the tracking processing unit. And a movement prediction unit for predicting the movement position of the thundercloud area.

According to a thirteenth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a thundercloud observation system, comprising: an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area from observation data of weather observation means; and a rise / fall state of the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section. A tracking process for performing a tracking process on the thundercloud region determined by the region determining unit using a tracking means or a tracking processing method selected based on the rise and fall situation determined by the rise and fall status determination unit. And a movement prediction unit for predicting the movement position of the thundercloud region from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit.

The extinction prediction section of the thundercloud observation system according to the invention of claim 8 includes a database for registering the rise and fall patterns of various thundercloud areas as search data, and the rise and fall pattern determination section among the rise and fall patterns registered in the database. A search means for extracting a rising and falling pattern similar to the rising and falling pattern of the thundercloud area generated by the search means, and a processing until the thundercloud area generated by the rising and falling pattern determination unit based on the rising and falling data extracted by the search means disappears. A disappearance determination unit that predicts the rise and fall situation.

[0017]

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Embodiment 1 Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, and FIG. 2 is a weather observation unit (for example, a radar device for weather observation) for observing echo information in an observation area.
FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram schematically showing a thundercloud observation situation of FIG. 1. The thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1 was obtained by observation data of weather observation means as shown in FIG. 2 and other weather observation means described later. Observation data is supplied, and from these observation data, movement prediction or disappearance prediction of a thundercloud generated in the observation area is performed. here,
The observation area refers to an area where the observation of echo information and the like is performed by the meteorological observation means, and covers a fairly wide area including the above-described power equipment and its peripheral part. The block diagram shown in FIG. 1 shows the basic configuration of the thundercloud observation system according to the present invention. The thundercloud observation system in another embodiment differs from the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. It has been added or partially modified.

In FIG. 1, reference numeral 1 denotes an integrated processing of various observation data obtained from each meteorological observation means, and outputs area determination data serving as a reference for determination of a precipitation area and a thundercloud area to a subsequent area determination unit 2. The data integration processing unit 2 is a region determination unit that determines and identifies a precipitation region generated in the observation region based on the region determination data output from the data integration processing unit 1 and a thundercloud region in the precipitation region. Is a tracking processing unit that extracts a thundercloud area from the determination result of the area determination unit 2 and performs identification and tracking processing on the extracted thundercloud area. 4 denotes a predetermined time of the thundercloud that has been tracked based on the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3. A movement estimating unit for estimating a moving position and the like after the lapse of time, a rise and fall state of the thunder cloud area extracted from the area determination unit 2 is determined, and a rise and fall pattern of the thunder cloud area is generated from the time series rise and fall state. The turn determining unit 6 performs a disappearance prediction process described later based on the rise and fall pattern generated by the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5, and a disappearance prediction unit that obtains a rise and fall state until the observed thundercloud region disappears (up to the present time). The rise and fall conditions of the thundercloud area are estimated 20 minutes or 60 minutes after the current observation time, for example. The result, the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3, the respective prediction results of the movement prediction unit 4 and the disappearance prediction unit 6, and the like are input, and based on these, for example, a display image as shown in FIG. This is a display processing unit to be displayed on the display unit.

In FIG. 2, reference numeral 8 denotes a transmission / reception antenna unit for acquiring echo information in the observation area, specifically, echo intensity data (rain intensity intensity mesh data) in a rectangular coordinate system. A meteorological observation means (for example, a radar device for meteorological observation, hereinafter, referred to as a meteorological radar) supplied to the data integration processing unit 1 shown in FIG. 1, a thundercloud 9 generated in the observation area, and an antenna unit 10 of the meteorological radar 8 The weather radar 8 scans the transmission beam 10 in the AZ direction, for example, and scans the rotation beam to a predetermined elevation angle (scanning in the EL direction). ) To obtain echo information in the observation area (hereinafter, simply referred to as echo information). In addition, the weather radar 8 can obtain new echo information by repeating the rotation scanning up to the predetermined elevation angle, and the observation period of the echo information is set to an optimal time appropriately from the relationship with the observation accuracy of the weather radar 8. (If the observation period is set short, scanning within the observation area must be performed in a short time, and the integration number of the data becomes small accordingly, and the observation accuracy deteriorates.) The weather radar 8 shown in FIG. 2 obtains echo information. For example, a weather Doppler radar (hereinafter, referred to as a Doppler radar) that can also measure a change in Doppler velocity of an observation target. May be used. When a Doppler radar is used, the Doppler velocity can be measured in addition to the echo information, so that detailed changes in convection inside the thundercloud can be observed. Movement prediction can be realized.

Next, the operation of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1 will be described in detail with reference to FIGS.
FIG. 3 is an operation flowchart for explaining the operation of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is described in, for example, the above-mentioned Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 8-122433. In parallel with the thundercloud area tracking processing (S02) such as the described thundercloud observation system, the processing of generating the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud (S0)
3) is performed, and based on the processing results of each of these processes (S02 to S06), the display processing unit 7 displays the predicted movement of the thundercloud region and the predicted disappearance of the observed thundercloud region on a display unit such as a monitor.

First, when the observation of echo information is started by the weather radar 8 as shown in FIG. 2, the data integration processing unit 1 of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. High-level meteorological information from meteorological observation means in Japan (This high-level meteorological information is regularly provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and altitude-temperature contrast data indicating the relationship between altitude and temperature in the observation area can be obtained from this high-level meteorological information. Are input. Data integration processing unit 1
As described above, calculates the area determination data for the thundercloud determination from the observation data (here, echo intensity data, altitude-temperature comparison data, etc.) of these meteorological observation means. As described in JP-A-122433, VIL (vertical integrated water content) data for each mesh unit calculated from echo intensity data, echo intensity data, and echo top temperature data calculated from high-level weather information are output as region determination data. . The area determination data is calculated and output based on echo information for each observation cycle obtained by the weather radar 8.
New area determination data is output to the area determination unit 2 for each observation period (S01).

