JP2000288874A - Method of calculating production planning quantity of commodities - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To correct each production planning quantity from the period N+1 and on by obtaining a new production planning quantity of the period (N+i; i=M) from the back calculation of the calculating expression in which the delivery required quantity of the period (N+i: i=M) is established. SOLUTION: The production planning numerical quantity SKn+m of the period N+M is taken as the delivery required numerical quantity Hn+m required by a sales store during the period N+M. Further, such delivery required numerical quantity Hn+m during the period N+M is considered to be established by an add expression of delivery numerical quantity from the production actual numerical quantity SZn-2 of N-2, delivery numerical quantity from the production actual numerical quantity SZn-1 of N-1, delivery numerical quantity from new production planning numerical quantity SKn of the period N, delivery numerical quantity from new production planning numerical quantity SKn+1 of the period N+1, and the delivery numerical quantity from new production planning numerical quantity SKn+m of N+M. Accordingly, new production planning numerical quantity SKn+m of the period N+M is obtained by the back calculation of the add expression to correct the production planning numerical quantity.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method for calculating a planned production quantity of a product such as a passenger car in which the length of time required from order receipt to sales greatly varies.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, for a product such as a passenger car, the length of time required from order receipt to sale may fluctuate greatly. A method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product in consideration of this situation includes, for example, There is a method for calculating the production planning quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036. The method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. Hei 8-200036 is one of the technologies on which the present invention is based,
Since it is indispensable for understanding the present invention, its outline will be described here.

First, FIG. 7 shows a hardware configuration of a system for performing a method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product disclosed in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036. As shown in FIG.
The hardware configuration is an ordinary computer system. That is, the server computer 123 serving as the host computer is provided with the CPU 121 serving as the arithmetic means.
And a disk 122 as storage means.
Similarly, the client computer 128, which is a client-side computer, has a CPU
It comprises a disk 125 as storage means. The CPU 121 and the CPU 125 are communicably connected by a network 127 such as an ISDN line. An input / output terminal 124 is connected to the CPU 125.

Next, the configuration of a program stored in the disk 22 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG.
1 shows the configuration of a system for performing a method of calculating a planned production quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036. A predicted order quantity input means 111 for inputting a predicted order quantity (corresponding to “predicted order quantity”) for which orders are estimated for each period is connected to the plan information storage means 112. Here, the predicted number of orders for passenger cars is separately obtained from market trends and the like, and is input to the present system.

[0005] A sales / production planning unit 113 is connected to the planning information storage unit 112. The sales / production planning unit 113 is connected to a result output unit 116. In addition, the sales information / production planning unit 113 is connected to an actual information storage unit 114. The sales / production planning unit 113 is connected to a production condition input storage unit 115.

Next, FIG. 8 shows specific contents such as a period, an actual quantity, and a planned quantity used in the present system. The period is divided by a predetermined length (here, “month”), and the period including the present is N. N + 1, N + 2, ...
Indicates a future period, which is a period for which a sales plan and a production plan are to be drafted. Also, N-1, N-2,... Are past periods, and are periods during which each actual quantity is collected.

In the period N, the planned number of sales HKn (corresponding to "planned sales quantity"), the planned production number SKn (corresponding to "planned production quantity"), and the predicted number of orders JYn ( Estimated order quantity), planned inventory quantity ZKn (equivalent to inventory plan quantity), planned back-order quantity CKn (planned order quantity)
Is stored.

Similarly, in the period N + 1, the period N + 1
HKn + 1, planned production volume SKn +
1. The predicted order quantity JYn + 1, the planned inventory quantity ZKn + 1, and the planned back order quantity CKn + 1 are stored.

In the period N-1, the actual sales volume HZn-1 (corresponding to the "sales actual volume") and the actual production volume SZn-1 (the "production actual volume") in the period N-1. Equivalent), actual order quantity JZn-1 (equivalent to "actual order quantity"), actual inventory quantity ZZn-1
(Equivalent to "actual inventory quantity"), actual backlog quantity C
Zn-1 (corresponding to the "actual backlog quantity") is stored.

Next, the processing procedure of the method for calculating the production planned quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating a processing procedure of the present system. First, in the first step (hereinafter, referred to as “S”) 101, the input of the actual number of each of the five elements (orders, backlogs, sales, inventory, and production) is performed. The separately calculated actual numbers are transmitted from the actual information storage unit 114 in FIG. 6 to the sales / production plan planning unit 113 as the actual numbers before the period N-1 in FIG. Specifically, information stored in the disk 122 of the server computer 123 on the host side in FIG.
7 is transmitted to the CPU 125 of the client computer 128 on the client side. As a result, FIG.
Speaking of ..., the actual number of inventory Z in the period N-2
Zn-2, number of backlogged units CZn-2 in period N-2, period N-1
Production number SZn-1 in the period N-1
Zn-1, the actual number of units sold in the period N-1 HZn-1, the period N-1
Actual number of units in stock ZZn-1 and actual number of backlogs C in period N-1
The value of Zn-1 is prepared.

Next, in S102, a planned production planned number is input. The planned production quantity already in the implementation stage (the production planned quantity SKn in the period N in FIG. 8) is shown in FIG.
Is transmitted to the sales / production planning unit 113 from the planning information storage unit 112. Specifically, information stored in the disk 122 of the server computer 123 on the host side shown in FIG. 7 is transmitted to the CPU 125 of the client computer 128 on the client side via the host CPU 121 and the network 127. Thereby, referring to FIG. 8, the production planned number SK in the period N
The value of n is prepared.

Next, in S103, the predicted order quantity is input. The estimated number of orders received separately is input from the predicted number of orders input unit 111 in FIG. 6 as the predicted number of orders from the period N, the period N + 1 to the necessary period in FIG. -It is transmitted to the production planning unit 113. Specifically, the disk 122 of the host-side server computer 123 in FIG.
Is stored in the host CPU 12.
1. It is transmitted to the CPU 125 of the client computer 128 on the client side via the network 127. As a result, referring to FIG. 8, the predicted number of orders JYn in the period N, the predicted number of orders JYn + 1 in the period N + 1,...
・ The value of is prepared.

Next, in S104, the number of planned backlogs is determined. Here, the planned number of unscheduled vehicles from the period N, N + 1 to the required period is calculated. The planned number of unscheduled vehicles after the period N is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 113 in FIG. 6 based on the following relational expression (1). Planned number of backlog CKn in period N = backlog rate corresponding to period N × predicted number of orders received in period N JYn Relational expression (1) Specifically, CPU 125 of client computer 128 on the client side in FIG. And is displayed on the input / output terminal 124. As a result, in FIG. 8, the values of the planned number of unscheduled vehicles CKn in the period N, the planned number of unscheduled vehicles CKn + 1 in the period N + 1, and the like are obtained.

