JP2006285400A - Device, method, and program for preparing demand-supply plan - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable preparing a rational demand-supply plan table, without calculating the negative production in a preparation process of the demand-supply plan table. <P>SOLUTION: A device for preparing a demand-supply plan acquires actual result data related to the number of production, the number of arrival, the number of stocks, the number of selling, and the distribution lead time from production origins to selling stores of products for each month, those before the month of N, and planned data relating to the number of product selling and the number of stocks for each month after the month of N, and calculates the number of planed stocks that is the number of the stocks for each month, after the month of N on the basis of the planed number. Next, the device calculates the number of planned arrival that is the number of the arrival for each month, after the month of N, on the basis of the planned number of the stocks, the result data, the numbers of the stocks and selling in the month of N; and calculates the breakdown by production month in the planned number of the arrival, on the basis of planed number of the arrival and data related to the distribution lead time of the actual result data. The device then calculates the number of production of the products in the month of N from the breakdown of the number. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention is a supply and demand plan creation device that calculates an appropriate number of products produced by a manufacturer and creates a reasonable supply and demand plan while taking into account the number of products sold by the sales plan and the number of products stocked by the inventory plan, The present invention relates to a supply and demand plan creation method and a supply and demand plan creation program.

  In general, in a store that sells products to consumers (customers), the number of units sold is determined by predicting the number of orders from future customers, and the number of units in stock is determined by predicting the future inventory status of products. Furthermore, in order to realize these sales and inventory numbers, the production quantity of products ordered from the manufacturer (for example, production factory) is calculated, and a supply and demand plan is created. In other words, a dealer or the like determines the most reasonable sales volume, inventory volume, and production volume in consideration of changes in the number of orders for products and inventory status that may occur in the future, and prepares a supply and demand plan.

  Here, when preparing the above supply and demand plan, it is difficult to predict the number of orders and inventory of products that may occur in the future, and while making various predictions, seek the most reasonable sales, inventory and production The work to be determined is a difficult task for the planner of the supply and demand plan.

  Thus, as a technique for reducing the burden on the planner and supporting the creation of a supply and demand plan, there is an apparatus described in Patent Document 1, for example. This device stores past performance data such as product specifications, order time, production time, arrival time, and sales time for each product ordered in the past, and based on this past performance data, the planned unit period For each month (for example, every month), a supply and demand table with cells showing seven types of production, arrivals, orders, sales, total inventory, local inventory and remaining orders in each period. To create. Specifically, this apparatus first performs a process of collecting the number that can be collected from the database and applying it to the corresponding cell in the supply-demand table. In addition, when the planner selects a cell in the supply / demand table and enters the number to be considered, the planner calculates the number of cells that can be calculated from the collected number and the input number, and applies it to the corresponding cell in the supply / demand table. Do. In this way, a process for assigning the number of cells to each cell is performed, and a supply-demand table is created.

  Since the planner can recognize the event that will occur in the future when it is determined by the number of units input by itself from the supply and demand unit table created by this apparatus, it is possible to create a supply and demand plan for the product while recognizing the event that will occur in the future. In addition, if this unit changes the number of units that the planner wants to consider and re-enters it, or if the number of units is changed by reselecting a cell in the supply and demand table, the above calculation processing is performed according to the number of units after the change, Recreate the number table. With this device, the supply and demand table can be easily recreated by changing the number of units, so the planner can easily find and determine the most reasonable sales, inventory, production, etc. Become. That is, this device makes it easier for the planner to create the most reasonable supply and demand plan.

  The process for creating a supply and demand plan table using the above-described conventional technology is performed, for example, in the following procedure. Hereinafter, as an example, a processing procedure in the case of creating a supply and demand plan table configured as shown in FIGS. 10 to 12 will be described. FIG. 10 to FIG. 12 show an example of a supply and demand plan table obtained by performing a process for creating a supply and demand plan after month N in (N-1) month. Various data for each month up to (N + 5) months after 5 months is shown. In the supply and demand plan tables of FIGS. 10 to 12, “production number” is the number of products produced (or scheduled to be produced) at the production plant, and “local arrival number” is supplied from the production plant to the local site (sales, etc.). , The number of products that arrived (or will arrive) locally, “local inventory” is the local product inventory, and “local inventory level” is the number of units sold in the following month The “unit sold” indicates the number of products sold (or planned to be sold).