The area judging section 2 judges the size of the thundercloud generated in the observation area, that is, the thundercloud area based on the area judgment data output from the data integration processing section 1. When the determination data is input, for example, the input VIL data is compared with a preset first reference value (threshold value for determining the precipitation area), and the VIL data of the VIL data determined to be equal to or more than the reference value is compared. The area is determined as a precipitation area. Then, the echo peak temperature data in the region determined as the precipitation region is compared with a predetermined second reference value (threshold for determining the thundercloud region), and the echo peak temperature determined to be equal to or less than the reference value is determined. It is determined that the data area is a thundercloud area (S02). The determination result of the area determination unit 2 is output to the display processing unit 7 and used for the display data of the thundercloud region displayed on the display unit as an image, and supplied to the tracking processing unit 3 and the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5 at the subsequent stage. The data is used as data for the tracking process and the rise / fall judgment process (the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 can determine the rise / fall status from the extracted echo intensity data for the thundercloud region, for example). The determined thundercloud area is provided with an identification code or the like, so that even if a plurality of thunderclouds are generated in the observation area, the movement prediction unit 4 and the disappearance prediction unit 6, which will be described later, predict the movement of each thundercloud area. , Annihilation prediction is possible. In the description of the present embodiment, the determination of the thundercloud area is made by V
Although it is described that the thundercloud region is defined using the IL and the echo top temperature, the thundercloud region can also be defined using other observation data, and the definition of the thundercloud region determination is determined using the observation data that can define such a thundercloud region. Just do it.

Next, the operation of the movement prediction system (S03 to S0)
4) will be described. The tracking processing unit 3 performs identification / tracking processing using, for example, a tracking filter on the thundercloud region extracted from the determination result of the area determination unit 2, and the movement prediction unit 4 identifies / tracks from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3. This is to predict the moving direction of the obtained thundercloud region, the moving position after a predetermined time has elapsed, and the like. First, the tracking processing section 3 calculates a thundercloud center of gravity for the thundercloud area extracted from the determination result of the area determination section 2 to calculate a tracking reference point of the thundercloud area. The correlation is determined based on whether or not the distance to the point is within a threshold value. In order to improve the determination accuracy, the correlation determination may be further performed based on the degree of overlap of the thundercloud shapes (patterns). However, as the number of parameters increases, the determination process takes time, and the relationship between the thundercloud pattern and the processing time increases. It is determined whether or not to perform the correlation determination based on the degree of overlap. As a result of this correlation determination, if it is determined that there is no correlation, it is determined that the thundercloud region extracted this time is different from the previously extracted thundercloud region, and the tracking process for the thundercloud region ends,
If it is determined that there is a correlation, the thundercloud area extracted this time is determined to be the same as the previously extracted thundercloud area, and tracking processing of this thundercloud area is determined until there is no correlation. Is continued (S03).

The identification / tracking processing by the tracking processing unit 3 is performed every time observation data of the weather radar 8 is obtained. The tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3 is the same as the observation cycle of the weather radar 8. (For example, if the observation cycle of the weather radar 8 is set to about 5 minutes to 6 minutes, tracking processing for each thundercloud area is also performed at a cycle of 5 minutes to 6 minutes.) The moving position and the moving speed of the thundercloud region subjected to the tracking process are respectively calculated from the tracking processing result of, and the calculated moving position and the moving speed of the thundercloud region are used as parameters of the movement prediction in the movement prediction unit 4 described later. Respectively. Since the extracted thundercloud areas are assigned identification codes, even if a plurality of thundercloud areas are extracted, the tracking result is identified based on the identification codes to determine the movement position and movement for each thundercloud area. Speed can be calculated.

The movement predicting section 4 predicts the movement of the thundercloud area subjected to tracking processing based on the moving position, moving direction, moving speed, etc. of the thundercloud area output from the tracking processing section 3 as described above (S04). . FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the observation cycle of the weather radar 8, the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3, the time predicted for movement by the movement prediction unit 4, and the like, as shown in FIG. The tracking processing unit 3 repeats the above-described tracking processing at each time interval (tracking cycle) of the time Tt corresponding to the observation cycle Tk of the weather radar.
Moving position a of the thundercloud area after a lapse of a predetermined time from the current observation point a0
The movement positions (a1, a2,... an) up to n are predicted at, for example, time intervals Ti. That is, in the identification / tracking process of the tracking processing unit 3, each time observation data is obtained from the weather radar 8 or the like, the movement position of the thundercloud area after a relatively short time one cycle (about 5 to 6 minutes) ahead. For prediction, the movement prediction unit 4 predicts up to the movement position of the thundercloud area after a considerably long time has passed (FIG. 4).
As shown in (1), by predicting the movement prediction time of the movement prediction unit 4 for a plurality of time points, it is possible to recognize the movement time point for each relatively short time. ).

Here, if the above-mentioned tracking cycle is set short, a large number of parameters for movement prediction can be obtained and the accuracy of the identification / tracking processing can be improved. However, as described above, this tracking cycle Tt is Since it corresponds to the observation period Tk of the radar 8, 5
Minutes to 6 minutes. When the observation cycle is set to be long, such as 8 to 10 minutes, the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3 is also about 8 to 10 minutes.

Further, the movement prediction of the thundercloud observation system according to the present invention predicts the movement position of only the thundercloud region having a high risk of lightning, as in the conventional thundercloud observation system, that is, only the thundercloud region which is already in a decline period. Instead, it is necessary to display the prediction result of the extinction of the thundercloud area on a display unit such as a monitor. (Especially, the thundercloud observation system according to Embodiment 2 predicts disappearance or lightning of a thundercloud area observed from the rise and fall of the development period.) Specifically, the tracking position of the thundercloud region calculated by the tracking processing unit 3, the moving speed, and the like (the moving position, the moving speed, and the like can be obtained by repeating the tracking process for several cycles). Similarly to the above, a movement prediction range (gate) centered on the movement position predicted at each prediction time is created, and it is determined that the thundercloud region moves to any of the gates. This movement prediction gate indicates the probability that the predicted thundercloud area exists in the gate. For example, even if a gate having an existence probability of 85% is created, as shown in FIG. The gate has a wider gate range.

The result of the movement prediction unit 4 (for example, (1) thundercloud number to (5) thundercloud information shown in FIG. 5) is output to the display processing unit 7 and monitored together with the prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6. Etc. are appropriately displayed on a display unit. As described above, since the extracted thundercloud areas are assigned identification codes, even if movement prediction is performed for a plurality of thundercloud areas, each thundercloud area is displayed in the display processing unit 7 in the same manner as the tracking processing described above. It is possible to identify the movement prediction result for each area. FIG. 4
Shows the relationship between the observation cycle of the weather radar 8 and the judgment cycle and prediction cycle of the disappearance prediction system described below, and will be used as appropriate in the description of the operation of the disappearance prediction system.

Next, the operation of the annihilation prediction system, which is a feature of the present invention, will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 6 to 8 (S05 to S06). 6 is a block diagram showing the rise / fall pattern determining unit 5 in more detail, FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing the disappearance prediction unit 6 in more detail, and FIG. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of a rise and fall pattern showing a rise and fall pattern for a thundercloud region. A disappearance prediction unit 6 of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment predicts disappearance of the thundercloud region based on a rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region as shown in FIG. (Decision of rise / fall status until disappearance).

