CN105787677A - Petrochemical port area accident risk area quantitative assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a petrochemical port area accident risk area quantitative assessment method comprising the following steps: (1) putting forward a petrochemical port area accident integrated risk area quantitative assessment mode; (2) building an improved accident probability calculation model based on an accident domino effect; (3) building an improved consequence intensity calculation model based on uncertainty analysis; and (4) getting the formation mechanism and the overall distribution characteristics of accident risk in a petrochemical port area according to the corrected accident integrated risk area quantitative assessment mode, the improved accident probability calculation model and the improved consequence intensity calculation model, and putting forward petrochemical port area accident risk control measures. By employing the method of the invention, the accuracy of accident probability calculation and consequence simulation is improved, and the guiding significance of risk assessment to risk prevention and control is enhanced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of appraisal procedure, be specifically related to a kind of petrochemical industry port district accident risk region quantitative evaluating method.
Background technology
Petrochemical industry port district, refers to the handling of petrochemical industry product and the port area of storage Relatively centralized, is one of the risk prevention system emphasis of the Changjiang river petrochemical industry product storing and transporting security.In recent years, along with a large amount of petrochemical industry product Transportation Enterprises are along the Changjiang river centralized layout, the Transportation of Dangerous Chemicals amount of Changjiang River Trunk Line increases sharply with the speedup of average annual 10%, and the accident risk prevention and control in petrochemical industry port district are brought severe challenge.
Developed countries extensively carries out region accident risk qualitative assessment research, and is applied to multiple fields such as risk management, emergency management and rescue, Land_use change safety program.Due to computationally intensive, the calculating process complexity of region accident risk qualitative assessment, professional software generally can be adopted.China's region accident risk qualitative assessment research starting is relatively later.Wu ancestor took the lead in have employed Regional Risk quantitative evaluating method in Urban Dangers safety program is studied equal to 2006, using individual risk and social risk as risk indicator parameter, it is achieved Regional Risk superposition；Then, some scholars have inquired into the application in China chemical industrial park of the Regional Risk quantitative evaluating method and improvement successively.Chinese scholars conducts a research mainly around the evaluation profile that region accident risk is quantitative.Owing to accident risk is mainly determined by accident probability and consequence intensity, some scholars also inquires into the computational methods of the two.
Existing research often carries out risk assessment model study for " chemical industrial park ", does not suggest that the evaluation profile for " petrochemical industry port district " own characteristic.In the prediction process to damage sequence, researcher is often just for one or several specific accident scene, and ignores other possible accident scene, there is very big cognitive uncertainty, causes the imperfection of Risk Results.In damage sequence strength simulation process, cognitive uncertainty often shows as a lot of risk variable cannot with certain single numeric representation, and the probabilistic sign of variable often becomes research key point.Existing research has been done some in this respect and has been attempted, but is more heavily weighted toward air, water body diffusion model aspect that leakage accident is caused, and the risk variable uncertainty characterization research for the consequence forecast model such as fire, blast also lacks relatively.
Summary of the invention
Brief overview about the present invention given below, in order to the basic comprehension about certain aspects of the invention is provided.Should be appreciated that this general introduction is not that the exhaustive about the present invention is summarized.It is not intended to determine the key of the present invention or pith, and nor is it intended to limit the scope of the present invention.It is only intended to and provides some concept in simplified form, in this, as the preamble in greater detail discussed after a while.
The purpose of the embodiment of the present invention is the defect for above-mentioned prior art, it is provided that the petrochemical industry port district accident risk region quantitative evaluating method of a kind of accuracy improving calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable and Consequence Simulation.
To achieve these goals, the present invention adopts the technical scheme that:
A kind of petrochemical industry port district accident risk region quantitative evaluating method, comprises the following steps:
(1) accident integrated risk region, petrochemical industry port district qualitative assessment pattern is proposed；
(2) the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model improved is set up based on accident Domino effect；
(3) the consequence strength model improved is set up based on uncertainty analysis；
(4) formation mechenism and the holistic distribution characteristics of petrochemical industry port district accident risk are obtained according to the accident integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern revised, the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model of improvement and the consequence strength model of improvement, it is proposed to the control measure of petrochemical industry port district accident risk.
