DE102022200130A1 - Method for determining the need for goods and/or services in at least one predetermined local area, computer program product and need determination system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for determining the demand (22) for goods and/or services (14) in at least one predetermined local area (16) using a demand determination system (10), with the steps: - determining an actual state (18) of a Demand for goods and/or services (14) in the local area (16) as a function of historical data for the local area (16) by means of an electronic computing device (12) of the needs determination system; (S1) - determining a future parameter (20) for the local area (16) by means of the electronic computing device (12); (S2) and determining the future demand for the local area (16) as a function of the actual state (18) and the future parameter (20) using the electronic computing device (12). (S3) The invention also relates to a computer program product and a needs determination system (10).

Description

The invention relates to a method for determining the need for goods and/or services in at least one predetermined local area using a needs determination system. The invention also relates to a computer program product and a needs determination system.

It is already known from the prior art that goods and services are offered at stationary locations. Customers first have to determine which shops provide the desired goods or services and then have to visit these locations. Goods and services that are offered on the move, such as coffee or ice cream, can usually not be located and operators often go to the same places where they think they will meet customers.

The DE 19 826222 A1 describes a method and apparatus for determining the need for supply items for points of need.

The EP 3446503 A1 describes a predictive routing for mobility.

The object of the present invention is to create a method, a computer program product and a needs determination system by means of which an improved provision of goods and/or services can be implemented.

This object is achieved by a method, a computer program product and a needs determination system according to the independent patent claims. Advantageous embodiments are specified in the dependent claims.

One aspect of the invention relates to a method for determining the need for goods and/or services in at least one predetermined local area using a needs determination system. An actual state of a need for goods and/or services in the local area is determined as a function of historical data for the local area using an electronic computing device of the needs determination system. A future parameter for the local area is determined using the electronic computing device. The future demand, in other words the determination of demand, for the local area is determined as a function of the current state and the future parameter using the electronic computing device.

In this way, a temporal and, in particular, spatial, predictive determination of the need for goods and services can be implemented, so that the corresponding goods and services are placed in the right place at the right time, so that as many customers as possible can be reached and, for example, the operators of such mobile shops can reach as many customers as possible .

In addition, the current state of the region under consideration, including mobility behavior (movement flows) and activity behavior of the population, can be mapped.

In particular, it is thus predicted when, where and how long customers are at certain locations. Customers are conveniently offered the goods and/or services they want. Dealers or operators reach as many customers as possible who take advantage of their offer. Furthermore, dealers and operators can operate their fleet of mobile service vehicles efficiently, in particular if necessary also autonomously. The mobile offering of goods and/or services means that stationary shops can be omitted and free space can be created in urban areas in this way. When controlling the transport of goods and the service, a holistic optimization can be used in real time, which fulfills other, for example weighted, target criteria, including with regard to traffic flow optimization, sustainability and efficient use of space.

In particular, a method for a temporal and spatial predictive determination of demand for goods and services is thus proposed. The method is used to determine when and where goods and/or services are in demand, so that the goods and/or services can be placed in good time and as needed using suitable routing.

According to an advantageous embodiment, a future event and/or a future weather and/or a future temperature are taken into account as future parameters. For example, appointments and events, for example events, can be viewed as events. Weather data, for example forecast weather, can also be used. Likewise, for example, points of interest, in particular as events, for example stadiums or parks, can be used as an event in order to carry out a corresponding prediction there. Depending on the weather, for example, goods such as umbrellas can be offered accordingly. Furthermore, the need for goods can also be determined as a function of the temperature, for example the probability is low temperatures increases that customers stay indoors and prefer warm products, for example, while customers are outdoors at high temperatures and prefer cold products, for example. Furthermore, various advertisements can also be viewed as an event and this advertisement can be implemented, for example, via social media or push notifications, which increases the likelihood of finding a customer at a location or being made aware of the offers.

Furthermore, it has proven to be advantageous if a future actual state in the local area is also determined and the future requirement is also determined as a function of the future actual state. For example, the future actual state can describe a future movement flow of people. In particular, the future actual state can thus determine a number of people and their direction of movement as well as their required needs. In particular, a prediction or adaptation of a movement flow is therefore carried out with further data in order to increase the probability of reaching the corresponding customers.

It is also advantageous if at least one movement flow of people in the local area is taken into account, at least in the actual state. The current status can be determined via customer/population data, traffic data, for example depending on motor vehicles or local public transport, the so-called points of interest, the listing of parking spaces, daily routines of the population from mobility surveys, points of interest or the like. Flows of movement are then modeled, which means when, where and how long the relevant people are in one place. These movement flows are then used to determine the current status.