First, the rise / fall judgment process (S05) will be described. The rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 determines the rise / fall status from the observation data on the thundercloud region extracted from the region determination unit 2, and the rise / fall pattern for the thundercloud region observed by the weather radar 8 from each of the rise / fall data acquired in time series. The rise / fall status determination unit 11 adds, for example, a predetermined weighting to each observation data (echo intensity data, echo peak temperature data, VIL data, etc.) of the thundercloud region obtained by the data integration processing unit 1. Is performed, the rise / fall state of the thundercloud region extracted from the region determination unit 2 is determined. The results of the rise and fall condition determination section 11 are output to the rise and fall pattern generation section 12, respectively. The weighting may be determined and set according to the observation conditions of the thundercloud region, or may be automatically changed according to the observation conditions.

Next, the rise / fall pattern determining unit 12 stores the determination result of the rise / fall status determination unit 11 for each identification code, and generates, for example, a time-series rise / fall pattern as shown in FIG. 6 for each thundercloud region. Is done. As described above, each rise and fall data is calculated for each observation cycle of the weather radar 8 (see the relationship between the observation cycle Tk and the rise and fall judgment cycle Ts in FIG. 4). The generated rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region is composed of time-series rise / fall data obtained for each observation cycle of the weather radar 8. The rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region generated in this manner is output to the disappearance prediction unit 6 as a determination parameter for the prediction of disappearance of the thundercloud region, as described later. Further, since the extracted thundercloud region is provided with an identification code, it is possible to identify the rise / fall pattern of each thundercloud region, and to correspond to each processing result of the tracking processing unit 3 and the movement prediction unit 4 described above. As described later, these processing results are integrally processed by the display processing unit 7 and displayed on a display unit such as a monitor. It should be noted that the use of the determination result of the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5 in the processing of the tracking processing unit 3 or the movement prediction unit 4 to improve the prediction accuracy of the movement prediction of the thundercloud observation system will be described in detail in the description of the other embodiments. explain.

Next, the operation of the disappearance predicting section 6 will be described (S06). The rise / fall pattern output from the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 can be identified by an identification code, and the extinction prediction for each thundercloud region is performed. Several methods such as a case search can be used for the method of the disappearance prediction. However, the disappearance prediction unit 6 of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment uses the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region generated by the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5. A description will be given of a method of extracting rise and fall data (hereinafter, referred to as fall period data) of a fall period portion and predicting disappearance of the thundercloud region from the peak value of the fall period data, the inclination of the data pattern, and the like. In addition, the prediction period of the movement prediction unit 4 can be set to be unlimited (n is a predetermined number from a0 to an), whereas the disappearance prediction period of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is calculated based on the rise and fall pattern. Up to the point.

Referring to the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region shown in FIG. 8 as an example, in FIG. 8, the horizontal axis indicates the time when each rise and fall data is obtained, and the vertical axis indicates the rise and fall values, and the rise and fall values are the largest. The rise and fall value at the time Tp is a peak value, and the period from the time Tp when the peak value of the rise and fall data is obtained to the time Tn when the latest rise and fall data is obtained is called a rise and fall period, and the rise and fall data obtained in this time zone From the data, the slope of the decay period data is obtained. In general, the decay period refers to a time period in which the thundercloud region is declining. In the present embodiment, the latest decay data is obtained from the time Tp at which the peak value of the decay data is obtained for more accurate extinction prediction. The time period up to the set time Tn is defined as a decline period.

First, the decay period detecting section 13 extracts rise and fall data in the decay period portion from the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region generated by the rise and fall pattern determination section 5 as described above. The data of the decay period may be extracted from the peak value of the rise and fall data to the latest rise and fall data. Then, the disappearance determination unit 14 performs extrapolation processing of the rise and fall data based on the so-called fall period data detected by the fall period detection unit 13, and the thundercloud region is determined from the time Tn at which the latest rise and fall data was obtained. Calculate the rise and fall data (rise and fall values) up to the time of disappearance. As will be described later, the extinction time of the thundercloud region is displayed on the movement locus of the thundercloud region predicted by the movement prediction unit 4. Are calculated for the values in. By the extrapolation of the rise and fall data, the rise and fall data obtained by the calculation is inserted into the rise and fall data sequence obtained by actual observation to generate the rise and fall pattern until the disappearance. It is possible to predict when the thundercloud region will disappear and when a lightning strike will occur. The processing result (extinction / decrement data, disappearance time, and the like) of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is output to the display processing unit 7 in the same manner as the processing results of the area determination determination unit 2, tracking processing unit 3, and movement prediction unit 4 described above.

As the method of the extrapolation processing, an approximate calculation method such as a linear approximation method, a Gaussian curve or a Gaussian function approximation method may be used. Is appropriately selected and used. Further, the larger the number of data in the decay period, that is, the larger the number of samplings for the above-mentioned extrapolation, the more accurately the rise and fall pattern until the disappearance of the thundercloud region can be approximated more accurately. In the system, the rise / fall judgment cycle of the rise / fall pattern determiner 5, that is, the cycle at which the sampling data is obtained, corresponds to the observation cycle of the weather radar similarly to the above-described tracking cycle. Is deteriorated, so that the rise and fall judgment cycle of the rise and fall pattern judgment unit 5 is the same as the tracking cycle of the tracking processing unit 3.
It is set appropriately in relation to the observation accuracy of weather radar.

Finally, the processing contents of the display processing section 7 will be further described with reference to FIGS. 9, 10 and 11 (S0
7). FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a specific configuration of the display processing unit 7, and FIGS. 10 and 11 show the processing of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, which is processed by the display processing unit 7 and displayed on a display unit such as a monitor. It is a display example explanatory drawing which shows an image display example. The display processing unit 7 performs the above-described processing steps S0
The processing results of 1 to S06 are input, display data for two-dimensional or three-dimensional display is generated from these, and a display image based on the display data is displayed on a display unit. S01 to S06) are not only integrated and displayed, but also perform a process (selection display) of switching the content to be displayed on the display unit according to the processing result of the disappearance prediction unit 6, as described later.

In FIG. 9, reference numeral 15 denotes a reliability judgment unit for judging the predicted reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6, and reference numeral 16 denotes a display image corresponding to the judgment result of the reliability judgment unit 15 on the display unit 17. This is a display data processing unit that performs processing for displaying. 10 and FIG.
Is the thundercloud area displayed on the display unit 17, and 19 is the tracking processing unit 3.
And the movement trajectory of the thundercloud region indicating the movement route of the thundercloud region predicted by the movement prediction unit 4. The movement trajectory 19 up to the present time includes the predicted movement position obtained by the movement prediction unit 4 and the tracking. The actual thundercloud observation position obtained by the processing unit 3 is displayed, and only the predicted movement position of the thundercloud region predicted by the movement prediction unit 4 is displayed on the movement trajectory 19 from now on.