Described step (1) including:
A) identification main hazard source
For self-contained unit, adopt and select numerical value S to identify main assessment of risks object；Computing formula is as follows:
In formula: L is that device arrives the distance considering location point, minimum for 100m；A weighs the instruction parameter that device is inherent disastrous, and T, F, E represent toxicant, combustible material and explosive substance respectively；
The specific formula for calculation of instruction parameter A is as follows:
In formula, Q is the quantity (kg) of chemicals in device；O1It it is the parameter characterizing storage device or process apparatus；O2It it is the parameter of characterization apparatus position；O3It is characterize the parameter of gaseous substance quantity after chemicals discharges；G is the ultimate value characterizing physical hazard characteristic；
B) qualitative assessment region security risk
Adopt individual risk (IR) and social risk (FN) carry out quantification area security risk as risk indicator；The computing formula of the individual risk that certain mesh point is total is as follows:
In formula, fsIt it is the probability of happening of event S；PMIt it is the probability of Meteorological Grade M；It it is wind directionProbability；PiIt it is the conditional probability of ignition event i；PdIt it is mesh point probability of death.
Social risk FNComputing formula as follows:
In formula, FdIt is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionCalculated coefficient of destruction when ignition event i；NcellIt it is the size of population in grid；It is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionThe death toll that when ignition event i, all grids are total；FNIt is causeThe cumulative frequency of all events more than or equal to N；
C) introduce environmental risk assessment index, set up integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern
Hydrodynamic model and water quality model is selected to carry out water pollution simulation；In conjunction with accident leakage Probability estimate accidents happened environmental risk, by the Mathematical treatment of cartesian grid method He " risk principle of stacking ", by itself and security risk estimation process matching, set up the region qualitative assessment pattern of accident integrated risk；
D) improve the quantization method of risk compensation coefficient, revise the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk
The penalty coefficient CP of existing Regional Risk value is made up of fire-fighting and rescue penalty coefficient FCP and medical aid penalty coefficient MCP two parts, and formula is as follows:
CP=FCP × MCP
Consider the active compensation effect to reducing damage sequence of society's emergency capability waterborne of the departments such as the emergency capability of petrochemical industry Transportation Enterprise self and maritime affairs on this basis, improve the definition of risk compensation, formula is converted into:
CP=WCP × LCP × CCP
In formula, WCP is society's water life-saving penalty coefficient；LCP is social land rescue penalty coefficient；CCP is enterprise self rescue penalty coefficient；
With reference to emergency management and rescue relevant regulations, and in conjunction with petrochemical industry port district emergency capability investigational data on the spot, it is determined that the concrete quantization method of above-mentioned penalty coefficient, improve the computational methods of risk compensation；Risk compensation coefficient is introduced the estimation mode proposed, and then revises the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk；Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
RR=NR × CP
In formula, NR is region inherent risk value；CP is penalty coefficient；RR is region practical risk value.
Described step (2) including:
A) identify and analyzed area domino accident topological relation
First the quadratic risk function accident of fire, the initiation of explosion accident Domino effect is filtered out；
Analyze the spread vector of each initial incident, and in conjunction with the Domino effect critical value standard of all kinds of spread vector, get final product the secondary target that initial option is possible；
Calculating the Extending probability of each secondary target, computing formula is as follows:
For heat radiation: Y=12.54-1.847ln (ttf)
For superpressure: Y=a+bln (Ps)
Wherein, Y is the Extending probability of initial incident；Ttf is the equipment failure time, and unit is s, and the equipment failure time depends on the volume of caloradiance and the target device acting on dissimilar target device；PsFor acting on the peak overpressure of target device, unit is kPa；A and b is the fitting coefficient corresponding with target device type, for instance for non-pressure vessel: a=-18.96；B=2.44；
Using quadratic risk function accident as initial incident, quadratic risk function accident identification flow process is adopted to identify tertiary air danger accident further；Same initial incident and its second accident, three accidents can constitute tree, form domino fault chains；If initial incidents multiple in region are considered simultaneously, then and then form region domino accident topological relation；
B) for fire, explosion accident, the probability calculation model improved is set up
The method adopting Monte Carlo stochastic sampling sets up probability calculation model for fire and explosion accident type, namely under abundant accident scene, each accident is repeatedly performed stochastic sampling, simulate the result of probability, secondary probability, three Probabilistic Synthesis effects, it is achieved the overall probability estimation of accident；
C) for leakage accident, the probability calculation model improved is set up
Based on the probability of fire or explosion accident with consider the overall probability after Domino effect, extrapolate the initiation probability of Domino effect；Assuming that the impact of secondary target fire or explosion accident probability is similar to by Domino effect is equal to its impact on secondary target leakage accident probability, in conjunction with leakage accident probability, derive the leakage accident probability of happening computation model of improvement, it is thus achieved that three kinds of accident patterns synchronize the probability calculation model improved.