It has also proven to be advantageous if at least the actual state is determined on the basis of a traffic simulation. For example, the traffic can be simulated using a corresponding simulation program and the actual state can be determined on the basis of the simulation. This makes it possible for the customer movement to be reliably determined or predicted, as a result of which the goods requirements can in turn be reliably determined.

In a further advantageous embodiment, at least the future requirement is determined using artificial intelligence, in particular using machine learning, using the electronic computing device. For example, neural networks can be used for this. Using artificial intelligence, it is thus possible to predict or adapt future movement flows.

Furthermore, it has proven to be advantageous if a time for future requirements is taken into account when determining requirements. In particular, the historical time for the historical data can also be used for this purpose, for example, in order to be able to predict the future requirement at an exact time. It is thus possible that the future requirement can also be determined as a function of the time, as a result of which a reliable forecast for the required goods and/or services can be implemented.

It is also advantageous if, in addition to determining the need, a transport option for the goods and/or services is determined using the electronic computing device. In particular, a routing of the goods and/or services can thus also be described. For this purpose, the optimal routes and suitable modes of transport, such as passenger cars, trucks or drones, can be determined with the help of current map data. The dealers or operators can then be informed when and where they should transport the goods and/or services in order to be on site in good time, or transport solutions can also be shown automatically.

The method presented is in particular a computer-implemented method. A further aspect of the invention therefore relates to a computer program product with program code means which cause an electronic computing device to carry out a method according to the preceding aspect when the program code means are processed by the electronic computing device. The computer program product can also be a so-called computer program. A further aspect of the invention therefore also relates to a computer-readable storage medium with the computer program product.

The invention also relates to a requirement determination system for determining the requirement for goods and/or services in at least one predetermined local area, with at least one electronic computing device, the requirement determination system being designed to carry out a method according to the preceding aspect. In particular, the method is carried out using the needs assessment system.

The electronic computing device has, for example, electronic components such as processors, circuits, in particular integrated circuits, and other electronic components in order to be able to carry out corresponding method steps.

The invention also includes developments of the requirements determination system according to the invention, which have features as have already been described in connection with the developments of the method according to the invention. For this reason, the corresponding developments of the needs determination system according to the invention are not described again here.

The invention also includes the combination of the features of the described embodiments.

• 1 eine schematische Seitenansicht gemäß einer Ausführungsform eines Bedarfsermittlungssystems; und
• 2 ein schematisches Ablaufdiagramm gemäß einer Ausführungsform des Verfahrens.

Exemplary embodiments of the invention are described below. For this shows:

• 1 a schematic side view according to an embodiment of a needs assessment system; and
• 2 a schematic flow chart according to an embodiment of the method.

The exemplary embodiments explained below are preferred exemplary embodiments of the invention. In the exemplary embodiments, the described components each represent individual features of the invention to be considered independently of one another, which also develop the invention independently of one another and are therefore also to be regarded as part of the invention individually or in a combination other than that shown. Furthermore, the exemplary embodiments described can also be supplemented by further features of the invention already described.

Elements with the same function are each provided with the same reference symbols in the figures.

1 shows a schematic side view of an embodiment of a needs determination system 10. The needs determination system 10 has at least one electronic computing device 12. The needs determination system 10 is designed to determine a need for goods and/or services 14 . The goods and/or services 14 are, in particular, mobile goods and/or services 14, which in the present case are provided by different motor vehicles. For example, goods 14a and services 14b can be provided.

In the method for determining the need for goods and/or services 14 in at least one predetermined local area 16, an actual state 18 of a need for goods and/or services 14 in the local area 16 is determined on the basis of historical data for the local area 16 using the electronic computing device 12. A future parameter 20 for the local area 16 is determined using the electronic computing device 20. The future requirement 22 ( 2 ) for the local area 16 is then determined as a function of the actual state 18 and the future parameter 20 by means of the electronic computing device 12.

2 shows a schematic flow chart according to an embodiment of the method. In the first step S1, the actual state 18 is displayed. For this purpose, for example, customer/population data, traffic data, for example from motor vehicles or from public transport, so-called points of interest (points of interest) and the utilization of parking spaces, daily routines of the population from mobility inquiries or the like can be displayed. This is shown in particular via block 24 . The actual state 18 of the local area 16 is then modeled again in block 26, for example by means of a traffic simulation. Here, for example, so-called flow of movements and locations of the customers are determined. The movement flows are then evaluated in block 28, for example in the form of a heat map, in particular when, where and how long a corresponding customer is at a location.

In particular, the actual state 18 of the local area 16 is determined and displayed in the first step S1. For this purpose, mobility simulations can be carried out using population data, map data of the local area 16, traffic data, utilization data of parking spaces and the mobility behavior of the population from mobility surveys. The movement flows of the region under consideration and the demand for goods and/or services 14 are in turn generated as output. With these flows of movement, statements can be made about when, where and how long customers are in one place. In the second step S2, in turn, these movement flows are adjusted with additional data. This is done in order to also be able to predict future movement flows. The adaptation can be carried out, for example, using artificial intelligence, for example using machine learning approaches. More data can This can be weather data 30, for example temperature, clouds, wind speed, dates for events, so-called events 32, but also targeted advertising in the form of push messages, social media or the like, for example, in order to steer the customer in a certain direction. The output of the second step S2 is then in turn a future actual state 34.

In the third step S3, the needs assessment 22 for the goods and/or services 14 then takes place in turn. With the help of the predicted movement flows, a probability can be determined as to where, when and how long customers are at certain locations. The need-based offer of goods and/or services 14 can thus be dispatched and placed in good time. A distinction can be made here, for example, between the fact that the customers learn via a platform, for example via a so-called application, that the goods and/or services 14 are offered at specific locations. This is shown in block 36 in the present case. Block 38 in turn shows in particular that the customer can find out via an application, for example, that the corresponding goods and/or services 14 are being offered. Due to the predictive needs assessment, the desired goods and/or services 14 can be in the vicinity or on the way to the customer. Alternatively, the fleet operator can also find out via the application when and where goods and/or services 14 are requested. The predictive routing can, for example, inform the operator in good time when and how the desired goods and/or services 14 are to be transported. In block 40, demand determination 22 is compared with real-time data, such as mobile phone data or other data that can be collected from the application, for example position data from the customer or the service provider. In addition, the needs-based offer can be improved via a so-called wish list in the application. The comparison or the adjustment from block 40 can in turn be fed back to needs assessment 22 . Furthermore, the adjustment can also be fed back to the actual state 18, in particular to the modeling of the actual state 18, in block 26, in particular via further simulations 42.

An optional fourth step S4 then in turn describes that the goods and/or services 14 can also be routed. For this purpose, current map data can be used, for example, to determine optimal routes and a suitable mode of transport, for example passenger car, truck or drone or a plurality of these. The dealers or operators are then informed when and how they should transport the goods and/or services 14 in order to be on site in good time or automatic transport solutions with the corresponding data can be routed. In particular, this routing and the determination of one's own transport types in the fourth step S4 can also be fed back via the further simulations 42 for modeling the actual state in block 26 .

Reference List

10

needs assessment system

12

electronic computing device

14

goods and/or services

14a

Were

14b

Services

16

local area

18

It's on

20

parameter

22

needs assessment

24

block

26

block

28

block

30

Weather

32

Event

34

future actual state

36

block

38

block

40

block

42

further simulation

S1 to S4

steps of the procedure

QUOTES INCLUDED IN DESCRIPTION

This list of documents cited by the applicant was generated automatically and is included solely for the better information of the reader. The list is not part of the German patent or utility model application. The DPMA assumes no liability for any errors or omissions.

Patent Literature Cited

• DE 19826222 A1 [0003]
• EP 3446503 A1 [0004]

Claims (10)

Method for determining the demand (22) for goods and/or services (14) in at least one predetermined local area (16) using a demand determination system (10), with the steps: - Determining an actual state (18) of a need for goods and/or services (14) in the local area (16) as a function of historical data for the local area (16) by means of an electronic computing device (12) of the needs determination system; (S1) - determining a future parameter (20) for the local area (16) by means of the electronic computing device (12); (S2) and - Determining the future demand for the local area (16) depending on the actual state (18) and the future parameters (20) by means of the electronic computing device (12). (S3) procedure after claim 1 , characterized in that a future event (32) and/or a future weather (30) and/or a future temperature are taken into account as a future parameter (20). procedure after claim 1 or 2 , characterized in that, in addition, a future actual state (34) in the local area (16) is determined and, in addition, the future requirement is determined as a function of the future actual state (34). Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that at least in the actual state (18) at least one movement flow of people in the local area (16) is taken into account. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that at least the actual state (18) is determined on the basis of a traffic simulation. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that the future requirement is determined by means of artificial intelligence, in particular by means of machine learning, using the electronic computing device (12). Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that a time for the future requirement is taken into account when determining the requirement (22). Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in addition to determining demand (22), a transport option for the goods and/or services (14) is determined by means of the electronic computing device (12). Computer program product with program code means which cause an electronic computing device (12) to do so when the program code means are processed by the electronic computing device (12), a method according to one of Claims 1 until 8th to perform. Requirements determination system (10) for determining requirements (22) for goods and/or services (14) in at least one predetermined local area (16), with at least one electronic computing device (12), the requirements determination system (10) for carrying out a method according to one the Claims 1 until 8th is trained.

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