FIGS. 10 and 11 show examples in which the movement prediction points of the movement prediction section 4 are displayed in accordance with the tracking cycle of the tracking processing section 3. Then, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, in addition to the thundercloud region 18 which is the determination result of the region determination unit 2 and the movement trajectory 19 which is the movement prediction result of the movement prediction unit 4, the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is used. The disappearance position or the disappearance probability of a certain thundercloud area is also displayed. Here, the display example shown in FIG. 10 is a display example selected when the reliability determination by the reliability determination unit 15 determines that the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6 is high. In this case, the display processing unit 7 displays the extinction position of the thundercloud region predicted by the extinction prediction unit 6 on the corresponding trajectory 19 of the thundercloud region, and performs a display process of hiding the trajectory 19 after the extinction position. Do. FIG.
At 0, 20 is predicted by the disappearance predicting unit 6 and displayed by 17
This shows the disappearance position of the thundercloud area displayed above.

The display example shown in FIG. 11 is a display example selected when the reliability determination by the reliability determination section 15 determines that the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction section 6 is low. In this case, the display processing unit 7 displays the extinction probability of the thundercloud region at the disappearance position on the movement locus 19 of the corresponding thundercloud region, instead of the extinction position of the thundercloud region predicted by the extinction prediction unit 6. I do. Displaying the extinction prediction result of the extinction predicting unit 6 with the extinction probability in this manner is more effective than the operator monitoring the thundercloud making an erroneous determination based on the extinction position of the thundercloud region predicted with low reliability. Is the extinction probability of the thundercloud area at each predicted movement position as shown in FIG. 11 (5%, 30% in FIG. 9).
Is displayed as follows. ) Is displayed, and it is better to leave the judgment of the disappearance position of the thundercloud area to the operator (as described above, since the observation result of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is used for a lightning strike warning of power equipment or the like). It is hoped that the position where the observed thundercloud disappears will be accurately determined.)

Next, a description will be given of a process of determining the disappearance prediction result in the reliability determining unit 15. As described above, the extinction prediction of the thundercloud region in the present embodiment is performed by the decay period detection unit 13.
Since it is performed based on the rise and fall data in the decay period part detected in, the reliability determination of the disappearance prediction result in the case of performing such disappearance prediction, for example, the number of data of the rise and fall data in the detected decay period part What should be done based on it. In general, the more the number of data, the more accurate approximation processing can be performed. Therefore, a threshold of the number of data (for example, the threshold may be set to an appropriate number of data from past observation results) is determined in advance. If the number of rise and fall data in the detected decay period portion exceeds the threshold value, it is determined that the extinction prediction result of the thundercloud region predicted based on the rise and fall data has high reliability. If the number of rise and fall data is equal to or less than the threshold value, it is determined that the reliability is low.

As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display processing unit 7 first determines the reliability of the disappearance prediction result, and the display image corresponding to the determination result is displayed on the display unit 17. Will be. Therefore, for example, the operator monitoring the thundercloud based on the display contents displayed on the display unit 17 of the thundercloud observation system can accurately recognize the moving state of the thundercloud as well as the disappearance state (extinction position or disappearance probability). And more accurate thundercloud monitoring can be realized. Accurate thundercloud monitoring by this operator would in turn lead to more accurate lightning strike warnings,
It is extremely effective in a thundercloud observation system applied to power equipment, etc., which is required to avoid lightning strikes or expedite accident recovery measures (as described above, it is possible to accurately predict the place of lightning strike and the time zone, An efficient thundercloud observation system, which is extremely useful for system operation, can eliminate unnecessary lightning strike warnings and prevent unnecessary switching of transmission line routes, etc.)

In the above description, the display processing unit 7 automatically selects the display content to be displayed on the display unit according to the reliability of the disappearance prediction result of the disappearance prediction unit 6. The selection may be left to the judgment of the operator monitoring the lightning strike, and a desired display example may always be displayed on the display unit regardless of the reliability of the disappearance prediction result. In this case, the operator monitoring the thundercloud may select the display content and set the processing content of the display processing unit 7 so that such a display image is displayed on the display unit. Further, the display examples of the thundercloud observation results by this thundercloud observation system shown in FIGS. 10 and 11 show only the observation results of one thundercloud region, but as described above, in this system, Observation of a plurality of generated thunderclouds is possible, and when observations are made of a plurality of thunderclouds, the observation result of each thundercloud is displayed on the display unit 17 via the display processing unit 7, and the operator can use these observation clouds. Lightning strike prediction for a plurality of thundercloud regions can be performed based on the displayed contents.

As described above, according to the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, not only the result of the prediction of the movement of the thundercloud is displayed on the display unit, but also the result of the prediction of the disappearance of the thundercloud is also displayed on the display unit. , So that thunderclouds can be monitored more accurately according to the rise and fall of thunderclouds. It is possible to prevent an erroneous lightning strike or the like. In addition, even when a plurality of thunderclouds occur in the observation area, it is possible to predict the movement and the extinction of each thundercloud, so that the thundercloud monitoring operator can provide accurate thundercloud observation information. it can.

Embodiment 2 In the thundercloud observation system according to the above embodiment, as a method for predicting the disappearance of the thundercloud,
A method of performing linear approximation processing from the decay period data of the rise and fall pattern and extrapolating the rise and fall data until the thundercloud region disappears was used. If the accumulation is not accumulated, the extinction prediction of the thundercloud area cannot be performed (the detected decay period is longer and more rise and fall data is required to improve the reliability of the extinction prediction), and the extinction is early. It was not very effective in predicting. However, in an actual thundercloud observation system used for a lightning strike warning, etc., it is desirable that such a lightning strike warning is issued early because of a request for quick lightning damage avoidance, etc., and early disappearance prediction can be realized. It is desirable to have a system. In the present embodiment, a thundercloud observation system that can realize earlier extinction prediction or lightning strike prediction will be described.

FIG. 12 is a block diagram specifically showing the disappearance prediction unit of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 12, the disappearance prediction unit 6b in the present embodiment is based on a case search. Thus, the rise and fall state or rise and fall pattern from the current observation point to the disappearance of the thundercloud area is determined and generated. The overall configuration of the thundercloud observation system, the operation of each unit, and the like are the same as those shown in FIG. 1, and the description of the other components having the same reference numerals will be omitted. That is, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the operation, function, and the like of the annihilation prediction unit 6b are the same as those of the above-described embodiment. This is specifically different from the thundercloud observation system according to No. 1.