Described fire incident type includes pond fire, jet bubble reactor, fireball, scintillation etc., and spread vector is mainly heat radiation and flame contact；Explosion accident type includes machinery blast, limited blast, steam cloud blast etc., and spread vector is mainly positive pressure of shock wave and fragment.
Described step (3) including:
A) risk variable is identified
For processes such as fire, blast, Atmospheric Diffusion, water body diffusions, it is considered to the open factor of model source code, it is determined that suitable consequence forecast model；
For each consequence forecast model, model of cognition needs the risk variable of input；
Risk variable is broadly divided into accident variable and meteorological variables；Accident variable mainly includes the key element of the sign accident characteristic such as leakage probability, leakage rate；Meteorological variables mainly includes the key element of the sign accident generation external conditions such as wind direction frequency, wind speed, temperature；
B) uncertainty of quantization signifying risk variable
The uncertainty of risk variable is characterized by corresponding probability density function；The probability density function of accident variable need to combine finding on the spot make mutually it will be assumed that；The probability density function of meteorological variables is obtained by weather data analysis over the years；For the feature of each risk variable, in conjunction with finding on the spot and calendar year statistics data, determine corresponding probability density function one by one, as the sample drawn of Monte Carlo Method；
C) the consequence strength model improved is set up
Adopt Monte Carlo Method, determine number realization N, utilizing random number stochastic sampling from the probability density function characterizing risk variable that computer automatically generates, obtain the N group input parameter set of Consequence Simulation prediction, each group of parameter set all represents certain special scenes；N group parameter set is inputted consequence forecast model, it is thus achieved that the probability density distribution of analog result and cumulative distribution function, as the important foundation of risk characterization.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
The petrochemical industry port district accident risk appraisal procedure of the present invention, accident risk region prevention and control for this kind of special function zones, district, petrochemical industry port riverine, coastal provide theoretical foundation, it is also possible to configure for petrochemical industry port region emergency capability, region security planning provides science to support with layout work.
It being mainly manifested in: 1) present invention proposes accident integrated risk region, the petrochemical industry port district qualitative assessment pattern that is of universal significance, it can be considered that the risk compensation of emergent rescue capability, under regional scale, realize unified quantitatively characterizing and the comprehensive and quantitative assessment of fail-safe risk and environmental risk；
2) by accident Domino effect and Uncertainty Analysis Method, the accuracy of calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable and Consequence Simulation is improved emphatically.
Accompanying drawing explanation
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, the accompanying drawing used required in embodiment or description of the prior art will be briefly described below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, under the premise not paying creative work, it is also possible to obtain other accompanying drawing according to these accompanying drawings.
The flow chart of the petrochemical industry port district accident risk region quantitative evaluating method that Fig. 1 provides for the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
For making the purpose of the embodiment of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly, below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, obviously, described embodiment is a part of embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.Can combine with the element shown in one or more other accompanying drawing or embodiment and feature at the element described in the accompanying drawing of the present invention or a kind of embodiment and feature.It should be noted that, for purposes of clarity, accompanying drawing and eliminate expression and the description of unrelated to the invention, parts known to persons of ordinary skill in the art and process in illustrating.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, the every other embodiment that those of ordinary skill in the art obtain under not paying creative work premise, broadly fall into the scope of protection of the invention.