  In the supply and demand plan table of FIG. 10, the numbers in the (N-3) month and the (N-2) month are the past actual data at the time of the (N-1) month when the supply and demand plan table for the month after N is created. For this reason, it is already entered in the corresponding cell when the supply and demand plan table is created. In addition, since the number of units produced in the (N-1) month has already been determined at the (N-2) month, it has already been entered in the corresponding cell as past performance data. In addition, the distribution lead time from the production factory to the site is known in advance, and is input into the corresponding cell as “local arrival ratio” as past performance data. In this local arrival ratio, P0 is the percentage of all products produced in the current month that arrive at the site during the current month, and P1 is the percentage of all products produced in the previous month that arrive at the current month in the current month. , P2 is the ratio of products that arrived in the current month out of all products produced in the month before last month, and P3 represents products that arrived in the current month this month out of all products that were produced three months ago , Respectively. The figure shows that 60% of the previous month's production volume and 40% of the previous month's production volume arrive at the site in the current month. That is, the distribution lead time is 1 to 2 months. In the figure, the local arrival ratio can be set to four ratios from P0 to P3. However, depending on the distribution lead time of the product, the ratio of more types, that is, all products produced more than 4 months ago The percentage of products arriving at the site in the current month can be set.

  As described above, the past actual data on the actual value of the number of units and the distribution lead time has been collected and entered, and the planner first determines the future number of units sold at the dealer, Enter in. In FIG. 11, the monthly sales volume is set to 1000 according to the sales plan. Here, if the production volume in N month is Prod (N), and the local arrival volume in N month is Arr (N), then Arr (N) = P0 × Prod (N) + P1 × Prod (N-1) + P2 × Prod The relational expression 1 is established as (N-2) + P3 × Prod (N-3). Therefore, the number of local arrivals in (N-1) months and N months is calculated from this relational expression 1. Also, LS (N) = LS (N-1) + Arr (N)-Sales (N) where LS (N) is the local inventory in N and Sales (N) is the sales in N. Equation 2 is established. Therefore, the local inventory quantity in (N-1) months and N months is calculated from this relational expression 2. Further, the local inventory level relative to the sales volume in (N-1) months and N months was calculated from the sales volume in (N-1) months and N months determined by the planner and the above relational expression (N-1 ) Calculated from the local inventory in the month and month N. The local arrival quantity, local inventory quantity and local inventory level in (N-1) month and N month thus calculated are applied to the corresponding cells in the supply and demand plan table as shown in FIG.

  The planner then determines the desired inventory level in the future and enters it in the cell. For example, suppose a planner plans to reduce the local inventory level 4.4 in N month to 1.5 after 3 months. In this case, the local inventory level after (N + 3) months is 1.5. Further, the local inventory levels in the (N + 1) month and the (N + 2) month are determined on the assumption that the reduction rate of the local inventory level is constant. That is, as shown in FIG. 12, the local inventory level of (N + 1) month is calculated as 3.4, and the local inventory level of (N + 2) month is calculated as 2.5 and is input into the corresponding cell. Based on the calculated local inventory level after (N + 1) month and the already determined monthly sales quantity, the local inventory quantity after (N + 1) month is calculated. Further, when the local inventory quantity after the (N + 1) month is calculated, the local arrival quantity after the (N + 1) month is calculated using the relational expression 2. Thus, when the number of local arrivals after (N + 1) month is calculated, the production number after N month is calculated using the above relational expression 1. The local inventory quantity and local arrival quantity after (N + 1) month calculated in this way and the production quantity after N month are applied to the corresponding cells in the supply and demand plan table of FIG.

  The supply and demand plan is created by the planner by the above procedure. In addition to the following Patent Document 1, for example, there is a technique disclosed in the following Patent Document 2 as a technology that supports creation of a supply and demand plan.

JP 2002-175402 A JP 2003-29816 A

  By the way, when the process for creating the supply and demand plan table is performed according to the above procedure, the number of produced units may be calculated as a negative value with respect to the inventory level desired by the planner. Further, once the negative production number is calculated, in the future production number, a positive value and a negative value are alternately calculated, and a positive / negative amplitude may occur in the transition of the production number. For example, in Fig. 12, when the inventory level 4.4 in N month is planned to be 1.5 in the (N + 3) month three months later, a negative value of -667 units is calculated as the production number in N month. Has been. In addition, after N month when the production volume becomes negative, the production volume in the next month (N + 1) month is positive value of 611 units, the production volume in the next month (N + 2) month is negative value of -407 units, ( N + 3) Monthly production volume has been positive, such as 1938 units. In other words, positive and negative amplitudes occur in the transition of the production number.