In FIG. 12, reference numeral 21 denotes actual disappearance information (eg, echo intensity data, data of the rise / fall pattern generated by the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5) corresponding to observation data on the thundercloud region observed in the past. For example, how many minutes after the peak value was obtained, how many minutes later it disappeared, etc.), and a case database registered and accumulated in a case format as shown in FIG. 12, for example. A case search unit which registers case data having the same observation data as the observation data by searching the case database, and a rise / fall pattern of the case data extracted by the case search unit 22 ( (Including the rise and fall data until the disappearance.) For the thundercloud region extracted from Calculated is extinguished state determination section for outputting to the display unit 7 as a disappearance prediction result.

Next, specific processing contents of the disappearance predicting section 6b will be described with reference to FIG. The above embodiment.
As in 1, the determination of the rise / fall state and the generation of the rise / fall pattern are performed based on various parameters for the thundercloud region extracted from the region determination unit 2, that is, observation data from the meteorological observation means. The above embodiment. In the thundercloud observation system according to No. 1 in order to predict the disappearance from the decline period data of the rise and fall pattern, the rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region must have at least rise and fall data in the fall period as shown in FIG. In the thundercloud observation system according to, the parameters of the disappearance prediction (the rise and fall patterns indicating the rise and fall conditions until the thundercloud area disappears) are extracted by case search, and the disappearance prediction of the thundercloud area extracted based on the extracted rise and fall pattern is performed. Thus, it is possible to predict the disappearance of the thundercloud region from the rise and fall pattern having only the rise and fall data in the development period, and it is possible to realize an early prediction of a lightning strike location, a time zone, and the like.

More specifically, when observation data on the extracted thundercloud region is input, the annihilation prediction unit 6b first registers the observation data input by the case search unit 22 in the case database 21. A search process is performed on the case database 21 based on the observation data. This case search processing is performed by searching for past case data having observation data similar to the input observation data from past case data registered in the case database 21. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 13, the case data is extracted in the order of the highest similarity. FIG. 13 shows past case data extracted by the case search unit 22. In FIG. 13, the top four most similar cases among the past case data having observation data similar to the input observation data are extracted. It shows how it was. In addition, each extracted case data also includes the disappearance information of the thundercloud (extinction time, disappearance probability, etc.) as shown in FIG. For example, no. The case 3 shows that the rise / fall data is, for example, that the thundercloud in that case disappeared 10 minutes after the peak value of the rise / fall data was obtained.

The search result of the case search unit 22 is input to the disappearance prediction determination unit 23, and the disappearance prediction determination unit 23 determines the disappearance information of each case data extracted by the case search unit 22 (the rise and fall until the disappearance). Extinction time, extinction probability, etc., of the observation data input based on the pattern or the like are obtained. For example, when the extinction probability and the extinction probability of the observed thundercloud area based on the case data as shown in FIG. 13 are obtained, the extinction probability after 5 minutes of the observed thundercloud area is 30%, and the extinction probability after 15 minutes. Determines the extinction probability at each predicted extinction time of 75%, etc., and determines the extinction predicted time, which is an extinction probability equal to or higher than a certain threshold value, as the extinction time of the observed thundercloud area from this result (in this example, Then, the extinction probability is set to 95% with the threshold value of 90%.
At which point the extinction is predicted, that is, the extinction point 15 minutes later (FIG. 13
Estimated extinction time of the thundercloud). ).

The result of the determination by the disappearance determination unit 23 (the time of disappearance, the probability of disappearance, etc.) is output to the display processing unit 7, and the display processing unit 7 executes the processing in the above-described embodiment. The display processing is performed as described in 1. The selection of the display content by the display processing unit 7 is performed based on the reliability of the disappearance determination result of the disappearance determination unit 23. Specifically, similarity of past case data extracted by the case search unit 22 is determined. If the degree (for example, the average value is compared) is equal to or more than a predetermined value, it is determined that the extinction time calculated based on the case data has high reliability, and for example, a display image as shown in FIG. When the similarity of the case data is equal to or less than a predetermined value, the disappearance time calculated based on the case data is determined to have low reliability, and the disappearance probability as shown in FIG. The display image to be displayed is displayed on the display unit. As mentioned above,
According to the present embodiment, the same effects as those of the above-described embodiment can be obtained, and the extinction can be predicted based on the rise and fall data during the development period. Therefore, the early lightning strike prediction by the operator can be realized. Note that the prediction of disappearance of the thundercloud region by the case search described in the present embodiment can be applied to the thundercloud observation system according to other embodiments, but the description thereof will be omitted in the following embodiments.

Embodiment 3. Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. Each of the thundercloud observation systems according to the above embodiments uses the rise / fall state of the thundercloud area determined by the rise / fall pattern determining unit 5 only for the disappearance prediction in the disappearance prediction unit 6, but the thundercloud is a convective cloud. And such convective clouds do not simply move in the background wind direction,
There is a problem that the direction of movement depends on the rise and fall situation, so if the future movement position is predicted based only on the past travel history without considering the rise and fall situation, the predicted thundercloud However, there is a possibility that the thundercloud will move in a completely different direction from the direction of the thundercloud that has been tracked so far, and that the thundercloud will move in a direction completely deviated from the actual direction of the thundercloud. Therefore, in this embodiment,
By reflecting the rise / fall state of the thundercloud area determined by the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 not only in the disappearance prediction of the disappearance prediction unit but also in the movement prediction of the movement prediction unit, the prediction of the movement prediction is performed by the thundercloud described in the above embodiment. A thundercloud observation system that can be realized with higher accuracy than the observation system will be described.

FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment. In the present embodiment, the output of the rise and fall pattern determination unit 5 is input to the disappearance prediction unit 6 and also to the movement prediction unit 4c. In FIG. 14, reference numeral 4c denotes a movement prediction unit in the present embodiment. The movement prediction unit 4c is a thundercloud observed from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3 and the rise / fall judgment result of the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 corresponding to the tracking result. The movement prediction is performed for the area. In addition, for example, there is a relationship as shown in FIG. 15 between the rise and fall of the thundercloud region and the movement direction, and the movement prediction unit 4c predicts the movement direction of the thundercloud region based on, for example, the criteria shown in FIG. I do. FIG. 15 is a moving direction explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the rise and fall of the convective cloud and the moving direction.
According to the figure, convective clouds such as thunderclouds tend to move to the right with respect to the direction of the average wind from the generation period to the development period, and to the left from the direction of the average wind from the development period to the decline period. It can be seen that there is a tendency to move in the direction.