Next, in S105, the planned sales volume is determined. Here, the planned sales volume from the period N, N + 1 to the required period is calculated. The planned sales volume HKn in the period N is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 113 in FIG. 6 using the following relational expression (2). Planned number of sales HKn in period N = actual number of back-orders CZn-1 in period N-1 + projected number of orders received in period NJYn−planned number of back-orders planned CKn in period N ... Relational expression (2) Are based on the following relational expression (3).
13 is calculated. The planned number of sales HKn + 1 in the period N + 1 = the planned number of back orders CZn in the period N + the predicted number of orders JYn + 1 in the period N + 1−the planned number of back orders CKn + 1 in the period N + 1 Relational expression (3) 8, the values of the planned number of sales HKn in the period N, the planned number of sales HKn + 1 in the period N + 1, and the like are obtained.

Next, in step S106, the planned inventory quantity is determined. Here, the planned number of stocks from the period N, N + 1 to the required period is calculated. The planned inventory number ZKn in the period N is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 113 in FIG. 6 using the following relational expression (4). Inventory planned number ZKn of period N = Inventory actual number ZZn-1 of period N-1 + Production planned number SKn of period N-Sales planned number HKn of period N ... Relational expression (4) Based on the following relational expression (5), the planned number of inventories is calculated based on the sales / production planning unit 1 shown in FIG.
13 is calculated. The planned number of vehicles ZKn + 1 in the period N + 1 = the stock ratio corresponding to the period N + 1 × the planned number of sales HKn + 1 in the period N + 1 relational expression (5). The value of the number of units ZKn, the planned number of units ZKn + 1,... In the period N + 1 is obtained.

Next, in S107, a production planned number is determined. Here, the planned production number from the period N + 1 to the required period is calculated. Each production planned number after the period N + 1 is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 113 in FIG. 6 based on the following relational expression (6). The planned number of production SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 = the planned number of sales HKn + 1 in the period N + 1—the planned number of inventory ZKn in the period N + the planned number of inventory ZKn + 1 in the period N + 1 Relational expression (6) In other words, the value of the planned production number SKn + 1,... For the period N + 1 is obtained.

Next, in S108, the effect of the planned production on the operation status is calculated. Here, S101 to S101
A display is made as to whether or not the planned production quantity from the period N + 1 to the required time determined by the procedure of 107 matches the production operation status. At this time, after the period N + 1 stored in the production condition input storage means 115 of FIG. 6, the number of operating days, the operating time, the predicted value of the operating rate, the planned value of the line tact, the correspondence between the product and the production line and the ratio are obtained. used.

Here, the number of operating days in the period N + 1 is n [days],
The operation time is ω [min / day], the predicted value of the operation rate is r, and the line tact of the line where this product is produced is m [min
/ Unit], a [%] is the ratio of this product made out of all products made in this line, and X [unit] is the planned number of production units in period N + 1. The excess / deficiency Y [minute / day] is represented by the following relational expression (7). Y [minute / day] = (ω−X · m / n · r) × 100 / a (7) This value is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 113 in FIG. 6 and the result output unit Indicated by 116. When the excess or deficiency Y is positive, that is, when idle occurs in the production, the amount of the loss can be obtained by multiplying the hour rate (cost per minute) of this line. Also,
If the excess or deficiency is negative, it indicates an overload, but it is determined whether or not this is within the flexibility of production due to overtime or the like. Ultimately, whether or not to adopt this production plan is determined by a person based on the planned number of units in stock and the excess or deficiency Y of production, and a correction (different from “correction” for the purpose of the present invention) is required In this case, the procedure returns to any of the procedures in S104 to S108, some changes are performed, and the same processing is executed.

Next, in S109, the display and storage of the planned number are performed. Here, by the procedure up to S108,
After the production planned number is finally determined, the result is output by the result output unit 116 of FIG. 6 in the table format of FIG. Further, those results are stored in the plan information storage unit 1 shown in FIG.
12 is stored. Specifically, the information on the CPU 125 of the client computer 128 on the client side in FIG. 7 is stored in the disk 22 of the server computer 123 via the network 127 by the CPU 121 of the server computer 123 on the host side. As a result, referring to FIG. 8, the predicted number of orders JYn in the period N, the predicted number of orders JYn + 1 in the period N + 1, the planned number of backlogs CKn in the period N, the planned number of backlogs CKn + 1 in the period N + 1, The planned sales quantity HKn, the planned sales quantity HKn + 1 for the period N + 1, the planned inventory quantity ZKn for the duration N, the planned inventory quantity ZKn + 1 for the duration N + 1, and the planned production quantity SKn + 1 for the duration N + 1 are stored.

Accordingly, in the method of calculating the production planned quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036, at the time of the period N (at the time of planning), the respective production planned numbers after the period N + 1 are expressed by a relational expression ( Since it is calculated based on 6), for a passenger car in which the length of the time required from order receipt to sales greatly fluctuates due to sales and the load and constraints of the production factory, the fluctuation is predicted to accurately predict the production quantity. can do.

[0021]

However, in the method of calculating the planned production quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036, as described above, the length of the date required from order receipt to sales is large. Although fluctuations were taken into account, the length of the deadline required for delivery from the completion of production to the dealer was not taken into account at all. In other words, for example, as shown by the relational expression (6), it has been a precondition that a passenger car can be sold as soon as it is produced.

For such preconditions, for example, FIG.
As for the period, since the period N-2, the period N-1, the period N, and the period N + 1 are separated by "month", the length of the date required for the delivery from the completion of the production to the store is 2-3 days. If so, even if the precondition is not satisfied, the period N + 1
The impact on each production plan thereafter can be said to be completely negligible. However, with respect to the "month" which is a reference for separating the period N-2, the period N-1, the period N, and the period N + 1,
If the length of time required for delivery from the completion of production to the dealer is longer, such preconditions cannot be satisfied,
There was a problem that the respective production planned units after the period N + 1 did not become the really necessary quantities.

In particular, in the recent automobile industry, there are cases where a passenger car produced overseas is imported and sold at a dealer in Japan, or a passenger car produced domestically is exported, further processed overseas and further imported. The number of cases sold at retail stores in Japan is increasing. In these cases and the like, it usually takes several months for the delivery from the completion of production to delivery to a store. Therefore, for example, since the passenger cars produced in the period N may be delivered to the dealer after the period N + 1, the reliability of each planned production number after the period N + 1 becomes extremely low.

The method for calculating the planned production quantity of a product such as a passenger car, for which the length of the period required from order receipt to sales varies greatly, is described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036. In addition to the method of calculating the quantity, there is also a method of calculating the production planned quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 9-285027, and the calculation of the production planned quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 9-285027 is described. The method has a similar problem.

The present invention has been made in order to solve the above-described problems, and has been developed in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of production of a product to a store may take a plurality of periods. It is an object of the present invention to provide a method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product for correcting each production plan quantity after N + 1.

[0026]

Means for Solving the Problems According to the first aspect of the present invention, which has been made to achieve this object, a production actual quantity and an order actual quantity totaled for each period (N + i: i ≦ -1) are provided. , Sales actual quantity, inventory actual quantity, backlog actual quantity, estimated order quantity estimated for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), and notes corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) Each period has a remaining rate, an inventory rate corresponding to the period (N + i: i ≧ 1), and a production plan quantity for a planned period (N + i: i = 0).
(N + i: i ≧ 0) and the planned sales quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) and the planned inventory quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) Later, by calculating the production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1), the production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) is calculated for the period (N
+ i: i = 0) is a method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product at the time of (N + i: i = M).
And the required delivery quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) and the delivery quantity from the actual production quantity for each period (N + i: i ≦ -1) and the planned period ( (N + i: i = 0) and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: 1 ≤ i ≤ M) By calculating the new production plan quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) from the above addition formula, the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) is calculated. Is performed.

The invention according to claim 2 is characterized in that the period (N + i: i
≤ -1) Production volume, order volume, sales volume, inventory volume, backlog volume, order volume, and estimated for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) The forecasted order quantity, the backlog rate corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), the production plan quantity for the planned period (N + i: i = 0), and the period (N + i: i ≧ 0) and the unallocated inventory next period sales ratio corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) and each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) Has a production allocatable ratio corresponding to the sales plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≥ 0) and the sales plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≥ 0).
+ i: i = 0) and the inventory plan quantity for each period (N + i: i
≧ 1) and the inventory plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) are alternately calculated to calculate the production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1). (N + i: i = 0), and the calculated production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) is calculated as the order plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1). This is a method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product to be handled, in which the production plan quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) is regarded as the required delivery quantity for the period (N + i: i = M), and the period (N + (i: i = M) is required for each period (N + i: i
≤-1) Each delivery quantity from the actual production quantity and the planned period
(N + i: i = 0) and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: 1 ≤ i ≤ M) The period (N
(i + i: i = M) to calculate a new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1).

According to a third aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to the first or second aspect, wherein the production result of each period (N + i: i ≦ -1) is obtained. Delivery quantity from quantity and new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: 1 ≦ i ≦ M) from new production plan quantity for planned period (N + i: i = 0) Is determined using the distribution ratio of the latest period in which all of the actual production quantities are delivered in each period (N + i: i ≦ -1).

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to any one of the first to third aspects, wherein each of the periods (N + i: i ≧ 1 ), Before calculating the new production plan quantity, the planned period (N + i: i = 0)
The new production plan quantity is corrected taking into account the delay or advance of the current production plan. According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to any one of the first to fourth aspects, wherein a new period of time (N + i: i = M) is provided. When the production plan quantity is less than “0”, the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ M) is set to “0”.

The method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention having the above-described structure is performed first in the period N including the present.
At the point of time (equivalent to “period (N + i: i = 0)”) (at the time of planning), the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036, or 9-2850
Using the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product described in No. 27, each period N + 1, N + 2,.
i: i ≧ 1)) is calculated.

At this time, the method of calculating the planned production quantity of the product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036 and the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Application No.
In the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product described in No. 285027, it is assumed that the product can be sold as soon as it is produced, and all the products produced in the period are delivered during the period. I believe that. However, if the delivery from the completion of the production of the product to the store may take a plurality of periods, the product produced in each period before the period may be delivered in the period, All or part of the products produced in the period may be delivered in each period after the period.

Therefore, in the method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention, the period N + M
The production plan quantity for (period (N + i: i = M)) is regarded as the required delivery quantity required by the dealer in the duration N + M, and the required delivery quantity for the duration N + M is Each period ..., N-2, N-1 ("Each period (N + i: i≤-1)"
), Each delivery quantity from the actual production quantity of
It is assumed that the formula is established by the addition formula of the delivery quantity from the new production planning quantity in the planned period N and the delivery quantity from the new production planning quantity in the periods N + 1,..., N + M.

Thus, the periods N, N + 1,..., N +
The new production plan quantity of M is a production plan quantity in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the product to the store may take a plurality of periods. Therefore, by calculating the new production plan quantity in the period N + M from this addition formula in reverse, the period from the completion of the production of the product to delivery to the store may take a plurality of periods to consider the period N + 1. The subsequent production plan quantities can be corrected (calculation of each new production plan quantity after the period N + 1).

It should be noted that the new production planned quantity of the planned period N is the same as that of the present invention at the time of the past period N-1 (corresponding to "period (N + i: i = -1)"). Use the product calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product. Also, the period N +
The new production plan quantities of 1,..., N + M−1 use the ones calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention at the time of the period N including the present time (at the time of planning). .

For example, regarding the required delivery quantity in the period N + 1, the respective delivery quantities from the actual production quantities in the respective periods..., N−2, and N−1, and the new production plan quantity in the planned period N And the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1.
Here, the required delivery quantity in the period N + 1 is regarded as the production plan quantity in the period N + 1.
A new production plan quantity of +1 can be calculated backward. As a result, a new production plan quantity in the case of M = 1 in the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated.

As the new planned production quantity for the planned period N, the one calculated by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product of the present invention at the past period N-1 is used.

As for the required delivery quantity in the period N + 2, each delivery quantity from the actual production quantity in each period..., N-2, and N-1 and the new production plan quantity in the planned period N , The delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1, and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 2. Here, the required delivery quantity in the period N + 2 is regarded as the production plan quantity in the period N + 2.
The new production plan quantity can be calculated backward.
As a result, a new production plan quantity in the case of M = 2 in the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated.

As the new planned production quantity in the planned period N, the one calculated by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product of the present invention at the past period N-1 is used.
Further, the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1 is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention (period (N + i: i) at the time of the period N including the present time (at the time of planning).
= M) and M = 1).

As for the required delivery quantity in the period N + 3, each delivery quantity from the actual production quantity in each period..., N-2, and N-1 and the new production plan quantity in the planned period N , The delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1, the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 2, and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 3. It will be established. here,
Since the required delivery quantity in the period N + 3 is regarded as the production plan quantity in the period N + 3, a new production plan quantity in the period N + 3 can be obtained from this addition formula. As a result, a new production plan quantity in the case of M = 3 in the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated.

As the new planned production quantity in the planned period N, the one calculated by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product of the present invention in the past period N-1 is used.
Further, the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1 is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention (period (N + i: i) at the time of the period N including the present time (at the time of planning).
= M) and M = 1). Also, period N
The new production plan quantity of +2 is calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention at the time of the period N including the present (at the time of planning) (period (N + i: i = M) And M = 2
In the case of).

In the same manner, new production planned quantities up to a necessary period are sequentially obtained in the same manner. Thereby, each period N + 1, N is considered in consideration of a case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the product to the store may take a plurality of periods.
+2,... New production plan quantities can be calculated. Then, the new production plan quantities in the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Are replaced with the production plan quantities in the periods N + 1, N + 2,.

As described above, in the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention, the production plan quantity of the period N + M is
, And the required delivery quantity for the period N + M is the delivery quantity from the actual production quantity for each period..., N−2, and N−1, and the new production plan for the planned period N. Delivery quantity from quantity and period N + 1, ..., N + M
And the delivery quantity from the new production planning quantity is calculated, and the new production planning quantity for the period N + M is calculated back from this addition formula. In consideration of the case where the delivery of a plurality of production plans may pass through a plurality of periods, the production plan quantities after the period N + 1 are corrected (calculation and replacement of new production plan quantities in the respective periods N + 1, N + 2,...). be able to.

Each of the delivery quantities from the actual production quantities in each of the periods..., N-2 and N-1, the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the planned period N, N +
2,..., The delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity of N + M, and the distribution ratio of the latest term in which all of the actual production quantities among the term. , Since the distribution ratio is closest to the current state, the new period of each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention is used. The reliability of the production planning quantity can be improved.

The new planned production quantity of the planned period N is calculated by the method of the present invention for calculating the production planned quantity of the product in the past period N-1. At the time of period N (at the time of planning),
If the current production plan is compensated for by delay or advance, the new production plan quantity in the planned period N becomes the closest to the current situation. Each calculated period N + 1, N + 2,...
The new production plan quantity can be more reliable.

When the new production plan quantity of the period N + M is calculated backward, and the new production plan quantity of the period N + M is less than “0”, the period after the period N + M (“each period ( N + i: i ≧ M) ”) means that it is unnecessary. Therefore, by setting the new production plan quantity after the period N + M to“ 0 ”, each new production plan after the period N + M Since the quantity is in line with reality, the reliability of the new production plan quantity for each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention can be improved. .

[0046]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. The method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment is described in Japanese Patent Application No. Hei.
In the method of calculating the planned production quantity of a product described in No. 2000036, the calculated production planned number is corrected. Therefore, the outline of the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product of the present embodiment is the same as the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036 described in the section of the prior art. Since it has already been described in the section of the prior art, a detailed description thereof will be omitted. 5 to 8 described in the section of the related art are used in FIGS. 1 to 4 referred to in the description of this section.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, in the method of calculating the production planning quantity of the product according to the present embodiment, S101 to S107 and S108 to S109 are described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-200003 described in the section of the prior art.
The same processing as the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product described in No. 6 is performed (see FIG. 5). That is, the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present embodiment is different from the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036 described in the section of the prior art in S107 and S108. The process of correcting the production planned number in S10 performed between the steps is added.

The process of correcting the production planned number in S10 is provided in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. Thus, here, the concept of correcting the planned production quantity will be described with reference to FIG.

First, the number of planned production units in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods is taken as the new planned number of production units. FIG.
However, in the period N including the present, the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment is performed (at the time of planning). Therefore, the new production planned number S in the period N-1
Kn−1, the new production planned number SKn of the period N (corresponding to “the new production planned quantity of the planned period (N + i: i = 0)”) is the production of the product of the present embodiment. It has already been determined by the method of calculating the planned quantity. Also, ..., period N-
The actual production number SZn-3, the actual production number SZn-2 in the period N-2, and the actual production number SZn-1 in the period N-1 have already been tabulated.

On the other hand, the new planned production number S for the period N + 1
Kn + 1, new production plan number SKn + 2 in period N + 2, ...
Is calculated by performing the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment in the period N (at the time of planning) including the present.

Considering the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods,
The period N determined in S107 of the flowchart of FIG.
+1 of the production plan number SKn + 1 in the period N + 2, the production plan number SKn + 2 of the period N + 2,.
In the above, it can be said that the number of passenger cars required for the sale at the store is required (equivalent to the "required quantity"). Therefore, the planned production number S for the period N + 1 determined in S107 of the flowchart of FIG.
.. Can be regarded as the values of the required number of deliveries Hn + 1 in the period N + 1 and the required number of deliveries Hn + 2 in the period N + 2. it can.

Then,..., The actual production number SZn-3 in the period N-3, the actual production number SZn-2 in the period N-2, and the period N
-1, the actual production number SZn-1, the new production planned number SKn in the period N, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1,
A new production plan number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2,.
The relationship between the required number of deliveries Hn + 1 in the period N + 1, the required number of deliveries Hn + 2 in the period N + 2, and so on is considered as follows.

That is, for example, in the period N + 1, it is assumed that the distribution ratio T0 of the new planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 is delivered to the store. It is also assumed that the distribution ratio T-1 of the new planned production number SKn in the period N is delivered to the store. It is also assumed that the distribution ratio T-2 of the actual production number SZn-1 in the period N-1 is delivered to the store. It is also assumed that the distribution ratio T-3 of the actual production number SZn-2 in the period N-2 is delivered to the store. It is also assumed that the distribution ratio T-4 of the actual production number SZn-3 in the period N-3 is delivered to the store. Hereinafter, it is also assumed that the actual production volume before the period N-4 is similarly delivered to the dealer as necessary according to the actual situation.

Therefore, the required number of deliveries Hn + 1 in the period N + 1
Can be expressed by the following relational expression (8). Required number of deliveries Hn + 1 = Period N + 1 =... + Production actual number SZn−3 × Distribution ratio T−4 + Period N−2 Production actual number SZn−2 × Distribution ratio T−3 + Period N -1 actual production number SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-2 + new production planned number SKn x distribution ratio T-1 + new production planned number SKn + 1 x period N0 in period N + 1 ... Equation (8)

From the relational expression (8), the new planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 is represented by the relational expression (9). New production planned number SKn + 1 in period N + 1 = (required delivery number Hn + 1 in period N + 1) ... actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-4-period N-2 Actual production volume SZn-2 x distribution ratio T-3-actual production volume SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-2-new production planned volume SKn x distribution ratio T-1 in period N) / Allocation ratio T0 Relational expression (9)

Here, the distribution ratio..., T-4, T-3, T
For -2, T-1, and T0, use the distribution ratio of the actual production volume in a certain period. Therefore, the distribution ratio..., T-4, T-3, T
−2, T−1, and T0 can be represented by the following relational expression (10). ... + distribution ratio T-4 + distribution ratio T-3 + distribution ratio T-2 + distribution ratio T-1 + distribution ratio T0 = 1 ... relational expression (10)

Thus, from the viewpoint of the number of actual productions in a certain period, the distribution ratio T0 is a ratio of the number of actual productions in a certain period, which is delivered to a store in that period. In addition, the distribution ratio T-1 is defined as the number of production units in a certain period,
This is the rate of delivery to the dealer in the next period. Further, the distribution ratio T-2 is a ratio of the number of units produced in a certain period, which is delivered to the store in a period two times after that period. Further, the distribution ratio T-3 is a ratio that is delivered to the store in a period three times after the actual production number in a certain period. Further, the distribution ratio T-4 is a ratio of the number of units produced in a certain period, which is delivered to the store four times after the period. Hereinafter, the distribution ratios T-5, T-6,... Are similarly defined.

In view of the required number of deliveries Hn + 1 in the period N + 1, the distribution ratio T0 is the ratio of the new planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 to be delivered to the store in the period N + 1. Further, the distribution ratio T-1 is defined as a period from the new planned production number SKn of the period N immediately before the period N + 1 to the period N
+1 is the rate of delivery to the store. Further, the distribution ratio T-2 is a ratio that is delivered to the store in the period N + 1 from the actual production number SZn-1 in the period N-1 two periods before the period N + 1. Further, the distribution ratio T-3 is a ratio that is delivered to the store in the period N + 1 from the actual production number SZn-2 in the period N-2 three periods before the period N + 1. The distribution ratio T-4 is the actual production number S of the period N-3 four periods before the period N + 1.
This is the rate of delivery from Zn−3 to the store during the period N + 1. Hereinafter, the distribution ratios T-5, T-6,... Are similarly defined.

The required number of deliveries Hn + 1 in the period N + 1
As described above, S10 in the flowchart of FIG.
This is the planned production number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1 determined in step S7. Further, the new planned production number SKn in the period N has already been calculated in the past period N-1 by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment. Therefore,
Since all the values on the right side of the relational expression (9) are known values, the new planned production number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1 can be calculated.

Further, regarding the period N + 2, considering the same way, a new production planned number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2 is considered.
Becomes the relational expression (11). New production planned number SKn + 2 in period N + 2 = (required delivery number Hn + 2 in period N + 2---actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-5-period N-2 Actual production volume SZn-2 x distribution ratio T-4-actual production volume SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-3 in period N-1-New planned production volume SKn x distribution ratio T-2-period in period N N + 1 new production planned number SKn + 1 x distribution ratio T-1) / distribution ratio T0 ... Relational expression (11)

Here, the required number of deliveries Hn + 2 in the period N + 2
As described above, S10 in the flowchart of FIG.
This is the planned production number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2 determined in step S7. Further, the new planned production number SKn in the period N has already been calculated in the past period N-1 by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment. Further, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 is calculated by the above-described relational expression (9) in the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product in the present embodiment in the period N including the present time (at the time of planning). It has already been calculated. Therefore, since the values on the right side of the relational expression (11) are all known values, the new planned production number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2 can be calculated.

Further, regarding the period N + 3, considering the same, the new planned production number SKn + 3 in the period N + 3
Becomes the relational expression (12). New planned production number SKn + 3 in period N + 3 = (required delivery number Hn + 3 in period N + 3---actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-6-period N-2 Actual production volume SZn-2 x distribution ratio T-5-Actual production volume SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-4 in period N-1-New planned production volume SKn x distribution ratio T-3-period N period N + 1 new planned production number SKn + 1 × distribution ratio T−2−new production planned number SKn + 2 × distribution ratio T−1) / distribution ratio T0 Relational expression (12)

Here, the required number of deliveries Hn + 3 in the period N + 3
As described above, S10 in the flowchart of FIG.
The production planned number SKn + 3 for the period N + 3 determined in FIG. Further, the new planned production number SKn in the period N has already been calculated in the past period N-1 by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment. Further, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 is calculated by the relational expression (9) in the period N including the present time (at the time of planning).
This is already calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present embodiment. Further, the new planned production quantity SKn + 2 in the period N + 2 has already been calculated by the relational expression (11) in the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment in the period N including the present time (at the time of planning). It was done. Accordingly, since the values on the right side of the relational expression (12) are all known values, it is possible to calculate the new planned production number SKn + 3 for the period N + 3.

In the same manner, new production planned quantities up to a required period are sequentially obtained in the same manner. Accordingly, a new production plan quantity SKn + 1 for the period N + 1 and a new production plan quantity SKn + for the N + 2 are taken into consideration in a case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. 2,... Can be calculated. And
The new production plan quantity SKn + 1 for the calculated period N + 1,
N + 2 new production plan quantities SKn + 2,.
Of the production plan quantity SKn + 1 of the period N + 1, the production plan quantity SKn + 2 of the N + 2,.
The planned production quantity calculated by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-200036 described in the section of the prior art is corrected.

Next, with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 1, the process of correcting the planned production quantity in S10 of the flowchart of FIG. 2 will be described in detail. First, the processing of S101 to S107 in the flowchart of FIG. 2 is performed. Next, moving to FIG. 1, in S11, the distribution ratio.
Initial values of T-4, T-3, T-2, T-1, and T0 are input. Specifically, the input / output terminal 1 on the client side in FIG.
24, a human input, and the production condition input storage means 1 shown in FIG.
15 is stored. Allocation ratio: T-4, T-3, T-
The initial values of 2, T-1, and T0 are values determined by a human through prediction. From this, during the period when the passenger car has just been produced and the distribution ratios ..., T-4, T-3, T-2, T-1, and T0 cannot be calculated from the actual results, When the method of calculating the production plan quantity is performed, such an initial value is used.

Next, in S12, the distribution ratio is calculated from the actual production volume. Here, a method of calculating the distribution ratio from the actual production quantity will be described with reference to FIG. In the period N (at the time of planning) including the present,
-The actual production volume SZn-4 in the period N-4, the actual production volume SZn-3 in the period N-3, and the actual production volume SZn in the period N-2
-2, the actual production number SZn-1 in the period N-1 is stored in the actual information storage means 114 in FIG. It is assumed that the contents are in a state as shown in FIG. 4, for example. As shown in FIG. 4,...
The actual number of production SZn-3 in the period N-3, the actual number of production SZn-2 in the period N-2, and the actual number of production SZn-1 in the period N-1 are totaled and stored for each delivery period. And It should be noted that passenger cars for which delivery has not yet been completed are counted and stored as undelivered.

In the example of FIG. 4, among the actual production number SZn-2 in the period N-2 and the actual production number SZn-1 in the period N-1, there are those which are counted as undelivered and the period N-3.
In the actual production volume SZn-3, the delivery of all passenger cars has been completed. In such a case, the distribution ratio..., T-4, T-3, T-
2. Calculate T-1, T0.

In this example, of the 1000 actual production units SZn-3 in the period N-3, 500 passenger cars were delivered to the dealer during the period N-3, so the distribution ratio T
0 is 0.5 (= 500 / (200 + 300 + 500))
Becomes In addition, 1 of the actual production volume SZn-3 in the period N-3
Of the 000 cars, 300 cars were delivered to the store in the period N-2 immediately after the period N-3, so that the distribution ratio T-1 was 0.3 (= 300 / (200 + 300 + 50).
0)). In addition, the actual production volume SZn-
The period N after two of the period N-3 of the three thousand units
Since the number of passenger cars delivered to the store at -1 is 200, the distribution ratio T-2 is 0.2 (= 300 / (200 + 30).
0 + 500)). Hereafter, the distribution ratio ..., T-4,
T-3 is 0 (= 0 / (200 + 300 + 500)). The distribution ratio calculated from this, T-4, T-3,
T-2, T-1, and T0 are used in S15 described later.

Incidentally, in the example of FIG.
If the number of actual productions SZn-3 of all of them is counted as undelivered, the distribution ratio ..., T-4,
T-3, T-2, T-1, T0 cannot be calculated. In such a case, the initial value input in S11 described above is used. In this way, the distribution ratios, based on the number of units produced in the latest period as possible, T-4, T-3, T-
By calculating 2, T-1 and T0, consideration is given so that distribution according to the actual situation can be performed.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, in S13, the new planned production number SKn in the period N is corrected in consideration of the advance or the delay in the period N-1. As the new production planned number SKn of the period N, a value calculated by performing the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment in the past period N-1 is used. Because there is a premise that you must always protect against
It is necessary to take into account the difference (advance or delay) between the new planned production number SKn-1 and the actual production number SZn-1 in the past period N-1. Therefore, the new planned production number SKn 'for the period N after the correction can be expressed by the following relational expression (13). New production planned number SKn 'in period N after correction = new production planned number SKn + in period N + (new production planned number SKn-1 in period N-1-actual production number SZn-1 in period N-1) ... Relational expression (13) The new planned production number SKn ′ for the period N calculated here is treated as the new planned production number SKn for the period N in S15 described later.

Next, in S14 to S19, the planned production number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1, the planned production number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2, and the planned production number SKn + for the period N + 3 determined in S107 of the flowchart of FIG. 3. Make corrections. Here, from the period N + 1 to the necessary period N + P,
The production plan number is corrected by obtaining a new production plan number sequentially from the previous period (S15). More specifically, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 is expressed by the following relational expression (14) by adding the relational expression (13) to the relational expression (9). New production planned number SKn + 1 in period N + 1 = (required delivery number Hn + 1 in period N + 1) ... actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-4-period N-2 Actual production number SZn-2 x distribution ratio T-3-Actual production number SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-2 in period N-1-New production planned number SKn 'x distribution ratio T1 in period N after correction ) / Distribution ratio T0 relational expression (14) From this relational expression (14), a new planned production number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1 is obtained.

Further, a new planned production number S for the period N + 2
Kn + 2 is expressed by the following relational expression (15) by adding the relational expression (13) to the relational expression (11). New production planned number SKn + 2 in period N + 2 = (required delivery number Hn + 2 in period N + 2---actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-5-period N-2 Actual production number SZn−2 × Distribution ratio T−4−Production actual number SZn−1 × Distribution ratio T−3−New production planned number SKn ′ × Distribution ratio T for period N after correction -2- New planned production volume SKn + 1 x distribution ratio T-1) / distribution ratio T0 in period N + 1 Relational expression (15) From this relational expression (15), new production planned number in period N + 2 SKn + 2 is obtained.

Further, the new production planned number S for the period N + 3
Kn + 3 is expressed by the following relational expression (16) by adding the relational expression (13) to the relational expression (12). New planned production number SKn + 3 in period N + 3 = (required delivery number Hn + 3 in period N + 3---actual production number SZn-3 in period N-3 x distribution ratio T-6-period N-2 Actual production volume SZn-2 x distribution ratio T-5-actual production volume SZn-1 x distribution ratio T-4 in period N-1-new production planned number SKn 'x distribution ratio T in period N after correction −3−New planned production number SKn + 1 × period ratio T of period N + 1−New production planned number SKn + 2 × distribution ratio T−1 of period N + 2) / distribution ratio T0. (16) From this relational expression (16), a new production planned number SKn + 3 for the period N + 3 is obtained.

In the same manner, new planned production numbers up to the required period N + P are sequentially obtained in the same manner. Note that the relational expressions (14), (15), and (16) are represented by the relational expression (9).
(11) New production planned number SKn for period N in (12)
Is replaced with the new planned production number SKn 'for the period N after the correction.

When the new planned production quantity is less than "0" (S16: No), the production plan cannot have a negative value. 0 "(S18).

Next, in S20, the display and input of a new planned production number are performed. Specifically, a new planned production number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1, a new planned production number SKn + 2 for the period N + 2, and a new production planned number SKn + for the period N + 3
Are displayed by the result output unit 116 in FIG. 6 and stored in the plan information storage unit 112 in FIG. As a result, new production plan quantities SKn + 1, N
The new production planned quantity SKn + 2,... Of the +2 is substituted for the production planned quantity SKn + 1, N + 2 of the production plan quantity SKn + 1, N + 2 of the period N + 1 in FIG. Will be corrected with respect to the planned production quantity calculated by the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product described in Japanese Patent Application No. Hei 8-200036 described in the section of (1). After that,
Returning to FIG. 2, the process is carried over to S109.

As described above in detail, in the method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present embodiment, first, at the time of the period N including the present time (at the time of planning), Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000.
Using the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product described in No. 36, the planned production quantity SKn + 1 for the period N + 1, the production planned quantity SKn + 2,... For the N + 2 are calculated (S10 in FIG. 2).
7).

At this time, the method for calculating the planned production quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036 is based on the precondition that a passenger car can be sold as soon as it is produced. It is believed that all of the completed passenger cars will be delivered during this period. However, in the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may go through a plurality of periods, the passenger car produced in each period before the period may be delivered in the period. All or some of the passenger cars produced during the period may be delivered in each period after the period.

Therefore, in the method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present embodiment, the period N +
The planned production number SKn + m of M is regarded as the required number of delivery Hn + m required by the dealer in the period N + M, and the required number of delivery Hn + m of the period N + M is. The number of deliveries from the actual production number SZn-2, the number of deliveries from the actual production number SZn-1 of N-1, the number of deliveries from the new production plan number SKn in the period N, and the new production plan number in the period N + 1 Delivery number from SKn + 1, ..., N + M
It is considered to be established by the addition formula with the number of deliveries from the new planned production number SKn + m. Note that the above-described relational expression (8)
Is the case where M = 1.

Thus, the new planned production number S for the period N
Kn, the new planned production volume SKn + 1 for the period N + 1, ...
-The new planned production number SKn + m for the period N + M is the production planned number in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. Therefore, by calculating the new production planned number SKn + m for the period N + M by back calculation from this addition formula, consideration is given to the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. It is possible to modify the planned production number (calculation of a new production planned number).

It is to be noted that the new planned production number SKn for the period N
Is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time of the past period N-1. In addition, a new production planned number SKn +
1,..., The new planned production quantity SKn for the period N + M-1
+ m-1 is the value calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time of the period N including the present (at the time of planning) (i = 1 to N + M in S15 of FIG. 1). -1).

For example, the planned delivery number Hn + 1 in the period N + 1
Speaking of ..., the actual production number S of the period N-2
The number of deliveries from Zn-2 and the actual number of productions S in period N-1
This is established by the addition formula of the number of deliveries from Zn−1, the number of deliveries from the new planned production number SKn in the period N, and the number of deliveries from the new planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1. Here, the planned delivery number Hn + 1 in the period N + 1 is regarded as the planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1.
From this addition formula, the new planned production number SK for the period N + 1
n + 1 can be obtained by back calculation (see relational expression (9)). Thereby, a new production planned number SKn + 1 in the case of M = 1 in the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated (S15 in FIG. 1).
Where i = 1.)

It is to be noted that the new planned production number SKn for the period N
Is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time point N-1 in the past.

Also, regarding the planned number of delivery Hn + 2 in the period N + 2,..., The actual production number SZ in the period N-2
n-2 and the actual number of production SZn in period N-1
-1 and the number of new production plans SK in period N
n, the number of deliveries from the new planned production number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1, and the number of deliveries from the new planned production number SKn + 2 in the period N + 2. Here, since the planned delivery number Hn + 2 in the period N + 2 is regarded as the planned production number SKn + 2 in the period N + 2, the new planned production number SKn + 2 in the period N + 2 is calculated from this addition formula. Is possible (relational expression (1
1)). As a result, a new planned production number SKn + 2 in the case of M = 2 in the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated (calculated by i = 2 in S15 of FIG. 1).

The new planned production number SKn for the period N
Is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time of the past period N-1. In addition, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1
At the time of period N including the present (at the time of planning)
The product calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment (calculated with i = 1 in S15 of FIG. 1) is used.

Further, as for the planned delivery number Hn + 3 in the period N + 3,..., The actual production number SZ in the period N-2
n-2 and the actual number of production SZn in period N-1
-1 and the number of new production plans SK in period N
n, the number of new production plans SKn + 1 in the period N + 1, the number of new production plans SKn + 2 in the period N + 2, and the new production plan SKn of the period N + 3. It will be established by the addition formula with the number of deliveries from +3. Here, the planned delivery number H of the period N + 3
Since n + 3 is regarded as the production planned number SKn + 3 of the period N + 3, the new production planned number SKn + 3 of the period N + 3 can be obtained by back calculation from this addition formula (the relational expression (1)
2)). As a result, a new planned production number SKn + 3 is calculated for M = 3 in the period (N + i: i = M) (calculated by i = 3 in S15 of FIG. 1).

The new planned production number SKn for the period N
Is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time of the past period N-1. In addition, the new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1
At the time of period N including the present (at the time of planning)
The product calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment (calculated with i = 1 in S15 of FIG. 1) is used. In addition, the new production planned number SK for the period N + 2
n + 2 is calculated by the method of calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time of the period N including the present time (at the time of planning) (calculated at i = 2 in S15 of FIG. 1). Stuff).

Hereinafter, similarly, a new production planned number until the necessary period N + P is sequentially obtained (S15 in FIG. 1).
, And repeatedly calculated until i = N + P). Thereby, a new production planned number SKn + 1 in the period N + 1 and a new production planned number SKn + in the period N + 2 are considered in consideration of a case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. 2,... Can be calculated. Then, a new production planned number SKn + for the period N + 1
1, N + 2 new planned production units SKn + 2,... Are replaced with production planned units SKn + 1, N + 2 planned production units SKn + 2,.
1 is corrected for each production plan quantity (S2 in FIG. 1).
0).

As described above, according to the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment, the planned production quantity SKn +
m is regarded as the required number of deliveries Hn + m in the period N + M,
The required number of deliveries Hn + m in the period N + M are:..., The number of deliveries from the actual number of production SZn-2 of N-2, the number of deliveries from the actual number of produce SZn-1 in N−1, and , The number of deliveries from the planned number of productions SKn, the number of deliveries from the new number of planned productions SKn + 1 in the period N + 1,..., N + M
And the number of deliveries from the new production planned number SKn + m is established (see relational expression (8)), and the new production planned number SKn + m for the period N + M is calculated backward from this addition formula. (See relational expressions (9), (11), and (12)), each production after the period N + 1 is considered in consideration of the case where the delivery from the completion of the production of the passenger car to the store may take a plurality of periods. Correction of the planned number (new production planned number SKn + 1 for period N + 1, new production planned number SKn + for period N + 2)
2,... (S15, S20 in FIG. 1).

Also,..., N-2 production actual number SZ
The number of deliveries from n-2, the number of actual deliveries from N-1 SZn-1, the number of deliveries from the new production plan number SKn in period N, and the number of new production plans SKn + in period N + 1
The number of deliveries from 1,..., The number of new production plans of N + M SKn + m is the number of deliveries from the latest period N-3 in which all of the actual production numbers were delivered. 4, T
-3, T-2, T-1, and T0 (S12 in FIG. 1), the distribution ratio..., T-4, T-3, T
-2, T-1, T0 will be the closest to the current situation,
A new production planned number SKn + 1 and a period N for the period N + 1 calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment.
+2, the new planned production number SKn + 2,...

Further, the new planned production number SKn for the period N
Is calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment at the time point N-1 in the past, and therefore, at the time point N (including at the time of planning) including the present time, A correction is made for the delay or advance of the production plan (S13 in FIG. 1), and the new planned production number SKn of the period N is closest to the current state (the new planned production number SKn 'of the corrected period N). ), The relational expression (1
4) (15) and (16)), a new production planned number SKn + 1 for the period N + 1 and a new production planned number SKn + for the period N + 2 calculated by the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment. 2. The reliability of... Can be improved.

Further, a new production planned number S for the period N + M
When Kn + m is calculated backward (S15 in FIG. 1), if the new planned production quantity SKn + m in the period N + M is less than “0” (S16: No in FIG. 1), the period after the period N + M Means that production during the period is unnecessary, the new planned production number SKn + m for the period N + M, the new production planned number SKn + m + 1 for the period N + M + 1 are set to “0” (FIG. 1 S18), new planned production number SKn + m for period N + M, new production planned number SKn + m for period N + M + 1
+1... Are in line with the reality, so that the new production planned number SKn + 1 of the period N + 1 and the new period N + 2 calculated by the method of calculating the production planned quantity of the product according to the present embodiment. .. Can be increased in reliability.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and various changes can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention. For example, in the method of calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present embodiment, a passenger car is treated as a product.
Any product can be handled as long as the length of time required from order receipt to sale varies greatly, and delivery from the completion of production to the store may take several periods. .

The method for calculating the planned production quantity of a product according to the present embodiment corrects the planned production quantity calculated by the method for calculating the planned production quantity of a product described in Japanese Patent Application No. 8-2000036. However, Japanese Patent Application No. 9-28502
The production planned number calculated by the method for calculating the production planned quantity of the product described in No. 7 may be corrected.
The revised planned production volume is based on Japanese Patent Application No. 9-28502.
It can be used for the method of calculating the sales plan quantity of the product described in No. 7.

[0095]

According to the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention, the production plan quantity for the period N + M is regarded as the required delivery quantity for the period N + M, and the required delivery quantity for the period N + M is calculated for each of the periods. , N-1, each delivery quantity from the actual production quantity, the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the planned period N, and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the period N + 1,. It is assumed that the formula is established by the addition formula with each delivery quantity, and the new production plan quantity in the period N + M is calculated back from the addition formula, so that the delivery from the completion of the production of the product to the store passes through a plurality of periods. In some cases, it is possible to correct each production plan quantity after the period N + 1 (calculation and replacement of new production plan quantities in each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,...).

.., N-2, N−1, the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity in the planned period N, N +
2,..., The delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity of N + M, and the distribution ratio of the latest term in which all of the actual production quantities among the term. , Since the distribution ratio is closest to the current state, the new period of each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention is used. The reliability of the production planning quantity can be improved.

The new production planned quantity of the planned period N is calculated by the method of the present invention for calculating the production plan quantity of the product at the past period N-1. If the current production plan is corrected for the delay or the advance of the current production plan at the time point N, the new production plan quantity in the planned period N becomes the closest to the current situation. The reliability of the new production plan quantity for each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Calculated by the production plan quantity calculation method can be improved.

Further, when the new production plan quantity of the period N + M is obtained by back calculation, if the new production plan quantity of the period N + M is less than “0”, the production in the period after the period N + M is unnecessary. Therefore, by setting the new production plan quantity after the period N + M to “0”, the period N +
Since each new production plan quantity after M is in line with reality, the new production plan quantity for each of the periods N + 1, N + 2,... Calculated by the method for calculating the production plan quantity of the product of the present invention. Reliability can be improved.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a method of correcting a planned production quantity (calculating and replacing a new production planned quantity) in a method of calculating a production planned quantity of a product according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the relationship between the actual production quantity, a new production planned quantity, and the required delivery quantity (the production planned quantity regarded as).

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining a method of calculating a delivery ratio.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating a conventional method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a system for executing a conventional method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product.

FIG. 7 is a block diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of a system for executing a method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to the related art.

[Figure 8] Relationship between period, actual production volume, actual order volume, actual sales volume, actual inventory volume, actual backlog volume, planned production volume, predicted order volume, planned sales volume, planned inventory volume, and planned backlog volume FIG.

[Explanation of symbols]

 SZ actual production number JZ actual order number HZ sales actual number ZZ inventory actual number CZ backlog actual number SK production planned number, new production planned number H Delivery required number (production planned number regarded as deemed) JY forecasted order number HK sales Planned number ZK Inventory planned number CK Backlog planned number T Allocation ratio

Claims (5)

[Claims] [Claim 1] The actual production quantity, the actual order quantity, the actual sales quantity, the actual inventory quantity, the actual back-order quantity, and the actual quantity (N + i: i) totaled for each period (N + i: i ≦ -1) ≧ 0), the estimated order quantity, the backlog rate corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), and the period
(N + i: i ≧ 1) and the planned period (N + i: i =
0), the planned back-ordered quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), the sales planned quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), and the
i: i ≧ 0) and the inventory plan quantity, and then each period (N + i: i
≧ 1) to calculate each production period (N +
In the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product in which the production plan quantity for i: i ≧ 1) is calculated at the time of the period (N + i: i = 0), the production plan for the period (N + i: i = M) The quantity is regarded as the required quantity for the period (N + i: i = M), and the required quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) is the production result for each period (N + i: i ≦ -1). Delivery quantity from quantity and new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: 1 ≦ i ≦ M) from new production plan quantity for planned period (N + i: i = 0) From the addition formula with each delivery amount, and by calculating the new production plan quantity of the period (N + i: i = M) from the addition formula in reverse, each period (N + i: A method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product, wherein a new production plan quantity of i ≧ 1) is calculated. [Claim 2] The actual production quantity, the actual order quantity, the actual sales quantity, the actual inventory quantity, the actual back-order quantity, the actual actual order quantity, and the total quantity of the production period (N + i: i ≦ -1) + i: i ≧ 0), the estimated order quantity, the backlog rate corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), and the planned period (N + i: i = 0) Production plan quantity, unallocated allocation ratio corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0), unallocated inventory next period sales ratio corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 0) , Has a production allocatable ratio corresponding to each period (N + i: i ≧ 1), and the backlog planned quantity and each period (N + i: i
≧ 0) and the inventory plan quantity for the period (N + i: i = 0), then the production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1) and each period (N + i : i ≧ 1) by alternately calculating the planned inventory quantity of each period (N + i: i ≧ 1).
i: i = 0), and each calculated period (N + i: i
≧ 1) in the calculation method of the production plan quantity of the product handled as the order plan quantity of each period (N + i: i ≧ 1), the production plan quantity of the period (N + i: i = M) It is regarded as the required quantity for the period (N + i: i = M), and the required quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) is calculated from the actual production quantity for each period (N + i: i ≦ -1). Of each delivery quantity and the new production plan quantity of each period (N + i: 1 ≦ i ≦ M) from the new production plan quantity of the planned period (N + i: i = 0) Each of the periods (N + i: i ≧≧ 1) is obtained by calculating the new production plan quantity for the period (N + i: i = M) from the above-mentioned addition formula. A method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product, wherein a new production plan quantity is calculated in 1). 3. The method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to claim 1 or 2, wherein each delivery quantity from a production actual quantity in each period (N + i: i ≦ -1) The delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity for the period (N + i: i = 0) and the delivery quantity from the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: 1 ≦ i ≦ M) are calculated for each period ( (N + i: i ≦ -1), a method of calculating a production plan quantity of a product, wherein all production quantities are determined using the distribution ratio of the latest period in which the product was delivered. 4. The method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: calculating a new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ 1). Before performing this process, a new production plan quantity for a planned period (N + i: i = 0) is corrected taking into account the delay or advance of the current production plan. Calculation method of production plan quantity. 5. The method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein a new production plan quantity for a period (N + i: i = M) is “0”. A method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product, wherein the new production plan quantity for each period (N + i: i ≧ M) is set to “0” when the production plan quantity is less than “0”.