  In such a case, the planner analyzes the cause of the negative production volume, selects a cell in the supply and demand plan table related to the factor grasped by the analysis, and changes the number of the cell. It is necessary to correct the supply and demand plan table so that negative production does not occur, and recreate a reasonable supply and demand plan table.

  However, the factors for calculating the negative production volume are, for example, the inventory level, gradation period (the period required for the inventory level to converge to the desired level, which is 3 months in FIG. 12), sales availability (with respect to demand) For example, the ratio of the number of units sold to the number of orders received or local inventory), the number of units sold, the number of units sold in the previous month, the difference between the actual value and the planned value in the number of local arrivals, the previous month When there are multiple production units, such as the number of previous productions, and negative production units may be calculated due to one of these factors, or when negative production units are calculated with multiple factors involved There is also. Therefore, it is difficult for the planners to analyze the factors that caused the negative production volume, and it was difficult to take measures against where the corrections should be made from the supply and demand plan table.

  In addition, even if the negative production number calculated at first (corresponding to the production volume in N month in Fig. 12) is corrected to zero, the amplitude in the transition of production volume in the following month is only temporarily reduced. Therefore, it is not always possible to correct the future negative production volume (corresponding to the (N + 2) month production volume in FIG. 12) caused by the calculation of the negative production volume to a positive value. In this way, simply correcting negative production to zero did not provide a fundamental solution.

  Therefore, when the negative production volume is calculated as described above, the planner repeats the process of calculating the production volume by changing the value of the volume related to the possible factors, and the rational supply and demand plan Inefficient work of creating tables. In addition, such work has been a burden for the planner.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a supply and demand plan creation device, a supply and demand plan creation method, and a supply and demand plan creation program capable of creating a rational supply and demand plan table while correcting and controlling so that the number of production does not become a negative value. is there.

  The present invention is a supply and demand plan creation device that creates a supply and demand plan in which the number of products produced at a manufacturer for each unit period, the number of arrivals at a dealer, the number of inventory at a dealer, and the number of products sold are set. Production data, arrivals, inventory, sales, and actual data on the distribution lead time from the product manufacturer to the dealer, and for each unit period after the target unit period. Data acquisition means for acquiring plan data relating to the number of units sold and in stock, and number calculation means for calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period based on the actual data and plan data acquired by the data acquisition means And the number-of-units calculation means is a planned inventory unit that is the number of units in stock for each unit period after the target unit period based on the plan data. Based on the planned inventory quantity, the actual data, and the data relating to the inventory quantity and the sales quantity in the target unit period, the planned arrival quantity that is the arrival quantity for each unit period after the target unit period is calculated. Based on the processing, the planned arrival number, and data related to the distribution lead time of the actual data, a process for calculating the unit breakdown for each unit period in which the product in the planned arrival number is produced, and the target from the unit breakdown And a process of calculating the number of products produced in a unit period.

  Here, in the supply and demand plan creation device configured as described above, the number calculation means further calculates a number of arrivals in the next unit period after the target unit period based on the calculated number of products produced in the target unit period. Based on the calculated arrival number in the next unit period, the planned arrival number after the next unit period, and data on the distribution lead time of the actual data, the product in the planned arrival number after the next unit period It is preferable to perform a process of updating the breakdown of the number of produced units by unit period and a process of calculating the number of products produced in the next unit period from the updated number of units.

  The present invention is typically realized by causing a computer system to execute a program describing the functions and processing operations of the above-described means.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to create a reasonable supply and demand plan table while performing correction control so that the calculated production number does not become a negative value. Thereby, it is possible to reduce the work burden on the planner caused by calculating the negative production quantity.

  In the present invention, the above-mentioned factors for calculating the negative production number are the factors that depend on the planner's decision (inventory level, gradation period, sales availability, unit sales), and factors based on past performance (inventories in the previous month) , The difference between the actual value and the planned value of the number of local arrivals, the number of production before the previous month), and by setting the value regarding the former factor while taking into account the planner's wishes as much as possible, negative production Correction control is performed so as not to calculate the number. Below, the structure of the supply-and-demand plan preparation system in embodiment of this invention is demonstrated with reference to FIG. In the following description, the unit indicating the number of products is expressed as “unit”. This is not necessarily limited to products that normally count as one or two, and the present invention can also be applied to products that count as one or two.

  In FIG. 1, the supply and demand plan creation system includes a supply and demand plan creation device 10 and a client device 20, which are connected via a network 30 such as the Internet so that data communication is possible. The supply and demand plan creation device 10 is installed at a store, for example, and the client device 20 is installed at a manufacturer such as a production factory.

  The client device 20 transmits data relating to the number of products (production number) produced by the manufacturer at a predetermined period (for example, every month) to the supply and demand plan creation device 10 and the supply and demand from the supply and demand plan creation device 10 Processing to receive ordering data (production unit data) according to the plan is performed.

  The supply and demand plan creation device 10 includes a calculation unit 11, a communication control unit 12, an input unit 13, an output unit 14, and a storage device 15, which are connected to each other via an internal bus. The communication control unit 12 is connected to the client device 20 via the network 30 so that data communication is possible. The input unit 13 is for a planner to input a desired command to the supply and demand plan creation device 10 such as a keyboard. The output unit 14 is for outputting a supply and demand plan table created as described later to the outside of the supply and demand plan creation device 10 (for example, a display device or a printing device). The storage device 15 includes the number of products produced at the manufacturer (production unit), data on the distribution lead time from the manufacturer to the dealer (past performance data), and supply and demand plan table data created as described below. , Remember. In the present embodiment, the past performance data and the supply and demand plan table data are stored in the same storage device 15, but the present invention is not limited to this, and may be stored separately.

  The calculation unit 11 includes a data registration unit 11a, a supply / demand plan item data search unit 11b, and a supply / demand plan table creation unit 11c. The data registration unit 11a performs a process of storing the past performance data acquired from the client device 20 of the manufacturer and the supply and demand plan table data created as described later in the storage device 15. The supply and demand plan item data search unit 11 b performs a process of searching for data necessary for creating a new supply and demand plan table from data stored in the storage device 15. The supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c performs processing for creating a supply and demand plan table using the data retrieved by the supply and demand plan item data retrieval unit 11b, the data input by the planner from the input unit 13, and the like.

  Next, processing operations performed in the supply and demand plan creation apparatus 10 having the above configuration will be described with reference to FIGS. In the present embodiment, a monthly supply and demand plan is created as a unit period, and the unit period for which the number of units and the like is calculated is assumed to be each month after N month, and supply and demand after N month in (N-1) month. A case where a supply and demand plan table indicating a plan is created will be described.

  First, the configuration of the supply and demand plan table in the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 3 to FIG. 9 show an example of a supply and demand plan table obtained by executing the preparation process of the supply and demand plan after the N month in the (N-1) month. Various data for each month up to (N + 5) months after 5 months is shown.

  Here, in the supply and demand plan tables of FIG. 3 to FIG. 9, “Necessary inventory level” is a value indicating how many months the number of units sold in the following month is in stock. The desired inventory level is entered. The “necessary inventory quantity” is the necessary inventory level converted into the quantity. “Necessary arrival number 1” indicates the number of local arrivals necessary to realize the calculated necessary inventory number. “Necessary arrivals 2” is the same value as “Necessary arrivals 1” as an initial value, and the production quantity calculated in the process of creating a supply and demand plan table while making correction control so that the production quantity does not become negative In addition, it is the arrival number obtained by correcting the “necessary arrival number 1” as described later in consideration of the local arrival number and the set required inventory level. The “arrival number difference” indicates a difference obtained by subtracting “local arrival number” from “necessary arrival number 2”. “Breakdown of required arrivals” is the number of products produced in the current month, the number of products produced in the previous month, the number of products produced in the previous month, and the number of products produced in the month before last. This shows the breakdown of the number of finished products, and is calculated based on the local arrival rate.

  “Local inventory level”, “Local inventory volume”, “Local arrival volume”, “Production volume”, “Sales volume”, and “Local arrival ratio” are the same as before, and “Local arrival ratio” It is assumed that 60% of the previous month's production volume and 40% of the previous month's production volume will arrive at the site this month. In the figure, the local arrival ratio can be set to four ratios from P0 to P3. However, depending on the distribution lead time of the product, the ratio of more types, that is, all products produced more than 4 months ago The percentage of products arriving at the site in the current month can be set.

  Next, a process for creating a supply and demand plan table having the above configuration by the supply and demand plan creation apparatus 10 will be described.

  When the planner inputs a supply / demand plan table creation command from the input unit 13 to the supply / demand plan creation device 10, the supply / demand plan item data search unit 11 b reads the supply / demand plan from past performance data and supply / demand plan table data in the storage device 15. The data required for table creation is searched, and then the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c inputs the retrieved data into the corresponding cell (step S10). Specifically, each unit number and local inventory level in (N-3) month and (N-2) month, which are past performance data as of (N-1) month when the supply and demand plan table was created, (N-1 ) Items of monthly production volume and local arrival ratio indicating the distribution lead time are entered in the corresponding cell of the supply and demand plan table. Of the items in (N-3) and (N-2) months, the required inventory level is the same as the local inventory level, the required inventory is the same as the local inventory, and the required arrivals 1 and 2 are local arrivals. The difference between the number of arrivals and the number of arrivals is set to zero and is input to the corresponding cell.

  Next, when the planner determines the future sales volume and inputs the determined sales volume from the input unit 13, the supply-demand plan table creation unit 11c inputs the determined sales volume in the corresponding cell of the supply-demand plan table (step S11). ). Here, a case is shown in which the monthly sales number is determined to be 1000 according to the sales plan.

  When the monthly sales volume is thus input, the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c inputs the supply and demand plan items other than the (N-1) month and N month production and sales volumes in the supply and demand plan table. The calculated value is calculated, and the calculated value is input into the corresponding cell (step S12). Specifically, using Arr (N) = P0 × Prod (N) + P1 × Prod (N-1) + P2 × Prod (N-2) + P3 × Prod (N-3) , (N-1) The number of local arrivals in month and month N is calculated. Further, using the conventional relational expression 2 LS (N) = LS (N-1) + Arr (N) -Sales (N), the local inventory quantity in (N-1) months and N months is calculated. Further, the local inventory level in (N-1) months and N months is calculated using the number of units sold and the calculated local inventory number. For example, since the local inventory number of 4320 units in the (N-1) month is equivalent to the sales volume of 4.3 months after the N month of the following month, the local inventory level in the (N-1) month is 4.3. The value calculated as described above is input into the corresponding cell of the supply and demand plan table. Of the items in (N-1) months and N months, the required inventory level is the same as the local inventory level, the required inventory quantity is the same as the local inventory quantity, and the required arrival quantities 1 and 2 are the same as the local arrival quantity. The difference between the number of arrivals and the number of arrivals is set to zero and is input to the corresponding cell.

  Subsequently, when the planner determines a desired stock level in the future and inputs the determined stock level from the input unit 13, the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c calculates the stock level for each month, and within the corresponding cell of the necessary stock level. (Step S13). For example, suppose a planner plans to reduce the local inventory level 4.4 in N month to 1.5 after 3 months. In this case, as shown in FIG. 3, the necessary inventory level after (N + 3) month is input as 1.5. Further, the local inventory levels in the (N + 1) month and the (N + 2) month are determined on the assumption that the reduction rate of the local inventory level is constant. That is, as shown in FIG. 4, the local inventory level of (N + 1) month is calculated as 3.4, and the local inventory level of (N + 2) month is calculated as 2.5, and input into the corresponding cell.

  When the input to the required inventory level is completed in this way, the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c calculates the required arrivals 1 and 2, the required inventory, and the breakdown of the required arrivals after (N + 1) month, and inputs them into the corresponding cell. (Step S14). Specifically, the necessary inventory quantity for each month after (N + 1) month is calculated from the necessary inventory level after (N + 1) month and the number of units sold. This required inventory quantity is the inventory quantity when it is assumed that the required inventory level changes according to the calculated required inventory level. Also, as with the conventional relational expression 2, the required arrival number 1 in N month is Req Arr (N) _1, the required inventory quantity in N month is Req LS (N), and the sales volume in N month is Sales (N). Then, since the relational expression of ReqLS (N) = ReqLS (N-1) + Req Arr (N) _1-Sales (N) is established, the necessary arrival number 1 after (N + 1) months is calculated using this relational expression. Calculate and enter into the cell. Here, when the calculated value of the required arrival number 1 is negative, zero is input. In addition, the required arrival number 2 is input with the same value as the required arrival number 1 as an initial value.

  Further, in step S14, the number of required arrivals 1 for each production month is calculated based on the required arrivals 1 and the local arrival ratio. In this embodiment, 60% of the previous month's production volume and 40% of the previous month's production volume arrive at the site in the current month, so 60% of the required arrival number 1 was produced in the previous month. Therefore, 40% of the required arrival number 1 is the number produced last month. When the required number of arrivals 1 for each production month is calculated for each month after the (N + 1) month and entered into the corresponding cell, the supply and demand plan table is in the state shown in FIG.

  When the required arrival numbers 1 and 2, the required inventory number, and the required arrival number breakdown after (N + 1) month are input in this way, the supply and demand plan table preparation unit 11c calculates the number of N-month production based on the required arrival number breakdown. Calculate and input into the corresponding cell (step S15). The production volume in N month is equivalent to the total of the current month's volume in N month, the previous month's volume in (N + 1) month, the previous month's volume in (N + 2) month, and the previous month's volume in (N + 3) month. However, in the present embodiment, the total number of vehicles for the month before (N + 1) month and the number of vehicles for the month before (N + 2) month is the total, so the number of vehicles produced in N month is calculated as 40 units.

  As described above, according to the above processing procedure, instead of calculating the number of N-month production using past performance data as in the past, if the number of arrivals required in the future is assumed to change according to the sales plan, Since the breakdown of the number of required arrivals by month of production is calculated and the number of N month production is calculated based on this breakdown, the number of N month production does not become a negative value. Thus, the production quantity is calculated while performing correction control so that the negative production quantity does not occur.

  Subsequently, based on the production volume in N month calculated in step S15, the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c calculates the local arrival volume, the arrival volume difference, the local inventory volume, and the local inventory level in (N + 1) month. , Input in the corresponding cell (step S16). If the production volume in N month is Prod (N) and the local arrival volume in N month is Arr (N), Arr (N) = P0 x Prod (N) + P1 x Prod (N-1) ) + P2 × Prod (N−2) + P3 × Prod (N−3) is used to calculate the number of local arrivals in (N + 1) month and input it in the corresponding cell. Also, if the difference in arrivals in N months is DiffArr (N) and the required arrivals 2 is Req Arr (N) _2, the relational expression Diff Arr (N) = Req Arr (N) _2−Arr (N) Therefore, the difference in the number of arrivals in (N + 1) months is calculated and input into the corresponding cell. Further, using the conventional relational expression 2 LS (N) = LS (N-1) + Arr (N) −Sales (N), the local inventory quantity for (N + 1) month is calculated and input into the corresponding cell. . Then, the local inventory level for (N + 1) month is calculated from the calculated local inventory quantity and sales quantity, and is input into the corresponding cell. In this way, through the processes of steps S15 and S16, a supply and demand plan table in a state as shown in FIG. 5 is created in which data other than the number of units produced is input for (N + 1) month.

  Here, the calculated difference in the number of arrivals in (N + 1) month is caused by the calculation of the number of production performed while performing correction control so that a negative production number does not occur. Therefore, the supply and demand plan table creation unit 11c performs correction control so that a negative production number is not generated while reflecting the difference in the number of arrivals in the preparation process of the supply and demand plan table after (N + 1) month, and the number of production in (N + 1) month. Is calculated. Specifically, by adding the difference in arrivals to the required arrivals 2 of the month in which the largest number of (N + 1) month productions arrive locally (hereinafter referred to as the reflection target month), The required arrival number 2 is corrected to the required arrival number 2 reflecting the difference in arrival number, and accordingly, the necessary arrival number breakdown of the reflection target month is corrected (step S17). In this embodiment, since the reflection target month can be identified as the (N + 2) month of the next month based on the local arrival ratio, the required arrival number 2 of the (N + 2) month is updated to the value added as described above. At this time, when the added value is negative, zero is updated and input. In FIG. 6, the required arrival number 2 for (N + 2) month is calculated as −324 units, and accordingly, the breakdown of the required arrival number is once calculated as −194 units for the previous month and −130 units for the previous month ( In the figure, the required arrival number 2 is finally updated as 0, and accordingly, the required arrival number breakdown for the previous month and the previous month is also 0. With the above processing, the supply and demand plan table is in a state as shown in FIG.

  In this way, when the breakdown of the required arrival number in the month (N + 2), which is the reflection target month, is corrected, the demand-supply plan table creation unit 11c can calculate the (N + 1) month only when the (N + 1) month production number can be calculated. The production number is calculated and input into the corresponding cell (steps S18 and S19). Here, the case where the number of production in (N + 1) month can be calculated is the case where there is data of the necessary arrival number necessary for calculating the number of production in (N + 1) month. In the subsequent processing, the processes in and after step S15 are repeatedly performed until the number of production after (N + 1) month can no longer be calculated, and when the number of production cannot be calculated, the creation of the supply and demand plan table ends. (Step S18).

  In this embodiment, the number of units produced in (N + 1) month is the total number of units for the month before (N + 2) month and the number of units for the month before (N + 3) month, so the number of units produced in (N + 1) month is 0 units. Calculated. Furthermore, based on the calculated (N + 1) month production quantity, the supply and demand plan table preparation unit 11c performs the process of step S16, and (N + 2) month local arrival quantity, arrival quantity difference, local inventory quantity, and local Calculate the stock level and enter it in the cell. In addition, the process of step S17 is performed to correct the required arrival number 2 in the (N + 3) month that is the reflection target month, and further correct the breakdown of the required arrival number in the (N + 3) month that is the reflection target month. Through the above processing, the supply and demand plan table is in a state as shown in FIG.

  In FIG. 7, since there is data of the required arrival number breakdown necessary for calculating the number of production in (N + 2) month, the number of production in (N + 2) month is calculated. In the present embodiment, the number of units produced in (N + 2) month is calculated as 400 units. Further, based on the calculated (N + 2) month production quantity, the supply and demand plan table preparation unit 11c performs the process of step S16, and (N + 3) month local arrival quantity, arrival quantity difference, local inventory quantity, Calculate the stock level and enter it in the cell. Further, the process of step S17 is performed to correct the required arrival number 2 in the (N + 4) month that is the reflection target month, and to correct the breakdown of the required arrival number in the (N + 4) month that is the reflection target month accordingly. With the above processing, the supply and demand plan table is in a state as shown in FIG.

  In FIG. 8, since there is data of the required arrival number breakdown necessary for calculating the number of production in (N + 3) month, the number of production in (N + 3) month is calculated. In this embodiment, the number of units produced in (N + 3) month is calculated as 856 units. Further, based on the calculated (N + 3) month production number, the supply and demand plan table preparation unit 11c performs the process of step S16, and (N + 4) month local arrival number, arrival number difference, local inventory number, Calculate the stock level and enter it in the cell. Further, the process of step S17 is performed to correct the required arrival number 2 in the (N + 5) month that is the reflection target month, and further correct the necessary arrival number breakdown in the (N + 5) month that is the reflection target month. With the above processing, the supply and demand plan table is in a state as shown in FIG.

  In FIG. 9, there is no data after the (N + 6) month, and there is no data on the required arrival number breakdown necessary for calculating the number of productions in the (N + 4) month. Therefore, in this embodiment, the supply and demand plan table of FIG. 9 is created, and all the processes are completed.

  The data of the supply and demand plan table as shown in FIG. 9 obtained through each of the above processes is output when the planner inputs a command to output the supply and demand plan table data from the input unit 13 of the supply and demand plan creation device 10. Is output from the unit 14. The planner can clearly determine whether to adopt the obtained supply-demand plan or re-create the supply-demand plan by referring to the output supply-demand plan table data. In the present embodiment, the prepared supply and demand plan table of FIG. 9 shows that at least four months are required to almost converge to the desired inventory level. Therefore, based on this, the planner will either change the initial plan to lower the inventory level to 1.5 in 3 months and adopt a supply and demand plan to reduce it to 1.8 in 4 months, In this case, it is determined whether to change the values of items that can be input by the planner (sales volume and required inventory level) and re-create the supply and demand plan table.

  Here, when the planner determines that the obtained supply and demand plan is to be adopted and inputs an instruction to store the generated supply and demand plan table data from the input unit 13, the supply and demand plan table data is stored in the storage device by the data registration unit 11a. 15 is stored. Further, the data on the number of N-month productions in the supply-demand plan table data is transmitted from the communication control unit 12 to the client device 20 of the manufacturer via the network 30. As a result, the manufacturer produces products for N months based on the received production quantity data.

  As described above, according to the supply and demand plan creation device 10 in the present embodiment, a rational supply and demand plan table can be created without calculating a negative production quantity in the process of creating a supply and demand plan table as in the past. Can do.

  The supply and demand plan creation device 10 in the above-described embodiment is typically realized by causing a computer system to execute a program describing the functions and processing operations of each device described above.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the supply-and-demand plan preparation system in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process by the supply-and-demand plan preparation apparatus of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the supply-and-demand plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the supply-and-demand plan table preparation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the demand-and-supply plan table created by the procedure of the demand-and-supply plan table creation process of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the demand-and-supply plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the conventional demand-and-supply plan table preparation process. It is a figure which shows an example of the demand-and-supply plan table in the middle of preparation by the procedure of the conventional demand-and-supply plan table preparation process. It is a figure which shows an example of the demand-and-supply plan table created by the procedure of the conventional demand-and-supply plan table creation process.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Supply-demand plan preparation apparatus, 11 Calculation part, 11a Data registration part, 11b Supply-demand plan item data search part, 11c Supply-demand plan table preparation part, 12 Communication control part, 13 Input part, 14 Output part, 15 Storage device, 20 Client apparatus 30 network.