Therefore, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, by inputting the rise / fall state of such a thundercloud region to the movement prediction unit 4c, the movement prediction unit 4c based on the tracking result from the tracking processing unit 3. The movement prediction result of the predicted thundercloud movement is corrected and output to the display processing unit 7. As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the movement prediction unit 4 c is observed based on not only the tracking result of the tracking processing unit 3 but also the rising and falling state of the thundercloud region determined by the rising and falling pattern determination unit 5. A thundercloud observation system that can more accurately predict the movement of a convective cloud whose movement direction changes according to the rise and fall conditions, for example, the thundercloud, because it can predict the movement of the thundercloud area Can be realized.

Embodiment 4. Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. In the above-described embodiment, the thundercloud observation system that predicts the movement of the thundercloud region based on the rising and falling state of the thundercloud region determined by the rising and falling pattern determination unit 5 has been described.
As shown in FIG. 15, the moving direction of the thundercloud region greatly changes depending on the rise and fall states. When the moving direction of the thundercloud region suddenly changes as described above, the tracking processing unit provided in the preceding stage is provided. In 3, there is a problem that tracking is lost. Since the tracking processing unit 3 determines that the thundercloud region being tracked has disappeared during the tracking or has moved out of the observation area when the tracking loss occurs, the tracking processing unit 3 ends the tracking process. In such a case, even if the movement prediction unit 4 corrects the prediction of the movement of the thundercloud region based on the rise and fall of the thundercloud region, the tracking process itself is terminated. It is not possible to make an accurate movement prediction for.

As described above, when the thundercloud region that is still in development is lost during tracking, it is necessary to capture this thundercloud region again. The thundercloud area is often already in decline,
It is highly possible that the accuracy of the extinction prediction is significantly degraded. Therefore, in the present embodiment, by performing tracking processing based on the rising and falling state of the thundercloud region determined by the rising and falling pattern determination unit 5, tracking is less likely to be lost in the tracking process of the thundercloud region, and more accurate tracking is performed. A thundercloud observation system that can perform the processing and, consequently, the movement prediction processing will be described.

FIG. 16 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. In FIG.
Indicates a movement prediction unit of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 16, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the rise / fall state of the thundercloud area determined by the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5 is input to the disappearance prediction unit 6 and input to the tracking processing unit 3d. I have. In the drawings, the same reference numerals denote the same or corresponding parts, and a detailed description thereof will be omitted. That is, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is also the same as the above embodiment. 1 or the above embodiment. In this case, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment performs the extinction prediction as shown in FIG. 2 or display processing by the display processing unit 7 based on the extinction prediction. 1 or. In addition to the thundercloud observation system of No. 2, a function for further improving the prediction accuracy of the movement prediction system is newly added.

FIG. 17 is a block diagram showing a specific configuration of the tracking prediction section 3d.
Reference numeral 5 denotes a rising / falling data indicating the rising / falling state of the thundercloud region output from the rising / falling pattern determining unit 5, and a tracking means selecting unit for selecting an optimal tracking means according to the rising / falling data, and 26 denotes a tracking means selecting unit 25. Is a tracking means for performing a tracking process on the thundercloud region extracted from the determination result of the area determination unit 2 by the tracking means selected based on the instruction. As the selected tracking means, a plurality of different types of tracking filters may be prepared, and an optimum one may be selected from these. Also, a tracking means for performing a tracking process by one tracking method is provided. The calculation conditions of the tracking means may be changed so as to be optimum conditions according to the internal state of the thundercloud area, the degree of spread, the state of rise and fall, and the like. Types of tracking filters include an α-β filter and a kalman filter. For example, in the case of tracking processing using Doppler data, a kalman filter is generally used, but also in this case, an optimum one is selected in consideration of the internal state of the thundercloud area, the degree of spread, the rise and fall state, and the like.

Next, the observation operation and the like of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment will be described. The thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is also the same as the above embodiment. 1 or. As in the case of FIG. 2, first, the determination result from the area determination unit 2 is input to the tracking processing unit 3 and the rise / fall pattern determination unit 5, respectively, and the movement prediction system processes (S03, S04) and the disappearance prediction system as shown in FIG. (S05, S06) are performed in parallel. However, as described above, the tracking processing unit 3d of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment includes a tracking unit that performs an optimal thundercloud region tracking process based on the determination result of the rising and falling state of the thundercloud region from the rising and falling pattern determination unit 5. Select (correct the calculation conditions of the tracking means)
The tracking processing is performed on the thundercloud area extracted from the determination result of the area determination unit 2 by the selected (corrected) tracking means.

As described above, according to the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the tracking processing is performed according to the rise and fall of the thundercloud area, so that the thundercloud area that has not yet disappeared can be tracked without causing a tracking error. Processing can be performed, and more accurate tracking processing, and thus, more accurate prediction of the movement of the thundercloud region can be realized. Generally, the direction of movement of the thundercloud region tends to move in the direction of the average wind during the generation period and the decay period as shown in FIG. 15, but in the development period, the direction crosses the direction of the average wind. When the tracking process is performed on the thundercloud region having such a tendency, it is desirable to perform the tracking process on the thundercloud region according to the rise and fall state.

Embodiment. 5. Next, another embodiment of the present invention will be described. In the thundercloud observation system according to the above embodiment, for example, the embodiment.
As in the thundercloud observation system 1, only the processing results of the area determination unit 2, the movement prediction unit 4, the disappearance prediction unit 6, and the like are displayed and processed by the display processing unit 7, for example, as shown in FIG. Although an image is displayed on the display unit 17, weather phenomena such as thunderclouds are generally greatly affected by the terrain on the traveling path. However, if there is a relatively high mountain (specifically, a mountain range, etc.) on the path of the thundercloud, before the thundercloud reaches the predicted disappearance time, A situation occurs in which the stagnation or disappearance occurs due to the influence. Therefore, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, a thundercloud observation system capable of realizing more accurate thundercloud disappearance prediction and lightning strike prediction by further considering topographic information will be described.

FIG. 18 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment. Reference numeral 27 denotes a map data storage unit (hereinafter, referred to as a map data storage unit) storing topographical / map information of an observation area. is there. The terrain / map data stored in the map data storage unit 27 is stored in the display processing unit 7.
e, and displayed on the display unit together with the observation result of the thundercloud as described later. The same reference numerals in the drawings denote the same or corresponding parts, and a detailed description thereof will be omitted. Further, the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment is the same as the embodiment.
Although the thundercloud observation system according to the first embodiment is described as an example, the thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment may be provided in the thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment. Description is omitted.).

