CN110309998A - A kind of all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of critical path method - Google Patents
A kind of all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of critical path method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides one kind: each intermediate item is using decomposition step by step, the affirmative type at different levels formulated respectively, non-type certainly or mixed type organization and administration and target control plan, the organization and administration of foundation and the reviewing method of the target control multistage system of planning, it is evaluated according to organization and administration and the time parameter and estimate variance calculated result of the target control multistage system of planning, mainly evaluates content: (1) contract of project or predetermined duration；(2) system of planning duration that target duration, estimate variance, the probability of realization and the probability of the multistage system of planning are 100%；(3) at different levels, respectively organize governing plan, ESi, estimate variance, the ES that probability and probability are 100%i；(4) duration that duration, estimate variance, probability and the probability of at different levels, each tissue governing plan are 100%；(5) at different levels, each tissue governing plan, work in every ESi, estimate variance, the ES that probability and probability are 100%iDeng as evaluation foundation.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to critical path method technical fields, are the main compositions of critical path method project organic management Yu target control technology
One of part, specifically a kind of realization: can sufficiently Applied Computer Techniques carry out project or task take decompose step by step,
It is at different levels to formulate organization and administration and target control plan, the project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning of foundation respectively
Reviewing method.
Background technique
Eighties of last century early fifties, in order to be applicable in the development of production and the scientific research and technological development of relationship complexity
The managerial needs of job engineering, each advanced industrial country has all successively carried out the research of planning management new technology in the world, wherein
Successfully CPM (critical path method) and PERT (programme evaluation and review technique) is studied in the U.S. first, is established due to such methods and is closed in work
It is the formulation of plan, coordination, optimization and control organically to be combined, on the basis of network model so being referred to as in foreign countries
For network planning technique.
The U.S. is applied to the development of establishment Polaris missile in the PERT (programme evaluation and review technique) of invention in 1956 at that time
Plan, has coordinated 3,000 many enterprises, and making plan, two years ahead completes on schedule；It is applied to cost 400 again later
More hundred million dollars, mobilize manpower more than 40 ten thousand Apollo space program management and control, obtain good result.
It is counted according to kremlin, the construction and erection enterprises of application network planning technique, the duration can shorten 20%, engineering
Cost can reduce by 10% or so.
In March, 1978, civil engineering association, U.S. proceedings comment on that this method is current only planning management newly side
Method, and in foreseeable future, it is not in the new method of one kind to substitute it, therefore, we should enjoy it, make
With it, improve it.
Currently, each advanced industrial country, such as the United States, Russia, English, day, method, moral in the world, is all promoting and applying network planning skill
Art.
The famous mathematician Hua Luogeng professor in China, from the national conditions in China, absorbing, external network planning technique is theoretical
On the basis of, " critical path method " scientific system is established, and since eighties of last century early sixties, promote in production practice
Using achieving huge economic benefit.
Since network planning technique is there are following many defects and deficiency, influences and restrict pushing away for network planning technique
Row is promoted, popularization and application:
(1) restriction and planar network of project or taskings management and target control plannet model rule are established
The restriction of model tormulation mode manages most projects or taskings and is unable to complete with target control person, especially compared with
Big or more complex project；
(2) it is unfavorable for the restriction of computer technology application, the application of such technology depends on the support of computer technology, net
Foundation, modification, the calculating of time parameter, the optimal control of constructing aims and optimal control of resource object of network model etc., only
It is difficult to complete by manpower；
(3) restriction of application range, CPM are only applicable to type project or task certainly and are directly decomposed into a series of specific works
Organization and administration and target control；PERT is only applicable to the evaluation of non-type project or task milestone target certainly；And with section
Comprehensive fast development of technology, not only most projects or task have the feature of mixed type, and method for organizing also has
There is the feature of mixed type；
(4) lack necessary function technology, major function technology only has: time-cost trade-off technology；Duration is constant, money
Source demand balance optimizing technology；Resource is limited, duration most short optimisation technique；With non-type project or task milestone target certainly
Evaluation technology；
(5) all there is apparent defect and deficiency in major function technology, such as:
1) it time-cost trade-off technology: needs to carry out time parameter meter by the route that key job forms to each respectively
After calculation, critical circuits can be just judged, need to calculate the rate of each single item key job, just can be carried out the excellent of duration-cost
Change, this be in practical work it is highly difficult, it is even impossible；
2) duration is constant, resources balance optimisation technique: its optimization method does not consider non-key work in part (or motor-driven)
Resource requirement current intelligence in time difference range, hence it is evident that unreasonable；
3) resource is limited, duration shortest optimisation technique: the work started before the period will be optimized and come most important first place,
Do not consider influence size of the optimization of the non-key work started before the optimization period to the duration；
4) Evaluation technology of non-type project or task milestone target certainly, when not considering non-key milestone target interval
Between Lagi-jInfluence etc. to estimate variance.