Referring to Fig. 1, petrochemical industry port district accident risk region quantitative evaluating method, comprise the following steps:
1) accident integrated risk region, petrochemical industry port district qualitative assessment pattern is proposed
A, main hazard source identification
For self-contained unit, adopt and select numerical value S to identify main assessment of risks object.Computing formula is as follows:
In formula: L is that device arrives the distance considering location point, minimum for 100m；A weighs the instruction parameter that device is inherent disastrous, and T, F, E represent toxicant, combustible material and explosive substance respectively.The specific formula for calculation of instruction parameter A is as follows:
In formula, Q is the quantity (kg) of chemicals in device；O1It it is the parameter characterizing storage device or process apparatus；O2It it is the parameter of characterization apparatus position；O3It is characterize the parameter of gaseous substance quantity after chemicals discharges；G is the ultimate value characterizing physical hazard characteristic.
B, region security quantifying risk are assessed
Single dangerous matter sources is leaked, the probability of happening of fire and explosion accident and cause that the consequence intensity of individual injures and deaths realizes on the basis of qualitative assessment, Mathematical treatment by cartesian grid method He " risk principle of stacking ", and in conjunction with periphery population density and distribution situation, adopt individual risk (IR) and social risk (FN) carry out quantification area security risk as risk indicator.The computing formula of the individual risk that certain mesh point is total is as follows:
In formula, fsIt it is the probability of happening of event S；PMIt it is the probability of Meteorological Grade M；It it is wind directionProbability；PiIt it is the conditional probability of ignition event i；PdIt it is mesh point probability of death.
Social risk FNComputing formula as follows:
In formula, FdIt is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionCalculated coefficient of destruction when ignition event i；NcellIt it is the size of population in grid；It is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionThe death toll that when ignition event i, all grids are total；FNIt is causeThe cumulative frequency of all events more than or equal to N.
C, introducing environmental risk assessment index, set up integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern
Hydrodynamic model and water quality model is selected to carry out water pollution simulation；In order to the quantitatively characterizing index of environmental risk is unified with security risk, suitable econometrics method is selected to estimate the pollution loss of water body, and use value of life Evaluation Method that water pollution loss is further converted into individual death equivalent, thus realizing the unified quantitatively characterizing of security risk and environmental risk.Accident environmental risk can be estimated in conjunction with accident leakage probability, by the Mathematical treatment of cartesian grid method He " risk principle of stacking ", by itself and security risk estimation process matching, and then set up the region qualitative assessment pattern of accident integrated risk.
D, improve the quantization method of risk compensation coefficient, revise the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk
The penalty coefficient CP of existing Regional Risk value is made up of fire-fighting and rescue penalty coefficient FCP and medical aid penalty coefficient MCP two parts, and formula is as follows:
CP=FCP × MCP
This research will consider the active compensation effect to reducing damage sequence of society's emergency capability waterborne of the departments such as emergency capability and the maritime affairs of petrochemical industry Transportation Enterprise self on this basis, improves the definition of risk compensation, is converted into by formula:
CP=WCP × LCP × CCP
In formula, WCP is society's water life-saving penalty coefficient；LCP is social land rescue penalty coefficient；CCP is enterprise self rescue penalty coefficient.
With reference to China's emergency management and rescue relevant regulations, and in conjunction with petrochemical industry port district emergency capability investigational data on the spot, it is determined that the concrete quantization method of above-mentioned penalty coefficient, thus improving the computational methods of risk compensation.Risk compensation coefficient is introduced the estimation mode originally researched and proposed, and then revises the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk.Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
RR=NR × CP
In formula, NR is region inherent risk value；CP is penalty coefficient；RR is region practical risk value.
2) the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model improved is set up based on accident Domino effect
A, region domino accident topological relation identification and analysis
First filtering out the quadratic risk function accident of fire, the initiation of explosion accident Domino effect, fire incident type includes pond fire, jet bubble reactor, fireball, scintillation etc., and spread vector is mainly heat radiation and flame contact；Explosion accident type includes machinery blast, limited blast, steam cloud blast etc., and spread vector is mainly positive pressure of shock wave and fragment.
Identification process is: selects an initial incident and analyzes its spread vector, possible secondary target is selected by spread vector, calculate the Extending probability of each secondary target, determine whether other initial incidents, if repeating above-mentioned flow process, i.e. one initial incident of reselection analyze its spread vector, continues below scheme, if it is not, then be defined as second accident.
Specifically include: analyze the spread vector of each initial incident, and in conjunction with the Domino effect critical value standard of all kinds of spread vector, get final product the secondary target that initial option is possible.The Extending probability computing formula of secondary target is as follows:
For heat radiation: Y=12.54-1.847ln (ttf)
For superpressure: Y=a+bln (Ps)
Wherein, Y is the Extending probability of initial incident；Ttf is the equipment failure time, and unit is s, and it depends on the volume of caloradiance and the target device acting on dissimilar target device；PsFor acting on the peak overpressure of target device, unit is kPa；A and b is the fitting coefficient corresponding with target device type, for instance for non-pressure vessel: a=-18.96；B=2.44.
Using quadratic risk function accident as initial incident, above-mentioned flow process can be adopted to identify tertiary air danger accident further.Same initial incident and its second accident, three accidents can constitute tree, form domino fault chains；If initial incidents multiple in region are considered simultaneously, then and then form region domino accident topological relation.
B, for fire, explosion accident, set up the probability calculation model improved
This project considers that in regional extent, accident quantity is more, probability equation is complex, in order to comparatively accurate estimation comprises the overall probability of initial incident, second accident and three accidents, the method adopting Monte Carlo stochastic sampling is set up probability calculation model for fire and explosion accident type, namely under abundant accident scene, each accident is repeatedly performed stochastic sampling, simulate the result of probability, secondary probability, three Probabilistic Synthesis effects, it is achieved the overall probability estimation of accident.
C, for leakage accident, set up the probability calculation model improved
Based on the probability of fire or explosion accident with consider the overall probability after Domino effect, it is possible to extrapolate the initiation probability of Domino effect.Assuming that the impact of secondary target fire/explosion accident probability is similar to by Domino effect is equal to its impact on secondary target leakage accident probability, in conjunction with leakage accident probability, the leakage accident probability of happening computation model of improvement can be derived, and then obtain the probability calculation model that three kinds of accident patterns synchronize to improve.
3) the consequence strength model improved is set up based on uncertainty analysis
A, identification risk variable
For processes such as fire, blast, Atmospheric Diffusion, water body diffusions, it is considered to factors such as the openings of model source code, it is determined that suitable fire, blast or water body diffusion consequence strength model.For each consequence strength model, model of cognition needs the risk variable of input.Risk variable substantially can be divided into accident variable and meteorological variables.Accident variable mainly includes the key element of the sign accident characteristic such as leakage probability, leakage rate；Meteorological variables mainly includes the key element of the sign accident generation external conditions such as wind direction frequency, wind speed, temperature.All there is uncertainty in risk variable, can affect risk evaluation result to some extent.
B, quantization signifying risk variable uncertainty
The uncertainty of risk variable is characterized by corresponding probability density function.The probability density function of accident variable often cannot speculate from historical experience, it is necessary to combines finding on the spot and makes corresponding it is assumed that the value of moment leakage rate is obeyed certain and is evenly distributed as supposed；The probability density function of meteorological variables often can be obtained by weather data analysis over the years, as wind speed substantially conforms to normal distribution.For the feature of each risk variable, in conjunction with finding on the spot and calendar year statistics data, corresponding probability density function need to be determined one by one, as the sample drawn of Monte Carlo Method.
The consequence strength model that c, foundation improve
Adopt Monte Carlo Method, determine number realization N, utilizing random number stochastic sampling from the probability density function characterizing risk variable that computer automatically generates, obtain the N group input parameter set of Consequence Simulation prediction, each group of parameter set all represents certain special scenes.N group parameter set is input in the consequence strength model of fire, blast or water body diffusion, it is thus achieved that the probability density distribution of analog result and cumulative distribution function, as the important foundation of risk characterization.
4) formation mechenism and the holistic distribution characteristics of petrochemical industry port district accident risk are obtained according to the accident integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern revised, the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model of improvement and the consequence strength model of improvement, it is proposed to the control measure of petrochemical industry port district accident risk.Specifically include:
A) select typical case petrochemical industry port district, dangerous matter sources and emergency capability Develop Data are investigated
Consider the factors such as geological location, layout of port, petrochemical industry product transportation quantity and accumulating cargo type, select typical petrochemical industry port district as object of study.Visit on the spot according to literature survey, official statistics, enterprise and administration section, the mode such as expert interviewing, investigate this petrochemical industry port district's danger sources information and emergency capability situation.Answer the following information of emphasis investigation petrochemical industry product Transportation Enterprise: the annual throughput of 1. accumulating cargo type, annual throughout, physico-chemical property etc.；2. the operating pressure of equipment such as wharf apron petrochemical industry product handling ship equipment, petrochemical industry product transport line, petrochemical industry product storage tank and pump, temperature, flow velocity, use time, stop valve installation situation etc. every year；3. the security detection equipment of petrochemical pier platform, pipeline and tank field, the emergent emergency set such as pollution prevention device, fire-fighting equipment are equipped with situation, and emergent strength sets up situation；4. the personnel's distribution situation etc. inside and outside enterprise.