Next, the processing contents of the display processing unit 7 of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment will be described. The above embodiment. 1, the processing results of the area determination unit 2, the tracking processing unit 3, the movement prediction unit 4, and the disappearance prediction unit 6 are input to the display processing unit 7e. Topography from map data storage unit 27
The map data is supplied to a display processing unit 7e, and the display processing unit 7
e performs display processing for displaying a terrain / map image based on the supplied terrain / map data on the display unit. For example, the embodiment. In 1, display processing for displaying a display image as shown in FIG. 10 or 11 on the display unit 17 is performed. In the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, for example, a display image as shown in FIG. Are displayed on the display unit.

FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a thundercloud observation result of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment. In the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the topography around the observed thundercloud area is shown. The map information is displayed on the display unit 17 as a two-dimensional or three-dimensional display image as shown in FIG. As a result, the operator monitoring the thundercloud can recognize on the display unit 17 what position the actual thundercloud is passing through. For example,
Reference numeral 28 denotes terrain information (hereinafter, referred to as mountain range) displayed on the display unit 17 based on the terrain / map data supplied from the map data storage unit 24. In the display example shown in FIG. After the predetermined time elapses, the mountain range 2
7 is displayed. As described above, in the display processing unit 7e of the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display processing unit 7e according to the above-described embodiment. In addition to the display processing similar to the display processing unit 7 in FIG. 1, the display processing based on the map data supplied from the map data storage unit 27 is performed. As a result, a display image as shown in FIG. Is done.

Next, the specific processing contents of the display processing section 7e will be described. That is, the display processing unit 7 e is
Has a function of changing the extinction probability of the thundercloud region 15 predicted at the time based on the topographical information displayed on the display unit 17. In the thundercloud observation system according to this embodiment, the extinction prediction unit 6 predicts the extinction probability. The determined disappearance probability is changed by the topographical / map data supplied from the map data storage unit 27 and displayed on the display unit 17. For example, in the display example illustrated in FIG. 17, the display processing unit 7 e determines the thundercloud region 15 when the predicted thundercloud region 15 moves on the movement locus 16 and crosses the mountain range 27 displayed on the display unit 17. Is determined, and the disappearance probability of the thundercloud region 15 predicted to disappear based on the determination result is changed.

For example, when a weather phenomenon such as a thundercloud collides with a slope of a mountain during its movement, rain falls on the slope of the colliding mountain, and disappears or largely declines when passing through the mountain. Sometimes. The display processing unit 7e can obtain in advance the scale of the thundercloud, the moving speed, the altitude of the passing mountain range, and the like, so that it is determined how much the thundercloud passing through the mountain range 25 has changed its rise and fall conditions. Area 1 after passing through the mountains 25 based on
5 is displayed on the display unit 17. In the display example shown in FIG. 19, the extinction probability of the thundercloud region 15 passing through the mountain range 27 is determined to be 90% and 95%.

As described above, in the thundercloud observation system according to the present embodiment, the display unit 1 combines the observation result of the observed thundercloud with the topography and map information around the observed thundercloud area.
7, the operator can recognize on the map displayed on the display unit 17 what position the observed thundercloud is moving, and the displayed map. Since the extinction probability of the thundercloud region changed based on the information is displayed on the display unit 17, more accurate extinction prediction can be realized. As a result, a more accurate movement prediction can be realized without predicting the movement of a thundercloud that has already disappeared.

[0067]

According to the first aspect of the present invention, an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area based on observation data from weather observation means, and a tracking result of the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section. A movement prediction unit for predicting a movement position of the thundercloud region, a rise / fall pattern determining unit for determining a rise / fall state of the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit, and generating a rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region, Based on the rise / fall pattern output from the judgment unit, a disappearance prediction unit is provided to predict the rise / fall status until the thundercloud region disappears, so that the observed rise / fall status until the observed thundercloud region disappears is accurately recognized. It is possible to accurately determine the location, time zone, and time of disappearance of a lightning strike in the thundercloud area, and to provide a more accurate lightning strike warning.

According to the second aspect of the present invention, an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area based on observation data from weather observation means, and the thundercloud based on the tracking result of the thundercloud area judged by this area judging section. A movement prediction unit for predicting the movement position of the area, a rise / fall pattern determining unit for determining a rise / fall state of the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit, and generating a rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region, and a map in the observation region. Since a storage unit for storing information and an annihilation prediction unit for estimating a rise / fall state until the thundercloud region disappears from the map information and the rise / fall pattern stored in the storage unit are provided, a movement route of the thundercloud region is provided. Even if there is a mountain range that controls the rise and fall of the thundercloud, the rise and fall conditions until the observed thundercloud area disappears can be accurately recognized, and the location, time zone, and time of the lightning strike in the thundercloud area of Exact determination can further provide a more accurate lightning warning.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, the prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are input, respectively.
Since the display processing unit for hiding the prediction result of the movement prediction unit after the disappearance of the thundercloud region predicted by the disappearance prediction unit and displaying the result on the display unit is provided, the operator who monitors the thundercloud region displays the result. The exact point of disappearance of the thundercloud region can be easily recognized on the part, and erroneous judgment can be made as to the observed lightning strike location, time zone, and disappearance point of the thundercloud region.

According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are input, respectively.
Since the display processing unit for displaying the thundercloud area disappearance probability together with the thundercloud area movement predicted position displayed on the display unit is provided, an operator who monitors the thundercloud area observes based on the thundercloud area disappearance probability. It is possible to more accurately determine the location, time zone, and disappearance point of the lightning strike in the thundercloud area.

According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, a display processing unit is provided for displaying either the disappearance probability of the thundercloud region or the disappearance time of the thundercloud region on the display unit according to the prediction reliability of the disappearance prediction unit. Therefore, the operator who monitors the thundercloud area,
Judgment can be made in consideration of the prediction error from the result of the prediction of the disappearance of the thundercloud region with low reliability, and it is possible to prevent an erroneous decision about the observed lightning strike location, time zone, and disappearance time point of the thundercloud region.

According to the sixth aspect of the present invention, an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area based on observation data from weather observation means, and tracking for performing a tracking process on the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section. A processing unit, a rise and fall situation determination unit that determines the rise and fall situation for the thundercloud area determined by the area determination unit, based on the rise and fall situation determined by the rise and fall situation determination unit and the tracking result of the tracking processing unit. And the movement prediction unit for predicting the movement position of the thundercloud area, it is possible to accurately recognize the observed movement position of the thundercloud area, and the lightning strike location, time zone, and disappearance time of the thundercloud area in the thundercloud area Accurate judgment and even more accurate lightning strike warning can be provided.