Network planning technique belongs to critical path method, is one of application technology of critical path method；It may be said that network planning technique is system
Method is raised, not vice versa.
All kinds of project organic managements and target control multistage system of planning reviewing method are critical path method project organic managements with
One of the target control of target control technology, embodiment is better realizes pointed by Hua Luogeng professor: critical path method is applied,
The time is wanted to key job, the purpose of benefit is wanted to non-key work.
Traditional network planning technique, without project organic management and target control multistage system of planning reviewing method.
The project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning that we formulate and establish pass through ability conduct after evaluation
The foundation of project organic management and target control.
Summary of the invention
Foundation of the present invention: project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning it is at different levels, it is each organization and administration with target control
The time parameter and estimate variance calculated result for making plan, carry out project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning is each
Grade, each evaluation organized with target control plan.
For the present invention by project or task by organization and administration and target control requirement, " work " decomposed is divided into type certainly
" work " and non-type " work " two types certainly:
(1) certainly type " work ": completing time t required for " work "i(or Ti) it is affirmative；
(2) non-affirmative type " work ": the time needed for completing " work " is non-affirmative, need to be carried out using three point estimations
Complete the estimation of " work " time:
1)aT、mT、bT, DT=(aT+4mT+bT) ÷ 6, σT 2=[(bT-aT)÷6]2
2)at、mt、bt, Dt=(at+4mt+bt) ÷ 6, σt 2=[(bt-at)÷6]2
aT、atOptimistic completion " work " time；
mT、mtPossible completion " work " time；
bT、btPessimistic completion " work " time；
DT、DtThe weighted average of " work " time is completed in estimation；
σT 2、σt 2Complete the estimated bias of " work " time.
The present invention is decomposed the type of " work " by project, and project is divided into type, non-type certainly and three kinds of mixed type certainly
Type:
(1) affirmative type project: by organization and administration and target control requirement, " work " decomposed all is affirmative type " work
Make "；
(2) non-type project certainly: by organization and administration and target control requirement, " work " decomposed all is non-type certainly
" work "；
(3) mixed type project: by organization and administration and target control requirement, " the work of the existing type certainly of " work " decomposed
Make ", and have the work of non-type certainly.
Project of the present invention decomposes the organizational form between " work " and organizer by organization and administration and target control requirement
Method has following seven kinds:
Project is by organization and administration and target control requirement, the organizational form and method for organizing between " work " decomposed,
By taking i " work " and j " work " as an example, i " work " be j " work " it is tight before " work " or j " work " be the next of i " work "
" work ", organizational form and method for organizing between i " work " and j " work ":
(1) FYS (LT): i " work " terminates LT days, and j " work " starts；
(2)STS(LTi): i " work " starts LTiIt, j " work " starts；
(3)FTF(LTj): i " work " terminates LTjIt, j " work " terminates；
(4)STF(LTi, LTj): i " work " starts LTiIt, use LT againjIt, j " work " terminates, i.e. j " work " will be in i
" work " starts LTiAfter it, LT is usedjIt terminates；
(5) STS and FTF (LTi, LTj): i " work " starts LTiIt, j " work " start, i " work " end LTjIt, j
" work " terminates；
(6) STS and STF (LTi, LTi’, LTj): i " work " starts LTi days, j " work " beginning, and i " work " starts LTi ‘It, use LT againjIt, j " work " terminates, i.e. j " work " will start LT in i " work "i’After it, LT is usedjIt terminates；
(7) FTS and STF (LT, LTi, LTj): i " work " terminates LT days, j " work " beginning, and i " work " starts LTiIt,
LT is used againjIt, j " work " terminates, i.e. j " work " will start LT in i " work "iAfter it, LT is usedjIt terminates.
Organization and administration between " work " are divided into type certainly and non-two type of type certainly with target control mode by the present invention
Type:
(1) type organizes and target control mode certainly: away from the organization and administration for being all affirmative when bonding relation and overlap joint
With target control mode；
(2) the non-organization and administration of type certainly are with target control mode: bonding relation is affirmative；But away from being non-affirmative when overlapping
, need to using three point estimations be overlapped when away from estimation:
a.LTa、LTm、LTb, DLT=(LTa+4LTm+LTb) ÷ 6, σLT 2=[(LTb-LTa)÷6]2
b.LTia、LTim、LTib, DiLT=(LTia+4LTim+LTib) ÷ 6, σiLT 2=[(LTib-LTia)÷6]2
c.LTja、LTjm、LTjb, DjLT=(LTja+4LTjm+LTjb) ÷ 6, σjLT 2=[(LTjb-LTja)÷6]2
d.LTI ' a、LTI ' m、LTI ' b, DI ' LT=(LTI ' a+4LTI ' m+LTI ' b) ÷ 6, σI ' LT 2=[(LTI ' b-LTI ' a)÷6]2
The present invention presses the difference of project organic management and target control mode, by project organic management and target control mode
It is divided into type, non-type and mixed type three types certainly certainly:
(1) type project organic management and target control mode certainly: project decompose organization and administration between " work " and
Target control mode is all the organization and administration and target control mode of type certainly；
(2) non-type project organic management and target control mode certainly: project decomposes the organization and administration between " work "
It is all the organization and administration and target control mode of non-type certainly with target control mode；
(3) mixed type project organic management and target control mode: project decompose organization and administration between " work " with
Target control mode, existing type certainly, also there are the organization and administration and target control mode of non-type certainly.
Mesh organization and administration of the present invention are divided into three classes with target control plan:
(1) type project organic management and target control plan certainly: type project certainly, using type organization and administration and mesh certainly
Mark project organic management and the target control plan of control mode and method；
(2) non-type project organic management and target control plan certainly, include the following three types:
1) affirmative type project, project organic management and target control using the non-organization and administration of type certainly with target control mode
System plan；
2) non-type project certainly, project organic management and target control using type organization and administration certainly with target control mode
System plan；
3) non-type project certainly, using the project organic management and target of non-type certainly organization and administration and target control mode
Control plan；
(3) mix mode project organic management and target control plan, including following five kinds:
1) mix mode project, project organic management and target control using type organization and administration certainly with target control mode
Plan；
2) mixed type project, project organic management and target control using the non-organization and administration of type certainly with target control mode
System plan；
3) mixed type project, project organic management and target control using mixed type organization and administration with target control mode
Plan；
4) non-type project certainly, project organic management and target control using mixed type organization and administration with target control mode
System plan；
5) affirmative type project, project organic management and target control using mixed type organization and administration with target control mode
Plan.
Sub-item, individual event mesh, work three-level is pressed step by step with project below to decompose, it is at different levels to formulate organization and administration and target respectively
Control plan, the project organic management of foundation and the target control multistage system of planning, the duration is constant, needs the equilibrium to be with resource
For the optimization of target, the present invention will be described.
The method for building up of project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, as shown in the table:
The present invention by organization and administration with target control requirements, using duration control method step by step formulate organizations at different levels management and
Target control plan, the project organic management of foundation and the target control multistage system of planning, as shown in the table:
(1) organization and administration of project level-one and target control plan system, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project level-one organization and administration and target control plan, the requirement of Yao Fuhe contract or predetermined duration.
(2) organization and administration of one of project second level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project second level organization and administration and target control plan, by level-one organization and administration and target control plan
In corresponding sub-item duration control.
(3) organization and administration of one of project three-level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project three levels of organization management and target control plan, by second level organization and administration and target control plan
In, corresponding individual event purpose duration control.
The present invention is by organization and administration and target control requirement, using reversely duration control method formulates organizations at different levels' pipe step by step
Reason and target control plan, the project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning of foundation are as shown in the table:
(1) organization and administration of project level-one and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project level-one organization and administration and target control plan, the requirement of Yao Fuhe contract or predetermined duration.
(2) organization and administration of one of project second level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project second level each sub-item organization and administration and target control plan, as level-one organization and administration and mesh
Mark the duration of corresponding sub-item in control plan.
(3) organization and administration of one of project three-level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project three-level each single project organic management and target control plan, as second level organization and administration and mesh
It marks in control plan, the corresponding individual event purpose duration.
The present invention by organization and administration with target control requirements, using step by step with reversely step by step duration control method formulation it is at different levels
Organization and administration and target control plan, the project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning of foundation；With I and II group
Management and target control plan is knitted to control using the duration step by step, two, three levels of organization's management and target control plan using reversely by
It is as shown in the table for the control of grade duration:
(1) organization and administration of project level-one and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project level-one organization and administration and target control plan, the requirement of Yao Fuhe contract or predetermined duration.
(2) organization and administration of one of project second level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project second level organization and administration and target control plan, by level-one organization and administration and target control plan
In corresponding sub-item duration control.
(3) organization and administration of one of project three-level and target control plan, as shown in the table:
The target duration of project three-level each single project organic management and target control plan, as second level organization and administration and mesh
It marks in control plan, the corresponding individual event purpose duration.
Wherein:
(1) affirmative type sub-item, individual event mesh: aT=mT=bT=DT=T；σT 2=0；
(2) type work certainly: at=mt=bt=Dt=t；σt 2=0；
(3) certainly type overlap joint when away from:
1)LTa=LTm=LTb=DLT=LT, σLT 2=0；
2)LTia=LTim=LTib=DiLT=LTi, σiLT 2=0；
3)LTja=LTjm=LTjb=DjLT=LTj, σjLT 2=0；
4)LTI ' a=LTI ' m=LTI ' b=DI ' LT=LTI ', σI ' LT 2=0.
According in the above project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, at different levels, each organization and administration and target control
System plan completes the formulation and project organic management and target of organizations at different levels' management with target control plan by following steps
Control the foundation of the multistage system of planning:
(1) conversion for carrying out organizational logical relationship between " work ", such as by project organic management and target control plan system
What the person of determining determined: B " work " it is tight before " work " be A " work ", be converted into next " work " of A " work " as B " work "；
Or next " work " of A " work " be B " work ", be converted into B " work " it is tight before " work " be A " work "；
(2) arrangement of organizational logical relationship is carried out
(3) inspection and supplement of job engineering logical relation defect: in main " work " list every " work ", ST is removed
Outside, it must be determined that before having tightly " work ", including FIN；In addition to FIN, it must be determined that have next " work ", including ST；It is not any
" work " it is tight before " work " " work ", be FIN it is tight before " work "；It is not " the work of next " work " of any " work "
Make ", it is next " work " of ST；Determine it is tight before " work " or (and) do not determine " work " of next " work ", as
There are " work " of tissue defects, should by organizational logical relationship, supplement its it is tight before " work " or (and) next " work "；
(4) in main " work " list " work " tissue sequence sequence: by ST successively are as follows: with ST for before tightly
" work " of " work "；With ordering " work " be it is tight before " work " " work "；……；Until FIN；By FIN according to
It is secondary are as follows: to take FIN as " work " of next " work "；It take ordering " work " as " work " of next " work "；……；Directly
To ST；
(5) inspection and modification of job engineering logical relation defect and mistake: suitable by tight preceding tissue sequence and next tissue
In sequence sequencer procedure, fails " work " of completing sequence, as there is " work " of organizational logical relationship defect or mistake, answer
It is supplemented or is modified by organizational logical relationship.
The present invention is at different levels, each organization and administration are as follows with the time parameter calculation method of target control plan:
(1) time that " work " may start earliest
(2) time that " work " may terminate earliest
(3) interval time between " work "
(4) motor-driven (part) time difference to work: FFi=min (Lagi-j)；
(5) total time difference to work: TFi=min (TFj+Lagi-j)；
(6) it works the time that must start at the latest: LSi=ESi+TFi；
(7) it works the time that must terminate at the latest: LFi=EFi+TFi。
The present invention is at different levels, each organization and administration are as follows with the estimate variance calculation method of target control plan:
The present invention is after the completion of at different levels, each organization and administration are calculated with target control planned time parameter, by every main " work
Make " influence of the deadline estimated bias to next " work " implementation process, carry out deviations2Adjustment after, carry out its estimation
The calculating of variance.
For " work " (i.e. the discontinuous " work ") of discontinuous completion, the time Estimate deviation that " works " is completed
Adjustment；
The method of adjustment of every main " work " estimation " work " deadline deviation:
Note:
(1)*σi 2- it is σ adjustedi 2；
(2)σi 2The variance of-estimated time to completion the deviation for being main " work " i: σi 2=[(bit-ait)÷6]2, in which:
1)bitPessimism (longest) value of-estimated time to completion for being main " work " i；
2)aitOptimism (most short) value of-estimated time to completion for being main " work " i；
(3)DitThe weighted average of-the estimated time to completion for being main " work " i: Dit=(ait+4mit+bit) ÷ 6, in which:
1)mitMost probable (time) value of-estimated time to completion for being main " work " i；
(4)DitThe limit value of the estimated time to completion of main " work " i of '-be,
By Parameters of Normal DistributionWork as λiWhen >=3.5, P (Dit') ≈ 100%, so
It is organizing with target control in the works, the estimated bias of main " work " deadline, to next " work "
Influence, away from (EF when considering actually to overlapi-ESj) influence, i.e., by when practical overlap joint away from adjustment to the shadow of next " work "
It rings；
Temporal duration estimate variance is mainly overlapped between " work ", to next " work " influence value υ2 j(LT)Calculation method, under
Shown in table:
Project organic management in the works, every " work " organization arrangement (when overlap joint away from) estimate variance (υj(LT)Take following calculating
As a result maximum value)
" work " will consider in organization and administration and the estimate variance of target control in the works, influence to next " work "
Interval time (Lag between " work "i-j) influence factor, be as follows:
Every main " work " adds up estimated time to completion deviation variance υ2 j(t)Calculation method:
Note:
(1)EFi'-for main " work " i is because estimation work deadline estimated bias influences, the time that can be completed at the latest,
By Parameters of Normal Distribution λi=λiWhen >=3.5, P(iEF’)≈ 100%, so
(2) project organic management and target control in the works, the variance of every main " work " estimated time to completion deviation by
Two parts composition: i.e. υ2 j(t)(do not include*σj 2) and*σj 2；υ2 i(t)It also include two parts, i.e. υ2 i(t)With*σi 2For j's " work "
It influences；υ2 j(t)(do not include*σj 2The estimate variance of)-be j attack time；υ2 i(t)(do not include*σi 2)-start for i work
The estimate variance of time.
The project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, time parameter and estimation side that duration control is established step by step
The calculation method of difference:
(1) level-one respectively organize with target control plan, the calculating of time parameter:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi；
(2) second level respectively organize with target control plan, the calculating of time parameter:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi；
Note: level-one organization and administration with target control in the works, the duration of sub-item, be second level sub-item organization and administration with
The target duration of target control plan；
(3) three-level respectively organize with target control plan, the calculating of time parameter and estimate variance:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi、υi 2；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi；
Note: the individual event purpose duration in second level tissue governing plan, for the target work of three-level individual event purpose organization and administration plan
Phase；
(4) second level respectively organizes the calculating of governing plan estimate variance: when organizing plan completion with three-level individual event purpose
Between estimate variance, as in second level tissue governing plan, the estimate variance of single project duration, calculate each sub-item of second level
Organize the υ of plani 2；
(5) level-one organization and administration with target control plan, the calculating of estimate variance: with the organization and administration of second level sub-item with
Target control plan, the estimate variance of deadline, as level-one organization and administration with target control in the works, the sub-item duration
Estimate variance, first order calculation organization and administration and the υ of target control plani 2。
The project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, time parameter and pass that reversely duration control is established step by step
The calculation method of key variance:
(1) three-level respectively organize with target control plan, the calculating of time parameter and estimate variance:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi、υi 2；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi；
(2) second level respectively organizes and target control plan, the calculating of time parameter and estimate variance: each with three-level respectively
The organization and administration of individual event purpose and the duration of target control plan and the estimate variance of duration, as second level organization and administration and target
In control plan, the estimate variance of each individual event purpose duration and duration:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi、υi 2；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi；
(3) level-one organization and administration are with target control plan, the calculating of time parameter and estimate variance: respectively with each point of second level
The organization and administration of project and the duration of target control plan and the estimate variance of duration, as level-one organization and administration and target control
System in the works, the estimate variance of the duration of each sub-item and duration:
1) the project organic management plan to tight preceding organizational logical relationship expression, calculates ESi、EFi、υi 2；
2) to the project organic management of next organizational logical relationship expression and target control plan, Lag is calculatedi-jAfterwards, really
Determine FFi, then calculate TFi、LSiAnd LFi。
The estimate variance of organizations at different levels management and target control plan:
(1) sub-item is in level-one organization and administration and target control ES in the worksiEstimate variance, for second level organization and administration with
Target control is in the works, sub-item organizes and the estimate variance of target control planned start time；
(2) individual event mesh is in second level organization and administration and target control ES in the worksiEstimate variance, for three levels of organization management with
Target control in the works, the estimate variance of single project organic management and target control planned start time；
(3) three levels of organization manage with target control in the works, when the organization and administration of individual event purpose are completed with target control plan
Between estimate variance, for second level organization and administration with target control in the works, the estimate variance of single project's finish time；
(4) second level is organized with target control in the works, when the organization and administration and target control plan of sub-item are completed
Between estimate variance, for level-one organization and administration with target control in the works, the estimate variance of sub-item deadline.
The resource requirement of " work " unit time, is the main resource considered when a kind of optimization of selection, for being not required to
" work " of this resource is wanted, resource requirement is set as zero；
The resource requirement of individual event mesh unit time, is equal to single project organic management and target control plan, resource need
The summation of amount is divided by the individual event purpose duration；Equally, the resource requirement of sub-item unit time is equal to sub-item and organizes
With target control plan, resource requirement summation divided by sub-item duration.
The present invention provides one kind: each intermediate item is using decomposition step by step, the affirmative type at different levels formulated respectively, non-type certainly or mixes
Mould assembly organization and administration and target control plan, the project organic management of foundation and the evaluation side of the target control multistage system of planning
Method, this method at different levels, each organization and administration and target control plan according to project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning
Time parameter and estimate variance calculated result, carry out project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning be at different levels, each group
Knit the evaluation of management Yu target control plan, main includes following evaluation content: (1) the target duration of the multistage system of planning, estimate
Count the system of planning duration that variance, the probability of realization and probability are 100%；(2) at different levels, each organization and administration and target control
The time that may start earliest that time, estimate variance, probability and the probability that plan may start earliest are 100%；(3)
The duration that duration, estimate variance, probability and the probability of at different levels, each organization and administration and target control plan are 100%；(4) each
Grade, each organization and administration and the target control time that work in every may start earliest in the works, estimate variance, probability, and it is general
The time etc. that may start earliest that rate is 100%, the evaluation as project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning
Foundation.