B) adopt the risk assessment pattern proposed, typical case petrochemical industry port district accident integrated risk is carried out district
Territory qualitative assessment and analysis
Main hazard source, identification port district；Based on the accident probability improved and consequence strength model, synchronize to calculate the overall probability of happening of the accidents such as fire, blast and leakage and the distribution of consequence intensity function；By the Mathematical treatment of cartesian grid method He " risk principle of stacking ", the risk compensation coefficient after introducing environmental risk assessment index and improving, it is thus achieved that the region quantitative result of typical case petrochemical industry port district accident integrated risk；In conjunction with acceptable standard, Risk Calculation result is estimated and analysis；Based on visualization technique and index staining integrated risk regional distribution chart of giving that accidents happened.
C) formation mechenism of petrochemical industry port district accident integrated risk, distribution characteristics and control measure research
Region qualitative assessment and analysis result based on accident integrated risk, and accident integrated risk regional distribution chart, analyzing and on the basis of contrast security risk and environmental risk formation mechenism and distribution characteristics, disclose comprehensive formation mechenism and the holistic distribution characteristics of fail-safe and environmental risk, propose the control measure of regional complex risk accordingly.This part achievement can provide theoretical foundation for the accident risk region prevention and control of this kind of special function zones, district, petrochemical industry port riverine, coastal, it is also possible to configure for petrochemical industry port region emergency capability, region security planning provides science to support with layout work.
The method of the present invention is the uniqueness for petrochemical industry port district accident risk, accident integrated risk region, the petrochemical industry port district quantitative evaluating method being of universal significance proposed, consider the risk compensation of emergent rescue capability, it is achieved that the comprehensive and quantitative assessment of fail-safe risk and environmental risk；Meanwhile, by accident Domino effect and Uncertainty Analysis Method, improve emphatically the accuracy of calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable and Consequence Simulation.In research category, by environmental risk assessment index being included in security risk quantitative evaluating method, improve the comprehensive and comprehensive of accident risk research；By including in risk compensation coefficient by society's emergency capability waterborne of the departments such as the emergency capability of enterprise self and maritime affairs, enhance specific aim and the practical significance of petrochemical industry port district accident risk research.In computation model, by Domino effect, synchronize to improve the probability calculation model of leakage, fire and blast these three accident pattern, improve the accuracy of probability calculation；Based on uncertainty analysis, it is thus achieved that the probability distribution of the processes such as fire, blast, Atmospheric Diffusion and water body diffusion, strengthen the representativeness of consequence strength Calculation Result.In practical application, by proposed method being applied to typical case petrochemical industry port district, it is possible to disclose comprehensive formation mechenism and the holistic distribution characteristics of fail-safe and environmental risk, propose the control measure of regional complex risk accordingly；Achievement in research can provide theoretical foundation for the accident risk region prevention and control of this kind of special function zones, district, petrochemical industry port riverine, coastal.In the long run, the Continual Improvement of methods of risk assessment and practical application contribute to strengthening the directive significance that risk prevention system is worked by risk assessment, and with layout work, the configuration of petrochemical industry port region emergency capability, region security planning are had good decision support effect.
In the various embodiments described above of the present invention, the sequence number of embodiment is merely convenient of description, does not represent the quality of embodiment.The description of each embodiment is all emphasized particularly on different fields, certain embodiment there is no the part described in detail, it is possible to referring to the associated description of other embodiments.
In the embodiments such as apparatus and method of the present invention, it is clear that each parts or each step reconfigure after can decomposing, combine and/or decomposing.These decompose and/or reconfigure the equivalents that should be regarded as the present invention.Simultaneously, herein above in the description of the specific embodiment of the invention, the feature described for a kind of embodiment and/or illustrate can use in one or more other embodiment in same or similar mode, combined with the feature in other embodiment, or substitute the feature in other embodiment.
It should be emphasized that term " include/comprise " refers to the existence of feature, key element, step or assembly herein when using, but it is not precluded from the existence of one or more further feature, key element, step or assembly or additional.
Although it is last it is noted that described the present invention and advantage thereof in detail above it should be appreciated that various change, replacement and conversion can be carried out when without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention being defined by the claims appended hereto.And, the scope of the present invention is not limited only to the specific embodiment of the process described by description, equipment, means, method and steps.One of ordinary skilled in the art will readily appreciate that from the disclosure, can use process, equipment, means, method or step that perform the function essentially identical to corresponding embodiment described herein or obtain the result essentially identical with it, that existing and future is to be developed according to the present invention.Therefore, appended claim is directed in their scope to include such process, equipment, means, method or step.
Claims (5)
1. accident risk region, district, petrochemical industry port quantitative evaluating method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
(1) accident integrated risk region, petrochemical industry port district qualitative assessment pattern is proposed；
(2) the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model improved is set up based on accident Domino effect；
(3) the consequence strength model improved is set up based on uncertainty analysis；
(4) formation mechenism and the holistic distribution characteristics of petrochemical industry port district accident risk are obtained according to the accident integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern revised, the calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable model of improvement and the consequence strength model of improvement, it is proposed to the control measure of petrochemical industry port district accident risk.
2. accident risk region, district, petrochemical industry port according to claim 1 quantitative evaluating method, it is characterised in that described step (1) including:
A) identification main hazard source
For self-contained unit, adopt and select numerical value S to identify main assessment of risks object；Computing formula is as follows:
In formula: L is that device arrives the distance considering location point, minimum for 100m；A weighs the instruction parameter that device is inherent disastrous, and T, F, E represent toxicant, combustible material and explosive substance respectively；
The specific formula for calculation of instruction parameter A is as follows:
In formula, Q is the quantity (kg) of chemicals in device；O1It it is the parameter characterizing storage device or process apparatus；O2It it is the parameter of characterization apparatus position；O3It is characterize the parameter of gaseous substance quantity after chemicals discharges；G is the ultimate value characterizing physical hazard characteristic；
B) qualitative assessment region security risk
Adopt individual risk (IR) and social risk (FN) carry out quantification area security risk as risk indicator；The computing formula of the individual risk that certain mesh point is total is as follows:
In formula, fsIt it is the probability of happening of event S；PMIt it is the probability of Meteorological Grade M；It it is wind directionProbability；PiIt it is the conditional probability of ignition event i；PdIt it is mesh point probability of death；
Social risk FNComputing formula as follows:
In formula, FdIt is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionCalculated coefficient of destruction when ignition event i；NcellIt it is the size of population in grid；It is at given event S, Meteorological Grade M, wind directionThe death toll that when ignition event i, all grids are total；FNIt is causeThe cumulative frequency of all events more than or equal to N；
C) introduce environmental risk assessment index, set up integrated risk region qualitative assessment pattern
Hydrodynamic model and water quality model is selected to carry out water pollution simulation；In conjunction with accident leakage Probability estimate accidents happened environmental risk, by the Mathematical treatment of cartesian grid method He " risk principle of stacking ", by itself and security risk estimation process matching, set up the region qualitative assessment pattern of accident integrated risk；
D) improve the quantization method of risk compensation coefficient, revise the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk
The penalty coefficient CP of existing Regional Risk value is made up of fire-fighting and rescue penalty coefficient FCP and medical aid penalty coefficient MCP two parts, and formula is as follows:
CP=FCP × MCP
Consider the active compensation effect to reducing damage sequence of society's emergency capability waterborne of the departments such as the emergency capability of petrochemical industry Transportation Enterprise self and maritime affairs on this basis, improve the definition of risk compensation, formula is converted into:
CP=WCP × LCP × CCP
In formula, WCP is society's water life-saving penalty coefficient；LCP is social land rescue penalty coefficient；CCP is enterprise self rescue penalty coefficient；
With reference to emergency management and rescue relevant regulations, and in conjunction with petrochemical industry port district emergency capability investigational data on the spot, it is determined that the concrete quantization method of above-mentioned penalty coefficient, improve the computational methods of risk compensation；Risk compensation coefficient is introduced the estimation mode proposed, and then revises the region qualitative assessment pattern of only consideration accident inherent risk；Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
RR=NR × CP
In formula, NR is region inherent risk value；CP is penalty coefficient；RR is region practical risk value.
3. accident risk region, district, petrochemical industry port according to claim 1 quantitative evaluating method, it is characterised in that described step (2) including:
A) identify and analyzed area domino accident topological relation
First the quadratic risk function accident of fire, the initiation of explosion accident Domino effect is filtered out；
Analyze the spread vector of each initial incident, and in conjunction with the Domino effect critical value standard of all kinds of spread vector, get final product the secondary target that initial option is possible；
Calculating the Extending probability of each secondary target, computing formula is as follows:
For heat radiation: Y=12.54-1.847ln (ttf)
For superpressure: Y=a+bln (Ps)
Wherein, Y is the Extending probability of initial incident；Ttf is the equipment failure time, and unit is s, and the equipment failure time depends on the volume of caloradiance and the target device acting on dissimilar target device；PsFor acting on the peak overpressure of target device, unit is kPa；A and b is the fitting coefficient corresponding with target device type, for instance for non-pressure vessel: a=-18.96；B=2.44；
Using quadratic risk function accident as initial incident, quadratic risk function accident identification flow process is adopted to identify tertiary air danger accident further；Same initial incident and its second accident, three accidents can constitute tree, form domino fault chains；If initial incidents multiple in region are considered simultaneously, then and then form region domino accident topological relation；
B) for fire, explosion accident, the probability calculation model improved is set up
The method adopting Monte Carlo stochastic sampling sets up probability calculation model for fire and explosion accident type, namely under abundant accident scene, each accident is repeatedly performed stochastic sampling, simulate the result of probability, secondary probability, three Probabilistic Synthesis effects, it is achieved the overall probability estimation of accident；
C) for leakage accident, the probability calculation model improved is set up
Based on the probability of fire or explosion accident with consider the overall probability after Domino effect, extrapolate the initiation probability of Domino effect；Assuming that the impact of secondary target fire or explosion accident probability is similar to by Domino effect is equal to its impact on secondary target leakage accident probability, in conjunction with leakage accident probability, derive the leakage accident probability of happening computation model of improvement, it is thus achieved that three kinds of accident patterns synchronize the probability calculation model improved.
4. accident risk region, district, petrochemical industry port according to claim 3 quantitative evaluating method, it is characterised in that described fire incident type includes pond fire, jet bubble reactor, fireball, scintillation etc., and spread vector is mainly heat radiation and flame contact；Explosion accident type includes machinery blast, limited blast, steam cloud blast etc., and spread vector is mainly positive pressure of shock wave and fragment.
5. accident risk region, district, petrochemical industry port according to claim 1 quantitative evaluating method, it is characterised in that described step (3) including:
A) risk variable is identified
For processes such as fire, blast, Atmospheric Diffusion, water body diffusions, it is considered to the open factor of model source code, it is determined that suitable consequence forecast model；
For each consequence forecast model, model of cognition needs the risk variable of input；
Risk variable is broadly divided into accident variable and meteorological variables；Accident variable mainly includes the key element of the sign accident characteristic such as leakage probability, leakage rate；Meteorological variables mainly includes the key element of the sign accident generation external conditions such as wind direction frequency, wind speed, temperature；
B) uncertainty of quantization signifying risk variable
The uncertainty of risk variable is characterized by corresponding probability density function；The probability density function of accident variable need to combine finding on the spot make mutually it will be assumed that；The probability density function of meteorological variables is obtained by weather data analysis over the years；For the feature of each risk variable, in conjunction with finding on the spot and calendar year statistics data, determine corresponding probability density function one by one, as the sample drawn of Monte Carlo Method；
C) the consequence strength model improved is set up
Adopt Monte Carlo Method, determine number realization N, utilizing random number stochastic sampling from the probability density function characterizing risk variable that computer automatically generates, obtain the N group input parameter set of Consequence Simulation prediction, each group of parameter set all represents certain special scenes；N group parameter set is inputted consequence forecast model, it is thus achieved that the probability density distribution of analog result and cumulative distribution function, as the important foundation of risk characterization.
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