According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, an area judging section for judging a thundercloud area based on observation data from weather observation means, and a rise / fall state of the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section are judged. A tracking process for performing a tracking process on the thundercloud region determined by the region determining unit using a tracking means or a tracking processing method selected based on the rise and fall situation determined by the rise and fall status determination unit. And a movement prediction unit for predicting the movement position of the thundercloud region from the tracking result of the tracking processing unit, so that unnecessary tracking deviation in the tracking process is prevented to accurately observe the observed movement position of the thundercloud region. It is possible to accurately determine the location, time zone, and time of disappearance of a lightning strike in the thundercloud area, and to provide a more accurate lightning strike warning.

According to the eighth aspect of the present invention, the disappearance estimating unit includes a database for registering the rise and fall patterns of various thundercloud regions as search data, and a rise and fall pattern judgment unit among the rise and fall patterns registered in the database. Search means for extracting a rise / fall pattern similar to the rise / fall pattern of the extracted thundercloud region, and a rise / fall state until the thundercloud region generated by the rise / fall pattern determination unit based on the rise / fall pattern data extracted by the search unit disappears Since it has an extinguishing judgment unit that predicts the rise and fall situation until the thundercloud area disappears from the rise and fall pattern without the rise and fall data of the fall period, the early lightning strike location, time zone and disappearance time Judgment, and an earlier warning of lightning strike.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the observation state of a thundercloud by the weather radar device.

FIG. 3 is an operation flowchart showing a processing content of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1;

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a time relationship such as a thundercloud observation cycle, a tracking cycle, and a predicted movement time of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1;

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram of a movement prediction process showing a result of a movement prediction process of a thundercloud region of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1;

FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a specific configuration of a rise and fall pattern determination unit.

FIG. 7 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a specific configuration of an annihilation prediction unit.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of a rise and fall pattern showing an example of a rise and fall pattern of a thundercloud generated by a rise and fall pattern determination unit.

FIG. 9 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a specific configuration of a display processing unit.

FIG. 10 is a display example explanatory diagram showing an image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1;

FIG. 11 is a display example explanatory diagram showing another image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 1;

FIG. 12 is a block diagram illustrating another specific configuration of the disappearance prediction unit.

FIG. 13 is a registration case explanatory diagram showing a registration case searched by the disappearance prediction unit shown in FIG. 12;

FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 15 is a moving direction explanatory diagram showing a relationship between a rising and falling state of a convective cloud and a moving direction.

FIG. 16 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 17 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a specific configuration of a tracking processing unit illustrated in FIG. 16;

FIG. 18 is a block diagram showing a thundercloud observation system according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 19 is a display example explanatory diagram showing an image display example of the thundercloud observation system shown in FIG. 18;

[Explanation of symbols]

 REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 1 data integration processing unit 2 area determination unit 3, 3 d tracking processing unit 4, 4 c movement prediction unit 5 rise and fall pattern determination unit 6, 6 b disappearance prediction unit 7, 7 e display processing unit 21 case database 22 case search unit 23 disappearance determination unit 24 Map data storage

 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (72) Inventor Kuri Tanaka 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Inside Mitsui Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Masayoshi 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Inside Mitsui Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Wakasa Kise 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Mitsui Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Hiromori Nomura 2-5-2, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo F term (reference) in Mitsubishi Electric Engineering Co., Ltd.

Claims (8)

[Claims] An area determining unit that determines a thundercloud area from observation data of a weather observation unit; and a movement prediction unit that predicts a moving position of the thundercloud area from a tracking result of the thundercloud area determined by the area determining unit. The rise and fall situation is determined for the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit, a rise and fall pattern determination unit that generates a rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud region, and based on the rise and fall pattern output from the rise and fall pattern determination unit. A thundercloud observation system comprising: a disappearance prediction unit that predicts a rise and fall situation until the thundercloud region disappears. 2. A region judging unit for judging a thundercloud region from observation data of a meteorological observation means, and a movement estimating unit for estimating a moving position of the thundercloud region from a tracking result of the thundercloud region judged by the region judging unit. A rise / fall pattern determining unit that determines a rise / fall state of the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit, and generates a rise / fall pattern of the thundercloud region; a storage unit that stores map information in the observation region; A extinction predicting unit for estimating a rise / fall state until the thundercloud area disappears from the map information and the rise / fall pattern stored in the storm cloud observation system. 3. The prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are input, and the prediction results of the movement prediction unit after the disappearance of the thundercloud region predicted by the disappearance prediction unit are hidden. The thundercloud observation system according to claim 1, further comprising a display processing unit configured to display the thundercloud on the display unit. 4. A display process in which prediction results of the movement prediction unit and the disappearance prediction unit are input, respectively, and a display of a probability of disappearance of the thundercloud region is displayed at a movement prediction position of the thundercloud region displayed on a display unit. The thundercloud observation system according to claim 1, further comprising a unit. 5. A display processing unit for displaying, on a display unit, either the disappearance probability of the thundercloud region or the disappearance time of the thundercloud region according to the prediction reliability of the disappearance prediction unit. A thundercloud observation system according to claim 1 or claim 2. 6. An area determining unit for determining a thundercloud area from observation data of a weather observation means, a tracking processing unit for performing tracking processing on the thundercloud area determined by the area determining unit,
A rising / falling state judging unit for judging a rising / falling state of the thundercloud region determined by the region judging unit, and the thundercloud region based on the rising / falling state determined by the rising / falling state judging unit and the tracking result of the tracking processing unit. And a movement prediction unit for predicting a movement position of the thundercloud. 7. An area judging section for judging a thundercloud area from observation data of a meteorological observation means, a rising / falling state judging section for judging a rise / fall state of the thundercloud area judged by the area judging section, and a rising / falling state judging section. A tracking processing unit that performs a tracking process on the thundercloud region determined by the region determination unit using the tracking unit or the tracking processing method selected based on the rise and fall situation determined by the processing unit, and a tracking result of the tracking processing unit. A thundercloud observation system, comprising: a movement prediction unit that predicts a movement position of the thundercloud region. 8. The disappearance prediction unit includes a database for registering rise and fall patterns of various lightning cloud areas as search data, and a rise and fall pattern of the thundercloud area generated by the rise and fall pattern determination unit among the rise and fall patterns registered in the database. Search means for extracting a rise and fall pattern similar to the, and a disappearance determination unit for predicting the rise and fall situation until the thundercloud region generated by the rise and fall pattern determination unit based on the rise and fall data extracted by the search means until disappearance The thundercloud observation system according to claim 1, wherein the thundercloud observation system comprises: