JP2001209629A - Method for calculating the number of commodities planned to be sold or the number of commodities planned to be produced - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an improved method for calculating the number of commodities planned to be sold or the number of commodities planned to be produced so as to be applied also to a commodity whose delivery period from the reception of an order up to selling is sharply changed due to the trend of a market, a restriction condition to a production line or the like. SOLUTION: A selling/production planning processing part 4 makes a plan concerned with a demand including the backlog and the number of commodities planned to be sold on the basis of the number SKn of commodities planned to be produced in a period N entered from each result information/plan information storage part 8 before a period N-1 entered from a result information storage part 10 and the number of commodities predicted to be ordered after the previously specified period N through an input processing part 2 for inputting the number of commodities predicted to be ordered and makes a plan concerned with supply including the number of commodities planned to be produced and the number of commodities planned to be stored. When the number of commodities planned to be supplied is found out, the backlog and the number of commodities planned to be sold are corrected as necessary on the basis of respective values and corrects the number of commodities planned to be produced and the number of commodities planned to be stored as necessity on the basis of respective corrected values. The processing described above is repeated to make a plan.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION The present invention relates to a method for calculating a planned sales quantity or a planned production quantity of a product, particularly, a period required from receiving an order to selling the product greatly fluctuates due to market trends, production line constraints, and the like. The present invention relates to a method of calculating a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity that can be applied to a possible product.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art When a sales plan or a production plan is made, a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity of a product is calculated. The production plan quantity and the like are determined by considering an appropriate stock quantity in the predicted value.

[0003] However, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the number of demands calculated by taking into account market trends and the like. For example, the prediction of the sales quantity or the production quantity of a product whose production number is limited by the constraint conditions becomes complicated, and the prediction may be largely deviated.

Therefore, the applicant of the present application filed Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open
As disclosed in Japanese Patent Publication No. 49597 (hereinafter referred to as “Prior Art Document 1”), a backlog record (or a backlog plan) that has been ordered but not yet sold is used as a numerator, and an actual order record (or an order plan) is obtained as a denominator. The concept of the back-order rate was introduced to improve the forecast accuracy of each planned quantity including the back-order plan.

[0005]

Conventionally, however, a demand plan including a sales plan and a backlog plan is made based on a given order forecast plan and a backlog rate. Since the supply plan to be made with reference to the plan is calculated and made separately from the demand plan, there is a problem in accuracy in the plan made.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and an object of the present invention is that the period required from receiving an order to selling the product greatly varies depending on market trends, production line constraints, and the like. It is an object of the present invention to provide an improved method of calculating a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity of a product that can be applied to a product that can be used.

[0007]

In order to achieve the above object, a method of calculating a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention comprises the steps of: The actual quantity data of the actual stock, actual sales, and the number of back orders that have been ordered but not yet sold are sequentially accumulated, and the sales plan quantity or production plan quantity of the product in the future predetermined period is given to each actual quantity data and given. In the method of calculating the sales plan quantity or production plan quantity of the product executed by the system that plans based on the forecasted order quantity, the back order plan, sales plan, and the forecasted order quantity are calculated based on the backlog result and the given forecasted order quantity. A demand planning step for planning the future demand for the product by planning the expected order quantity for a period after the given period; A supply planning step of preparing a supply plan of the product by planning a production plan quantity in a period after a given period based on the production plan quantity and the inventory plan quantity and the production plan quantity. The present invention is characterized in that a sales plan or a given production plan is corrected based on the obtained index value.

The index value obtained in the supply planning step is a total order sales realization rate obtained by dividing the sales plan by the sum of the actual stock and the actual production.

Further, the present invention is characterized in that a sales plan is made based on a total production / sales realization rate obtained by dividing the sales plan quantity by the sum of the actual stock quantity and the production plan quantity.

After calculating the sales plan quantity or the production plan quantity of the product, the actual estimated value of the period is calculated based on the plan value up to the present time in the active period and the actual quantity data in the current period. It is characterized by the following.

Here, the predicted quantity is a value obtained by estimating the sales quantity or production quantity of a certain commodity at a certain point in the future at the present time. The planned quantity refers to a quantity determined as a value necessary to achieve a certain purpose or a quantity that can inevitably occur in relation to the planned quantity due to other factors in a given situation.

[0012]

Preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In the present embodiment, a vehicle that starts production after receiving an order as a product will be described as an example.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a system for carrying out a method of calculating a sales and production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention. This system is based on the sales forecast input unit 2
It has a production plan drafting processing section 4 and a result output processing section 6. The predicted order quantity input processing unit 2 receives the predicted value of the ordered quantity from the input period N to the required time and stores it in the plan information storage unit 8. Sales and production planning process 4
Makes a sales plan and a production plan based on actual information such as actual sales accumulated in the actual information storage unit 10 and the estimated number of orders and the planned number stored in the plan information storage unit 8. The result output processing unit 6 stores the sales plan and the production plan created by the sales / production planning processing unit 4 in the plan information storage unit 8 and displays them on a display (not shown).

FIG. 2 is a diagram schematically showing actual information and plan information related to making a supply plan and a demand plan for a certain product in the present embodiment. This is called the supply and demand table. Here, the relationship between each result information, each plan information, and various information will be described with reference to this supply and demand table.

The upper part of the supply and demand table shows the supply, and the lower part shows the relationship between each piece of information constituting the demand. The information on supply is composed of performance information including production results, sales results, and inventory results, and plan information including production plans, sales plans, and inventory plans. Information on demand includes performance information consisting of actual orders, sales, and backlogs,
It is composed of forecast information composed of an order prediction and plan information composed of a sales plan and a backlog plan. The performance information is information indicating the number of vehicles actually sold and produced. The prediction information is information including the number of vehicles at the time of estimating the planned number of vehicles in the future at present.
The plan information is information including the number of vehicles determined as the quantity required to achieve the purpose.

Note that the "plan" is to be made, not the number of vehicles, but the specific contents of the plan to be made are the sales quantity or production quantity in each plan, that is, the number of vehicles. Therefore, in the description of the present embodiment, the term “plan” may refer to the number of units for convenience of description.

In this embodiment, a supply plan is made after a demand plan is made. If a problem occurs during the process of drawing up the supply plan, the demand plan is reviewed and revised, and then the supply plan is drawn up again. As described above, the present embodiment is characterized in that a supply plan and a demand plan are finally determined while reconciling a demand plan and a supply plan, thereby drafting a sales plan and a production plan in each period. And Further, when planning a plan, the concept of a total order sales realization rate and a total production sales realization rate, which will be described later in detail, is introduced, so that a more accurate plan can be made. In the case of vehicle sales management and production management, the period is usually in units of months, and therefore, the description will be made in accordance with this embodiment, but it can be set arbitrarily depending on the product. Less than,
FIG. 3 shows details of the planning process in the present embodiment.
This will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

The sales / production plan drafting processing section 4 executes a period N-
Each piece of performance information before 1 is fetched from the performance information storage unit 10 (step 101). That is, all the result information is read. Subsequently, the sales / production planning processing section 4
Already in the implementation phase planned production plan, specifically taking out a production plan number SK _n periods N from the planning information storage section 8 (step 102). Further, the sales / production plan drafting processing unit 4 takes out the predicted number of orders received after the period N stored in the plan information storage unit 8 by receiving the predicted number of orders input processing unit 2 (step 103). According to FIG. 2, the values of JY _n and JY _{n + 1} in the supply and demand table are prepared.

As a result of the processing in the above preparatory stage, FIG.
Period N-1 all previous information in supply and demand table shown in, the period N of the production plan number SK _n and order prediction number _JY n, JY
_{This means that} the portion of _{n + 1} is filled. In the present embodiment, a plan for the period N or later is drafted by calculating each planned number of units in the subsequent processing and filling the supply and demand table.

In step 104, the number of unsold and planned sales units, which are one of the characteristic processes of this embodiment, is determined.

In Prior Document 1, each planned value of back-ordering and sales is described by focusing on the seasonality and stability of the back-ordering rate, which is the ratio of the number of back-ordered vehicles to the predicted number of ordered vehicles during the planning period. Although the values of HK _n and CK _n were derived, in the present embodiment, in place of the backlog rate, new indexes such as the total order sales realization rate and the total production sales realization rate are newly provided, and a more accurate planning is performed. Made it possible. As described above, the backlog rate is obtained by using the actual backlog of a product that has received an order but not yet sold as a numerator and the actual order received as a denominator. here,
The total order sales realization rate and the total production sales realization rate will be described in detail.

The relations established in the back-order, order-receiving, and sales constituting the demand plan shown in FIG. 2 can be expressed by the following equations.

CK _n = CZ _n−1 + JY _n −HK _n (1) This is a relationship that is established not only in the period N but also in all periods of the actual period and the prediction / planning period. On the other hand, the relations established in inventory, production, and sales that constitute the supply plan can be expressed by the following equations.

ZK _n = ZZ _n−1 + SK _n −HK _n (2) This is also a relation that holds in all periods.

Next, the total order sales realization rate α in the period N
_n is defined as follows.

Α _n = HK _n / (CZ _n−1 + JY _n ) (3) Further, the total production / sales realization rate β _n is defined as follows.

Β _n = HK _n / (SK _n + ZZ _n−1 ) (4) As can be understood from the above equation, the total order sales realization rate is
This is a ratio that indicates whether or not the total of the backlog actual (or predicted backorder) and the actual order received (or predicted order) during that period could be sold, but the total sum of inquiries from customers in the sales channel (total number of received orders) ) Can be said to be an index indicating the sales ability such as how much can be sold. This is the main factor that determines the sales plan when demand exceeds the sales capacity of the sales channel, such as immediately after product launch. That is, the reason why the index called the total order sales realization rate is used in the planning is that the sales plan may have to be determined depending on the sales ability. It should be noted that the back-order performance and the back-order forecast, and the order-received result and the order-received forecast have the same positional relationship in each period in the supply and demand table, and therefore the formulas for expressing the relationship between each result and each plan are the same. In such a case, it is simply referred to as "remaining order" without being described as the actual backing order (or the predicted operation) as described above.

On the other hand, the total production / sales realization rate is a ratio indicating how much the sum of inventory and production in that period has led to sales. This is the main factor that regulates the number of units sold when the demand for some reason exceeds the supply capacity on the production side. In other words, when the plan is revised, the index of the gross production / sales realization rate is used, even if there is an enormous number of orders, there are cases where it is necessary to limit due to constraints on the supply side etc. Because. The above indicates that during periods when demand significantly exceeds sales and supply capacities, the total order-to-order sales realization rate and the total production-to-sales realization rate are similar to those of the same product and other products in the same period in the past. This shows the usefulness of the operation of the present embodiment in which a plan is drafted using the ratio for the actual results.

First, the process of creating a plan based on the total order sales realization rate will be described. The total order sales realization rate in the same period N of the same product or similar product in the past can be obtained by the above equation (3).
_n-1 is already values for a result value, JY _n since given in step _{103, HK n = α n (} CZ n-1 + JY n) ··· (5) This equation (5) DOO Note remaining planning CK _n from equation (1) can be obtained by _{CK n = (CZ n-1} + JY n) (1-α n) ··· (6). Even after the period N + 1, the same relational expression is used to derive sales and backlog plans.

When the planned and unsold units are determined in this way, the sales / production planning unit 4 subsequently determines the planned number of units from the period N, N + 1 to the required time (step S1). 105). By the way, the inventory ratio is
It can be defined by a formula obtained by using the actual stock (inventory plan) of a product as a numerator and the actual sales (sales plan) as a denominator, that is, the formula of stock ratio = stock / sales. Note that “stock” refers to the actual stock or stock plan as described above. The same applies to “sales”. The stock ratio is a value that is input in advance from the predicted order number input unit 2 and stored in the plan information storage unit 8. Since the method of obtaining the stock ratio of each engine may be the same as that of the prior art document 1, the details are omitted in the present embodiment. Therefore, for example, the inventory plan ZK _{n +1} for the period N + 1 can be obtained by ZK _{n + 1} = the inventory ratio for the period (N + 1) × HK _{n + 1} . Each stock plan after the period N + 1 can also be calculated by this formula. Incidentally, the inventory planning number ZK _n in the period N, as the determined a is not changed, is a value calculated by the _{ZK n = ZZ n-1 +} HK n -SK n. As described above, each planned stock quantity can be calculated.

Next, the last remaining production plan in the supply and demand table is drafted (step 106). Period N + 1 of the production plan _{SK n + 1} can be determined by _{SK n + 1 = HK n +} 1 -ZK n + ZK n + 1 ··· (7). In this way, each planned number in the demand-supply table can be calculated according to the above-mentioned equations that can be easily supported by using the demand-supply table.

Next, the process of correcting the planned sales volume based on the total production / sales realization rate in step 107 will be described. This process is different from the process of determining the back-order and planned sales volume using the total order sales realization rate (step 104), and is a correction process. Therefore, it is assumed that production and inventory plans have been drafted. The total production and sales realization rate in the same period N of the same product or similar product in the past can be obtained by the above equation (4).
_n-1 and SK _n is the sales plan HK _n Since the already-value, HK _n = β _n the _{(ZZ n-1 + SK n} ) ··· (8). From this equation (8) and equation (1), the backlog schedule CK
_n is, _CK n ₌ and modified _{(CZ n-1 + JY n-} ) -β n (ZZ n-1 + SK n) ··· (9), inventory planning ZK _n also equation (8) and equation (2) Is corrected as follows: ZK _n = (ZZ _n−1 + SK _n ) (1−β _n ) (10) A highly accurate plan can be prepared by the above logic or by arbitrarily combining with the logic of the backlog rate according to the state of the product.

Thereafter, the sales / production planning processing section 4
When the sales plan and the inventory plan are corrected, the production plan is corrected (step 108). This may be corrected according to the above equation (7).

Then, after the period N + 1, it is checked whether or not the planned production number up to the required time matches the operation status of the production, and the result is displayed (step 1).
09). For the contents of the check, the same method as in the prior art document 1 may be used, so that the details of this processing will be omitted.

As a result of the above processing, when the planned production quantity is finally determined, the processing result is stored in the plan information storage section 8 by the result output processing section 6 and simultaneously output to the screen (step 110).

Next, the operation of evaluating and correcting the plan based on the order pitch will be described.

The order pitch indicates more detailed minimum unit plans and actual results within the planning period. For example, if the day within the period is the minimum unit, the daily plan and actual result correspond to the order pitch. Hereinafter, the operation of the present embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

When each of the actual numbers counted for each day is stored in the actual information storage unit 10 in correspondence with each planned number of the day (step 201), the sales / production plan planning processing unit 4
Estimates the number of actual orders received during the period N based on the actual orders received so far and the expected orders received during the period N in the middle of the planning period N (step 202). In order to perform this estimation, in the present embodiment, three logics are prepared: a deviation rate keep logic, a remaining days plan keep pattern logic, and a cumulative previous year keep logic.

Among them, the deviation rate keep logic is as follows: deviation rate k of the order pitch is calculated by: k = (cumulative daily result up to estimated date) / (cumulative daily plan up to estimated date) By definition, the estimated value of the actual orders received in period N is

(Equation 1) Can be obtained by the following equation. This logic is
Since the state at the time of the estimation date is extended straightforwardly to the end of the term, it is an estimated value to be viewed as a consequence.

The remaining days plan keep pattern logic is based on the assumption that the cumulative value of the daily result at the estimated date is x, and the cumulative value of the daily plan from the (estimated date + 1) day to the end of the month is y. The estimate is

(Equation 2) Can be obtained by the following equation. This logic is
The estimated value is based on the premise that the daily plan that has already been determined is maintained by making an effort after the (estimated date + 1) day.

Then, the accumulated logic for the previous year is m
Zm is the order received for the same month a year ago, x is the cumulative daily result at the estimated date and time, and Xm is the cumulative daily result for the same month at the same estimated date m years ago. The estimate is

(Equation 3) Can be obtained by the following equation. This logic is
This is an estimated value obtained based on the hypothesis that the situation will be similar to that at the same time m years ago.

The sales and production planning processing section 4 executes any one of the three logics selected by the person who drafts the plan according to the situation of the product when estimation is required, and estimates the actual order received. Value.

Next, at step 104 described above, the ratio data such as the backlog rate or the total order sales realization rate, the total production sales realization rate, and the stock ratio used as the basis of the plan, and the estimation of the order actual obtained at the above step 202 Using the values, the actual number of units sold and sold in the period N during the execution of the plan is estimated in the period N (step 203), and the inventory and the inventory ratio when the production plan is not changed are estimated. Is fixed, and an appropriate correction value of the production plan is calculated (step 204). Hereinafter, when the plan is set based on the backlog rate in the initial stage, that is, in steps 101 to 110 in the flowchart shown in FIG. 2, when the plan is set based on the total order sales realization rate, the plan is set based on the total production sales realization rate. A description will be given of a procedure for estimating the number of units in the three patterns and setting a proper plan.

First, when a plan is set based on the back order rate, the estimated value of the back order plan is

(Equation 4) In addition, the estimated value of the sales plan is obtained from the equations (1) and (14).

(Equation 5) Can be requested. Also, if the production plan is fixed, the estimated value of the inventory plan is

(Equation 6) Can be requested. Also, the estimated value of the appropriate inventory plan when the inventory rate is assumed to be fixed is calculated by the equations (2) and (15) and the definition of the inventory rate.

(Equation 7) And thus the inventory plan estimate is

(Equation 8) Can be requested.

Subsequently, when a plan is set based on the total order sales realization rate, the estimated values of the sales and backlog plans are respectively

(Equation 9)

(Equation 10) Can be requested. In addition, when the production plan is fixed, the estimated value of the inventory plan is calculated by the equations (2) and (1).
9)

[Equation 11] Can be requested. Also, the estimated value of the appropriate inventory plan when the inventory rate is assumed to be fixed is calculated by the equations (2) and (15) and the definition of the inventory rate.

(Equation 12) And thus the inventory plan estimate is

(Equation 13) Can be requested.

Finally, when a plan is set based on the total production / sales realization rate, the estimated values of the sales and backlog plans are respectively

[Equation 14]

(Equation 15) Can be requested. As is clear from the supply and demand table, sales are determined by inventory and production on the supply side, but sales do not change even if the order status changes. Therefore, the value of the appropriate production plan does not change from the value set conventionally.

In the manner described above, the estimated value and the appropriate value after the period N + 1 can be calculated. If the production plan has to be fixed in accordance with the three patterns of setting the plan based on the above-mentioned backlog rate, total order sales realization rate or total production sales realization rate, and the change of the inventory rate or the case where the production plan can be changed. The optimal production plan value can be checked according to changes in the status of orders, enabling more appropriate production and sales activities than before.

According to the present embodiment, a demand plan is made, and then a supply plan is made. Then, in the course of drafting the supply plan, if the planned quantity becomes inconvenient, the demand plan is reviewed and corrected, and then the supply plan is drafted again. In this way, since the supply plan and the demand plan are finally determined while reconciling the demand plan and the supply plan, the sales plan and the production plan can be drafted with higher accuracy. Further, in the present embodiment, in making a plan, indexes such as a total order sales realization rate and a total production sales realization rate are newly provided.

In the present embodiment, the case where the present invention is applied to a system for drafting a sales plan or a production plan of a vehicle, assuming the case of a vehicle as a product, is applicable to other products. Needless to say,

[0050]

According to the present invention, a plan relating to demand such as backlog and a plan relating to supply such as production are linked, and the demand plan is reviewed depending on the contents of the planned supply plan to correct the production plan or the sales plan. While planning,
More accurate planning can be realized.

Also, by introducing the concept of the total order sales realization rate or the total production sales realization rate, the prediction accuracy of the plan itself can be improved.

Further, since the actual estimated value is calculated during the execution period, the optimum production plan quantity can be confirmed in accordance with the change in the status of the order. For this reason, the administrator can take appropriate measures such as making a correction to reduce the divergence rate between the plan and the actual, and thus can perform more appropriate production and sales activities than ever before. .

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a system for implementing a method for calculating a sales and production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a supply-and-demand table schematically showing a relationship between various types of information used for planning in the present embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a process of a sales production plan quantity calculation method according to the embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a process of evaluating and correcting a plan based on an order pitch in the present embodiment.

[Explanation of symbols]

2 Input unit for forecasted order quantity, 4 Sales / production planning processing unit, 6 Result output processing unit, 8 Planning information storage unit, 1
0 Result information storage, 12 Production condition input storage.

Claims (4)

[Claims] For each specific period of time, actual quantity data of a production result, an inventory result, a sales result, and an order receipt but not yet sold result are sequentially accumulated for a specific product, and the product in a future predetermined period is accumulated. In the calculation method of the sales plan quantity or production plan quantity of the product, which is executed by the system that plans the sales plan quantity or production plan quantity of each product based on each actual quantity data and the given forecasted order quantity, Backlog schedule based on the forecasted order quantity
A demand planning step for planning the future demand of the product by planning the sales order and the forecasted order quantity in the period after the given period, and the inventory based on the actual stock and the given production plan quantity. A supply planning step of drafting a supply plan of the product by drafting a production plan quantity in a period after the period in which the planned quantity and the production plan quantity are given, and an index value obtained in the supply planning step. A method of calculating a sales production plan quantity or a production plan quantity of a product, wherein a sales plan or a given production plan is corrected based on the sales plan. 2. The total order sales realization rate obtained by dividing the sales plan by the sum of the actual inventory and the actual production in the supply planning step. Calculation method of sales plan quantity or production plan quantity of the product. 3. The product sales plan according to claim 2, wherein a sales plan is made based on a total production sales realization rate obtained by dividing the sales plan quantity by the sum of the actual stock and the production plan quantity. How to calculate quantity or production plan quantity. 4. After calculating the sales plan quantity or the production plan quantity of the product, the actual estimated value of the period is calculated based on the plan value up to the present time in the active period and the actual quantity data in the current period. 2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the sales plan quantity or the production plan quantity of the product is calculated.