Claims (6)

A supply and demand plan creation device that creates a supply and demand plan that sets the number of products produced at a manufacturer for each unit period, the number of arrivals at a dealer, the number of inventory at a dealer, and the number of products sold.
Product production, arrival, inventory, sales, and actual data on the logistics lead time from the product manufacturer to the dealer, and products for each unit period after the target unit period. Data acquisition means for acquiring plan data relating to the number of units sold and the number of units in stock;
A number calculation means for calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period based on the actual data and plan data acquired by the data acquisition means;
With
The number calculating means is
Based on the plan data, a process for calculating a planned stock quantity that is a stock quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned inventory quantity, the actual data, and the data relating to the inventory quantity and sales quantity in the target unit period, a process of calculating the planned arrival quantity that is the arrival quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned arrival number and the data related to the distribution lead time of the actual data, a process of calculating a breakdown of the number of units by unit period in which the product in the planned arrival number is produced;
A process of calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period from the number breakdown,
Supply and demand plan creation device characterized by performing. In the supply and demand plan creation device according to claim 1,
The number calculating means further includes:
Based on the calculated number of products produced in the target unit period, a process for calculating the number of products arrived in the next unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the calculated arrival number in the next unit period, the planned arrival number after the next unit period, and data on the distribution lead time of the actual data, a product in the planned arrival number after the next unit period is produced. Update the number breakdown by unit period,
A process of calculating the number of products produced in the next unit period from the updated number breakdown,
Supply and demand plan creation device characterized by performing. A supply and demand plan creation method for creating a supply and demand plan that sets the number of products produced at a manufacturer for each unit period, the number of arrivals at a dealer, the number of inventory at a dealer, and the number of products sold.
Product production, arrival, inventory, sales, and actual data on the logistics lead time from the product manufacturer to the dealer, and products for each unit period after the target unit period. A data acquisition process for acquiring plan data related to the number of units sold and in stock,
A unit number calculating step of calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period based on the actual data and plan data acquired in the data acquiring step;
With
The number calculating step includes
Based on the plan data, calculating a planned stock quantity that is the stock quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned inventory quantity, the actual data, and the data relating to the inventory quantity and sales quantity in the target unit period, calculating the planned arrival quantity that is the arrival quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned arrival number and data related to the distribution lead time of the actual data, calculating a breakdown of the number of units by unit period in which the product in the planned arrival number is produced;
Calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period from the number breakdown;
A supply and demand plan creation method characterized by including: In the supply-demand plan creation method according to claim 3,
The number calculating step further includes:
Based on the calculated number of products produced in the target unit period, calculating the arrival number in the next unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the calculated arrival number in the next unit period, the planned arrival number after the next unit period, and data on the distribution lead time of the actual data, a product in the planned arrival number after the next unit period is produced. Updating the unit breakdown by unit period,
Calculating the number of products produced in the next unit period from the updated number breakdown,
A supply and demand plan creation method characterized by including: Create a supply and demand plan that causes the computer system to execute a process to create a supply and demand plan that sets the number of products produced at the manufacturer for each unit period, the number of arrivals at the dealer, the number of inventory at the dealer, and the number of products sold A program,
Product production, arrival, inventory, sales, and actual data on the logistics lead time from the product manufacturer to the dealer, and products for each unit period after the target unit period. Processing to obtain plan data relating to sales and inventory of
Based on the plan data, a process for calculating a planned stock quantity that is a stock quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned inventory quantity, the actual data, and the data relating to the inventory quantity and sales quantity in the target unit period, a process of calculating the planned arrival quantity that is the arrival quantity for each unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the planned arrival number and the data related to the distribution lead time of the actual data, a process of calculating a breakdown of the number of units by unit period in which the product in the planned arrival number is produced;
A process of calculating the number of products produced in the target unit period from the number breakdown,
A supply and demand plan creation program characterized by executing In the supply and demand plan creation program according to claim 5,
further,
Based on the calculated number of products produced in the target unit period, a process for calculating the number of products arrived in the next unit period after the target unit period;
Based on the calculated arrival number in the next unit period, the planned arrival number after the next unit period, and data on the distribution lead time of the actual data, a product in the planned arrival number after the next unit period is produced. Update the number breakdown by unit period,
A process of calculating the number of products produced in the next unit period from the updated number breakdown,
A supply and demand plan creation program characterized by executing

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