Present invention determine that project organic management and target control multistage system of planning target duration method:
(1) enable: the contract of project or predetermined duration are T；The mesh of project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning
The mark duration is T0；
(2) (operation) number of days that effectively works in time limit for contract adjustment:
1) time limit for contract inner circumferential stops day and festivals or holidays number of days: T1=(T ÷ 365) × t1, t1- 1 year inner circumferential stops day and section is false
Day number of days；
2) weather (such as winter, rainy season and strong wind) influences work (operation) number of days: T2=[(T-T1)÷365]×t2, t2—1
Work (operation) number of days of year internal cause climatic effect；
3) environmental condition (such as manpower, mechanical equipment, material, water, electricity, communications and transportation) target time limit modification COEFFICIENT K1,
It can satisfy normal tissue management and target control requirement, take K1=1, otherwise K1< 1, such as desirable K1=0.85~1；
4) project complexity (such as structure, geological conditions complexity) target time limit modification COEFFICIENT K2, structure is simple,
Geological conditions is good, takes K2=1, otherwise K2< 1, such as desirable K2=0.9~1；
5) project significance level etc., target time limit modification COEFFICIENT K3, general data takes K3=1, more special or big event K3
< 1, such as desirable K3=0.9~1；
6) then: the target duration of project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning are as follows: T0=(T-T1-T2)×min
|K1K2K3|。
Project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, level-one organization and administration and target control plan and at different levels
Begin to organize the evaluation with target control plan:
It is as shown in the table according to the evaluation of organization and administration and target control plan every " work ":
(1) A " work " presses tiThe estimated bias of completion is σi 2, press tiThe probability of completion is Pti, longest complete needed for time be
100%Pti；
(2) A " work " is being organized with target control in the works, by ESiEstimate variance be υi 2, press ESiProbability be
PESi, at the latest time for starting be 100%PESi；
The evaluation of organization and administration and target control plan:
The duration of organization and administration and target control plan: time started ESST, end time ESFIN, by ESFINWhat is terminated estimates
Meter variance is υ2 FIN, press ESFINThe probability of end is P (ESFIN), realization probability be 100%P (ESFIN) end time；
Project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning, except level-one organization and administration and target control plan with it is at different levels
Other than starting organization and administration and target control plan, the evaluation of at different levels, each organization and administration and target control plan:
According to organization and administration and target control plan, the evaluation of every " work " is as shown in the table:
(1) A " work " presses tiThe estimated bias of completion is σi 2, press tiThe probability of completion is Pti, longest complete needed for time be
100%Pti；
(2) A " work " is in organization and administration and target control scheme, by ESiEstimate variance be υi 2, press ESiProbability be
PESi, probability be 100% ESiFor 100%PESi；
The evaluation of organization and administration and target control plan:
The duration of organization and administration and target control plan: time started ESST, press ESSTThe estimate variance of beginning is υST 2, press
ESSTThe probability of beginning is PESST, probability be 100% at the beginning of be 100%PESST；End time is ESFIN, by ESFIN
The estimate variance of end is υ2 FIN, press ESFINThe probability of end is P (ESFIN), probability be 100% end time be 100%P
(ESFIN)。
Claims (10)
1. a kind of all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of critical path method, it is characterised in that: realizing one kind can fill
Divide Applied Computer Techniques, carry out each intermediate item and use decomposition step by step, the organization and administration of formulation respectively at different levels and target control plan,
The complete scheme for establishing project organic management and the evaluation of the target control multistage system of planning, is realized by following steps:
Below by taking project is decomposed using sub-item step by step, individual event mesh and specific works three-level as an example, by formulating at different levels, each tissue
Management and target control plan, establish the reviewing method of project organic management Yu the target control system of planning, to tool of the invention
Body method is illustrated:
Level of decomposition formulates the level-one organization and administration plan of project, i.e. project organic management and target control plan；
Second level is decomposed, and formulates the second level tissue governing plan of project respectively, i.e., each sub-item organization and administration and target control plan；
Three-level is decomposed, and formulates three levels of organization's governing plan of project respectively, i.e., each single project organic management and target control plan；
At different levels, each organization and administration and target control plan are formulated by the above process, establish project organic management and target control is more
The grade system of planning；
Contract or the determination of predetermined duration, project organic management and target control multistage system of planning target duration according to project
Method, project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning:
The evaluation of project organic management determined by step (1) and target control multistage system of planning target duration；
Step (2) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning level-one and target control planned target work
The evaluation of phase；
Step (3) project organic management and target control multistage system of planning level-one organize and each point in the works of target control
The evaluation that project is started by the earliest possible time started；
Step (4) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning second level and target control each group in the works
Knit the evaluation of management Yu target control plan；
Step (5) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning second level and target control plan, each group
Knit management and the target control evaluation that each individual event mesh is started by the earliest possible time started in the works；
Step (6) project organic management and the management of target control multistage system of planning three levels of organization and target control each group in the works
Knit the evaluation of management Yu target control plan；
Step (7) project organic management and the management of target control multistage system of planning three levels of organization and target control plan, each group
Knit management and the target control evaluation that work in every is started by the earliest possible time started in the works.
2. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
The estimate variance of three-level each single project organic management and target control plan time, as second level organization and administration and target control meter
The estimated bias of corresponding single project duration in drawing；The estimation side point of second level each sub-item organization and administration and target control plan time
Difference, the estimated bias as level-one organization and administration and target control corresponding sub-item duration in the works.
3. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
The estimate variance of level-one organization and administration and target control each sub-item time started in the works, for second level organization and administration and target control
Corresponding sub-item organization and administration and the estimation side point of target control planned start time are poor in the works for system；Second level organization and administration and mesh
The estimate variance of each individual event mesh time started in control plan is marked, for three levels of organization's management and target control corresponding individual event in the works
Mesh organization and administration and the estimation side point of target control planned start time are poor.
4. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
The evaluation of project organic management and target control multistage system of planning target duration determined by the step (1), comprising:
(1) the target duration of contract or predetermined duration, project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning；Contract is predetermined
Duration subtracts the time (number of days) of the target duration of project organic management and the target control multistage system of planning；
(2) consider the noncontinuity time (number of days) of project organic management and target control multistage system of planning implementation procedure；
(3) consider project complexity factor, influence the time of project organic management Yu target control multistage system of planning duration
(number of days)；
(4) consider the time (day of influence finished item organization and administration and the condition element of target control multistage system of planning task
Number).
5. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
Step (2) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning level-one and target control planned target work
The evaluation of phase, comprising:
(1) estimate variance of level-one organization and administration and target control plan time；
(2) probability that level-one organization and administration are realized with target control plan time；
(3) duration of probability is 100% level-one organization and administration and target control plan.
6. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
Step (3) project organic management and target control multistage system of planning level-one organize and each point in the works of target control
The evaluation that project is started by the earliest possible time started, comprising:
(1) level-one organization and administration and the target control estimate variance that each sub-item is started by the earliest possible time started in the works；
(2) level-one organization and administration and the target control probability that each sub-item is started by the earliest possible time started in the works；
(3) level-one organization and administration with target control in the works each sub-item probability be 100% at the beginning of.
7. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
Step (4) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning second level and target control each group in the works
Knit the evaluation of management Yu target control plan, comprising:
(1) second level respectively organizes and the estimate variance of target control plan time；
(2) second level respectively organizes the probability realized with target control plan time；
(3) second level that probability is 100% respectively organizes and the duration of target control plan.
8. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
Step (5) project organic management and the organization and administration of target control multistage system of planning second level and target control plan, each group
Knit management and the target control evaluation that each individual event mesh is started by the earliest possible time started in the works, comprising:
(1) second level respectively organizes and the target control estimation side that each individual event mesh is started by the earliest possible time started in the works
Difference；
(2) second level respectively organizes and the target control probability that each individual event mesh is started by the earliest possible time started in the works；
(3) second level respectively organize with target control in the works each individual event mesh probability be 100% at the beginning of.
9. all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of a kind of critical path method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
Step (6) project organic management and the management of target control multistage system of planning three levels of organization and target control each group in the works
Knit the evaluation of management Yu target control plan, comprising:
(1) three-level respectively organizes and the estimate variance of target control plan time；
(2) three-level respectively organizes the probability realized with target control plan time；
(3) three-level that probability is 100% respectively organizes and the duration of target control plan.
10. a kind of all kinds of project organization multistage system of planning reviewing methods of critical path method, feature exist according to claim 1
In: step (7) project organic management and target control multistage system of planning three levels of organization manage with target control plan, respectively
Organization and administration and the target control evaluation that work in every is started by the earliest possible time started in the works, comprising:
(1) three-level respectively organizes and the target control estimation side that work in every is started by the earliest possible time started in the works
Difference；
(2) three-level respectively organizes and the target control probability that work in every is started by the earliest possible time started in the works；
(3) three-level respectively organize with target control in the works work in every probability be 100% at the beginning of.
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